Editore"s Note
Tilting at Windmills

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August 17, 2006
By: Kevin Drum

THE INCREDIBLE SHRINKING BOMB PLOT....The Associated Press provides the latest news on the airline bombing plot:

Home Secretary John Reid, Britain's chief law-and-order official, acknowledged that some of the suspects would likely not be charged with major criminal offenses, but said there was mounting evidence of a "substantial nature" to back the allegations.

"Mounting" evidence? Shouldn't we already have lots of evidence after over a year of intensive surveillance? WTF is going on here? And then there's this:

Two top Pakistani intelligence agents said Wednesday that the would-be bombers wanted to carry out an al-Qaida-style attack to mark the fifth anniversary of the Sept. 11 strikes, but were too "inexperienced" to carry out the plot.

The two senior agents, who spoke on condition of anonymity, said that if the terror cell members arrested in Pakistan and Britain had appropriate weapons and explosives training, they could have emulated massive attacks like those five years ago in New York and Washington as well as the July 7, 2005, London bombings.

Sure, and if I had an IQ of 200 and a PhD in oncology maybe I could find a cure for cancer. But since I don't, no one should stay up nights waiting for me to produce one. Likewise, there are lots of dimwit copycats who'd like to be the next Osama bin Laden, but they're not worth more than a routine roundup unless they have the serious operational capacity to do something about it. These guys, on the contrary, "had not attended terror-training camps in Pakistan or Afghanistan and had relied on information gleaned from text books on how to make bombs."

So: was this a serious conspiracy? Or was it like the plot to destroy the Brooklyn Bridge that turned out to be a mentally disturbed dude with a blowtorch? Or the financial district alert in New York City that turned out to be based on information more than three years old? Or the plot to blow up the Sears Tower that turned out to be "more aspirational than operational"? Or Jose Padilla? What news about this plot are we going to discover buried on page A13 a couple of weeks from now?

I won't pretend to know what to think about the way this has been handled. Was it about winning elections? Building public support for draconian security legislation? Plain old bureaucratic incompetence?

Or was it real?

Kevin Drum 12:42 AM Permalink | Trackbacks | Comments (107)
 
Comments

These guys, on the contrary, "had not attended terror-training camps in Pakistan or Afghanistan and had relied on information gleaned from text books on how to make bombs."

Sounds like Natasha and Boris in an episode of Bullwinkle.

Posted by: koreyel on August 17, 2006 at 12:51 AM | PERMALINK

In the words of Josh Marshall, have we been bamboozled?

Posted by: Old Hat on August 17, 2006 at 12:51 AM | PERMALINK

D'ja think the WH could possibly be hyping the threat of terrorism for political purposes? Nah, impossible! Remember, the grown-ups are in charge. Honor and integrity have been restored to Washington!

Posted by: Gen. Jack D. Ripper on August 17, 2006 at 12:54 AM | PERMALINK

NEWSFLASH! The Unabomber never attended terror-training camps in Pakistan or Afghanistan and had to rely on information gleaned from text books on how to make bombs too!

Hmm, good analogy! This motley grab bag of suspects is just like a lone, whacked out Harvard Ph.D. math genius Luddite who lived in a cabin in the woods and who actually was a terrorist.

Posted by: Old Hat on August 17, 2006 at 12:56 AM | PERMALINK

I'm guessing "not real" since they haven't released any good damning information yet. If they had it, they'd surely have released some (at least non-identifying) bits - to justify their expensive and invasive airport searches, if for no other reason.

Like with pre-war Iraqi WMD claims, they kept gesturing in the direction of it, but there was never any "there" there. When the whole world was waiting for the case to be made, they kept stalling. That means there's nothing there, I'd put it 95 to 1.

Posted by: luci on August 17, 2006 at 12:56 AM | PERMALINK

The Unabomber, for all his evil, didn't disable our transportaton system or cause the civlized world to tie itself up in knots. We are doing this, partly out of legitimate fear, but also because ANY threat tends to justify the power lust of certain politicians. At some point, we may want to assess these threats soberly instead of hysterically. Yes, fear can be fun. But it's ultimately counterproductive for the maintenance of global civilization.

Posted by: walt on August 17, 2006 at 12:57 AM | PERMALINK


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Posted by: dfdsa on August 17, 2006 at 12:57 AM | PERMALINK

In related news, when will Mr. Drum finally drop his "gotta take terrorism seriously" mantra? (seems he goes back and forth between arguing it's just good and necessary electoral strategy, and the honest "truth")

Posted by: luci on August 17, 2006 at 1:02 AM | PERMALINK

And don't forget the nutjob 'Muslim' cult from Florida, whose name nobody could even agree on. Haven't hear much about them lately.

Posted by: Garamond12 on August 17, 2006 at 1:03 AM | PERMALINK

Was it about winning elections? Building public support for draconian security legislation? Plain old bureaucratic incompetence?

The latter.
The former.
The inbetween.

Except here... in what we call modern day Bush-reality... instead of calling "WOLF! WOLF! WOLF!" these administrative hacks were following orders and shouting "MOOSE! MOOSE! MOOSE!"

Unbelivable.

Wow...

In fact... Boris and Natasha were so good... hell... they didn't even need passports either.

ROFLMAO...

BOO!!!!!

The repug bogey man strikes again!


Posted by: koreyel on August 17, 2006 at 1:05 AM | PERMALINK

I'm still embarrassed that I used to regularly purchase my country's two national newspapers. They both had screaming headlines with front-page trans-atlantic maps and nifty diagrams with little jetplanes and dotted lines; many more pages inside about TERROR and CHAOS. And here's dumb ol' unworldly me thinking, 'shouldn't this only be a big story if something actually happened?'

And Thomas1, you 'still think[ing] they were intent on blowing up planes' is the point many of us are making here. Dupes and willing believers fall for this crap. That's how the neo-cons roll.

Posted by: exasperanto on August 17, 2006 at 1:15 AM | PERMALINK

Wouldn't it be the pits if OBL was willing to sacrefice several cells of incompetent ne'er-do-wells just to gin up the "boy (George) crying wolf" factor while he sets up "the big one".

Posted by: Keith G on August 17, 2006 at 1:15 AM | PERMALINK

I vote for "winning elections."

