Editore"s Note
Tilting at Windmills

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May 13, 2006
By: Kevin Drum

NEW POLL ON NSA PROGRAM....Newsweek has a new poll out that tests reaction to the NSA's call monitoring program, and the results are significantly different from the Washington Post's poll yesterday. Perhaps it's because a day has passed and the news has sunk in a bit, or perhaps it's because it's a full-size poll (1007 respondent), but in any case 53% think the program invades people's privacy and 57% think Bush has gone too far in expanding presidential power.

Whew. My faith in the American public is slightly restored.

Kevin Drum 12:42 PM Permalink | Trackbacks | Comments (54)

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Comments

I still see there is a HUGE partisan divide on the issue: good thing GWB was elected as a uniter, not a divider! Who knows what sort of split we might have!? (Or that GOP Kool-Aid could be so tasty?)

Posted by: Jay C on May 13, 2006 at 12:45 PM | PERMALINK

Can we from now on assume that Washington Post is one more in a long list of propganda arms of the Republican Party?

Posted by: lib on May 13, 2006 at 12:48 PM | PERMALINK

The Washington Post reports that federal law allows the NSA to collect the phone records of suspected terrorists and the mad rantings of Kevin Drum and the New Left to the contrary are simply wrong.

Link

"The three companies reported to have supplied telephone records to the NSA also appear to be acting lawfully"
"the Electronic Communications Privacy Act of 1986 explicitly permits telecommunications companies to provide customer records to the government if the government asks for them."

Posted by: Al on May 13, 2006 at 12:50 PM | PERMALINK

Al writes: "The Washington Post reports that federal law allows the NSA to collect the phone records of suspected terrorists and the mad rantings of Kevin Drum and the New Left to the contrary are simply wrong."

Click the link. Always click the link.

"The writer is a fellow at the Brookings Institution. He was deputy homeland security adviser and deputy assistant to the president until May 2004. He has no official knowledge of the program in question."

Posted by: Joel on May 13, 2006 at 12:56 PM | PERMALINK

Al

See my comment above.

Quoting Washington Post is worthless.

Posted by: lib on May 13, 2006 at 12:57 PM | PERMALINK

Bush just lost Mel Gibson' support.

Equivalent to LBJ's Walter Cronkite moment.

Posted by: Ferangi on May 13, 2006 at 1:01 PM | PERMALINK

What I find most interesting in the partisan breakdown are the responses of independent voters. Those independent voters voted republican in 2000 and, I think, in 2004. They are peeved.

Posted by: lisainVan on May 13, 2006 at 1:02 PM | PERMALINK

Check the link. Great idea. Read the first para where he discusses a hypothetical example

In the current political environment anytime I see someone using a hypothetical example rather then the actual facts I assume there is something in the real data they do not want me to know.

Posted by: spencer on May 13, 2006 at 1:04 PM | PERMALINK

"Bush just lost Mel Gibson' support."

Gibson has *always* been a liberal fairy and a Bush hater!

Posted by: Al on May 13, 2006 at 1:09 PM | PERMALINK

Let's hope the anti-Bush Democrat candidates use this issue in the November elections.

Talk about snatching defeat from the jaws of victory!

Posted by: Frequency Kenneth on May 13, 2006 at 1:12 PM | PERMALINK

Even the hypothetical example in WaPo does not justify warrantless monitoring of domestic phone calls.

If Mohammed Atta calls A, no judge in USA will have the slightest reservation in granting a warrant to follow the telephone link from A to B to C or D or whatever.

The WaPo article is a lame attempt at post-facto justification of a possibly illegal program.

Posted by: lib on May 13, 2006 at 1:15 PM | PERMALINK

But where is Woodward in this? Could it be he was linked all along with a far right cabal who thought Nixon to progressive?

This poll nails the frequency, Kenneth. GOP=wimpering, fear-addled, greedy SOBs. Then there is everyone else trying to save the country. These programs are a huge waste of money to collect political information. They have nothing to do with security. On its face, even this poll is flawed because its takes the administration seriously on part of this issue (that this was done for national security--that is a COVER story we'll discover soon). Ken Tomlinson could also have been the NSA head. That is why this administration is so dysfunctional. The war on terror has not changed in character from Clinton's tenure--it has just been exaggerated into a nebulous goody-creator by these corporate minions. (Props to Sea Lab 2021).

