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Tilting at Windmills

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May 31, 2006
By: Kevin Drum

THE LATEST ON IRAN....The Bush administration is reversing course despite Tony Snow's desperate denial that any such thing is taking place and has agreed to direct talks with Iran. Good for them

I guess. Because of course there's a catch. As I said a few weeks ago about awkward diplomatic initiatives:

The usual response, if talks are unwelcome, is to demand some kind of obviously unacceptable precondition for the proposed meeting. This forces the other country to make concessions before negotiations have begun, and since no one is stupid enough to do that, it derails the talks nicely.

And that's exactly how it's playing out. The United States is demanding that Iran halt its nuclear program first, and only then will we join the Europeans in talks.

Here's hoping it works. It might, especially if it's true that Iran is having troubles with its uranium enrichment program and wouldn't really lose anything by halting it for a while. Still, this is straight out of the Diplomacy 101 playbook as a way of responding to pressure to look reasonable without actually running the risk of reaching a peaceful agreement. Stay tuned.

Kevin Drum 12:01 PM Permalink | Trackbacks | Comments (50)

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Comments

I await the WH's demand that Iran remove the letter "M" from the alphabet.

Posted by: craigie on May 31, 2006 at 12:09 PM | PERMALINK

Well, not just yet. You don't introduce a new product when everyone is on vacation. But yeah - I fully expect the political, er, bombing campaign to begin in September.

Posted by: craigie on May 31, 2006 at 12:15 PM | PERMALINK

There'll be no military engagement with Iran. Our next big adventure will be in Latin America.

Posted by: john dri on May 31, 2006 at 12:18 PM | PERMALINK

The fact that it became public at all told me that the Bush administration wasn't interested in seriously talking with Iran, but only was engaged in yet more self-serving PR.

Posted by: David W. on May 31, 2006 at 12:19 PM | PERMALINK

there will indeed be a "military engagement" with Iran

are you enlisting ?

Posted by: cleek on May 31, 2006 at 12:22 PM | PERMALINK

If the demand that they halt their 'nucular' program doesn't work, aWol could always argue about the size and shape of the table to be used during negotiations.

Posted by: Hedley Lamarr on May 31, 2006 at 12:24 PM | PERMALINK

"There'll be no military engagement with Iran. Our next big adventure will be in Latin America."

Didn't Jon Stewart just suggest that we were going to incorporate Mexico and together invade Canada?

Posted by: Hedley Lamarr on May 31, 2006 at 12:26 PM | PERMALINK

Hey, demanding they do what we want before we'll talk to them about what it is we want them to do is straight out of the North Korea playbook, and it worked SO well there...

Posted by: kerri miller on May 31, 2006 at 12:34 PM | PERMALINK

So until Iran stops enrichment will the Administration enter talks about stopping enrichment?

I guess there are enough people who think this is newsworthy and represents statesmanship.

Note to neocons: Iran has us by the short ones thanks to your ludicrous invasion. Holding up a shit sandwich and calling it poker of aces isn't working.

Posted by: Uli Kunkel on May 31, 2006 at 12:46 PM | PERMALINK

A lot of people have been telling us how they've learned from how they were fooled in 2002-2003.

Well, here's their chance to prove it, because the American run-up to a war of aggression is always the same.

So, just watch Peter Beinart and the rest of the "won't-get-fooled-again" crowd, and see if they make any sharp demands for real evidence when the fifes and drums begin to play.

But don't hold your breath, or you may faint and injure yourself as you fall. Better to save the fainting for the day you actually see them poke a hole in some of the war propaganda banners.

Posted by: serial catowner on May 31, 2006 at 12:47 PM | PERMALINK

kerri -- x-posted.

Posted by: Uli Kunkel on May 31, 2006 at 12:51 PM | PERMALINK

I await the WH's demand that Iran swap the letters "n" and "q" in the alphabet.

Posted by: jerry on May 31, 2006 at 1:00 PM | PERMALINK

The high price for refusing such a proposal has to be made absolutely clear to the US leadership: Should no agreement be reached, the West should do everything in its power to isolate the United States economically, financially, technologically and diplomatically, with the full support of the international community. The United States' alternatives should be no less than recognition and security of Iran or total isolation.

Posted by: Hostile on May 31, 2006 at 1:01 PM | PERMALINK

What?

Two fundametalist conservative governments are going to talk to each other?

Sory, It'll never happen...

Ahmadinejad and Bush are two fucks of the same coin.
They are both stuffed of themselves, and little else...

