October 18, 2006
SURPRISE!....Ezra Klein thinks we should take conspiracy theories more seriously. Tom Engelhardt obliges after learning that the special tribunal in Iraq has scheduled the verdict in the Saddam Hussein trial for November 5:
A possible death-sentence for Saddam and his top lieutenants on November 5? Now, shouldn't that raise a few eyebrows somewhere? If you happen to have a calendar close at hand, pull it over and take a quick look. That verdict would then come, curiously enough, just two days before the midterm elections. It's the sort of thing that you would think that any reporter with knowledge of the US election cycle (no less of how Karl Rove has worked these last years) would at least note in an article. But no, you can search high and low without finding a reference to this in the mainstream media.
OK, let's put it to a vote: is this (a) a nutbar conspiracy theory, or (b) entirely likely considering the folks who are running the country these days?
And remember: Just because you're paranoid doesn't mean they aren't out to get you!
—Kevin Drum 6:28 PM
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Completely shameless.
Completely consistent.
Posted by: Osama_Been_Forgotten on October 18, 2006 at 6:31 PM | PERMALINK
(b)
Posted by: rea on October 18, 2006 at 6:33 PM | PERMALINK
Bush and Cheney are soley and only committed to Freedom and Democracy! And saving blastocysts -- I mean, BABIES!!! They would NEVER manipulate anything!
I know that the world will be SO MUCH BETTER OFF with Saddam killed! That makes it all worthwhile!
Posted by: Al's Mommy on October 18, 2006 at 6:34 PM | PERMALINK
Just given random chance, you would expect certain events favorable to either party to occur near to the election. I don't know enough about the course of this trial to know whether its schedule was open to influence from people we had influence on
Obviously if this was a case of timing, it was done in a very precise and calculated manner. If someone could explain who would have the means to arrange things in such a way, I'd be much more likely to believe we did play a part
Posted by: crayz on October 18, 2006 at 6:36 PM | PERMALINK
Caveat - won't the verdict just set off a huge new wave of violence that could rebound against GOP chances? Not sure this is a sure bet as a positive.
In any case, the US public has gone far beyond Sadaam - this just reminds them that the price paid wasn't worth it.
Posted by: hopeless pedant on October 18, 2006 at 6:37 PM | PERMALINK
OK, let's put it to a vote: is this (a) a nutbar conspiracy theory, or (b) entirely likely considering the folks who are running the country these days?
Another nutbar conspiracy theory coming from the same people who constantly scream DIEBOLD! everytime they lose a election.
Posted by: Al on October 18, 2006 at 6:42 PM | PERMALINK
The answer is (c)
It's probably a coincidence. But God has been having so much fun watching us deal with George, you can hardly blame him.
Posted by: enozinho (wetorture.com) on October 18, 2006 at 6:43 PM | PERMALINK
"If someone could explain who would have the means to arrange things in such a way,"
Oh come on! Who could have the means to schedule training exercises for the US air defence such that no fighters were available to intercept highjacked aircraft at precisely the time that they were needed? Events at this scale do not happen by chance. There is way the hell to much money and criminal culpability involved. Have you not figured out yet why "only the good die young"?
Posted by: Redacted on October 18, 2006 at 6:44 PM | PERMALINK
I am more worried about honest elections. Surely the Republicans won't trot out the diebold virus unless they are in the margin of error, but what about disenfranchising a lot of folks in Ohio and a couple of other close states? Is that possible?
Executing Saddam on November 5? So what?
Posted by: Ron Byers on October 18, 2006 at 6:46 PM | PERMALINK
I don't see how this could benefit the republicans. The war is already going badly and having Sadaam in the news again so close to election would only remind the voters of fiasco of the war.
Posted by: DJShay on October 18, 2006 at 6:46 PM | PERMALINK
The only sensible decision is to let him off, but with a warning that if he ever does it again....
Posted by: buddy66 on October 18, 2006 at 6:47 PM | PERMALINK
The very fact that the date on which the verdict is to be issued has already been specified strikes me as odd. American courts certainly don't work that way; there might be a rough calendar, but the judge and jury aren't given set times to deliberate.
Posted by: Joe Buck on October 18, 2006 at 6:47 PM | PERMALINK
Most Americans, if polling data is to believed, now understand that we went into Iraq on lies, and that Saddam had nothing to do with 9/11. Therefore, whether Saddam is sentenced in November or next Spring it will not affect those peoples' views at the polls. The only people who will get a woody over the timing are those who still think Saddam was connected to 9/11 and that we found WMD in Iraq. Though the numbers are still too high, this seems to be a gradually diminishing percentage of Americans.
Posted by: JeffII on October 18, 2006 at 6:50 PM | PERMALINK
Oh come on! Christians wouldn't sentence anyone to death on a Sunday! Not even Saddam Hussein! Or even Osama bin what's-his-face....
Posted by: Betty Black on October 18, 2006 at 6:53 PM | PERMALINK
I assumed it was no coincidence as soon as I heard it. But my reaction was, so what? I think this falls within the realm of political maneuvering. I'd be disappointed if the Democrats had the ability to do something similar and didn't take it. We're certainly pleased with every Republican trial that takes place before election day (but then, there's so many to choose from.)
I'm just getting a little tired of hearing Democrats, especially the leadership, whining every time the Republicans "politicize" something. I think most voters see that as the way of the world, and aren't very impressed by the Dems' complaints.
Posted by: ChrisO on October 18, 2006 at 6:57 PM | PERMALINK
I don't see how this could benefit the republicans. The war is already going badly and having Sadaam in the news again so close to election would only remind the voters of fiasco of the war.
It isn't about winning over undecideds. It's about giving their base motivation to get to the polls.
Posted by: Disputo on October 18, 2006 at 6:58 PM | PERMALINK
It was also sheer coincidence that the American hostages held in Iran were held on President Depends' inauguration day.
Posted by: gregor on October 18, 2006 at 7:00 PM | PERMALINK
I'm just getting a little tired of hearing Democrats, especially the leadership, whining every time the Republicans "politicize" something. I think most voters see that as the way of the world, and aren't very impressed by the Dems' complaints.
Of course, "whining" about such actions are also part of the game, a part that the GOP plays as well.
Better trolls please.
Posted by: Disputo on October 18, 2006 at 7:02 PM | PERMALINK
Interesting question,
Where did Mark Foley get all his money?
http://cannonfire.blogspot.com/2006/10/foleys-freaky-funds.html
Posted by: cld on October 18, 2006 at 7:05 PM | PERMALINK
"Completely shameless.
Completely consistent."
QFT
Posted by: sheerahkahn on October 18, 2006 at 7:07 PM | PERMALINK
if thats the worst trick they can pull, I dont mind.
Posted by: JIMMY on October 18, 2006 at 7:09 PM | PERMALINK
It was also sheer coincidence that the American hostages held in Iran were held on President Depends' inauguration day.
