Editore"s Note
Tilting at Windmills

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January 18, 2006
By: Kevin Drum

KURO WEDNESDAY?....What the hell?

Investors spooked by a raid on an Internet company and weaker U.S. tech earners dumped Japanese shares Wednesday, sending the Nikkei plunging and prompting the Tokyo Stock Exchange to suspend trading on the world's second-largest market.

The TSE halted all trade 20 minutes early at 2:40 p.m. (0540 GMT), as the number of trades neared the 4-million capacity limit of the exchange.

....The massive selling on Wednesday came as investors became nervous over an investigation into Japanese Internet company Livedoor, allied to weaker than expected results from Intel and Yahoo in the United States.

The TSE's technical problems are one thing, but the proximate cause of Wednesday's massive selloff is quite another. Livedoor may be a typically overpriced dotcom with an unsustainable market cap, but it's still not that big a company. Is the Japanese stock market really so jittery that the mere prospect of problems at a smallish company like Livedoor can send it into a panic?

Kevin Drum 1:31 AM Permalink | Trackbacks | Comments (31)

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I wonder what kind of total trading dollar volume that represents. I know that Nikkei stocks typically have much higher prices than US stocks.

But nonetheless, 4 million trades? That's probably not much money moving around compared to an average day in the dow. Anyone know if that's true or not?

Posted by: luke on January 18, 2006 at 1:47 AM | PERMALINK

The fact that newspaper writers are able to come up with causes for the random gyrations of the stock market is one of the biggest factors that lets me ignore news analysis in general (especially their interpretation of election results). They make up some storyline, apply a metaphor, and pretend it explains all the autodeposits, program trades, market timing, and millions of other transactions that caused the market to go "up" or "down." It's all ad hoc. They just can't accept the fact of a random walk.

Posted by: Noumenon on January 18, 2006 at 1:48 AM | PERMALINK

They just can't accept the fact of a random walk.

Yeah, but usually selloffs of this size DO have an "explanation", at least in the sense that the people doing the selling are themselves motivated by an identified reason.

The reason itself, though, may for all practical purposes be random.

Posted by: frankly0 on January 18, 2006 at 2:00 AM | PERMALINK

In a word, "Yes".

The Nikkei 225 has risen over 40% in the last year and is therefore ripe for a bit of panic selling, and the Tokyo Exchange has suffered from numerous technical glitches over the past twelve months which has shaken confidence in its ability to successfully process trades in a timely fashion.

Japan was already due for a bit of a correction given its run-up over the past year, and after getting burned so many times in the past, investors now tend to sell first and ask questions later in order to protect their capital.

Anyway a 6% percent decline over two days is not really that big in a market which has had a 40% run-up over twelve months. Commodities markets such as oil and precious metals see these types of corrections and this type of volatility all the time.

For example, many energy-related equities corrected 10-12% over three trading days from October 3-6 last year, and precious metals equties saw corrections of 7-9% from Ocotber 17-20 last year, as well as a 8-10% one week correction in May 2005, a 3-day 7% correction in April 2005, and another 3-day 7% correction in March last year.

Posted by: MattW on January 18, 2006 at 2:00 AM | PERMALINK

Let's see what happens when Wall St. opens in a few hours. The expectations game is fascinating to watch, from the safe vantage of the sidelines. The Yahoo story is just the latest:

"Yahoo Inc., the world's largest media company, on Tuesday posted disappointing earnings that reflected higher operating costs, sending its shares tumbling 13 percent."

Truth is, Yahoo's revenues grew from $1.1B in 4Q 04 to $1.5B in 4Q 05, and profit grew 83% from $373M to $683M. Its sin was its $.16 per share profit was a penny short of analysts' predictions.

In markets we trust, but it seems to me that euphoria and panic rule the day, and the search for rational behavior is about as likely from Wall St. as it is from the White House.

This is a nervous time to be in equities, if you ask me.

Posted by: JJF on January 18, 2006 at 2:09 AM | PERMALINK

Shit like this is the result of the implication that other listed company accounts are also weak 'cos the regulatory environment is weak.

Posted by: McA on January 18, 2006 at 2:09 AM | PERMALINK

luke, that was my reaction, too. 4 million trades a day?!? I'm guessing it's 4 actually billion, though. Here's a page that mentions 1.5 *billion* trades per day as an average amount on the TSE (no idea how old the page is):

http://www.advfn.com/StockExchanges/about/TSE/TokyoStockExchange.html

And here's one that lists 1.6 billion for the NYSE:

http://www.internetnews.com/bus-news/article.php/3447741

So a limit of 4 billion per day seems more likely.

