First!

I know we live in the internet age, but at least give them a week or two before declaring a quagmire.

Red State Mike: I know we live in the internet age, but at least give them a week or two before declaring a quagmire.

Tomorrow the sun will rise in the East.

Mike: It's not a quagmire. Israel could withdraw tomorrow if they wanted. The problem is that if they do that they've not only accomplished none of their goals, they've actually set them back. So they have to stay. But the longer they stay, the worse things get.

I suppose I should have titled the post "No Good Exit." Certainly they can exit anytime they want.

Unreported has been what effect this war is having upon Israel's economy.

1) Disruption from Hezbollah's missle attacks.
2) Drain caused by call up of reserves.
3) Decline in tourism.
4) Overall wear and tear on military equipment.
5) Other?

There are all sorts of potentially interesting wrinkles here. Eg. Most of Israel's oil comes from Russia, but Russia is seeking closer ties with Iran.

Still don't get, Kevin, do you.

Israel isn't relying on air power to win the battle against Hezbollah. They're relying on air power to cut Hezbollah off from most of their support and supplies. It's a classic air interdiction campaign, and it's designed to allow IDF ground forces to take Hezbollah on in a way that the Hezbies can't escape.

The Hezbies won't get re-supply and they won't be able to pull their fighters back to safety.

I said last night and I say again: Nazrallah is an idiot to slug it out with the IDF. He'll lose ten Hezbies for every IDF soldier, and he can't afford to lose his fighters. The whole point of a guerilla/insurgency movement is to live to fight another day, and the IDF is about to deny that to him.

As Red State Mike says: give it some time. At least, I hope we give it some time.

You also don't get the situation the Lebanese people are in now. The Cedar Revolution was betrayed. After the initial success of the Hariri-led group, Hezbollah threw itself into the issue. The Syrians and the Hezbies together launched an assassination campaign that worked: they killed a lot of second-tier people on the government side and intimidated the rest. The Syrians brought former Gen. Aoun over to their side, and with the Hezbies nudging the Shi'a (35-40% of the total population), Syria has re-established itself as the final arbiter. Siniora is powerless. Jumblatt is looking to see who'll win before he commits himself. The Lebanese army is thoroughly penetrated by the Hezbies and Shi'a. And the Marionites are stuck.

So if you want peace in Lebanon, Hezbollah has to be broken, and that in turn means Syria and Iran have to lose enough face that they can't re-establish their position. There's the strategy, and with that in mind, the Israeli intentions become not only clear, but pretty smart --

-- air power hammers Hezbollah and keeps them from Syrian re-supply

-- IDF loops either west or east (to the Litani or to the Be'kaa) and cuts off Hezbollah's fighters

-- then the IDF grinds them down in detail. That's already started in the border towns.

Will it work? I bet the IDF can do it, unless the West stops them. The Hezbies sure can't.

I used to ignore Think Progress relying on Political Animal and Talkingpointsmemo for my slightly left of center political blog reading. But now I find myself reading them even before I read you or Josh. No offense Kevin as you, Josh, and the Think Progress crowd are certainly in the top 3, but how would one rank gold, silver, and bronze?

But apparently they did. And now they don't know how to get out.

Thanks for your fortune telling about how the Israeli war on the terrorists Hezbollah is going. But couldn't you wait a while before you start making predictions about what's going to happen? It took four years before America was able to defeat Nazi Germany and you're willing to make predictions when four weeks hasn't even passed in Israel's War on Terrorism in Lebanon. Sounds like you're just rooting for failure.
I'm not surprised liberals like you would be saying stuff like this because you would rather embolden the enemy than kill the terrorists. I predict that things are going to look a lot better six months from now when Israel decisively defeats Hezbollah, but you couldn't even wait six weeks before spouting your predictions about how Israel is going to lose. It's people like you attacking Israel all the time who are making the war last longer than it could be and causing the needless deaths of Jews.

I spoke with a man who grew up in Lebanon today and whose family is still there, so he is very familiar with the local sentiment there.

He feels that if this would eliminate Hezbollah, it would be appreciated by most of the populace. They want Hezbollah gone, but as more civilians suffer, the tide of public opinion is shifting.

He considers Israel to be "2/3 right, 1/3 wrong" in this particular incursion. And I found it interesting that he also said that he feels that Israel is "1/3 right, 2/3 wrong" in regards to the Palestine issue.

It's worth noting that his family lives in the North and hasn't been greatly affected by the current bombing campaign.

It's pretty clear to me that neither side has gotten what it expected. A Hezbollah rep came out and said that they thought it'd be business as usual, with a commando raid and some arty in retaliation. On the Israeli side, they've encountered more resistance than they expected (I believe).

So now both sides regroup. Who can get inside the other's decision loop, and adjust their plans the quckest and best?

Well, I think that we're going to find out, Al, in the next year to six months—probably sooner—whether a decent outcome is possible there, and I think we're going to have to just let this play out.

Are you not aware of the story about Cheney meeting with Netanyahu in Aspen last month? Do you know Hezbollah's side of the story about the abduction of the Israeli soldiers?

I think that in order to understand Bush and Cheney, you have to stop listening to the rhetoric and look solely at the behavior. What has resulted is what was intended.

We all know that Bush turns the English language upside down, but if you listen to the rhetoric, it's very carefully crafted so that every member of his administration uses the same upside-down rhetoric. Are they ALL learning disordered? The words they choose, the language is so general that the listener reads into it a meaning that makes sense to a normal peace-loving human being, but in fact Bush's words can be taken other ways. And it is those other ways that wind up being what Bush meant.

Throughout the last six years, what you are calling mistakes and failures, I swear to you that the neocons and their sponsors don't see it that way. Things have actually worked out very well for Bush, Cheney and their benefactors.

What do you think hasn't worked out for Bush and Cheney?

Cursed Zionists! We will defeat you all! I am the Shadow of God, the Warrior of Islam, Defender of the umma! Cower in fear, my enemies!

--nazrallah@basementofIranianembassy.org

Learning some Lebanese History.

In 1954, Jews planned and eventually caused the first Lebanese Civil War. It took them much effort and time, but eventually their evil plan came to fruition.

How do we know this?

Because Ben Gurion and Moshe Sharett (early Israeli prime ministers) corresponded to each other about Ben Gurion's plan to destroy Lebanon and Moshe Sharett's son published the correspondence.