You may have a point there. But I can't see it. I mean, the purple fingers at the State of the Union were stupefyingly delicious. But what are the Republicans going to do on Nov. 5, walk around with nooses on their necks?
Actually, I'd kind of like to see that.
Posted by: enozinho (wetorture.com) on October 18, 2006 at 7:10 PM | PERMALINK
My vote is not dependent on the outcome of the Saddam trial, but on who wins the World Series.
Posted by: Buck on October 18, 2006 at 7:11 PM | PERMALINK
DUDE
Totally planned for the election.
Just like the Baker Commission is planned after the election for minimal damage.
Posted by: yep on October 18, 2006 at 7:14 PM | PERMALINK
This is clearly the llast ditch effort for free airtime dominanace 48hrs before the election. It's an obvious play. A stupid one for sure. But obvious.
Posted by: patience on October 18, 2006 at 7:17 PM | PERMALINK
Put me in with the ennui crowd ...
Except for this:
Speaking of conspiracy theories, Ramsey Clark -- who we all know is one of Saddam's lawyers -- has said that if Saddam is executed, all hell is going to break loose in Iraq. The only thing not credible about that statement is the quite arguable point that all hell has *already* broken out in Iraq. But I suppose this, by itself, doesn't mean that things couldn't get even worse.
And, from what I understand, if he is sentenced to be hanged, they'll carry it out immediately. None of these American-style death row automatic appeal dealies.
So if they *execute* Saddam a day before the election and the violence goes into overdrive -- then this will be a net negative for the GOP. I agree with the person who said that all it will do is give the Talking Deads that much more reason to focus their attentions (and cameras) on the carnage in Bush's Execrable Misadventure.
Bob
Posted by: rmck1 on October 18, 2006 at 7:18 PM | PERMALINK
Entirely plausible that the date was set for political reasons, but incumbents have always had and used this capacity to set the agenda.
Posted by: Kevin_r on October 18, 2006 at 7:22 PM | PERMALINK
For those leftists whose grip on sanity is fragile on their best days, pretty much everything looks like a conspiracy. I'm sure there's quite a few at "The Nation" who fall into that category after many years of seeing their glorious Marxist ideals blow up in their faces.
You think it's crazy now, wait and see what happens if the Democrats don't win big in this election.
Posted by: monkeybone on October 18, 2006 at 7:26 PM | PERMALINK
So if they *execute* Saddam a day before the election and the violence goes into overdrive -- then this will be a net negative for the GOP.
Not if the Iraqis pull a Mussolini, which is highly-likely, and Saddam's due of course. I imagine a lot of people will just throw up their hands, conclude the Iraqis are animals, and Bush will be able to wash his hands of the whole thing.
Posted by: enozinho (wetorture.com) on October 18, 2006 at 7:27 PM | PERMALINK
The idea that they would shift the debate in order to *avoid* influencing a crucial election is ludicrous.
So I guess a reasonable question is, who scheduled this date, and when? And, given that sentencing dates often shift, has this one remained anomalously rock-steady?
Posted by: Miller on October 18, 2006 at 7:30 PM | PERMALINK
Just like the Baker Commission is planned after the election for minimal damage.
What's disgusting is the silence of the media and the pundits and the bloggers on the blatant cynicism of this time table. If the Baker commission's recommendations, presumably sound, are followed, and if the subsequent policies are eventually able to reduce the death toll of American soldiers, the kids who die in the interim would have died just because the Repubs would rather win some Congressional seats than worry about the lives of our soldiers.
Posted by: gregor on October 18, 2006 at 7:31 PM | PERMALINK
How's that saying go? I hate the way this government makes me feel like a nutbar conspiracy theorist.
Posted by: ckelly on October 18, 2006 at 7:32 PM | PERMALINK
enozinho:
I agree with all of that except the conclusion. Bush *can't* "throw up his hands at the whole thing," because to do so he'd absolutely tank his legacy.
He is tied to this tar baby. If the "they are animals" meme becomes CW -- all that does is further repudiate Bush's last remaining justification for the war.
Net result: GOP tanks.
They had better damn well hope and pray they execute him after the election ...
And if they do -- imagine the play it'll get on the Sunday pre-election news that holding the execution off a few days was part of a Bush-engineered election ploy ...
Bob
Posted by: rmck1 on October 18, 2006 at 7:32 PM | PERMALINK
(b) It is on a Sunday seven hours ahead of the East Coast, meaning the Sunday and Monday papers literal a day and two before an election will be blaring headlines about Saddam (Arab Hitler) is goint to be executed. Every piece of news like this gives Bush a bump (go back and look at his approval ratings immediately following Saddam's capture, when the heady high of the invasion had started to wear off). I would listen to the news sometimes and hear about how Saddam's trial was literally crawling along. Nothing ever seemed to be happening and I wondered why it was taking so long. The bump from this will be far more marginal than from Saddam's capture, but many an election this year is going to be won at the margins.
It is very, very smart politics. And it is completely naive to think that the US government couldn't push the Iraqi government into setting this up.
One last note. For the first time ever last week I saw an ad from our Department of Homeland Security targeting families to get their kids prepared for a terrorist attack (see www.ready.gov). The essence of the ad was to scare the crap out of the viewer about terrorism. Why am I seeing that for the first time, a toss-up district in Indiana right before elections? I can't imagine, but I would definitely like to see a reporter digging into it.
Diebold is crap. This is very real. And very smart.
Posted by: dynamicinfo on October 18, 2006 at 7:33 PM | PERMALINK
There's an interesting thought.
What if Saddam is busted out of jail, dramatically, just in the nick of time?
Who can blame the Republicans for accidentally transferring a few key guards just at the right moment?
Posted by: cld on October 18, 2006 at 7:34 PM | PERMALINK
I was wondering what was going to take people so long to start commenting on this. I don't think there can be much doubt who's behind this and why. Having said that, do you really think this is going to drive Bush's approval ratings up? At this point, it could very well have the opposite effect, making everyone aware of a war that by now most of the country is upset at. I mean, what difference will Hussein's death sentence have on the war anway? Does anyone in Iraq even really care about him anymore now that his sons are dead? The American people know this, so I don't see it having a big effect. Only Bin-Laden's capture or some terrorist attack or a Democrat in bed with a dead boy could change this election for the Republicans.
Posted by: Guscat on October 18, 2006 at 7:35 PM | PERMALINK
George Bush has declared this to be National Character Counts Week.
Honest.
Posted by: cld on October 18, 2006 at 7:37 PM | PERMALINK
dynamicinfo:
Not if the Sunni go apeshit and start blowing things up in protest of the verdict.
All it will do is to remind Americans that this war was a mistake. There was a bump after his capture, because 1) a lot of people thought he had a big hand in directing the insurgency (we were fighting an insurgency then, not stepping between sides in a civil war) and 2) a lot more people believed at that time that Saddam was involved in 9/11.