Posted by: pol on August 17, 2006 at 1:17 AM | PERMALINK

Wouldn't it be the pits if OBL was willing to sacrefice several cells of incompetent ne'er-do-wells just to gin up the "boy (George) crying wolf" factor while he sets up "the big one".
Posted by: Keith G on August 17, 2006 at 1:15 AM | PERMALINK

The double digit IQ in the White House is more than eager to take the bait.

Posted by: jcricket on August 17, 2006 at 1:20 AM | PERMALINK

Craig Murphy, the former British ambassador to Uzbekistan, (and was cashiered, he says, because he fought against U.S.- and U.K.-aided humaan rights abuses there) says the plot is an utter fabrication, by two pols in dire straits:


Check out his site:
http://www.craigmurray.co.uk/archives/2006/08/the_uk_terror_p.html

Craig

Posted by: mike on August 17, 2006 at 1:22 AM | PERMALINK

...incompetent ne'er-do-wells just to gin up the "boy (George) crying wolf"...

According to the BBC nobody has yet been charged. How do you gin up a plot that looks big and scary, yet nobody gets charged?

Posted by: exasperanto on August 17, 2006 at 1:25 AM | PERMALINK

Building public support for draconian security legislation?

John Reid gave a speech talking about the need to push through another wad of security legislation, and damn the judges and civil liberties types. Next day, the raids happen. Reid's been the most high-profile minister while Blair's in Barbados, and polling suggests that he'll get greater public support for his anti-terrah legislation now. Various MPs are muttering about Reid as a challenger to Gordon Brown, though if the throttling of Britain's airports at the height of the tourist season turns out to be against a bunch of amateurs, those prospects may well be down the privy.

Not all politics happens on this side of the pond. But the echoes travel quite fast.

I'm guessing "not real" since they haven't released any good damning information yet. If they had it, they'd surely have released some (at least non-identifying) bits - to justify their expensive and invasive airport searches, if for no other reason.

I disagree. Sub judice is taken seriously in the UK, and any substantive leaks from there before charging might damage the chance of a prosecution. Although the fact that Blair hasn't bothered to pack up his suntan lotion speaks for itself.

Posted by: ahem on August 17, 2006 at 1:27 AM | PERMALINK

Thomas:

Because she doesn't believe you actually exist :)

Bob

Posted by: rmck1 on August 17, 2006 at 1:28 AM | PERMALINK

Was it about winning elections? Building public support for draconian security legislation? Plain old bureaucratic incompetence?

You know, there's such a fine line....

Posted by: Stefan on August 17, 2006 at 1:29 AM | PERMALINK

Craig Murphy, the former British ambassador to Uzbekistan, (and was cashiered, he says, because he fought against U.S.- and U.K.-aided humaan rights abuses there) says the plot is an utter fabrication, by two pols in dire straits:


Check out his site:
http://www.craigmurray.co.uk/archives/2006/08/the_uk_terror_p.html

Craig

Posted by: mike on August 17, 2006 at 1:30 AM | PERMALINK

Thomas1: P.S. koreyel -- last time I checked, you don't need a passport to blow up a plane.

The story we've been given is that these guys were planning to get bomb making ingredients past security by disguising the separate ingredients of a binary explosive in containers commonly permitted in carry on bags -- various liquids, etc. Then the (inert) ingredients in two different containers were to be combined by someone on the airplane, hence forming the explosive mixture. To do this, one needs to be on the plane. To get on the plane, bound for a foreign country such as the US, I believe one either needs to have a passport, or be an employee of the airline or the airport. Or be Jack Baur.

The red pill or the blue pill?

Posted by: Mister Anderson on August 17, 2006 at 1:32 AM | PERMALINK

*sigh* After a certain point saying "I told you so" really does lose its zest. I've been saying "I told you so" so much over the past five years that I'm thinking of just getting those words printed on a card that I can simply hold up.

Posted by: Stefan on August 17, 2006 at 1:35 AM | PERMALINK

The UK Terror plot: what's really going on?

I have been reading very carefully through all the Sunday newspapers to try and analyse the truth from all the scores of pages claiming to detail the so-called bomb plot. Unlike the great herd of so-called security experts doing the media analysis, I have the advantage of having had the very highest security clearances myself, having done a huge amount of professional intelligence analysis, and having been inside the spin machine.

So this, I believe, is the true story.

None of the alleged terrorists had made a bomb. None had bought a plane ticket. Many did not even have passports, which given the efficiency of the UK Passport Agency would mean they couldn't be a plane bomber for quite some time.

In the absence of bombs and airline tickets, and in many cases passports, it could be pretty difficult to convince a jury beyond reasonable doubt that individuals intended to go through with suicide bombings, whatever rash stuff they may have bragged in internet chat rooms.

What is more, many of those arrested had been under surveillance for over a year - like thousands of other British Muslims. And not just Muslims. Like me. Nothing from that surveillance had indicated the need for early arrests.

Then an interrogation in Pakistan revealed the details of this amazing plot to blow up multiple planes - which, rather extraordinarily, had not turned up in a year of surveillance. Of course, the interrogators of the Pakistani dictator have their ways of making people sing like canaries. As I witnessed in Uzbekistan, you can get the most extraordinary information this way. Trouble is it always tends to give the interrogators all they might want, and more, in a desperate effort to stop or avert torture. What it doesn't give is the truth.

The gentleman being "interrogated" had fled the UK after being wanted for questioning over the murder of his uncle some years ago. That might be felt to cast some doubt on his reliability. It might also be felt that factors other than political ones might be at play within these relationships. Much is also being made of large transfers of money outside the formal economy. Not in fact too unusual in the British Muslim community, but if this activity is criminal, there are many possibilities that have nothing to do with terrorism.

We then have the extraordinary question of Bush and Blair discussing the possible arrests over the weekend. Why? I think the answer to that is plain. Both in desperate domestic political trouble, they longed for "Another 9/11". The intelligence from Pakistan, however dodgy, gave them a new 9/11 they could sell to the media. The media has bought, wholesale, all the rubbish they have been shovelled.

We then have the appalling political propaganda of John Reid, Home Secretary, making a speech warning us all of the dreadful evil threatening us and complaining that "Some people don't get" the need to abandon all our traditional liberties. He then went on, according to his own propaganda machine, to stay up all night and minutely direct the arrests. There could be no clearer evidence that our Police are now just a political tool. Like all the best nasty regimes, the knock on the door came in the middle of the night, at 2.30am. Those arrested included a mother with a six week old baby.

