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Tilting at Windmills

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January 24, 2006
By: Kevin Drum

QUADRENNIAL REVIEW....The Pentagon is nearly finished with its latest quadrennial review, and I'm not sure if this is good news or bad:

While some new lessons will be incorporated into the Pentagon review, the spending blueprint for the next four years will largely stick to the script Pentagon officials wrote before the Iraq war, according to those familiar with the nearly final document that will be presented to Congress in early February.

Iraq "is clearly a one-off," said a Pentagon official who is working on the top-to-bottom study, known as the Quadrennial Defense Review. "There is certainly no intention to do it again."

In one sense, I'm glad to hear that the military doesn't really want to occupy another country anytime in the near future. On the other hand, given the realities of what's going on in Iraq, Iran, Pakistan, and Afghanistan, it hardly seems wise to pretend that it's never going to happen again, does it? It sounds like 9/11 changed everything except the United States military.

Kevin Drum 12:28 PM Permalink | Trackbacks | Comments (71)

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Comments

"There is certainly no intention to do it again."

Isn't this treason, or hurting the War on Terror, or some damn thing? I mean, aren't we supposed to be threatening everyone with our mighty wrath and all that?

Why does the Pentagon hate the President?

Posted by: craigie on January 24, 2006 at 12:31 PM | PERMALINK


Mr Drum: It must be most entertaining for you to always critize everything. I read you and I see you always complain on how the Bush people do things.
If you were in charge of the US Military which has many million people in it, it is not so easy to come up with a good easy plan for everything.

I think the US Military does excellent jobs all over the world and they do more for good lives for people than you do.

Posted by: Emilio Zegna on January 24, 2006 at 12:32 PM | PERMALINK

Kevin quotes the LA Times: "the spending blueprint for the next four years will largely stick to the script Pentagon officials wrote before the Iraq war"

The purpose of US military spending is not the national defense of the USA. The purpose of US military spending is to enrich the so-called "defense" corporations. That "spending blueprint" will never change.

Posted by: SecularAnimist on January 24, 2006 at 12:34 PM | PERMALINK

So much for the latest neocon talk about attacking Iran then.

Posted by: David W. on January 24, 2006 at 12:34 PM | PERMALINK

They do more for bad lives, too, Emilio.

Posted by: Ace Franze on January 24, 2006 at 12:38 PM | PERMALINK

Emilo where you in this Country when Bill Clinton was Preident? This is nothing compared to the treament that was given to Bill Clinton,So if you can stand the heat get out of the kitchen.

Posted by: pssst on January 24, 2006 at 12:38 PM | PERMALINK

David W wrote: So much for the latest neocon talk about attacking Iran then.

"Attacking" is not synonymous with "invading and occupying". Most of the "neocon talk about attacking Iran" that I've heard of seems to focus on bombing. For that matter, the US war in Iraq is increasingly becoming a bombing war, which tends to decrease US deaths while dramatically increasing Iraqi deaths, particularly innocent civilian deaths.

Posted by: SecularAnimist on January 24, 2006 at 12:39 PM | PERMALINK

Kevin,
I eagerly await your post calling for more money to be spent on defense. Let it rip.

Posted by: Chris on January 24, 2006 at 12:40 PM | PERMALINK

Clearly, the uniformed brass in The Building have concluded they don't do aysymetrical 4th-generation warfare very well, so they're not going to play in that sandbox. Too bad that happens to be the only sandbox available in which our uniformed chiefs can play. This decision confirms that the next action the playahs in The Building endorse will be yet another disaster. They will need to hope that they'll be committed again against a nation like Grenada, the Andaman Islands, or, better yet, Grand Fenwick.

Posted by: PrahaPartizan on January 24, 2006 at 12:46 PM | PERMALINK

The armed forces are being slowly gound to powder in Iraq; equipment is wearing out, and the personnel (who in other circumstances might have wanted to make a career in the military) are being burned out when they aren't being shot up. Iraq is a one-off because they won't have the wherewithal to do it again, and any attempt to try it would completely ruin whatever military assets are still left.

Talk about anything other than airstrikes in Iran is just empty saber-rattling.

Posted by: jimBOB on January 24, 2006 at 12:46 PM | PERMALINK

Are you sure he doesn't mean invading Iraq again?