My things have changed in the intervening years ...
My read: No bump at all. Maybe a dip. If this was a political ploy, it is the mother of all Hail Mary passes.
Bob
Posted by: rmck1 on October 18, 2006 at 7:38 PM | PERMALINK
Sportsfans, Don't Fail to Miss,
that three hour upcoming extravaganza on prime time all-network, including cable Monday, November the 6th of:
"THE EXECUTION OF SADDAM HUSSEIN"
Brought to you by the National Republican Party.
Benediction by Jerry Falwell, Choral by the Mormon Tabernacle Choir, the Charlie Daniels Band and Ted Nugent.
Master of Ceremonies - King George II
Choreographer - Karl Rove
Remember, Don't Fail to Miss.
Posted by: thethirdPaul on October 18, 2006 at 7:42 PM | PERMALINK
What if he's acquitted or there's a mistrial? Not that I think he's not guilty as hell, but can you imagine everyone going to the polls with "the Repubs started this stupid war and couldn't even convict the guy" on their mind.
Posted by: Adventuregeek on October 18, 2006 at 7:43 PM | PERMALINK
wait and see what happens if the Democrats don't win big in this election.
If?
A wingnut who acknowledges that there is a chance the Dems will win big?
Now *that* is *news*!
Posted by: Disputo on October 18, 2006 at 7:43 PM | PERMALINK
John McCain is such a steaming bowl of sheer crap it's a miracle he doesn't just collapse into a pile of discorporate ooze.
Posted by: cld on October 18, 2006 at 7:45 PM | PERMALINK
I am more worried about honest elections. Surely the Republicans won't trot out the diebold virus unless they are in the margin of error, but what about disenfranchising a lot of folks in Ohio and a couple of other close states? Is that possible?
Posted by: Ron Byers on October 18, 2006 at 6:46 PM
I'm with you, Ron. I sure hope the State Dem committee's are looking into this in all 50 states. There were problems like this before, in TN, FL, GA (that made the media anyway) and I don't think it's going away in the hot race coming up. This isn't 'tinfoil hat' stuff atall.
Thanks to cld for pointing this item out over on the other thread. [hat tip]
Posted by: Otolaryx on October 18, 2006 at 7:46 PM | PERMALINK
Anyone out there who hasn't been swayed by the misteps and misdeeds of this gang of thugs over the past six years doesn't need this verdict to provide a difference in the way they would vote...they're already SO SNOWED that they'd vote for these guys if they killed their children in front of them! I continue to fight against any optomism that things will be changed...that meaning that DEMS will get even control of ONE HOUSE..."FOOL ME ONCE...."
Posted by: Dancer on October 18, 2006 at 7:49 PM | PERMALINK
The Saddam verdict two days before the election is not an accident. This is straight from Turd Blossom's playbook.
But the ploy won't work this time and may backfire. The verdict is in the "duh" category and manipulating its announcement will only call attention to the Iraq war, which is a losing proposition for the GOP.
Posted by: raul on October 18, 2006 at 7:50 PM | PERMALINK
One last note. For the first time ever last week I saw an ad from our Department of Homeland Security targeting families to get their kids prepared for a terrorist attack (see www.ready.gov). The essence of the ad was to scare the crap out of the viewer about terrorism. Why am I seeing that for the first time, a toss-up district in Indiana right before elections? I can't imagine, but I would definitely like to see a reporter digging into it.
And yet here in New York, where we've actually had a terrorist attack, we haven't had any of those ads -- I'm sure the fact that New York is a solid Democratic area has nothing to do with it...
Posted by: Stefan on October 18, 2006 at 7:57 PM | PERMALINK
My read: No bump at all. Maybe a dip. If this was a political ploy, it is the mother of all Hail Mary passes.
Maybe after his execution, they'll release a portion of Saddam's last statement, where he thanks Bill Clinton for all of his support and encouragement over the years.
Posted by: Nemo on October 18, 2006 at 7:59 PM | PERMALINK
This is semi-OT, but I thought some of you would like to know that Riverbend is back after being silent since early August.
Posted by: enozinho (wetorture.com) on October 18, 2006 at 8:08 PM | PERMALINK
enozinho:
Awesome ! I was getting pretty worried ...
Thanks, eno. I'm going to check her out right now.
Bob
Posted by: rmck1 on October 18, 2006 at 8:10 PM | PERMALINK
From the point of view of an Iraqi,
I wonder what they think when their Iraqi judicial system is simply a puppet of the current US WH occupants? Wouldn't that kind of throw mud on the entire idea of the Iraqis trying their own dictator? In fact, I can imagine that any Iraqi would be upset and would say to themselves, well, might as well have let the morons in the US try Saddam.
I mean, wouldn't we be justifiably upset if, say, the OJ sentencing had been "scheduled" to benefit another countrys pompinjays?
Posted by: Sky-Ho on October 18, 2006 at 8:11 PM | PERMALINK
Right. Riverbend, the only blogger in Iraq if you go by the posts here.
Try Iraq the Model, who has been blogging steadily this whole time.
Posted by: bart on October 18, 2006 at 8:14 PM | PERMALINK
bart:
STFU, troll.
Riverbend was gone for two and a half months. Many of us were worried about her safety.
Bob
Posted by: rmck1 on October 18, 2006 at 8:17 PM | PERMALINK
Bart: I only mentioned Riverbend because I was worried about her safety, ok? How about Zayed at Healing Iraq? Is he acceptable? He supported the war. Until his cousin was thrown into the Tigris by a couple of our soldiers. He had a close friend killed last week. Maybe you want to take a look at his comment section. Maybe call him a raghead like everyone else.
Posted by: enozinho (wetorture.com) on October 18, 2006 at 8:22 PM | PERMALINK
The last I checked, the trial is still progressing. Who schedules a verdict before you finish with testimony? Obviously the fix is in.
Reading about the testimony so far, is there anything that Saddam did that has not been advocated numerous times as the best thing to do in Iraq by right wingers? Just asking.
Posted by: Th on October 18, 2006 at 8:23 PM | PERMALINK
"A possible death-sentence for Saddam and his top lieutenants on November 5? Now, shouldn't that raise a few eyebrows somewhere?" - Kevin
Why.........does that make the left look bad or something?
Oh and I must have missed the apology extended to the administration for convicting them prematurely in the leaking of the name of Americas "most covert double secret agent spy". But I am sure it's out there.
Posted by: Jay on October 18, 2006 at 8:23 PM | PERMALINK
Jay:
How are those poll numbers looking for ya?
Bob
Posted by: rmck1 on October 18, 2006 at 8:25 PM | PERMALINK
Don't count your chickens before they hatch Bob.
The Democrats should know that by now.
Either way, I encourage everyone to vote.