Posted by: Dude on January 18, 2006 at 4:04 AM | PERMALINK

Glad to see I wasn't the only one wondering about this. Or maybe not...after reading the other day about China maybe dumping hundred of billions of US dollars, these economic jitters are more worrying.

Posted by: KathyF on January 18, 2006 at 4:05 AM | PERMALINK

I am still trying to figure out why the massive fuss myself, but reading between the lines of the Japanese press, there are two things that investors there may be worried about: Enron and Khodorkhovsky
In other words, the darling of the New Japan may turn out to be a fraud (and that sends us back to the Old Japan and the stagnation of the last 15 years) or it may be a hit job by the old line bureaucrats (and that sends us back to the Old Japan ...)
which gets us to the key factor. Japan _seems_ to have start a genuine recovery and the possible fall of this very symbolic company raises doubts about that entire recovery.
Also remember that Japan is so much more uniform and concentrated (and less transparent) than America that market moods can become much more extreme and much faster.

Posted by: Kevin Rooney on January 18, 2006 at 4:19 AM | PERMALINK

About the "million" vs. "billion".
It is definitely "million". I doublechecked in the Japanese-language press.
4 million in Japanese is "400 man" and
4 billion is "40 oku", so this is not easy to mix up in Japanese.

Posted by: Kevin Rooney on January 18, 2006 at 4:24 AM | PERMALINK

A lot of momentum investors including hedge funds bought into the Nikkei in the second half of last year. Now the momentum has turned and they're all running for the door at the same time.

Posted by: a on January 18, 2006 at 4:28 AM | PERMALINK

who knows, but i have a bad feeling about the world markets. we may have seen the highs for the year.

Posted by: Jones on January 18, 2006 at 4:31 AM | PERMALINK

I work at a investment bank in Tokyo and Kevin Rooney nails it.

hit job by the old line bureaucrats

Sasaki-san, was too in your face. He just didnt want to succeed, he wanted insult everyone doing it. He was stupid and then they just piled on. The blood in the water triggered some other panic selling.

Posted by: Hubris.Sonic on January 18, 2006 at 5:34 AM | PERMALINK

The 1.6 billion trades on the NYSE is in error. It should be "shares."

Posted by: Daryl Cobranchi on January 18, 2006 at 5:34 AM | PERMALINK

Do any of you know a way to buy options on the TSE, i.e., an equivalent, more or less, to options on the DIA and QQQQ in the US?

Posted by: Jones on January 18, 2006 at 5:44 AM | PERMALINK

OK, now you've got me worried about China. First they announce they won't buy T-bills, maybe are going to dump the dollars they do hold (millions of tons of them) the little jerks in Iran are getting feistier, and Dear Leader from nuclear client state number one flew to Peking for an emergency meeting.

During the Balkan wars, Bill Clinton muddled through it by basically doing everything the Germans wanted (and not asking much in return except for them to lay off the Scientologists.)

Perhaps this would be a good time for the Bush administration to do everything the Japanese government wants. The primary reason I recommend this course is because America absolutely needs a strong, independent Japan in Asia. The Japanese are re-arming like crazy and, of course, they quietly have built their own nuke warheads and delivery systems. We also need to protect South Korea and Taiwan, whose fates I suspect are tied together. . .if for no other reason but that any sane enemy would see that they are attacked simultaneously, greatly reducing the U.S. options of responding effectively either place.

Posted by: Michael L. Cook on January 18, 2006 at 10:09 AM | PERMALINK

Within six to eighteen months after Greenspan steps down we will see the NYSE suspend trading, too. Capitalist free marketers are happy to see the market enrich without regulation, but they insist on intervention when the market diminishes wealth.

Posted by: Powerpuff on January 18, 2006 at 10:37 AM | PERMALINK

the sell off yesterday was mainly Livedoor stock. at least the news reports on the tokyo TV stations this evening (wednesday) are saying that there was concern that other internet/high tech companies might have similar accounting problems to what seems to be the case with Livedoor. but livedoor's always been essentially an M&A shell. they issue stock, split stock, take out loans, and use the proceeds to buy up other companies and then issue more stock, split stock, take out more loans to buy more companies to cover their ever accumulating debt.

Posted by: slb on January 18, 2006 at 10:43 AM | PERMALINK

Japan was already due for a bit of a correction...

Not to pick on the poster, but I just love this language. Honestly, when is any market movement not a movement in the right direction?

If the average goes up, then the "market is reflecting the value reaped by businesses" and if it goes down, then it's also "reflecting the value". It's Newspeak because there is no way to express a market condition that isn't perfect or at least on it's way to being perfect.

