Where is "Grover" these days? Did he drown in a bathtub or something?

No, that can't be right. All the liberal bloggers are dumb, dumb, dumb, lunatic loony fringe-left liberals with no connection to reality.

Yep, the media is right not to listen to anyone but Republican operatives. They are truly keyed into what's going on in the real world.

Ignore the bloggers! They don't understand how the REAL WORLD works!

you'll notice that Broder seems to deliberately miss Kevin's point by mentioning 2 scandals -- Cunningham and Jefferson's freezer -- that aren't directly tied to the Administration, one of which isn't a republican (for balance, of course). Kevin actually mentioned Valerie Plame, which Broder doesn't acknowledge. And he doesn't mention any of the administration appointee scandals at all, like current GSA trial, Abramoff, DeLay, etc.

Reading Broder's column is instructive - he just glides by responsibility for the basic incompetence.

The Bush administration "just can't catch a break". And Kevin was right about the scandals is true. But what that avoids is that the administrations failures are also directly tied to one thing: every major policy initiative is turning into a disaster. Tax cuts are turning out tides of red ink. Iraq is falling apart, Afganistan is great if you're a heroin user, etc.

The whole meme of scandals avoids the basic question: does these guys have any competency running a government? And of course the answer is NO. And Broder loudly asserted that the answer was YES before the 2000 election.

Wow, Gratz, Kevin. Today, it is obvious that Bush had to do down that way, but in September 2004, almost nobody would have bet on such a future.
Great analysis!

It's not as if both Drum and Grover can't be proved to right by 2008, given the type of leaders we have in the Democratic Party.

It the Democratic Party is Toast, then the GOP is a wet saltine cracker.

Mmmmmm Toast.

In a way, it's obvious. Look at what happened to Nixon:

(secrecy + paranoia) ^ heavy-handed control = scandal.

If the Democrats are toast, the Republicans are what you find at the bottom of a glass of milk after dunking graham crackers.

Those of us who were reading Kevin when he was Calpundit before he became Political Animal, knew we were reading a seer.

Sometimes living outside the Beltway clarifies the vision wonderfully.

Congrats Kevin

You've earned the recognition.

here's one grover prediction that sort of came true...

"What the Republicans need is 50 Jack Abramoffs. Then this becomes a different town." -- Grover Norquist - National Journal, July 29, 1995

thanks to the gop and just one jack abramoff..

it did become a different town...

Hehehe! I check the predicitions from 2004 and there are some wankers in it. Hilarious!
http://www.washingtonmonthly.com/features/2004/0409.bushforum.html

"Bush Becomes a Moderate, Really"
By Mickey Edwards and Nancy Sinnott Dwight

"He will commit his administration to inventive systemic reforms that in a true "take responsibility for yourself" Republican way, address education, tax policy, health care, and retirement."
"This second-chance president will step with more caution before he leads the country into further battles, and will devote considerable energy to reforming the intelligence and defense apparatus in Washington."
"Do not look for Donald Rumsfeld or John Ashcroft to dominate a second Bush presidency as they have the first. Do not look for President Bush to hurl more flowers (such as the proposed constitutional amendment to ban gay marriage) at the feet of those who proclaim themselves to be spokesmen for American conservatives. Having found the voters willing to let him try again, George W. Bush will respond with a presidency that will make him more popular when it ends than when it began."

:D :D :D

"W. Takes on Global Warming By Gregg Easterbrook"

Man, does Easterturd ever get anything right?

The Repugs are what you find the next day after eating the toast in the crapper.

Norquist wrote:

The modern Democratic Party cannot survive the reelection of President George W. Bush and another four years of Republican control of both Congress and the White House.

. . .

The modern Democratic Party is the party of government. Its growth is the health of the state--and vice versa. Over time, all the party's building blocks are dependent on continuous support and reinforcement by the power of the central government.

Now, if he'd written the following, he'd have been exactly right . . .

[Neither America nor t]he modern [Republican] Party [can] survive the reelection of President George W. Bush and another four years of Republican control of both Congress and the White House.