Posted by: McA on January 24, 2006 at 12:48 PM | PERMALINK


Mr. Ace Franze :
I do not write comments before, but I am sure that if you ask people who do you want to help you in your country: US Military or Mr. Ace Franze, a big majority would ask for US Military.

Posted by: Emilio Zegna on January 24, 2006 at 12:53 PM | PERMALINK

I read somewhere that the Iranianis had learned from the Israeli attack on Iraq's nuclear program in the 80's. Most of their facilities are underground. If that's really the case, then your options are nukes or boots on the ground. So what are the neocons and Bush really thinking?

Posted by: tomeck on January 24, 2006 at 12:54 PM | PERMALINK

I'd ask Mr. Ace Franze.

The military is busy elsewhere.

Posted by: Matt on January 24, 2006 at 12:55 PM | PERMALINK

No McA it's plan 43 the combined ground sea air assault on Malayasia a known hot bed of Muslim extremisn according to some the number one exporter of wahabi islamfascistismers. The true hub of the axis of evil.

Posted by: pig tucker on January 24, 2006 at 12:56 PM | PERMALINK

And I would be glad to help, with no shooting.

Posted by: Ace Franze on January 24, 2006 at 12:56 PM | PERMALINK

Why does the Pentagon hate the President?

because he's a dick

Posted by: cleek on January 24, 2006 at 1:00 PM | PERMALINK

Liberals have won in a perverse sort of way. Thankfully, their prayers for our defeat in Iraq remain unanswered, but our military seems to have decided that it is not worthwhile to replicate the success in Iraq in other countries which sorely need our intervention to bring freedom and democracy to their people.

Posted by: tbrosz on January 24, 2006 at 1:00 PM | PERMALINK

"they don't do aysymetrical 4th-generation warfare very well, so they're not going to play in that sandbox"

If they tried to play there, they'd have to admit that a lot of their big-budget toys (carriers, F22, etc.) aren't much use there.

THey want to keep their toybox.

And so we buy a lot of very expensive hardware that doesn't do us much good, and fail to buy the stuff (body armor, etc.) that we actually could use.

Posted by: CN on January 24, 2006 at 1:01 PM | PERMALINK

And here's Tbroz with todays strawman,But when your guy is 36% and falling ,a strawman is all you got.

Posted by: pssst on January 24, 2006 at 1:05 PM | PERMALINK

Ace Franze does his shooting and ass kicking on blog threads, and he does a remarkably good job.

Since the Pentagon isn't planning for peacekeeping or nation building operations, I think there's a pretty safe bet that there will be lots of nation building and peacekeeping done by poorly equipped units in the next decade.

We have failed to properly equip our military units so that they can achieve their mission--forget the whole NSA flap. This is the impeachable offense.

Posted by: Pale Rider on January 24, 2006 at 1:09 PM | PERMALINK

I have my reservations regarding nation building, but I am all for bombing our enemies out of the stone age.

Posted by: Freedom Fighter on January 24, 2006 at 1:09 PM | PERMALINK

Just wait until Bush/Cheney use tactical nukes to prevent Iran from developing nukes that THEY would use irresponsibly.

Posted by: karog on January 24, 2006 at 1:10 PM | PERMALINK

No, given what's happening in Pakistan, Iran, Afghanistan and Iraq, we will need to militarily intervene in one or more of these places. But we will not be able to, because our military has been so thoroughly misused and abused in Iraq.

This will be Dubya's legacy. And our shame.

Posted by: Amit Joshi on January 24, 2006 at 1:14 PM | PERMALINK

Mr. Ace Franze: And I would be glad to help, with no shooting.

We have full faith in you, Ace. Meanwhile, can you give me a hand with this big old file box? My upper-body strength's not what it used to be.

Posted by: shortstop on January 24, 2006 at 1:14 PM | PERMALINK

I do believe the purpose of an army is to either threaten or to actually occupy another country.

After all this investment in know-how for occupying Islamic nations, we are now going to put it all to rest?

Posted by: Matt on January 24, 2006 at 1:14 PM | PERMALINK

Why thank you, Pale Rider, and back atcha.

Where you at, shortstop? Maybe between us we can manage.

Posted by: Ace Franze on January 24, 2006 at 1:19 PM | PERMALINK

Liberals have won in a perverse sort of way. Thankfully, their prayers for our defeat in Iraq remain unanswered

No dunderhead, it's our prayers for the defeat of Osama Bin Laden and Al Qaeda that remain unanswered. Answer this just once, how many of the 9/11 hijackers were Iraqi?

