Editore"s Note
Tilting at Windmills

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October 22, 2006
By: Kevin Drum

USC FOOTBALL RAMBLINGS....As long as I'm focused on Los Angeles news this morning, I have to say that yesterday's football results gave me a bit of relief. Like most USC fans, three consecutive squeakers over mid-tier teams had made me pretty nervous about this year's prospects. I really couldn't blame the AP pollsters for their aggressive efforts to find someone anyone other than USC to put in their #2 spot whenever the previous #2 lost.

But USC's record is starting to look a little better. We had a good win over Arkansas early in the season, and Arkansas has turned out to be a pretty good team. With the exception of their loss to the Trojans, they're undefeated, including wins over Auburn and Alabama.

USC's win over Nebraska was less dramatic, but still solid. And Nebraska isn't bad, either, nearly beating #9 Texas yesterday.

And those Washington teams? Washington State beat #14 Oregon yesterday and Washington took #10 Cal to overtime. USC's wins over the Cougars and Huskies may have been ugly, but they're starting to look a little more impressive just the same.

(And the near-meltdown against Arizona State last week? I still don't know what to make of that.)

The final month of the season continues to look like a killer (Oregon, Cal, Notre Dame, UCLA), but this is still shaping up to be a helluva "rebuilding" year. See ya in the BCS Championship Game, Buckeyes.

UPDATE: Oops. Fiesta Bowl is right, not Orange Bowl. Can't keep my bowls straight.

UPDATE 2: Wrong again. It's just the "BCS Championship Game." It's played in Arizona, it's in the same stadium as the Fiesta Bowl, but it's not the Fiesta Bowl. It's a week later and it's the BCS Championship Game. I think I now finally have this right.

Kevin Drum 1:37 PM Permalink | Trackbacks | Comments (64)

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Comments

*Wince* - why did you have to remind my my Ducks lost yesterday? I was almost over that little bit of unpleasantness.

Posted by: Global Citizen on October 22, 2006 at 1:41 PM | PERMALINK

See you in the Orange Bowl, Buckeyes

Make it the Fiesta Bowl and you've got a deal.

BRING IT ON!

Posted by: Mike D on October 22, 2006 at 1:41 PM | PERMALINK

Take off, SoCal bitch.

Go Bears! The Brains from Berkeley are going to the Rose Bowl.

Posted by: paradox on October 22, 2006 at 1:41 PM | PERMALINK

Only because the structure of the BCS makes it essentially impossible for Michigan vs Ohio St. to be the championship game.

Posted by: cdj on October 22, 2006 at 1:47 PM | PERMALINK

hey Kevin

Nice to see a shoutout for the Razorbacks here. Honestly, football is probalby my least favorite of the 3 major corporatized college sports, but as an Arkie expat my interest has actually increased since I moved away. Have to thnk Houston Nutt for this contribution to the vernacular, appropo to I'm not sure what: "well, it's not a scientific rocket!"

Posted by: URK on October 22, 2006 at 1:50 PM | PERMALINK

See you in the Orange Bowl, Buckeyes

Well, that implies that both the Ohio State University and USC will have one loss (and that the ACC rep is going elsewhere, but we'll ignore that for now).

Hey! Sounds great. Because we all know that Michigan is going to the National Champioship Game in Tempe. And it's looking more and more like they'll be playing WVU. (Though I'd rather see Auburn and their defense make it)

My point: keep dreaming, USC's not going to National Championship Game this year. They'll get tripped up in one of their remaining games.

But you are right: this is a helluva rebuilding year.

Posted by: fresburger on October 22, 2006 at 1:50 PM | PERMALINK

Kevin

Its hard for me to imagine that USC would beat OSU in any bowl game outside of California. Booty seems an adequate QB, but the Trojan offense is hardly explosive.

The PAC-10, in general, seems like it is the best conference OVERALL, since all the team seem equally good, with the exception of Stanford.

To put it another way: if USC were magically within any conference other than the PAC-10, they could probably beat almost every team in the hypothetical conference. But I don't like the Trojan's chances against the top team(s) in any of the other major conferences, except perhaps the Big East.

