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Tilting at Windmills

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October 13, 2006
By: Kevin Drum

EXODUS....It's wise for Democrats not to get too giddy over every new poll that comes out, but Gallup's latest is definitely one of the most remarkable we've seen in a while. In the past few elections, one of the strongest predictors among white voters of party preference has been church attendance: regular churchgoes vote overwhelmingly for Republicans while white non-attendees (and blacks) vote for Democrats.

But according to a Gallup poll released on Thursday, that advantage has dried up completely this year: regular churchgoers are now split evenly, with 47% planning to vote Republican and 47% planning to vote Democratic. As recently as last month Republicans still held a 20-point lead among frequent white churchgoers.

In the end, I imagine that a majority of these people will hold their noses and vote for Republicans after all. But if even 5% of them stay home and another 5% switch to the Democrats, it's going to have a huge impact. David Kuo's new book ought to help that along nicely.

Kevin Drum 1:10 PM Permalink | Trackbacks | Comments (68)

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Comments

Well, no, I don't find that poll to be credible.

Posted by: George on October 13, 2006 at 1:16 PM | PERMALINK

I fear a Democratic win in November. The millions of exploding wingnut heads are sure to send the planet hurtling into the sun.

Posted by: enozinho (wetorture.com) on October 13, 2006 at 1:23 PM | PERMALINK

I hate the fact that we still consider some voters "white" and some "black." What barbarians we are!

Posted by: Pothique on October 13, 2006 at 1:23 PM | PERMALINK

Once they are reminded that Jesus' message was entirely about abortion, gay marriage, and getting RICH RICH RICH from the stock market, they will vote for the Good Guys. Otherwise, the good folks at Diebold will protect us.

Stay tuned for Al -- he's Doritoed up and ready to rumble with his special parrot brand of Truthiness!

Posted by: Al's Mommy on October 13, 2006 at 1:24 PM | PERMALINK

David Kuo's new book ought to help that along nicely.

Kuo's book is going to be NO HELP to the liberals because conservatives have already seen through its liberal biased lies. The fact that he released parts of his book to the liberal Keith Olbermann gives more proof of its liberal bias. Reverend James Dobson has already pointed out its flaw and lies.

Link

"The release of this book criticizing the Bush administration's handling of its faith-based initiative program seems to represent little more than a mix of sour grapes and political timing. David Kuo's book doesn't hit shelves until next week, but excerpts released by media outlets paint the picture of a dissatisfied federal employee taking shots at the White House effort to connect faith-based nonprofit groups with legitimate societal needs.

"Big media will no doubt play this story to the hilt in the next several weeks, because it allows them to take aim at two of their favorite targets: President Bush and socially conservative Christians. Sadly, Kuo's characterization of his former colleagues, bosses and mission -- mischaracterizations, really -- will be fed to the public as truth."

Posted by: Al on October 13, 2006 at 1:24 PM | PERMALINK

In the end, people of faith can't vote for the party that has a platform of baby-killing, graverobbing, and legalized sexual perversion, even with euphimisms like "partial birth abortion", "death tax", and "queer marriage".

Posted by: American Hawk on October 13, 2006 at 1:25 PM | PERMALINK

In the end, people of faith can't vote for the party that has a platform of baby-killing, graverobbing, and legalized sexual perversion, even with euphimisms like "partial birth abortion", "death tax", and "queer marriage".

Don't forget about the liberal support of evolutionism, flag burning, and phonics.

Posted by: Al on October 13, 2006 at 1:28 PM | PERMALINK

These numbers, if true, would have a big impact on the GOP's turnout program. In any microtargeted marketing program past behavior is the best predictor of future results, most GOP turnout models will be pretty heavily based on the historic behavior of these people and the results of ID programs that happened months ago. It would be very difficult to factor this sudden change in voting preference into a model and then re-distribute those model results to all of the GOP ground operations this late in the game.

Also turnout models usually assume that any population that votes over 65% for your party should be targeted, on the theory that you'll turn out two of your votes for every one vote to the other side. A decline like this would be as bad as having African Americans go from 80% Democratic to 50%, which would make a large portion of Democratic GOTV counterproductive.

