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Tilting at Windmills

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September 12, 2006
By: Kevin Drum

RHODE ISLAND....Polls are about to close in Rhode Island, right? I figure Lincoln Chafee is going to pull out a close victory. Odds, anyone?

Results here, when they appear.

UPDATE: Yep, Chafee won. Bummer.

Kevin Drum 8:07 PM Permalink | Trackbacks | Comments (74)

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Comments

I think Laffey will pull this one out. Sure, republican turnout this election cycle will probably be weak, but I think it'll be weakest amongst moderate Repubs. And that's who Chafee caters to. It will be a sqeaker either way.

Posted by: CKT on September 12, 2006 at 8:13 PM | PERMALINK

Every looks like he's going to lose just barely. But my gut says that he's going to squeek by...

I'm interested to see how "truthy" I can be...

Posted by: Ernst on September 12, 2006 at 8:16 PM | PERMALINK

I think Laffey wins relatively convincingly, approx. 5 points.

Posted by: dj moonbat on September 12, 2006 at 8:16 PM | PERMALINK

I am praying for Grover Norquist even as I type ...

Laffey wins it and we put one in the pocket for the Dems, gratis.

But I'd go with Kevin as the betting man I ordinarily am not. I think the GOP GOTV machine will scoop up enough moderates; they certainly seem like they've got enough artillery up there.

Bob

Posted by: rmck1 on September 12, 2006 at 8:22 PM | PERMALINK

Laffey by 6.43543 points.

Posted by: treetop on September 12, 2006 at 8:23 PM | PERMALINK

Actually, I think Laffey is going to be just as much trouble as chafee. Chafee is a bad campaigner, an incumbant in a time thats bad, And is a moderate in partisan grass root times. Laffey is a far more energetic campaigner and the wealth of the club for growth behind him. I wouldn't count him out beforehand.

Lets be careful out there...

Posted by: Ernst on September 12, 2006 at 8:40 PM | PERMALINK

So, if LC loses, will the GOP run him as an Independent? ;)

Posted by: Disputo on September 12, 2006 at 8:52 PM | PERMALINK

Actually, I think Laffey is going to be just as much trouble as chafee. Chafee is a bad campaigner, an incumbant in a time thats bad, And is a moderate in partisan grass root times. Laffey is a far more energetic campaigner and the wealth of the club for growth behind him. I wouldn't count him out beforehand.

I agree with you Ernst. Liberals just don't get it if they think Laffey is going to be pushover. Laffey is very popular in Rhode Island because he's a populist maverick who is willing to buck the party line. Both Whitehouse and Chafee are seen as idealogues who consistently follow the leftist ideology. I predict Laffey will win the primary handily. He will then win the 2006 election against Whitehouse in a Republican tidalwave in the 2006 elections.

Posted by: Al on September 12, 2006 at 8:54 PM | PERMALINK

He will then win the 2006 election against Whitehouse in a Republican tidalwave in the 2006 elections.

Al-bot's phrasing subroutine needs some adjustment.

Posted by: Disputo on September 12, 2006 at 8:56 PM | PERMALINK

Hey, Al, I've been having trouble finding a good weed connection, and clearly you are not. Could you help me out?

Posted by: dj moonbat on September 12, 2006 at 8:57 PM | PERMALINK

I disagree with you Ernst. Conservatives just don't get it if they think Laffey isn't going to be pushover. Laffey isn't very popular in Rhode Island because he isn't a populist maverick who is willing to buck the party line. Both Whitehouse and Chafee aren't seen as idealogues as they never follow the leftist ideology. I predict Laffey will barely win the primary. He will then lose the 2006 election against Whitehouse in a Democrat tidalwave in the 2006 elections.

Posted by: T.R. Elliott on September 12, 2006 at 8:58 PM | PERMALINK

For the first time posting here -- I hope Al is right.

For the primary, at least.

It would be so rewarding to watch Grover *and* Liddy holding hands on the deck of the Titanic this November.

Why just crush the GOP when you can throw a 527 on the bonfire as well?