Posted by: Another Bruce on January 24, 2006 at 1:22 PM | PERMALINK

Tbroz,

Re: The success in Iraq

In one word: underwhelming, particularly when one does a cost/benefit analysis. Was it really a wise way to spend $500,000,000,000 and 2,400 american military lives?

Posted by: exhuming mccarthy on January 24, 2006 at 1:25 PM | PERMALINK

PrahaPartizan,

Beware - we have the Q Bomb!

Posted by: Duchess of Fenwick on January 24, 2006 at 1:25 PM | PERMALINK

How about if the USA preemptively unilaterally surrenders to every country on Earth? Then we could spend our half-trillion dollar per year military budget on something useful.

We could also ban all foreign sales of weapons, from small arms to jet fighters, by US corporations, and stop arming the entire world.

It's interesting to see commenters who generally identify as "liberal" writing that we "need" a military that can occupy other countries and fight counter-insurgency wars. Why exactly does the USA "need" to be able to do that?


Posted by: SecularAnimist on January 24, 2006 at 1:31 PM | PERMALINK

In the coming years I wonder to what extent it will be revealed that Rumsfeld and his generals deliberately sabotaged the Iraq occupation in order to demonstrate the need for, and force implementation of, the reforms they had proposed before the war. "See?" they can say "our big, Cold-War-era army is unsuited for these asymetric wars and peace-keeping efforts." Congress will now sign off on any military program if it can be argued that it will help the army "avoid another Iraq debacle." I can really think of no other explanation for the unfathomable disinterest on the part of senior Pentagon officials -- first and foremost Rumsfeld -- in getting the occupation and reconstruction right. Rumsfeld's legacy is thus irreversably rotted through with the treason of sending our men and women into battle with limited resources and support for their mission and the utter venality of not having stood up to Bush and Cheney about the actual prospects for success, which were always dim.

Posted by: jonas on January 24, 2006 at 1:34 PM | PERMALINK

"How about if the USA preemptively unilaterally surrenders to every country on Earth?"

Didn't France already do that?

Seriously, the US cannot possibly go without a military, and as a liberal I get annoyed when I hear pacifists suggest that we should. Things are better in the former Yugoslavia because the USA has a military. Things could have been much better in Afghanistan had the US military not been immediately shifted to Iraq.

Things are not bad in Iraq because the US has a military; things are bad in Iraq because there is not a single damn person in the Executive branch who could think rationally about the Iraqi postwar.

Posted by: mmy on January 24, 2006 at 1:40 PM | PERMALINK

Seems to me that Secular Animist exists to provide examples of inflammatory leftist rhetoric that the wingnuts can later quote.

How about if the USA preemptively unilaterally surrenders to every country on Earth?

WTF!

Are you serious? Even Gandhi, if he were alive today, would find it hard to agree with your statement.

Posted by: lib on January 24, 2006 at 1:40 PM | PERMALINK

It's interesting to see commenters who generally identify as "liberal" writing that we "need" a military that can occupy other countries and fight counter-insurgency wars. Why exactly does the USA "need" to be able to do that?

We need a military that can be flexible enough to defend America and engage in peacekeeping operations where necessary.

We are lacking proper personal equipment, to include body armor, vehicles and armaments (the M16A2 is a dog, get rid of it and the M4 fires too small of a round) and we need a bigger Navy.

We have less than 300 ships right now, and we would be better served with a 450-500 ship Navy. A good mission would be eliminating piracy in the Indian Ocean.

Posted by: Pale Rider on January 24, 2006 at 1:46 PM | PERMALINK

exhuming mccarthy (great handle, btw), another Bruce:

You got taken in by a ringer.

If you ever have trouble telling, check his email before you respond to tbrosz; it's tbrosz@rotaryrocket.com.

tbrosz@helicalrocket is his most dedicated parodist, although I've also seen rotaryrectum, which I think is kind of a hoot :)

And then there's rotaryrockette, and the inimitable swivellingsphincter.

That last one's me, when fancy strikes to put on the ol' tbrosz space helmet.

Bob

Posted by: rmck1 on January 24, 2006 at 1:47 PM | PERMALINK

"Iraq is a one-off"

What the hell is a "one-off"?