"The only thing that's necessary is to find a Lebanese officer, even just a major. We should either win his heart or buy him to make him agree to declare himself the savior of the Marionette population. Then the Israeli army will enter Lebanon, will occupy the necessary territory and will create a Christian regime which will ally itself with Israel ... and then everything will be all right." Moshe Dayan

You can read exactly what these evil Jews planned for Lebanon here.

For those too lazy to click, the following snippet from the correspondence sums it up.

"The creation of a Christian State (in Lebanon) is therefore a natural act; it has historical roots and it will find support in wide circles in the Christian world, both Catholic and Protestant. In normal times this would be almost impossible. First and foremost because of the lack of initiative and courage of the Christians. But at times of confusion, or revolution or CIVIL WAR, things take on another aspect, and even the weak declares himself to be a hero. Perhaps (there is never any certainty in politics) now is the time to bring about the creation of a Christian State in our neighborhood. Without our initiative and our vigorous aid this will not be done. It seems to me that this is the central duty - or at least one of the central duties, of our foreign policy. This means that time, energy and means ought to be invested in it and that we must act in all possible ways to bring about a radical change in Lebanon. Sasson ... and our other Arabists must be mobilized. If money is necessary, no amount of dollars should be spared, although the money may be spent in vain. We must concentrate all our efforts on this issue ........ This is a historical opportunity. Missing it will be unpardonable." Ben Gurion, February 27, 1954, personal correspondence to Moshe Sharett.

Learning some RECENT Lebanese History.

It is important to understand that

THE JEWS STARTED BOTH THE MASSACRES IN GAZA AND LEBANON.

Both of these were wars of choice, disguised to look like retaliation (the usual lying Jew way).

IN GAZA they fabricated a (clearly false) story in their newspapers about a "kidnapped" soldier.

IN LEBANON the Israeli Death Force (IDF) sent troops into a disputed piece of SYRIA (called Shebaa Farms, that has historically been claimed by Lebanon) KNOWING FULL WELL how Hizbollah would respond to an intrusion by Jew troops into this section of Arab land. Hizbollah responded exactly as they have in the past. No surprise here. The Jews used this as an excuse for their pre-planned Nazi attack on Lebanon.

The Shebaa Farms were owned by Lebanon citizens from the town of Shebaa (in Lebanon) until they were stolen by the thieving Jews in their 1967 surprise attack on the Arabs.

Since the Shebaa Farms were administered by Syria when the Jews stole the Golan Heights from Syria, the legalistic Jews decided they did not have to return the Shebaa Farms to Lebanon when they withdrew from Lebanon in 2000.

In short:

THE JEWS STARTED BOTH THE MASSACRES IN GAZA AND LEBANON.

Why did the Jews attack Lebanon.

Hoped For Outcome.

Quite a number of people predicted an Israeli attack on the local area (Gaza and Lebanon as they don't have the ability to hit back effectively), in order to pull Syria and Iran into the conflict, and then "deal with them" by dragging the US into the conflict (the Jew Bush would be in, in a second, but the US public and others might not be as stupid).

Probably, the only thing stopping the mad-man Bush, is the corporate types don't want to be paying $500 a barrel for oil after the Iranians take out the Saudi refineries, etc.

The 800 mile supply line between Baghdad and Kuwait that passes through the most Shi'a-dominated, Iran-infiltrated region of Iraq, is probably the least of the problems. Getting any ships in and out of the Gulf will be tough as coastal missile batteries will make resupply through the Gulf to Kuwait impossible. Even if Iran is occupied, freedom fighters will still launch missiles at ships in the Gulf, till they run out of missiles.

If Iran is attacked, how many pipelines that continue to pump, do you figure will be blown up? Perhaps it is better to ask,... how many pipelines in the middle east that continue to pump, do you figure will NOT be blown up?

Fallback Position.

The Jews hoped they could sucker the Europeans, etc, into dumping soldiers into the frying pan of Lebanon, so that precious Jews need not die taking on Hizbollah.

The fallback position has been about as unsuccessful as the main hope, a complete disaster,....

Thanks for your fortune telling about how the Israeli war on the terrorists Hezbollah is going. But couldn't you wait a while before you start making predictions about what's going to happen? It took four years before America was able to defeat Nazi Germany and you're willing to make predictions when four weeks hasn't even passed in Israel's War on Terrorism in Lebanon. Sounds like you're just rooting for failure.

Yeah, but previously the typical Israeli war has been measured in days (or a week or two), not months. Typically the IDF sweeps all before it. The IDF has gotten bogged down against guerillas, who have also managed to inflict a public humiliation or two on the IDF (e.g. taking out the Israeli gunboat). This has not gone to plan, but then it's unclear what the plan might have been.

We're not rooting for failure, we're rooting for coherence.

[Odious antisemitic rant deleted]
Posted by: pal on July 28, 2006 at 10:07 PM | PERMALINK

Hey, "pal," just go back to being called "watcher." Are you trying to fool someone?

Kevin, you recently said you'd delete the obvious antisemitic stuff that gets posted on these Israel threads. I think this guy counts in a big way.

Hey, "pal," just go back to being called "watcher."

You deleted all my posts as watcher, so I thought I would try a name change.

HI MY NAME IS PAL

I used to be called "watcher" but Kevin was mean and deleted my posts.

HE'LL NEVER FIND ME NOW

Maeven,

Where do oil prices and Iraq war costs figure in to the master plan?

I like the explanation that Digby's been offering, which is that both Israel and Hezbollah expected that there would be some sort of interlocution by the U.S. before things got out of hand, and there's really no face-saving position for either of them to back down to.

If they can get some external peacekeeping force, like NATO, inserted into the area, they will have largely accomplished their central aim.

Then NATO can fight with Hezbollah for the next ten years and get called a crusader army.

It's pretty clear to me that neither side has gotten what it expected. A Hezbollah rep came out and said that they thought it'd be business as usual, with a commando raid and some arty in retaliation. On the Israeli side, they've encountered more resistance than they expected (I believe).

So now both sides regroup. Who can get inside the other's decision loop, and adjust their plans the quckest and best?

This sounds right to me. But let's say Israel is able to crush Hezzbollah. What have they won?

They either stay as occupiers facing an inevitable insurgency, or they withdraw leaving chaos, or they withdraw and someone else moves into southern Lebanon. The last option seems like the only one worth fighting for from Israel's point of view, but it also seems farfetched.