Bob

Posted by: rmck1 on September 12, 2006 at 9:13 PM | PERMALINK

I agree with you Ernst. Liberals just don't get it if they think Laffey is going to be pushover. Laffey is very popular in Rhode Island because he's a populist maverick who is willing to buck the party line.

Haven't followed this race closely, but I tend to agree with Al.

As much as I detest the nativist approach of the right-wing these days, I'd guess a muscular anti-immigrant (spun as anti "illegal" immgrant) campaign on the part of Laffey could make hay among Rhode Island's electorate, which has a traditionalist "Reagan Democrat" Catholic twinge. This method would provide a means of running as a populist conservative, but still allow the candidate to run essentially in opposition to Bush, who is widely perceived as being a "softie" on the immigration issue among the Buchananite crowd (I regard the president's realistic approach on immigration as one of the few redeeming features of an increasingly dismal tenure, but that's another story).

Posted by: New England Conservative on September 12, 2006 at 9:21 PM | PERMALINK

The link to the RI election results wont update. It is stuck at 732 EST. Shucks!

Posted by: troglodyte on September 12, 2006 at 9:21 PM | PERMALINK

Club for Growth is backing crackpot motherfuckers all over the country. They don't fucking quit. Sharon Angle tried suing because she lost the GOP primary to Dean Heller here in Nevada but eventually had it stuffed in her ass. The damned near beat Spector last cycle in Pa. These fuckers are dangerous bastards.

Posted by: angryspittle on September 12, 2006 at 9:25 PM | PERMALINK

here is a link that seems to work, freom the Providence RI TV station:

http://wpri.conversent.net/election.html

The Chafee/Laffey race is at the bottom

Posted by: troglodyte on September 12, 2006 at 9:27 PM | PERMALINK

New England Conservative:

Sounds to me though (and correct me if I'm wrong) that you might *personally* favor more a Linc Chafee-style GOP opposition to Bush, no?

Bob

Posted by: rmck1 on September 12, 2006 at 9:32 PM | PERMALINK

with more than a third of the vote in, Chafee is ahead with 53% OF VOTE. Doesnt look like a Lamont-like moment.

Posted by: troglodyte on September 12, 2006 at 9:50 PM | PERMALINK

Folks, there's a reason the RSCC has put so much money in this race and others where right-wingers are putting up tough primaries: They'll get trounced and Dems won't have to do much campaigning. I doubt Whitehouse will win by 30 points against Laffey, but he'll win by 10 at least. And that's with minimal campaigning.

Posted by: gq on September 12, 2006 at 9:50 PM | PERMALINK

Sounds to me though (and correct me if I'm wrong) that you might *personally* favor a lapdance from Liddy Dole, no?

Bob

ps: gawd, I sure would. Ain't been laidin like forever and a day

Posted by: rmck1's dreams on September 12, 2006 at 9:58 PM | PERMALINK

I guess the direct spoofing approach is proving less fruitful than you had anticipated, eh?

Bob

Posted by: rmck1 on September 12, 2006 at 10:10 PM | PERMALINK

Here is the best site for primary results.
http://wpri.conversent.net/election.html
US Senate
Republican
73% of 515 Reporting
LINCOLN CHAFEE 24,953 54%
STEPHEN LAFFEY 21,576 46%

Posted by: Provident Masochist on September 12, 2006 at 10:24 PM | PERMALINK

At 10:20PM
US Senate Republican
78% of 515 Reporting
LINCOLN CHAFEE 26,307 54%
STEPHEN LAFFEY 22,719 46%

Posted by: Provident Masochist on September 12, 2006 at 10:28 PM | PERMALINK

At 10:20PM
US Senate Republican
78% of 515 Reporting
LINCOLN CHAFEE 26,307 54%
STEPHEN LAFFEY 22,719 46%