Posted by: chuck on January 24, 2006 at 1:49 PM | PERMALINK

I do not write comments before, but I am sure that if you ask people who do you want to help you in your country: US Military or Mr. Ace Franze, a big majority would ask for US Military.

Just like the US military "helped" the Vietnamese, or the Iraqis.

I think most countries could do without that kind of "help."

Posted by: chuck on January 24, 2006 at 1:51 PM | PERMALINK

I have my reservations regarding nation building, but I am all for bombing our enemies out of the stone age.

Yeah, man . . . now if only we could figure out who "our enemies" are.

And if we can just kill enough of "our enemies," we will have peace.

Great plan, man. Great plan. And mighty Christian of you to, if I may say so.

Posted by: chuck on January 24, 2006 at 1:54 PM | PERMALINK

There's nothing wrong with Rumsfeld's military that penis enlargment pills wouldn't cure.
.

Posted by: tbrosz on January 24, 2006 at 1:57 PM | PERMALINK

9-11 didn't change anything, Kevin. Maybe a few synapses in Bush's cocaine and alcohol-addled brain. We are not "at war", unless I missed a formal declaration of war by the U.S. Congress. Bush uses the "war" metaphor to push his fascist agenda through, and the Dems roll over like a refugee boat.

The U.S. military will bankrupt this country and we will slide into decay and become a third-rate power - if we aren't all nuclear waste by the time Bush is through. And all the right-wing nimrods will be waving their cute little plastic American flags that were made in China and cahnting patriotic slogans, all the while...

All great empires end the same way - with a whisper, not a bang.

Posted by: Stephen Kriz on January 24, 2006 at 2:00 PM | PERMALINK

Exactly how they were thinking in Vietnam. Air Force didn't want to buy counterinsurgency aircraft that could fly low and slow, take hits and kill small ground targets, because they were fixated on the coming war against the Warsaw Pact, and Vietnam was a one-off too.
So they bought things like the FB-111 instead, which fly high and fast and are useless in fighting a guerrilla war. The Army had to sweat blood to get the A-10, and the AF has hated it ever since and done its best to get it canned. Now it's succeeded, and apparently the AF are going to be giving ground support with the F-22 and the F-35 (giggle).
Of course, the Army still aren't allowed fixed-wing support, otherwise they'd have hundreds of A-10s, instead of the Apache, which, we've just found out, is useless in deep strike because it can't survive ground fire, even when most of the enemy's AAA has been thoroughly killed by fastmovers.

Pale Rider - 1. The M4 is roughly the same as the M16A2 - certainly has the same round. Do you mean something else? It's not a bad weapon; the Diemaco C7 is the same basic design built by Canadians, and that's the best infantry rifle in the world. 2. Is piracy in the Indian Ocean really so much of a problem? I suppose there are worse roles, but I know what a dedicated anti-pirate navy would look like, and there isn't much overlap with what the USN looks like now. Would be a bit of a stretch.

Posted by: ajay on January 24, 2006 at 2:38 PM | PERMALINK

Pale Rider posted on 24 January 2006 at 1:46 PM:|

We need a military that can be flexible enough to defend America and engage in peacekeeping operations where necessary.

But that is not what we will be getting with Rumsfeld's proposed defense budgets. Instead,we'll be getting a gold-plated defense structure which will be outstanding at a few specific items and terrible in the proficiencies we need to keep us safe.

We are lacking proper personal equipment, to include body armor, vehicles and armaments (the M16A2 is a dog, get rid of it and the M4 fires too small of a round) and we need a bigger Navy.

Little of these requirements will be addressed by Rummy's budget. The Army has chewed up an outrageous amount of its asset base and it still hasn't decided on which equipment it will rely for future deployment. The Air Force fighter jocks want to fly high and fast, but they need to fly low and slow and transport stuff quickly around the globe. The Navy is still thinking it will be fighting a big battle in the central Pacific when its most innovative thinkers know they'll be shooting at bad guys in island archipelagos. Few of the necessary decisions have been made over the last four years by these incompetent bumblers. We are less secure thanks to their stewardship, not safer.

We have less than 300 ships right now, and we would be better served with a 450-500 ship Navy. A good mission would be eliminating piracy in the Indian Ocean.

