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October 24, 2014 4:45 PM Day’s End and Weekend Watch

Had another work conference call with the techies, and my latest tentative post blew up when it was not quite so clear to me that Jeb Bush had really dissed Fox News. So I’m going to wrap it up.

Here are some remains of the day:

* Another school shooting in Seattle; two students have died, including the shooter.

* Islamic courts in Pakistan restricting women’s rights very rapidly.

* Ukraine holding very unpredictable elections on Sunday.

* At Ten Miles Square, Noah Feldman discusses another Sunday election, in Tunisia.

* At College Guide, Daniel Luzer argues the alarming plight of adjunct professors is important to higher ed’s future.

And in non-political news:

* Honey Boo Boo canceled.

That’s it for Friday. Martin Longman will be in tomorrow for Weekend Blogging. We’ll close with Mott the Hoople’s most famous song, written by David Bowie, “All the Young Dudes.”

Selah.

October 24, 2014 3:31 PM On Vetoes, Context is Everything

I happened to look back at the comment thread for Thursday’s Day’s End, and realized that the brief note about Obama’s very low veto record changing if Republicans take over the Senate got some derisive responses.

To be clear, I don’t think the number of presidential vetoes will rise because the president is any more or less likely to “grow a spine” or “fight back” or in any other way change his attitude. But in the event of a Republican takeover he won’t have Harry Reid and Democratic Committee Chairmen steadily burying House-passed legislation that would otherwise have provoked or at least invited a veto. Moreover, as Paul Waldman notes in the piece I was mentioning, Republicans will be eager with control of both chambers to get on the record with legislation they’ve promised to advance, at least early in the next session. So Obama could be passive, or lukewarm, or even fall back into his early rhetoric about bipartisanship, and he’d still almost certainly have to start issuing a lot more vetoes.

Now a variable in this dynamic will be the extent to which Senate Democrats in the minority will be willing to drop their regular complaints about the routine use of filibusters by the GOP on plain old legislation and begin doing the same thing themselves. Maybe they will, but I suspect given the positive prospects for a successful Democratic counterattack on Senate control in 2016, and the urgent need to retire the 60-vote requirement if Democrats hang onto the White House and retake Congress (but without 60 Senate votes), they’re more likely to use filibusters sparingly, particularly if the only reason to take a different tack is to protect a truly lame duck president from having to pick up his veto pen. And unless I missed something, I don’t recall Obama making his reluctance to veto obnoxious bills a big part of his “bipartisanship” pitch, even when it was a regular part of his rhetorical repertoire.

October 24, 2014 3:02 PM Question of Priorities for Campus Feminists

It’s been an abiding problem for reproductive rights advocates, albeit one with abundant silver linings, that the constitutional (and for the most part legal) status quo favors them. Thus gridlock on the subject theoretically entrenches legalized abortion. But it also means it’s easier to mobilize antichoicers politically; they’re the ones with an immediate grievance.

The latest surge of antichoice legislation in the states, aiming at a radical reduction of abortion providers and also a Supreme Court test of Roe v. Wade, has changed the dynamics significantly. But as Rachel Cohen (a former WaMo intern who’s now a writing fellow at the Prospect) points out, the campus-based feminists whom you’d expect to lead the fight against backsliding on abortion rights and contraception are strongest in states where the antichoice peril is less pressing. Many of them, moreover, are focused on the more immediate issue of sexual assault. But national women’s rights groups are beginning to invest resources in campus proejcts, and at some point, state-level threats to reproductive rights could make colleges and university the leading edge of pro-choice activism.

Check out Rachel’s full story.

October 24, 2014 1:55 PM Lunch Buffet

Another morning featuring a few drops of rain. Kinda spooky.

Here are some toasty-dry midday news/views treats:

* Litigation over voter registration applications allegedly deep-sixed by Georgia’s Republican Secretary of State could be a big deal with very close Senate and gubernatorial races in the state.

* South Dakota Senate debate focused an awful lot of Gov. Mike Rounds’ shaky supervision of the EB-5 visa program in the state (dubbed by critics “cash for citizenship”).

* Dems reportedly pressing The Big Dog to frame the party’s closing message for 2014, as he did in 2012.

* TPM’s Sahil Kapur does a pre-election autopsy of the “spectacular implosion” of Monica Wehby’s Senate campaign in Oregon.