Posted by: Karamat on September 12, 2006 at 10:29 PM | PERMALINK

It looks like the snake has pulled off a victory. It is a shame that the betrayer of Bush was rewarded by him.
At 10:25PM
US Senate Republican
80% of 515 Reporting
LINCOLN CHAFEE 27,155 54%
STEPHEN LAFFEY 23,163 46%

Posted by: Provident Masochist on September 12, 2006 at 10:33 PM | PERMALINK

Sheldon Whitehouse, the Democratic nominee will have his work cut out for him. Let us all remember that we all have a lot of work to do prior to November 7. Are you up to the task? Look at the mirror and ask the question - "Are u patriotic enough to deny Bush bin Laden a victory in November?
At 10:31PM
US Senate, Republican
81% of 515 Reporting
LINCOLN CHAFEE 27,528 54%
STEPHEN LAFFEY 23,535 46%

Posted by: Provident Masochist on September 12, 2006 at 10:38 PM | PERMALINK

My guess is we're going to find out that Rhode Island Republicans are smarter than their GE counterparts, or at least the rich ones.

The fact that well-educated white collar suburban Independents in blue states can be wooed by Mr. Chafee's less abrasive tone to vote for a man that stole away their bankrutpcy protection and would have stolen away their childrens' Social Security benefits if given the slightest chance doesn't give one great hope for American democracy.

Maybe only MENSA-eligible Americans should be given the vote after all, or does IQ only matter when we're talking about poor, malnourished black people?

Posted by: Linus on September 12, 2006 at 10:39 PM | PERMALINK

The evil that Bush and Cheney have done will endure long after the bastards are dead and gone. Their Satanic and anti-American adminstration gave Osama everything that the terrorist asked for. He has made us into a bunch of wimps quivering at the knees.

At 10:35PM
US Senate, Republican
84% of 515 Reporting
LINCOLN CHAFEE 27,899 54%
STEPHEN LAFFEY 23,899 46%

Posted by: Provident Masochist on September 12, 2006 at 10:43 PM | PERMALINK

Interestingly, Sheldon Whitehouse, the Democratic nominee seems to have got more votes than Chafee and Laffey combined.

At 10:40PM
US Senate, Republican
90% of 515 Reporting
LINCOLN CHAFEE 29,433 54%
STEPHEN LAFFEY 25,353 46%

US Senate, Democrat
75% of 515 Reporting
SHELDON WHITEHOUSE 48,516 82%
CHRISTOPHER YOUNG 6,321 11%
CARL SHEELER 4,405 7%

Posted by: Provident Masochist on September 12, 2006 at 10:49 PM | PERMALINK

At 10:45PM
US Senate, Republican
91% of 515 Reporting
LINCOLN CHAFEE 29,650 54%
STEPHEN LAFFEY 25,630 46%

US Senate, Democrat
90% of 515 Reporting
SHELDON WHITEHOUSE 58,251 82%
CHRISTOPHER YOUNG 7,577 11%
CARL SHEELER 5,561 8%

Posted by: Provident Masochist on September 12, 2006 at 10:54 PM | PERMALINK

At 10:50PM:
US Senate, Republican
91% of 515 Reporting
LINCOLN CHAFEE 29,650 54%
STEPHEN LAFFEY 25,630 46%

US Senate, Democrat
90% of 515 Reporting
SHELDON WHITEHOUSE 58,251 82%
CHRISTOPHER YOUNG 7,577 11%
CARL SHEELER 5,561 8%

Posted by: Provident Masochist on September 12, 2006 at 11:00 PM | PERMALINK

Color me naive, but why do poor people in Rhode Island have to go to church to get consumer counseling about owning a home.

I bring this up not only because the reelection of Senator Chafee (who seems to have had something significant to do with this initiative) is more or less a done deal, but because it occurs to me that the founders of that once-great colony were the architects of the separation of church and state.

(PS Faith-based funding may be inevitable, but so is death.)

Posted by: Linus on September 12, 2006 at 11:03 PM | PERMALINK

Sounds to me though (and correct me if I'm wrong) that you might *personally* favor more a Linc Chafee-style GOP opposition to Bush, no?