Posted by: Sparko on May 13, 2006 at 1:24 PM | PERMALINK

And Kenny Boy: because they lie with such frequency, it is impossible to believe the administration's most basic pronouncements, from terror to travel bans. The biggest beneficiary of terror has been Big Oil and oil-related industry. The Middle East is in ruins. America's savings are non-existent, and our civil liberties were outsourced to Choice Point.

Sigh.

Posted by: Sparko on May 13, 2006 at 1:29 PM | PERMALINK

What this really brings to the forefront is the need to compare the two polls, and the methodology used in both polls. While this is just a suspicion on my part, I believe that the WaPo poll will be savaged as political shilling, further displaying the desperation that BushCo supporters now seem to resort to, to defend The Glorious Leader and Deputy Leader.

The two polls should be held under the light of day, side by side. The truth will once again show BushCo as the useless, deceitful, bag of hot air PR that it is.

Posted by: jcricket on May 13, 2006 at 1:30 PM | PERMALINK

Frequency nailed Santorum's dog!

Posted by: trifecta on May 13, 2006 at 1:33 PM | PERMALINK

It is apparent that more Republicans took part in this poll than any other group. I make this calculation according to the fact that the percentage of Democrats in disagreement with Bush's policy is larger than the number of Republicans who do agree, while the number of Independents who disagree is greater than the poll's aggregate. Ergo, this poll includes a disproportionate number of Republican responses and does not truly measure the national feeling on the issue, which is more strongly against Bush's policy than the poll indicates.

Posted by: jmk on May 13, 2006 at 1:35 PM | PERMALINK

jcricket
I believe that the WaPo poll will be savaged as political shilling...

I think the WaPo poll will be buried by hundreds of other polls, and will go to that place where things go when they are forgotten from the public consciousness (Erik Estrada's house?).

Posted by: Red State Mike on May 13, 2006 at 1:35 PM | PERMALINK

Al,
Life will be so much easier for you if you bother to check out the claims of people you currently pass on without skepticism.

http://thinkprogress.org/2006/05/13/falkenrath-wrong/

The telcos are going to end up paying billions for this, and you'll be left looking the fool for defending the indefensible with the specious.

As usual, I might add.

Posted by: Jonathan on May 13, 2006 at 1:36 PM | PERMALINK

Let's hope the anti-Bush Democrat candidates use this issue in the November elections.

You can always tell which idiots listen to wing nut talk radio. They live in a fantacy world where only Democrats are "anti-Bush." To them 31% is a "mandate."

Posted by: Mike S on May 13, 2006 at 1:39 PM | PERMALINK

off-topic, another post about fuel, this one military:

http://www.nytimes.com/2006/05/14/us/14fuel.html?hp&ex=1147579200&en=f8857655ffb8a285&ei=5094&partner=homepage

Posted by: republicrat on May 13, 2006 at 1:40 PM | PERMALINK

Sparko >"...These programs are a huge waste of money to collect political information. They have nothing to do with security..."

Spot on !

All part of the rat fu*king side of the FratBoy Wars we are suffering through

"There are three kinds of men:
1. The ones that learn by reading.
2. The few who learn by observation.
3. The rest of them have to pee on the electric fence for themselves." - Will Rogers

Posted by: daCascadian on May 13, 2006 at 1:45 PM | PERMALINK

To them 31% is a "mandate."

Or 29%.

Posted by: gq on May 13, 2006 at 1:49 PM | PERMALINK

Red State --

You may be right. But I am looking forward to see if Jon Stewart and The Colbert Report give it it's "just reward". The light of day -- on late night Comedy Central. It works for me!

Posted by: jcricket on May 13, 2006 at 1:51 PM | PERMALINK

Is it just me, or are the Bush-loving, dead-ender, 29-percenters getting shriller and more defensive every day?

I don't really blame them. It's tough to be a wingnut opinion handler right now. How do you keep the online base in line when so many of them are seeing things for the way they are?

It's an impossible task, and I'm sure even getting paid to troll on liberal blogs can't make up for the frustration.

Posted by: Misc on May 13, 2006 at 2:00 PM | PERMALINK

how could the washington post have gotten it so incredibly, deeply wrong with their poll when all previous polling reflected the newsweek results. inquiring minds ...

http://www.pollingreport.com/terror.htm

and whyever would they publish an op ed by someone who doesn't have a fucking clue. inquiring minds ...

The Right Call on Phone Records
The NSA's Program Safeguards Security -- and Civil Liberties

By Richard A. Falkenrath
Saturday, May 13, 2006; Page A17

On Thursday, USA Today reported that three U.S. telecommunications companies have been voluntarily providing the National Security Agency with anonymized domestic telephone records -- that is, records stripped of individually identifiable data, such as names and place of residence. If true, the architect of this program deserves our thanks and probably a medal. That architect was presumably Gen. Michael Hayden, former director of the NSA and President Bush's nominee to become director of the Central Intelligence Agency.

