Editore"s Note
Tilting at Windmills

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April 4, 2006
By: Kevin Drum

DEMOCRACY UPDATE....The latest from Iraq:

Iraq's embattled prime minister has defiantly refused to give up his claim to head the country's next government....In an exclusive interview with the Guardian in Baghdad his first since Condoleezza Rice and Jack Straw pleaded with him and his rivals for an immediate agreement to prevent a slide to civil war Ibrahim Jaafari insisted he would continue to carry out his duties.

If this were happening in America, I'd say it's the kind of thing people say about two days before they finally cave in and step aside. But Iraq? Beats me. It still sounds like the kind of table banging you do when you know you've lost all support, but maybe Arab table banging is different from ours.

Anyway, that's what's going on.

Kevin Drum 8:37 PM Permalink | Trackbacks | Comments (53)

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Comments

As usual, Iraqi politics is a confusing maze of complex, sometimes contradictory impulses that is virtually impossible for an outsider to understand. Exactly why we shouldn't have gone there in the first place.

Posted by: The Germinator on April 4, 2006 at 8:44 PM | PERMALINK

I'd say it's the kind of thing people say about two days before they finally cave in and step aside. But Iraq? Beats me

They don't cave in and step aside. They lose a fight with an IED.

Mr Jaafari would be advised to get a copy of Tim Pat Coogan's bio of Michael Collins, and be very, very careful.

Posted by: Davis X. Machina on April 4, 2006 at 8:51 PM | PERMALINK

Not sure if the premise that this response is a function of culture is correct.

To my way of seeing things, this would be time to loot what you can and run. But maybe he reasons that he's better off owning a faction in a civil war than leaving the country. Maybe a nice faction in Iraq beats that small estate in Egypt?

Posted by: Saam Barrager on April 4, 2006 at 9:03 PM | PERMALINK

Ah Kevin.

Still rooting against democracy, I see.

In case you haven't noticed, Iraq has a popularly elected government. May be butt ugly at the moment, but democracies are never pretty and that's what's beautiful about them. Probably why liberals hate them so much, because they don't follow the dictums found in their little textbooks.

Anyway, the will of the Iraqi people will be heard eventually. If they desire to see Jafarri step down, so be it.

Posted by: egbert on April 4, 2006 at 9:05 PM | PERMALINK

If Jaafari is saying that he won't step aside just because the U.S. wants him to, I think we take him at his word. The man is not just biding time till he heads off to the gulf for a vacation with his family next week.

Everybody worries that civil war (or at least a worse version) is inevitable if Jaafari stays. It may be just as inevitable if he goes. He might not live to see the result.

In any case, don't expect him to quit. He's not a wuss like Tom Delay.

Posted by: JJF on April 4, 2006 at 9:09 PM | PERMALINK

In case you haven't noticed, Iraq has a popularly elected government.

Good point egbert. Liberals like Kevin Drum don't understand now that Iraq is free and democratic, it would be wrong for Bush to step in and interfere. The fact that there is such dispute in Iraq shows Iraq is a vibrant democracy which will last for a long time so long as we stay the course.

Posted by: Al on April 4, 2006 at 9:14 PM | PERMALINK

Egbert and Al are funny. They're so touchy about their indefensibe support of the invasion that they interpret any news as criticism.

As long as a "liberal" reports it. When FOX reports it they're quiet.

Posted by: Joey G. on April 4, 2006 at 9:22 PM | PERMALINK

Freedom is so thoroughly on the march that it passed right by Iraq.

Posted by: BobT on April 4, 2006 at 9:28 PM | PERMALINK

The overriding fact is that the newly elected legislature can select a prime minister, but they have not been able to agree and thus form a government. Thats the big problem, not Jaafari.

The constitutional deadline for forming a government after the election is well past. But Iraqis have ignored their constitution from day one and this just one of many ways in which they have ignored it. Things are extremely bleak in Iraq. There is no legitimate government; it is not widely accepted at all. There is no intention by the Shiites or the Sunnis or the Kurds to abide by the constitution. They have there own militias, their own everything.

I just dont see how it will work as long as the U. S. is there taking sides.

Posted by: little ole jim from red country on April 4, 2006 at 9:29 PM | PERMALINK

egbert and Al:
Sadly, like a general in Iraq I heard, you don't understand the difference between an election and government. The reason the Secretary of State and the UK Foreign Minister visited Iraq is that they have FAILED so far to form a government.

