No, it says that "new home sales" fell by the indicated percentages, not median home price. I think that's down about 10% on average from last year.

No, prices didn't fall that much: new home sales did.

everything's great, i mean it's clinton's fault

As others said, fix the paragraph "Prices in the Midwest are down 36.6%? " You mean sales.

Kevin - you're slipping. Or going too fast.

"Sales" are the number of housing units sold, not prices. Prices are down about 10% per the LAT article, apparently the most for a 12-month period since 1970. But the 36% refers to unit volume. Of relatively small importance to a home buyer or seller, but of enormous interest to the NAR and homebuilders.

Sales numbers? Prices? It's all so confusing! OK, so maybe liberals aren't the ones who should be regulating businesses after all.

Hey Kevin,

Just wanted to make sure you saw our site: Predict06.com.

Ours is a non-partisan, not for profit effort to allow communities like this to share their prediction in pools, with friends, and with the rest of the site community.

We saw that you created a thread for this kind of predicting pool yesterday, and believe that our site would be a great platform for continuing that effort.

Best,

The Predict06 Team

My brother is a realtor and recently sold his first home in the last nine months. Intriguing bit: the buyer's father was his realtor, but the buyer also has a realtors license. They negotiated a 3% commission for each of them. Added to the 3% the seller's agent (my bro) earned, the seller paid 9% commission in order to sell a house in a city they no longer live in.

I would expect to hear more stories like this.

That Midwest decline: people are not moving to the Midwest. There are no buyers in the Midwest.

The speculators have begun dumping. In my city the last few years speculators were about 30% of the buyers. When any market has more sellers than buyers, prices have to fall.

Yes, yes, sales, not prices. Fixed now.

Damn, you guys are fast. There were five comments before I even opened the site to proofread the post.

Hooray! I'm finally going to be able to buy a house!

1. Hey Cal State Disney... - anyone who's corrupt and on the take (i.e. Repubs) shouldn't regulate businesses either, and..

2. Hostile - you can't have more sellers than buyers or vice versa. Think about it.

I rent in the city and own the place in the country outright. But if the bottom drops out I might just take one off someones hands down here.

"That Midwest decline: people are not moving to the Midwest. There are no buyers in the Midwest."

There are alot of buyers here but not many willing to buy overvalued houses.

Here in Mpls Mn things are going swimmingly if you are a buyer. We had to choose from 133 places in my price/size/location area for the month of September alone. We only got thru 6 before we made an offer on one.

Our offer was accepted on the basis we had a quick closing last week. We did it and then found out that we had got it for about 35K under assesed value.

Our realtor said that if you are a seller get used to keeping your house on the market for up to 60 days and lowering the price a few times before an offer comes in. Supply is outpacing demand here and making the single family housing market look like the condo market...

Were we lucky? Sure the sellers were desperate to unload ASAP. But a friend who is relocating was relieved that he got out even on his house he just sold in September.

Listings will bounce back next spring, when everyone and their retirering grandmother will be putting their houses on the market at higher values than the market demands. Problem is Sales won't and many sellers, Realtors and Mortage brokers will be getting pretty desperate as well

The report also said that sales of new homes rose 5.3% in September over August. Some (such as the New York Times ) interpret this to be a result of declining prices. Others (Bloomberg) say it is because "builders focused on meeting demand for cheaper homes".

In fact, Bloomberg's story portrays the news as indication of an uptick. Its title is U.S. Economy: Sales of New Homes Rise Unexpectedly, whereas the NYT story's title is New Home Prices Dropped Sharply in September.

Take your pick.

Some of us live here full time, Kevin. We have no lives.

More telling than a slow down in existing or new house sales is developers putting the brakes on speculative building. There are X number of units of this in the pipeline, but things will slow considerably over the next three months. We're already seeing this in Hawaii.

On the bright side, Mortgage companies have dropped their rates quite a bit. Because, you know, they actually want peoples' business.

martin: the 36% refers to unit volume. Of relatively small importance to a home buyer or seller, but of enormous interest to the NAR and homebuilders.

Also of enormous interest to individual sellers if it means waiting forever to sell.

More importantly, historically reduced volume has been the first sign of a bursting bubble. The prices tend to lag.

This is just another pre-election dirty trick by the Democrats.

