Editore"s Note
Tilting at Windmills

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September 9, 2003
By: Kevin Drum

RECALL UPDATE....From the LA Times:

Former sports czar Peter V. Ueberroth canceled two morning radio interviews today and scheduled a 1 p.m. press conference at his Costa Mesa headquarters to "discuss the future" of his campaign.

Or should we say "lack of future"?

If Ueberroth does indeed pull out, the race will become even tighter than it is now. The latest Field poll shows Bustamante leading Schwarzenegger by 30% to 25%, and Ueberroth's 5% will probably mostly go to Arnold. Call it 3% to Arnold, 1% to Bustamante, and 1% to McClintock, if I had to guess.

The recall polls are all pretty unreliable apparently the pollsters are having a hard time figuring out the right weighting models and so forth but if we assume the Field poll is the best we have and then redistribute Ueberroth's votes, we get:

  • Bustamante: 31%

  • Schwarzenegger: 28%

  • McClintock: 14%

  • Everyone else: 9%

  • Undecided/No choice: 18%

That undecided vote is still pretty big, and Field doesn't give any indication of how those people are leaning. It's anybody's race.

UPDATE: Ueberroth has confirmed that he is pulling out of the race.

Kevin Drum 11:48 AM Permalink | Trackbacks

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