General [William] Caldwell called the spike in attacks “disheartening"

I'm sure the families of the American service members killed -- including a 52-year-old called up from the reserves -- find it "disheartening" as well.

NPR frequently profiles the soldiers who lost their lives in Bush's Excellent Adventure. The waste of so many fine Americans -- while pantloads like Jonah Goldberg sit Stateside and pick up fat paychecks selling the war with bullshit, pleading "other priorities" -- sacrificed on the altar of Bush's political ambition is one of the most disgusting aspects of Bush's war.

Just don't say that the military is getting their asses kicked. Otherwise a group of pissed off soldiers will show up at your house and kick you in the jaw. At least according to Norman anyway. I, however, refuse to believe such filthy gossip about the proclivities of our fighting men and women in uniform.

IF the increased violence has been orchestrated by Iran to impact the midterm elections, who do you think the terrorists want to be in control of congress?

Think carefully before you answer.

On Dannatt's observation, yes and no. Coalition forces are certainly frequent targets of attack, and to that extent can be said to worsen the security problems in Iraq. On the other hand the bulk of actual killings is being directed at Iraqis, by Iraqis in sectarian vendettas. It's hard to see how that would not get even worse without the Americans there.

Eventually, and following the precedent of civil wars in the Balkans and West Africa, exhaustion will set in and factional leaders will be ready to discuss some kind of settlement. When that happens might be influenced by the coalition presence, in that reducing or ending the presence might accelerate the pace of sectarian violence and hasten the onset of exhaustion. The point I'm making is that Dannatt was discussing the security problem in the context of the insurgency (and, in the British zone, the efforts of Shiite militias to entrench their positions of power against the coalition and each other). That analysis is still valid in part, but since Samarra has also been partly overtaken by events.

IF the increased violence has been orchestrated by Iran to impact the midterm elections, who do you think the terrorists want to be in control of congress?

I don't think the Iranians give a flying fuck who's in control of Congress. I think they will do what they can to ensure that the Shiites are in control of Iraq. You think the Iranians have spent the last three years orchestrating events in Iraq around the American electoral system?

Take another hit from the bong my friend.

The Army is winning Dear Leader's war of attrition!

Soon, everyone opposed to a wonderful Democracy in Iraq will be dead!

What's with the hyperdefeatism from lefty blogs?

They seem to be grasping at any straw they see.

Check out this one from John Quiggin:

http://crookedtimber.org/2006/10/18/obvious-truths-finally-stated

NPR frequently profiles the soldiers who lost their lives in Bush's Excellent Adventure.

They did one this morning on a Marine captain killed recently in Iraq. The marine's father is a retired political science prof.

It was weird because according to the story the captain was and his father is angry at the American people for behaving as if there was not a war on. But the Nice Polite Republican reporter didn't mention if they were angry at the shrub for telling us to hug our children and go shopping.

I thought this plan was supposed to be secret.

Even if the increase in attacks is motivated by Ramadan, the reporting of the increase in attacks might be motivated by the coming election. This could be a parallel to Vietnam's Tet offensive. That was military defeat for our enemy, but it was misreported as a victory. That inaccurate reporting helped convince the US to give up (which may have been a good thing.)

Those outlets who want to be fair will report the increase in attacks as the expected Ramadan increase. Those who want to promote policy change will report that the increase in attacks means that our situation is hopeless.

"I think they will do what they can to ensure that the Shiites are in control of Iraq."

And wouldn't that be much easier if the US military were pulled out of the region because of the political pressure? Do you think the Iranians are stupid?

All they have to do is cause bloodshed and they know the liberals will squeel until we cut and run.

They know there a plenty of Jimmy Carters and Chavez lovers running around America.

What's with the hyperdefeatism from lefty blogs?

Yes, and claiming that only by suspending the writ of habeas corpus and resorting to the techniques of barbarism can we possibly have the ability to fend off our enemies from overtaking our shores and slitting all our throats is somehow an opptimistic outlook?

All they have to do is cause bloodshed and they know the liberals will squeel until we cut and run.

Bonus points for incorporating a tired catchphrase in your response.

You can be sure that if Tony Snow has to clarify what the general meant to say, then the Bush administration must realize they need to be in full scale damage control with less than three weeks until the midterm election. I could be wrong, but it does seem that voter sentiment has reached the tipping point and it is doubtful that they will alter their conclusions about the war effort. In fact, it is hard to imagine what news could alter the mood of the electorate at this late date.