. . . Just fact.

The modern [Republican] Party is the party of government. Its growth is [dependent on the growth of the state]--and vice versa. Over time, all the party's building blocks are dependent on continuous support and reinforcement by the power of the central government [through bribery, theft, influence peddling, abuse of procedure, official lying, and the abuse of the national security privileges].

you'll notice that Broder seems to deliberately miss Kevin's point

Broder has a wonderful penchant for missing points - he's a respected pundit after all!

(Rule 1: avoid upsetting the self-deceptions of self-styled masters)

Grover Norquist? Don't you mean . . . Govenor Squirt? Or maybe No Squirt Grover?

No need for modesty when you're right. Making others aware of your rightness is a public service in my opinion. And unlike many in the world of punditry, Kevin knows what the hell he's talking about. He deserves the props.

BTW, Norquist seems to have misunderstood the assignment. His piece was supposed to have been a legitimate prediction, not propoganda.

You libs sure are counting your chickens way before they're hatched, aren't you? When George W. Bush uses the last two years of his presidency to turn Iraq into a full-fledged democracy with the world's fifth-largest economy, conquer Iran, capture and execute Osama bin Laden, eliminate the budget deficit, and bring a halt to the nationwide scourge of gay marriage, all while continuing to lower taxes to their lowest rates in American history, he will be remembered as the greatest leader this country, nay, the world, has ever seen. Just you wait.

K, I have read all predicitions now, and with the exception of Norquist, Easterbrook, Edwards & Dwight, all aren't too far off themark. It seems only the right wing fortunetellers got it all wrong, but, hey, we all know thwey live in a bubble.

Imho the single most outstanding analysis is that of Kevin, indeed. He focussed on the one characterisation of Bush's second term that will be prevalent in history books: Scandal.

Great job, Kevin! Now, will you pls take another look in your crystal ball and tell us if we'll have to endure this until the end of 2008 or if Bush will go down even before the end of term?
:)

The very fact that you have political operatives from one party calling for the end of the two-party system -- whether it's Norquist's toast or Coulter's baseball bat (actually, Coulter 'is' a baseball bat) -- says all you need to know about where these guys are coming from and where they are going. Hell.

If you are going to mock American Chickenhawk, please get the talking points right: Iraq ia already a full-fledged democracy that has the insurgents desperate and on the run, it has already captured Iran just by its very existence, and next month Iraq will pay for the war in full from the massive stockpiles of oil proceeds that Cheney predicts will be found in the next few days.

"When George W. Bush uses the last two years of his presidency to turn Iraq into a full-fledged democracy with the world's fifth-largest economy, conquer Iran, capture and execute Osama bin Laden, eliminate the budget deficit, and bring a halt to the nationwide scourge of gay marriage, all while continuing to lower taxes to their lowest rates in American history, he will be remembered as the greatest leader this country, nay, the world, has ever seen."

I guess we'll see more of this stubborn denial of facts in the next years. The next two years? Even two years after the election of the next president, some brainwashed Dubya fans will insist that Bush II. had been "the greatest leader this country, nay, the world, has ever seen." I think it's time the pharmaceutical industry develops some medication against that loonacy.

Really? We have "scandals" in this country? I hadn't noticed. Maybe I was mislead by the endless parade of Republicans being arrested and tried for their crimes.

Oh wait...

Kevin missed it by a mile. The word for the future (our present) is "dictatorship" or "authoritarianism". When the naked abuse of executive power continues unabated with almost 75% of the population disapproving we left "scandal" behind long ago.

Wow. Congratulations, Kevin. I remember your prediction and at the time thought it was hopeful thinking. But come to think of it, you don't do a lot of that kind of thing. Yours was a perfectly rational bit of prognostication.

Again, congratulations.

Now, on to elections that get us out of this mess!

Not bad, Mr. Drum, not bad. But you completely missed Hillary Clinton's shocking predilection for lemon yellow outfits, you said nothing at all about how many conjugal encounters she'd average each month with her husband -- and you call yourself a pundit?!?