Judging by Hezzbollah's ability to retaliate, the bad outcomes for Israel may look better than waitin for Hezzbollah to get even stronger.

Another point, I don't know if the Republicans really did miscalculate the war in Iraq.

You can say they created the present circumstance in Iraq intentionally as an alternative proxy war to the proxy war in the Levant, to take pressure off Israel, to totally screw with Iran, to totally screw things up generally by forcing too much complexity.

They keep insisting everything is going great in Iraq. What if, to them, it actually is?

Given the firing of even longer range and heavier payload missiles today, Israel has no choice now but to see the matter through to the end, which means the destruction of the military capability of Hezbollah. As Krauthammer said today on Special Report (yes, I know its on Fox), having undertaken such a major military operation, it's no time for half measures. Anything less that allows Hezbollah to claim victory will be a serious defeat for them and for US policy in the region. As Churchill famously said, "if you're going through Hell, keep going."

If they made it clear to Bush, that they are fully committed to this course of action, I'm pretty sure that he would provide as much political and diplomatic interference to give them as much time as they need to finish the job. Since no Arab state will attack Israel to save Hezbollah, they have no choice now but to finish what they started.

The U.S. is directing this entire operation. Israelis may be dropping the bombs, but right now all they are are hands to the U.S.' brain.

This assault on Hezbollah is a race against time for the U.S. and Israel.

Bush (Cheney) is betting it all on the reputation he has built up these six years, of playing fast and loose (with other people's lives and money), of "saying what he means, and meanin' what he says." Of being an impatient and ignorant ass.

For months now, Sy Hersh has been saying that Bush is going to drop nukes on Iran. It's leaked that we're in the operational phase of a war in Iran. The last six years, Bush has bullied everyone in the U.S. government into doing what he wants, or forcing them to quit if they refuse. Bush has Arlen Specter writing laws making Bush's crimes legal. Do you see any movement at all on Guantanomo after the USSC's ruling? The US Congress outlaws torture, and Bush signs the law with a statement saying "But I don't have to abide by it," and continues torturing people in secret prisons.

Bush has now taken his show on the road. Can he bully everybody else into doing what wants, or are they going to call his bluff? And if they call his bluff, and not join his multi-national force in Lebanon (watch how it would escalate then), not stand up to Iran with the U.S., will Bush actually unilaterally bomb Iran?

Bush is banking on being seen as crazy enough to do it.

So the international community is giving Bush and Israel some rope ("after all, it's just Hezbollah - they're just poor brown people with missiles that can only go 45 miles"), before the unrest grows in their own countries, and they are forced to say "Enough!"

Once enough Lebanese civilians are out of southern Lebanon (not all, but enough*), Israel will drop enough bombs on Lebanon (far beyond the buffer zone they are talking about and into the north) to kill every living thing that blinks. What's key to this is stealth, speed, to keep the world body politic off of Israel's and the U.S.' backs. Shock and awe.

None of this is going to destroy Hezbollah or end terrorism. It's going to kick it up a few notches, making the world profoundly more dangerous. The same strategy, the same people, is what actually unleashed fundamentalist Islam and made this situation. It's hard to believe that after all of the misery this administration and conservatives have caused at home and abroad, we are still allowing them to hold the reins of power. This is insane!

I can't imagine NATO is eager to be the peace-enforcing unit in southern Lebanon.

First of all, most of the Euro 'rapid-reaction' forces are in Afghanistan, as is a big chunk of their overseas logistics tail. While the major EU countries have largish standing armies, they're not equipped or supplied to leave their homelands to fight (they weren't meant to). So getting a force into Lebanon won't be the easiest, particularly if the US declines to have troops on the ground. There will be more than one EU country volunteering to supply the HQ unit in Cyprus.

Second, count on a NATO force being shot at by the Hezbies. The Hezbies have had their way with UNIFIL, and they'll expect the same with NATO. The NATO forces showed some starch in Bosnia and Kosovo after Pres. Clinton intervened, and they'll need that and more in Lebanon.

Third, a NATO force has to be there a generation -- at least.

And finally, it all pre-supposes that the Lebanese government can establish itself as sovereign, that it can boot the Syrians, and that it can become unified enough to take over in the south. I see no evidence of that today, but who knows?

Now I remember why it's so fraught to criticize Israel -- because it emboldens assholes to pull shit like this:

http://tinyurl.com/pa8w2

This is the kind of thing that turns me into Marge from Fargo -- I just don't get it.

As to Kevin's question about why the IDF seems less than spectactular in it counter insurgency efforts, perhaps one can take a lesson from US military history.

In 'Eisenhower's Leiutenants' Russell G. Weigley says that the US military effort in WWII was shaped by the twin traditions of the Civil War, and the various Indian wars.

To put it simply, the tradition of the Civil War was to muster overwhelming combat power out of the available resources, and the tradition of the Indian wars was to sacrifice total combat power for mobility that would allow the maxium amount of US troops to chase down and fight the relatively few Indians.

In WWII, Weigley argues, the USA fell between two stools, pursuing a strategy of frontal combat with a force that was not optimized for that strategy. Fortunately, it all worked out OK for the USA.

As a coralary, it would not be difficult to presume that the IDF is, in many ways, optimized to fight the wars of old...airpower and armor that could win the Six Day War in four or five days, or the Yom Kippur/Ramadan war in a week, only to find themselves in an entirely different war.

"And finally, it all pre-supposes that the Lebanese government can establish itself as sovereign, that it can boot the Syrians, and that it can become unified enough to take over in the south."

What is more likely, is that Hizbollah gains effective control of the North.

Has anyone heard from watcher recently?

I suppose I should have titled the post "No Good Exit." Certainly they can exit anytime they want.

Isn't war in general and in the middle east in particular a series of least bad choices? And since when have wars been predictable?

How much of an advantage is it to know they have 13,000 missles in the region? How much of an advantage is it to know in the not too distant future those missles will have a greater range
and be far more lethal?

Isn't it far better to find out now and be able to do something about it rather than find out in 2010 Hezbollah can rain more powerful missles over all of Israel?

Isn't it far better for the Europeans to find out now terror organiztions have access to a huge amount of missles and in the very near future Iran and Syria will have serious threats to Berlin and Paris?

Isn't it good for the French and Germans to have a debate over their missle defenses and defenses in general? Consider the fact Iran has already made veiled threats.

