POLL MAGIC....Wow. I don't make a habit of following all the polls on a daily basis, but since I just got back from a (mostly) news-less weekend I thought I'd take a look to see how everyone's doing.
The LA Times shows a dead heat, 48%-48%. The Washington Post tracking poll has Kerry ahead 49%-48%. Rasmussen has Kerry ahead 48%-46%. I haven't looked at every poll out there, and I'm sure they aren't all this friendly toward Kerry, but it's staring to look like Kerry is finally starting to pull ahead after a couple of weeks of no gains.
In other words, it looks like the undecided voters are swinging toward Kerry by the 2:1 margin the conventional wisdom said they would. I have to admit I've been wondering whether things might be different this year thanks to terrorism worries, which might cause undecideds to break for the "safe" incumbent instead of the challenger, but apparently not. As usual, conventional wisdom really is the best bet.
—Kevin Drum 1:03 AM
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