Posted by: Jay on October 18, 2006 at 8:29 PM | PERMALINK
I'm just tryin' to figure out the sequence - Saddam first, then a new Osama video; or Osama video first, then Saddam? I'm leaning towards Osama first, sometime Friday before the election, so that Sunday will be Boogie Man Sunday ... probably a cancelled NFL game or two, perhaps Ohio?? Then Saddam on the 5th ...
Posted by: loaferboss on October 18, 2006 at 8:30 PM | PERMALINK
loaferboss:
Or perhaps a newly-discovered video from pre '03 that shows Saddam and Osama together, shaking hands and having one of those famed Arabic insult-duels, only targeting George Bush and not each other ...
The CIA just found it in one of those boxes of stuff they removed from Saddam's Intelligence Ministry, honest they did ...
Bob
Posted by: rmck1 on October 18, 2006 at 8:36 PM | PERMALINK
Why does it matter? That's the October suprise? Ha. They're gonna need a lot more than that.
Posted by: Rob W on October 18, 2006 at 8:37 PM | PERMALINK
"a cancelled NFL game or two"
Funny, but a few minutes ago both CNN and MSNBC spoke of alleged threats against several NFL sites. Of course Homeland Insecurity said that it probably is a not to worry moment, but that they had to tell the public.
Don't know about FAUX as they had the "Dumb and Dumber" program airing. Shrub and O'Arrogante schmoozing - this is where Shrub tells him that it is "illogical" for anyone to question his Iraqi policies. Bill, playing Capt Kirk responded...
Posted by: thethirdPaul on October 18, 2006 at 8:39 PM | PERMALINK
TheThirdPauL:
You mean they forgot to mention the part about threats against upcoming NASCAR events?
Bob
Posted by: rmck1 on October 18, 2006 at 8:41 PM | PERMALINK
IS SADDAM'S FUTURE ON AN UPTICK ?
Who has gotten rid of Saddam? No one has gotten rid of Saddam.
As conventional wisdom begins to masticate a Tri-Part Iraq, which oddly was a plan first proffered forcibly by a Democrat, someone had better think through a couple of the moving parts and their all too likely consequences.
To wit, the Shia portion of the Tri-Part solution will come to rule with a component of Theocracy and a component of brutality, i.e. force under arms. The Kurds will continue with their existing autonomous political and military structure.
Arms and brutality will also, absolutely, have to be a component of the nascent Sunni Tri-Part element. What will this element look like? Who will be its leaders?
If this Tri-Part element is to be wholly Sunni it follows, as night follows day, that the previous in-control Baathist leaders, presently called insurgents, will gain or regain enormous sway.
If you wish to envision a scene of unimaginable incompetency and failure then simply follow the consequences of allowing a nationalistic Sunni entity to reform.
Saddam lives. He is now neutered. But if by some act of Kafkaesque incompetency the Sunnis reform politically he may again become a source of influence. If this transition from today's abject failure in Iraq to tomorrow's "Experiment To Win" plan is botched it may become politically impossible to execute Saddam.
That Saddam is no longer in power is the only surviving justification for the GOP's devastatingly inept and costly adventure in Iraq.
If Osama remains on the loose and it becomes impossible to execute Saddam the only word which will describe this administrations' foreign policy legacy is grotesque.
Summary:
You got to string up Saddam before allowing the Sunnis to reform.
Caution:
If one thinks that the streets of Baghdad are dangerous now. Just wait til' Saddam's scheduled execution rolls around. Frankly, I think the Shia/US government will find themselves lacking the cojones to kill Saddam. Bushco has screwed this up so bad that it is unimagineable.
Posted by: cognitorex on October 18, 2006 at 8:43 PM | PERMALINK
"...a few minutes ago both CNN and MSNBC spoke of alleged threats against several NFL sites."
Anyone know where Thomas1 was at the time?
Posted by: enozinho (wetorture.com) on October 18, 2006 at 8:45 PM | PERMALINK
If the republican october surprise consists of convincing people to pay more attention to Iraq the democrats should be high fiving each other.
Posted by: Tlaloc on October 18, 2006 at 8:50 PM | PERMALINK
Coincidence? You gotta be kidding!
Posted by: petersonny on October 18, 2006 at 8:58 PM | PERMALINK
rmck1: If this was a political ploy, it is the mother of all Hail Mary passes.
That about sums it up for me. I don't really believe there's a conspiracy. Contrary to most people, I don't think the Repubs are all that they're cracked up to be. I mean, look at the bang up job they've done in Iraq so far!
On the other hand, if I were to discover that it were true, I sadly wouldn't be at all surprised. I'd just hope voters are smarter than the Repubs give them credit for for being.
Posted by: AndrewBW on October 18, 2006 at 9:02 PM | PERMALINK
Eno - I just posted about the return of Riverbend. Since you put up the link, I don't have too.
Posted by: Global Citizen on October 18, 2006 at 9:03 PM | PERMALINK
Hey Jay - ever figure out the difference between an atomic bomb and a nuclear one?
And son, if you are going to call me something other than my screen name, take a page from Norman's book. "global idiot" is just lame. But "Hormonal Citizen" - now that has the added bonus of being true.
Thanks in advance.
Posted by: Global Citizen on October 18, 2006 at 9:11 PM | PERMALINK
Yeah, Houston's Reliant Stadium was one of the sites announced for the supposed dirty nuke attack this Sunday.
Well, I'm rooting for the terrorists as it does no good to root for the Texans.
We had a chance to grab Reggie Bush, but the Texan brain trust choose Mario Williams. Our offense is less effective than an Iraqi neighborhood watch.
Dirty bomb? Bring it!
Posted by: Keith G on October 18, 2006 at 9:18 PM | PERMALINK
I don't think it matters whether the sentencing is timed for the US elections or not.
US casualties have sharply increased. Iraq is in a civil war. I'm not even sure how much of an impact Saddam's sentencing will have on Iraqis, who have "moved on," so to speak - to killing one another in greater numbers than Saddam did.
Anyone who isn't a Bushbot has to wonder if turning Iraq into a killing ground was worth the US lives lost there.
Sentencing Saddam won't change that.
Posted by: CaseyL on October 18, 2006 at 9:23 PM | PERMALINK
It might be worth pointing out that none of the previous court appearances have taken place on a Sunday.
(What is the weekend, in Iraq, anyhow? I'd assume it'd start with Friday, which as I understand is a day of prayer for devout Muslims similar to the Sabbath; but if it includes Sunday that'd be a long weekend every week ...)
Posted by: Warren Terra on October 18, 2006 at 9:33 PM | PERMALINK
Let's consider the words of Riverbend. Afterall, she does have to live with the fallout from the actions perpetrated in our name every day, and has for the last three and a half years:
Let's pretend the 600,000+ number is all wrong and that the minimum is the correct number: nearly 400,000. Is that better? Prior to the war, the Bush administration kept claiming that Saddam killed 300,000 Iraqis over 24 years. After this latest report published in The Lancet, 300,000 is looking quite modest and tame. Congratulations Bush et al.