My sense is most of the world considers Israeli intelligence among the best. Yet they have been caught by surprise at a terrorist group having 13,000 missles. What have all of the other intelligence agencies missed? What don't we know about the capabilities of terrorists? Doesn't this mean whatever threat we recognized in the GWOT is probably much worse?

I'm not so sure your unrelenting pessimism is warranted. We've learned a great deal we didn't know about our enemy just 3 weeks ago. Allow me to predict the Europeans will get more serious about defense spending and intelligence gathering. Allow me to also predict Israel will demand and get a real security zone and reduced influence by Hezbollah in lebanon. Because this won't end otherwise.

RED STATE MIKE: at least give them a week or two before declaring a quagmire.

STEVE WHITE: give it some time. At least, I hope we give it some time.

AL: But couldn't you wait a while

Is give war a chance.

What is more likely, is that Hizbollah gains effective control of the North.

The Druze and Christians will not allow for Hizbollah to control the North. Israel will not settle for a more powerful Hezbollah. No country will put troops in harms way. Hezbollah came across the border killed and kidnapped Isreli's. That cannot be repeated. Hezbollah has 13,000 missles. They must be disarmed. if they ar allowed to stay and will rearm with far more powerful missles. Israel will not agree to suicide. They have no choice but to defeat hezbollah.

you know, it's almost like all the "of course the IDF will pull off a brilliant victory, they must" folks here have forgotten that israel occupied lebanon for close to 20 years and got out because it wasn't doing them any good.

frankly, there is no israeli strategy at work here: they aren't going to destroy hezbollah completely and they look like they're going to get stuck in southern lebanon for quite a while. this advances their interests compared to the status quo one minute before the tank attack exactly...how?

"The Druze and Christians will not allow for Hizbollah to control the North."

The Christians like Hizbollah much more than the Jews. They need to be protected from the Jews, not Hizbollah.

Hizbollah is protecting them from the Jews and they know it.

Lebanon has outsourced its' security to Hezbollah. In an important way Beirut is the ideal Republican government. Is it right that we should allow this? Is this what we want for our future?

Is the Republican interest here to let it fester, to justify their ideal of the incapacity of government?

If, in festering, it destroys Israel, that really would be just fine with them. Tel Aviv is a strong government. Very bad.

If it were gone some other, non-governmental arrangement could replace it. Perhaps that is really why we give so much money to the Palestinians.

stephen kriz,

That wasn't watcher, that was a plot from the New World Order to implicate watcher.

frankly, there is no israeli strategy at work here: they aren't going to destroy hezbollah completely and they look like they're going to get stuck in southern lebanon for quite a while. this advances their interests compared to the status quo one minute before the tank attack exactly...how?

Consider the following paper:

Is there a relationship between the bombing of Lebanon and the inauguration of the World's largest strategic pipeline, which will channel more a million barrels of oil a day to Western markets?

Virtually unnoticed, the inauguration of the Ceyhan-Tblisi-Baku (BTC) oil pipeline, which links the Caspian sea to the Eastern Mediterranean, took place on the 13th of July, at the very outset of the Israeli sponsored bombings of Lebanon.

One day before the Israeli air strikes, the main partners and shareholders of the BTC pipeline project, including several heads of State and oil company executives were in attendance at the port of Ceyhan. They were then rushed off for an inauguration reception in Istanbul, hosted by Turkey's President Ahmet Necdet Sezer in the plush surroundings of the Çýraðan Palace.

Also in attendance was British Petroleum's (BP) CEO, Lord Browne together with senior government officials from Britain, the US and Israel. BP leads the BTC pipeline consortium. Other major Western shareholders include Chevron, Conoco-Phillips, France's Total and Italy's ENI. (see Annex)

Israel's Minister of Energy and Infrastructure Binyamin Ben-Eliezer was present at the venue together with a delegation of top Israeli oil officials.

The BTC pipeline totally bypasses the territory of the Russian Federation. It transits through the former Soviet republics of Azerbaijan and Georgia, both of which have become US "protectorates", firmly integrated into a military alliance with the US and NATO. Moreover, both Azerbaijan and Georgia have longstanding military cooperation agreements with Israel. In 2005, Georgian companies received some $24 million in military contracts funded out of U.S. military assistance to Israel under the so-called "Foreign Military Financing (FMF) program".

http://www.jewishvirtuallibrary.org/jsource/states/GA.html

Israel has a stake in the Azeri oil fields, from which it imports some twenty percent of its oil. The opening of the pipeline will substantially enhance Israeli oil imports from the Caspian sea basin.

But there is another dimension which directly relates to the war on Lebanon. Whereas Russia has been weakened, Israel is slated to play a major strategic role in "protecting" the Eastern Mediterranean transport and pipeline corridors out of Ceyhan.

Militarization of the Eastern Mediterranean

The bombing of Lebanon is part of a carefully planned and coordinated military road map. The extension of the war into Syria and Iran has already been contemplated by US and Israeli military planners. This broader military agenda is intimately related to strategic oil and oil pipelines. It is supported by the Western oil giants which control the pipeline corridors. In the context of the war on Lebanon, it seeks Israeli territorial control over the East Mediterranean coastline.

In this context, the BTC pipeline dominated by British Petroleum, has dramatically changed the geopolitics of the Eastern Mediterranean, which is now linked , through an energy corridor, to the Caspian sea basin:

"[The BTC pipeline] considerably changes the status of the region's countries and cements a new pro-West alliance. Having taken the pipeline to the Mediterranean, Washington has practically set up a new bloc with Azerbaijan, Georgia, Turkey and Israel, " (Komerzant, Moscow, 14 July 2006)

Israel is now part of the Anglo-American military axis, which serves the interests of the Western oil giants in the Middle East and Central Asia.

While the official reports state that the BTC pipeline will "channel oil to Western markets", what is rarely acknowledged is that part of the oil from the Caspian sea would be directly channeled towards Israel. In this regard, an underwater Israeli-Turkish pipeline project has been envisaged which would link Ceyhan to the Israeli port of Ashkelon and from there through Israel's main pipeline system, to the Red Sea.

The objective of Israel is not only to acquire Caspian sea oil for its own consumption needs but also to play a key role in re-exporting Caspian sea oil back to the Asian markets through the Red Sea port of Eilat. The strategic implications of this re-routing of Caspian sea oil are farreaching.

In April 2006, Israel and Turkey announced plans for four underwater pipelines, which would bypass Syrian and Lebanese territory.