For those who don't know, it is worth introducing Reid. A hardened Stalinist with a long term reputation for personal violence, at Stirling Univeristy he was the Communist Party's "Enforcer", (in days when the Communist Party ran Stirling University Students' Union, which it should not be forgotten was a business with a very substantial cash turnover). Reid was sent to beat up those who deviated from the Party line.

We will now never know if any of those arrested would have gone on to make a bomb or buy a plane ticket. Most of them do not fit the "Loner" profile you would expect - a tiny percentage of suicide bombers have happy marriages and young children. As they were all under surveillance, and certainly would have been on airport watch lists, there could have been little danger in letting them proceed closer to maturity - that is certainly what we would have done with the IRA.

In all of this, the one thing of which I am certain is that the timing is deeply political. This is more propaganda than plot. Of the over one thousand British Muslims arrested under anti-terrorist legislation, only twelve per cent are ever charged with anything. That is simply harrassment of Muslims on an appalling scale. Of those charged, 80% are acquitted. Most of the very few - just over two per cent of arrests - who are convicted, are not convicted of anything to do terrorism, but of some minor offence the Police happened upon while trawling through the wreck of the lives they had shattered.

Be sceptical. Be very, very sceptical.

Posted by: Craig Murray on August 17, 2006 at 1:36 AM | PERMALINK

By the way, yes it's late but perhaps most can restrain themselves from indulging Charlie/Thomas and his multiple alter egos in his lunatic scenarios? Just because he writes nonsense doesn't mean you have to respond to it....

Posted by: Stefan on August 17, 2006 at 1:38 AM | PERMALINK

The more this happens, the righter I am about 9/11 - it was a lucky strike in every sense.

But by all means, let's spend all our time running around in circles, panicking about crazy brown people.

Posted by: craigie on August 17, 2006 at 1:39 AM | PERMALINK

In the absence of bombs and airline tickets, and in many cases passports,

OK, so they weren't organized, had no idea what they were doing, didn't have the necessary equipment or training, didn't have the money, didn't have a plan....hmmmm. Are we sure that, instead of a bombing, they weren't simply planning an invasion of Iraq instead?

Posted by: Stefan on August 17, 2006 at 1:41 AM | PERMALINK

Just because he writes nonsense doesn't mean you have to respond to it....

Indeed, if you stand back, he'll just respond to himself. Which is best for everyone, really.

Posted by: craigie on August 17, 2006 at 1:42 AM | PERMALINK

Are we sure that, instead of a bombing, they weren't simply planning an invasion of Iraq instead?

We have a winner!

Posted by: craigie on August 17, 2006 at 1:43 AM | PERMALINK

But by all means, let's spend all our time running around in circles, panicking about crazy brown people.

Reminds me of a background bit in The Simpsons. Mr. Burns calls a fire drill at the nuclear plant, and after the alarm goes off there's one little guy in the background, out of his mind with fear, actually running around in a circle and saying over and over again "fire! fire! fire! fire! fire! fire! fire!....." If that was a real person instead of a cartoon he'd be fully qualified as a Fox "News" terrorism analyst.....

Posted by: Stefan on August 17, 2006 at 1:45 AM | PERMALINK

Stefan, Craigie,

Duly noted.

Posted by: Mister Anderson on August 17, 2006 at 1:45 AM | PERMALINK

What news about this plot are we going to discover buried on page A13 a couple of weeks from now?

That it was really Colonel Mustard in the Conservatory with the Rope.

Posted by: craigie on August 17, 2006 at 1:47 AM | PERMALINK

If that was a real person instead of a cartoon he'd be fully qualified as a Fox "News" terrorism analyst.....

I'm sorry, but what's the distinction here?

Posted by: craigie on August 17, 2006 at 1:48 AM | PERMALINK

In the absence of bombs and airline tickets, and in many cases passports

Passports? We ain't got no passports. We don't need no passports. I don't have to show you any stinking passports!

Posted by: Said the Pakistaxican on August 17, 2006 at 1:49 AM | PERMALINK

The cartoons have more depth.

Posted by: Stefan on August 17, 2006 at 1:49 AM | PERMALINK

And humanity.

Posted by: Stefan on August 17, 2006 at 1:50 AM | PERMALINK

I would prefer to get my news from a cartoon character. It would be a lot more trustworthy, and have better hair.

Posted by: craigie on August 17, 2006 at 1:55 AM | PERMALINK

Kevin: 'Sure, and if I had an IQ of 200 and a PhD in oncology maybe I could find a cure for cancer.'

Very, very funny, Kevin

Posted by: nepeta on August 17, 2006 at 2:00 AM | PERMALINK

I will wager you $100 for 95 to 1 odds there was an actionable intent to blow up planes -- passports or not -- care to put your money where your mouth is?

Shutup, gringo. Online betting is against the law you criminal, you. Maybe I should call the Federalies.

Posted by: Said the Pakistaxican on August 17, 2006 at 2:02 AM | PERMALINK

Kevin Drum,

You've got Black Helicopters on Line 1.

Buy tin and aluminum foil long.

Posted by: Birkel on August 17, 2006 at 2:04 AM | PERMALINK

Speaking of plots that never were, in the Spring I was in London, and during that time there was a police raid on a house, where they actually shot a guy (who lived) and also arrested his brother. That was supposed to be the culmination of a major terrorist investigation too - and it unraveled in days. I don't think either of them was ever charged...

Posted by: craigie on August 17, 2006 at 2:12 AM | PERMALINK

NEWSFLASH! The Unabomber never attended terror-training camps in Pakistan or Afghanistan and had to rely on information gleaned from text books on how to make bombs too!

NEWSFLASH! George W Bush never attended terror-training camps in Pakistan or Afghanistan, and had to rely on very expensive taxpayer-funded defense contractors to make bombs too!

P.S. koreyel -- last time I checked, you don't need a passport to blow up a plane.
Posted by: Thomas1 on August 17, 2006 at 1:07 AM | PERMALINK

I get onto international flights without a passport all the time.
(Republic of Texas *is* another nation. Isn't it?)

On the other hand, every time I've returned to the US via Heathrow, I've had to show my passport at check in.