If you are going to mock American Chickenhawk, please get the talking points right

Thx for the tip, AfG. This reminds me of my old problem: I can't distinguish hilarious satire from serious republican taliking points any more. Hell, Stephen Colbert might really be the most authentic Bush fan of all, what do I know?
:-/

AHsi,

You forgot the part where Bush uses his position as commander and chief to take over the whole world, declares himself supreme ruler for life and we all live happily ever after in a benevolent conservative utopia.

Great job, Kevin! Now, will you pls take another look in your crystal ball and tell us if we'll have to endure this until the end of 2008 or if Bush will go down even before the end of term
I'm afraid there's no chance of shucking off GWB early - hell, it took over a year to lever Nixon out of office, with a jawdropping series of crimes & a Democratic HR/Senate

Is Broder saying that the guy who brought the disk home from the VA and got it stolen was Bush's fault?

At least Broder points out at the very end that Bush isnt part of the scandals. I wonder if Gore or Kerry were president, with the same people in Congress that are there now, doing the same things, would Broder have labeled the Democratic adminstration a "scandalous" one?

"I'm afraid there's no chance of shucking off GWB early - hell, it took over a year to lever Nixon out of office, with a jawdropping series of crimes & a Democratic HR/Senate"

If you read 'All The President's Men' you'll notice that Watergate really was a trickle of some moderate scandals, every few days a new shpcke. Very much like what we experience nowadays. Plus, the GOPlers already try to distance themselves from Bush, like they did with Tricky Dick. I don't know, I don't think it's too optimistic to think of Bush resigning from the helm. It's only one last scandal that can be tied to his person that is missing. Imho a 50% chance for another president in the next two years.
(Just in case you start wondering: No, I'm not on drugs and I'm generally a pessimistic person)

"Imho a 50% chance for another president in the next two years."
Ok, make that 25% if the Dems don't win that House majority this fall :(

"As stunningly right on your prediction for the second term as you were stunningly wrong on Iraq."

Good point, Pat!
Kevin, there are some lessons to be learned: Concentrate on domestic issues, but stay away from foreign policy, pls...

OT With the Navy building a aircraft carrier named George H.W.Bush.Will W get one named after him ,Maybe a rubber raft or a Dingy. What a Bush!!

I was gonna say something about Easterbrook's exceedingly dumb prediction that GWB would take on global warming, but Tom DC/VA beat me to it. (He does that a lot. Maybe living in MD has slowed me down.)

Easterbrook's prediction demonstrated a total lack of insight into Bush's character. Bush lives to please big business, and to give the business sector pretty much everything it wants and a pony. Doing something about global warming would involve putting restrictions on business. Not on his watch.

"would Broder have labeled the Democratic adminstration a "scandalous" one?"

rnc, you live in a bubble, too. Just check what Broder wrote about the Clinton administration's second term...

Congrats, Kevin, this was quite a good and important call.

And I don't think anyone even realizes yet just how right you were.

When Democrats get subpoena power in 2006, God willing, then we will wish that we never got so worked up over the tip of the iceberg - even if that tip already comprehends among the worst scandals in history.

We will be wishing that we had left room for our outrage to grow.

Congrats Kevin,

Pour yourself a beer and watch the motherfucker burn. I can't wait till your bird flu fears become reality.

A few years ago I saw Ed Kilgore on C-SPAN's Washington Journal with Grover Norquist. Ed Kilgore could not communicate any opposition to Norquist's neo-liberalism. I have accused the DLC darling of being Kilgore Trout ever since.

Around that same time I saw Joshua Marshall on a panel discussion about Iraq and the Bush administration's policies with Richard Perle. Marshall acted like a fearful little girl and was unable to provide any opposition to the neo-conman's 'pragmatism.' He had the opportunity to slam Perle but did not.

Perhaps Mr. Drum could have provided better arguments to the agents of destruction. I hope so.

The score is not 1-0.

Grover wished for an incompetent President, while Kevin wished for a competent President.
1-1.

Grover wished for 50 Jack Abramoffs, while Kevin wished for none.
1-2.

