Editore"s Note
Tilting at Windmills

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October 10, 2006
By: Kevin Drum

REPUBLICAN MELTDOWN UPDATE....Over at Showdown '06, Ruy Teixeira notes that in four polls released Monday the average Democratic lead in the generic congressional race is a mind-boggling 17 percentage points. Structural changes over the past couple of decades mean that this still isn't likely to create a victory the size of 1994, but if this news energizes the Democratic ground operation as it should it could still produce the second biggest congressional rout since the Reagan era.

Mark Blumenthal also summarizes the poll results today, and concludes that they look equally grim for Republicans whether you look at registered voters or likely voters. There's just no good news for the GOP anywhere.

And here's a thought: if the Republican Party does continue its ongoing implosion, it's going to make Howard Dean look pretty smart, isn't it? It'll mean that Democrats win a historic victory this year and have made two year's worth of progress on improving their state organizations for 2008.

Sure, some of that is just luck. Neither Dean nor anyone else predicted this year's Republican meltdown. But you know what they say: luck favors the well prepared.

Kevin Drum 8:40 PM Permalink | Trackbacks | Comments (110)
 
Comments

Apparently, luck favors the party that's gay-baiting.

"OMG, REPUBLICANS KNEW FOLEY WAS TEH GHEY!!! VOTE DEMOCRAT!!".

Democrats have upped hating gays, and deemphasized their tactic of preemptive surrendering to terrorists, grave-robbing, and killing babies. In the face of that, of course they look good.

Posted by: American Hawk on October 10, 2006 at 8:44 PM | PERMALINK

And here's a thought: if the Republican Party does continue its ongoing implosion -KD


You mean imploding like this!

O'Reilly: Like Iran, "the reason North Korea is causing trouble is that it wants to influence the November election"

Gee, too bad they don't have a Korean Osama Bin Laden to help with the elections eh?

Posted by: Mach Tuck on October 10, 2006 at 8:45 PM | PERMALINK

The Republican meltdown is long overdue and they have it coming but just like I expected their sleaze to catch up with them I also expect Democrats to be true to form and snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.

If this really does turn out to be a rout then I'll be pleasantly surprised.

Posted by: TangoMan on October 10, 2006 at 8:46 PM | PERMALINK

I am a betting man. Anybody want to gamble on the results of this election? I'll lay money on the republicans keeping both houses. Any takers?

Posted by: American Hawk on October 10, 2006 at 8:48 PM | PERMALINK

oh you silly faux troll, american hawk.

Posted by: mudwall jackson on October 10, 2006 at 8:50 PM | PERMALINK

I am a betting man. Anybody want to gamble on the results of this election? I'll lay money on the republicans keeping both houses. Any takers?

I double AH's bet and also predict Republicans keep both houses! Anyone willing to bet against me?

Posted by: Al on October 10, 2006 at 8:52 PM | PERMALINK

what, are the losers going to threaten to hold their breath til they turn red, er blue unless the dems let them keep their seats?

Posted by: mudwall jackson on October 10, 2006 at 8:54 PM | PERMALINK

Democrats have upped *hating gays and deemphasized their tactic of preemptive surrendering to terrorists, grave-robbing, and killing babies. In the face of that, of course they look good. -Chicken Hawk

Bwahahahhaa. Lemme see Dick Cheneys daughter wasn't allowed on the stage and the neo-cons have been wanting to ban gay marriage.
BTW how is that gay guy Foley working for ya?
Not so good huh?

Surrendering to terrorists. I guess you mean those FOX reporters that switched over to Islamacism?
Maybe your talking about that conservative Jame Baker who is now talking up alternatives to 'cut and run' and 'stay the course' Maybe you mena Olympia Snowe who now wants to 'cut and run', or was that Bush Sr. the wimp that cut and ran from Iraq?
Maybe you mean 'cut and run' Reagan?

Graverobbers, bwahahahha!, I think you mean the skull and bones society and the bush who dug up geronimos skull in fort sill Oklahoma?

Kiling Babies, gee how many Babies has bush killed in Iraq? I have never killed a baby, Bush has killed enough for tens of thousands of 'liberals'
Besides ChickenHawk, you know as well as I do that conservatives only care about a baby from the time of conception to the time of birth, after that they are, too the GOP, collateral damage.

Yeh your batting a thousand Chicken Hawk

Posted by: Mach Tuck on October 10, 2006 at 8:55 PM | PERMALINK

Neither Dean nor anyone else predicted this year's Republican meltdown.

How long can one sustain an effort based on claiming things are better than they are? How long can you use publicity to make problems look solved instead of thought and work to solve problems? How long can corruption run rampant before it gets too obvious?

Posted by: Repack Rider on October 10, 2006 at 8:57 PM | PERMALINK

Incidentally:

KEVIN DRUM says:

But you know what they say: luck favors the well prepared

http://www.google.com/search?q=%22luck+favors+the+well+prepared%22&start=0&ie=utf-8&oe=utf-8&client=firefox-a&rls=org.mozilla:en-US:official

Results 1 - 10 of about 171 for "luck favors the well prepared"

Apparently, they don't say that. Thanks Kevin.

Posted by: American Hawk on October 10, 2006 at 8:58 PM | PERMALINK

I am a betting man. Anybody want to gamble on the results of this election? I'll lay money on the republicans keeping both houses. Any takers?
Posted by: American Hawk

Not me, I want you idiots to stay in office so you can clean up the feckin mess you made.
[which of course wont happen]

I bet the Republicans can't clean up their mess. How about that?

Posted by: Mach Tuck on October 10, 2006 at 8:59 PM | PERMALINK

Kevin,
I think the better-fit phrase/truism: Luck is the residue of hard work. In this case, it's probably more karma than luck if the Dems win either house.

But let's not just count our hatched eggs yet, either. In their most desperate hour, what won't Bush/Rove do? Four weeks is not a whole lifetime in politics, but it's pretty damn close. And it can all be won or lost by who gets the vote out - as we witnessed last time.