Posted by: Kirok on October 22, 2006 at 1:52 PM | PERMALINK

The championship game is in Phoenix this year. I realize that you Trojans prefer to play in Florida as often as possible so that your most famous alumnus can attend practice, as long as he isn't searching for the real killers.

Posted by: John M on October 22, 2006 at 1:53 PM | PERMALINK

cdj: Only because the structure of the BCS makes it essentially impossible for Michigan vs Ohio St. to be the championship game.

Don't worry too much about that. Those of us out here in a reality-based community realize that the National Champioship game will be played November 18 in Columbus, Ohio.

Those others are just pretenders to the throne.

Posted by: fresburger on October 22, 2006 at 1:53 PM | PERMALINK

"Don't worry too much about that. Those of us out here in a reality-based community realize that the National Champioship game will be played November 18 in Columbus, Ohio."

correct. either team, OSU or MI, could beat USC handily.

Posted by: jdw on October 22, 2006 at 2:18 PM | PERMALINK

Baseball is America's own home-grown sport. Football is just a mongrel version of rugby, which is a mongrel version of soccer, or "football" as it is known in Europe.

Did you know "football" is popular in France?

I'm not surprised that a liberal like Kevin would write about football the day after the opening game of the World Series.

Posted by: Al on October 22, 2006 at 2:28 PM | PERMALINK

jdw you are so right, and as a Buckeye who has witnessed over 30 of these late November wars, I am adequately nervous.

Very much in our favor, fortunately enough, is that we have arguably the best head coach in college football. He is focused, laconic and a better big game coach then our fair school has ever seen.

Go Bucks!

If Tressel gets his boys past that school up north (whose name must never be spoken), I will be resting much easier.

Posted by: Keith G on October 22, 2006 at 2:30 PM | PERMALINK

Al: Baseball is America's homegrown sport

Wrong. It's history can be traced to England.

Thanks for playing!

Posted by: fresburger on October 22, 2006 at 2:36 PM | PERMALINK

Really - Basketball, now that is a sport with it's roots in the America's. Even if you go all the way back to pre-columbian times and the game played with an opponents own head being tossed through the goal...

Posted by: Global Citizen on October 22, 2006 at 2:40 PM | PERMALINK

No, NOT the Fiesta Bowl either. There's five BCS games now, remember?
The BCS title game be played in Glendale, Ariz., about 20 miles from Tempe, a few days after the Fiesta Bowl.

Posted by: Gold Star for Robot Boy on October 22, 2006 at 2:43 PM | PERMALINK

Netx year, see you in Lincoln! GO BIG RED!!!

Posted by: A Nebraskan in Florida on October 22, 2006 at 2:46 PM | PERMALINK

Any national title game that doesn't include the Big 10 champ and the Big East champ, being the only remaining major conference undefeated teams, will be a shock. And beyond that, any national champion but Michigan or Ohio State will be a shock. USC's just got too tough a schedule left to get through unscathed

(And despite being a Big 10 partisan, I will acknowledge that the field is really tilted in favor of Michigan and OSU -- the rest of the conference ranges from bad to mediocre, while USC is facing a much tougher conference schedule.)

Posted by: Aaron S. Veenstra on October 22, 2006 at 2:48 PM | PERMALINK

Whoops. Typo in my previous post. As they say, the "N" on the helmet stands for Nowledge.

Posted by: A Nebraskan in Florida on October 22, 2006 at 2:49 PM | PERMALINK

D'oh! Please drop that apostrophe from it's in my response to Al (the real Al???)

Damn it's and its.

Posted by: fresburger on October 22, 2006 at 2:51 PM | PERMALINK

To hell with you Drum! ND gonna crush you sun junkies!

Posted by: God on October 22, 2006 at 3:58 PM | PERMALINK

"If Tressel gets his boys past that school up north (whose name must never be spoken), I will be resting much easier."

Keith: the bucks got a secret weapon: lloyd carr- a whining nitwit. tressle has his #.

That said, MI is awesome this year, but I count on the bucks to function much better against the Mi D then anyone has this year.

My call, bucks 27-10.