This is a parliamentary system and no one party has an overall majority. So far, it's a shambles. They are not even close to forming any type of government.

Which goes to the Arab mind-set. Not something I know about. Not something this government ever seems to take into account. But it's important.

For our troops in Iraq, arresting and interrogating possible suspects on the street, breakng into a house to search without warning, these may be neccesary but they do offend. There is a loss of face. Similarly, whether Sadam then or politicians now, "face", manners, the order of things, tribal respect, blood, all matter. It is a form of intelligence we have not, it seems, applied in Iraq (or to Iran).
Maybe we should reread "7 Pillars of Wisdom."

Posted by: notthere on April 4, 2006 at 9:37 PM | PERMALINK

Al and egbert are so defensive about the utter disaster that their guys have created in Iraq that they miss a key point:

Kevin didn't root for anyone in the post. At most, he commented on the fact that the democratically elected head of Iraq has refused to cave to foriegn pressure to step down.

Posted by: phleabo on April 4, 2006 at 9:41 PM | PERMALINK

Anyway, the will of the Iraqi people will be heard eventually. If they desire to see Jafarri step down, so be it.

Eh, actually in this case it's Bush who's saying that he wants to see Jaafari step down, and Jafaari who's insisting that the will of the Iraqi people be heard. Somehow Bush just doesn't want to live with the results of that election he claims to have brought about....

See, if you'd actually read the article you'd have seen the bit that said:

Using the argument that the US and Britain had toppled Saddam in order to bring democracy,[Jaafari] turned it against them. "There is a decision that was reached by a democratic mechanism and I stand with it ... We have to protect democracy in Iraq and it is democracy which should decide who leads Iraq. We have to respect our Iraqi people," he said.....

US and British diplomats have repeatedly hinted in private that they prefer Mr Mahdi, a pro-market economist and less of an Islamist than Mr Jaafari....

Washington and London were alarmed by the fact that Mr Jaafari won the nomination thanks to votes from MPs loyal to the radical cleric Moqtada al-Sadr. Mr Sadr is a strong critic of the occupation whose militias have often clashed with US forces. But the prime minister insisted he should be praised rather than condemned for bringing Mr Sadr into the political process.

In case Bush hasn't noticed, Iraq has a popularly elected government. May be ugly at the moment, but democracies are never pretty and that's what's beautiful about them. Probably why Bush hates them so much, because they don't follow the dictums found in his neocon fantasies.

Posted by: Stefan on April 4, 2006 at 9:42 PM | PERMALINK

There's a lot of problems past Jafari. If he resigns, and the secular forces start to gain power, Sadr is going to see himself as being hung out to dry, and will probably start another one of his patented uprisings. A lot depends on where Sistani lands at that point, too.

Posted by: tbrosz on April 4, 2006 at 9:43 PM | PERMALINK

If he resigns, and (if)the secular forces start to gain power, Sadr is going to see himself as being hung out to dry, and will probably start another one of his patented uprisings.

Suppositions based on probabilities.

The trends are that secularism is losing ground in Iraq, not gaining it. Sadr's 'patented uprising' might have more support than you give it credit for. remember, in democratic terms, Sadr represents a rather large bloc of viotes.

But then, all this was predicted before the invasion began.

Posted by: floopmeister on April 4, 2006 at 10:05 PM | PERMALINK

I heard there were going to be snacks. Are we going to have snacks?

Posted by: IOKIYAR on April 4, 2006 at 10:09 PM | PERMALINK

Kevin Drum has stopped chortling about a 'civil war' in Iraq.

That must mean something positive for democracy is going on there.

Stay tuned.

Posted by: Frequency Kenneth on April 4, 2006 at 10:12 PM | PERMALINK

Good point about American politicians. My friend and I used to comment to each other, when a politician said, "I will NEVER resign," that it was all over--he's gone.

Posted by: LeisureGuy on April 4, 2006 at 10:12 PM | PERMALINK

Frequency Kenneth, did you bring the snacks? What kind of snacks did you bring?

Posted by: IOKIYAR on April 4, 2006 at 10:13 PM | PERMALINK

Frequency is on to something there.

Posted by: Apollo 13 on April 4, 2006 at 10:13 PM | PERMALINK

I agree with Frequency!

Posted by: Stefan on April 4, 2006 at 10:14 PM | PERMALINK

tbrosz: Here's my thought. Jaafari does or does not resign, it makes little difference. The factions have not been able to agree, or they would just select a PM.