Posted by: Dr. Morpheus on January 18, 2006 at 11:01 AM | PERMALINK

I would bolster the long-term confidence of the Japanese by developing ANWR and promising that Japan gets all the oil. They are the closest major consumer so that makes economic sense.

Moreover, the U.S.A. absolutely needs a strong, confident Japan.

Posted by: Michael L. Cook on January 18, 2006 at 11:06 AM | PERMALINK

The poster is right: the press always adds a reason that the market went this way or that. And almost always it's BS.

The second point is that Japan is very jumpy. There population is starting to decline and the birthrate doesn't show any signs of picking up. They don't want immigration - so that means a rapidly aging population. I would also guess that it means that their property values will not recover, since the demand isn't there.

And that's what's worrying on the international scene - every major power has glaring weaknesses. US - fiscal, Japan and Europe - birthrates, China - pollution, India - caste system, etc. Each has major strengthens too, but there is a lot of potential instability out there, and it's easy to paint a not so rosy outcome from another panic like Mexico or Asia.

Posted by: Samuel Knight on January 18, 2006 at 11:18 AM | PERMALINK

I'm reading the story on Bloomberg right now and it says 4 million trades. This could possibly be any number of shares, but the 4 million number is in more than one place.

Posted by: GAB on January 18, 2006 at 11:31 AM | PERMALINK

As has been mentioned previously, the problem in this case is Livedoor, which Old Japan, both politically and economically, see as a threat. Livedoor has attempted things like hostile takeovers and other political moves that are "not the way things are done" to the old-line way of thinking. So in a move that would make Putin smile, they just pull the door on it. What we are witnessing is a struggle for the soul of Japanese business. Expect this struggle to not go away as a new age group of investors and employees move into positions of control and power throughout Japan. In politics, the nationalistic and pro-business urban young are revolting against the more liberal rural ways of the previous generations. There is a sea change going on and Livedoor is one incarnation of this change.

Posted by: DC1974 on January 18, 2006 at 11:52 AM | PERMALINK

Samuel Knight: another panic like Mexico or Asia

IIRC both involved currency crashes, which as usual were related to current account deficits. For 2005 our CAD is 6.5%/GDP. Thailand and other countries usually crashed at about 7%.

Being the world's reserve currency, and having foreign debt denominated in our own currency, we might have more leeway. However, our CAD has been growing every year and shows no sign of stopping.

Unless you believe in "dark matter" (no relation to the reality based field of astrophysics) or the tooth fairy, this is not good news.

Posted by: alex on January 18, 2006 at 11:56 AM | PERMALINK

someone wrote:

"Japan was already due for a bit of a correction..."


Dr Morpheus wonders:

"Not to pick on the poster, but I just love this language. Honestly, when is any market movement not a movement in the right direction?

If the average goes up, then the "market is reflecting the value reaped by businesses" and if it goes down, then it's also "reflecting the value". It's Newspeak because there is no way to express a market condition that isn't perfect or at least on it's way to being perfect."

Posted by: Dr. Morpheus on January 18, 2006 at 11:01 AM | PERMALINK


I'm certain that originally 'correction' referred to a return of the stock's price to a level reflecting the value of the company (perhaps book value times some other time factor). Nowadays I think it generally means a downturn after a significant or long-term-ish gain.

Let me posit a correlary which might be interesting:

We often talk about the natural arc of the life of something, a flower, a person, a company, a nation or civilization. Do we speak of a correction in terms of any of these except a company's stock? What if someone said, "America has had a long successful run and now it may be time for a major correction." Would you think they were loony? Why is that the way with company stock? It's because we have investors and speculators who essentially decide the value of the company. Nobody decides the value of a country. But, what if they did? Isn't this current outsourcing of all labor to low-wage countries a kind of devaluing of America, a correction? What if the "owners" of America decide it has matured and there isn't much more growth to be had *and* that they can 'invest' in other regions like India or China to really make it big? How do they 'sell' their American 'stock'? What would happen to those left behind?

Is that what we're currently experiencing in America, a correction?

Would the change from dollars to euros force a faster adjustment? Would China letting it's yuan float force an adjustment? What key event(s) would cause all Hell to break loose? If a correction of such a modest company in Japan causes so much angst, then it certainly wouldn't take much to send a very large wave of angst throughout the Western economic world.

Posted by: MarkH on January 18, 2006 at 12:14 PM | PERMALINK

Is the Japanese stock market really so jittery that the mere prospect of problems at a smallish company like Livedoor can send it into a panic?

Intel's disappointing earnings may have added fuel to the fire.