* Fascinating insider account from Ottawa about preparations MPs made for hand-to-hand combat with shooter.

And in non-political news:

* James Fallow derives lessons from a tragic mid-air collision of a small plane and a helicopter hear the Frederick, MD airport.

As we break for lunch, here’s Mott the Hoople with the 1972 anthem “One of the Boys.”

October 24, 2014 1:31 PM The Limits of a Good Campaign

If Thom Tillis manages to beat Sen. Kay Hagan in NC on November 4, it will be a pretty good data point for political “fundamentalists” who think the actual quality of candidates and campaigns is of limited importance. That’s because just about everybody who’s not in spin mode thinks Hagan has done a much better job on the campaign trail than Tillis.

Indeed, as Alex Roarty suggests at National Journal, that’s a surprise, since Tillis himself looks and sounds just like a political consultant:

The 54-year-old looks like a political operative—fit, with closely trimmed white hair and a sports coat paired with jeans—and he talks like one, too. He’s the only Republican candidate in recent memory to declare that he wants to run the National Republican Senatorial Committee, and most who have watched his meteoric rise in the state Legislature (he was first elected there in only 2006) describe him as a political animal.
So it’s confusing that the story of his campaign would be one of strategic missteps, of struggling to build a cohesive case against his opponent. Only the last-month intrusion of the national political climate has given his candidacy hope.

Roarty also illustrates how the dumber aspects of that “national political climate” have intruded, obscuring an earlier debate over Tillis’ record of implementing what he’s called a “conservative revolution” in the legislature, particularly in terms of education policy and funding. Now media types aren’t interested in that substance crap any more:

Until a few weeks ago, this was Hagan’s secret sauce, the reason her campaign retained a slight lead while Senate Democratic candidates elsewhere wilted during the summer and early fall. The one-term senator had relentlessly focused on education funding in August and September, beating up on her GOP foe’s budget-cutting tenure like a boxer determined to methodically wear down her opponent with body blows…..
But a smattering of a few dozen students and journalists gathered to listen to Hagan had apparently heard enough. When the senator asked if the students seated in front of her—or the journalists milling behind them—had additional questions about her education agenda, nobody spoke. When an aide then asked the media if they had any questions on other topics, we nearly surrounded her.
Hagan tried to steer the discussion back toward education, but the questions focused elsewhere: Was she hypocritical to complain about outside-group money when some of them were backing her candidacy? Why was she not attending the debate later that night? And had she reversed herself last week when she said she supported a limited travel ban to Ebola-stricken countries?….
Journalists rarely ask the questions politicians want, no matter the situation. But the exchange neatly captured a shifting dynamic in North Carolina: Since the start of October, the issues at the contest’s forefront have moved from the local matters preferred by Team Hagan to the national topics, Ebola and ISIS, that have benefitted Republican candidates nationwide. And it’s created a sense that Tillis, whose own campaign has become a punching bag for Republicans critical of its efforts, could sneak through to a last-minute victory.

Roarty’s account is somewhat marred by the lack of recognition that U.S. Senators probably have less to do with Ebola and ISIS than with education, and that these “national topics” are mainly being raised to induce panic and fear rather than discussion. But in any event neither candidate could have anticipated the latest media obsessions, and how it might benefit a challenger like Tillis, who’s been railing at Hagan for every real or imagined shortcoming of the Obama administration for months:

“Whether it’s the IRS scandal, Benghazi, NSA, the Secret Service, it just really raises a question about this president’s ability to lead” [Tillis said].

And this campaign raises more than one question about a Senate candidate’s ability to do anything other than surfing the zeitgeist and hoping to be lifted by a “wave.”

October 24, 2014 12:52 PM Challenge To an Inflexible Policy

In the wake of the execution of journalist James Foley by Islamic State, there was obviously a lot of criticism of the Obama administration’s general attitude towards IS and its specific behavior in dealing with the group (particularly from conservatives who forever claim “weakness” is “emboldening” terrorists). But there wasn’t much criticism of the longstanding U.S. policy against “negotiating with terrorists” in hostage situations.

James Foley’s parents, John and Diane Foley, want to change that, or at least foster a discussion of a policy that most of our European allies don’t share. As Matt Vasilogambros explains at National Journal, the Foleys have set up a foundation in their son’s name to “start a conversation about changing the United States’ non-negotiation policy for kidnapping victims, or at least making it more consistent so that the Americans and British aren’t the ones who end up unrecovered.”

