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December 12, 2005
By: Kevin Drum

OSIRAK REDUX?....Via Prof Bainbridge comes a London Times article suggesting that Ariel Sharon is getting ready to reprise the Israeli attack on Iraq's Osirak nuclear reactor in 1981:

Israel's armed forces have been ordered by Ariel Sharon, the prime minister, to be ready by the end of March for possible strikes on secret uranium enrichment sites in Iran, military sources have revealed.

The order came after Israeli intelligence warned the government that Iran was operating enrichment facilities, believed to be small and concealed in civilian locations.

....The order to prepare for a possible attack went through the Israeli defence ministry to the chief of staff. Sources inside special forces command confirmed that G readiness the highest stage for an operation was announced last week.

This strikes me as doubtful, and not just because everything I've read suggests that even the United States would have a hard time mounting an effective attack on Iran's nuclear facilities, let alone Israel. Rather, what are the odds that someone in the Israeli military would leak this news if they were genuinely planning something? Even the famously leaky U.S. military manages to keep stuff like this under wraps, and the Israeli military is not famously leaky. This kind of operational disclosure if genuine would be stunningly irresponsible, and it beggars belief that anyone highly placed enough to know about this would also be craven enough to reveal it. I assume it's a capital crime, for one thing. [UPDATE: Apparently not. But still an exceptionally serious one.]

So it must be an approved leak. But if that's the case, what's the point? Routine saber rattling? An attempt to panic the Iranians into doing something stupid? Misdirection? Something for domestic consumption?

Hard to say. But I'll bet the least likely alternative is that the Israelis genuinely have a plan to attack Iran in March.

Kevin Drum 1:12 PM Permalink | Trackbacks | Comments (10)

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While I'm not immersed in Israeli domestic politics, I'd like to suggest an alternative theory.

Perhaps this "leak" is designed by hawkish Likud sympathizers to undermine Sharon in the eyes of more liberal elements in Israel, as a means of thwarting his efforts to form a new party. Sharon has been leaning left lately. Wouldn't news of a military strike being planned reinforce Sharon's hawkish nature, souring the opinions of more moderate Israelis who have recently felt Sharon was moving towards their positions?

----------------------

As folks have already pointed out, Israeli elections are coming up, probably in March.

I for one don't think this is for "external consumption". The Israelis issue warnings about Iran's nuclear program pretty regularly, but they typically are not so specific.

Let's sum up what we know:

* The Iranians have been aware of the possibility
of an Israeli attack for years, so you can
count on Iranian sites being pretty
decentralized, and pretty well hardened. The
kind of attack that took out the Iraqi program
in 1981 just isn't possible. The Israelis
know this. So do the Iranians. You'd
have to do what the US is doing to Iraq: take
over the whole damn country. Ain't gonna
happen.

* Because of the above, any Israeli attack might
slow things down, but not stop the Iranian
program.

* The Likud just split, with Sharon forming
the centrist Kadima Party, which is made
up of Sharon, Peres, some pragmatic Likud
people and a few Labor hawks. The real
Israeli "dead enders", including Netanyahu,
are left in the Likud. For Sharon to form
the next government, he needs to take a
big chunk of the Likud's vote, so he needs
to look like a hard-ass.

* Israel has its own history of "October
Surprises". The possibility of Sharon
pulling something dramatic close to the
election has got to be on the minds of
both the new Labor Party leadership, and
that of the Likud. If either Labor or the
Likud can somehow prevent something funny
before the elections, they will.

* The Israeli Defence Forces contain a pretty
representative slice of the electorate as a
whole, and whatever party wins in March,
some group of generals will be annoyed. This
makes it relatively hard to use the IDF
for one party or the other, since all of the
major parties contain former IDF officers. So
the army will not like being used by anyone,
unless they believe national security (and not
Israeli politics) is what's driving a mission.

These are the basic facts. So now the speculation:

1) Sharon leaks this to demoralize the Likud.
2) Pro-Labor or Pro-Likud people leak the story
to prevent Sharon from doing anything before
the election.
3) The government leaks this to encourage the
Iranian president to keep his mouth shut
until after the Israeli elections.
4) Sharon indeed intends to do some kind of
strike on Iran, which would be small and
basically symbolic.

I think there's virtually no chance of (4), since
it will create problems for Israeli's policy on
Iran: the best outcome is for the Israelis to prod the Europeans or the Russians into mediating limits on Iran's program. To do this, the threat of striking Iran is much better than actually doing it.

I'd say some combination of 1, 2 or 3 are very likely, since the pattern would fit with previous Israeli behavior during elections.

Posted by: Ye Old Ecojew on December 13, 2005 at 1:25 AM | PERMALINK

Capital punishment for treason IS on the books in Israel (sec. 97-99 of the Penal Law). Only one execution has ever been carried out, however, against Adolf Eichmann for genocide etc.