Posted by: tib on October 13, 2006 at 1:28 PM | PERMALINK

"In the end, people of faith can't vote for the party that has a platform of baby-killing, graverobbing, and legalized sexual perversion, even with euphimisms like "partial birth abortion", "death tax", and "queer marriage"."

Actually, for once I agree with American Hawk!

He's right, if we vote for the party that not only advocates these things, but actually practices it openly we must vote for the party of morality and the nation.

American Hawk, I salute you, and I will vote for the party that actually supports the family, the nation, and our way of life.

I'm voting Democrat across the board!

Posted by: sheerahkahn on October 13, 2006 at 1:33 PM | PERMALINK

Kuo's book would help if being faith-based didn't mean discarding all evidence that doesn't support what you already think.

At best, it might make some people think "aw, fuck it" (or whatever the evangelical equivalent is) and stay home. But cross over? I'll believe it when I see it.

Posted by: craigie on October 13, 2006 at 1:38 PM | PERMALINK

(Knowing how much Kevin loves his charts and graphs, I must say) TalkingPointMemo's graph was better.

http://www.talkingpointsmemo.com/archives/010336.php

Posted by: Robert Earle on October 13, 2006 at 1:40 PM | PERMALINK

...millions of exploding wingnut heads are sure to send the planet hurtling into the sun.

Well, given that we're talking about pinheads, we're probably safe.

Posted by: Wonderin on October 13, 2006 at 1:40 PM | PERMALINK

The Republicans have not followed the
Teachings of Jesus. For Jesus would
never have Been so judgemental.

If you wish to vote with the Party
who reflects Christian Values.
Its best you learn what Christian
Values are. New Testament Red words.
If it comes from a Preacher it has his political slant to it.
Jesus would have thrown the Republicans out
of the Church for being Money lovers.
Its Gods job to Judge so dont fall
for the baby killing issue You are not God
don't try to do his job.

Posted by: Honey P on October 13, 2006 at 1:40 PM | PERMALINK

I think the explosion of "poll giddyness" on the left may be premature. Poll validity is extremely suspect.

If there was truly this explosion of liberal ideology in our country, I don't think Air America would be going broke today.

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/061013/air_america_radio_bankruptcy.html?.v=12

Posted by: sportsfan79 on October 13, 2006 at 1:46 PM | PERMALINK
I hate the fact that we still consider some voters "white" and some "black."

Since those are self-identification, shouldn't you say that you hate the fact that some voters still consider themselves "white" while some consider themselves "black"?

Posted by: cmdicely on October 13, 2006 at 1:47 PM | PERMALINK
If there was truly this explosion of liberal ideology in our country, I don't think Air America would be going broke today.

I think its pretty idiotic, but typical of the conservatrolls here, to think one has much relationship with the other.

Posted by: cmdicely on October 13, 2006 at 1:49 PM | PERMALINK

If there was truly this explosion of liberal ideology...

People don't need to "change their ideology" to recognize incompetence, corruption and deceit when they see it.

Posted by: Wonderin on October 13, 2006 at 1:51 PM | PERMALINK
Kuo's book would help if being faith-based didn't mean discarding all evidence that doesn't support what you already think.

While, certainly, there are people like that in religious (and, heck, areligious ideological) communities, I don't think it helps liberals at all to stubbornly hold to cartoonish stereotypes of people of faith.

Posted by: cmdicely on October 13, 2006 at 1:51 PM | PERMALINK

A few right wing evangelicals may stay home on election day, but they're not going to abandon the Republicans. They want the taxpayer money that Republicans promise them, and as long as Republicans hold out that carrot, evangelicals will stay on the dole.

Posted by: vanessa on October 13, 2006 at 1:51 PM | PERMALINK

I think its pretty idiotic, but typical of the conservatrolls here, to think one has much relationship with the other.

And I think it's typical of liberatrolls here to claim that air america has nothing to do with leftist ideology.

Posted by: sportsfan79 on October 13, 2006 at 1:52 PM | PERMALINK

A few right wing evangelicals may stay home on election day, but they're not going to abandon the Republicans. They want the taxpayer money that Republicans promise them, and as long as Republicans hold out that carrot, evangelicals will stay on the dole.

What color is the sky in your world?

Replace "right wing" with "left wing", replace "evangelicals" with "minorities", and replace "Republicans" with "Democrats". Now you've got a true statement.