"Turkey and Israel are negotiating the construction of a multi-million-dollar energy and water project that will transport water, electricity, natural gas and oil by pipelines to Israel, with the oil to be sent onward from Israel to the Far East,

The new Turkish-Israeli proposal under discussion would see the transfer of water, electricity, natural gas and oil to Israel via four underwater pipelines.

http://www.jpost.com/servlet/Satellite?cid=1145961328841&pagename=JPost%2FJPArticle%2FShowFull

“Baku oil can be transported to Ashkelon via this new pipeline and to India and the Far East.[via the Red sea]"

"Ceyhan and the Mediterranean port of Ashkelon are situated only 400 km apart. Oil can be transported to the city in tankers or via specially constructed under-water pipeline. From Ashkelon the oil can be pumped through already existing pipeline to the port of Eilat at the Red Sea; and from there it can be transported to India and other Asian countries in tankers. (REGNUM )

Water for Israel

Also involved in this project is a pipeline to bring water to Israel, pumping water from upstream resources of the Tigris and Euphrates river system in Anatolia. This has been a long-run strategic objective of Israel to the detriment of Syria and Iraq. Israel's agenda with regard to water is supported by the military cooperation agreement between Tel Aviv and Ankara.

The Re-routing of Central Asian Oil

Diverting Central Asian oil and gas to the Eastern Mediterranean (under Israeli military protection), for re-export to Asia, serves to undermine the inter-Asian energy market, which is based on the development of direct pipeline corridors linking Central Asia and Russia to South Asia, China and the Far East.

Ultimately, this design is intended to weaken Russia's role in Central Asia and cut off China from Central Asian oil resources. It is also intended to isolate Iran.

Meanwhile, Israel has emerged as a new powerful player in the global energy market.

War and Oil Pipelines

Prior to the bombing of Lebanon, Israel and Turkey had announced the underwater pipeline routes, which bypassed Syria and Lebanon. These underwater pipeline routes did not overtly encroach on the territorial sovereignty of Lebanon and Syria.

On the other hand, the development of alternative land based corridors (for oil and water) through Lebanon and Syria would require Israeli-Turkish territorial control over the Eastern Mediterranean coastline through Lebanon and Syria.

The implementation of this project requires the militarisation of the East Mediterranean coastline, sea ways and land routes, extending from the port of Ceyhan across Syria and Lebanon to the Lebanese-Israeli border.

Is this not one of the hidden objectives of the war on Lebanon? Open up a space which enables Israel to control a vast territory extending from the Lebanese border through Syria to Turkey.

"The Long War"

Israeli Prime minister Ehud Olmert has stated that the Israeli offensive against Lebanon would "last a very long time". Meanwhile, the US has speeded up weapons shipments to Israel.

There are strategic objectives underlying the "Long War" which are tied to oil and oil pipelines.

The air campaign against Lebanon is inextricably related to US-Israeli strategic objectives in the broader Middle East including Syria and Iran. In recent developments, Secretary of State Condoleeza Rice stated that the main purpose of her mission to the Middle East was not to push for a ceasefire in Lebanon, but rather to isolate Syria and Iran. (Daily Telegraph, 22 July 2006)

At this particular juncture, the replenishing of Israeli stockpiles of US produced WMDs points to an escalation of the war both within and beyond the borders of Lebanon.

The Israeli Nazi attack on Lebanon, like the US Nazi attack on Iraq before it, was just the result of Jew IDIOTS "AT WORK."

No amount of spin can put a shine on these turds.

And the madness spreads. Today a Jewish community center in Seattle was shot up by a man shouting that he was an American Muslim, angry about Israeli agression in Lebanon. Six wounded, one dead.

Okay, the idiots trolls and no-minds are out in full force, and I am tired after a hundred mile drive. I'm going to bed so i'll be well rested when pal and watcher come to get me for repatriation to a work camp.

The Israeli Nazi attack on Lebanon, like the US Nazi attack on Iraq before it, was just the result of Jew IDIOTS "AT WORK."

No amount of spin can put a shine on these turds.

Oy vey!

To Al, who said, "It took four years before America was able to defeat Nazi Germany."

The Soviets had nothing to do with defeating Germany; everybody knows that. LOFL

90% of the German military was getting ground up in the East, and the Americans sneaked in the back door. Ever heard of Stalingrad? Kursk? The Siege of Leningrad? General Patton's 4th Army had a free trip all the way to Berlin within weeks of the Normandy landings.

Why? Because the Germans were fighting for their lives in the Ukraine and Belarus.

The Americans did a mop-up job on the wide-open western front, facing the least important units in the Wehrmacht.

The REAL war was in the East. Had the Germans not been putting all their marbles on that front, the Soviets would have been in Berlin by the fall of 1944, if not sooner. Germany's decision to invade Russia in the summer of 1941 was the single biggest error of the war.

The Soviets lost at least 8,000,000 soldiers in the war - all killed by Germans. Some put the figure at 13,000,000. The Americans lost all of 295,000 in the war - MANY IN THE PACIFIC. All told the Germans lost 3,250,000 - 90% or more killed by the Soviets.

By all accounts of historians, the war in the West was insignificant compared to the war in the East.

The Soviets won their way into Berlin by the front door, with humongously massive artillery bombardments continuing to the very last days of the war. The Americans came into Berlin from the west, and had a relatively easy time of it. They were able to traipse right into important buildings, looting and plundering ("souvenir hunting"), while the German defense was trying to stave off the Soviets.

The Americans defeated the Germans? As secondary adjuncts, yes. The Soviets would have beaten them all by themselves. If the might of the Germans had been able to focus on the Western front, the Americans and English would likely have been driven back into the sea in another Dunkirk.

As bad as it was in the West - and the Americans DO deserve credit for winning what was there to be won - the devastation of the East was what won the war. Had the Americans participated in THAT theater of the war, our dead would have been ten times greater, and then we could lay claim to having "defeated the Germans".

How can Israel "get out" of Lebanon? If Hezbollah is a force in southern Lebanon and if they are armed with thousands of long-range missiles that they intend to use against Israel, then Israel isn't really "out".

Is giving Hezbollah a "bloody nose" enough to deter their next attack against Israel? I doubt it, not with Iran and Syria arming Hezbollah and egging them on. And, each new Arab attack uses ever more potent weapons. No matter how many wars Israel wins, they're still in danger, but if they lose one war, they'll be finished.