The writer is a fellow at the Brookings Institution. He was deputy homeland security adviser and deputy assistant to the president until May 2004. He has no official knowledge of the program in question.

Posted by: linda on May 13, 2006 at 2:09 PM | PERMALINK

Linda,
There's a simple explanation, and one that involves looking at Richard Morin (the WaPo's pollster) and his previous statements implying a strong urge to defend George Bush.

It also involves looking at their editorial board's evinced tendency to 1) public editorials that defend the administration's indefensible actions, 2) make clearly counterfactual statements, even when those statements are contradicted by their own paper's reporting, and 3) defend all of that with a policy that explicitly allows editorials that are free from any and all fact-checking.

Posted by: Jonathan on May 13, 2006 at 2:14 PM | PERMALINK

Obviously, these "questionable" programs are necessary and effective. I mean, look at all of the terrorists they've located here in the U.S. over the past 5 years.

Look at all of the planned attacks that have been nipped in the bud.

Look at all of the successful prosecutions of terrorists in the last 5 years.

Oh wait. I'm terribly confused...

Posted by: Ranger Jay on May 13, 2006 at 2:30 PM | PERMALINK

That question #14 still doesn't mention 'secret,' 'warrantless,' 'uncertain legality,' 'without oversight,' etc.

I'm curious to see how much of a difference including any of the above would make . . .

Posted by: Dan S. on May 13, 2006 at 2:48 PM | PERMALINK

Hayden's confirmation hearings will probably drive support down.

I'm guessing there will be a new poll soon that shows even less support for the program. And, less support as the weeks go by.

Posted by: Tilli (Mojave Desert) on May 13, 2006 at 2:53 PM | PERMALINK

Speaking off terror and travel bans, Sparko...has anyone noticed any Orange, Yellow or Red terror alerts since the election. Am I just not getting the memos anymore?

Posted by: scott on May 13, 2006 at 3:01 PM | PERMALINK

(At the risk of helping Al in any way whatsoever...)

The "Don't Know"s on those two questions look pretty funny. That is, how does 5, 6, 2 in the beakouts turn into 6 in the overall. Similarly, 2, 5, 4 becomes 5. Either there's some pretty interesting rounding going on, or the sample was pretty strong on (self-declared?) Democrats.

(As I have been advised to always do) I clicked through, but there was no raw data available.

On the other hand, how does a possible over-sample of Democrats jibe with a 35% approval for the Misleader?

I'm not sayin'...I'm just sayin'

Posted by: Robert Earle on May 13, 2006 at 3:45 PM | PERMALINK

Don't you understand- to protect freedom, we have to have less of it. Al Qaeda hates us for our freedom, so if we get rid of our freedom, they'll stop hating us.

You just have to trust the Bush admininistration. They're much, much smarter than they look.

Posted by: clb72 on May 13, 2006 at 3:53 PM | PERMALINK

You just have to trust the Bush admininistration. They're much, much smarter than they look.

They couldn't be any dumber. I for one welcome the New American Kakistocracy.

Posted by: Otto Man on May 13, 2006 at 4:11 PM | PERMALINK

I'd be curious to know what percentage of respondents identified as Republican, Democratic or Independent in each of the polls.

I'm guessing as others think about it, they'll become more suspicious. My first reaction was sanguine: Bush is the WORST president in US history & the Dems are an impotent pack, but I have nothing specific to fear--at least as long as the target was terrorists rather than me Bushbashing with friends.

But then I began to wonder what possible use could they make of billions of phone records? Phone call patterns alone would mean nothing without some kind of organizing theory. You would absolutely need some starting point--Mohammed Atta's phone number, eg, and then you could track the network of calls. But if you knew the phone number of a known terrorist, you could get FISA warrant, no problem.

So why the secrecy? Why the need to circumvent the established legal process? I mean the feds can't even keep track of people who overstay their US visas--I am supposed to believe they can pinpoint terrorists by their phone usage? And I keep wondering about six degrees of separation. So terrorist a calls his contact in Hollywood who calls Kevin Bacon who calls his cousin who calls my neighbor who calls me. I'm going to be under suspicion then?

Survival rule #1: Never trust anything Bushco says or does.

Still I have to confess that the researcher in me is weak. I keep thinking, Gosh, what a cool data base.

