Americans are tired of incumbents in general. For a true picture, it would also be neccesary to check the competitive seats currently held by Democrats.

If every incumbent was voted out in favor of the other party, we'd have a Democratic congress.

I love it - now that it looks like the GOP may be going back to the dugout, we have to blame it on people being tired of the incumbents.

Man, it can't be easy living in this much denial...

Democrats should use the Republican candidate for the governor in Florida, Charlie Crist, to remind everyone about the Republican homosexual and boy predator ex-Rep. Foley. That should galvanize the evangelical vote.

LATEST HOUSE SURVEY

This survey happened BEFORE the liberal judicial activism of the New Jersey Supreme Court in legalizing homosexual marriage. Watch for a Republican landslide in the 2006 elections as values voters, people of faith, Nascar Dads, and Security Moms flock to the GOP because they are repulsed by the sight of traditional American values being destroyed by liberals and the activist judges.

Many evangelical priests are into hot-dip galvanizing.

in the second tier of 17 seats, the Democrats have kept their lead of exactly 6 points (50 to 44 percent).

Is a 6 point lead enough to hold off the Diebold treatment? I'm absolutely serious.

Wait till they paste the picture of Nancy Pelosi all over the 50 competitive Congressional districts and the voters flee in droves to the infinitely more physically attractive Dennis Hastert.

Hawk, can you show us any independent polls showing that a Dem incumbent is running behind a GOP challenger? The reality is that there aren't any competitive Dem seats. This is a one way street, and the House will soon resemble the actual American electorate (with a Dem majority). The Senate of course unfairly favors the smaller, welfare oriented states in the South and portions of the West, so it will take some time to rectify that imbalance.

so it will take some time to rectify that imbalance.

I say we tear off that band-aid by just ejecting the Southern states from the Union. If they're so superior, let them go it alone.

If we can't do that, I'm happy for California (no relation to Cali) to secede.

Dennis Moore, the Democratic rep from the KS-03, is a four-term incumbent in the most Republican district I have ever lived in. He is being opposed by some sacrificial lamb in an ill-fitting suit.

Emmanuel Cleaver in the MO-05 has a challenger, I think, but I haven't seen a single lawn sign or commercial. Likewise, Ike Skelton is cruisign toward victory. Those are the three districts I am in the middle of, and there is no competition to be seen, even in these extremely red states.

craigie, I hear you. Worst thing we ever did was win the Civil war. Second worst thing we ever did was letting the southern states re-enter the Union on an equal basis. We should have kept them as colonies.

I say we tear off that band-aid by just ejecting the Southern states from the Union. If they're so superior, let them go it alone.
Posted by: craigie on October 25, 2006 at 6:54 PM | PERMALINK

For years, I've advocated donating money to the Republic of Texas.
http://www.republic-of-texas.net/

Their motto is "the only chance for freedom" - and if Texas would secede, that would mean a very good chance for freedom. For the rest of us.

Plus it would free up a star for Puerto Rico.

Drunken cowboys and trail dust, tarantulas the size of dinner plates and fewer teeth per capita than the average meth recovery center - Or rum,awesome beaches, rum, cool island music, rum,

This survey happened BEFORE the homosexual Republican canditate for governor of Florida was outed. Watch for a Democratic landslide in the 2006 elections as values voters, people of faith, Nascar Dads, and Security Moms flock to the Democratic Party because they are repulsed by the sight of traditional Republican homosexual candidates sucking each others cock.

rum sounds nice

Damn it troglodyte.

Every time I see your post, I've to go back to dictionary.com. I only remember that the word is good to know, but always forget the meaning.

troglodyte-

A hominid species much more advanced than the neandercon, which suddenly and inexplicably disappeared from fossil records sometime during the early 2000's.

Im still sticking to
7 in the Senate and 33 in the house.

The World Series Talent ad tonight will not be successful.

Ah, Kevin.

Love watching the looney libs patting themselves on the back BEFORE THE ELECTION IS EVEN HELD.

Polls are just that - polls.

Just remember the other times these last few years you jumped the gun: ie, Fitsmas, Iraqi elections, etc.

And I'm gonna be hear howlin'.

70% of Missourians back the ballot initiative. Much pixel eye-rolling going on at KC Buzz Blog. Saint Jack (Danforth) issued a statement that he hasn't made up his mind on whether to vote for fellow Republican Jim Talent in the Missouri Senate race because of differences over stem cell research (his brother died of ALS in 2001).

Kevin wrote:
At least, not if Democrats keep fighting.

Should be:
At least, not if there's a Democrat on the ticket.

The only competitive race where a Dem currently holds the seat that I know of is the Bean (D) v. McSweeney (R) race in IL-08. Melissa Bean is a conservative Dem running in a district that is deep red, ie, it went for GWB in 2004 while electing her.

Oh, and by competitive, I mean that Bean is only leading by 19%....

"Polls are just that - polls"

Yeah, and Karl just happened to trot out his wide up doll for a very hurried press conference this morning.

"We don't, all is well, believe, benchmarks in Iraq, in, no taxes, polls."

Is a 6 point lead enough to hold off the Diebold treatment? I'm absolutely serious.
posted by craigie

This is not a democracy if we cannot have a verifiable voting system. We need a paper trail for every vote.

Are any of our representatives championing this cause???

Please guys let's not celebrate before the results are in.