Posted by: Global Citizen on October 18, 2006 at 9:36 PM | PERMALINK
Of course the timing of the Saddam sentencing is intended to boost Bush's fortunes. Every official in the Iraqi government, Al-Maliki included, is aware that they are expected to be trotted out as PR exhibits to aid the GOP in elections. This message has been communicated loud and clear since the early days of the CPA. It's not necessary at this stage for anybody in the US to issue orders or make requests. The Iraqis running the trial know it's basically a PR exercise to help their friendly GOP "clan" in the US, and they're not going to miss an opportunity to do a favor for their sponsors.
Posted by: brooksfoe on October 18, 2006 at 9:37 PM | PERMALINK
Apparently Rove wanted George to fly to Baghdad and fire the coups de grace bullet into Saddam's head ala the infamous photograph from Viet Nam.
However, he was concerned that Saddam might say Boo to George.
Wetting pants can be so unseemly to despots.
Posted by: thethirdPaul on October 18, 2006 at 9:38 PM | PERMALINK
Tonight on Larry King, Chris Rock's Mom ignored for 30 minutes. Outrage!
Posted by: cld on October 18, 2006 at 9:54 PM | PERMALINK
Saddam's life will be spared. This is the only way to ensure that things don't go totally ballistic (vs. every-day ballistic). If Saddam is sentenced to death, so should Rumsfeld, as he negotiated an arms deal in the 1980's with Saddam and his regime. If Saddam is sentenced to death, the Sunni's will kill hundreds or thousands of Shiites on the same day, and the headline in the NYT will read "Bush's Iraq Policies Kills Hundreds on Eve of Election". Rove and Bush will never recover.
Posted by: Mr. Wu on October 18, 2006 at 10:02 PM | PERMALINK
Two questions: could they? and if they could, would they?
The first question is the higher hurdle, but it's no stretch to imagine that the Bush admin could influence the Saddam trial in such a way.
And of course if Bush & co are able to do something, there's no basis for putting it past them. Not that it will probably matter, but it might have if a GOP bloodbath weren't so inevitbable.
Posted by: kth on October 18, 2006 at 10:02 PM | PERMALINK
If this is Rove's October surprise, say hello to speaker Pelosi.
Posted by: Mike on October 18, 2006 at 10:11 PM | PERMALINK
kth, there is no need for Rove or anyone in the Admin to have gotten personally involved here. The Iraqis involved in this trial by this time are taking such steps on their own. They think of themselves as political allies of the GOP.
Posted by: brooksfoe on October 18, 2006 at 10:13 PM | PERMALINK
Heh - Turdie will be screwed if the "dead enders" manage to assassinate Saddam's judge on Nov 4th.
Posted by: osama_been_forgotten on October 18, 2006 at 10:15 PM | PERMALINK
I just pray to God that another large-scale terrorist attack doesn't occur while George W. Bush is President. We know what will happen - He will sit staring into space for seven minutes, like he did on 9-11, and then go hide in a cornfield in Nebraska. The man is an abject coward, he cannot think on his feet and he is incapable of making sound and prudent judgments.
Bush has demonstrated and we have seen on film, how reacts in a moment of national crisis and he failed miserably.
This country is in great, great danger every second this man is in the White House...
Posted by: The Conservative Deflator on October 18, 2006 at 10:16 PM | PERMALINK
it seems to me that if the republicans can get air time for questioning why democrats put their Foley dirty trick de[ite the fact that the scandal was created by, covered up and AND released by republicans - I think it is legitimate to ask about the timing of a guilty verdict for Saddam 2 days before a US warrenterra election.
Posted by: paul on October 18, 2006 at 10:22 PM | PERMALINK
b
Posted by: adhocheretic on October 18, 2006 at 10:36 PM | PERMALINK
Every official in the Iraqi government, Al-Maliki included, is aware that they are expected to be trotted out as PR exhibits to aid the GOP in elections.
In theory, maybe. But.
tensions played out today when the Maliki government demanded that the American military command release a senior aide to Mr. Sadr who had been captured on Tuesday on suspicion of attacking American forces and of directing kidnappings, killings and torture of Sunni Arabs and Shiites.
The American military command provided no explanation for the release of the aide, Sheik Mazin al-Saedi, except to say it was in response to a request by the Iraqi government.
If this was reported more vigorously by the press or amplified by the Democrats this story would serve as a painful oracle about our bleak future in Iraq.
Posted by: Keith G on October 18, 2006 at 10:41 PM | PERMALINK
Of course the date is intentional. This administration, which is so conscious of dates that they regularly schedule controversial actions on Friday afternoons when most people will miss them, is so desperate that they are not letting ANY opportunity pass them by.
Posted by: Ugg! on October 18, 2006 at 10:52 PM | PERMALINK
Keith - where did you find that? I heard it on the BBC and then couldn't find it on the web.
On my site, I have been getting some anonymous comments from soldiers. They are not happy. One posted in comments on a post about Cheney's visit to Ft. Campbell:
"We are nothing to him and the rest of the administration. Cannon fodder. A means to an end. Chumps...Please people - vote to stop these guys before they get a bunch more of us killed for nothing. 3000 is enough. The reasons aren't going to suddenly be righteous. Castrate them with a Democratic house and senate, for the love of all that is holy, stop them."
Not my words, but the words of a soldier from the legendary 101st Airborne.
Which troll wants to criticize the soldier who is doing your bidding?
Posted by: Global Citizen on October 18, 2006 at 10:55 PM | PERMALINK
unbelievable. you actually had to ask.
Posted by: virginia cynic on October 18, 2006 at 10:56 PM | PERMALINK
I found it by googling his name. Duh.
Posted by: Global Citizen on October 18, 2006 at 11:04 PM | PERMALINK
GC, I heard it on NPR and the quote I gave was buried in a story in the Times
The Grey Lady
Posted by: Keith G on October 18, 2006 at 11:08 PM | PERMALINK
Kill someone to draw attention away from their incompetence? Yeah. I wouldn't put it past them.
Posted by: parrot on October 18, 2006 at 11:26 PM | PERMALINK
Given the time difference, it should hit the news shortly before the Sunday Talk shows
Posted by: me on October 18, 2006 at 11:33 PM | PERMALINK
Off topic but I thought I'd post this as I just saw it.
From this article: Bush issues doctrine for US control of space
"'The United States will preserve its rights, capabilities, and freedom of action in space; dissuade or deter others from either impeding those rights or developing capabilities intended to do so; take actions necessary to protect its space capabilities; respond to interference; and deny, if necessary, adversaries the use of space capabilities hostile to US national interests,' the strategy says. "http://www.guardian.co.uk/space/article/0,,1925757,00.html
Get a load of the saber waving here. But why? I mean is there some other country right now declaring "By golly we OWN space and we are going to FIGHT for it?" So why the obnoxious/pugnacious tone? It's the kind of talk that instigated our current problems with North Korea. What, we don't have enough countries hating us already?