Posted by: Aaron on December 13, 2005 at 2:33 AM | PERMALINK

Thanks for at least looking at the book, Pale Rider. Did you notice it actually has a liberal point of view? One can not but help sympathize with lower-income people in the present legal climate. They are most often the victims of violence, then become victims of solutions that the law-making elites have not thought through at all.

I also appreciat ecojew's analysis of what the blustering of an Israeli attack on Iran is all about. One possibility is that some Israelis know that the last thing that the U.S. wants is an Israeli attack on Iran. Therefore, to pre-empt such rash action, the U.S. might be inclined to undertake the attack itself.

That reasoning seems Byzantine, but not with Iraq winding down and Dubya in office for three more years. Pretty soon Bush will again have a lot of military power available in search of a mission.

Posted by: Michael L. Cook on December 13, 2005 at 11:13 AM | PERMALINK

"The Iranians have been aware of the possibility
of an Israeli attack for years, so you can
count on Iranian sites being pretty
decentralized, and pretty well hardened."

There is a single point target; a gas centrifuge uranium enrichment facility near the town of Natanz. Israel could easily deliver pinpoint, thousand pound bunker busters from an off shore sub.

Israel has adapted it's IDF, under Sharon, to work strategic issues, since the threat of a major conventional war has diminished. It has been working the problem for years, investing much.

Remember too, the Iranian president recently declared war against Israel, as some might interpret his remarks. In fact, I think Iran is technically at war with Israel. Israel could just delcare war in return, and kill the guy, or at least continually throw bunker busters at him until he wises up.

Consider the cost. Israel with a 50 billion dollar IDF, so something like that, could easily toss four of five cruise missiles at 10 million each.

I would tell Israel, go ahead. The next time that little megalomanic spouts his "wipe Israel" speach, just bomb him. There is no international law against blowing the leader of of a nation at war with you.

Posted by: Matt on December 13, 2005 at 11:17 AM | PERMALINK

"Why strengthen the hand of the hard-liners [in Iran]? "

Why not strengthen their hand? Israel has no apriori reason to favor Iranian society, except for the standard reason of stability. And, if you make war, you want Iran unstable.

Iranian hardliners would be less capable of war with Israel, because they are more likley to make bad strategic decisions, as is happening now.

Iranian hardliners have two tools: Special forces, and war mobilization. Considerating the tactics of the Mullahs in the Iran/Iraq war, no one fears Iranian mobilization. The effort would no doubt ruin the economy in short order.

Their special forces have been dealt with by Israel continually for 20 years, mostly in the war with Hezbollah proxy. Israel can handle these guys.

The other objection, that a Shiite Iran could gain war sympathy from the Arabs is nonsense. I think the Araps would likely give Israel recognition if Israel destroyed the Iranian government.

Actually Israel has one other problem. They get a benefit from doing nothing. The stronger Iran is, the closer the Arabs get to peace with Israel, because in the final analysis, the only force available to hold back Iranian hegemony is Israel, and the Arabs know that.

I pointed this out at the start of the Iraq war. A strong, Iranian supported Shiite government in Iraq would drive the Arabs closer to Israel, and the reaction to the latest comments from Iran, among the Arab leaders, shows this. Arab government spokeman criticized Iran for letting these anti-Israel comments go. The Palestinian president has been complaining for months about Iranian anti-Israel comments. We see a subtle, not too dramatic shift, a closer cooperation between Arabs and Israel, to offset Iran.

Posted by: Matt on December 13, 2005 at 11:48 AM | PERMALINK

Kevin, please fix typo on link, it's very jarring. (Iran, not Iraq, no?)

Posted by: drainpipe on December 13, 2005 at 1:33 PM | PERMALINK

It was Isreal's lack of concern about Iraq, the apparent lack of urgency toward the threat that Saddam posed in 2002, that convinced me that Saddam didn't have WMD, didn't represent a gathering threat to his neighbors, and was generally neutered by Dessert Storm I, the sanctions and subsequent inspections. Isreal is the proverbial canary in the coal mine. There silence or concern is the ultimate clue about the region. The fact that Bush and the neocons blew right past that fact always raised a red flag.

Posted by: fcadmus on December 13, 2005 at 6:03 PM | PERMALINK

It is arguable that any nation that has more than three or four dozen nukes in dispersed, secret locations, does not have to fear a nuclear newcomer like Iran. Israel or the U.S. can discourage terrorist nuclear attacks by implying a policy of unilaterally assured destruction. The terror attack wouldn't trigger mutually assured destruction, because it wouldn't kill everyone in the targeted nation. But the retaliation might, i.e. unilaterally assured destruction.
Of course, it will be helpful to know the isotope blend that is the signature of the Iranian nuclear material.

Posted by: Michael L. Cook on December 13, 2005 at 9:34 PM | PERMALINK

Israel is not going to attack Iran, Israel never launches the first move. They have never gone on the offensive, all of the wars have been responses to terrorism and invasion.

Posted by: Rama on December 14, 2005 at 9:35 AM | PERMALINK

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