My guess is that Israel will be destroyed in my lifetime.

The lessons are so simple and obvious. After thousands of years of tit-for-tat, revenge and retribution, why are they so dense, so immovable?

Hitler thought he could demoralize the Brits with his bombs. He only strengthened their resolve.

The allies thought they could demoralize the Germans by obliterating their cities. The bombing only strengthened their resolve.

The Americans thought they could “shock and awe” the Sunnis into submission. The bombing only strengthened their resolve.

It’s so obvious even a fence post should be able to understand. How foolish to think we can make a people see our side of the argument by killing a bunch of them. Do we really expect the surviving relatives to rethink their behavior? All they think about is getting revenge.

Don’t bring up Hiroshima and Nagasaki in rebuttal, all you fence posts. As in WWII, if you start a war, you must go all the way and totally destroy the enemy, then spend bazillions to rebuild. Anything short of that and they will regroup and come after you again.

Deterrence is a word the Israelis throw around a lot. Hezbollah must understand it will be hit hard if it displeases them! What slow learners these Israelis are. I think it has something to do with their clinging to that ancient book as if it had the anwers to problems in these times. I think it has something to do with Israel’s racist world view. We, the superior ones, God’s chosen people, could never be demoralized by a violent attack, but they of inferior moral fiber can be.

Bush and the Israelis: two peas in a pod. Round and round the wheel of killing goes. Where it stops, nobody knows.

Am I the only one (rhetorical question –don’t answer) to remember when the editorial William Safire wrote the last time Israel invaded Lebanon? He actually wrote a column to the effect that after years of liberal bleeding hearts screwing around, Sharon had solved the whole PLO issue in just a few days. Just goes to show conservatives like simple solutions even if they don’t work. “Thoughtful conservative” is the ultimate oxymoron.

Where do oil prices and Iraq war costs figure in to the master plan?

Sorry for the delay in getting back here - Between getting a bite to eat and tending to my own website (for some reason, and with no plugging, this is getting huge numbers of hits from all over the world, and it's not all that interesting; I should know, I wrote it).

Now, you ask where oil prices and war costs figure in to the master plan?

The master plan is for the rich and powerful to remain rich and powerful. Everyone else can go pick grapes. Listen to the rhetoric: "Personal responsibility" and "Don't expect government to help you." Bush's FEMA was the prototype for the future of government services in the U.S. Bush's State Dept. repeated the meme last week, when it took its' sweet time evacuating Americans from Lebanon. They're not pretending either, about improving the respond time and the services - they will be doing the least possible, as slowly as possible, until we get used to not expecting those services for our tax dollar. Then they will just close the doors entirely. That's what Susan Collins and Joe Lieberman just got through doing with FEMA. We're never going to have a federal emergency response program up and operating as it had been before Bush.

One thing is certain: You can't have a democracy without a middle class. Conservatives have been working their greedy fat fingers to the bone for these last thirty years to shift the wealth from the those with the least to those with the most. Is that their actual intention, to have an aristocracy with serfs? I don't think most of them have thought it through. Deep Throat's line from "All the President's Men" comes to mind, "Forget the myths the media's created about the White House. The truth is, these are not very bright guys, and things got out of hand." Nothing's changed - it's the same people. They haven't gotten any smarter, or honest, or ethical in thirty years. They've become more of what they were - ruthless, power-hungry, and deeply flawed. These are not happy people. In spite of what media celebrities who vouch for them say ( "brilliant people," "who don't lie," "good intentions"), these are not great intellects.

Oil prices are going to go up, energy companies will price gouge whether the price of oil goes down to them or not (or if Congress lets them drill domestically). It will bring the economy to a grinding halt. The days of cheap gas are over, but they should have been over long ago. We should have been developing alternative energy supplies 25 years ago. And smart growth, instead of suburban sprawl. The cost of the damage that the carbon is doing to the environment is a subject we haven't gotten into at all in this country. And just when we begin to accept the truth of global warming and our contribution to it, the policies of the last three administrations (Bush 41, Clinton and Bush 43) in aiding China's fast track growth kick in to speed up climate change even more.

A relative few (Dick Cheney, the Bushes and all of their friends) will be getting even more obscenely rich, while the rest of the nation (and the world) teeter on the edge financially. Bush has already said that it's up to the "next President" to decide if the U.S. will leave Iraq, so that means we're going to be borrowing for all of these military adventures. But that can only continue for so long. Record trade deficits, weak dollar, inflation, dropping home prices,

Bush, Cheney, Republicans, Grover Norquist, are getting their fondest dreams fulfilled: The end of government. You can't have government if you can't pay for it, and that bill is coming due. The list of unfunded mandates is getting huge.

If Democrats fail to take back Congress in November, Bush is certainly going to make another run at social security ("mandate," "spend mah political capital," etc.), and the raid will coincide with some dire emergency to frighten people into thinking they must agree - that is Karl Rove's style. He's like a crotch-sniffing dog that won't give up.

If you think these incumbent DLC Democrats are spineless now, just wait until after another election cycle where they've failed to take control. They'll be licking Bush's hand, thankful to Rove for letting them remain in office.

Hard times are coming. They can't NOT be coming. Unless.

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Israelis using the bush playbook on how to create FUBAR...what could be a stupider thing to do.

'Steve' posted:

"The Hezbies won't get re-supply"

I wouldn't bet the farm on that. Not to mention that even if they continue firing rockets at their current daily rate, they could go on for MONTHS without any resupply.

.

"Nazrallah is an idiot to slug it out with the IDF. He'll lose ten Hezbies for every IDF soldier"

It's just not happening.
.

'leo' posted:

"I spoke with a man who grew up in Lebanon today and whose family is still there, so he is very familiar with the local sentiment there. He feels that if this would eliminate Hezbollah, it would be appreciated by most of the populace. They want Hezbollah gone, but as more civilians suffer, the tide of public opinion is shifting."

Exactly why one should not rely upon allegorical evidence. The reality is JUST THE OPPOSITE.
.

The fact that George Bush, for example, miscalculated the war in Iraq is understandable: he had no relevant experience to guide him.....this is total bullshit! cleve

Kevin, Here is an excellent (and short) treatise on the war in Lebanon and it's antecedents.

Read it, you might learn something.

The Christians like Hizbollah much more than the Jews. They need to be protected from the Jews, not Hizbollah.