I still haven't made my mind up on Dean. We'll see - too soon to tell.

Posted by: MaxGowan on October 10, 2006 at 9:02 PM | PERMALINK

Now the biggest risk is too many Democratic party voters staying home because they think the lead is so large their vote isn't needed. Can happen.

Posted by: Alan on October 10, 2006 at 9:02 PM | PERMALINK

Al and AH,

Bet on the outcome?

Are you fucking crazy?

We know you fuckers count the votes.

Posted by: angryspittle on October 10, 2006 at 9:04 PM | PERMALINK

I am a betting man. Anybody want to gamble on the results of this election? I'll lay money on the republicans keeping both houses. Any takers?

I double AH's bet and also predict Republicans keep both houses! Anyone willing to bet against me?

Your betting that the war mongers, and the corrupt bunch of sexual predators stay in power and create more messes so you can win?
And you would actually vote for this?

You guys would destroy America, let Bush rip up the constitution, rendition and torture your ass so you can win?

Aren't you conservatives aware that they are screwing you?

Bwhahahaaaaa!!


Consider one memo highlighted in a Capitol Hill hearing Wednesday that Scanlon, a former aide to Rep. Tom DeLay, R-Texas, sent the Coushatta Tribe of Louisiana to describe his strategy for protecting the tribe's gambling business. In plain terms, Scanlon confessed the source code of recent Republican electoral victories: Target religious conservatives, distract everyone else, and then railroad through complex initiatives.

The brilliance of this strategy was twofold: Not only would most voters not know about an initiative to protect Coushatta gambling revenues, but religious "wackos" could be tricked into supporting gambling at the Coushatta casino even as they thought they were opposing it.

Yeh your winning a game for the neo-liberals!!

LMAO!!


Posted by: Mach Tuck on October 10, 2006 at 9:05 PM | PERMALINK

Now the biggest risk is too many Democratic party voters staying home because they think the lead is so large their vote isn't needed. Can happen
===============================
Naw, the GrOPers will make all the conservatives stay home because the conservatives are too digusted to vote for the pedophile pedantic party of phallic worshippers.

maybe this will be the lowest vote turnout ever?

Posted by: Mach Tuck on October 10, 2006 at 9:10 PM | PERMALINK

Apparently, they don't say that. Thanks Kevin.
Posted by: American Hawk

That was SOOOOOO lame I am gonna go, sheeesh.

Kevin could at least get some decent trolls?

Thanks Bud!

Posted by: Mach Tuck on October 10, 2006 at 9:14 PM | PERMALINK

I believe the exact quote is: "Fortune favors the prepared mind."

Louis Pasteur

Posted by: The Dark Avenger on October 10, 2006 at 9:14 PM | PERMALINK

I bet the Republicans can't clean up their mess.

Bwahahahaha! Republicans don't clean up. They only know how to screw things beyond repair.

Republicans are the worst political party of the 21st century including the GOP numbskulls on this thread.

Posted by: GOP defector on October 10, 2006 at 9:16 PM | PERMALINK

Democrats have upped hating gays, and deemphasized their tactic of preemptive surrendering to terrorists, grave-robbing, and killing babies. In the face of that, of course they look good.
Posted by: American Hawk on October 10, 2006 at 8:44 PM | PERMALINK

Keep at it American Hawk!

Those gays are bound to forget about 2004, and come flocking back to the Republican Party in droves - terrified of those evil Gay Baiting Democrats!

Posted by: osama_been_forgotten on October 10, 2006 at 9:28 PM | PERMALINK

I bet the Republicans can't clean up their mess. How about that?
Posted by: Mach Tuck on October 10, 2006 at 8:59 PM | PERMALINK

Can't?
More like won't.
They're pigs, after all, and the only thing they enjoy more than wallowing in their own filth, is forcing others to wallow in their filth while they watch.

Posted by: osama_been_forgotten on October 10, 2006 at 9:33 PM | PERMALINK

When the Republicans lose, American Hawk and Al have to dress up in lingerie and kiss each other in front of the U.S. Capitol.

Posted by: Zeno on October 10, 2006 at 9:37 PM | PERMALINK

Where is the democratic attack? Where is the ideology? Where is the Iraq plan? Where is the nuclear-non proliferation program?

Do nothing democrats. Sitting on thier haunches is a bad idea.

Here's my plan - simple.

"Citizenship" This is how you define the democratic agenda.

Citizenship is the recognition that we all have a responsibility to participate in our government and our institutions. Government is necessary to moderate capital and special interests. It also should protect capital and special interests. The existence of government is not in debate if you are a democrat. The role of government is the subject of constant debate. For example the debate between states and federalism.

Citizenship has no religious or ideological external agendas. It is the work of government that concerns it - allowing people to progress and live together in relative peace.

Citizenship has a natural extension in foriegn policy. The US is a citizen of the world. It creates consensus and strives for respect. As a world leader it propounds an international covenant on nuclear arms and pursues it. Rather than making funny deals here and there.

Citizenship is big-tent. It asks for responsible behavior and defines the government's participation in life. Its the kind of position the better democrats have always advanced. Its a nice fit for them and it is different from the republican position.

There, now the democrats have a platform. I offer it to them fee of charge as an expression of my duty as a citizen.

Posted by: exclab on October 10, 2006 at 9:38 PM | PERMALINK

I read on the Huffington Post that the Eisenhower battle group just sailed for the Gulf. Apparently it left a month early. If it simply relieves the Enterprise battle group we have nothing to worry about, but if it is there to suppliment Enterprise, we might start worrying about an attack on Iran. October surprise anybody.

We will know around the 21st of October if the President and Karl Rove haven't gone absolutely out of their minds.

Posted by: Ron Byers on October 10, 2006 at 9:38 PM | PERMALINK

One less than bright spot in the Democratic lineup: after roughly evening his race against George Allen (R-KKK) in late September, Jim Webb (D-USMC) seems to have fallen a few points back in the polls.

http://www.pollster.com/polls/?state=VA&race=senate_race

What happened in late September to make Virginia voters more favorable to Allen? That's right: he was accused by numerous former acquaintances and football teammates of having frequently used the word "nigger" in the 1970s.