Folks moving south. Sales up 3% in Austin.

More info here

Folks moving south. Sales up 3% in Austin.

Those are Californian's cashing out. I know a couple families doing the same thing. They can't make their payments or consider a move the only way to make the type of profits people have come to expect.

"Not looking good"?

Maybe it's not looking good for condo flippers or homeowners who have an irrational obsession with their "net worth".

But for people who are currently priced out of the housing market things are looking *very* good.

So, I should continue selling out west and moving east. That way I can generally keep the cash pile going and, well, the IRS is after me anyway.

Home building/sales are a foundation for a huge chunk of the economic activity of the US.

Just wait until this ripples through the rest of the economy... I give it 4 to 6 months. It may not be a pretty spring. In the short term, the stock market will look rosy as speculative money stampedes from housing to stocks.

Later in 2007 as the 'real' economy contracts, the US government must raise interest rates to attract foreign borrowers. Then you'll see a tidal wave of capital flow from the stock market into interest-bearing investments.

This feels pretty much a replay of mid to late-70's. Un-funded Vietnam war spending under Johnson was the disruption back then... it will be un-funded Iraq war spending this time around.

They never learn. But heck, why should they. The 6 people we all work for always make money.

The demise of the construction economy is going to hurt AZ quite badly.

My point is:
If the mortgage brokers are desperate enough to lower their rates in an environment where the FED is raising (or holding steady) - then the economy will keep chugging along by dragging-out the refi boom. However, if oil prices go up again, the FED will have to move to counter the inflation this will trigger, which will sandbag the housing market even more.

Buford is right - this isn't going to affect the economy at all short-term. But after the election, when the oil prices go back up (let's face it, this is election-driven manipulation) we'll see some real pressure. The real question is; will the FED have any leverage to counter inflation?

Why did Clinton ruin the housing market? That bastard.

Shit. Meet Fan.

Another anecdote: a friend just refi-ed a $1M+ home on Nantucket - PRICES still rising at 10-15%/yr. Location, location ...

Does "Midwest" in that article include Detroit, Indianapolis, and other U.S.-auto-company dependent areas? If so, that could go some distance toward explaining falling housing starts there. Not too many folks in the car and car component manufacturing sectors building new McMansions this afternoon.

Here in SE Michigan we have the first or second worst real estate market in the country, depending on the day. The continuous downsizing by the automakers has had a ripple effect throughout our local economy. Downsizing causes fewer employees AND fewer second-tier auto suppliers causes more secondary jobs lost causes fewer consumers causes more businesses going under.

Add up all the unemployed and underemployed people from that list who need to sell their homes and you have a market glut, driving down prices. Add the job scarcity and you have a paucity of buyers, worsening the situation and driving down prices. Further add the instability for those who are still employed but could lose their job at any time and aren't about to invest in a house -- and it's worse still.

I have friends who've done well in real estate for ten and fifteen years who are getting out of the business because they can no longer support themselves.

The housing problem in the midwest is not the bursting of a housing bubble. It is, instead, the reflection of a lack of good, high paying jobs. There are simply fewer people willing to bet on the future. They are staying put.

Don't let the pundits fool you, the economy is not rosey in the middle of our great land.

There are lots of jobs paying $10.00 per hour, but you can't buy a step house on a $20,000 a year income. Not even if you are married and your spouse is making $24,000 per year.

We out here in the middle west need jobs that give our people hope.

"step-up" house.

The need for jobs that give our people hope is the reason I am a Democrat. You will never hear a Republican show any concern for the needs of others less fortunate, much less do anything to insure good jobs move into an area.

The housing problem in the midwest is not the bursting of a housing bubble. It is, instead, the reflection of a lack of good, high paying jobs. There are simply fewer people willing to bet on the future. They are staying put.
We out here in the middle west need jobs that give our people hope.
Posted by: Ron Byers on October 26, 2006 at 7:03 PM | PERMALINK

yes - but this jobs situation has been going on for 6 years.

About 3 years ago, after I had an "employment setback" in California - I considered moving back to my native Illinois - where, at least my wife could get a job, and we could rely on our family support (child care, etc.); and housing is cheaper in Illinois.