Indeed, anti-piracy in the Indian Ocean would be a good mission for the global hegemon. Too bad it will never happen because our uniformed naval commanders in The Building will never field a force designed to address it. That type of mission requires a fleet (say, 100 to 150) of ships commonly called frigates in today's terminology, a ship displacing maybe 2000 dwt, capable of 25 knots, armed with one large gun, a few other guns, some small missiles for AAA and ASW. The US Navy will never buy a large fleet of such ships and chasing pirates in dhows and Zodiac boats and converted yachts with attack carriers is less than cost effective.

This issue isn't being weak on defense. The issue is being interested in buying a defense the nation needs, not one the overlords in The Building are interested in buying so they can secure a safe retirement for themselves. The revolving door between the folks in The Building and the defense contractors is just the other version of the K-Street Project run across the Potomac.

Posted by: PrahaPartizan on January 24, 2006 at 2:39 PM | PERMALINK

I have such respect for the US military! Another way to view this plan is that the military leadership realize they were suckered by the civilians in Iraq, so now they are being cautious.

Iraq is a one-off, in that Bush's primary goal in launching it was not the defense of US interests. I got the following comment re Bush and the war in Iraq from my 83-year mother this morning. It's from a Helen Thomas article in Liberal Opinion:

"The speculation for [Bush's] reasons to go to war have centered on the U.S. need to secure Iraq's oil -- the desire to protect Israel from hostile neighbors and the drive to settle a personal vendetta against Saddam, who tried to assassinate his father.

There is also the episode recounted by writer Micky Herskwitz, who had interviewed then-Gov Bush extensively for a campaign autobiography that he was ghost-writing for Bush. Herskowitz said Bush was thinking of invading Iraq in 1999 and told him that a successful leader needs to be seen as a commander in chief, indicating that president's need a war to gain political clout.

So I read this as the US military stalling for time. Bush policies are causing radical destablization throughout the ME and throughout the world and are increasing the threats we face from Global climate change, resource depletion and ideological and economic competition. Who knows where this is all headed. Bushco will try to focus our attention on Muslim extremists and Iran's nuclear capacity, but that is sleight of hand. Everything--the US military included--are in free-fall right now.

So what is the best way to respond to incompetent leadership? Keeping the size of the force as it is, but making units more flexible. Build up the technology. Wait.

Increasing the number of the soldiers just increases the likelihood that Bushco will start some other war as another political gambit. Nothing squelch's criticism of the President like dead soldiers: How can you traitors claim they died in vain?

Posted by: PTate in MN on January 24, 2006 at 3:07 PM | PERMALINK

Pale Rider - 1. The M4 is roughly the same as the M16A2 - certainly has the same round. Do you mean something else? It's not a bad weapon; the Diemaco C7 is the same basic design built by Canadians, and that's the best infantry rifle in the world.

Well, the AK-47 is actually the most successful infantry weapon in the world and has a 7.62mm round vs the too small 5.56mm round fired from the M16A2 and the M4. The amount of power behind the round is also critical. My point was, get rid of both weapons and get a weapon that can knock someone down on their ass with the first shot. Too many stories, anecdotally, of insurgents in Iraq continuing to fire/drive/run after we shoot them.

2. Is piracy in the Indian Ocean really so much of a problem? I suppose there are worse roles, but I know what a dedicated anti-pirate navy would look like, and there isn't much overlap with what the USN looks like now. Would be a bit of a stretch.

It's a huge problem in the Moluccas Straits right now, where large amounts of the world's shipping has to transit.

The British eliminated piracy in the Caribbean by 1830 with a relatively small squadron of ships; we should seize the initiative to end piracy and protect the world's shipping lines. Now THAT would be some homeland defense for you.

Posted by: Pale Rider on January 24, 2006 at 3:10 PM | PERMALINK

Bob:

Appreciate the guidebook, but it probably won't do much good. Some people are as dumb as a box of rocks, and still won't get it.

It is kind of flattering that so many people think my posts are serious enough on this board to require actual chaff to deflect them.

Posted by: tbrosz on January 24, 2006 at 3:11 PM | PERMALINK

Indeed, anti-piracy in the Indian Ocean would be a good mission for the global hegemon. Too bad it will never happen because our uniformed naval commanders in The Building will never field a force designed to address it.

The only pirates the Bush Administration are after are butt pirates.

*I'm going to hell for that one...

Posted by: Pale Rider on January 24, 2006 at 3:12 PM | PERMALINK

Sounds like the Pentagon admits it has a "pre 9/11 worldview." Didn't Donald Rumsfeld get the memo from Karl Rove?