This administration just can't stop acting like some big dumb bully. Picking fights where none existed before.
Posted by: Sheesh! on October 18, 2006 at 11:37 PM | PERMALINK
Money can buy most anything and we know the Repugs have tons of money.
Posted by: Mazurka on October 18, 2006 at 11:39 PM | PERMALINK
One of these days maybe they will learn that cooperation get you farther than ME FIRST! isolationism.
Or maybe not.
Posted by: Sheesh! on October 18, 2006 at 11:40 PM | PERMALINK
b
Posted by: B on October 19, 2006 at 12:13 AM | PERMALINK
bring back saddam!
Posted by: kingspawn on October 19, 2006 at 1:34 AM | PERMALINK
The Chinese Thomas1:
"Cooperation" didn't work so well with Mao now, did it? I'm fine with "cooperation", up to a point. As for outer space, countries intent on impeding or interfering with Chinese space capabilities, what exactly is wrong with pre-empting that?! The US, and maybe others, are exploring that area, so I think it's better to make our position clear from the get go. And, I would hope my government is prepared to deny, if necessary, potential adversaries the use of space capabilities HOSTILE to our national interests. You would want otherwise? Sheesh!
And thus an arms race is born, and both sides end up less secure.
Classic Prisoner's Dilemma.
Posted by: floopmeister on October 19, 2006 at 1:35 AM | PERMALINK
The real October surprise may be saturation of the airwaves with swiftboat-style Republican ads:
And, in some ways, the campaign is just beginning, Mr. Rove added.
"For most Americans, particularly the marginal voters who are going to determine the outcome of the election, it started a couple weeks ago," he said. "Between now and the election, we will spend $100 million in target House and Senate races in the next 21 days."
Posted by: JS on October 19, 2006 at 1:39 AM | PERMALINK
Disputo
I'm a lifelong Democrat and currently precinct captain for Deval Patrick in Massachusetts. If you took time to actually read my post, you would have seen that I said that I would be disappointed if the Democrats didn't do the same thing. I think constantly whining about how the Republicans are politicizing things is bad strategy, because it doesn't resonate with the voters.
Everybody who criticizes the Democratic leadership isn't a troll, you moron.
Posted by: ChrisO on October 19, 2006 at 3:06 AM | PERMALINK
tensions played out today when the Maliki government demanded that the American military command release a senior aide to Mr. Sadr
Tit for tat. Maliki knows he can continue to get favors like this as long as he remains a crucial propaganda asset to the Administration.
Posted by: brooksfoe on October 19, 2006 at 3:26 AM | PERMALINK
So why the obnoxious/pugnacious tone?
Our President buys a Coke from the White House vending machine:
"The United States will assert its intention and its ability to obtain soft drinks from any area which it deems in its national interest to do so, and will move to forestall any hostile nation's capability to impede us from free and unlimited access to soft drinks. Our assertion of this right will not depend on the necessity of quenching our thirst, and we will not submit to any outside power's judgment regarding the need or wisdom of our decision to obtain a soft drink, but will acquire and ingest soft drinks as we desire, in accordance with the President's constitutional prerogatives as Commander-in-Chief. Additionally, we will defend our position as the preeminent consumer of soft drinks, and will forestall and deter any rivals who seek to challenge our dominance in the soft drink consumption sector."
It makes you want to take away his fucking soft drink and pop him one on the schnozz, dudn't it?
Posted by: brooksfoe on October 19, 2006 at 3:37 AM | PERMALINK
The post up thread about the militarization of space is not new news. I beleive PNAC alludes to it on their website and as far back as Reagan, the right-wingers have seen outer space as the next opportunity to build weapons of mass destruction (which God apparently wants only the U.S. to have and to use on people) and a chance to squander our tax dollars.
Can I get a voucher for every penny of my tax money they spend on the militarization of space???
Posted by: The Conservative Deflator on October 19, 2006 at 6:07 AM | PERMALINK
Malkin's Hot Air people say liberals are just consumers of conspiracy theories (a conspiracy of conspiracy consumption). And Malkin et al. are always right. (You see, liberals controlling tv programming and newscasts and reporting is fact. But conservative influence and control of the media? That is pure nuttery.)
So, this must be a) pure coincidence.
Posted by: tx bubba on October 19, 2006 at 7:48 AM | PERMALINK
Watch, when they make him try the glove on...
since he's not the real Saddam, it won't fit.
Whoo-haa!
Since jr bush has now killed more Iraqis that Saddam ever did, why can't we just put him (SH) back in power to clean the place up? I bet the lights will be on in 72 hrs.
Posted by: bushwahd on October 19, 2006 at 8:12 AM | PERMALINK
I am a little surprised that there has been so little comment on just how orchestrated the whole "show trial" has been: judges who seemed too friendly to the defense have been immediately yanked off the case by political leadership under direction fromthe American occupiers. While we all know Saddam was a nasty piece of work, the actual testimony against him at the trial was not so very strong. This whole episode will eventually be seen as a particularly striking example of a kangaroo court. Just another knife rending America's tradition of fair play and respect for a fair trial.
Posted by: della Rovere on October 19, 2006 at 8:30 AM | PERMALINK
enozinho: "...a few minutes ago both CNN and MSNBC spoke of alleged threats against several NFL sites."
t1? perhaps....
more likely....
denny green
Posted by: mr. irony on October 19, 2006 at 9:03 AM | PERMALINK
rob w: Why does it matter? That's the October suprise? Ha. They're gonna need a lot more than that.
especially if someone reminds the media of one simple fact..
more americans have died in iraq..
since saddam was captured..
than in all his time in power..
Posted by: mr. irony on October 19, 2006 at 9:06 AM | PERMALINK
CONSPIRACY, PROBABLY.BUT 20/1 HE DON'T MAKE IT TO TRAIL.FOUND DEAD IN CELL, GETS W OFF THE ISLAMIC HOOK FOR KILLING A FORMER MIDEAST PREZ. (GOOD OR BAD). WHILE STILL GIVING THE REPUB.S THE (1-0) FOR THEIR WAR.
Posted by: ZACK on October 19, 2006 at 9:45 AM | PERMALINK
Eleven more troops killed in action.
However, Cheney believes that all is going surprisingly well, while Shrub believes this like Tet. In the right wing world, they harp on the fact that the US defeated the Viet Cong in the Tet uprising, but that the victory was lost by the press misleading the public and turning them politically against the war.
So, in Shrub's clouded vision, we are indeed winning in the Battle of Baghdad ala Tet. It is that "liberal" media which is "illogical" and misguiding the public. In Shrub's deluded mind, he is thinking body counts. "Hmmm, 11 of ours must equate into 200 of theirs".