I will wager you $100 for 95 to 1 odds there was an actionable intent to blow up planes -- passports or not -- care to put your money where your mouth is?
Posted by: Thomas1 on August 17, 2006 at 1:53 AM | PERMALINK

What the hell is the point of that? The only way you could ever collect is if we all went back in time, convinced the police not to arrest the "terrorists", and instead watch and wait and see what they do - if and only if they ever took their plan successfully to its conclusion.

I'm not saying it's impossible, of course. I'm just saying, with planes still in the air, and no material evidence, you can't conclusively prove that these guys were a threat.

Though if the debate is whether people can be charged for "conspiracy" - I won't argue against that.

Buy tin and aluminum foil long.
Posted by: Birkel on August 17, 2006 at 2:04 AM | PERMALINK

Shows how much you know. Aluminum foil is useless. Insist on real Tin.

And the statistical corellation between terror alerts and elections has already been well established. What has not been well established is even one single serious plot since 9/11, prior to successful execution. Excluding the botched London Subway round 2.

Posted by: osama_been_forgotten on August 17, 2006 at 2:34 AM | PERMALINK

The Met had to make a public apology to them,craigie...very embarrassing.

Posted by: AlanM on August 17, 2006 at 2:37 AM | PERMALINK

Don't forget the cell-phone-bombers arrested over the past weekend who turned out to be good ole capitalists.

Posted by: Rosali on August 17, 2006 at 3:58 AM | PERMALINK

"Was it about winning elections?"

Bingo. Isn't it way, way past time that this crowd stops getting any benefit of the doubt?

Posted by: Doofus on August 17, 2006 at 4:39 AM | PERMALINK

I was speaking to my taxi driver in Munich the day this was announced and we both agreed that it would turn out to be fake and that it would just be a few kids shooting the shit about blowing things up.

I wonder if they will re-think the racial profiling in security and all the other crap they want to have us do, and I am pretty certain that that won't happen.

And, now the British are trying to change the security rules for aviation in the EU where it was pretty relaxed and still a joy to fly.

Posted by: Michele on August 17, 2006 at 5:00 AM | PERMALINK

If someone had bet with Thomas1 3 years ago that Iraq had WMD, he would now pretend to cash in. You know, there were WMD... that link... whatever.

So sure, everybody is ready to bet with him that this was a plot, 20 planes should have exploded.
You know, the cousin of that guy they arrested attended once in a sermon of a hate-mullah, and his wife sent an email to the mother of a guy who acknowledged he knew Bin Laden and Chavez after not even 2 months in the "Pakistan security forces Inn". So Thomas wins.

The sad part is that Blair and Bush are slowly becoming as trustworthy for other head of states to deal with as Thomas.

Posted by: umpire on August 17, 2006 at 5:11 AM | PERMALINK

Hey Guys, if you don't want to repsond to Thomas1 you can respond to me; and I don't believe you need a passport to blow up a plane

Posted by: GOP on August 17, 2006 at 5:20 AM | PERMALINK

I keep telling you - There is no al-Qaeda. Period. Other than some nutcase wannabes like Zarqawi. There are lots and lots of angry Muslims, to be sure, especially after the wanton slaughter of Muslim people that has occurred since Bush seized power. But this is all a ruse - concocted by the same people who oversold the threat of the Soviet Union (Team B).

It's governance by fear. Plain and simple.

Posted by: The Conservative Deflator on August 17, 2006 at 6:02 AM | PERMALINK

To cut the argument short - a passport is required to board any international flight originating in the UK, or to join any international flight transiting the UK, or to enter or leave the UK via any other form of transport. Photographic ID is required to join any domestic flight in the UK.

British and Irish citizens do not need travel documents to travel between the UK and the Republic, but you do need to be able to prove you are one.

Posted by: Alex on August 17, 2006 at 6:19 AM | PERMALINK

GOP

When was the last time you tried to get on an airplane from Europe to the USA without a passport? If you havent tried it since 9/11, please cease to post about it. The passport gets checked more than once, in my experience.

Posted by: troglodyte on August 17, 2006 at 7:06 AM | PERMALINK

Of course, and this is for AL who worships at the feet of Bush/Robe, it really doesn't matter how legitimate or credible these threats are in actuality...you can be SURE there will be many more between now and November and they will be similar. It's all about getting those sheeple to say "You don't have any FREEDOMS if you're DEAD!!!" That's the message they'll ride in on again...because FEAR WORKS!!! Especially once you've scrubbed the minds of the electorate so that THINKING is no longer a part of their processing!

Posted by: Dancer on August 17, 2006 at 7:37 AM | PERMALINK

I have to presume everything I read or hear from any governmental entity, security or law enforcement agency or politician is a calculated lie. I trust nothing they say and am at a loss as to how to scrutinize their pronouncements when looking for what is really happening in the world. Someone tell me, is ANYTHING that comes out of Bush's mouth the truth? To me it's all Machiavellian gibberish spouted by a venal despot.

Posted by: steve duncan on August 17, 2006 at 8:15 AM | PERMALINK

"So: was this a serious conspiracy? Or was it like the plot to destroy the Brooklyn Bridge that turned out to be a mentally disturbed dude with a blowtorch? Or the financial district alert in New York City that turned out to be based on information more than three years old? Or the plot to blow up the Sears Tower that turned out to be "more aspirational than operational"? Or Jose Padilla? What news about this plot are we going to discover buried on page A13 a couple of weeks from now?"

If the 9/11 suspects were arrested before 9/11, I can see liberals making the exact same arguments.

Posted by: Freedom Fighter on August 17, 2006 at 8:25 AM | PERMALINK

'NEWSFLASH! The Unabomber never attended terror-training camps in Pakistan or Afghanistan and had to rely on information gleaned from text books on how to make bombs too!
Posted by: Thomas1 on August 17, 2006 at 12:52 AM | PERMALINK"

The unibomber was a certified genius. A mad genius but a genius none the less. From what I have read, these clowns, not so much.

Posted by: Ron Byers on August 17, 2006 at 8:27 AM | PERMALINK

The Bushliars will continue to manufacture terrorist plots and incidents from now through November.

Just like Hitler, Stalin, Mussolini, Noriega, the Shah of Iran, Saddam, and a host of other conservative dictators have in the past.

Rule by Fear - the GOP motto.

Posted by: Advocate for God on August 17, 2006 at 9:12 AM | PERMALINK

"or was it real?"