Thus coin we a new epithet: the "N-word bounce". Welcome to Virginia, Democrats! This is what it takes to compete in the South, remember?

Posted by: brooksfoe on October 10, 2006 at 9:39 PM | PERMALINK

Results 1 - 10 of about 171 for "luck favors the well prepared"

Apparently, they don't say that. Thanks Kevin.


Oh well. I guess that's what happens Kevin when you get all secular with your sayings


Results 1 - 10 of about 4,750,000 for heaven helps those who help themselves. (0.19 seconds)
(and I agree with you about Dean, he's looking pretty smart)


and American Hawk is a wanker, double-plus ungood.

Posted by: dustbowl on October 10, 2006 at 10:00 PM | PERMALINK

Ron Byers - there are two carrier groups headed for the Gulf and one in place.

I have been carrying on about this to anyone who would listen for a while now. (Just Google "Perle Harbor.")

Posted by: Global Citizen on October 10, 2006 at 10:01 PM | PERMALINK

Mach Tuck mentioned a few posts back about Bush Sr. being a wimp.

Oh man, theres quite a story about the wimp word.

Way back when Sr. Bush was running for re-election, a reporter asked the question about the wimp factor referencing Bush Sr.

Well, Jr. Bush was present and went bonkers big time. In fact Sr. Bush had to ask his security detail to restrain Jr. because he was planning to extend physical violence on the reporter covertly.

Now everyone has buttons, I understand this.

Could it be that W stands for Wimp?

I dont know, lets ask.

Posted by: buttons on October 10, 2006 at 10:01 PM | PERMALINK

Thus coin we a new epithet: the "N-word bounce". Welcome to Virginia, Democrats! This is what it takes to compete in the South, remember?

Yah, thats something the GOP can be proud of!

Vote for George Allen the Strom Thurmond Racist of Virginia
George Allen doesn't have any intermixed children, yet, but we hope to change that!!
Vote for George Strom Allen!!

Posted by: Mach Tuck on October 10, 2006 at 10:01 PM | PERMALINK
Way back when Sr. Bush was running for re-election, a reporter asked the question about the wimp factor referencing Bush Sr.

Well, Jr. Bush was present and went bonkers big time. In fact Sr. Bush had to ask his security detail to restrain Jr. because he was planning to extend physical violence on the reporter covertly.

Yah, Chicken Kiev doesn't sit so well with Wimp JR, either!!

Posted by: Mach Tuck on October 10, 2006 at 10:04 PM | PERMALINK

As of 10pm EDT, the odds are about 63/37 that the Democrats pick up at least 14.5 seats, 39/61 that they pick up at least 19.5 seats and about 60/40 that they get control of the house.

This is from Tradesports.

Those odds don't sound anywhere near as optimistic as the blog entry.

I guess that means that if you are correct and it is a big win for the Democrats then you can make some serious money betting on the Democrats winning at least 25 seats. You can get 4-1 on your money.

Posted by: neil wilson on October 10, 2006 at 10:05 PM | PERMALINK

Apparently, they don't say that. Thanks Kevin.

Can someone explain what AH is talking about here with his google search?

Posted by: Constantine on October 10, 2006 at 10:05 PM | PERMALINK

Good to see Howard Dean getting some good words. I have always thought that his 50 state strategy was insightful and forward thinking. I hope it can continue.

Posted by: Fred on October 10, 2006 at 10:09 PM | PERMALINK

the average Democratic lead in the generic congressional race

OK. but if you look at the specific races, if the vote were held today the House and Senate would end up pretty evenly split. Based on their most recent campaigning, I wouldn't bet on McCaskill in MO or Ford Jr. in TN.

What's with all those Democrats and reporters who knew about Foley but didn't think it was a story?

Posted by: papago on October 10, 2006 at 10:10 PM | PERMALINK

But you know what they say: luck favors the well prepared.

Ah, c'mon, that's lame. How about Fortes fortuna adiuvat?

Posted by: scarshapedstar on October 10, 2006 at 10:11 PM | PERMALINK

Bwahahahaha! Republicans don't clean up. They only know how to screw things beyond repair.

They also know how to sprinkle powdered sugar on a great big steaming pile of horseshit and call it chocolate cake. And far too many people line up with plates in hand.

Posted by: latts on October 10, 2006 at 10:12 PM | PERMALINK

Can someone explain what AH is talking about here with his google search? -Constantine

He was trying to disprove Kevins saying, I think.
I get;
Results 1 - 10 of about 682,000 for 'luck favors the well prepared'. (0.38 seconds)

Seems they do say that AH, luck favors the well prepared, quite a bit.
To further that;
Luck favors the well prepared. It is not random. This is something that has been studied in detail, written about in Science Magazine, and the results are consistent. Good luck favors the well prepared. So get prepared for leadership and the odds will be in your favor.

Posted by: Mach Tuck on October 10, 2006 at 10:14 PM | PERMALINK

Globial Citizen

Why are these folks ignoring us? What the heck is going on? Damn, didn't the Congress just suspend habeas corpus?

Posted by: Ron Byers on October 10, 2006 at 10:16 PM | PERMALINK

OK, since we're playing Google today:

Results 1 - 10 of about 108,000 for "don't count your chickens"

Posted by: JS on October 10, 2006 at 10:18 PM | PERMALINK

I don't know Ron. Tis a mystery to me.

Posted by: Global Citizen on October 10, 2006 at 10:24 PM | PERMALINK

We know what the big story is going to be.

At this point, I have to thing that an attack on Iran would rebound against the President. Nobody is going to vote for him out of patriotism.

Here is hoping that the President will come to his senses. Maybe somebody will conclude that bombing Iran would only benefit the Democrats.

It is interesting we can almost carry on private conversations in these threads. How come?