I did a little homework, and found that the employment situation in the Chicago area was WORSE than my rural situation in California. There were far more candidates vying for any available jobs there. So I stayed put.

So this job situation in the midwest has been there for at least a few years. The difference now is; folks that have been stretching and belt-tightening to keep their homes, are getting fucked by high interest rates on their re-fi'd OPTION-ARMs.

This is similar to the situation in the late 1980's, the Bush I economy was McJobs and High Interest Rates (caused by massive federal borrowing). (And S&L white-collar crime scams, one involving the President's brother, Neil). Bush I and Bush II presidencies have a lot in common.

. . . the US government must raise interest rates to attract foreign borrowers.

That would be investors, not borrowers. The U.S. government is broke having cast away about 20% of its revenue with the tax cuts for the wealthy and large corportations, and has gone deeper into debt than ever with the Iraq boondoggle.

Then you'll see a tidal wave of capital flow from the stock market into interest-bearing investments.Posted by: Buford

Not unless bonds begin paying a better return than blue chip stocks. Interest rate would have to go up about three percent before this happens.

In the Midwest the real estate market went from comatose to dead.

Foreclosures are up for the fourth straight year though.

Ohio led for awhile, but Michigan is quickly becoming the foreclosure capital of the universe.

Hey, sending our jobs to China and Mexico was a really swell idea.

JeffII;
Bond rates (as pertaining to ARMs)

http://mortgage-x.com/x/indexes.asp

Incidentally;

All the GOP crowing recently about the DJIA is actually just the result of investors fleeing the crashing real-estate market.

JeffII; Bond rates (as pertaining to ARMs)
http://mortgage-x.com/x/indexes.asp Posted by: Osama_Been_Forgotten

And?

JeffII; your comment was on whether you think Buford was right on a capital flow from the Stock Market into interest-bearing investments.

You said "not unless bonds begin paying a better return than blue chip stocks" -

The chart I linked to shows a recent climb, a peak, and a slight drop in the last month. So it looks like you're right - there'd have to be some stronger upward pressure from the FED.

One topic I rarely see discussed in popular financial press articles is factors that drive bond prices (either direction). It's generally understood that there's a relationship between bond prices and interest rates - but it seems like an indirect relationship - or at least one with a lot of lag. It took about 24 months after the FED's first hike for that to impact these bond prices.

The other thing we've typically seen - especially in the Clinton years - the stock market was often shy during rate-hikes. But now, we're seeing rate hikes, and the DJIA was climbing. That's because of the capital flow from Real Estate to Stocks (specifically Blue-chips).

Where the fuck exactly is all this money coming from?

Probably CEO's of crooked defense contractors who are cashing in on all this borrowed money from Bush. It's okay though - they borrowed the money from US, so they don't have to pay it back. We do. While we're also paying THEM rent.

The chart I linked to shows a recent climb, a peak, and a slight drop in the last month. So it looks like you're right - there'd have to be some stronger upward pressure from the FED.

The Federal Reserve Bank has nothing to do with pricing Treasury "instruments." It's primary effect in the market is for short term rates. This will affect ARMS, but has little historic impact on 15- or 30-year mortgage rates or other long term borrowing.

Theoretically, the Treasury (and corporations) can set whatever interest rates it wants for long-term notes. Currently, interest rates are still quite low. As long as China, et al., are happy with the relatively low return on U.S. bonds, they will continue to buy them. It is something of a vicious circle (not unlike a pyramid scheme). If everyone decided to sell a good portion of their dollar holdings, the U.S. economy would collapse, the yuan and every other currency would rise dramatically, making something like 80% of what we and everyone else consumes these days a lot more expensive. But since we wouldn't be importing . . . It's the same reason that OPEC doesn't put the screws to us to the extent they could.

In fact, it's something of a financial anomoly right now. The U.S. is broke, at war, and has a government in disaray. However, it has had little problem, apparently, selling sufficient amounts of low yield bonds to continue paying for its historic level of deficit spending.

At the same time, we are seeing what looks like a second stock market bubble at a time when the U.S. economy isn't doing all that well. So, as long as investors feel that the stock market is a better return (and again we are talking primarily about institutional investors, the hoi-poloi like us don't matter), there will be no move to bonds, which are currently several percentage points below the stock market.