"Evangelicals on the dole"... WTF??

Posted by: sportsfan79 on October 13, 2006 at 1:56 PM | PERMALINK

I think the explosion of "poll giddyness" on the left may be premature. Poll validity is extremely suspect.

I actually agree with this. Plus, the fact that the refs work for the other side makes the whole thing suspect.

Posted by: craigie on October 13, 2006 at 2:03 PM | PERMALINK
And I think it's typical of liberatrolls here to claim that air america has nothing to do with leftist ideology.

Air America certainly has something to do with leftist ideology; the success or failure of Air America is, OTOH, has a large number of factors that affect it that make it largely independent of the success of liberal ideology (and vice versa.)

For instance, in many markets (including my home media market), Air America's success in gaining listeners has stimulate the emergence of competing progressive talk radio stations, unconnected with Air America and without the debt baggage Air America carries from its chaotic start up period.

That competition certainly inhibits Air America's business success, but has nothing to do with the weakness of liberal ideology in the US audience.

Posted by: cmdicely on October 13, 2006 at 2:05 PM | PERMALINK

OK, the Dems have recruited half of the psychotics.

Posted by: Matt on October 13, 2006 at 2:05 PM | PERMALINK

"And I think it's typical of liberatrolls here to claim that air america has nothing to do with leftist ideology."

Since it manifestly does not, nor have you provided any evidence that it does, I'm a little puzzled as to what point you think you are making.

Posted by: PaulB on October 13, 2006 at 2:07 PM | PERMALINK

"Evangelicals on the dole"... WTF??

Let me explain this in simple terms so you can understand: Northeastern and West Coast states pay more in taxes to the federal government than they receive in benefits. Southern and Western states, which have the highest proportion of evangelical voters, receive more in federal benefits than they pay in taxes.

Or, in simpler terms, the hard-working Democratic Northeasterners and West Coasters labor supports the lazy Southern and Western Republicans, who would rather suck off the federal tit than actually go out and provide some real economic development for their regions.

Posted by: Stefan on October 13, 2006 at 2:07 PM | PERMALINK

Missouri's Speaker of the House Rod Jetton - who wasn't to proud to accept welfare and food stamps when he was attending a Baptist college - stood in front of a group in Platte County, MO last week and said it would have been a better turnout, but Repuiblicans have jobs.

This is the same guy who led the chorus of Animal calls during house debate on the draconian Medicaid cuts when a Democrat from St. Louis compared the cuts to a National Geographic special.

Posted by: Global Citizen on October 13, 2006 at 2:09 PM | PERMALINK

Or, to put it in even simpler terms: it's not your money -- it's our money.

Posted by: Stefan on October 13, 2006 at 2:10 PM | PERMALINK

Or, to put it in even simpler terms: it's not your money -- it's our money.

The Modern GOP, giving new meaning to the phrase "Welfare Queens".

Posted by: enozinho (wetorture.com) on October 13, 2006 at 2:12 PM | PERMALINK

"Evangelicals on the dole"... WTF??
Posted by: sportsfan79

Pay attn sportsfans. There have been recent postings with quotes from high level former employees of the faith based initaitives program stating that they quit because the program was so biased in favor of RIGHT thinking religious groups. Speculation is that these activities are criminal. No surprise there. You can look it up, as Annie would say.

Posted by: Michael7843853 G-O in 08! on October 13, 2006 at 2:14 PM | PERMALINK

From KC Buzz Blog, October 9 -

From welfare to work Democrats were, well, worked up after hearing comments made Friday by Republican House Speaker Rod Jetton to GOP supporters in Platte County and captured by KMBC-TV.

Jetton, of Marble Hill, thanked local Repubs for turning out, telling them, Democrats dont have a problem during the day because they dont have jobs. Republicans work. Its a little harder for them.
In making the slight against Democrats, Jetton didnt mention that he had been on welfare and lived in subsidized housing while a student at Southwest Baptist University in the late 1980s with a wife and young child.


Jettons southeast region has among the highest rates of unemployment in the state, and more than half of all births in the area are paid for by Medicaid.


Posted by: Global Citizen on October 13, 2006 at 2:14 PM | PERMALINK

Let me explain this in simple terms so you can understand: Northeastern and West Coast states pay more in taxes to the federal government than they receive in benefits. Southern and Western states, which have the highest proportion of evangelical voters, receive more in federal benefits than they pay in taxes.