Posted by: Ron Byers on October 10, 2006 at 10:28 PM | PERMALINK

What's with all those Democrats and reporters who knew about Foley but didn't think it was a story? - papago

It wasn't a story. They didn't have the emails. Once ABC had the emails - a LOT of emails, too many to be denied - it became a story. And ABC did what responsible journalists do: they called him up to confront him with the emails, and get his response, before writing the story. And he resigned. And then it was a front-page story.

A bunch of rumors that a congressman is gay and has a thing for young dudes is not a news story, despite what Matt Drudge may think.

Posted by: brooksfoe on October 10, 2006 at 10:29 PM | PERMALINK

See, now you are assuming he has some sense to come to. I don't think he does.

If he had lesser parents, he wouldn't be president - he would be an inpatient.

Posted by: Global Citizen on October 10, 2006 at 10:29 PM | PERMALINK

Maybe the neo-cons can help me out here with their superior logic.

As I understand Iran has light water reactors that use enriched uranium [3.5%] and are not supposed to be able to create weapons grade materials. And George supposedly has carriers on the way to Iran..

But, John Bolton says that the US doesn't plan to do anything about Koreas weapons. Korea also is supposedly using light water reactors [Weapon safe] Even though Korea still has a Graphite Reactors, why the hypocrisy?

Now, which is it? Can a LWR enrich uranium or not?
Why/How is Irans reactors different from N. Koreas?

Shouldn't these reactors, such as in Canada, use natural uranium with deutrium water?
[Heavy Water Reactors]

Posted by: Mach Tuck on October 10, 2006 at 10:31 PM | PERMALINK

Ron - I think the RNC has had to cut its budget for non-essential activities like blog-trolling, in order to run more TV ads in districts they are desperately trying to hold.

Posted by: brooksfoe on October 10, 2006 at 10:31 PM | PERMALINK

I even blogged about this, comparing the futile effort to time the market to the futile effort not to organize all 50 states unless you know you're gonig to have things going your way: you have to go ahead and organize, and then if things break, you're ready---just as you said. Another analogy: in 7-card stud, you don't wait to start betting once you've made your hand: you have to take some chances to win the big pots. FWIW, here's the link to my post.

By the way, guys and gals, it seems best simply to ignore American Hawk, Al, Cheney, Alice, and the rest of that lot. They really have nothing to say: just talking points and falsehoods, so far as I can tell. Just a thought.

Posted by: LeisureGuy on October 10, 2006 at 10:35 PM | PERMALINK

Ron - I think the RNC has had to cut its budget for non-essential activities like blog-trolling, in order to run more TV ads in districts they are desperately trying to hold.
Posted by: brooksfoe

They are planning their talking points for the upcoming war on the Great Pumpkin, Charley Brown, and Halloween

Posted by: Mach Tuck on October 10, 2006 at 10:36 PM | PERMALINK

The reason we won't do anything about North Korea can be summed up in one word: China.

China has no desire to take on the humanitarian burden that would result if the current North Korean regime fell.

Two other words reenforce our commitment not to do anything militarily with North Korea: South Korea.

Since the Chinese and the South Koreans make all those lovely toys, there is no way on earth we will do anything they don't approve. We need their cash to finance our tax cuts for the rich.

Posted by: Ron Byers on October 10, 2006 at 10:38 PM | PERMALINK

there are two carrier groups headed for the Gulf and one in place.

Haven't they been sending all kinds of units to the Gulf?

Do people know we've been pulling troops/Marines and equipment out of Korea? And Hawaii? And Okinawa? And that we have been leaving ourselves spread dangerously thin with regards to our security commitment in Korea?

In the southern part of the peninsula, there are staging bases where large amounts of US military material is stored. Well, when they started running out of things because of the Iraq war, they went to the stockpiles in Korea.

Guess what? Much of it was unusable--in most cases, the material had been ruined in storage.

That's your Rumsfeld at work--what an American hero!

Posted by: Pale Rider on October 10, 2006 at 10:40 PM | PERMALINK

But Dean went ahead with his 50-state strategy, and now, with the GOP rapidly imploding, he has created at least some structure in all 50 states:

Very interesting Leisureguy

Posted by: Mach Tuck on October 10, 2006 at 10:41 PM | PERMALINK

If you were smarter, AmericanHawk, you'd also be luckier.

Results 1 - 10 of about 19,500,000 for lucky or smart.

Whatever amusement you get from trolling here is nothing compared to the amusement you provide for us. We are both lucky and smart.

Posted by: Arf on October 10, 2006 at 10:43 PM | PERMALINK

That's your Rumsfeld at work--what an American hero!

Whoops, my bad.

Of course, everything that's happening right now is Clinton's fault.

Posted by: Pale Rider on October 10, 2006 at 10:44 PM | PERMALINK

Since the Chinese and the South Koreans make all those lovely toys, there is no way on earth we will do anything they don't approve. We need their cash to finance our tax cuts for the rich. -Ron Byers


Thanks Ron =)

But now that they do have nukes [supposedly] wouldn't China now be forced into some kind of Sanctions against Iran, With US help and China as the key?

Posted by: Mach Tuck on October 10, 2006 at 10:44 PM | PERMALINK

Count on the Dirty Tricks Party, a/k/a the GOP, throwing everything they possibly can at the Democrats over the next 4 weeks.

I see McCain is already dusting off the "blame Clinton" fossil to use for Bush's utter failure with regard to North Korea. These criminals are shameless.

These immoral perverts will never, ever take accountability or responsibility for anything. As soon as the Dems take over Congress, we need to use the RICO statutes against this organized crime group....

Posted by: The Conservative Deflator on October 10, 2006 at 10:45 PM | PERMALINK

I get it Tuck, the North Koreans are threatening us, so we bomb Iran. Sort of like Ossama is in Afganistan so we invade Iraq.

Way kool thinking.

The truth is out there.

Posted by: Ron Byers on October 10, 2006 at 10:47 PM | PERMALINK

American Hawk writes that since there are only 171 Google hits for "Luck favors the well prepared" it is not that big a saying.