Posted by: Cal Gal on January 24, 2006 at 3:46 PM | PERMALINK

"replicate the success in Iraq in other countries which sorely need our intervention to bring freedom and democracy to their people..."

The real tbrosz or a good copy?

Oh, yeah, they're just beggin' round the world to get some of what Iraq is getting.

Posted by: Cal Gal on January 24, 2006 at 3:48 PM | PERMALINK

tbrosz:

You know, it's funny ... most of the blogs and fora I've posted on previous to this were moderated to some degree or another, even if only with an automated "blog nanny" post scan for George Carlin's Finest.

People would get *extremely bent out of shape* over what they called "identity theft" when someone would do the ol' parody routine, demanding registration and sitebanning for incorrigibles, etc.

Kevin runs this place like the glory days of the local BBS -- no speech controls whatsoever. While it might be nice to delete the Chinese porn spam every so often, this lassiez-faire approach is quite salutary.

Because people are allowed to flame and curse, nobody takes it all that seriously. Because there is no moderator to complain to, nobody beats up on "snitches."

The NYT fora should really take a page from this book. Kinda puts a tear in my eye on behalf of the good ol' First Amendment.

Bob

Posted by: rmck1 on January 24, 2006 at 3:58 PM | PERMALINK

"Liberal military analysts"

LOL! An oxymoron if there was one!

Posted by: Freedom Fighter on January 24, 2006 at 4:14 PM | PERMALINK

I have my reservations regarding nation building, but I am all for bombing our enemies out of the stone age.


How do you bomb someone out of the stone age?

Posted by: blueperiod on January 24, 2006 at 5:00 PM | PERMALINK

It is kind of flattering that so many people think my posts are serious enough on this board to require actual chaff to deflect them.

Huh?

Delusional?

Posted by: tbrosz on January 24, 2006 at 5:17 PM | PERMALINK

"Liberal military analysts"


LOL! An oxymoron if there was one!


Kinda like an honest Republican or a compassionate conservative.

Posted by: lib on January 24, 2006 at 5:20 PM | PERMALINK

The spending plan for defense is basically unchanged over the next ten years according to the CBO study issued in 1/06.Defense spending averages $450 billion between now and 2011 rising to $497 billion from 2012 to 2024. The military shares one issue with manufacturing companies,the fastest growing component of cost is health care for retirees.
Almost 1/3 of the budget is for R&D (weapon system procurement). Within that category the Army gets 17%,Navy&Marines 34% and the AF 35%.
The report discusses the costs of both the transformational plan vs. the evolutionary plan,the transformational plan is the implementation of the Future Combat system.Even these expenditure levels "would not be sufficient to maintain the combat vehicle fleet in a steady state.The army has not purchased enough combat vehicles during the past 14 years to prevent the fllet's average age from rising 13 years,about double what it was in 1990." Which is why the regulars have taken so much of the Nat'l Guard's equipment to Iraq (see GAO report 06-170T);if only they could account for it now.
The report charts helicopter,M1A1,FCS and for the Navy, the spending for 12 ships/yr as well as the types of ships. The AF plan shortens the production of F/A22 fighters to be replaced w/ the Joint Strike Fighter.The B-52s and B-1s will be around until 2023.
At the current size of 1.4 million active duty and 1.3 million reservists, the capabilities do not seem to include a second front active warzone.
Iran can hurt us more at the moment than anything we can do to them short of a nuke attack,which would seem odd although destroying them to save them would fit a few prior plans.

Posted by: TJM on January 24, 2006 at 5:41 PM | PERMALINK

Pale Rider wrote: the AK-47 is actually the most successful infantry weapon in the world

Oh, yes, very successful.