Iraq is do divided that outside players will probably need to be involved for a long time. However, the U. S. military is not accepted at all, but any of the factions. We have taken the Shiite side for a while lately, but that could change quickly. As long as we are there we will have to favor on faction or another.

I don't see how that will work. I think there will be significant violence for years. So, what to do?

Posted by: little ole jim from red country on April 4, 2006 at 10:16 PM | PERMALINK

I think Frequency's a dipshit!

Posted by: phleabo on April 4, 2006 at 10:17 PM | PERMALINK

I know all I know second hand so if a real expert would pitch in . . . .

Jaafari was selected last time around as Prime Minister and, in the view of many elected Iraqis, was weak and ineffective. After the last election the Shiite parties compromised and chose Jaafari again. The fact that al-Sadr pitched in with him makes me think of wheels within wheels, let alone all the other factions.

The Shiites together form the largest parliamentary setion but are also capable of some fragmentation, as are Sunnis and Kurds. Think Italian politics with even more parties.

If the Shiites cannot co-opt to a majority for government under Jaafari, they can choose another Prime Minister, doesn't neccessarily have to be a Shiite, but they need to compromise with other parties and agree basic policies to form a government of majority. Jaafari's position has nothing to do with the last election per se. Have to stop thinking US politics.

All this may be beyond the capapbilities of a fledgling democracy that has serious divisions. Kurds want their own autonomy. Sunnis are just beginning to realise they don't have a god-given right to lead. The Shiites want to express their dominance.

We compromised on the constitution (as we did in Afghanistan) to get things moving. We've compromised on the security and police forces because we are in too much of a hurry to do it right. Now we've tried to impose mature democracy on a country in a shambles.

No one is serious about this.

Posted by: notthere on April 4, 2006 at 10:19 PM | PERMALINK

notthere: there are serious people for sure, we just got to get them elected. Bush and the republicans are most definitely not serious.

Posted by: little ole jim from red country on April 4, 2006 at 10:24 PM | PERMALINK

I believe one thing. Had Al Gore been elected, we would not be in Iraq, Iraq would still not be a threat, and Al Queda would be much weaker.

Had Kerry been elected, we would be much more likely to have a real coalition working to solve the problem. As it is, we are still alone.

Posted by: little ole jim from red country on April 4, 2006 at 10:29 PM | PERMALINK

Three words: Ngo Dinh Diem

Posted by: Christopher on April 4, 2006 at 10:31 PM | PERMALINK

Arabs fighting amongst themselves? Quit it. Next thing you'll be telling me some Muslims got violent.

Posted by: Pat on April 4, 2006 at 10:31 PM | PERMALINK

So, what to do?

It took seven years before we gave Japan back to the Japanese. And that was with no insurgency, and a nearly monolithic culture. Just for perspective.

Negatives include the fact that we didn't get rid of Sadr two years ago and are regretting it, the number of "ringers" in the security system (especially the police), Iranian influence at several levels in the government, and serious corruption that is going to have to be addressed when the violence is less of an issue. These would still be issues if every insurgent and terrorist disappeared tomorrow.

Positives include the fact that the government is still trying to form instead of breaking up and scattering to bunkers for a full-scale civil war, that the Iranian Army still seems to be holding together in the face of serious sectarian forces trying to pull it apart, that there is a lot of hostility against al Qaeda, even from the Sunnis and insurgents, and that more Iraqis would still rather see a united Iraq than a Balkanized one.

Posted by: tbrosz on April 4, 2006 at 10:54 PM | PERMALINK

again with the useless wwii comparisons: whatever drives people to such twaddle?

there is no outcome in iraq commensurate with the cost, and sticking around 4 more years, for frickin' perspective, isn't going to improve that equation. this has been one of the most amazing strategic blunders in united states history, and there are still those telling us about the "positives."

talk about delusional.

Posted by: howard on April 4, 2006 at 11:00 PM | PERMALINK

It took seven years before we gave Japan back to the Japanese. And that was with no insurgency, and a nearly monolithic culture. Just for perspective.

And how many combat casualties were there in Japan after the pre-existing regime was defeated and occupation bega? Just, you know, for perspective...

Posted by: cmdicely on April 4, 2006 at 11:03 PM | PERMALINK

cmdicely:

The point was that it took seven years under the conditions you mentioned, and after the nation had been pacified with nuclear weapons.