Posted by: jdw on October 22, 2006 at 4:23 PM | PERMALINK

Thirty to Twenty Seven - Hmmmmmmmmmmm

Posted by: thethirdPaul on October 22, 2006 at 4:30 PM | PERMALINK

Has the pool started yet on how many Trojans *this* year are ineligible pros receiving under the table cash?

Posted by: chaboard on October 22, 2006 at 4:31 PM | PERMALINK

Okay, that field goal by Tynes just took the sting out of yesterdays Ducks defeat.

Posted by: Global Citizen on October 22, 2006 at 4:48 PM | PERMALINK

Make all the snide comments you want about USC, but I don't see people around the country buying Buckeye Packs or Fighting Irish Packs the people buy Trojan Packs.


Yes, Tynes did atone.

Poor Quackless in Pullman.

Posted by: stupid git on October 22, 2006 at 4:54 PM | PERMALINK

"the way people buy Trojan Packs"

Posted by: stupid git on October 22, 2006 at 4:55 PM | PERMALINK

After that last minute choke to ND, I don't think UCLA will be as significant a threat. (Sheesh, where WAS that defense?)

Posted by: Harris on October 22, 2006 at 5:01 PM | PERMALINK

As a SoCal transplant living on the east coast, it is amazing how little respect USC has gotten this year. They have lost 2 games by a total of 6 points in the last 4 years.

I'm not even a USC fan, but the number of times I hear them being mocked as a soft team turns me in to a defender.

I do hope Notre Dame manages to get their offense on track before the USC game. That would be fun to watch.

Posted by: tomboy on October 22, 2006 at 5:12 PM | PERMALINK

*nervously shuffles over*

er, um, hi, guys.

i know it isn't like this matters in the grand scheme of things, but....

there's three teams undefeated still in the big east...

and the third one is, well, the state university of NEW JERSEY, of all places, who hasn't been ranked since I was 4 years old...

they're up to number 16 now, and are likely going to end the season with 2 losses, although considering they only give up about 8 points a game, i dunno, things could get strange...

anyway, sorry to interrupt, just wanted to give some props to a team that's had over a century of losing seasons, good to see that they're finally getting a head of steam, it's not every week that you get ranked above Oklamhoma, BC, and Nebraska, all in the same week...

anyway, sorry for the interruption, take care now...

*awkwardly shuffles away*

Posted by: jonathan on October 22, 2006 at 5:17 PM | PERMALINK

er, that should be OKLAHOMA^, of course, sorry again...

Posted by: jonathan on October 22, 2006 at 5:23 PM | PERMALINK

Oklamhoma

I get it. We somehow merge Oklahoma and (Ala)Bama...

Posted by: Global Citizen on October 22, 2006 at 5:33 PM | PERMALINK

Two words: GO BEARS!!!

Posted by: adlsad on October 22, 2006 at 5:41 PM | PERMALINK

Saturday, November 18, 2006: Final Score, California Golden Bears 49, USC Condoms 6.

Posted by: adlsad on October 22, 2006 at 5:45 PM | PERMALINK

"I'm not even a USC fan, but the number of times I hear them being mocked as a soft team turns me in to a defender."

well, they do need defenders. all o, no d.

some thought last year's bowl game some sort of game for the ages. all i saw was two teams with no d.

Posted by: jdw on October 22, 2006 at 6:21 PM | PERMALINK

Don't overlook USC's trip up to Palo Alto...

Ah, hell, who am I kidding?

We're apparently celebrating our new stadium this year by giving away victories to anyone who comes to visit.

* sigh *

Posted by: SoupCatcher on October 22, 2006 at 6:36 PM | PERMALINK

I believe the main reason that USC has the soft reputation is that over the last 2 years, the PAC-10 has been a little underachieving relative to the other conferences. This can be seen by looking at how the number 2 and 3 teams in this conference fair in bowl games with comparable teams from other conferences.

In the Holiday Bowl, for example, Cal and Oregon have lost in consecutive years to 3 and 4 loss teams from the Big 12 (Texas Tech and OU).