Hizbollah is protecting them from the Jews and they know it.

That's bizarre. Radical Islam is the enemy of Jews and Christians everywhere. The Christians don't like Hezbollah even a little bit and they don't like Syria or Iran even a little bit. They'd be happy if Israel carpert bombed the South and killed every supporter of Hezbollah.

Unreported has been what effect this war is having upon Israel's economy.

doesn't matter the US taxpayer will cover any losses

James of DC wrote: How foolish to think we can make a people see our side of the argument by killing a bunch of them. Do we really expect the surviving relatives to rethink their behavior? All they think about is getting revenge.

Don’t bring up Hiroshima and Nagasaki in rebuttal, all you fence posts. As in WWII, if you start a war, you must go all the way and totally destroy the enemy, then spend bazillions to rebuild. Anything short of that and they will regroup and come after you again.

Israel didn't start this war with Hezbollah, which makes James's point even stronger. Hezbollah is being supported by Syria and Iran. Following James's logic, in order for Israel to survive and have peace, they must totally destroy Hezbollah, Syria and Iran. Israel probably has enough nukes to do just that.

Of course, this is unthinkable. However, at the very least, the world ought to encourage Israel to destroy Hezbollah. That would also allow Lebanon's elected goverment to actually control its own country. Instead other countries are pushing for a cease fire, which means protecting Hebollah. What a short-sighted policy!

According to comment in the Guardian by Paddy Ashdown:

Hizbullah may have started this with an outrageous breach of international law and a sustained and flagrant contravention of a UN security council resolution. But it is not Hizbullah's position that is weakening now. It is Israel's. Its stated war aim was to destroy Hizbullah. It is not clear why, having failed to do this by occupying Lebanon, it thought it could achieve it by bombing. But whatever its thinking, it has been unable to deliver the knockout blow that was its primary military aim.

From now on, Hizbullah does not have to win. It merely has to survive as a potent force - and it appears to be doing just that. Meanwhile the political damage done to Israel through miscalculation, overreaction and targeting errors is incalculable. But there is no comfort to be taken in the thought that Israel may be reaping the whirlwind it has helped to sow. A defeat for Israel and a victory for Hizbullah would have terrifying consequences for the Middle East, which would probably begin with regime change on a wide scale (but not the kind Washington looks for) and could end with the very battle for survival that Israel has always claimed that its use of military force was designed to avoid.

Paddy is hyper-ventaliating. Hezbollah will not win here and it has no repercussions outside lebanon. If anything the neighbors of Iran and Syria are far moreaare of the dramatic threat posed by Hezbollah. They have 13,000 missles controled from Damascus and Tehran. It doesn't take an imagination to see a near future where those missles can reach Tel Aviv as well as Cairo and the other Middle Eastern Capitals.

The Jews have nukes they can and will use. Iran and Syria can only push so far before they're obvilerated. Iran has no such fears from the rest. They need to fear Iran.

This is of course equally bad news for Western Europe. The future got significantly bleaker for them. There are religious freaks running states in the middle east with very bad tempers, a lot of cash and very long memories. They haven't forgotten the defeats Islam has suffered in Europe. They are not going to forget.

Paddy can't see the forest for the trees. Israel hasn't lost anything. They are in the same position they've always been in. Instead of Eqypt, Jordan and Syria tryng to kill them it's Iran and Syria. It's the rest of the Middle East and Europe that has lost here. Their jeopardy has increased exponentially and they're woefully unprepared.

Hezbollah has kidnapped 2 soldiers and killed around 40 jews. In the scheme of things this has not been especially costly regarding casualities. The infatada was dramatically worse. And what else? The UN and EU is upset with them? Wow! That's new!

Thinker's quotes shows the Guardian has their facts right, but not their logic.

...But whatever [Israel's] thinking, it has been unable to deliver the knockout blow that was its primary military aim... Meanwhile the political damage done to Israel through miscalculation, overreaction and targeting errors is incalculable.

Since Israel has not delivered the knockout blow, one concludes that they didn't overreact -- they underreacted.

From polipundit

Lets face It, It Is A World Jihad

Did “perky” Katie cover this quote from Al-Qaida’s deputy leader, Ayman al-Zawahiri last night?

“It is a jihad for the sake of Allah and will last until [our] religion prevails … from Spain to Iraq.”

"Hard times are coming. They can't NOT be coming."

"It looked as if a night of dark intent
Was coming, and not only a night, an age.
Someone had better be prepared for rage.
There would be more than ocean-water broken
Before God's last 'Put out the Light' was spoken."

Kevin Drum: Israel could withdraw tomorrow if they wanted.

Give it another week... Israel has reached the point of diminishing returns unless they ratchet it up on the ground. However, that seems unlikely, as they appear to be avoiding action that threatens serious casualties on their side, that looks like a 1982 reprise, or that might trigger a confrontation with Syria. (Note the noises made in Syria's direction after mobilizing the 3 reserve divisions last week.)

That doesn't mean Israel withdraws completely, at least until a peacekeeping force is in place. More likely: tactical withdrawals from the areas of heaviest fighting and then flatten those areas within a few kilometers of the border (e.g., Bint Jbail, and watch for "we had to destroy it to save it") although one minister talked of going as far as the Awali river (45-50km); declare that zone no-go; then nominally turn it over to the diplomats.

In response to rdw and exliberal, they are thinking in conventional terms and think that - European/WWII/Cold War-style - the Hezbollah-type guerrillas intend to overwhelm Israel in some mechanized, sudden, violent sense.

The Arabs and Muslims - while both anti-Israel and increasingly anti-Jewish as well - are not anti-semites in the traditional European sense. They have their own motives and their own dynamic.

Time is on Hexbullah's side. They intend to exploit this assett.

They do not intend to destroy Israel, they intend to deplete it. They do not intend a knockout blow. This is an Oriental thing, not a European thing. It will be the death of a thousand slices.

ex-liberal: Since Israel has not delivered the knockout blow, one concludes that they didn't overreact -- they underreacted.

Given that, notwithstanding international pressure, Israel has and continues to exercise a free hand both in the air and on the ground (especially in the South), I'm sure the Olmert, Peretz, the IDF, and most of the Israeli public eagerly awaits the benefit of your strategic acumen and your ideas for how to deliver that "knockout blow".

has407, it was the Guardian who said Israel had been unable to deliver the knockout blow. I was just quoting them.