I think Chafee seems like a decent fellow -- he's a grownup, at least, and he's not certifiably insane like this crew in power now. I haven't followed his career closely, though. I do regard it as desirable to mainain a base of sanity in the GOP, since two party rule is better than one party rule, and when the inevitable day arrives when the Democrats take power back (I personally hope they take the House this November) the country will need an opposition to keep the ruling party honest. I say "inevitable" in the fervant hope that the system has not been totally undermined by now. I regard the is a non-impossibility.

Posted by: New England Conservative on September 12, 2006 at 11:03 PM | PERMALINK

At 10:55PM:
US Senate, Republican
93% of 515 Reporting
LINCOLN CHAFEE 30,854 54%
STEPHEN LAFFEY 26,448 46%

US Senate, Democrat
93% of 515 Reporting
SHELDON WHITEHOUSE 61,859 82%
CHRISTOPHER YOUNG 8,007 11%
CARL SHEELER 5,947 8%

Posted by: Provident Masochist on September 12, 2006 at 11:04 PM | PERMALINK

Anyone want to lay odds on Laffey, with the Club for Growth's support, running as a Party of One?

Ah, but to dream...Wonder how Laffey's negative campaigning against Chaffee is going to affect 'Publican voter turnout in Rhode Island?

Posted by: grape_crush on September 12, 2006 at 11:08 PM | PERMALINK

Interestingly, Sheldon Whitehouse, the Democratic nominee seems to have got more votes than Chafee and Laffey combined.

I don't know as I'd call it interesting. "Expected" would be the adjective I'd use. Rhode Island is one of the most heavily Democratic states in the union, and the Dems must surely possess a healthy advantage in party registration. Unless, of course, RI has an open primary system -- then I guess I'd agree with you, as the GOP primary has been by far the hotter contest. If it is an open primary, the Dems ought to have entered it en masse to choose the winger.

Posted by: New England Conservative on September 12, 2006 at 11:08 PM | PERMALINK

Is this post a moderate's ploy to manipulate Leftists to root for a moderate Republican?

Posted by: Hostile on September 12, 2006 at 11:08 PM | PERMALINK

Linus:

Poor Anne Hutchinson and all those antinomian witch-shelterers and asylum-offerers for flee-ers of Masshole persecution dancing decidedly un-pious jigs in their graves ...

Bob

Posted by: rmck1 on September 12, 2006 at 11:09 PM | PERMALINK

If Lincoln loses, will he join the Sore Loserman Party?

Posted by: craigie on September 12, 2006 at 11:10 PM | PERMALINK

I don't know that it was all that expected, NEC. After all, Whitehouse was clearly going to take his primary and there just wasn't that much at stake. The Republican primary was where all the action was. Still, you are correct about the blueness of Rhode Island.

Posted by: PaulB on September 12, 2006 at 11:10 PM | PERMALINK

Hostile:

No. Most of us were rooting for the conservative, Club For Growth Republican :)

Because he'd be easily trounced by the Democrat in the general election.

Bob

Posted by: rmck1 on September 12, 2006 at 11:11 PM | PERMALINK

At 11 PM:
US Senate, Republican
97% of 515 Reporting
LINCOLN CHAFEE 33,570 53%
STEPHEN LAFFEY 29,189 47%

US Senate, Democrat
97% of 515 Reporting
SHELDON WHITEHOUSE 63,624 82%
CHRISTOPHER YOUNG 8,198 11%
CARL SHEELER 6,115 8%

Posted by: Provident Masochist on September 12, 2006 at 11:11 PM | PERMALINK

,b.dj moonbat "Hey, Al, I've been having trouble finding a good weed connection, and clearly you are not. Could you help me out?"

While some good herb does wonders for one's mood, glaucoma, and appetite, nevertheless it is also illegal, and The Al-bot is nothing if not a law-abiding citizen.

If The Al-bot gets hammered, it is probably with a delightfully potent concoction made of equal parts Mogen David and Colt 45.