I still get a headache when I think of November 2004 and feel disgust for Mr. Kerry who folded before all the votes were counted, hardly raising a question about all the irregularities in OHIO.

ppk - Barbara Boxer has offered legislation to assure paper ballots in every precinct in America. It was shot down by the publicans who have no interest in free and fair elections.

The Democrats' new stay the course commercial. GotDAMN this rocks!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6Jq0j80UB_c&eurl=

I saw that! I love YouTube.

"Duke" Cunningham replacement Brian Bilbray may face criminal charges over disputed residency!!!

I hope the Greenberg assessment is correct, but you can get a more sobering picture from the front page of the Washington Post. Right now, they only see 35 competitive House races. Of those seats, they say 5 are leaning to the GOP, 9 are leaning to the Democrats, and 21 are toss-ups.

http://www.wpost.com/

With memories of Fitzmas, let's not start celebrating too soon.

I saw that! I love YouTube.

Is this playing anywhere online other than You Tube? They just blocked it at my office!!

eno - send me an email and I will try to email it to you.

Sent it.

A technical question....if the margin in the first tier of 16 most competitive seats is 8 points and the margin in the second tier is 6....wouldn't that make the second tier the actual first tier in terms of competitiveness?

Thanks Global, I got it.

Why do they even bother trying to outsmart the likes of us?

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I am beginning to appreciate how when a thread has run its course, the Chinese spambot caps it off with totally gibberish (to us non-Chinese readers, of course).

Very Zen.

Al: "This survey happened BEFORE the liberal judicial activism of the New Jersey Supreme Court in legalizing homosexual marriage. Watch for a Republican landslide in the 2006 elections as values voters, people of faith, Nascar Dads, and Security Moms flock to the GOP because they are repulsed by the sight of traditional American values being destroyed by liberals and the activist judges."

Posted by: Al on October 25, 2006 at 6:44 PM | PERMALINK

I've always been curious about this. Perhaps you can clarify for me what you mean by 'activism' in this instance. Clearly the judges thought they were being conservative in not recognizing complete marriage rights to homosexuals. What about this decision makes it 'activism'?

It means any judicial action that the RRR (Rabid Religious Right) does not think kisses their ass quite hard enough.

Worst thing we ever did was win the Civil war.....Doug-E-Fresh at 6:59 PM

...Polls are just that - polls....egbert at 7:32 PM

Speaking of YouTube, was Kevin been blogging all morning?

Of course if the voting machines are rigged we may all be in for another rude surprise. Even a 99.9% disaproval rating would somehow translate to a 51/49 win for the Bush gang.

You mean that perhaps the Diebold has been cast?

gregor:

> Wait till they paste the picture of Nancy Pelosi all over the 50
> competitive Congressional districts and the voters flee in droves
> to the infinitely more physically attractive Dennis Hastert.

ROTFL !

Hehe ... remember when the WaPo described Dennis the Moral Menace
as looking like a cross between Wilford Brimley and Jabba the Hutt?

Bob

My summary of the political implications of the NJ Supreme Court ruling here:

Bob

Is'nt there anything we can do about Diebold?

Being an Oregonian I've always voted by mail so it's just in the last 2-3 years that this issue has caught my attention!

It boggles the imagination that many states would have a system where there is no way to recount the votes. What does such a vote even mean?

I go and press a button on a machine and the next day a private corporation tells me who won??????

a cross between Wilford Brimley and Jabba the Hutt?

Soon to be legal in NJ.

Gay scary brown Muslim illegal alien terrorist welfare queens!

MARRYING YOUR BROTHER !!!

-N-A-N-C-Y- -P-E-L-O-S-I-
-N-A-N-C-Y- -P-E-L-O-S-I-
-N-A-N-C-Y- -P-E-L-O-S-I-

What I fear is a political system so isolated by gerrymandering and Republican GOTV efficiency that the elections do not produce the results the polls seem so strongly to indicate. That will engender a real disenchantment with our politics, and suggest to some that it is time for more direct action.

bob h:

I'm really watching the way the public is reacting to some of the over-the-top attacks ... it's going to be interesting to see what all the outrage in TN is going to do to Ford's poll numbers -- whether that will create sympathy or just apathy ...

We know negative attacks worked before. But I'm hoping the public has become so jaded by it that they'll reject it this time around -- since nothing else seems to be sticking for the GOP.

And I wonder what happens when Dems start calling Bush a flip-flopper on Iraq in earnest ...

Because clearly the GOP has the traditionally Democratic problem of having a message that's all over the map, so it's not resonating with people ...

Bob

How is the Tennesee ad racist?

The left got it wrong on the Ford ad criticism.

Complaining about racism doesn't work in the south. Complain about campaign finance reform if you have a problem with attack ads.

Why don't the Democrats air commercials that have the North American Man Boy Love Association praise Hastert and the Repubs for their hands-off approach to a problem that is in fact a non-problem?

Done right, it could rival what LBJ did to Goldwater, the ad showing the little girl with the flower while the narrator counts down a nuclear explosion. It aired once but people still talk about it.

Having the Repubs explain being "endorsed" by NAMBLA ought to make for a fun stretch run into Election Day.

their hands-off approach

Don't you mean "hands-on"?

I check this map that Slate links too.

It looks like as long as Diebold doesn't mess with the numbers or doesn't have access to votes, the House is already leaning to go Dem and it's going pretty good in that direction.

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