“We fear that there are going to be more kidnappings in the future—humanitarian workers, journalists, tourists in parts of the world that are dangerous,” Diane Foley told reporters on Thursday evening. “We really feel that American citizens need to be protected in this way and helped.”
The Foleys announced this new position at the annual Washington Oxi Day Foundation celebration, an event honoring the service of Greece during World War II. The organization gives awards to individuals who fight for democracy and freedom; it has previously honored Nobel Peace Prize winner Aung San Suu Kyi. James Foley was given the award posthumously on Thursday.

If a public discussion of the non-negotiation policy does occur, it will simply reflect doubts already expressed privately in high places. During their ordeal, the Foleys report, FBI agents made it reasonably clear they favored a more flexible posture. There should be an opportunity to talk about it without so worrying about “emboldening” potential hostage-takers that American policy itself is taken hostage, and Americans unnecessarily die.

October 24, 2014 11:18 AM Oregon’s Cannabis Legalization Initiative: One Step Forward

Probably no one in the country has been more outspoken and eloquent in simultaneously criticizing the cannabis prohibition status quo and arguing it’s very important how legalization is implemented than UCLA’s Mark Kleiman. You may recall his essay in the March/April 2014 issue of the Washington Monthly warning that the new legalized regimes in Colorado and Washington might not work as advertised, and calling for federal legislation to addresses some of state-based legalization’s pitfalls.

So now as Oregon voters deal with their own legalization initiative, placed on the ballot because the legislature would not act, Kleiman (at Ten Miles Squares) ponders the question of whether a poorly crafted initiative that forces the legislature to make improvements on it is better than doing nothing at all. He concludes taking a step forward with a “yes” vote is the right way to go, though not with some misgivings:

[T]he choice Oregon voters face isn’t between what’s on the ballot and some perfectly designed cannabis policy; it’s between what’s on the ballot and continued prohibition at the state level, until and unless a better initiative can be crafted, put before the voters, and passed into law.
Measure 91 would enact an ordinary law, not a constitutional amendment. If it passes, the legislature will be free to amend it the next day by a simple majority vote; such moves are allowed not only by law but by the conventions of Oregon politics.
So the question facing Oregonians who want adults to be able to buy cannabis legally - without the nonsense of finding a “kush doctor” and faking an ailment - is whether to defeat the proposition and hope that the legislature will act on its own (or that a better-drafted bill will appear on the ballot in 2016) or whether instead to pass the current proposition and hope that the legislature will move to fix what’s wrong with it.
Given the balance of political forces, it seems more reasonable to trust the legislature to rein in a too-lax legalization scheme than to expect it to do what no legislature in the nation has been willing to do yet: pass a full cannabis-legalization law.

Check it all out; it’s a good review course on Kleiman’s excellent advice on how to end cannabis prohibition.

October 24, 2014 10:55 AM Gang Warfare in the Senate

If you like to speculate about unlikely but fascinating political contingencies, Norm Ornstein’s piece at National Journal laying out the scenario of a bloc of independents (hypothetically Greg Orman, Angus King and Joe Manchin) seizing control of the Senate is just the ticket.

Ornstein seems most interested in the concessions this sort of group might wring from Mitch McConnell—presumably more interested in power than policy—on issues ranging from confirmations to gun regulation to immigration to campaign finance reform (!). Since the GOP House would prevent any of these heresies from actually becoming law, I suppose it’s possible Mitch would go along with symbolic sops to “centrists” in exchange for the keys to the Senate’s executive washrooms. Ornstein also plays with the idea some R and D Senators could join with the rebels to create some sort of super-gang dealing with a broader agenda, though again, that will cut zero ice in the House.

I suppose the most disappointing and ironic outcome would be an Orman victory that doesn’t get in the way of a Republican takeover, which would require him by his own pledge to caucus with said Republicans, right after half of them have trooped through Kansas calling him a godless stealth liberal and inveterate liar who has Harry Reid’s image tattooed on his posterior. That would, however, make for some fascinating small talk at the first Caucus meeting.