Reading between the lines, I would equate the strategy with what John McCain has called a game of whack-a-mole whereby we are chasing insurgents from neighborhood to neighborhood because we haven't committed the troop strength necessary to control the entire city. Further, the Iraqi forces continue to prove ineffective...and may be actually participating in the sectarian strife. Frankly, the Bush administration's intransigence must bear the bulk of the blame as they refused to listen to those who argued that we would need a much larger troop presence to win the peace. To call for more troops now will only be met with more criticism and it would be a tacit admission that the war strategy was badly flawed...a perspective now held by a large majority of Americans.

Read more here:

www.thoughttheater.com

Waging wars are easier than waging peace.

Having no idea what a "peaceful" free Iraq could be, war was waged beginning in 1990 (after we helped Iraq fight against Iran for a decade).

Strange isn't it, we've technically been fighting a war in the Mid-East since 1979?.

Peace is more than the absence of war.

Time for us all to wage peace (since waging wars sucks in the long run).

How is it possible for the war in (and around) Iraq to last longer than the US's involvement with WWII?

Only because war profiteers con us into waging wars.

Look at the DOW index. It's high right now. Dig. Notice how stocks are way up for defense/security related industries.

We're in Iraq for the long haul, withdrawal will be only symbolic or deceptive while operatives linger, returning sniper fire, waging war.

They did one this morning on a Marine captain killed recently in Iraq. The marine's father is a retired political science prof.

It was also wierd because they refered to the casualty as an "unlikely" Marine -- apparently, because his father was a university professor.

Even though his father also served in the military.

Although Republican incompetence is shattering their decades-long branding effort as "strong on defense," and Democrats from John Kerry to Al Gore to Tammy Duckworth have served with honor while creeps like Goldberg and Cheney beg "other priorities," NPR still buys into the meme. some "liberal media."

I think what is really happening is that (in addition to the Ramadon push) the media know that the negative social perception cycle of the war has run it's course and the pendulum is about to swing the other way, they're hoping to stop it so they don't look wrong.

We've already lost, Aaron. The world is just waiting for Bush and Cheney to wake up to reality. Hopefully they'll do it before we lose our Army.

And check out the lefties at American Conservative magazine:

http://amconmag.com/2006/2006_10_23/article2.html

What's with the hyperdefeatism from lefty blogs

I see Oxyaddict, oliely etc have provided their trolls with a shiny new buzzword.

All they have to do is cause bloodshed and they know the liberals will squeel until we cut and run.

Right on cue comes the Orewllian-named "Owrell."

"We," Orwell? You're in the service, I take it?

The fact that Bush insistes on paying for the war with a tax cut -- much less asks the war's vocal supporters to join up -- shows how unserious he is.

"We" don't have the troops to do the job, "Orwell." "Stay the course" is just "cut and run" with a higher body count. So unless your ass is in uniform, you have no standing to gripe about "cut in run." Clear?

Over three years into the war and we dont control the capital yet. Thats what happens when you invade with one-third of the forces you need to win the war -- you lose. The only bright side is Bush is lying when he says this is a fight for civilization and we have to win it to save our lives. Because if that were true we would be screwed but good.

I don't think the Iranians give a flying fuck who's in control of Congress.

Well, they endorsed Bush in 2004. Look it up.

Soon, everyone opposed to a wonderful Democracy in Iraq will be dead!

Soon everyone in Iraq will be dead!

There fixed it for you Al's Mommy

The war is a travesty and an atrocity. That Bush will never hang for having started it is an injustice.

War is impervious to spin doctoring.

I don't suppose Cheney & Rumsfeld & Pres. Bush will start listening to the troops on the ground now, do you?

What, builing the gigantic trench around the city didn't work....?

Well, they endorsed Bush in 2004. Look it up.

And how do we know that that endorsement wasn't a super duper double secret reverse psychology move on Irans part?

I simply think claiming that Iran has orchestrated events in Iraq with the express objective of getting more Democrats into office is a bit silly.

So unless your ass is in uniform, you have no standing to gripe about "cut in run." Clear?

Gregory, come on get real please. orwellian, and the rest of these chickenhawks have less chance of being in boots then the doughy pantload has. Unless of course they all decide to get together and play dress up for halloween.

Wow..."ex-liberal" unleashes an astonishing barrage of dishonesty even for him/her/it.

