The Washington Monthly

February 4, 2005

EARLY ELECTION RESULTS FROM IRAQ....The New York Times reports that early returns in the Iraq vote show that the UIA, the Shiite slate dominated by religious groups, has won 72% of the vote so far, compared to 18% for Prime Minister Ayad Allawi's more secular Shiite coalition.

These results aren't meaningful on a broad basis because they come from strongly Shiite precincts. When the full vote is counted the Kurds will have a larger share than they do now, and possibly the Sunnis as well.

Still, the religious slate so far has won 80% of the Shiite vote. If that holds, and if Shiites win 70% of the overall vote, it means that the UIA will win about 56% of the total vote. If the Kurdish slate wins 23% of the vote (as I estimated here), a UIA/Kurd alliance would have a comfortable two-thirds majority all by itself and have no need for any further coalition.

I have no analysis to offer on what this means. I just thought I'd toss the numbers out.

—Kevin Drum 1:34 AM Permalink | Trackbacks

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