USC was a vastly superior team relative to any other team in the conference. They have come back to the pack this year, and the rest of the conference is improved somewhat. The USC backfield is far from the best in the country, and the defense, while opportunistic, can be scored upon. This team could be undefeated at the end of this year. They also could lose 3 out of 4 games to finish.

Posted by: Kirok on October 22, 2006 at 6:45 PM | PERMALINK

Cal is goin to be beat USC.

Posted by: rajkmd on October 22, 2006 at 7:15 PM | PERMALINK

SoupCatcher,

I feel your pain. I really do, even though I am a Cal Alumni. It wasn't so long ago that Cal had a 1-11 season. And when I went to Cal, Stanford ALWAYS won the Big Game.

So buck up lad, there's nowhere to go but up.

Posted by: adlsad on October 22, 2006 at 7:29 PM | PERMALINK

College sucks and so do the players, it's like listening to some drunk Alabamian at a Nascar race talk about his favorite team, all in all it means nothing,,bragging rights for bench sitting braggarts.

Posted by: Dog_named_Boo on October 22, 2006 at 7:47 PM | PERMALINK

Woooo I am a USC graduate that never played ball and WE kicked your ass!!..wooooo!


The contest really is who can get the drunkest and be the biggest fool in the support of 'their' team and make the most obnoxious rant.

Posted by: Dog_named_Boo on October 22, 2006 at 7:53 PM | PERMALINK

As pointed out above the real championship game will be on Nov 18. It would have been a forgone conclusion if it were held in Ann Arbor. As the Wolverines are going to Columbus the odds are a little more even.

Posted by: JohnK on October 22, 2006 at 8:09 PM | PERMALINK

JohnK,

You're partially right. The real championship will indeed occur on November 18. But it will be between Cal and USC.

Posted by: adlsad on October 22, 2006 at 8:36 PM | PERMALINK

Actually it's not the Fiesta Bowl either. It's the National Championship game in Glendale, Arizona.

Posted by: walterthmp on October 22, 2006 at 8:36 PM | PERMALINK

There's a lot more parity in the PAC 10 than I thought at the beginning of the season. Look at WSU and Oregon yesterday, or UW over UCLA. Like Kirok, I think SC has fallen off the pace, at least offensively, after Leinart, Bush and White left. And I wouldn't make too much out of early season victories. Nebraska and Arkansas are better teams now than when they played Southern Cal.

If the Trojans can beat Cal and Notre Dame, I'll be surprised, given their recent performance against PAC 10 teams. If they do, maybe Kevin's right, but I doubt it.

Ohio State and West Virginia look like the most likely teams now in the Natioinal Championship game, although WVU shouldn't be, given their conference and strength of schedule. Personally, I'd like to see an Ohio State-Texas rematch, now that Colt McCoy has some experience under his belt.

Regardless of who deserves to go, I'm sure the BCS will find a way to screw things up.

Posted by: DevilDog on October 22, 2006 at 9:35 PM | PERMALINK

The last time I was home in Pasadena for a New Year's Day in 2002, it was Miami v. Nebraska for college football's supposed national championship (and I'm sure that Oregon fans will have something to say about that travesty of a matchup).

The change in the city's atmosphere was palpable, the result of a decision to forgo the natural spontaneity and decades-old traditions that accompanied the Rose Bowl's 60-year-old Pac-10 v. Big Ten rivalry, and chase the money instead. Although the game was a contractual sellout, for the first time in its history the stadium was not full for a Rose Bowl game.

Now, consider that one of the greatest matchups ever in the history of Miami v. Nebraska football (or college footbal, period) - the '84 Orange Bowl - resulted in No. 5 Miami being elevated to No. 1 as a result of the Hurricanes' 31-30 upset over the powerful then-No. 1 Cornhusker team.

However, Miami only reached the top spot because on that very same day, No. 2 Texas was defeated by No. 7 Georgia 17-10 in the Cotton Bowl, a heavily-favored No. 3 Auburn struggled to a lackluster come-from-behind 9-7 win over an outmanned but inspired Michigan team in the Sugar Bowl, and No. 4 Big Ten champion Illinois was thoroughly spanked 45-9 in the Rose Bowl by unranked Pac-10 champ UCLA (whose 6-4-1 regular season record still qualifies, ironically, as the worst in Rose Bowl history).