With an insurgency supported by neighboring nations, and our military operating in an environment where U.S. military casualties are considered cause for retreat and a civilian casualty is considered a war crime, I suspect Iraq might take a little while, too.

Posted by: tbrosz on April 4, 2006 at 11:13 PM | PERMALINK

The onus for any failure in Iraq shall lie squarely with the liberals since our President's fear of their reaction keeps him from doing what is necessary to achieve success, viz., to kill the Iraqi civilians indiscriminately.

Posted by: tbrosz on April 4, 2006 at 11:19 PM | PERMALINK

With an insurgency supported by neighboring nations, and our military operating in an environment where U.S. military casualties are considered cause for retreat and a civilian casualty is considered a war crime, I suspect Iraq might take a little while, too.

And that's a good thing, how? Considering that Bush and the Republicans sold this as a quick and easy war, and expected to be out of there within a few months after having installed their puppet Chalabi, doesn't the fact that any faint hope of even a remotely not horrible outcome will take years and years and years and tremendous expenditure of our blood and taxpayer dollars indicate to a thinking person that, you know, they kind of fucked this up?

And again, that question Flanders refused to answer yesterday, how is a situation "with an insurgency supported by neighboring nations, and our military operating in an environment where U.S. military casualties are considered cause for retreat and a civilian casualty is considered a war crime" a sign that Iraq is on its way to becoming a united multi-ethnic multi-party democracy that will be a shining beacon of freedom for the Middle East?

Posted by: Stefan on April 4, 2006 at 11:21 PM | PERMALINK

our military operating in an environment where U.S. military casualties are considered cause for retreat and a civilian casualty is considered a war crime

One minute the views of progressives are marginal and insignificant, unsupported by a majority in the military and most Americans --

-- the next they are a major factor in the creation of DoD policy and the execution of this war, and apparently the reason Iraq has been an utter clusterfuck.

Do you do any ventriloquism work? If not you should, because you talk out of both sides of your mouth equally as well.

Posted by: trex on April 4, 2006 at 11:21 PM | PERMALINK

I suspect Iraq might take a little while, too.

And hey, time is what we have plenty of! After all, it's not like things are getting worse the longer they go on, or that the longer the American public is exposed to this war the more they hate it....

And by the way, all that American taxpayer money that went to fund Iraq's "reconstruction"? It runs out in nine months.

Posted by: Stefan on April 4, 2006 at 11:23 PM | PERMALINK

tbrosz: "...pacified with nuclear weapons..."

Sick, but funny.

Posted by: has407 on April 4, 2006 at 11:24 PM | PERMALINK

It took seven years before we gave Japan back to the Japanese.

Ah, Ned Flanders, master of the false and misinformed World War II analogy. He clings to those like a Republican congressman clings to a bribe.

Curious analogy, though, because according to Flanders here several months ago we never attacked Japan after Pearl Harbor....

Posted by: Stefan on April 4, 2006 at 11:25 PM | PERMALINK

Flanders: With an insurgency supported by neighboring nations, and our military operating in an environment where U.S. military casualties are considered cause for retreat and a civilian casualty is considered a war crime,

But...but those are all bad things! I thought the current wingnut meme was that things were going so well, and that all was sweetness and light in Iraq? What about all the painted schools? What about all the Baghad streets that very strongly resemble downtown Istanbul?

Posted by: Stefan on April 4, 2006 at 11:39 PM | PERMALINK

lojrfc:
I guess I'm too old fashioned but when there is a real problem people need to get out in front of it.

The problem with the present admin is that it started from the wrong premise(s) and can't admit it, so can't make the jump to get back in front of the problem. Tail is wagging the dog.

As for an alternative, let's hear the ideas. Yes it's really hard, but we need the honesty. At least a start at a debate.

Posted by: notthere on April 4, 2006 at 11:39 PM | PERMALINK

Do you do any ventriloquism work? If not you should, because you talk out of both sides of your mouth equally as well.

Hey, you should see him when he talks out of both sides of his ass.

Oh wait, we do. Every single day.

Posted by: Stefan on April 4, 2006 at 11:41 PM | PERMALINK

...again with the useless wwii comparisons: whatever drives people to such twaddle?

Simple. WWII was a morally Black & White war (at least, as far as this can be said to be true of any war) and America wore the white hat.

In a morally grey war like the Iraq war, it's comforting to resort to old truisms.

