POLL UPDATE....The Rasmussen poll is performed daily but reported as a 3-day moving average. A couple of days ago Scott Rasmussen said that he thought Saturday's poll was an outlier that made Kerry look stronger than he really was, so the reported results should be taken with a grain of salt until Saturday's figures dropped out.
Today is the day, and the (now presumably accurate) results show Bush leading 48.2%-46.5%. Two comments:
Bush's lead of 1.7% is very small. This is definitely a dogfight.
Rasmussen reported that Bush had 47% of the vote before the convention. If this is accurate, it means that Bush's convention bounce was only about 1 point. That's pretty pathetic.
All the usual poll caveats apply, so don't take this too seriously. Overall, though, it's pretty good news for Kerry.
—Kevin Drum 12:30 PM
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