This is just another sign of Bush's success, and I'm sure he has a bold plan to deal with any bursting bubbles...just like his bold plans for Iraq..and Katrina...and, um...

Okay, I got nothing. We're fucked.

Ahem! Portland.

'nough said.

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Huntsville, Alabama is going gangbusters now with new housing construction. Granted we're lower priced than most other areas of the country, but the Base Realignment and Closing Commission has several thousand jobs relocating here in the next few years. I'm interested in seeing just how long the construction boom continues.

I know this is off Topic but I just noticed that the WP pick up this letter from Rumsfeld to NYT.

It seems the NYT refuse to print Rummy's letter, and I guess that's cause Rummy trashes NYT.

On October 24, 2006, the Pentagon says, it sent a letter to the New York Times, which is says the Times refused to publish. The letter reads in its totality:

To the Editor:
The New York Times has once again repeated a popular myth to mislead its readers about Secretary Rumsfeld. We ask for an immediate correction.

Today's editorial claims: "There have never been enough troops, the result of Mr. Rumsfeld's negligent decision to use Iraq as a proving ground for his pet military theories, rather than listen to his generals." Whether or not the Times believes there were enough troops in Iraq, the claim that any troop level in Iraq is the result of Secretary Rumsfeld "not listening to his generals" is demonstrably untrue.

And read the rest of the letter at the link below.

Could it be possible that the press has decided to finally standing up all the lies of this administration? Bush is all talking about change in Iraq but Rummy is still there. Is Bush serious about change in Iraq, that is doubtful?

Jeebus, it's about F--ing time a major newspaper told this administration who is really in charge, the American people and not a lying administration that seems so coldly indifferent to what is going in Iraq.

Here is the link.

No housing bubble in the midwest, Kevin?

Really, you need to get out of Cali more often.

Midwest doesn't have a bubble? Hmm... Does overvalued and overbuilt qualify? I am in Wisconsin and Madison and Milwaukee such as housing markets. Both are building new homes and the old ones languish on the market because sellers are not willing to part with their property for less than they think they can get. Yes, not what market will bear, but what they believe is the fair (inflated) price. Some people have been trying to sell their homes just on the idea that they are at the peak of the market.

60 days in Minneapolis? HA! Minneapolis is zooming! Here, 60 days would be a fast sell! Milwaukee is suffering from a glut of new suburban subdivisions. They will suffer during the bust, but will eventually sell well. The problem is crappy old houses. There is a lot of that around here. In Madison, the buying market is actually not that bad, but the city is overbuilt with rental properties (lots of students, you know). The problem is that when rents go south, so does buying, since the market becomes flooded with properties that realtors try to get rid of to make up for the rent shortages.

Chicago is another story. It's ever expanding. The outer suburbs--over an hour from downtown at this point (on a good day, not in rush hour)--are building. The inner suburbs are languishing. The city is odd--several high-rise condos are being built downtown and on Near South Side, and the North Side will never suffer from shortage of buyers, but parts of the city are becoming blotchy, depressed. I doubt the housing market in Chicago will ever go bust, but the same cannot be said for commercial real estate. There is always the same thing will happen here that happened in Boston in the last decade. They overbuilt the office space when the properties were still hot and the market went south really fast. So office space rental dropped nearly in half, especially if a large company was willing to move its headquarters downtown. So the city (Boston) is nearly full again, albeit at much lower cost for the long term. But there are lot of commercial office space in suburbia that suddenly has become available. If that happens to Chicago, there will be a lot of bancuptcies.

But there is definitely a bubble in the Midwest--don't fool yourself.

Unemployment rates in the Midwest are here.

All the rest of the state unemployment rates here.

Don't have housing statistics in this compact form, but the original release at the Department of Commerce is here, and numbers can probably be had at this site.

Oh gosh another off topic item from Froomkin's lastest report - this from NRO, from Bush's "we're winning the war in Iraq" speech.

"At times during the conversation, the president seemed vexed -- not beaten, not downcast, but vexed -- by conditions in Iraq. Bush didn't say so, but from his words it seemed hard to deny that in some significant measure the insurgents and the sectarian killers are in control in the country, and that the fate of the American mission is in their hands. 'The frustration is that the definition of success has now gotten to be, how many innocent people are dying?' the president said. 'And if there's a lot dying, it means the enemy is winning.' He paused. 'That doesn't mean they're winning.'"