You do us & yourself a dissrevice by making that the last sentence of your post - hanging out there alone in the frozen tundra.

Are you still afraid Kevin? You shouldn't be.

This "polt" is no more real than was my old college roomate who learned how to make a pipe-bomb out of household materials from something called "The Anarchist's Handbook" or something like that.

Today he has 2.5 kids & lives in the suburbs. Even then his only really lawless acts were sending false 20 box pizza orders to people who'd pissed him off.

This is that & everyone knows it, or should.

Posted by: sidewinder on August 17, 2006 at 9:18 AM | PERMALINK

What I want to know is more about these so-called liquid bombs made with "common household substances." If it's really true that you can make a serious bomb this way, the implications go way beyond air travel. Trains, buses, subways, theaters, shopping malls, sports events, - the possiblities are endless. This is very scary if it's true.

How much is there really to this liquid bomb idea? Surely our diligent protectors have tested this idea. I wonder if they have actually succeeded in making one go off?

Posted by: Virginia Dutch on August 17, 2006 at 9:19 AM | PERMALINK

"The Bushliars will continue to manufacture terrorist plots and incidents from now through November."

If a plot is foiled, then Bushies obviously manufactured it. Of course, if it was not foiled, then the Bushies failed to connect the dots. Looks like you got all your talking points covered. And liberals wonder why you guys aren't taken seriously on national security.

Posted by: Freedom Fighter on August 17, 2006 at 9:24 AM | PERMALINK

Freedom F*cker: And liberals wonder why you guys aren't taken seriously on national security.

Liberals (Democrats) have been leading conservatives (Republicans) on national security in national polls this summer - that's pretty serious.

Now you know why you aren't taken seriously.

Posted by: Advocate for God on August 17, 2006 at 9:26 AM | PERMALINK

Seems as though the authorities are glossing over some details. See this informative (and witty) writeup on the difficulty of daily practical application of "binary liquid explosives":

Was the Plot Feasible?

Posted by: Doug Bostrom on August 17, 2006 at 9:27 AM | PERMALINK

"From what I have read, these clowns, not so much."

Of course had the plan succeeded, it would would be characterized by Kevin Drum as a "brilliant", "one off" attacks that would not be repeated again.

Posted by: Freedom Fighter on August 17, 2006 at 9:28 AM | PERMALINK

"Liberals (Democrats) have been leading conservatives (Republicans) on national security in national polls this summer - that's pretty serious.

Now you know why you aren't taken seriously."

What's this? A quote from 2004? LOL!

Posted by: Freedom Fighter on August 17, 2006 at 9:31 AM | PERMALINK

Terrorism has a long history. From that history we know that amateurs conceive most plots. In modern times most of these plots have been foiled or come up as duds. The ease with which British security identified the perpetrators of this and the Tube bombing indicate a certain lack of sophistication. The IRA was much more professional.

These attacks seem to be sympathy plots. To my mind, I have said this before, Middle Eastern terror is very similar to the anarchist terror of the 19th century. It is merely a set of common tactics used by unconnected groups, some are professional (even false flags) but most are not, fighting and advertising relatively unconnected struggles. The Tube bombers were not particularly religious, they were average British youth, and were woefully young. They are connected in the sense that they are against Anglo-Israeli intervention in the Middle East. They are either anitmodern reactionaries, nationalists, or, again, sympathetic actors who find the situation in the Middle East unjust and oppressive.

The American psychological need to see a wicked and powerful enemy dedicated to a single monolithic doctrine says more about Americans than it does the Middle East (American partisan politics always smacks of protestantism- little 'p' ). It is even more absurd to view the Middle East and Middle Eastern "terrorism" in this way than it was the Soviet Union and communism.

Posted by: bellumregio on August 17, 2006 at 9:35 AM | PERMALINK

The fact that the administration was using hundreds of thousands when predicting the carnage these would-be hijackers could unleash instead of the thousand or so of the reality, informs me that people under the thumb screw of the Pakistani secret police will make up phantastic tales to stop the torture.

Plots. This word has been resurrected from the 1930's to spread fear, uncertainty and dread.

Posted by: Hostile on August 17, 2006 at 9:52 AM | PERMALINK

Was it about winning elections? Building public support for draconian security legislation? Plain old bureaucratic incompetence?

Yes

Posted by: klyde on August 17, 2006 at 10:10 AM | PERMALINK

Thomas1,
You really think they aren't going to check passports for flights bound to the United States in this day and age? What would the purpose of a no-fly list be, then?

If an airline brings somebody into the United States without a passport, they get a HUGE fine. They make sure it doesn't happen, and the DON'T check the passports in the air.

Posted by: DR on August 17, 2006 at 10:12 AM | PERMALINK

"The Tube bombers were not particularly religious, they were average British youth, and were woefully young."

Does that make them not particularly Moslems?

Posted by: Freedom Fighter on August 17, 2006 at 10:13 AM | PERMALINK

Why do you people love terrorists so much? Isn't it obvious that these Pakistanis are probably al-Qaida dupes who want to destroy our president and help get Ned Lamont elected so he can dismantle the whole military? Don't you people know Osama reads exit polls?

I'll tell you want happened - Osama personally planned this whole operation, but they weren't ever going to really blow up any planes. They just wanted us to think that at first, and now they start leaking all this "it's not the serious" crap to make Bush look bad! When will you people wake up and realize that America is under attack and if weren't for FOX News we'd all be dead by now?

Posted by: Tim on August 17, 2006 at 10:18 AM | PERMALINK

When was the last time you tried to get on an airplane from Europe to the USA without a passport?

i'v done it numerous times of course i'm traveling with 5 sets of military orders when i do it but it can be done;-).

But thomas1 and GOP, (who i think was kidding) are right, technically you don't need a passport to blow up a plane. You need one to get onto an international flight between the UK and the US but that's not what they said. Darn clever that troll.

Posted by: klyde on August 17, 2006 at 10:20 AM | PERMALINK

If a plot is foiled, then Bushies obviously manufactured it. Of course, if it was not foiled, then the Bushies failed to connect the dots. Looks like you got all your talking points covered. And liberals wonder why you guys aren't taken seriously on national security.

Posted by: Freedom Fighter

So all Bush's government can accomplish is stopping people who think they can bring down the Brooklyn Bridge with blowtorches, but it's our fault? Stephen Colbert was right: reality has a liberal bias.