In my opinion, Israel shouldn't stop until they have degraded Hezbollah as much as is militarily possible. That may not be allowed by the world community. The world seems to have special rules for Israel. There's no limit on attacks against Israel, but Israel is given only a limited right to counterattack.

ex-liberal: In my opinion, Israel shouldn't stop until they have degraded Hezbollah as much as is militarily possible. That may not be allowed by the world community.

The "world community", as has been shown over the last 2 weeks, is not stopping Israel from doing pretty much anything it damn well pleases. The only thing stopping Israel is their own capabilities and their willingness to spend their own blood and treasure.

You think the IDF doesn't understand what's at stake? You think you have a better read on the situation than they do? You think they're not doing everything they possibly can to "have degraded Hezbollah as much as is militarily possible"? Please. Play armchair general with someone else's blood.

The world seems to have special rules for Israel. There's no limit on attacks against Israel, but Israel is given only a limited right to counterattack.

Give me a break, ex-liberal. I mean, seriously. There's no limit on attacks against Israel? Who in the international community thinks that it was *right* for Hizballah to attack Israel, and who is against making it less likely in future that Hizballah can do this? No one not named Syria or Iran.

But on the other hand, some of us are keeping things in context. Hizballah's initial raid was a purely military operation, and a relatively trivial one. Ethopia and Eritrea do that sort of thing to each other all the time. If it wasn't Israel, no one would care in the first place. Secondly, Hizballah's fired about 1000 rockets and killed about 40 people. That's a tragedy, but on a strategic level it's just a pain in the ass.

We restrain Israel because Israel has the ability to cause vastly greater devastation than Hizballah - and has already done so.

If Hizballah had committed a massive-casualty civilian attack on Israel, a significantly more aggressive response would have been tolerated. Peace is maintained by discouraging and punishing escalation, from whatever source!

I suspect Israelis believe that they can't be loved any less by their neighbours than they already are. This means they can be as nasty as they choose and at best they'll have fewer enemies and at worst they'll have the same number as before.

Glasnost--

Not just Eritrea and Ethiopia.
Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan, N.Korea and S. Korea, India and Pakistan, Vietnam and Cambodia, Armenia and Azerbaijan, the list goes on and on.

But that's not even the best analogy, since Hezbollah is not even a State. One could even argue that since some Mexican drug gangs have strong ties with regional governments or political parties in Mexico and since those drug gangs sometime kill US uniformed police without said Mexican regional governments or parties crushing the cartels, that we would be justified in bombing Mexico City when a gangster in East LA takes out an LAPD officer.

Perhaps that's a bit of an extreme example, but the basic point about escalation remains valid. And its not as though this Hezbollah raid was really that unprecedented. Things such as that had happened many times in the past decades. Why Israel bit at the bait this time is anyone's guess. Maybe the answer is in Olmert's personality or a sense of impending doom following the Iraq debacle. Or maybe the absence of the Syrian Army meant that Israel knew the strategic field was different now. Who knows? All I know is that people have long overestimated the "intelligence" and "cunning" of the Israeli regime. Maybe Olmert really is just as dumb as Bush. Why not?

I don't know Kevin, we can only guess at why Israel is behaving this way.

My first guess would be that's it's the old "terrified at looking weak" syndrome, as others have speculated.

The new Israeli head of state bought into reprisals, then got carried away with reprisal logic and ended up going much farther than he should have.

"... One could even argue that since some Mexican drug gangs have strong ties with regional governments or political parties in Mexico and since those drug gangs sometime kill US uniformed police without said Mexican regional governments or parties crushing the cartels, that we would be justified in bombing Mexico City when a gangster in East LA takes out an LAPD officer..."

I gave been wondering why the RWingers haven't jumped on this idea. The drug cartel does far more damage to America than...wait, I get it. The drug gangs are still Christians. Better than those evil Moooselem Jihadists.

"count on a NATO force being shot at by the Hezbies." yeah, right, just like UNFIL gets shot at killed by the Hezbies. Not.

ex-liberal is wrong on many points, but he is right on one thing: we shall see Israel end as a Jewish state in our lifetime.
The real reason the "Jewish" state has to win militarily at all costs is their internal Arab population (both in the occupied territories and in Israel proper). They can keep all the Israeli Arabs and Palestinians they rule in a subservient position only as long as they can keep them down with a gun, and they can do that only as long as they can keep the Arabs outside their borders down with a gun. Israel's real concern with "deterrance" is internal -- they cannot use their military both to police the west Bank and Gaza as well as to fight the quagmire in Lebanon. A nation cannot survive both slave and free, and that's really what's going to crater Israel.

Personally I don't see why they are so opposed to "committing suicide" as a Jewish state. White South Africa "committed suicide" and the place is doing better than ever, whites included. If the U.S. and the Boer state didn't have to stay legally white, why does the Jewish state have to stay legally Jewish?

rdw said: "The Jews have nukes they can and will use."

Hey RealDumbWanker,... if the Jews use their nukes then they are all dead.

Every single last Jew in the middle east will die.

Try it and see. Go on, see if every Arab/Persian/Muslim country turns on you nuts.

Nukes are the Samson option for freaks like you, because if you use them, everyone will know that you have to go, and no effort will be spared in order to kill you all.

Go on, try it and see.

It's like I said yesterday: even a casual perusal of Israeli media suggests that Israeli opinion makers (and perhaps those in power) ascribe almost magical powers to the Lebanese government, a sense that Siniora really could have implemented 1559 without doing catastrophic harm to the fragile peace between his country's sectarian factions if he only he Tried Harder.

I fear this whole campaign is premised on the genuinely held belief that if only Israel punishes Lebanon hard enough its government will finally implement 1559, or else that the Lebanese people will finally demand that their government implement 1559. But that isn't what is happening, or is likely to happen.

More than 87% of Lebanese support Hezbollah over Israel, but there are darker indicators, Christian villages in the north refusing Shiite refugees, hints of a gathering anarchy, disputes over gas and the last bottled water in the store taking on a sectarian character.

Lebanon's democracy is a fragile and maybe impossible thing, and needed time and peace and prosperity to nurture a post-sectarian politics, but there was little appetite for moving beyond the politics of ethnicity and religion in the calm that followed the civil war, and you have to suspect that appetite will weaken as conditions worsen.

Everyone agrees that there is no military solution to the conflict between Israel and Hezbollah, which has to mean that all this violence is little more than senseless.