Posted by: Donald from Hawaii on September 12, 2006 at 11:12 PM | PERMALINK

Damn, it's not even close!

I can't win even when I support the Conservalooney candidate - or is the fact that the hard right crackpot is going down hard, a bellweather for November?

Posted by: craigie on September 12, 2006 at 11:12 PM | PERMALINK

"If Lincoln loses, will he join the Sore Loserman Party?"

Doubtful. A better question: what will those who voted for him do in the fall? Vote for Chafee as the lesser of two evils? Or just stay home?

Posted by: PaulB on September 12, 2006 at 11:14 PM | PERMALINK

Paul:

I think some wounded ego here needs to be stroked into an independent run :)

If Laffey pulled a Lieberman to split off the looneys, Whitehouse would trounce ol' Lincoln in a walk.

Bob

Posted by: rmck1 on September 12, 2006 at 11:18 PM | PERMALINK

craigie: "Damn, it's not even close!"

Which proves once again that Looney Tunes makes a much better cartoon than a candidate for public office.

Posted by: Donald from Hawaii on September 12, 2006 at 11:18 PM | PERMALINK

PaulB: "[W]hat will those who voted for [Laffey] do in the fall? Vote for Chafee as the lesser of two evils? Or just stay home?"

I thought the whole point of Laffey's campaign was to implore Rhode Island Republicans to not merely settle for what they thought was the lesser of two evils, but to take a walk on the wild side and vote instead for the real deal.

Posted by: Donald from Hawaii on September 12, 2006 at 11:28 PM | PERMALINK

What's wrong with the GOP in RI? Don't they realize that terists are tryin' to kill their families?

Posted by: craigie on September 12, 2006 at 11:31 PM | PERMALINK

"Poor Anne Hutchinson and all those antinomian witch-shelterers and asylum-offerers for flee-ers of Masshole persecution dancing decidedly un-pious jigs in their graves ..."

I just drank a toast to Dr. Clark, who by coincidence is my 9th great-uncle. Mr. Williams gets a double shot.

Posted by: Linus on September 12, 2006 at 11:31 PM | PERMALINK

Which proves once again that Looney Tunes makes a much better cartoon than a candidate for public office.

Tell you what - if the Democratic candidate in '04 had been Bugs Bunny, I woulda voted for the rabbit over Shrub, no contest. Though Bush as Yosemite Sam seems like a natural. Still, I pick the wabbit.

Posted by: craigie on September 12, 2006 at 11:32 PM | PERMALINK

If I may interrupt this topical conversation (I'm with craigie--DAMN!) for just a moment with a totally OT comment while Donald's here, I'd like to recount my dream of last night, in which I fell into the Alawai Canal and got attacked by flesh-eating bacteria like that guy a few months ago. Donald, what does it all mean!?! Did they ever figure out what happened to that guy?

Posted by: shortstop on September 12, 2006 at 11:33 PM | PERMALINK

And why are we supposed to care about Chafee again? Because he is only a half-bad Republican instead of an all-bad, disgustingly corrupt, perverted Republican like Bush and Co.?

Fuck him! I hope he gets his head torn off and handed to him by the Democratic candidate, who then proceeds to shit down his neck.

Posted by: The Liberal Avenger on September 12, 2006 at 11:35 PM | PERMALINK

Wow, when you go OT, you really go out there!

Posted by: craigie on September 12, 2006 at 11:36 PM | PERMALINK

I see Bush more as Deputy Dawg.

And what The Liberal Avenger said.

Posted by: shortstop on September 12, 2006 at 11:37 PM | PERMALINK

This should be a real boon for Democrats in more purplish states, if they play it right. imagine the push polling in heavily Republican districts:
"Does the fact that the Republican leadership spent millions of dollars supporting a pro-abortion incumbent against a pro-life primary challenger this year make you more or likely to vote for the Republican candidate for Senate?"
Anonymous flyers covering windshields at evangelical megachurches asking why the Republican party supported a pro-baby-murder RINO over a true conservative, talk radio callers complaining about being used and ignored by washington-- this could be just the thing to suck the wind out of the far-right's sails.