Even if the increase in attacks is motivated by Ramadan, the reporting of the increase in attacks might be motivated by the coming election.

As predicted, the GOP apologists are sharpening up the dolchstosslegende.

This could be a parallel to Vietnam's Tet offensive. That was military defeat for our enemy, but it was misreported as a victory.

No, it simply showed that the Pentagon's misreporting of victory up to that point was all bullshit.

That inaccurate reporting

Objection -- assertion not in evidence.

In fact, according to the Pentagon, the VC should not have been capable of launching the kinds of attacks they did -- including taking the Saigon Embassy and the city of Hue.

helped convince the US to give up (which may have been a good thing.)

The US pulled out in '68? Richard Nixon never got elected with a "secret plan" to end the war (send more troops!) Who knew?

Caldwell is beginning to slip off-message. He might soon join the long list (now 5 pages long -?) of former Bush folks who decided to 'spend more time with their families'.

Over three years into the war and we don't control the capital yet. Thats what happens when you invade with one-third of the forces you need to win the war -- you lose.

I'm not sure sheer numbers really have that much of a role in causing or solving this problem.

We could gain control over Baghdad over a long weekend if we could persuade the people who live there that that was in their interest, and we won't control it before the heat-death of the Universe if the people who live there decide such control would not be in their interest.

And consistently reinforcing the latter choice won't make the former one any more appealing.

No, it simply showed that the Pentagon's misreporting of victory up to that point was all bullshit.

Right, it was a fatal blow to the Pentagon's credibility. They said we were winning, that the enemy was weakening, and then Tet happened.

We passed the Tet point with Iraqnam quite awhile ago.

Gregory, come on get real please. orwellian, and the rest of these chickenhawks have less chance of being in boots then the doughy pantload has.

Of course...but of course the disaster in Iraq is not their fault! The 101st Fighting Keyboarders gave their all!

I'm not sure sheer numbers really have that much of a role in causing or solving this problem.

Invading with a fraction of the necessary forces pretty much guaranteed failure, barring a miracle, and no miracle occurred.

The Eye of Mordor is being drawn to Baghdad...and the Uruk-Hai are on the march....

We passed the Tet point with Iraqnam quite awhile ago.

"Last throes," indeed.

Gregory;

Have you checked the Army recruiting goals for this year? It isn’t the lack of military numbers which is failing in Iraq; it is that the American people do not have the stomach for what really needs to happen to secure victory.

And by the way I am an actual American who supports the military and trusts them to act justly - so I will say "We" all I want. Those men and women have protected my family from terrorists and I will not spit on their VOLUNTARY service to allow my freedom of speech. I don't want to hold them back from doing their job or tell them to retreat from the field of battle before the conflict is finished.

You have no standing to dictate to me what I can and can't say. Clear?

No one goes Orwellian on Orwell.

No doubt, grytpype.

Based on what has happened that even if the present crew went in with a half-a-million troops, Cheney and Rumsfeld would have made sure that the extra boots would only have been used to do more dumb, violent, counter-productive things.

(And a hearty Ying-tong-iddle-I-po to ye...]

Even if the increase in attacks is motivated by Ramadan, the reporting of the increase in attacks might be motivated by the coming election. This could be a parallel to Vietnam's Tet offensive. That was military defeat for our enemy, but it was misreported as a victory. That inaccurate reporting helped convince the US to give up (which may have been a good thing.)

Congratulations, "ex-liberal": this is the single stupidest thing you've ever posted. It's chock-full of fact- and logic-free goodness!

So when attacks on Americans increase, the media is to be blamed for reporting it. Right. How dare they?

And Tet? Speaking in psychological terms, it was a victory for the Viet Cong. U.S. generals kept seeing light at the end of the tunnel, the enemy is about ready to give up, etc. (ah, misty water-colored memories of the way we still are) - and then the damn uncooperative gooks had to go and spoil all that propaganda for us.

I notice, too, how with your final parenthetical aside you try to work your way back out of the little corner into which you painted yourself: the damn media made us lose Vietnam! Uh, but wait, maybe that was a good thing!

it is that the American people do not have the stomach for what really needs to happen to secure victory.

Oh, please, Orwell, do tell us what that would be. I'm all ears, big man.

...it is that the American people do not have the stomach for what really needs to happen to secure victory.

And that would be.....

Oh!

Oh!

I know!

More tax cuts for the wealthiest 1%!