Grover wished for war, while Kevin wished for peace.
1-3.

If I keep going, it will be Grover in a landslide.

Yeah, but what does Broder have to say about Kevin's sex life? Inquiring minds, and all that...

The Democrats are French toast.

Geddit? French toast! Hee hee hee...I made a funny!

The children of Haditha thank you Mr. Drum.

You forgot Poland, Don't forget Poland.Oh and Mars yea Bush on Mars.HEH ha.What a Bush!!!

. . . and Congress will pass a constitutional amendment which not only repeals presidential term limits (only for Republicans) - but has a special clause making George W Bush president-for-life.

Then George W Bush will be on the $100 bill. And the 50. And the 20. And the 10. And the 5. And the 3. And the 1. (and people will still use rolled-up $100's for what people use rolled-up $100's for, only it will be especially ironic).

Then George W Bush will be carved into Mt. Rushmore, replacing all 4 previous occupants.

And the Iraqi government will vote to beg for statehood, and then Chalabi will be elected Governor.

And tax rates will be reduced to negative 20 percent, and government revenues will increase to infinity. And George W Bush will piss light sweet crude. And Jesus will come down and personally burn all liberals alive, and put his crown on George W Bush's head.

All will love him and despair.

George Bush Sr. saw his wife Barbara naked this morning, and do you know what he said? What a Bush!!!

Grover wished for war, while Kevin wished for peace.

Norquist is an odious son of a bitch, but I'm pretty sure that he was never much of an Iraq war advocate. If memory serves, he was pretty sceptical of the project from the start, because it conflicted with, and might politically jeopardize, his libertarian-ish fantasies.

> Norquist is an odious son of a bitch,
> but I'm pretty sure that he was never
> much of an Iraq war advocate.

Norquist provided the funding for the neocons and Radicals. If he was unaware of the neocons' "stir the Middle East wasps nest" theory, well, we now know how that arguement played in front of a jury (Ken Lay's).

Cranky

The people who are right lost the elections, and the people who are wrong won the elections. Fall is redemption time.

A top Republican fund-raiser who is the leading figure in an Ohio political scandal pleaded guilty on Wednesday to illegally funneling money to President George W. Bush's 2004 reelection campaign. In an appearance in federal court, rare coin dealer Tom Noe admitted to three counts of violating campaign finance laws. He wrote checks to two dozen Republican supporters so they could attend a $2,000-a-plate Bush fund-raising dinner held in the state capital of Columbus on October 30, 2003. (AP)

More election cheating by Republicans.

Yet another conviction for such cheating.

Now, if they could only get the big fish who stole two elections by fraud and criminality - Bush and Cheney.

I admit, I douted the investigative freedoms of our own government were too cowed to take on Bush, but I was wrong. Kudos to Kevin.

Dogs are still better than cats though.

I am so sorry for you Kevin! To be anointed by Broder, Dean of the Inside-The-Beltway Slimeocracy! Three thousand miles out from DC and they still got you! It is you who are toast, my friend - you're now One of Them! ;)

Naturally, Broder did not pick up on the fact that of the prognosticators, the person farthest away from DC got their prediction most right! Ahem, Dean Broder, do you see it now? Alas, I'm afraid the Dean does not read these "blog" things, certainly not the comments!

Cheers anyway Kevin! Extra Tuna Eyeball Feast for Jasmine and Inkblot!

"So far, the scandal has not involved the president personally..."

Yep that's right, the pResident barely knows Scooter Libby, Karl Rove and Shooter Cheney!

/

MNPundit writes "Dogs are still better than cats though"

That's a given.

Samuel knight wrote: The Bush administration "just can't catch a break". And Kevin was right about the scandals is true. But what that avoids is that the administrations failures are also directly tied to one thing: every major policy initiative is turning into a disaster.

Word.

I caught that "just can't catch a break" bit too. And halle, nice catch on Broder's, ah, selective citations and phony "balance."

Dean of Pundits, my eye.