Each major bowl game during that New Year's Day period had obvious implications on the eventual national championship. Thanks to the BCS's and network television's greed-driven obsession with subjectively matching No. 1 and No. 2, such scenarios are no longer possible.

Therefore, the entire college bowl season - save for one game - has been rendered, for all practical purposes, irrelevant.

For sure, the previous so-called system for determining college football's national championship was subjective and imperfect. So what! Can we truly and honestly say that what's in place now has been any better?

OK, last season we got a No. 1-No. 2 matchup between an undefeated Texas and and undefeated USC. Again, so what! That was simply due to the fortune of circumstance than the BCS's magic formula. How would the BCS have accommodated or dealt with an undefeated Big 10 champion Penn State, if Michigan had failed to convert on the last play of that one game?

Last season notwithstanding, the BCS has not only been just as subjective and imperfect as any of its predecessors or the polls themselves, but also exclusive and elitist to the point of de facto segregation between the supposed "Haves", i.e., the schools from six Div. I-A conferences plus independent Notre Dame, and the "Have Nots", i.e. everyone else.

Likew so many other aspects of our American culture these days, the BCS is simply a culmination of an unwritten but greed-motivated policy that has enriched a priviliged few at the expese of everyone else.

In California alone, the greed factor has forced a number of collges that had rich historical roots in major college football -- schools like St. Mary's, Santa Clara, San Francisco, Pacific, and Long Beach State -- to drop their programs over the years because of escalating costs coupled with diminishing returns.

Even within BCS conferences, there is discrimination against lesser-known members. Can anyone logically explain why schools like Oregon, Oregon State, Washington and Washington State, during their recent Pac-10 championship years (2000-02), were all left to hover in the polls between No. 5 or 8 (or lower) all year long and watch other schools continually leapfrog over them during the course of the season - thus denying them any chance to play in a meaningful game with national championship implications? You know as well as I do where the better-known USC would be ranked if they had been Pac-10 champions with only one loss.

Is this the direction we want college athletics to go? Can we now see that this corrosive win-at-all-costs mentality is now beginning to permeate high school sports, as well?

I'm really not sure of any answers to remedy the situation can be remedied. But the lesson to be learned from this is simple, and is applicable to other aspects of life:

If it ain't broke, don't fix it, or let anyone else try to do so.

Posted by: Donald from Hawaii on October 22, 2006 at 9:36 PM | PERMALINK

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Posted by: mmf铃声 on October 22, 2006 at 9:50 PM | PERMALINK

I feel relieved knowing that high-quality professional football is still alive and well in Los Angeles.

Posted by: Equal Opportunity Cynic on October 22, 2006 at 9:59 PM | PERMALINK

Isn't it mysterious how everybody is protecting Reggie Bush and USC from the myriad violations of Saint Reggie and the Griffins as they sucked the blood from agents while he played at USC? Why? The answer is easy. It's in everyone's interest to let the story die in this new age of corporatism. Too much money invested in this over-rated, over-hyped player. Dis the Reg and USC and advertisers begin to balk which means less money for everyone involved, including the NCAA. I'll never let the story die, though, as long as I live. I've never liked double standards, even in this case.
"NCAA statutes prohibit student-athletes or their families from receiving extra benefits from professional sports agents, marketing companies or their representatives. A breach of these statutes could result in an athlete being ruled ineligible, and games in which they played could be forfeited." Reggie's signature on an agent's credit card receipt for expensive hotel bills, allowing his low-life family to chill free of charge in a mansion they probably left trashed, cool wheels for the punk......If the NCAA and PAC 10 do nothing, they will be illegitimate from this point forward and I would encourage all teams to ignore them with the threat to bring up Reggie and his family's gross violations in the future. Fine world we live in, huh?

Posted by: John Conley on October 22, 2006 at 10:10 PM | PERMALINK

I'm a Cougar fan. We haven't played ASU yet, but I think they are the toughest team we have yet to play. Why they don't get respect, I don't know. They've lost three games, sure, but who are the three teams? USC, Cal, and Oregon. The Cougs will finish third this year to USC and Cal, and ASU will finish fourth. You watch.