Posted by: koreyel on May 31, 2006 at 1:03 PM | PERMALINK

Ho-hum: more dead young Americans so that Bush and his cronies can get rich through oil/gasoline and military contracts/thefts. Awol/Bush probably just thinks that most of the soldiers are poor young black men without a hope anyway and so if they die as cannon fodder in his unrelenting desire to get richer and enrich his buddies then what does it really matter anyway.

Posted by: Where's osama on May 31, 2006 at 1:07 PM | PERMALINK

"P.S. Uli Kunkel - you think a massive military force "pre-staged" in the neighboring country is having the U.S. by "the short ones"? LOL"

I think the Iranian phrase for our presence in Iraq is "pre-chewed". I also think we need more competent trolls.

Posted by: Uli Kunkel on May 31, 2006 at 1:10 PM | PERMALINK

LOL - unless they comply, as a last resort of course and not at all timed to coincide with Election Day (November 7th this year), there will indeed be a "military engagement" with Iran ; )

Charlie takes the same perverse pleasure in the Bush Administration's warmongering as he does in joking about Democrats' dead kids. Disgusting.

Posted by: Gregory on May 31, 2006 at 1:12 PM | PERMALINK

P.S. Uli Kunkel - you think a massive military force "pre-staged" in the neighboring country is having the U.S. by "the short ones"? LOL

Wow...this post is a serious contender for Charlie/Cheney/Chuckles' most reality-challenged posts ever -- and that's a bold statement!

Posted by: Gregory on May 31, 2006 at 1:15 PM | PERMALINK

"Wow...this post is a serious contender for Charlie/Cheney/Chuckles' most reality-challenged posts ever -- and that's a bold statement!"

I sometimes wonder if these trolls are Kevin D. himself, just trying to keep the hit counter humming. They're good for a smirk, anyway.

Posted by: Uli Kunkel on May 31, 2006 at 1:19 PM | PERMALINK

I really have no idea who this "Charlie" fellow is, but he certainly sound unpleasant - I am against everything from abortion to making jokes about any dead kids (regardless of their parents' political registration).

Charlie's obsession with abortion, as well as his reflexive dishonesty, are always dead giveaways.

But you're right, Charlie -- your purpose here is to be unpleasant, isn't it?

Posted by: Gregory on May 31, 2006 at 1:32 PM | PERMALINK

your purpose here is to be unpleasant, isn't it?

One might even say it's your job... ;)

Posted by: Gregory on May 31, 2006 at 1:37 PM | PERMALINK

Check out Yahoo headlines right now:

Coalition troops kill two Iraqi women

WTF?

Why are they going to start reporting this stuff now ?

Where were they the last 3 years?

In other words:

It is a little too late to try to give this country a conscience now.

One last point:

I was wrong up above about Iran-USA talks.
It can possibly happen.
And that's because Bush has failed in Iraq.

The willingness to negotiate with Iran is in direct proportion to the USA's failures in Iraq.

Having lost Iraq, Bush is now negotiating from weakness.

This is both good and bad news.

Good because the administration at leasts realizes internally that Iraq is lost.

Bad because they cannot admit this outloud and so the pretenses continue... just like in Vietnam.

Posted by: koreyel on May 31, 2006 at 1:47 PM | PERMALINK

At the risk of returning to the topic, Kevin's prediction re: the Bush Adminisration imposing preconditions on negotiation was spot-on, and I agree that the intent is to preempt the negotiations themselves. The sad thing is that this time, it's the US that needs the negotiations more than Iran, whose response in the face of Bush's hollow, feckless bluster can be described as "You and what army?" Yet another reason Republicans can't be trusted with national security.

Posted by: Gregory on May 31, 2006 at 1:51 PM | PERMALINK

IIRC, Iran agreed to stop its enrichment program in exchange for security guarantees.

The EU wanted to do this, but we don't.

Yet we can't do anything about it. Another North Korea in the making.

Our leaders are idiots.

Posted by: Horatio Parker on May 31, 2006 at 2:01 PM | PERMALINK

you think a massive military force "pre-staged" in the neighboring country is having the U.S. by "the short ones"? LOL

The LOL is at you, Dick(head). So the "massive military force" is free to leave Iraq at any time to invade Iran? It seems to me that they have their hands full where they are.

If 130,000 troops aren't enough to secure Iraq, how the hell do they accomplish it in a much stronger country? But don't let real-world concerns affect you, Dick(head), after all, it's not your well-being that's at risk.