Please tell me you aren't misinterpreting this as badly as you seem to be.

What you are describing is progressive taxation, and simply a byproduct of the fact that major metropolitan areas trend toward higher incomes. It's economics of progressive taxation for wealth redistribution, which is championed by the Democrats, incidentally.

That poster made it out as if evangelicals were synonymous with a welfare state!

Posted by: sportsfan79 on October 13, 2006 at 2:15 PM | PERMALINK

Can any of you Publican appologists spell hypocrite?

Posted by: Global Citizen on October 13, 2006 at 2:16 PM | PERMALINK

I think the general population is pretty disgusted with the Republicans. Absent an alternative they are going to vote Democratic. Sorry AH, your kind is going down.

The challenge for Democrats over the next two years will be to earn the trust and respect of citizens generally. They would do well to emphasize the moral nature of many of their "meat and potato" economic positions. They would also do well by understanding the difference between cycnical fundamentalist leaders and regular church members. There is a real hunger among the Christian base for the true compassion and love we recently witnessed in the aftermath of the murder of the Amish school girls.

Don't overlook that the importance of how the Amish responded to that event to the current shift going on in the electorate. They showed other Christians how Christians are really supposed to act. James Dobson and the other fundamentalist leaders look down right petty by comparison.

Posted by: Ron Byers on October 13, 2006 at 2:17 PM | PERMALINK

sportsfan79 >"...I don't think Air America would be going broke today..."

Time to wakeie, wakeie !

I don`t care what ideology the babbling mouths are pushing, I`m not listening to that crap. Even NPR has become a mouthpiece for disconnected happy talk of one sort or another.

Rant radio is a relic & doesn`t deserve to survive no matter the pushed ideology.

"I believe there is a force to the universe, I just don't commit to any particular man behind the curtain" - Oliver Willis

Posted by: daCascadian on October 13, 2006 at 2:19 PM | PERMALINK

"Reverend James Dobson ..."

Hey, Al. Dobson's not a "reverend." He's not ordained by any religious group.

Posted by: Cal Gal on October 13, 2006 at 2:22 PM | PERMALINK

I believe he quoted 'age discrimination'.

Basically, he's not old enough for 'old people jobs' and too old for 'young people jobs' at these service industries.

He was probably looking at actually losing his apartment, having no food, and being on the street. Being in jail is like on the street, except your bed and food don't get stolen and you're less stinky and cold. You still get beat up regularly.

Posted by: Crissa on October 13, 2006 at 2:23 PM | PERMALINK

Ron Byers - check todays editorial page of the Star and read the Jim Talent letter.

Posted by: Global Citizen on October 13, 2006 at 2:24 PM | PERMALINK

Good thing nobody is outing hypocritical gay Republicans.

Posted by: Ross Best on October 13, 2006 at 2:31 PM | PERMALINK

I have no reason to doubt the quality of the Gallup poll. However, Gallup's own article on the report (that Kevin linked to) is flawed in several ways. It divides the voting population into three groups: White frequent churchgoers, White infrequent churchgoers, and All others. Gallup ought to have listed these categories with estimated percentage of the total U.S. voting population, or percentage of likely voters. Also, it would be useful to know how self-identified non-Christian whites are categorized. For example, are white Jews who frequently attend synagogoge counted as White frequent churchgoers, as White infrequent churchgoers, or as All others? And are white Jews who infrequently attend synagogue counted as White infrequent churchgoers or as All others? The article does not say, and it doesn't link to another article with more info on the methods.

Posted by: Joel Rubinstein on October 13, 2006 at 2:36 PM | PERMALINK

In many ways I am the ideal AirAmerica listener-- but I think I've actually listened to it once for about 5 minutes and turned it off.

Why? Like most people, I have a job where I can't listen to the radio, so I really don't have much time in my day for talk radio, just the morning and after work. Not to mention I just don't like talk radio, no matter who is talking, I'm not one for passive listening, I'd much rather read than listen. Plus I get my daily fix of funny political spin from Daily Show and Colbert Report. AirAmerica just doesn't fit into my day, my bases and needs are covered.