The world is flooded with small arms and light weapons numbering at least 500 million, enough for one of every 12 people on earth. Most of these are controlled by legal authorities, but when they fall into the hands of terrorists, criminals and irregular forces, small arms bring devastation. They exacerbate conflict, spark refugee flows, undermine the rule of law, and spawn a culture of violence and impunity. In short, small arms are a threat to peace and development, to democracy and human rights. Small arms are easy to buy: in some places, an AK-47 assault rifle can be bought for as little as $15, or even for a bag of grain. They are easy to use: with minimal training, even a child can wield one. They are easy to conceal and transport. Since they require little maintenance, they can last for decades. They cause big losses: the Inter-American Development Bank has estimated the direct and indirect costs of small arms violence at $140 to $170 billion per year in Latin America alone. Most of all, they are deadly. According to the independent Small Arms Survey 2001, small arms are implicated in well over 1,000 deaths every single day, the vast majority of them women and children.
-- Kofi Annan, July 2001

Small arms and light weapons fuel civil wars and other conflicts, causing harm to millions of people, particularly in Africa. These small weapons are only part of a larger trade that includes heavier and more lethal weaponry, but light arms are often especially baneful because they are cheap, easy to transport and can be handled by ill-trained rebel soldiers and even children. Recent UN reports show how these weapons are illicitly exported, transported with the connivance of government officials in many countries and smuggled into war zones. In some areas, automatic weapons are so cheap they can be bought in exchange for a chicken or a few pounds of rice.
-- Global Policy Forum

Kofi Annan, UN secretary general, has said the death toll from small arms "dwarfs that of all other weapons systems, and in most years greatly exceeds the toll of the Hiroshima and Nagasaki atomic bombs. In terms of the carnage they cause, small arms could well be described as weapons of mass destruction - yet there is still no global non-proliferation regime to limit their spread" [...] 500,000 people, one a minute, killed by conventional arms every year.
-- The Guardian (UK), October 2003

Posted by: SecularAnimist on January 24, 2006 at 6:45 PM | PERMALINK

Secular Animist,

No quarrel from me. Melt the guns.

Posted by: Pale Rider on January 24, 2006 at 10:40 PM | PERMALINK

It is worth noting that in 2001, Rumsfeld's QDR recommended reductions in U.S. force levels only weeks before 9/11.

For more, see:
"Cognitive Dissonance, Terrorism and 9/11"

Posted by: AvengingAngel on January 24, 2006 at 10:50 PM | PERMALINK

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Posted by: dfd on January 24, 2006 at 10:57 PM | PERMALINK

"This issue isn't being weak on defense. The issue is being interested in buying a defense the nation needs, not one the overlords in The Building are interested in buying so they can secure a safe retirement for themselves. The revolving door between the folks in The Building and the defense contractors is just the other version of the K-Street Project run across the Potomac."

This really is the crux of what's going on, and gets to a constant that supersedes any particular manias of any party or faction currently in charge.

Gore Vidal once wrote that the only thing that should interest citizens about government should be how much money is spent on which policies -- but that sex scandals generally fill that slot in the public mind. It's all very sad, isn't it?

Posted by: Kenji on January 24, 2006 at 11:10 PM | PERMALINK

Review "The Lord of War" for a take on weapons proliferation. Hollywood with a punch.

Posted by: opit on January 24, 2006 at 11:19 PM | PERMALINK

I don't want to turn this into a gun debate (being a liberal military analyst and infantryman, I don't much like firearms and would gladly see them all melted) but the AK-47 is very inaccurate indeed. It's ideal for untrained troops age 8 and up (most successful, I suppose, as in most copies sold) being durable, reliable, cheap, simple and lightweight, but professionals who have the choice go for the M4/C7 series or its derivatives.
Going after piracy would be great, but what you'd need would be a lot of ships midway between modern frigates and coast guard cutters. The LCS was going to look like this before it succumbed to Navy Bloat. What you'd end up with would be something like a Nelson-era frigate in capability. (Nelson said that when he died you would find the words "More frigates!" engraved on his heart.) The problem is that the USN doesn't have any and wouldn't want any if offered. No glamour.

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Isn't it ironic when the bedwetters mention cutting and running without mentioning Nixon or Reagan? Or maybe hypocritical would be more apt.

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And the biggest cutter and runner of them all, the heroic chickengeorge on 911?

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Posted by: dfd343 on January 25, 2006 at 11:40 AM | PERMALINK

I do work with these rounds. Here's the deal.

The effect of the the 5.56 M16/M4 round is very different in nature than the 7.62 AK round.