October 24, 2014 10:11 AM Spooked By Outsourcing

In a profile of Georgia’s gubernatorial and Senate races, the Weekly Standard’s Michael Warren says this about Republican David Perdue’s vulnerability on the subject of outsourcing, which his own words have made a crucial issue for Democrat Michelle Nunn:

Before my brief phone interview with Perdue, a campaign staffer called twice to confirm that I wouldn’t ask about the “outsourcing” comment. When I did, Perdue dismissed it as “right out of the Democratic playbook.”
“They’ve tried it since Day One,” he said. “It’s not sticking.”
The polls suggest otherwise. Only the most loyal Perdue Republicans still talk about winning outright on Election Day. More likely is that neither Perdue nor Nunn will win 50 percent of the vote (there’s a Libertarian party candidate running as well), and the race will proceed to a January 6 runoff. Republicans like their chances in the runoff, even with a flawed candidate.

Wow. Perdue won’t discuss the subject with a sympathetic reporter, and said reporter allows as how the GOP candidate is so “flawed” that only the low turnout patterns of a January runoff can save him. Yep, this “safe” Republican Senate seat where the safest possible candidate won the GOP nomination is looking mighty shaky.

October 24, 2014 9:34 AM The Experiment

The story of what has happened to the Republican Party in one of its strongest states, Kansas, is pretty familiar. But it’s told in a particularly evocative way by Rolling Stone’s Mark Binelli. His precis of how Sam Brownback made the state an experiment for the discredited fiscal theories of doddering supply-siders is an instant classic:

Back in 2011, Arthur Laffer, the Reagan-era godfather of supply-side economics, brought to Wichita by Brownback as a paid consultant, sounded like an exiled Marxist theoretician who’d lived to see a junta leader finally turn his words into deeds. “Brownback and his whole group there, it’s an amazing thing they’re doing,” Laffer gushed to The Washington Postthat December. “It’s a revolution in a cornfield.” Veteran Kansas political reporter John Gramlich, a more impartial observer, described Brownback as being in pursuit of “what may be the boldest agenda of any governor in the nation,” not only cutting taxes but also slashing spending on education, social services and the arts, and, later, privatizing the entire state Medicaid system. Brownback himself went around the country telling anyone who’d listen that Kansas could be seen as a sort of test case, in which unfettered libertarian economic policy could be held up and compared right alongside the socialistic overreach of the Obama administration, and may the best theory of government win. “We’ll see how it works,” he bragged on Morning Joe in 2012. “We’ll have a real live experiment.”
That word, “experiment,” has come to haunt Brownback as the data rolls in. The governor promised his “pro-growth tax policy” would act “like a shot of adrenaline in the heart of the Kansas economy,” but, instead, state revenues plummeted by nearly $700 million in a single fiscal year, both Moody’s and Standard & Poor’s downgraded the state’s credit rating, and job growth sagged behind all four of Kansas’ neighbors. Brownback wound up nixing a planned sales-tax cut to make up for some of the shortfall, but not before he’d enacted what his opponents call the largest cuts in education spending in the history of Kansas.

Brownback added political to fiscal risk by securing big bags of money from friends like the Koch Brothers and using it in a 2012 primary purge of moderate Republican state senators who didn’t support his fiscal plans. And it’s all blown up on him this year, with the shock waves potentially engulfing the state’s senior U.S. Senator. Binelli’s portrait of Pat Roberts as an “unloved Beltway mediocrity” who stands by trembling with fatigue as more famous and charismatic conservatives campaign to save his bacon is as acute as his portrayal of Brownback as a mad scientist whose lab has blown up.

Because of the nature of the state and the year and the outside (and inside, from the Kochs Wichita HQ) money flooding Kansas, Brownback and Roberts may survive—Brownback to preside over the damage he’s done to the state’s fiscal standing and schools, and Roberts to return to a final stage of his long nap in the Capitol. But both men have richly earned the trouble they are in, and you have to figure a lot of the people trying to save them have the occasional impulse to throw them anvils.

October 24, 2014 8:48 AM Daylight Video

It’s Mott the Hoople drummer Dale Griffin’s 66th birthday. Here’s the band performing “All the Way to Memphis” while a pretty good Knucklehead Zone video unreels.