The only radio I ever listen to is NPR, a few minutes of FreshAir, Cartalk and Wait, Wait Don't Tell Me. The fact is that most Dems and liberals don't want to listen to the liberal counterparts of conservative blowhards-- it's boring and irritating.

So, no, I don't think AirAmerica is a good barometer of the popularity of liberalism or the progresive movement. I know *a lot* of liberals and I don't know anyone who listens to AirAmerica.

Posted by: zoe kentucky on October 13, 2006 at 2:40 PM | PERMALINK

This new data acknowledges that the notion of values is much broader than two or three volatile issues like abortion rights or same-sex marriage. Finding oneself in agreement with another on two critical issues doesn't necessarily mean that both parties share the same values. Even the very cornerstone of many American voters beliefs, the Bible, offers numerous examples to support that observation. I don't know if we're on the verge of enlightenment or if someone has found a new way to fool more of us...but I do know that all that is required to maintain a rational balance is a willingness to take the time to learn enough about others such that an accurate and honest evaluation can prevail when confronted by the all too frequent rhetoric of partisan political absolutism. I think a wise man from our distant past had it about right when he coined the famous adage, "Moderation is the key".

Read more here:

www.thoughttheater.com

Posted by: Daniel DiRito on October 13, 2006 at 2:41 PM | PERMALINK

Yes, let's not forget phonics!

Shouldn't all good little trolls be in church right now?

Posted by: Kenji on October 13, 2006 at 2:43 PM | PERMALINK

The evangelical version of "Aw, fuck it," is "Aw, fuck it." Evangelicals are essentially just plain folks.

Posted by: Ace Franze on October 13, 2006 at 2:45 PM | PERMALINK

The GOP stragegy has come down to:

1. We may really really really really suck, but the Democrats are suckier!

and

2. Democrats are going to raise your* taxes.

3. Booga Booga!

your = Someone making over 200K/Year.

Posted by: Robert on October 13, 2006 at 2:53 PM | PERMALINK

This information is a bit outdated, but anyone who feels like doing more than five seconds of Googling can update:

Northeast-Midwest Institute Reports on Federal Spending by State:
Despite small improvements, Northeast and Midwest regions lag behind the South and West in terms of dollars returned to states from taxes sent to Washington, according to a report issued by the Northeast-Midwest Institute.

The Northeast-Midwest regions return on every tax dollar was $0.88, while the South received an estimated $1.18 in federal spending for every dollar sent to Washington and the West had a return of $1.01, according to Flow of Federal Funds to the States: Fiscal 1999.

Other highlights include:

The Northeast-Midwest region made up 40.36 percent of the nations population but had 44.61 percent of the nations total tax burden, and received 39.20 percent of the 50-state federal spending total in fiscal 1999. In 1999, the South and West, with 59.64 percent of the population, paid 55.39 percent of federal taxes, and received back 60.80 percent of federal spending.

The Northeast-Midwest region received $575.9 billion in federal funding, or $5,243 per capita, in fiscal 1999. This per-capita amount equals 97 percent of the 50-state per-capita level of $5,397, one percentage point lower than in fiscal 1998. By comparison, the South and West received $893.1 billion, or $5,502 per capita, in fiscal 1999 equal to 102 percent of the national level.

Of the $1.788 trillion the federal government collected in taxes in fiscal 1999, $797.5 billion came from the Northeast-Midwest, and $990.3 billion from the South and West. But on a per-person basis, the Northeast-Midwest regions share of $7,261 represented 111 percent of the 50-state per-capita figure of $6,569 and the Northeasts fiscal 1999 share stood at $7,914 on a per-capita basis, which amounts to 120 percent of the national figure. Both the South and West had lower-than-average per capita amounts of $5,800 and $6,474, respectively.

The 10 states with the highest return in fiscal 1999 were New Mexico, Montana, West Virginia, Mississippi, North Dakota, Alaska, Virginia, Hawaii, South Dakota, and Alabama.

The top 10 states with the lowest return on their federal tax dollar in fiscal 1999 included: Connecticut, New Jersey, New Hampshire, Nevada, Illinois, Minnesota, Michigan, Delaware, Wisconsin, and New York.