Posted by: bob h on January 18, 2006 at 3:21 PM | PERMALINK

Eh, the Livedoor embroglio has more to do with catfighting between the "old" and the "new" parts of Japan--plus the TSE has had other problems for quite a while. International companies have been delisting and going elsewhere in Asia, fed up with the regulations, the cost of listing, and the backwards IT.

Now, if the Nikkei STAYS down, I'd worry more. From what I've seen in Japan, we're still getting continuous slow growth. Yeah, we've got the aging population problem which will continue until the culture changes and makes it easiers for women to have kids and still work. (Now the problem is that women don't want to get married--heh.) And the LDP hasn't helped matters by its fulmination by the old geezers. The women have been voting with their feet for years and I don't see that stopping.

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, By Province or Territory , By Region , Classifieds
Canada
, Computers and Internet , Construction and Maintenance , Directories
Canada
, Employment
Canada
, Event Planning , Financial
Services Canada
, Home and Garden , Industries
canada
, Legal
Services Canada
, Marine Sales and Services , Organizations , Printing ,
Real
Estate Canada
, Restaurants and Bars , Services , Shipping, Storage, and
Logistics , Shopping
Canada
, Telecommunications
Canada
, Travel
Guides Canada
, Travel
Services Canada
. Also you could find by regions: Alberta,
New
Brunswick
, Newfoundland,
Labrador,
Nova Scotia,
Nunavut, Ontario,
Prince
Edward Island
, Saskatchewan.


Business directory provides valuable
information about businesses wordwide, categorized by Accounting,
Agriculture
and Forestry
, Arts
and Entertainment
, Automotive,
Biotechnology
and Pharmaceuticals
, Business
Services
, Chemicals,
Construction
and Maintenance
, Consumer
Goods and Services
, Cooperatives,
Customer
Service
, e-Commerce,
Education
and Training
, Electronics
and Electrical
, Employment,
Energy
and Environment
, Financial
Services
, Food
and Related Products
, Healthcare,
Human
Resources
, Industrial
Goods and Services
, Information
Technology
, International
Business and Trade
, Investing,
Major
Companies
, Management,
Marketing
and Advertising
, Mining
and Drilling
, Opportunities,
Publishing
and Printing
, Real
Estate
, Retail
Trade
, Small
Business
, Telecommunications,
Textiles
and Nonwovens
, Transportation
and Logistics
, Wholesale
Trade
, Advertising
, Associations
, Branding
, By
Age Group
, By
Ethnic or Cultural Focus
, By
Industry
, Conferences
, Consulting
, Direct
Marketing
, Education
and Training
, Employment
, Internet
Marketing
, Market
Research
, Marketing
Support Services
, Micromarketing
, News
and Media
, Public
Relations
, Relationship
Marketing
, Salesmanship
, Telemarketing
, Associations
, Automobile
Buying and Financing
, Banking
Services
, By
Region
, Cash
Flow
, College
Financing
, Commercial
Lending
, Computer
Financing
, Cooperatives
, Credit
and Collection
, Directories
, Education
and Training
, Employment
, Field
Service Companies
, Financial
Consultants
, Financial
Planning
, Freelancer-Contractor
Services
, Holding
Companies
, Information
Services
, Insurance
, Investment
Banks
, Investment
Services
, Leasing
Services
, Loans
, Marketing
and Advertising
, Medical
Billing
, Merchant
Services
, Mortgages,
News
and Media
, Offshore
Services
, Payroll
Services
, Surety
Bonds
, US
Government Financial Sites
, Venture
Capital
, Associations , Circuit Protection , Commercial and Industrial
Products , Components , Consumer Products , Contract Manufacturing , Control
Systems , Directories , Education and Training , Electromechanical , Employment
, Engineering , Heating and Cooling , Human Interfaces , Import and Export ,
Instrumentation , Manufacturers Representatives , News and Media , Optoelectronics
and Fiber , Power Supplies , Production Equipment and Materials , Repair and
Service , Safety and Compliance Testing , Standards and Codes , Substation and
Transmission , Surge Protectors , Test and Measurement , Tools and Equipment,
Transformers and Inductors , Wholesale and Distribution , Wiring and Accessories
, Property
Management
, Agents and Agencies , Appraisal , Associations , By Region ,
Commercial , Conferences , Consulting , Development , Directories , Education
and Training , Employment , Inspection , Legal , Marketing and Advertising ,
News and Media , Property Management , Residential , Undeveloped or Vacant ,
International
Business Associations
, Barter
, International
Business Conferences
, International
Business Consulting
, International
Business Directories
, Import
and Export
, International
Organization for Standardization - ISO
, International
Taxation
, International
Business Services

Posted by: directory on January 21, 2006 at 8:06 PM | PERMALINK




 

 

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