Posted by: MeLoseBrain? on May 31, 2006 at 2:31 PM | PERMALINK

Horatio Parker:
Maybe they're no idiots, just have a different agenda.

Posted by: Jrgen in Germany on May 31, 2006 at 2:36 PM | PERMALINK

My Bush-loathing credentials are as good as anyone's, but this, along with the new Treasury Secretary selection, have to be seen as encouraging signs. I don't expect either reflects a major change in direction. But I think they do reflect a slowdown in the momentum to gratuitously break things -- a pretty slight accomplishment, but better than anything the administration has done in years.

Posted by: sglover on May 31, 2006 at 3:17 PM | PERMALINK

Jrgen in Germany

Yes their agenda is a different one, and in terms of international relations, it also is idiotic.

To sacrifice national security for short term political gain is idiocy.

Posted by: Horatio Parker on May 31, 2006 at 3:54 PM | PERMALINK

President Ahmadinejad. How can we have talks if we cannot pronnounce the guys name?

President 'Hey Mud In Jo Head'

Posted by: Matt on May 31, 2006 at 4:06 PM | PERMALINK

Gosh I was going to write a skeptical sarcastic comment, but I guess I don't have to now, given all those who beat me to it. W will be serious about negotiating with Iran when hell freezes over (not when the polar ice caps melt which will be in a few years).

Posted by: anonymous on May 31, 2006 at 5:21 PM | PERMALINK

Rice's remarks make clear that there has been no change...

The precondition for talks may be achievable: ...as soon as Iran fully and verifiably suspends its enrichment and reprocessing activities...

The precondition for substance is the real non-starter: The nuclear issue is not the only obstacle standing in the way of improved relations.

Posted by: has407 on May 31, 2006 at 5:31 PM | PERMALINK

How could we not have made the suspension of enrichment a precondition?

Presumably when talks start, the motion for UNSC sanctions stops. If Iran can go on enriching, then they have every incentive to drag the talks out, and keep enriching. It just gives them more time to get closer to nuclear weapons.

Suspension of enrichment isnt THE substantive issue, since it does NOT require them to give up the RIGHT to enrichment. It just freezes the current situation. In the same way that Israel isnt supposed to build new settlements while final boundaries are discussed under the Oslo process.

I know some hawkish Israelis who thought that was unreasonable, and was forfeiting the game in advance. Im surprised to find most folks here agree with that POV.

Posted by: liberalhawk on May 31, 2006 at 5:42 PM | PERMALINK

"...responding to pressure to look reasonable without actually running the risk of reaching a peaceful agreement"

That IS a significant risk, though. Reaching a peaceful agreement would mean leaving crazy Ahmadinejad in place, with nukes.

Let's look reasonable for another few months, then destroy every nuclear facility they have, including research labs.

Posted by: pieter on May 31, 2006 at 6:08 PM | PERMALINK

"Suspension of enrichment isnt THE substantive issue, since it does NOT require them to give up the RIGHT to enrichment. It just freezes the current situation. In the same way that Israel isnt supposed to build new settlements while final boundaries are discussed under the Oslo process."

Yeah, the U.S. has a great record at respecting international agreements; I'm sure our word is gold with the Iranians.

Thucydides distilled foreign policy 2 millenia ago: "the strong do what they can and the weak suffer what they must." One guess, liberalhawk, who the weak side is in the U.S. vs. Iran matchup. The Iraq domino did not fall; we are SOL.

Posted by: Uli Kunkel on May 31, 2006 at 6:41 PM | PERMALINK

"Let's look reasonable for another few months, then destroy every nuclear facility they have, including research labs."

How can we fail when we have Superman on our side? With his supersonic speed, x-ray vision and steel-melting eye-rays, the Iranians don't stand a chance.

Have you ever noticed that Negroponte and Superman are never seen together ...?

Posted by: Uli Kunkel on May 31, 2006 at 6:47 PM | PERMALINK

liberalhawk: Suspension of enrichment isnt THE substantive issue, since it does NOT require them to give up the RIGHT to enrichment. It just freezes the current situation. In the same way that Israel isnt supposed to build new settlements while final boundaries are discussed under the Oslo process.

If Iran enrichment is analogous to Israel building settlements, then verifiable suspension of enrichment by Iran is good. Asking Iran to give up the right, as opposed to the actual act, of enrichment before negotiations is analagous to requiring Israel to pull out of, and declaim any right to, the disputed territores before determining the final boundaries and an agreed peace.