The data used in the Northeast-Midwest Institutes analysis were drawn primarily from Federal Expenditures by State for Fiscal Year 1999, published by the U.S. Bureau of the Census, and Special Report: 1999 Federal Tax Burdens and Expenditures by State, published by the Tax Foundation.

The Institutes report analyzes federal spending patterns in the Northeast-Midwest and other regions of the country, and includes data tables for all 50 states. The report is available electronically on the Internet at http://www.nemw.org/fedspending.htm.

Posted by: Stefan on October 13, 2006 at 2:59 PM | PERMALINK

Why? Like most people, I have a job where I can't listen to the radio, so I really don't have much time in my day for talk radio, just the morning and after work.

Where I live (NYC) Rush Limbaugh is on from Noon-3 and Sean Hannity is on from 3-6. This is the #1 media market in the country.

Most people with white collar jobs can't listen to the radio all day. Noon-6 is prime work and commuting hours. Maybe you catch the tail end of Hannity driving home if you live in the burbs.

I find it real, real curious that these two "heavy hitters" are not on at 8PM and 10PM, like prime-time TV shows. Or even at 7AM, like Howard Stern. The majority of middle-class office workers just can't listen to them, ever. Maybe they can grab a podcast.

So, who's listening to these guys? The elderly, the retired, college students, and the self-employed. Exactly who you would expect from their advertisers.

Posted by: Alderaan on October 13, 2006 at 3:01 PM | PERMALINK

Newsflash for Al, Chicken, Thomas1 and the rest of the New Pravda crowd: It's over!

Your guys are tanking, and the only way for them to survive will be to cheat harder than they ever did before, which will make the electorate even angrier than they are already. A majority of observant Christians don't like these lying sacks of shit, and the rest outright hate them.

So are you going to help clean up the mess or go to your graves believing the rest of America was crazy and that only you got it right? You may pretend that common sense has a liberal bias. (Poor widdle Bushie, both houses of congress, the supreme court and Rupert Murdoch just can't break through the power of the big, bad media!) But common sense doesn't care about your delusions.

You bootlickers are not just fools, you are something much, much worse: incredibly boring fools.

Come back, tbrosz. All is forgiven!

Posted by: Kenji on October 13, 2006 at 3:08 PM | PERMALINK

Speaking of Kuo's book, I thought Amy Sullivan did a good job on Scarborough Country last night.

Posted by: Andy on October 13, 2006 at 3:12 PM | PERMALINK

For Democrats, this is the best polling news since the exit polls of 2004.

Posted by: Yancey Ward on October 13, 2006 at 3:31 PM | PERMALINK

Come back, tbrosz. All is forgiven!

Well, just because other posters are more dishonest than tbrosz is hardly a reason to pine for his return, but I will say that, predictably contrarian as he was, tbrosz was rarely boring, and at least capable of debating honestly, if he most often chose not to.

I've been greatly pleased over the past couple of years at our resident Republican apologists picking up the torch from ol' tbroz and demonstrating that there is no honest means of defending the GOP's mendacity, incompetence and corruption.

Posted by: Gregory on October 13, 2006 at 4:00 PM | PERMALINK

I fear a Democratic win in November. The millions of exploding wingnut heads are sure to send the planet hurtling into the sun.
Posted by: enozinho (wetorture.com) on October 13, 2006 at 1:23 PM | PERMALINK

Never mind their heads - how about their trucks loaded with fuel-oil and fertilizer? The Tim McVeighs of America will be out in-force, blowing up government buildings. . .

Posted by: Osama_Been_Forgotten on October 13, 2006 at 4:03 PM | PERMALINK

Diebold, bitches!

Posted by: Karl Rove on October 13, 2006 at 4:19 PM | PERMALINK

Absentee ballots, asshole!

Posted by: Angry Voter on October 13, 2006 at 4:23 PM | PERMALINK

"2. Democrats are going to raise your* taxes.

your = Someone making over 200K/Year."

This highlights the strength of Republicans- that they could make people on the low and middling end of the economic spectrum identify with positions that greatly benefit wealthy Americans (with little or no benefit for themselves), for instance complete repeal of the estate tax and tax cuts for the very wealthy.

Posted by: on October 13, 2006 at 4:29 PM | PERMALINK

Absentee ballots, asshole!
Posted by: Angry Voter on October 13, 2006 at 4:23 PM | PERMALINK

I wonder if one could SELL one's vote to George Soros via absentee ballot?