The 7.62 is designed to kill through mass. It is heavy and pokes a hole though most anything at short range.it doesn't deform or fragment much except sometimes at very short range or with very cheaply made bullets, or with geneva convention banned tips. It can tumble, but often doesn't

The 55grain 5.56mm bullet falls apart in a body if it penetrates with over a 2700 fps velocity. It is fired at 3000-3100 fps, and generally ranges out to 150-200 yards before its velocity falls below that threshold. The fragmentation is not caused by the tip expanding, but because the bullet turns sideways a few inches after entering a person and the shear tears it apart. the fragments inflict a MASSIVE hole inside the flesh it hits, much larger than about anything non-hollowpoint a person can get hit with. Again, this is a near exclusive property of the 5.56 FMJ bullet, due to its speed and small size. You could get the effect with heavier bullets, but they would need to be fired at a much higher velocity, requiring a much better constructed gun and a good recoil system to control it. Heavier sniper weapons may be able to achieve this.

However, slower than 2700 FPS terminal velocity severely reduces this fragmentation. That means ranges past 150-200 yards

the M855 5.56 mm "green tip" round is a 62 grain bullet with a steel penetrator in it. Its fragmentation range is much lower, 50 - 100 yards. It will penetrate most "bulletproof" armor and light metal barriers, but its effect on pentration afterwards is often not as great, again because of the velocity loss on entering flesh. It was designed to fight Russian soldiers. It sucks against unarmored targets, because it often goes right through them smoothly, leaving a tiny puncture wound. In Somalia, soldiers reported seeing people hit a half dozen times with no significant imparement, though of couse those people may have well died later from interior bleeding and infection.

Special forces fighting in afghanistan often fought at extended ranges, 400 yards or more. They have access to a new, non-mil-spec bullet, the Siera 77 grain FMJ boattail. This has a muzzle velocity of only 2700-2800 fps, so probably doesn't fragment, though it may tumble. the tip is soft and has no pentrator, and in fact has a tiny little hollowpoint-like feature in the copper jacket. This has proven to be very deadly at extended ranges, and maintains its speed out further than a lighter round, so it hits hard and almost certainly mushrooms.

the M4 carbine is an M16 in every meaningful way, just with a shorter barrel and a collapsable stock to make them lighter, and easier to fire from a vehicle and when clearing a building. Muzzle velocity is slightly lower from the shorter barrel, but it is intended to be used in closer quarters anyway. It is a superbly built and accurate weapon.

The AK can be made extremely accurate, but most of them are made to be cheap and durable.

Which is deadlier - it is completely situational. the biggest advantage of 5.56 round is that it is much lighter, so a soldier can carry and fire more ammo. At extended ranges, it will put more bullets on target, but they will likely not have as great an effect per bullet as the 7.62mm.


the 5.56 round is in nearly every way identical to a remington .223 round. A 5.56 chamber is slighter larger than a .223 chamber - this is a slight sacrifice of accuracy to reduce the potential for jams. being an inch or two off at 100 yards is not nearly as bad as jamming your gun, especially when your gun is firing 3 round bursts anyway.

The M16/M4 has evolved with US squad tactics and strategy. You could give every soldier an AK, but it would probably LESSEN their effectiveness in the short term. Obviously tactics and strategy would evolve around the AK if they were made available, but likely over the blood of many soldiers trial and error.

There is a lot of talk of switching the caliber for future weapon systems, but there is no longer any money for it, and definitely no agreement on it. 6.4mm, and 6.8mm are frequently bandied as compromise calibers, thoughly normally the term used is "ideal" caliber.

To summarize - the 5.56 mm round is very effective at shorter ranges, where fragmentation can do more damage than what you'd expect from a very light bullet. Not so great at longer ranges. But most combat occurs at less than 100 yards, so its generally not an issue. Changing it might be more effective, but not so much to justify the cost of refitting the entire army and marines and redevising tactics in the middle of a war, especially when we are wasting so much money through privatization of military functions.

If we were to change calibers, it would probably be better to design a whole new one around a new propellant formulation that would minimize cartridge weight while maximizing the velocity and accuracy out past 200 yards.

Posted by: Mysticdog on January 25, 2006 at 1:35 PM | PERMALINK

MysticDog,

What they should do is find one round, a round that can kill, perform the 'tumbling' effect you wrote about, and then make that the round for the replacement for the M16A2, the M4, the SAW and the 60.

One round, one standard, and make sure that round will knock someone down.

Excellent analysis. I remember my M16A2 in Korea was deadlined for a year when the Katusa Armorer couldn't find a frickin' replacement ejector spring.

Posted by: Pale Rider on January 25, 2006 at 1:45 PM | PERMALINK

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