Sixpack: Yep that's right, the pResident barely knows Scooter Libby, Karl Rove and Shooter Cheney!

And he's only vaguely heard of DeLay, Abramoff, Chalabi . . .

Two points for Kevin. I mean, we all hoped things would get this bad for Bush, we just didn't think they actually would.

Wow! How could Norquist be so wrong? He has a 100% error rate in his predictions!

Reminds me of Pete Domenici's prognostication in 1993, before Bill Clinton and a Democratic Congress passed tax increases that led to the first budget surpluses in 30 years - "This tax bill will cause the American economy to sputter to a halt and inflation to go through the roof!"

No Svengali's in this crowd, eh?

"Perhaps Mr. Drum could have provided better arguments to the agents of destruction. I hope so."

Powerpuff, your hope is unbased. In fact, on Iraq War Kevin played the liberal hawk and was even worse than Josh Marshall. Let's better hope he learned something from that experience.

Thanks for the post. Glad to see Kevin getting some recognition in the MSM, even if it's from Broder.

Gotta love the Gregg Easterbrook article, announcing that Bush will be taking global warming seriously in his second term. Ha! That's rich. And congrats to Kevin for his prescience. Make some more predictions, Kev.

Did Kevin mention panty-sniffing in his predictions?
Or does that fall under the "scandal" heading?

Does this mean more TV time for Mr. Drum?

And George W Bush will piss light sweet crude.

ROTFLOL

Excellent, Drum thought there'd be scandals.

He's a freakin' genius.

In fact, ONLY the professional pundits polled failed to see this a comin'.

So, let's here it for Drum. He found an acorn.

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Yes Kevin, I agree with the others. As one who has been reading you since Calpundit days, I conclude that you are a temperate and good hearted man, who deserves all the plaudits. You have certainly been right far more often than the alternative.

But what about the big one? I wish you would do an uncompromising self examination of why you supported the war. There were an awful lot of us close to your political persuasion who saw the debacle coming like it was a dream we’d already had. I want to know what delusion made war supporters out of smart and reasonable people like you. Make a contribution.

Now, if they could only get the big fish who stole two elections by fraud and criminality - Bush and Cheney.
Posted by: Advocate for God

"Republicans prevented more than 350,000 voters in Ohio from casting ballots or having their votes counted -- enough to have put John Kerry in the White House."
ROBERT F. KENNEDY JR.
http://www.rollingstone.com/news/story/10432334/was_the_2004_election_stolen

'Almost without exception they hurt John Kerry and benefited George Bush. After carefully examining the evidence, I've become convinced that the president's party mounted a massive, coordinated campaign to subvert the will of the people in 2004. Across the country, Republican election officials and party stalwarts employed a wide range of illegal and unethical tactics to fix the election.

According to Steven F. Freeman, a visiting scholar at the University of Pennsylvania who specializes in research methodology, the odds against all three of those shifts occurring in concert are one in 660,000. ''As much as we can say in sound science that something is impossible,'' he says, ''it is impossible that the discrepancies between predicted and actual vote count in the three critical battleground states of the 2004 election could have been due to chance or random error.''
>break

''The data presented to support the claim not only fails to substantiate it,'' observes Freeman, ''but actually contradicts it.''

What's more, Freeman found, the greatest disparities between exit polls and the official vote count came in Republican strongholds. In precincts where Bush received at least eighty percent of the vote, the exit polls were off by an average of ten percent. By contrast, in precincts where Kerry dominated by eighty percent or more, the exit polls were accurate to within three tenths of one percent -- a pattern that suggests Republican election officials stuffed the ballot box in Bush country.(39)

''When you look at the numbers, there is a tremendous amount of data that supports the supposition of election fraud,'' concludes Freeman. ''The discrepancies are higher in battleground states, higher where there were Republican governors, higher in states with greater proportions of African-American communities and higher in states where there were the most Election Day complaints. All these are strong indicators of fraud -- and yet this supposition has been utterly ignored by the press and, oddly, by the Democratic Party.'' '

Really, ya'll need to go read the whole piece.

Absolutely!

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