Posted by: Cyrus on August 17, 2006 at 10:20 AM | PERMALINK

"So all Bush's government can accomplish is stopping people who think they can bring down the Brooklyn Bridge with blowtorches, but it's our fault? Stephen Colbert was right: reality has a liberal bias."

Your fault? I wasn't assigning blame, I was only pointing out the fact that you guys talk out of both sides of your mouths and can't be taken seriously. I am sure you'd be taking the: "are we supposed to believe box cutters were to bring down airliners?" line of attack had 9/11 been foiled. For a self proclaimed reality based lot, you guys suuure love polls, but hate actual election results.

Posted by: Freedom Fighter on August 17, 2006 at 10:51 AM | PERMALINK

"Why do you people love terrorists so much? Isn't it obvious that these Pakistanis are probably al-Qaida dupes who want to destroy our president and help get Ned Lamont elected so he can dismantle the whole military? Don't you people know Osama reads exit polls?"

Don't forget to cite Spain as a perfect example.

Posted by: Freedom Fighter on August 17, 2006 at 10:54 AM | PERMALINK

Freedom F*cker: What's this? A quote from 2004? LOL!

Yet another example of conservative denial and hallucinatory reality.

Yes, you need all the luck you can get!

Posted by: Advocate for God on August 17, 2006 at 10:57 AM | PERMALINK

Freedom F*cker: Don't forget to cite Spain as a perfect example.

Yes, it is a perfect example of your stupidity and mendacity.

Posted by: Advocate for God on August 17, 2006 at 10:59 AM | PERMALINK

Freedom F*cker: . . . the fact that you guys talk out of both sides of your mouths . . .

This is a fact that applies to convservatives, like you, far more.

Posted by: Advocate for God on August 17, 2006 at 11:01 AM | PERMALINK

I'm the last person to give 'terrorists' any help but I heard if you drop an Altoid into a warm diet coke you get an explosive reaction.

And aren't Altoids mode in England? Hmmmmmmm.

The real kicker will be hearing how they planned on smuggling a couple tons of Altoids onto the plane. That and the thousands of gallons of diet coke required.

But if they did do that every window in the plane would blow out simultaneously and the ocean would wash away all evidence. "Curiously Strong" indeed.

Posted by: Tripp on August 17, 2006 at 11:09 AM | PERMALINK

The party of Hate and Fear strikes again. They want Americans (and Brits) to live in a permanent state of emergency, which allows them to justify their empire abroad and police state measures at home.

But remember, conservatives are against big government!

Posted by: Red on August 17, 2006 at 11:29 AM | PERMALINK

Tripp, it's not Altoids, it's Mentos, and Mentos sounds French, and we all know what that means. I think.

Posted by: Tim on August 17, 2006 at 11:32 AM | PERMALINK

Does that make them not particularly Moslems?
Posted by: Freedom Fighter

Oh, go ahead and call them "Mohammedans," Farter, that's obviously what you want to do.

Posted by: Ace Franze on August 17, 2006 at 11:34 AM | PERMALINK

Typical- but I am always amazed at well the strategy works: hysterical news coverage, corrections buried deep in the paper, a general feeling confirmed that "they" are out to get us AND that you can't trust any news sources. Both benefit the administration.

Posted by: higtaper on August 17, 2006 at 11:38 AM | PERMALINK

Dammit Tim, I was trying to mislead the terrorists. I figured none of them had seen Myth Busters or have access to google.

Now that you've let the cat out of the bag I'll point out that active ingredient in the French Menthos is gum arabic!!

Yes, I'm not making this up. Those clever bastards - laying the foundations for their explosive devices decades before they are needed.

I don't think I need to say any more because a nod is as good as a wink if you know what I mean. And I know that you do.

Posted by: Tripp on August 17, 2006 at 11:52 AM | PERMALINK

Read this:

Groundhog Day

James K. Galbraith
http://www.thenation.com/doc/20060828/groundhog_day

'So, there must have been training. That means there must be a lab, or labs. There must have been trial bombs. There must be various bits and pieces of equipment used to mix the chemicals and set them off. There must be a manual. There must be a testing ground. And each one of the young men under arrest must have been to these places. Interestingly, it must have all happened, too, without a serious accident, injury or death among the conspirators. If so, they are a lot more competent than the Weather Underground ever was, in my day.

Arrests were made at night, catching the culprits at home. Houses have been raided, and are being searched. So far as we know at this point, no bombs have been found. No chemicals. No equipment. No labs. No testing ground. '

No passports? No bookings?

Posted by: CFShep on August 17, 2006 at 12:01 PM | PERMALINK

I keep hoping and praying for someone, somewhere to uncover the nefarious bra bombing plot. That is a security panic worth having.

Posted by: Freder Frederson on August 17, 2006 at 12:04 PM | PERMALINK

Kudos to Doug Bostrom for posting that link to The Register on binary explosives. An absolute must-read.

Yeah, they could've potentially made some TATP -- tons of accutrements including an ice cooler that they'd have to cart to the loo in several stages. Just like it's technically feasable they could have cooked up a batch of crystal meth in there, too ...

Binary explosives, though, are a figment of our action film-besotted imaginations. The odds of making enough TATP -- which requires a carefully controlled and cooled reaction -- to bring down an airplane instead of *maybe* just killing the mixers are close to infinitesimal.

Please all of you -- read that link. The info sources are chemistry professors and not Homeland Security pork-leveraging "terrorist experts." Binary explosives mixed on-site of a terrorist incident are a fucking myth.

Bob

Posted by: rmck1 on August 17, 2006 at 12:07 PM | PERMALINK

*sigh* After a certain point saying "I told you so" really does lose its zest. I've been saying "I told you so" so much over the past five years that I'm thinking of just getting those words printed on a card that I can simply hold up.
Posted by: Stefan

5 years? What a rookie. I started back in 1970 - I was talking about the fact we had just become a net oil importing state and wondering how US wages and standards of living were even remotely sustainable.

But - I'm a just woman (who nevertheless passed the Foreign Service Exam as an undergrad at NoName U a couple of years later) and I guess they just thought I was eager to discuss 'gender issues'.

Me and Sharon Watkins...