But this saying originates with Louis Pasteur, who said it in French, not English. There is no unique correct translation. Bartleby's renders it in English thus: “In the fields of observation chance favors only those minds which are prepared.” — LOUIS PASTEUR, inaugural lecture as professor and dean of the faculty of science, University of Lille, Douai, France, December 7, 1854.

In any case, American Hawk's criticism of Kevin on this point is not a propos.

Posted by: Joel Rubinstein on October 10, 2006 at 10:47 PM | PERMALINK

I mean Korea instead of Iran sorry =(

[drinking problem, 3 beers and 2 hands]

Posted by: Mach Tuck on October 10, 2006 at 10:47 PM | PERMALINK

I get it Tuck, the North Koreans are threatening us, so we bomb Iran. Sort of like Ossama is in Afganistan so we invade Iraq.

Way kool thinking.

The truth is out there.


Hahaha, I didn't mean it that way, but you did just strike an rather ironic note there, maybe they are the crazies as Colon Powell called them.

Posted by: Mach Tuck on October 10, 2006 at 10:50 PM | PERMALINK

Tuck

I thought you were channeling Dick Cheney. :)

Can somebody remind George what happened in Spain just after 3/11. The spanish government thought they would get a patriotic election boost out of an attack if they blamed it on home grown terrorists.

The public didn't believe them, and the government got bounced "big time" within a week.

Katrina and Iraq have changed everything. The chances of the American people supporting a surprise attack on Iran by voting Republican are all but non-existent.

I sure hope the Administration doesn't try to find out if I am wrong.

Posted by: Ron Byers on October 10, 2006 at 10:53 PM | PERMALINK

It's much too soon to be speaking of a Republican "meltdown." These sonsabitches are loaded to the gills with cash and will spends boatloads of it over the next month pounding Democrats into the ground with nasty commercials depicting Nancy Pelosi as a two-bit slut and Harry Reid as a camel fucker -- and sadly, it will probably work, again.

Posted by: smedleybutler on October 10, 2006 at 10:54 PM | PERMALINK

Exceptional review of John Dean's book on authoritarian personality disorder and the Republican party,

http://cannonfire.blogspot.com/2006/10/sex-lies-and-authoritarian.html

Posted by: cld on October 10, 2006 at 10:56 PM | PERMALINK

Tuck
I thought you were channeling Dick Cheney. :) -Ron

Please take away my shotgun if I ever do!!
=============================

t's much too soon to be speaking of a Republican "meltdown." These sonsabitches are loaded to the gills with cash and will spends boatloads of it over the next month pounding Democrats into the ground with nasty commercials depicting Nancy Pelosi as a two-bit slut and Harry Reid as a camel fucker -- and sadly, it will probably work, again.
Posted by: smedleybutler

Well I am shocked..damn shocked I tell you!
Thats not very moral or compassionate of them!

Posted by: Mach Tuck on October 10, 2006 at 10:59 PM | PERMALINK

I sure hope the Administration doesn't try to find out if I am wrong. -Ron

Yeh me too, welp I'm off for a bit, exit stage left.

later.

Posted by: Mach Tuck on October 10, 2006 at 11:03 PM | PERMALINK

I'm going to go myself. School night and all.

Posted by: Global Citizen on October 10, 2006 at 11:13 PM | PERMALINK

Quote of the night from Global Citizen:

If he had lesser parents, he wouldn't be president - he would be an inpatient.

Posted by: GOP defector on October 10, 2006 at 11:25 PM | PERMALINK

If he had lesser parents, he wouldn't be president - he would be an inpatient.

You know, John McCain's North Vietnamese captors called him "the Prince", since his father was commander of the US Pacific Fleet at the time. McCain wrote after his release that the Vietnamese seemed to think of him as some kind of royalty or nobility in America's presumably feudal society, and that "they had no idea how our system actually works."

Thirty years later, George W. Bush, the son of a President, is now President. The Democratic candidate in 2008 is likely to be the wife of the last Democratic candidate; the GOP candidate is likely to be...John McCain, son of the commander of the US Pacific Fleet.

"No idea how our system actually works," eh? Would that it were so.

Posted by: brooksfoe on October 10, 2006 at 11:44 PM | PERMALINK

Froomkin gives his report:

Officially, the White House refuses to even consider the possibility of a Democratic takeover of Congress in the November 7 elections. (As Ken Herman writes for Cox News Service, "It's a question the White House has banished to the won't-dignify-it-with-an-answer category.")

Maybe that's because it's hard for anyone -- Bush fan or foe -- to imagine how different a Bush presidency would be with a Congress that doesn't bend to his will and maybe even starts to question him.

And while it's too soon to count Karl Rove and the White House political machine out, it's going to be awfully hard for Bush to come to the rescue of his party when his lack of credibility is the cause of so many of its problems.

I think Froomkin is right but we need Dems to step up to the mike and to NOT let up on this president. Bush has this projectionist thing - he turns bad news, tries to blame Dems. JUST TURN IT BACK ON BUSH.

It's nice that Hillary isn't take any of McCain's comments. Somebody should ask McCain if he plans on running for president and if so, does McCain plan on blaming Clinton thoughtout his administrations for all it's short comings?

McCain is just going to be another Bush?

Just another hate Dems, blame Clinton redux.

Posted by: Cheryl on October 10, 2006 at 11:45 PM | PERMALINK

So this post is Kevin's clever way of saying that Howard Dean is the super-smart operative who arranged the Foley scandal.

Well done, Howard!

Posted by: craigie on October 10, 2006 at 11:51 PM | PERMALINK

What I'd like to hear from the Democratic establishment is simple: what's next? The Foley mess is likely to die down very soon and the Republicans will do their damnedest to make sure it stays dead until after the election. Woodward's book and the NIE are both yesterday's news. Iraq is still a frigging mess and the Democrats will benefit from that, but what is their game plan for the final few weeks of the campaign?