Posted by: John Norris on October 22, 2006 at 10:45 PM | PERMALINK

John Conley,

If the NCAA and PAC 10 do nothing, they will be illegitimate from this point forward....

My school plays in the Southeastern Conference. If ever there was a college sports league perceived as "illegitimate," it would be the SEC. The Commissioner gives lip service to cleaning things up, but seems very unperturbed as he counts the money in the coffers.

Posted by: Equal Opportunity Cynic on October 22, 2006 at 10:53 PM | PERMALINK

"For sure, the previous so-called system for determining college football's national championship was subjective and imperfect. So what! Can we truly and honestly say that what's in place now has been any better?"

Yes. Without a doubt. Next question?

The BCS sucks. But it sucks a lot less than what was there before. It's an improvement that will have to do until they wake up and institute a playoff.

Posted by: chaboard on October 22, 2006 at 10:59 PM | PERMALINK

John Conley >"..."NCAA statutes prohibit student-athletes or their families from receiving extra benefits..."

Oh for cryin out loud, this sorta stuff has been going on as long as there have been competition between groups & in college sports for longer than either of us has been alive; very few schools DON`T do it & the whole structure would collapse & students would have to go back to panty raids on weekends for excitment if it was to actually stop

Quit whining, college sports are the farm system for the pros so get over it & drink your beer

"There is no such thing as inaccuracy in a photograph. All photographs are accurate. None of them is the truth." - Richard Avedon

Posted by: daCascadian on October 23, 2006 at 12:32 AM | PERMALINK

And for the baseball fan who wondered why Kevin was talking USC football when the Fall Classic had begun, it's probably because he didn't want to be faulted for gloating about the fact that the winner of Game 1, on the road, throwing 8-plus masterful innings, was a rookie Cardinals pitcher from, ahem, the University of Southern California.

War Anthony Reyes.

Posted by: greenink on October 23, 2006 at 2:24 AM | PERMALINK

daCascadian,

WORD

Posted by: Jerry Tarkanian look alike on October 23, 2006 at 8:57 AM | PERMALINK

COUNTDOWN TO THE CUP: Only 12 days until Breeders' Cup Saturday - November 4, 2006!

Yellow Ribbon count, day 27: 2

Hook 'em, horns.

Posted by: CFShep on October 23, 2006 at 10:30 AM | PERMALINK

Kevin,

USC has one big thing going for it- the other 2 of the top three teams have to play each other before the end of the season. As long as USC remains unbeaten, they should be one of the two teams playing in the title game.

Posted by: Yancey Ward on October 23, 2006 at 1:31 PM | PERMALINK

Just a note- I don't take West Virginia seriously as a national title contender.

Posted by: Yancey Ward on October 23, 2006 at 1:32 PM | PERMALINK

Kevin, I don't know if you can count the win against Arkansas as a quality win. The team is very young and were on a learning curve with a new offensive coordinator. The Freshman quarterback and various underclass key starters either did not start or were in thier first game at that level. I wouldn't say that USC would not still win at this point in the season, but it could very well be another squeaker.

Posted by: Bubbagmaz on October 23, 2006 at 2:16 PM | PERMALINK

Go Bruins!

Posted by: greenjeans on October 23, 2006 at 8:25 PM | PERMALINK

Just a note- I don't take West Virginia seriously as a national title contender.
Posted by: Yancey Ward

Ditto. Wouldn't last 10 minutes in the SEC.

USC, Ohio, Texas or Michigan would have 'em for a snack.

Look at the other 'Big East'so called powerhouses now in the ACC. Miami? Please. The Hokies? Nope. Okay, maybe BC but they're not really very good either. When did these Big East teams suddenly start putting up such impressive W/L numbers? Ummmm...when all of the above left.

Doh.

Posted by: CFShep on October 24, 2006 at 10:29 AM | PERMALINK

Then perhaps CFshop can recall how mighty Georgia fared against WVU in last year's Sugar Bowl? Which was essentially a Georgia home game?

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