Posted by: Dave Pooser on September 12, 2006 at 11:50 PM | PERMALINK

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Posted by: mms on September 13, 2006 at 12:09 AM | PERMALINK

Good for Chafee. I'll take politicans with something of a grasp on reality any day of the week, be they Republican or Democrat. More guys like Chafee and Democrats would have a lot less to bitch about.

Posted by: Nathan64 on September 13, 2006 at 1:38 AM | PERMALINK

Nathan64:

No, I'm not a big Chafee fan. He's not excessively courageous or principled; the GOP just lets him get away with certain high-profile symbolic votes because they know how blue his state is. Otherwise, they have him by the shawt curlies every bit a tightly as they do Sphincter. Gods forbid he had an important committe chairmanship, or they'd start extracting blood out of him like Sphincter, too.

Guys like Lindsey Graham or Chuck Hagel are more effective at opposing the GOP where it really counts -- not that they always do. But they've both got bigger sets than that inbred fellow from New England.

Bob

Posted by: rmck1 on September 13, 2006 at 1:46 AM | PERMALINK

I'm not a huge fan of Chaffe either but he does strike me as a moderate politican who looks a lot what Republicans were supposed to be when I was coming up. Did he wait too long to go after Bolton and was their too much calculation in his actions, you bet there were. Not to say I would not support his Democratic candidate if I lived there but I can think of much worse things than a Democrat trying to get some bi-partisan legislation through the Senate and having to deal Lincoln CHafee.

Posted by: Nathan64 on September 13, 2006 at 2:51 AM | PERMALINK

It seems that many Republicans will stay away when the choice is between two Commie pinko appeasers.

Posted by: bob h on September 13, 2006 at 7:13 AM | PERMALINK

I really thought that Laffey had a chance at winning. I voted for him.

In Rhode Island, if you are an "unaffiliated" voter -- you can choose whether to vote in the Republican or Democrat primary. I voted in the Republican primary and pulled the lever for Laffey, although I will certainly be voting for Sheldon Whitehouse in November.

Interesting also, my sister and her husband are Republicans -- really don't like Chafee and would have preferred Laffey -- but voted for Chafee knowing that Laffey would never have a chance against Whitehouse in the general election.

Posted by: JAC on September 13, 2006 at 7:39 AM | PERMALINK

BUMMER, huh? Well, with the RNC poised to outspend the Dems 5 to 1 in the upcoming election get ready for the onslaught of stories setting up the HUGE REPUBLICAN COMEBACK and WIN in November! I marvel of modern politics...an underdog story like never before...continuing the BEST GOVERNMENT MONEY CAN BUY for lucky, lucky AMERICA...and making sure that the paid for media can continue to SPIN and DISSEMBLE as they have done for the past decade!

GET YOUR EYES OPEN AND GET OUT AND VOTE THE SUCKERS OUT!!!!

Posted by: Dancer on September 13, 2006 at 8:58 AM | PERMALINK

As an ex-Rhode Islander I was really torn in the lead-up to yesterday's primary. Lincoln Chafee's voting record (in support of federally-funded stem cell research, against ANWR drilling, against a constitutional amendment on same-sex marriage, against a constitutional ban on flag desecration, against prioritizing debt reduction below tax cuts, against the Alito nomination, against a second G.W. Bush term and, most especially against the invasion of Iraq) is one that I wish that a lot of Congressional Democrats might be able to boast of. Beyond that, he's a decent, thoughtful, non-ideologue who's shown both a willingness to display independent thinking and bi-partisan cooperation. So I'm pleased to see that he trounced Laffey, who's exactly the sort of nut-job the national Republican party would have loved to see in the Senate, if only they thought he had a prayer of winning in November.

As it appears now, however, the Chaffee-Whitehouse race will be one of the key contests in determining whether the Democrats can re-take the Senate in November. If there's the slightest chance that a Whitehouse (Sheldon, that is) victory can lead to the accomplishment of that goal, or even contribute to a 50-50 balance, then I'll probably bite my lip and vote for Whitehouse. Otherwise, I'm crossing over and supporting Chaffee.