Have you checked the Army recruiting goals for this year?

Sure have...and the fact that to just barely acieved their goals, they had to significantly lower standards and omit disqualifications for gang and hate group membership.

Yet another way Republican ineptitude is screwing up our national security, thanks for reminding us.

It isn’t the lack of military numbers which is failing in Iraq; it is that the American people do not have the stomach for what really needs to happen to secure victory.

Which, since I gather you are not in uniform, includes you. You bloviate about "cut and run" but aren't willing to put your own ass on the line -- so it can't be that important, can it?

yadda yadda yadda...You have no standing to dictate to me what I can and can't say.

Oh, I wouldn't dreamM of it -- nice dishonest paraphrase, there. I will simply note, again, though, that your "support" for the military and a buck will get you a cup of coffee -- and not a very good one -- and that your proclivity for your mouth to write checks your butt can't cash doesn't enhance your credibility.

Oh, I forgot -- what credibility?

Eric Blair must be spinning in his grave.

INGSOC:

Big Brother has suffered an attack on Hawaii with seismic weaponry from the Yakuza. To protect the motherland US declares war on the terrorist nation of Brazil

The two minutes of hate has been extended to four minutes today only. Pineapples will be rationed.

Pineapples will be rationed.

You mean, the pineapple ration will be increased. ;)

if i understand the aptly-named orwell says, the more you support the troops, the more of them you are willing to sacrifice. ignorance is strength, indeed.

Was listening to talk radio this morning. All the callers were talking about how we couldn't win unless we took it up a notch by whatever (nuking, torturing, etc). Democrats have a few positions on Iraq; Get out now, get out later and Lieberman.

But Republicans regularly propose genocide as the answer to Iraq. why doesn't the media ever say that Republicans are conflicted on Iraq? Just curious.

If reports that John Kerry has 26 Million available are valid, that money should be released immediately to fight the Republican Black-Box subversion of our US Constitutional right to Free, Fair, and Open Elections in 2006. Republicans have stolen the past two US presidential elections to the serious detriment of our country and our world. Democrats must now win a decisive vistory by taking back both the House and the Senate if our beloved country is to regain its Honor and Integrity at home and in the community of nations. Any monies John Kerry has should be released to aid in this critical fight against systemic illegal and immoral GOP voter intimidation and the wholesale Republican subversion, fraud and theft of our American elections.

"your mouth to write checks your butt can't cash..."

Great movie quote.

Of course! What was I thinking! Only the military people can comment on the military!

Who cares that the lack of support for the troops back home encourages terrorists to keep their efforts alive until the politicos pull the troops out. Nah, only the bravest who have put on the uniform can comment at all.

They wouldn't want the rest of us civilians speaking out in support of them or show the courage to believe they are acting with honor and bravery.

They clearly wouldn't want any of us to be determined to resist the cut and run crowd. After all we are just cowardly Americans who should shut up because they would't want us to exercise the right of free speech - the right they are fighting to defend.

Are you an active part of the military now Gregory? If so are you supporting the other troops? If you aren't in the military why not join and show your support for what you believe by refusing to fight an unjust war?

Go ahead be a real man and show how strong you are to stand up to the industrial military complex. Prove you are doing more than just spouting Democratic talking points.

JFK would be turning over in his grave if he could see the state of liberals in America.

Who cares that the lack of support for the troops back home encourages terrorists to keep their efforts alive until the politicos pull the troops out.

So if we bite our tongues and offer no criticism of Bushco. the terrorists will stop hating us for our freedom and stop wanting to come here and slit our throats and the throats of our children?

Is that how it's supposed to work?

Of course! What was I thinking! Only the military people can comment on the military!

Ah, another dishonest parapgrase, Orwell. I'm delighted to see you admit, by your straw man, that you're incapable of defending your shortcomings.

Anyone who wants to can comment on the military.

Of course, those who insist that "we" need to say and die in futile foreign wars that they themselves conspicuously refuse to sign up for quite rightly see their credibility diminished.

Oh, I forgot again -- what credibility?

Even more delicious is you characterizing your insistence that others do the dying for a war you support but refuse to fight in is supporting the troops! Ho-ho! As benjoya suggested more gently than you deserve, support for the troops is measured by how many of you are willing to sacrifice to assuage your own cowardice.

But for you to talk of courage ... now that is doublespeak worthy of the handle Orwell. I applaud you.