The Republican Party is going to go negative in a big way and they still have the cash to do so pretty successfully. What's the strategy for countering the crap that Bush is already spewing and that will be spewed in ad after ad? Fortunately for us, nobody has been paying attention to Bush, and he is, of course, now not exactly the most trusted guy in the U.S., but still ... he has the bully pulpit and he will be using it.

Maybe it comes down to this: what is the sound bite or talking point that is going to resonate with the last of the undecided voters as they make up their mind which button to push?

Posted by: PaulB on October 11, 2006 at 12:01 AM | PERMALINK

"Well done, Howard"

It was a rather unfortunately comment from Kevin. If Foley had not been exposed and if the Republicans had been moderately successful in their "all terror, all the time" campaign and the Democrats lost the House by, say, just one or two people, then Howard Dean would have been slammed up one side and down the other for doing precisely what Kevin is complimenting him on today.

I happen to agree with Dean's strategy, although I'm not aware enough of how he's executing it to know whether he is doing what it takes to pull it off. The trouble is that we really won't know for quite a few more years whether Dean has been simply throwing money away or whether he really is making a difference.

Posted by: PaulB on October 11, 2006 at 12:04 AM | PERMALINK

"Apparently, luck favors the party that's gay-baiting."

Pretty soon, the multiplexes of America can eliminate most of their equipmentyour powers of projection are really that amazing.

At some point, perhaps even within your own lifetime, Mr. PluckedChicken, you may have to choose between hating progressives because they are for gay marriage or because they are "baiting" gays. Not both. But really, this is just your way of saying you are afraid of everyone who isn't just like you that wouldn't sound so chest-thumpingly impressive, would it?

Meanwhile, you and Al should get together to see who can do the better job polishing jackboots with your tongues! And when a simple pat on the head (or maybe beven a nickname) from some asshole on the way to thye rubbish pile, or a minimum-security facility in Connecticut, makes you cream your jeans, you guys can chant to yourselves over and over, "We're not gay. At least we're not gay. But please, sir, can I have another?"

Oh, and yeah, sure your heroes are going to keep both houses. You bet. What could go wrong with such Perfect Leaders in charge? Shine, mister?

Posted by: Kenji on October 11, 2006 at 12:07 AM | PERMALINK

What the Romans said more than 2000 years ago was "Luck favors the brave". Fortuna fortes iuvat.
'Twas ever thus. It's only since Howard Dean became national chairman that we've grown a pair.

Posted by: Ron Thompson on October 11, 2006 at 12:26 AM | PERMALINK

Ron Thompson:

Word.

That no-neck Asperger's victim is my hero.

Bob

Posted by: rmck1 on October 11, 2006 at 12:45 AM | PERMALINK

Count on the Dirty Tricks Party, a/k/a the GOP, throwing everything they possibly can at the Democrats over the next 4 weeks.

So far, only one party has been firing dirty tricks thick and fast. And it hasn't been the GOP.

Posted by: lbg on October 11, 2006 at 1:04 AM | PERMALINK

as Ansel Adams said: Luck is the intersection of opportunity and preparation (or words to that effect). Googled it and found: Luck is what happens when preparation meets opportunity. Seneca (Roman philosopher, mid-1st century AD

Posted by: charlie Warner on October 11, 2006 at 1:05 AM | PERMALINK
What's with all those Democrats and reporters who knew about Foley but didn't think it was a story? papago at 10:10 PM
I believe you're confused with the Republican leadership in the House who know about Foley and covered up for him because they don't give a damn about predators hitting on children.
Why are these folks ignoring us? What the heck is going on? Damn, didn't the Congress just suspend habeas corpus? Ron Byers at 10:16 PM
There have been numerous complaints and comments about it. Did you catch Olbermann's comment on Countdown tonight? The transcript will be up in a couple of days, but Crooks and Liars already has the video. As for the projected attack on Iraq, BuzzFlash has been all over this There is nothing in the Republican media, when is there ever any real news there until hell breaks loose.
But, John Bolton says that the US doesn't plan to do anything about Koreas weapons....Mach Tuck at 10:31 PM
Bush seems to have done all he could to encourage them

Wednesday, 3 April, 2002, 12:06 GMT 13:06 UK
US grants N Korea nuclear funds
Pyongyang threatened to pull out of the nuclear deal

The US Government has announced that it will release $95m to North Korea as part of an agreement to replace the Stalinist country's own nuclear programme, which the US suspected was being misused.
Under the 1994 Agreed Framework an international consortium is building two proliferation-proof nuclear reactors and providing fuel oil for North Korea while the reactors are being built.
In releasing the funding, President George W Bush waived the Framework's requirement that North Korea allow inspectors to ensure it has not hidden away any weapons-grade plutonium from the original reactors.
President Bush argued that the decision was "vital to the national security interests of the United States".

Exceptional review of John Dean's book on authoritarian personality disorder and the Republican party,... cld at 10:56 PM

For those in the Southern California area:
An Evening with John W. Dean
"Conservatives Without a Conscience"
Thursday, October 12, 2006 7:00 p,m.
Main Library Martin Luther King, Jr Auditorium
600 Santa Monica Blvd (between 6th and 7th streets)
Underground Parking on site. Enter 7th Street side
Santa Monica, CA
310 458 8600
www.smp.org

Posted by: Mike on October 11, 2006 at 1:12 AM | PERMALINK

So far, only one party has been firing dirty tricks thick and fast. And it hasn't been the GOP.

Boo fucking hoo! Pointing out that Iraq is a clusterfuck and House leaders shouldn't cover up for sexual predators is so meeeeeeean!

Posted by: cry me a river on October 11, 2006 at 1:14 AM | PERMALINK

Drat! www.smpl.org for the library's web site.

Posted by: Mike on October 11, 2006 at 1:16 AM | PERMALINK

Dean pushed for running a Democratic candidate in every race, not just the ones that looked possible to win.