Posted by: Ex-Pat on September 13, 2006 at 9:43 AM | PERMALINK

I don't consider Chaffee a shoo-in come November. It's kind of a pity, because Chaffee doesn't stink as bad as most Republicans, and he's bucked Bush on some issued even some Democratic senators have rolled over for. But the Deomcrats should pull out all the stops to unseat him.

I hope the message the Republicans get, if Chaffee loses, is that supporting Bush at all is electoral poison, thus making him the lamest of lame ducks. We'll see.

Posted by: Gregory on September 13, 2006 at 10:22 AM | PERMALINK

As it appears now, however, the Chaffee-Whitehouse race will be one of the key contests in determining whether the Democrats can re-take the Senate in November.

Hmmmm, I don't know that I agree with that. Chafee has a far better chance of reelection than many of his more typical Republican compadres outside of rabidly red states. I'm not sure a moderate Republican is really the bellwether for races in which a Dem is facing off against a more standard (today's standards, that is) Republican.

Posted by: shortstop on September 13, 2006 at 11:05 AM | PERMALINK

shortstop--
I wasn't hypothesizing as to whether or not Chaffee would win the general election in November, although, against a proven poor campaigner like Whitehouse and given Rhode Island's iconoclastic voting history and the general goodwill that attached to the Chaffee neme there, I think that it could be very close race. I also think a lot of RI voters will be torn between party loyalty and the idea of returning a decent, if imperfect Republican to the Senate.

I guess all I'm saying is that it's a shame of sorts that the choice will be between casting a vote against a relatively stand-up guy like Linc and voting for a puffball like Whitehouse just to try to give the Senate back to the Democrats.

Posted by: Ex-Pat on September 13, 2006 at 11:38 AM | PERMALINK

P.S. to Al--
"I predict Laffey will win the primary handily. He will then win the 2006 election against Whitehouse in a Republican tidalwave in the 2006 elections."

Nice prognosticating, Pal. As usual, taking whatever position is opposite yours is where the smart money ought to go every time.

Posted by: Ex-Pat on September 13, 2006 at 11:43 AM | PERMALINK

I know you weren't calling the November race, Ex-Pat, and I do agree that the situation is a shame. I just meant that RI's situation, with Chafee far more moderate than most of his fellows, isn't really typical, and so I don't think it will be representative of other races in which incumbent Republicans are in jeopardy.

Having said that, I'm not sanguiine about our hopes for retaking either house. But I am hopeful that some of the palpable disgust most Americans are feeling for the GOP will translate at the polls, despite the incumbent advantage, gerrymandering and a few other serious obstacles.

Posted by: shortstop on September 13, 2006 at 12:05 PM | PERMALINK

Further proof that Rhode Island isn't Mississippi.

Posted by: dr sardonicus on September 13, 2006 at 12:23 PM | PERMALINK

I don't consider Chaffee a shoo-in come November. It's kind of a pity, because Chaffee doesn't stink as bad as most Republicans

Also, it's a pity to flush the toilet when you've deposited a particularly nice trud.

Posted by: calling all toasters on September 13, 2006 at 1:04 PM | PERMALINK

Why were Dems so dumb enough to cross over to vote for Chafee? Instead, they should have voted to cross over to vote for Laffey, guaranteeing a Whitehouse win in November.

Posted by: SocraticGadfly on September 13, 2006 at 1:53 PM | PERMALINK

SocraticGadfly:

1) Voters don't think that strategically.

2) Had Laffey won, the GOP and Club For Growth would have mounted a truly fierce negative campaign that doubtless would have been closer than everybody expects, and that kind of trauma wasn't appealing to many Democrats.

3) People just like Chafee. I know I felt kinda strongly for Millie Fenwick (a very Chafee-like Repub) when I voted for her over Frank Lautenberg the first time he ran.

Bob

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