Who cares that the lack of support for the troops back home encourages terrorists to keep their efforts alive until the politicos pull the troops out. Nah, only the bravest who have put on the uniform can comment at all.

Lack of support? You know, about 52 million Americans voted for Bush in the last election. Of those at least a third must be relatively healthy and from 18 to 42 (current enlistment cut-off for the Army). That's around 17 million people who could be enlisting in the Army, but aren't -- 17 million, and we're only able to put 150,000 troops into Iraq?

That Republican support for the war seems to be about a mile wide but an inch deep. So let me ask you: if you're not willing to support the Iraq War, why should I?

I thought Joyfully Subservice's comments from another thread were a propos to the discussion going on here. I hope she won't mind me reposting them:

Don't fucking lionize the troops. We are human beings; nothing more and nothing less. Evryone has a reason for going in in the first place. Some are noble, some are economic, some are merely to get the hell out of a one-horse town and on to better things, and the military is a conduit for that end.

I swear to God, the next time someone says "thank you for your service" I'm going to put my size-7 boot against their jaw myself. I didn't do a God-damned thing so candy-asses who have never done a pull-up in their lives could feel patriotic saying "thank you for your service." I went to the Benning School for Wayward Girls because I felt an obligation to duty, honor and country. Not for the undying gratitude and lionization that is occuring now.

Posted by: Joyfully Subversive on October 19, 2006 at 4:34 PM | PERMALINK

Anyone who wants to can comment on the military.

Hell yes they can. We have civillian control of the military. We sreve to protect the Constitutional freedoms granted all Americans. As long as your taxes cover the paychecks of the troops, you are welcome to express any opinion you like. Any officer who disagrees with that has fascist tendencies and authoritarian personality issues and should be drummed out of the corps.

Orwell: Who cares that the lack of support for the troops back home encourages terrorists to keep their efforts alive until the politicos pull the troops out.

Lack of support for the troops, or lack of support for the war? Could you envision a scenario where you would not support a US war? Is it truly "my country, right or wrong?"

civilians speaking out in support of them or show the courage to believe they are acting with honor and bravery.

They clearly wouldn't want any of us to be determined to resist the cut and run crowd.

Good Ford, "Orwell" has written the manifesto of the 101st Fighting Keyboardists, there!

Perhaps "Orwell" would be better off sticking to his/her/its usual style of drive-by posting of Rush Limbaugh talking points.

No problem Windhorse. Thanks, by the way. This is probably the better thread for those remarks anyway. I just haven't had my "morning coffee" yet.

They clearly wouldn't want any of us to be determined to resist the cut and run crowd. After all we are just cowardly Americans who should shut up because they would't want us to exercise the right of free speech - the right they are fighting to defend.

Now you're making fun of yourself, right?

I mean your comments lead me to believe you'd like to ball up the right to free speech and shove down an anti-Iraq War Americans throat til they gag to death.

Is it truly "my country, right or wrong?"

Scratch that. Not sure WTF I meant by that last phrase. Point was the previous question. Can you question your country's involvement in war?

I am against this war, and I was in the first one. Okay, I was in a field hospital in Kuwait, but still, I was deployed and lived in a tent in the fucking desert for seven months, so damn strait I joined the VFW.

Anyone want to question my patriotism because i had the sense to smell the Bushit from the get-go? We don't check out brains or common sense at the door to the recruiting office you know.

Anyone who thinks the troops are all gung-ho about this fiasco needs to head over to "Intel Dump" and read some of the posts there.

I would prefer the Iraqi patriots dis-hearten General Caldwell the old fashioned way.

Anyone who thinks the troops are all gung-ho about this fiasco needs to head over to "Intel Dump" and read some of the posts there.

I've never been in the military and I don't know anyone who has served in Iraq. So I am not qualified to offer any opinion on the attitudes of those that are there or have been there.

But I sure see a lotta gung-ho attitudes...from people who've never been anywhere near Iraq.

Me too, Henry.

These gung-ho clowns have never activated the "walking blood bank" and they have never seen a troop, or a civilian, on a stretcher in three separate pieces.

According to Bob Woodward's reporting in State of Denial, the war became irretrievable when Don Rumsfeld, Doug Feith or Jerry Bremmer (hard to tell which one since they point fingers at each other) decided to kick all the baath party members out of Iraqi government service (nearly everybody in government service because Saddam demanded party membership to work for the Iraqi government) and to disband the Iraqi army.