And what were their names, boys, what were their names?
Posted by: thethirdPaul on October 19, 2006 at 10:00 AM | PERMALINK
I am more worried about honest elections. Surely the Republicans won't trot out the diebold virus unless they are in the margin of error, but what about disenfranchising a lot of folks in Ohio and a couple of other close states? Is that possible?
http://rred.info/sitemap.htm
Executing Saddam on November 5? So what?
Posted by: Calo Bob on October 19, 2006 at 10:04 AM | PERMALINK
One name is Army PFC Shane Austin, 19, of Gardner Kansas. He will be laid to rest today. No picture of his coffin arriving at Dover, but there is a photo of it on the page of the KS Star this morning. In the foreground his father is being supported by a friend as he breaks down. His father, a Navy vet, is quoted on the front page "All we're doing now is killing American kids off, in my view. We don't even need to be there anymore."
Quoted below the grieving father is Tony Snow "The president understands not only the difficulty of it, but he grieves for the people who have saccrificed with valor."
Every death I read about, I think of Pvt. Hudson, in Aliens "Is this gonna be a stand-up fight, Sir? OR another bug-hunt?"
This is a bug-hunt.
Posted by: Global Citizen on October 19, 2006 at 10:07 AM | PERMALINK
Hussein's sentence probably won't provide much of a bump, but it will provide a little, reminding people that we got the bastard that we've been busy demonizing as a new Hitler since the first Gulf War. I do think this is the kind of thing that might be able to switch the vote of say, one out of every fifty voters. And that marginal 2% swing could be big: all they need is some difference at the margins in two close races and they'll keep the Senate, and maybe the House too.
Posted by: dynamicinfo on October 19, 2006 at 10:19 AM | PERMALINK
It took researchers, who hadn't previously had access to Diebold machines, around a half hour to hack them. They are easily manipulated and changed. In fact, they are designed that way.
It's real simple: no audit trail = invalid.
(The Republicans know all about audit trails and how to avoid them. That's what the CPA scandal is all about. You know, the one where they didn't get invoices for nearly $10Billion in Iraq?)
Posted by: Jeffrey Davis on October 19, 2006 at 10:27 AM | PERMALINK
Completely shameless.
Completely consistent.
This comment led off, and it's worth thinking about. I agree with the second of these, but it is too easy to fall into the trap of believing your opponents are evil and vicious, and somehow know this and shamelessly continue to push forward. Because that is not true: they are as convinced that they are right as you are that you are right. The logic, then, I think becomes more understandable. Bush still believes he did the right thing in Iraq, and indeed that he is doing the right thing for the country generally. In his own mind, assuming this was arranged at those top levels, this would just be seen as a very dramatic way to highlight that he is right on Iraq.
Why is this important? Because I think it hints at a better way to respond. Do not whine about the "politicization" of the timing. Just attack the case. Say, yes, great, Saddam will pay for his crimes. But then go on to note that after nearly 3000 dead and 20000+ wounded, $400 billion spend, etc. is this really worth it? Is Iraq going well? Do they have a plan? This, I think, is how you need to respond. That is the way to make sure that you're response gains back those voters at the margin that may be swayed by this move.
Posted by: dynamicinfo on October 19, 2006 at 10:30 AM | PERMALINK
Chris Magruder: You know, there's a word for people who think everyone is conspiring against them.
C.W. Briggs: I know..."perceptive".
-- Curse of the Jade Scorpion (2001)
Posted by: Royko on October 19, 2006 at 10:53 AM | PERMALINK
Just another one of those wacky cosmic coincidences.
Akin to the bloody glove that matched the one at the Nicole Simpson murder scene turning up in OJ's backyard.
Simple dumb luck.
Posted by: snark on October 19, 2006 at 11:06 AM | PERMALINK
Since this death sentence was a foregone conclusion (the trial was, after all, a "show trial") it is doubtful that rendering the sentence on Nov. 5 would have much of an affect in the US.
Posted by: raj on October 19, 2006 at 11:09 AM | PERMALINK
In order to STEAL two US Presidential Elections, the GOP-Owned Mainstream Media spend FOUR FULL YEARS "reporting" virtually NON-STOP on the Lewinski affair 24/7/365 to the exclusion of many other matters of far greater importance to Americans and our American interests. As has now become more than abundantly clear, the GOP in fact had no programme of substance, merit, or positive effect for our nation, quite the opposite, thus the Lewinski matter was chosen by the GOP as "the" issue in order to discredit Clinton via their 4 year nonstop all-media smear campaign simply because they had no other device that might work against Clinton, who was in fact such a popular and effective Commander In Chief while his domestic policys were producing a 400 Billion dollar domestic surplus at home that things were going unacceptably well for the USA as far as the GOP was concerned. How could the GOP ever hope to regain credibility in order to seize control of the American people once more? It was decided
that 4 years of media brainwashing would do the trick. Now, less than ONE MONTH after the Republican Child Sex Predator story first broke in the form of Mark Foley's explicit messages to underage Congressional Pages, the very same Republican Owned Mainstream Media is desperately doing everything it possibly can to once again mislead and disinform as many citizens as possible by taking the GOP Pedophile story OUT of the media, as witness todays crop of carefully crafted mind-control headlines: "Foley Controversy Ebbs", "Louisiana Page Not Central To Inquiry, Lawmaker Says", and this gem; "Original Page Matters Not". But Americans understand the Foley im's do in fact matter quite a bit more than the media would have them believe; Pedophilia is rampant in the GOP. The Foley debacle is merely the beginning of the story of what has actually been supported and practiced by the lawless Republican cabal.
Posted by: USA Today on October 19, 2006 at 11:42 AM | PERMALINK
Entirely likely, given the scum in power at present time.
Posted by: Paul in KY on October 19, 2006 at 1:34 PM | PERMALINK
B
Posted by: I'm afraid of saddam, I mean Al on October 19, 2006 at 4:38 PM | PERMALINK
Sorry if this comes across as trollish, but I guess this post really tells me how crazy and out of touch I am with the "sensible liberals" of the world like Kevin Drum and his ilk (see, e.g., Joe Klein, Richard Cohen, Jon Chait and almost everybody else at the New Republic, etc.), in that when I heard this I immediately assumed that of course it was scheduled that way for maximum political impact and it didn't even strike me as the slightest bit remarkable or "tinfoil-hat-esque" -- or, conversely, really all that offensive in the grand scheme of things (which is merely to say that there are so many genuinely offensive things going on out there that this hardly seems worth wasting many electrons on).
