The Washington Monthly

November 2, 2004

EXIT POLLS....The morning exit poll numbers are pretty favorable to Kerry:


	 AZ  CO  LA  PA  OH  FL  MI  NM  MN  WI  IA  NH
Kerry	 45  48  42  60  52  51  51  50  58  52  49  57
Bush	 55  51  57  40  48  48  47  48  40  43  49  41

Now, it may be that Democrats are just heavily motivated to get out and vote early this year, thus skewing the results, but on the other hand, Bush is ahead in the states where you'd expect him to be ahead. What's more, I remember being told during the primaries not to trust morning exit poll information, but most of the time they turned out to be pretty accurate.

So....cautious optimism seems called for from Kerry supporters, especially when you combine this with his seemingly big lead in the early voting. If this stuff holds up, it's going to be a big win for Kerry.

(But get out there and vote anyway!)

—Kevin Drum 3:14 PM Permalink | Trackbacks | Comments (0)

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