In any case, Iran's rights are recognized by everyone involved; it's not a question of requiring them to give up those rights, which is a non-starter all around, but:

  • Guarantees and incentives to convince them to give up those activities, which has been the EU3 position.
  • Guarantees sufficient to allow those activities to continue (or resume in the future after suspension), while ensuring they were only for peaceful purposes, which has been Tehran's position.
  • Cesssation of those activities with no guarantees or incentives, and continuing and possibly increased disincentives (already in progress), which has been the US position.
What a EU3-US-China-Russia hybrid might look like--which was expected last week and appears to be in limbo--is anyone's guess.

Posted by: has407 on May 31, 2006 at 7:00 PM | PERMALINK

"What a EU3-US-China-Russia hybrid might look like--which was expected last week and appears to be in limbo--is anyone's guess."

Only an economic blockade in the form of comprehensive sanctions would be a big enough threat to Iran, and Russia and China aren't likely to agree to it. They're enjoying our fuck-up across the border too much to help out.

Posted by: Uli Kunkel on May 31, 2006 at 7:05 PM | PERMALINK

our 130,000 "pre positioned troops" are 130,000 hostages, nothing more.
Viet vet. Combat vet.....enlisted. As in volunteered. And you aint enlisted WHY, now? Why exactly??? If you support this crap, and are under 27- aint you AINT joining up- you are one sorry assed weasel. & the creeps you apologize for are sorry assed chickenhawks. Period.

Posted by: MUTT on May 31, 2006 at 8:19 PM | PERMALINK

Saudi Arabia supposedly has a secret nuclear program and they can not even make a pretense of a civil program. Why no media hype? Is a Saudi nuclear weapon any the less dangerous than an Iranian one?

Posted by: bblog on May 31, 2006 at 10:20 PM | PERMALINK

Kevin, your post is probably right, but here are some comments:

1. If Bush was really serious about talking to Iran, couldn't we have done it before they started enriching unanium? It was an option available to us. Now that Iran has begun enriching uranium they can't really stop; they'd lose face. Either we were never serious about talking to Iran, the Administration didn't have a negotiation strategy, or they called Iran's bluff thinking they would never start enriching uranium but guessed wrong. My guess is all three of these happened.

2. Assuming Bush is behaving in good faith, this Administration is really rotten at negotiating. It almost seems like every step of the way the Adminstration has done exactly the opposite of what was necessary to attain the goal of a nuclear free Iran. Bush first threatens them, won't promise not to invade them, and then refuses to negotiate with them before they begin enrichment, but then says he will negotiate with them if they stop. I don't buy it. From Iran's point of view they had little choice. Whether we like it or not, their politicians have duties to their citizens to protect them and, arguably, nuclear weapons development in the wake of threats from America is not an unreasonable response.

3. Even assuming Bush is behaving in good faith, he really doesn't have a clue on how to reach a negotiated deal. Perhaps if they looked at the situation from Iran's point of view they'd have a better plan. Simply winging it, which is what seems to be happeneing, isn't going to get the result

4. The end result of this Administrations' policy in Iran is simply going to be either Iran continues to enrich uranium and obtain nuclear weapson or invade. Either choice is unacceptable and either choice was avoidable. Unfortuantely, the current Adminstration is clueless and the bad results are to be expected. It's happened in virtually every other policy decision they have made over a myriad of areas, why would this be any different.

Posted by: William Jensen on May 31, 2006 at 10:33 PM | PERMALINK

This Bush administration hasn't negotiated an agreement in its entire time in power. They have broken treaties, unilaterally, and issued ultimatums to both foreign governments and Democrats in Congress, but they have never given and taken together with anyone. Their approach has been "my way or the highway."

When negotiations with Iran, inevitably, "break down" and Bush decides to bomb Iran, will Mr. Drum believe that this was a sincere effort on Bush's part, or merely a public relations ploy for Americans who really don't know their asses from their elbows, have no business voting at all, but do anyway?

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Posted by: biu on May 31, 2006 at 10:58 PM | PERMALINK

William Jensen: If Bush was really serious about talking to Iran, couldn't we have done it before they started enriching unanium? It was an option available to us.

Good question. Why are the conditions of the Paris Agreement, under which Iran voluntarily ceased enrichment activities during negotiations with the EU3 last year (with Washington's concurrance), acceptable now as a an ostensible basis for direct US involvement, but were unacceptable then? One answer: they weren't then and aren't now acceptable; Washington's acceptance of the previous EU3 discussions was no more and no less than a tacit acceptance of lack of ideas, alternatives or leadership.