I had a similar experience when the news first broke about the "UK Terror Plot" in August -- I was with a group of friends (mostly highly-educated center-left professionals, not a bunch of crazy Noam Chomsky-reading anti-globalization dumpster-diving hippies), and my immediate reaction was to literally roll my eyes and make some comment about "gee, election's coming up so I guess it's time to start gearing up the terror alert system" -- most of my companions just chuckled and shared the sentiment, but unbeknownst to us among us was someone who took it seriously and started fretting about how he had to fly in another week or so and he seemed genuinely frightened (and then started saying things like, what, were we a bunch of crazy nutjobs for thinking that this was somehow a political stunt, after all these are serious professional people who are trying to keep us safe?!?).
Now let's see, here's how I'd rank various theories:
(a) "9/11 was an inside job": a 10 out of 10 on the nutjob conspiracy scale (which I put in the same category as the guy I see outside of Union Station in DC everyday with the signs about how we need to kick Bush out of office because he used gamma rays to kill Rehnquist);
(b) "Ohio vote was hacked": 6 out of 10 -- a little tinfoil-hattish for my taste, but certainly worth taking seriously and investigating -- (and whether true or not in fact in the case of Ohio 2004, there's certainly no defensible reason for not having a verifiable paper trail for voting);
(c) "The neo-cons will launch an attack on Iran with tactical nukes before Bush's second term ends" - I dearly hope to God not, but undoubtedly there are ostensibly "serious" and very powerful people in the Bush administration who want this and will do so if they get the upper hand in the foreign policy establishment internecine power struggle between the neo-cons and the neo-realists -- 2 out of 10 (not that I think it's 80% likely to happen, but rather that it's 80% likely that it's an accurate description of the world to say that Cheney and/or Rumsfeld and/or Hadley and/or whomever want it and are actively working toward that end).
But, (d) "November 5 Sentencing Date was politically motivated"? I wouldn't have even thought it bears rating on the scale -- 0/0.
What I find remarkable is the fact that an intelligent pundit in 2006 who I know has been paying attention to what's been happening for the last six years would even think to put something as minor and Bush-league (so to speak) as this in the category of possibly something to just be laughed off as a nutbar conspiracy theory. To suggest that there's even any question seems to me to be playing the classic "sensible liberal" role -- enabling the serious guardians of our political discourse to say "see, even the liberal Kevin Drum dismisses suggestions that this was politically timed as nothing more than 'nutbar conspiracy theorizing'."
Posted by: Progressive_Patriot on October 19, 2006 at 5:34 PM | PERMALINK
Progressive Patriot:
For me, it's not much of a question whether or not the date was manipulated for political purposes. Because if it was -- it was surely an act of monumental desperation.
So we're going to have the last weekend news cycle before the election taken up with the clusterfuck that is Iraq? So we can show the Suunis having even *more* reason to feel demoralized and the Shia (and Iran) even more bullyingly trimumphalist?
Ramsey Clark (one of Saddam's lawyers) says that if Saddam is executed, the Sunni are going to go apeshit in a way we haven't seen before. If this happens -- how in gods grey earth could it help the GOP at the polls?
Bob
Posted by: rmck1 on October 19, 2006 at 5:59 PM | PERMALINK
(b).
Posted by: Tom Tomberg on October 19, 2006 at 6:26 PM | PERMALINK
Bob:
The way I see it, "national security" is by and large all the Rs have left (it's not like they're going to run on the economy, or on the stellar job they've done with post-Katrina reconstruction, or even (thanks to the Foley scandal) on their traditional red-meat-for-the-base issue of hating teh gay) -- and while reasonable observers like you and me see that the decision to invade Iraq was hugely counterproductive (both because it forced us to pull out of Afghanistan too early, and because it replaced a stable, secular, anti-Islamist dictator with an unstable breeding ground for both Shiite fundamentalists and Saudi Wahabbists), the Republican base largely accepts the Fox News spin that Iraq is (and always was) the "central front in the war on terror. So to some extent they would rather the focus be on Iraq than on domestic issues.
Furthermore, the way things have been going, no matter what Iraq will be in the news anyway: the only question is whether that news will be the continuing drip of more deaths of American soldiers and marines, or if somehow the news media's attention can instead be focused on some happy positive news about how well things are going in Iraq. Since I think all the wonderful Iraqi schools that we repainted have since been either blown up or turned into morgues, this is where a Saddam guilty verdict comes in -- guaranteeing the Rs a much-needed 48-hours of positive Iraqi news coverage from the dutiful fourth estate in (what a coincidence!) the 48 hours leading up to the election.
Posted by: Progressive_Patriot on October 19, 2006 at 9:36 PM | PERMALINK
If this is THE October Surprise everyone's been nervously awaiting, then Rove's off his feed. A conviction is not a new story; those Americans who are even dimly sentient assumed long ago that Saddam would be eventually convicted and quickly executed. Given the rapid deterioration of the situation there, most Republicans currently running for Congress are doing everything they can to avoid mentioning Iraq specifically; their appeals are to the more nebulous "war on terror". When even reliable Bush sycophants like Jonah Goldberg at NRO and Kay Bailey Hutchinson are bailing on Iraq, there's precious little bounce to be had from Saddam's conviction. It's far more likely that the Surprise will be either an attack on Iran or news that we've got Osama captive in some base in Afghanistan....and that Osama's rooting for the Democrats, he was 100% responsible for Foleygate, and that he and Bill Clinton orchestrated 9/11 and were secretly married in Massachusetts.
Posted by: bluestatedon on October 20, 2006 at 1:21 AM | PERMALINK
I tend to agree with bluestatedon. A genuine October Surprise would more likely be cooked up by the three battle groups massing in the Persian Gulf right now (though it's still highly unlikely) or pulling Osama out of the Witness Protection Program and sticking him in front of a camera.
Barring those, I don't see how an execution of Saddam counts as "happy news," again considering the likelihood of a massive Sunni uprising as predicted by Clark and others.
I mean -- what do you say after you convict and excecute someone? How do you fill out the coverage? Naturally it would lead to retrospectives on his rule -- and then the 3-year American occupation which hardly looks better than his rule, and in the most important ways has made life worse.
We could've spun this two years ago. We could've even spun this after the last Iraqi election. There was hope in the air then. There's precious little hope left now.
Again, if the execution becomes an excuse for marathon Iraq coverage, it's not going to be about any purple fingers or painted schools.
And thus it won't redound to the benefit of the GOP -- who have been desperately trying to change the subject from Iraq the whole campaign.
Bob
Posted by: rmck1 on October 20, 2006 at 5:36 AM | PERMALINK
karl rove: "Between now and the election, we will spend $100 million in target House and Senate races in the next 21 days."
democrats ---think--- red staters are stupid..
rove and bush...
know it...
Posted by: mr. irony on October 20, 2006 at 8:48 AM | PERMALINK
Beware the Rovember Surprise!
Bwah-hah-hah-hah!
All your Diebold are belong to us!
Posted by: heldmyw on October 20, 2006 at 1:20 PM | PERMALINK