---------------------

Saddam = Hitler

Axis of Evil = Axis Powers

Iraq = Germany

Islamofascist = Extreme Nationalis Secular European Fascist (dead giveaway, this one)

America = America (still the Good Guy)

Bush = Churchill (or FDR)

Antiwar movement = Chamberlain

Occupation of Iraq = Occupation of Germany and Japan

---------------------

Same characters and, more importantly, same plot. Very comforting.

It's really just as straightforward as this.

Posted by: floopmeister on April 4, 2006 at 11:43 PM | PERMALINK

Oh, forgot the most important one:

911 = Pearl Harbour.

Everything else flows from this.

Posted by: floopmeister on April 4, 2006 at 11:45 PM | PERMALINK

A shorter equality:

Bush = Flunkey

Posted by: koreyel on April 4, 2006 at 11:52 PM | PERMALINK

I thought the current wingnut meme was that things were going so well, and that all was sweetness and light in Iraq?

You want to see Tommy really lowering expectations, check out this oldie but goodie:

When it comes down to it, Iraqis are going to have to sort our their own nation eventually. Hopefully without a civil war, but we'll have to see what happens. We gave them a chance at a democratic society, not a guarantee. Before they had no chance at all.

The U.S. took some time to find its level, too, including a major civil war. If you look at our civil rights movement, a good case can be made that full democracy wasn't reached until almost two hundred years after our founding.

Not only does he gloss over the fact that if Iraq endures a bloody civil war that it will be a direct and predicted result of our invasion, he euphemistically files the slaughter under "sorting out," disavows any responsibility on the part of the U.S. for the carnage -- and then says to be fair we need to give the current "plan" a good two hundred years to come to fruition before we judge it.

Way to wash your hands of the whole bloody affair, Tom. Pontius Pilate's got nothin' on you.

Posted by: trex on April 4, 2006 at 11:59 PM | PERMALINK

pacified with nuclear weapons.

He just slips this in, trying, as usual, to sound profound and omnipotent.

What a sick fuck tbrosz is.

Posted by: lib on April 5, 2006 at 12:04 AM | PERMALINK

Jack Straw and Condoleeza Rice...

They came bearing gifts....

Looks like the incentives the doled out likely worked...(just a guess based on my knowledge of how this regime works)

Posted by: justmy2 on April 5, 2006 at 12:08 AM | PERMALINK

Jack Straw and Condoleeza Rice...

They came bearing gifts....

What, the Wise Men of the West?

Posted by: floopmeister on April 5, 2006 at 12:15 AM | PERMALINK

I don't think it makes sense to pull apart everything tbrosz says looking for wingnuttery. Doubly so for the fake Al, but for very different reasons.

Posted by: Barry on April 5, 2006 at 7:25 AM | PERMALINK

I disagree, Barry.

Fake Al is a joke - literally - and conspiracy nut is a fucking crackpot, but tbrosz at least sounds rational and considered, and thus the inherent lies and distortion he is constantly presenting ought to be exposed and rebutted, lest they fool people simply by their presentation.

Posted by: S Ra on April 5, 2006 at 8:21 AM | PERMALINK

The point was that it took seven years under the conditions you mentioned, and after the nation had been pacified with nuclear weapons.

With an insurgency supported by neighboring nations, and our military operating in an environment where U.S. military casualties are considered cause for retreat and a civilian casualty is considered a war crime, I suspect Iraq might take a little while, too.

And, so? The limited prospects for success and the high cost add to the lack of reasonable provocation to make exactly the case against the war that those of us who opposed it were making from the beginning, when the war pimps were talking about more like 6 weeks than 6 months, cakewalks, and an occupation and rebuilding that would pay for itself, and total costs in the handfuls of billions rather than the hundreds of billions.

Yeah, as the situation keeps getting worse, it might take an infinitely long time to succeed in Iraq. That's one of the pile of reasons we shouldn't have invaded it in the first place, and one of the reasons that the expected cost:benefit of our continued presence appear to remain strongly negative even given that the sunk costs of the invasion and occupation to date have to be excluded.

Posted by: cmdicely on April 5, 2006 at 11:05 AM | PERMALINK

At this stage, what would a successful outcome in Iraq (even by low disaster-avoiding standards) really mean?

Posted by: Gadfly on April 6, 2006 at 10:14 AM | PERMALINK


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Posted by: comment on April 7, 2006 at 4:51 PM | PERMALINK




 

 

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