As Jay Garner told Woodward, at the time people on his staff figured it would take 10 years to clean up the mess and that we would be sending brave young men and women home in body bags for years.

You might argue that hindsight is 20/20, but at the time the professionals in Iraq understood the potential consequences of those insane decisions. They were pretty darned obvious to anybody who thought about the problem.

The Iraq mess is owned lock, stock and barrel by our profoundly incompetent leadership. Goldberg is just now figuring it out? How dumb does he have to be for the realization to take this long.

My nephew is scheduled to ship out to Iraq sometime soon. He's in the Oklahoma Air National Guard. He's 20 and joined the Guard because he didn't want to go to college and couldn't find anything else better to do. Last time I spoke to him he was not happy to be going, wasn't sure why we are still there but was at peace with the fact that he is going. He certainly is not gung-ho about it.

The spike in violence is the result of US troops aggressively going into Baghdad neighborhoods to confront insurgents. Armies conducting offensive maneuvers always take more casualties. We took more casualties when we invaded Falloojah.

November 2004 - the battle for fallujah - 137 dead, 126 in combat. The bloodiest month thus far in this ill-advised fiasco.

Right now the troops are out in the streets of Baghdad trying to quell the sectarian violence. This makes them visible targets.

Always remember that this war has been fought 100% the way Bush and his henchmen wanted it fought. They've been given a free hand, and not one soldier nor one dollar they've asked for has been denied them. If we're losing -- and we are -- then we're losing based on their plan, their strategy. They are completely to blame.

ex-lib: Even if the increase in attacks is motivated by Ramadan, the reporting of the increase in attacks might be motivated by the coming election.

In July, of 2,625 explosive devices, 1,666 exploded and 959 were discovered before they went off.

In January, 1,454 bombs exploded or were found.

so it was ramadan in january and july too?

"You think Vietnam was bad? Vietnam is nothing next to Kosovo."

- Tony Snow March 24, 1999

U-S death toll in Kosovo? zero

obviously..

snow was wishing for more dead americans..

because a democrat was president..

clinton is gone..

but it looks like...snow and the gop got their wish..

Orwell - Would that be the same JFK who refused to invade Cuba during the Missile Crisis, who refused to send hundreds of thousands of troops to Laos when the Cold Warriors were screaming for it, when he refused to escalate in Vietnam the way LBJ did, when he refused to go to war with USSR over the Berlin Wall?

Even if the increase in attacks is motivated by Ramadan, the reporting of the increase in attacks might be motivated by the coming election.

It could also be motivated by the actual increase in attacks, which seems a more parsimonious explanation.

I did a yahoo search for this"You think Vietnam was bad? Vietnam is nothing next to Kosovo" and came up with this http://www.hannity.com/forum/showthread.php?t=14765&page=5.Absolutely surreal.Mr. Perspective indeed.

If you aren't in the military why not join and show your support for what you believe by refusing to fight an unjust war?

WTF?
Unhinged.

Yeah, I get that all the time, chickenhawks asserting that *I* am the chicken for not fighting in a war that I don't believe in, while they are brave and pure in their resolve to have others die in their war.

They don't call them wingnuts for nothing.

You mean there is a government in Baghdad to work with??? I thought they had either fled the city and were living in some fig grove or they were busy beheading the guy down the street who belonged to the other mosque in the neighborhood!

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It bothers me that a general would all but say, "if you vote Democrat, you're playing into the extremists' hands." Frankly, I think he should be demoted, then sacked.

RT: He may have said that to avoid that very thing.

RT:

I think he should have his sack torn off.

TLA: Yeah, that too.

Generals are politicians. The most political prick on the face of the earth is a bird colonel with stars in his eyes.

If he sold out the troops to save his own sorry ass because he lots a bureaucratic knife fight with Rumsfeld, Paredor! with him.

Eventually, and following the precedent of civil wars in the Balkans and West Africa, exhaustion will set in and factional leaders will be ready to discuss some kind of settlement. When that happens might be influenced by the coalition presence, in that reducing or ending the presence might accelerate the pace of sectarian violence and hasten the onset of exhaustion. The point I'm making is that Dannatt was discussing the security problem in the context of the insurgency (and, in the British zone, the efforts of Shiite militias to entrench their positions of power against the coalition and each other). That analysis is still valid in part, but since Samarra has also been partly overtaken by events.

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