Editore"s Note
Tilting at Windmills

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January 30, 2005
By: Kevin Drum

IRAQI ELECTION BREAKDOWN....I just finished skimming through a bunch of reports on the Iraqi elections, and the current consensus seems to be that overall turnout was about 60% which is pretty good. Turnout appears to have been very high in Shiite and Kurdish areas and very low in Sunni areas.

But how high and how low? Here's my rough guess:

  • Shiite turnout: 70%

  • Kurdish turnout: 70%

  • Sunni turnout: 20%

(Based on an ethnic/religious makeup of 60% Shiite, 20% Kurd, and 20% Sunni, this adds up to a total turnout of 60%.)

If this is indeed how the turnout breaks down, and assuming that everyone votes for their own people, here's how the constitutional assembly will look:

  • Shiites: 70%

  • Kurds: 23%

  • Sunnis: 7%

I don't really have anything very compelling to say about this. I was just curious to see how the numbers were likely to break out and how marginalized the Sunnis would end up being. Obviously the answer is "pretty damn marginalized," but beyond that it's hard to say if it matters. The election is good news, but it's still security that's the real issue. It seems unlikely that anything has changed much on that score.

Kevin Drum 5:28 PM Permalink | Trackbacks

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