The administration, as Rice has stated, is not williing to separate the nuclear issue from broader issues of the legitimacy of Tehran. A question which the neocons continue to conflate is whether acceptance of the current regime in Tehran is acceptable given a quid-pro-quo of verifiable assurances that Iran's nuclear program has either ceased, or is peaceful. At the moment, the strategy appears to be no more than to use the nuclear issue to rationalize greater pressure on the regime in Tehran, with Tehran of course pushing back.

So the question remains: Is the administration serious about solving Iran's potential pursuit of nukes, seperate and distinct from Tehran's legitimacy? Unfortunately, the answer seems no.

Posted by: has407 on May 31, 2006 at 11:17 PM | PERMALINK

The essential consideration that's missing from all these posts is Iran's security.

If the US position is one of regime change, why should they suspend anything? If the US position is not one of regime change, why not guarantee Iran's security, if it gets us what we want?

Does anyone seriously think, with the mess in Iraq, that we can demand regime change AND cessation of nuclear activities?

Posted by: Horatio Parker on June 1, 2006 at 1:23 AM | PERMALINK

Iran is calling Bush's bluff, because they know Bush won't lift a finger to threaten them, since:
1) The war in Iraq was never about 9-11 or WMDs, the axis of evil be damned.
2) Our forces are tied up in Iraq and Afghanistan, and we simply don't have the resources to launch another attack without resorting to something like the draft.
3) Iran never did anything to the Bushes. They have no grudge against them. Bush's friend Reagan sold weapons to Iran. And actually, the hostage crisis cost Carter the election, which helped put Bush 1 on the path to the Presidency.

Posted by: Andy on June 1, 2006 at 3:10 AM | PERMALINK

cheney will circumvent any sanctions just like he did with iraq. after all gotta make money for halliburton and who cares who dies? it won't be a bush or cheney that's for sure

Posted by: merlallen on June 1, 2006 at 8:14 AM | PERMALINK

"Presumably when talks start, the motion for UNSC sanctions stops. If Iran can go on enriching, then they have every incentive to drag the talks out, and keep enriching. It just gives them more time to get closer to nuclear weapons."

No, liberalhawk. Iran has the right to enrich under the NPT, which they've followed, while avoiding any acts of aggression against their neighbors. Remember, it was the US and Britain (under Dulles and Churchill) that overthrew Mohammed Mossadegh in Iran in 1953, who was democratically elected. We're the ones who got this whole mess going, and the Iranians have every reason to distrust us.

There are reasons to be concerned about the possible end-points of said enrichment and I, for one, have some apprehension about the notion of a nuclear Iran, but the burden falls on the US to give them a decent-enough reason to stop it-- things like security guarantees, among other things.

Condoleezza Rice obviously was not making a good faith offer here, it's little more than a classic propaganda device to make the other side look unreasonable (in the eyes of naive idiots in the press who don't think this thing through), while in fact offering up an impossible condition in the first place. To be fair, Madeleine Albright did some of the same sorts of things with Serbia in 1999 (that referendum demand on Kosovo), but then, to be equally fair, Bill Clinton actually realized the bombing campaign wasn't working and acceded to two of the three Serb requests to halt it. Kosovo right now is still a mess with the KLA, as thuggist as the Serb secret police, in basic control, but it could have been much worse.

President AWOL in contrast and the idiots supporting him, like Dick Cheney and Condi Rice, continue to push the same fiasco in Iraq, while working on a brand-new over-fresh fiasco in Iran. It's obvious the US has no intention of negotiating with Iran, which the US media seems to be too doltishly gullible to realize here--

http://atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/HF02Ak03.html

Supposedly agreeing to negotiations on a contentious issue, while demanding at the forefront that the other side accept your position on the issue, is bullshit negotiating. Don't think for a minute that Russia is fooled by it.

Posted by: Wes on June 1, 2006 at 1:22 PM | PERMALINK

Iran is calling Bush's bluff, because they know Bush won't lift a finger to threaten them, since:
1) The war in Iraq was never about 9-11 or WMDs, the axis of evil be damned.
2) Our forces are tied up in Iraq and Afghanistan, and we simply don't have the resources to launch another attack without resorting to something like the draft.

I agree that we don't have the resources for any kind of ground action, but we've got one carrier group in the Med and two more heading into striking distance of Iran. Our fighter-bombers are suppposed to begin "over the shoulder" bombing exercises in the month of June. So look for some real world tests of our new bunker buster bombs just before the election.

Here's to hoping we don't use tactical nukes to get at the hardened defenses.


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