Posted by: CFShep on August 17, 2006 at 12:09 PM | PERMALINK

If an airline brings somebody into the United States without a passport, they get a HUGE fine. They make sure it doesn't happen, and the DON'T check the passports in the air.

Not only that but the airline has to foot the bill to immediately return that passenger to the country of origin. Obviously, people who are claiming you can get on a transatlantic flight without a passport (with very limited exceptions, e.g., U.S. military personnel travelling on orders to some, but not, all NATO countries) have never been on one. You have to show your passport when you check in, when you enter the international terminal, and usually nowadays, when you board. And since the Pan Am bombing your luggage claim checks are cross-checked to make sure everyone who checked baggage actually gets on the plane.

Posted by: Freder Frederson on August 17, 2006 at 12:13 PM | PERMALINK

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20060817/ap_on_re_us/flight_diverted

This will show the terrorist we mean business

Posted by: klyde on August 17, 2006 at 12:14 PM | PERMALINK

My apologies. I didn't realize that Kevin had already linked to J.K.G. down the page.

Ooopsie. Must have become temporarily unhinged by photo Op of aWol astride a Harley declaiming about 'free trade'.

Vroom!

"Harley-Davidson's example also is something less than a pure free-trade success. In 1983, the company won special trade protection from the Reagan administration that raised tariffs on imported Japanese bikes to 49% from 4%."

And this doozie:

" The death of Cuban President Fidel Castro by itself will trigger no change in the United States' 40-year-old trade embargo on the communist island. "The system has to change," he said. "Trade (with Cuba) doesn't directly benefit the people. Trade benefits the elite.""

Note that ONLY trade with tiny impoverished Cuba has this effect because he goes on to say:

'Americans underestimate the challenges facing Chinese leaders as they seek to modernize their sprawling nation of 1.3 billion people. "I don't think people in the United States really understand," he said. "They've got enormous internal problems that they are working hard to deal with. Frankly, it's in our interest that we help them deal with them."

Arrrrgh!

Posted by: CFShep on August 17, 2006 at 12:29 PM | PERMALINK

If you folks would just read the article Kevin linked to, you would see that Thomas1 is correct that you don't need a passport or ticket to get on a plane in the UK:

"There was new concern about security after a 12-year-old boy managed to board a plane at Gatwick Airport on Monday without a passport, ticket or boarding pass. He was detected by cabin crew and removed before the flight took off."

Obviously this 12 yo boy is being trained for a future terrorist attack.

Posted by: Disputo on August 17, 2006 at 12:43 PM | PERMALINK

Kudos to Doug Bostrom for posting that link to The Register on binary explosives. An absolute must-read.

For sure, a very good read but depressing as hell. This "war on terror" is like a cheap varnish, you scratch at it and it's gone. Add this terror plot to the list of things like why the Republicans won't let us scan all sea-tainers coming into American ports. The war on terror is all about political theatre and not about making us substantively safer.

Posted by: cyntax on August 17, 2006 at 12:44 PM | PERMALINK

KD:So: was this a serious conspiracy? Or was it like the plot to...

you realize it doesn't matter now if it was serious or not?

the effects are here already. there's been a handy raising of the terror alert; spandy new regulations for the TSA to get all in a tizzy about and try to implement. lots of new reasons for jazzy graphics/music packages on CNN, MSNBC, FNC etc about terrorism and American under attack (?). oh, and heaping helpings of fodder for people who think that critizing the Preznit is tatamount to helping the terrorists, and/or that every Muslim is a potential terrorist and/or that we're, what's the phrase? "fighting them there blah blah blah"

if it was real it's been dealt with, yeah? arrests made, people jailed etc etc. security precautions taken. the new "new normal" (i so hate that phrase)

if it's exaggerated what's the diff? we're still living with the above, and whatever political fallout, for positive or negative, depending on your perspective, is already coming.


or were you expecting that if not real, the exaggeration would be exposed, and someone would say "never mind, bring your water bottles, put your shoes back on, everything's fine." were you expecting accountability for the people who might have exaggerated or rushed into things? i wouldn't.

Posted by: e1 on August 17, 2006 at 12:49 PM | PERMALINK

Too "In experienced" to carry out a suicide plot?

Exactly how many "experienced" suicide bombers are out there?

Posted by: clone12 on August 17, 2006 at 12:53 PM | PERMALINK

Good analysis e1. All the politicians and 'terrorists' have to do now is say the word plot, and Americans will line up and take off their clothes and submit themselves to cavity inspection without complaint. Submission to authority is the common goal of these antagonists. Americans have reacted as planned.

Posted by: Hostile on August 17, 2006 at 12:58 PM | PERMALINK

clone12:

How may "experienced" suicide bombers are there out there? None, by definition.

How many *in*experienced, would-be suicide bomber wannabes are there out there? A whole bunch.

You can tell them by their missing fingers and hands from trying to cook up a batch of "The Mother of Satan" in their kitchens.

Bob

Posted by: rmck1 on August 17, 2006 at 1:14 PM | PERMALINK


Terror is a form of political advertisement. It is a way to make your group relevant, at least in terms of the popular political agenda. For some paramilitary forces like ETA or the IRA it is a way to take your nationalist or sectarian struggle to the enemys soft underbelly.

In real wars against conventional or paramilitary forces leadership does not amplify the enemys propaganda scare tactics. To the contrary, when the threat of death and suffering is real, when the nation-state is credibly threatened (not in an existential way), the leadership calls for bravery, even indifference, in the face of the propaganda of destruction. The enemy is demonized but his propaganda is never amplified.

But when the enemy is very weak indeed and terror is used for political and not tactical reasons, politicians may turn to advertising the threat and offer security for votes. Republicans have been unabashed in exaggerating the threat and use terror as a meal ticket. Republicans have no better friend than Osama bin Laden. It helps them maintain their radical authoritarian agenda. Cheney, for his part, has used it to claim unprecedented dictatorial power for the executive. Something he feels the executive was unjustly stripped of after Watergate.

Posted by: bellumregio on August 17, 2006 at 1:20 PM | PERMALINK

BushCo probably thought the British agencies would just 'cover their ass' and forget about it, so they pushed them to close the trap too soon. A classic case of transference.

Posted by: Michael7843853 G-O in 08! on August 17, 2006 at 1:41 PM | PERMALINK

Recent history of homemade explosives

Posted by: data on August 17, 2006 at 1:48 PM | PERMALINK

More here.