October 23, 2014 5:48 PM Day’s End and Night Watch

Man, the twitterverse really exploded—initially pro, then angrily anti—at my tweets on Joni Ernst and the right to revolution, though in part that’s because my arguments became associated with those of Paul Begala, who suggested Ernst was being traitorous. As is generally the case, I avoided getting drawn into a twitter-war. Don’t have the time.

Here are some remains of the day:

* Conservative columnist calls for a secession of southern states who will form the new country of “Reagan.” Seriously.

* At the Prospect, Paul Waldman reminds us Barack Obama has issued fewest presidential vetoes since Millard Fillmore. That will change, a lot, if Republicans take over Senate.

* Charlie Pierce notes Stephen Harper quickly took advantage of yesterday’s shocking events on Parliament Hill to get in touch with his inner George W. Bush.

* At Ten Miles Square Rob Atkinson calls for new and less reflexive debate on trade policy.

* At College Guide, Daniel Luzer discusses the regressive effect of many lotteries-for-education programs.

And in non-political news:

* Well, one thing is sure to boost stock market: higher corporate profits.

That’s it for Thursday. Here’s one more fine Captain Beefheart performance, with his own personal twist on the whole Baby’s-Left-Me-On-A-Train tradition, “Click Clack.”

Selah.

October 23, 2014 5:24 PM Why the Focus on Late-Term Abortions?

In a long, long New Yorker piece on the antichoice Susan B. Anthony List and the contemporary politics of abortion, Kelefa Sanneh in passing succinctly identified the reasons why antichoicers have focused on the tiny percentage of abortions that occur after 20 weeks, which might seem to conceded a lot of ground in order to produce “wins” of dubious value:

While the other side talked broadly about “choice,” pro-life activists needed to talk more narrowly about the unpleasant details of abortion. This helps explain why the movement is targeting abortions performed after twenty weeks, which account for only one per cent of the total. If you believe, as [SBA List president Marjorie] Dannenfelser does, that a human being is created at the moment of fertilization, then a late-term abortion is no more tragic than any other. And it’s not clear that a twenty-week-old fetus is capable of feeling pain. The limit of twenty weeks was carefully chosen to be just short of viability, so that if the Supreme Court wants to uphold the law it will have to revise the regimen it created forty-one years ago.

So it’s all about undermining Roe—and also making themselves seem more reasonable than is the case when they’re talking about the full personhood of zygotes or discussing “legitimate rape.”

October 23, 2014 4:45 PM Diss Breitbart, Lose Your Senate Seat!

I don’t know about you, but I needed a good laugh this afternoon, and predictably got one at the Breitbart site, where there’s a screaming all-caps headline above a story wherein a reporter explains in incredibly detailed, turgid, Explosion-of-the-Hindenburg prose how he got kicked out of a Jeanne Shaheen event in New Hampshire.

For all I know, this action was indeed offensive and Wrong and worth bitching about. But the LOL moment was when said reporter got a NH GOP spox to help him blow up the whole thing into a Game-Changing event:

New Hampshire Republican Party chairwoman Jennifer Horn told Breitbart News that Shaheen’s campaign’s decision to kick out a congressionally credentialed Capitol Hill reporter is unacceptable and shows that she’s in trouble.
“Jeanne Shaheen has avoided town hall meetings with her constituents because she is desperate to avoid questions about her record of voting with President Obama 99% of the time,” Horn said in an email after Breitbart News described what happened. “Now she is avoiding reporters because she doesn’t want to answer questions about her disastrous debate performance. Shaheen continues to thumb her nose at New Hampshire’s tradition of open and honest government.”

Give me a break.

October 23, 2014 4:36 PM Paul-a-Palooza Set For Next Month

It’s not often that we get to find out in advance exactly when a candidate decides whether or not to run for president. But apparently all sorts of sources have told National Journal’s Shane Goldmacher exactly when and where advisers to Rand Paul will gather for a discussion of 2016. It’ll be in DC on November 12.

“This is the come-to-Jesus before the planned launch,” said one Paul insider, who has been invited to the gathering.
The meeting of the Kentucky Republican’s kitchen Cabinet has been kept under wraps [until now, I guess], with most of the invitees not even told who else will be there. Stafford has yet to circulate a formal agenda, though few on “Team Rand,” as [Paul “strategist” Doug] Stafford sometimes calls the group, need to be told the talks will focus on a presidential run.

As before, it appears Paul’s wife Kelley is the only person who can stop this runaway train.

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