If he'd gone with the strategy of not bothering to fight in the "safe Republican" districts, Dems would not have been on many of those ballots to benefit from the sudden, unexpected drop in Republican party-wide popularity.

Without warning, it rained soup — and Dean already had his people standing outside with buckets, just in case.

Fortune favors the ready, indeed.

Posted by: Raven on October 11, 2006 at 1:18 AM | PERMALINK
... the GOP implosion is credited to Dean. Thomas1 at 12:18 AM
Your lack of reading comprehension skills is even funnier, chuckles. Since Dean is being credited with putting the Party in a position to take advantage of an unanticipated implosion, you should try again. Perhaps you'll make sense one day, but it's doubtful. Posted by: Mike on October 11, 2006 at 1:21 AM | PERMALINK

Dear little Chuckles, just as funny as ever, writes: "Funny how the implosion by the Soviet Union is not credited to Reagan, but the GOP implosion is credited to Dean."

Well, sure, if you live in an alternate reality and have a complete inability to comprehend what you read, not to mention a complete inability to actually comprehend history, but otherwise, well....

Posted by: PaulB on October 11, 2006 at 1:28 AM | PERMALINK

lbg wrote: "So far, only one party has been firing dirty tricks thick and fast. And it hasn't been the GOP."

ROFL.... Don't get out much, do you? Poor guy....

Posted by: PaulB on October 11, 2006 at 1:30 AM | PERMALINK

American Hawk and al, I'll take that bet. A $100 bucks apiece that the Republicans do not keep both House and the Senate? You're on. Let's send checks to Kevin Drum for $100 per bet. Once the checks from each bettor clears, the bet is on. Remember, the bet means the Repubs win a majority in both chambers (or that BOTH the speaker of the house and the majority leader are Republicans). Will you put your money where your mouth is/are?

Posted by: gyp on October 11, 2006 at 1:33 AM | PERMALINK

"That no-neck Asperger's victim is my hero."

Bob - I think you are confusing Aspergers with Tourets.:)

Posted by: Joyfully Subversive on October 11, 2006 at 1:47 AM | PERMALINK

Bob - I think you are confusing Aspergers with Tourets.:)

F*%king sh^$t he is, you motherf&*ker!

Oh, sorry.

Posted by: floopmeister on October 11, 2006 at 1:55 AM | PERMALINK

"So far, only one party has been firing dirty tricks thick and fast. And it hasn't been the GOP."

Lemme get out my violin and play "My Heart Bleeds for Thee."

What a bunch of crybabies.

Any political party that would pass out "Purple Heart Band-Aids" at their convention to mock the service of the opposing candidate - when their guy was an aWol little pussy and still is - does not deserve any consideration or sense of fair play. Jackasses.

I hope the adhesive on those bandaids was highly carcinogenic and 100% fatal. Those people are beneath contempt.

Posted by: Joyfully Subversive on October 11, 2006 at 1:56 AM | PERMALINK

Fortune favours the Brave. It does! It does! Don't slack off now! Come on Democrats show some guts.

Dean is just one guy. Of course we also have Conyers (and our own Pete Defazio)... About 20 more such leaders and we can take back the country.

Posted by: ppk on October 11, 2006 at 1:57 AM | PERMALINK

Joyfully Subversive:

Tourettes -- LOL ! No, actually I'm not. I have long experience on the Dean blog with other supporters worrying like hell about his television appearances and debate performances, giving out advice like solicitous parents. Part of it is that Dean really *isn't* an image-consccious guy (he's notorious for his cheap off-the-rack suits he refuses to throw away, and wearing shirt collars a half-size too small), but Dean's Tourette's-y rep is more a creation of the wingnut myth machine. A Washington gaffe, as he memorably said, is when somebody slips up and tells the truth :)

Not that Dean hasn't made his share of completely bone-headed statements, true and unfortunately enough. But the "angry bombthrower" meme is largely an exaggeration based on miniscule grains of truth.

I say Asperger's because I've studied Dean's TV performances and it really does seem like his mouth and his brain are running on two different tracks. Dean often has little verbal trainwrecks where he has to start over and re-phrase what he was trying to say. Since I've conversed on the NYT fora with an extremely intelligent person with mild autism (and Asperger's is thought to be a form of mild autism), who has described those kind of issues with public speaking, that's where I made the connection.

Bob

Posted by: rmck1 on October 11, 2006 at 2:04 AM | PERMALINK

Funny how the implosion by the Soviet Union is not credited to Reagan, but the GOP implosion is credited to Dean.

Good point. The GOP was about to collapse from its own hollow morality and flamboyant incompetence all by itself. Feel better now?

Posted by: craigie on October 11, 2006 at 2:06 AM | PERMALINK

I take it from Al at doubling up that he is offering 2:1 odds in favor of Republicans maintaining majority in both houses.

I'll take that 2:1 bet up to a max of $1000. Republicans have to maintain majority in both houses, your $2000 to my $1000.

How do you want to put the money up, Al?

Posted by: notthere on October 11, 2006 at 2:09 AM | PERMALINK

Bob - I swarmed last time out. I love Howard Dean. He is a breath of fresh air - and it is looking like he gets the last laugh on Rahm "send me your red-state money for safe blue-state races" Emanuel, too.

If the Dems had gone the R.E. route, we wouldn't be sitting in the catbirds seat right now. It ain't over yet - but heading into the homestretch it's looking good. And Dean's insistence that we have a candidate in every race was a stroke of genius, it looks like.

Posted by: Joyfully Subversive on October 11, 2006 at 2:16 AM | PERMALINK

Joyfully Subversive:

Word.

I was up in New Hampshire. Hey, we won my area -- Claremont -- at least :)

And while I totally agree, I think I'd support the 50-state stragegy even if we lose again. Long-term thinking is going to be the only way to turn the Democratic Party into a force again that routinely wins national majorities -- just like it was for the Republicans.

Trutfully, I'm not so sanguine about our chances as good people are starting to become. I'd bet we take the House, but not in a 20 or 30-seat blowout. We're about to weather a veritable tsunami of attack ads courtesy of an extremely flush RNC. And the GOP turnout operation is a well-oiled machine, indeed. We need to keep on our toes, every last one of us -- including myself.