Posted by: Karl Rove on October 13, 2006 at 5:12 PM | PERMALINK

Why the hell shouldn't the left clean up a little? Violate some Rovian sense of "fair play" or summthin'?

Posted by: Angry Voter on October 13, 2006 at 5:15 PM | PERMALINK

i don't think its a good assumption that a majority of church goers will hold their nose and vote republican. you need to assess the possibilities of why the polling is so different. one could surmise that many churchers have been uncomnfortable with the republican endless war as first, last, and only resort. But as long as republicans had what the churchers felt were legitimate motives they put up with the death and destruction (after all their religion makes plenty of allowances for same).

But now with the undeniable evidence of republican lying them into illegal unnecessary war, combined with the republican immoral push for using and legalizing torture, they are getting pushed over the top where republican war making and depravity is out weighing their negative perceptions of the democrat acceptance of tolerance and choice.

my guess would be that stay home will be the majority option (they won't be able to get over their forced birthing domination crusade to actually vote dem. and help to preserve and improve life here on earth).
.

Posted by: WWJD on October 13, 2006 at 6:17 PM | PERMALINK

kevin, good title, the flock moving out of bondage.

Posted by: yowzer on October 13, 2006 at 6:20 PM | PERMALINK
Replace with, replace with, and replace with. Now you've got a true statement.... sportsfan79 at 1:56 PM
Whoa there, fella; just replace Bush with a rational human being and all your replacing tasks will be simpler.
... the best polling news since the exit polls of 2004.Yancey Ward at 3:31 PM
According to Republicans, exit polls in the Ukraine are accurate, those in the US are biased for Democrats.

These evangelicals aren't exactly red letter christians and are accustomed to ignoring empirical evidence in favor of RNC spin.

Posted by: Mike on October 13, 2006 at 6:59 PM | PERMALINK

"I hate the fact that we still consider some voters 'white' and some 'black'."

Since those are self-identification, shouldn't you say that you hate the fact that some voters still consider themselves "white" while some consider themselves "black"?

I don't think most people identify themselves as "white voters" or "black voters" -- thank goodness. They do, however, consider themselves voters and in this, they are correct. Race has no place in politics in a democracy.

Posted by: Pothique on October 13, 2006 at 7:17 PM | PERMALINK

Poithique:

That's what you call a normative argument.

Normative arguments, along with $1.70, will get you a coup of coffee at Starbucks -- and maybe a pleasant morning conversation with a formerly idealistic but currently cynical yuppie (who doesn't vote) who agrees wholeheartedly with that sentiment.

Bob

Posted by: rmck1 on October 14, 2006 at 1:46 AM | PERMALINK

I'm not a regular churchgoer, but I've already conceded on this forum that I'm going to vote for Heath Schuler [despite the fact that he seems to be a Fred Flinstone impersonator] and against Charlie Taylor in my district -- and I'm the Minion of Rove! All I can say is wait till next year... You guys may carry Foley's district or Melissa Bean or whoever this time - but after two years of jumping from the frying pan into the fire the voters will blow you out in '08.

You do have one chance though... It's been said that the true measure of a political victory is how much you've changed your opposition. I would have no hesitation to voting for Harold Ford if I lived 25 miles from here, or for most of the "agents for change" you've put up this time. If this election causes a revolution against the nutroots' heroes [i.e., your party's "leadership"] by the new freshmen that get elected to your caucus then I think our defeat might serve some purpose.

Posted by: minion of rove on October 14, 2006 at 9:57 AM | PERMALINK

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Posted by: LERY on October 14, 2006 at 11:32 AM | PERMALINK

Such polls do not matter. What I want to see is the results of a poll of electronic voting machine technicians. Who do they want to win? I'll bet that poll, if honestly answered, would most closely match the eventual results.

Posted by: josef on October 14, 2006 at 12:30 PM | PERMALINK

Why does Kevin think that "All others" now means "blacks"? Has he just forgotten about the nation's Latinos, Asians, Pacific Islanders, Native Americans, etc...

Posted by: Bernard on October 14, 2006 at 12:53 PM | PERMALINK

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Posted by: df on October 16, 2006 at 8:42 AM | PERMALINK




 

 

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