Posted by: data on August 17, 2006 at 1:52 PM | PERMALINK

Typical- but I am always amazed at well the strategy works: hysterical news coverage, corrections buried deep in the paper, a general feeling confirmed that "they" are out to get us AND that you can't trust any news sources. Both benefit the administration.

Posted by: higtaper on August 17, 2006 at 2:00 PM | PERMALINK

The war on terror is all about political theatre and not about making us substantively safer.
Posted by: cyntax

Just so.

"This is an eternal war against terrorism. Its like a war against dandruff. Theres no such thing as a war against terrorism. Its idiotic. These are slogans. These are lies. Its advertising, which is the only art form we ever invented and developed." - Gore Vidal

p.s. Cyntax, sugar, we're supposed to confine our contributions to 'gender issues'.

Posted by: CFShep on August 17, 2006 at 2:07 PM | PERMALINK

"
I won't pretend to know what to think about the way this has been handled. Was it about winning elections? Building public support for draconian security legislation? Plain old bureaucratic incompetence?
"

Took your attention away from Lebanon for a few days, didn't it?
Mission accomplished.

Posted by: Maynard Handley on August 17, 2006 at 2:20 PM | PERMALINK

When are readers going to figure out that A13 is the secret front page, wrapped in 12 pages of ads and propaganda?

Posted by: skimble on August 17, 2006 at 2:33 PM | PERMALINK

p.s. Cyntax, sugar, we're supposed to confine our contributions to 'gender issues'.

Dammit, I forgot. Being a godawful-pinko-commie-lefty you'd think I could remember what my contribution is supposed to be.

Posted by: cyntax on August 17, 2006 at 6:34 PM | PERMALINK

I won't pretend to know what to think about the way this has been handled. Was it about winning elections? Building public support for draconian security legislation? Plain old bureaucratic incompetence?
Or was it real?

These two are not mutually exclusive! My feeling is that was at least a little of both.

[if they had weapons and explosives training], they could have emulated massive attacks like those five years ago in New York and Washington as well as the July 7, 2005, London bombings.
Sure, and if I had an IQ of 200 and a PhD in oncology maybe I could find a cure for cancer.

Amen on the BS statement... but:

In the Netherlands you could see that a kid considered one of the less worrying by the intelligence services can turn the country on its head once he gets a gun and uses it on the right person. The assessment of Mohammed B as a minor player was imho right. And how could it be wrong? The intelligence services offered this group a nice flat, (gas, water and microphones included!) and infiltrated the group. They may even have provided the hand grenades these kids would otherwise have a hard time getting. (If you want to infiltrate quickly, you have convince the group of your bad ass credentials quickly.... just ask the guy who killed infiltrators for the IRA.)

My point is by the time a boy only has friends who think alike there is the potential for radical acts that hurt bystanders regardless of details such as explosive skills. (Or in case of the white house, foreign policy skills)

And there are other details that make wannabes scary. One of the many girls in Mohammad B`s group asked a girlfriend who worked at a local pharmacy to look up the addresses of politicians. That worked great, though it was obviously captured on tape as she used a phone.... a rookie mistake. And the group recruited another kid who was just bright enough to work with luggage or food or something in the secure area of the international airport. Potentially catastrophic when combined with explosive skills and trained teamwork, still very bad when mixed with teenage tempers and kitchen knives.


That doesn't excuse those who talk only about this as if explosive, or at least ingredient, were found... but it may explain the choice to start the arrests.

It imho explains why intelligence services all over the world have had so few leaks saying politics are played with terror intelligence the way it was with WMD intelligence. Plenty of leaks there, just look for sexed up in the British press and BBC archives. But I can recall only the Mohamed Naeem Noor Khan story as a critique of politicizing terror intel.

No intelligence bureaucrat wants to take the blame in a why didn't you warn/act debate. (They learned that much from post 9/11 and post 7/7 and post madrid and post Mohammad B) And there will be a debate if one of these small cults of kids from the local Osama fan club do something crazy. Regardless of how small the destruction is.

Just think of the morale of and intelligence bureaucrat. Getting blamed for Iraq after great work (accurate on insurgency, accurate on wmd, you want more? try or aluminum tubes story, stay away from the Italian Niger forgery no one buys that shit, you did use the Niger shit, well go ahead and blame us, we will just think of our medal of freedom every time we hear inteligence failure), 9/11 after decent work, not getting credit for Afghanistan, blame after 7/7 after great work if it wasn't for the Khan thing... These people want a success story. Especially once the decision to start the arrests is made. (I will be looking at page A13 closely for a change of the official story on this decision) And yeah terror is great for funding but thats so not what this is about! Really, honestly! Though the plot will be mentioned in the next round of budget debates.

On the other hand will no politician allow for opponents to benefit from the news. This drive no doubt includes asking (If needed) home office and DHS officials to leak the right facts and present the right story. Press conferences and TV appearances are no doubt scheduled by a joined white house/GOP team. Neither the intelligence bureaucrats nor the political operatives have any use for a reassuring, comforting press conferences. In the US the TV pundits take it from there.

And you can not discuss this issue without noting the role of the TV news. Many hours were filled with liquid explosives talk. I bet the ratings on that were great! (And look at the cost side: a shot of a soda bottle, a wire service shot of a busy airport and some talking heads.... it costs less than reality TV ;-) )

WTF is going on here?
Its iirc uncommon for you to raise your voice like that ;-) Its more common for you to write about graphs... I have been looking for an updated version of this graph, annotated with an explanation of the events that led to the terror alert.

Two explanations I know. In one case was the one involving financial buildings in New York. Here there were photo's of these buildings on the laptop of Mohammed nadeem noor khan. These photo's were many years old* so expecting an attack the day after you capture the guy, but not the day after that..... might be a useless overreaction.
*) and IIRC there was this rather unfortunate mistake about how old the pictures were, a mistake only the intel bureaucrats could make, rove`s side presumably didn't have access to the laptop.

In another case involving tunnels in new York someone got caught by the immigration services. I believe this was in Europe. And then he claimed the people who ratted him out as an illegal were terrorist with plots on tunnels.

And there also was the thing with the Al Jazeera ticker....

But maybe these small stories buried away in the newspaper are just a cover to protect a more serious source, like SIGINT or non torture interrogation.

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