We need to get our asses down there volunteering on the ground.

Bob

Posted by: rmck1 on October 11, 2006 at 2:31 AM | PERMALINK

My ass is volunteering. I just emailed Dr. Dean that I would be taking election day off to help with get-out-the-vote efforts. Globe has a Dean Strategy mentality and has me banging on doors in state districts outside my own safely blue one every Saturday, and we have gone to the Ozarks twice so far, working for Roy Blunt's opponent, a contrary son-of-a-bitch by the apt name of Truman, in Springfield.

Posted by: Joyfully Subversive on October 11, 2006 at 2:59 AM | PERMALINK

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Posted by: sdf on October 11, 2006 at 3:04 AM | PERMALINK

So far, only one party has been firing dirty tricks thick and fast. And it hasn't been the GOP.

Guy, we're talking about here on Planet Earth, the one with the blue skies.

Posted by: Calton Bolick on October 11, 2006 at 3:27 AM | PERMALINK

I'll take your bet, Hawk. What are the stakes?

Posted by: Andy on October 11, 2006 at 3:53 AM | PERMALINK

Posted by: Thomas1

Funny how the implosion by the Soviet Union is not credited to Reagan, but the GOP implosion is credited to Dean.

Funny how the "old woman who lived in a shoe" wasn't oppressed by Stalin. Really what nonsense. Gorbachev's own writings regarding his first meetings with Reagan {paraphrase} "set glasnost back by several years".
Much like killing off the moderates in Iran ( and every other place that doesn't lick American boots) every couple of years with " axis of evil" shit.
Yeah, the Whigs are out out to make the world a safer place. To die in.

Posted by: Another Bob on October 11, 2006 at 4:03 AM | PERMALINK

North Korea,taxes,Iraq,Foley, all just noise, the bigger picture is which party will commit to protect us at home as we are becoming increasingly a larger target on the radicals hit list.

I respect the difficult job the President has on prosecuting the war on terror.

I support and honour all our sons and daughters in Iraq and other fronts fighting to protect our freedom and democracy.

I accept that in any activity there are rules, if we are disadvantaged by playing by them when our opponent plays another set, we must have the option to play by there's.

I can't accept that comments by Republican congressman Mica,.." ..only detect guns and knives.." in our airports. Surely we can do better than that.

I wont accept that our country in times of war would argue or procrastinate with providing whatever is required to keep us safe.

I and many others have given great latitude to the government in this very difficult time, as we should, but if our safety in these difficult times is not a priority we should all question our support.


Nicholas Sage

Posted by: Nicholas Sage on October 11, 2006 at 5:23 AM | PERMALINK

Its time for the Democrats take out full page ads in the NYT, Washington Post and LA Times, asserting Bush was arrested for cocaine possession in Houston in 1972 and the arrest has been conveniently expunged from his record. Add in the statutory rape of Robin Lowman and Bush's homosexual relationship with Victor Ashe and the homoerotic escapades he undertook while in he was in Skull and Bones at Yale.

Show the world and his GOP base what a sick, criminal pervert he really is.

Let the GOP prove their innocence for a change, instead of the Democrats having to prove theirs...

Posted by: The Liberal Avenger on October 11, 2006 at 6:48 AM | PERMALINK

PLEASE! Don't worry about GOOD NEWS FOR REPUBLICANS...John Harris and Mark Halperin are on WJ right now giving them playbook instructions and encouragement along with rosy scenarios about their liklihood of success. Mark just nearly said out loud that Santorum was in a good position to win his re-electin. Confirms my belief that if they can just get their pundits to call this election CLOSE then the Diebold machines can take over and make it so!!!

Posted by: Dancer on October 11, 2006 at 7:51 AM | PERMALINK

"Democrats have upped hating gays"

Yet another attempt by the right to conflate being gay with being a child molestor

Posted by: rea on October 11, 2006 at 9:08 AM | PERMALINK

"the GOP candidate is likely to be...John McCain, son of the commander of the US Pacific Fleet."

The case for McCain as royalty is stronger than that--his grandfather was a 4-star admiral as well.

Posted by: rea on October 11, 2006 at 9:21 AM | PERMALINK

Branch Rickey-"Luck is the residue of design".

Posted by: Mark on October 11, 2006 at 11:02 AM | PERMALINK

"I accept that in any activity there are rules, if we are disadvantaged by playing by them when our opponent plays another set, we must have the option to play by there's."

Nicholas wants the terrorists to win.

What sort of nitwit mistakes "there is" for theirs?

Posted by: Ace Franze on October 11, 2006 at 1:46 PM | PERMALINK

I'd bet my dick if I had one.

Posted by: American Hawk on October 11, 2006 at 1:48 PM | PERMALINK

One of the reasons for Dean's 50 state strategy was to be in position to take advantage of a meltdown or big swing in public opinion. You need to have the candidates and apparatus in place when luck comes your way. While you can't predict something like Foley, with Iraq and other failures, I suspect Dean and many others saw a big swing coming soon....

Posted by: G Spot1 on October 11, 2006 at 1:52 PM | PERMALINK

Ah, dear little Chuckles never disappoints, does he? Ever with the idiotic questions that have no bearing on, well, anything: "So, similarly, do you credit Howard Dean for the GOP implosion or not?"

Dear heart, since nobody, anywhere, has ever said anything like this, repeatedly asking the question just makes you look silly. But then you already knew that.

Posted by: PaulB on October 11, 2006 at 2:39 PM | PERMALINK

The 'Publicans are playing Calvinball. Not just in Iraq. In general. Moving goalposts are not what I look for in a workable foreign policy.

Other kids games are such a bore - they gotta have rules and they gotta keep score - But Calvinball is better by far! It's never the same! It's always bizarre!

Posted by: Global Citizen on October 11, 2006 at 3:30 PM | PERMALINK

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