Posted by: PTate in MN on May 13, 2006 at 4:55 PM | PERMALINK

Of course I think Bush should be impeached, hounded out of the country, and forced to wear sack cloth and ashes for all the horrible things he has done to this country since he stole the 2000 election.

Still, the really bad parties here are the phone companies, and you know, they'll sell this data to anyone, so the government getting their hands on it is not too surprising. What this whole kerfluffle really shows is how much privacy you have in this country (not).

Posted by: Cal Gal on May 13, 2006 at 5:36 PM | PERMALINK

What else could they do with this data?

How about hand it over to oh-so-trustworthy music, movie and other companies for going after music downloaders, going after corporate whistleblowers, or just about any other use under the sun?

How about handing the data over to France upon request?

Come on, Al. I'm just dying to see you defend that.

Posted by: Jonathan on May 13, 2006 at 5:37 PM | PERMALINK

It certainly looks like, in the short term, the Bush approval rating has further to fall. Only 25-26% of Republicans are with the prez on this one. Yowza.

Posted by: diddy on May 13, 2006 at 5:44 PM | PERMALINK

Big Brother and his Ma Bell were caught in bed together. What will be the offspring?

Posted by: slanted tom on May 13, 2006 at 5:55 PM | PERMALINK

I know how you feel Kevin. We had a poll in our paper just a day ago and I couldn't believe that until the very end, responders who believed the NSA action was justified were winning. Unreal how easily we will give up our freedoms.

Posted by: LR on May 13, 2006 at 6:44 PM | PERMALINK

"I'd be curious to know what percentage of respondents identified as Republican, Democratic or Independent in each of the polls."

D2. Now I have just a few more questions so we can describe the people who took part in our survey Regardless of how you might have voted in recent elections, in politics TODAY, do you consider yourself a Republican, Democrat, or Independent?

27 Republican
37 Democrat
32 Independent
1 No party/Not interested in politics (Vol)
1 Other party (Vol.)
2 Don't know
________
100

Posted by: data on May 13, 2006 at 6:49 PM | PERMALINK

"the Electronic Communications Privacy Act of 1986 explicitly permits telecommunications companies to provide customer records to the government if the government asks for them."
This is not true. This act forbids phone companies from giving out phone records, with the exception,any emergency involving danger of death or serious physical injury. In such a situation,the "provider in good faith" may give the requested phone records to a government official.

Posted by: JT on May 13, 2006 at 9:22 PM | PERMALINK

Billmon's already said it: you don't put the Bill of Rights up for a vote.

Posted by: RT on May 13, 2006 at 9:36 PM | PERMALINK

Bad habits."

Posted by: Drum and Drummer on May 14, 2006 at 1:32 AM | PERMALINK

Are we behind the Iron Curtain???? Just watching ABC, FOX and the ususal suspects this morning (Sunday) there is total damage control going on. Laura Bush on one channel, Cheyne's daughter on the other.

Now the poll about how 63% of Americans are ok about the illegeal tapping.

Am I missing something???? SHOW ME THE 63%. I am alarmed and scared. This is not the US I know or want.

Posted by: Alarmed on May 14, 2006 at 10:44 AM | PERMALINK

We all know a list of our phone numbers exist somewhere, heck anyone could buy them on the internet for $25!! The lefty freaks are calling this privacy issues, but had no problem with Hollywood going after Granny for $250,000 because they think she download a song, getting a $250 for not wearing seat belts, criminals and wealthy star with bodyguards have access to guns, but citizens do not. The libs cannot have it both ways: Bush knew and is not keeping us safe (Clinton, Reid, Schumer) or they are scaring us and invading our privacy. When you wake up, let us know. Most American have needed ID to cash a check, drive a car, or register our kids at school. There is a record of everything. No one is listening to boring democrats talk to eachother.

Posted by: Karen on May 14, 2006 at 7:02 PM | PERMALINK

There was really nothing that wrong with the NBC/Wash. Post poll other than it had only 502 people who responded. The Newsweek poll had twice as many at 1007.

Also, there is the subject of push polling again where the question is asked in such a way to get the favorable result sought. For example: "If there is absolute, undeniable proof that terrorists are going to destroy the world with a doomsday bomb tomorrow but acquiring your telephone records would absolutely stop them from doing so, would you agree that the government should have a right to those records?" Duh!

Posted by: Richard on May 14, 2006 at 8:39 PM | PERMALINK

We have a new troll!

Welcome Karen! Keep spewing stupid shit - we are not stupid liberals, and we will pick your pathetic bones clean in short order!

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