The thing about being the presidental face and not really being smart enought to be president is that Bush is lost, or maybe he's insane.

Cheney is certainly the real insane one, to bad Bush simply followed Cheney's insanity, despite poppy Bush's warnings. This war is getting really ugly and Bush doesn't have clue about what to do.

I like Froomkin, he cuts out all BS and boils every down to the basic facts, and its as if he's the only sane reporter out there in a media world that has really gone South while Bush has been in office.

And you should go and read the rest of it, as Froomkin writes this:

On Waterboarding

I noted in my column yesterday that Vice President Cheney called "dunking a terrorist in water" to save American lives a "no-brainer" in an interview on Tuesday with Scott Hennen of WDAY radio.

That was clearly a euphemism for waterboarding.

In my Live Online yesterday, I acknowledged that I had probably buried that story, and expressed the hope that someone else would pick it up.

I wrote that "given Bush's refusal to acknowledge that waterboarding continues, this should be taken as an official administration position until or unless it's clarified or denied."

Must be hell being the only member of the US press to question this administration, but Dan Froomkin is solid proof that the US press just isn't working, isn't doing it damn job, the press merely lets everything this administration does simply slide. The Press is only only interested in the administrations hearsay and gossip, partisan antics, and not the many laws the administration breaks, the horrid BS it delives.

The next the press talks about how people distrust them, there is a very good reason the newspapers are laying off people, it just to much damn trouble for today's so-call journalist to get the facts, and get the real news.

Heck, all those folks who bought houses might have to just, you know, live in them.

Some of those folks have to sell those houses to feed and clothe their families. Heaven forbid they need healthcare for a sick child. But good news, exxon-mobil cleared over 10 billion dollars last quarter. The economy is great!

Note to Idiot:

10.5 billion profit on 99.5 billion revenue is about 11 percent profit.

Oh, and in the same quarter Exxon paid about $26 billion in taxes.

Good news if you're a renter working for Exxon.

We've got an economy that survives on consumers buying things made by businesses that cut prices by moving their manufacturing overseas and laying off their workers, those very same consumers. When the economy started going south earlier, The Bush League reacted by dropping interest rates to virtually nothing. Result, home buying looked pretty good, but taking out a second ot third mortgage to "pull excess equity out of your home" and buy that big plasma TV, Hum-Vee, etc. looked even better. Of course, like W and Iraq, nobody asked "what if the future isn't rosy?"

Now, of course, they're being forced to raise interest rates - making mortgage payments at today's prices unaffordable to the majority of Americans. Yeah, the CEO-class can afford their McMansions, and yacht sales are booming - but what about the rest of us? More importantly, what happens to a consumer economy when all the consumers are working sustenance-level jobs and cannot afford iPods, home entertainment centers, etc.?

The drop in housing sales is the first domino. Hand it to W's sense of timing, or luck - it won't fall until after the election. Look for St. John McCain to campaign on the issue of rescuing us from those nasty, partisan Democrats (and those Republicans duped into partisan behavior by Bill Clinton's mind control tactics) and promising to lead us back to a centrist paradise as soon as the next few dominoes fall. "Don't Blame Republicans for Following Bush" will be the 2007 mantra - you can see it from all the right-wingnut pundits already starting to criticize W.

Until recently, we were building new construction like crazy in Michigan. There's just no need for it anymore, and we have a piss poor economy because we can't even compete with other states, let alone other countries, in attracting businesses. In this day and age, Michigan doesn't have the geographical advantage for manufacturing that it did. [We need to make more accomodations for pharmacuticals and develop our healthcare service industry. We to attract businesses so we'll have employees to tax.]

I read an article just a few months ago (can't remember where) that predicted that the Midwest would see the greatest hits from any decline in the housing market. Why? Because, unlike on the Coasts, where limits on buildable land IS a significant factor in high housing costs, builders in the Midwest have had unlimited room to continuously build out from cities and older suburban communities. In doing so they have cannibalized those older communities for potential buyers. The new housing market there, in other words, hasn't been fed by economic growth and a flood of newcomers coming into the area, but rather, by residents of older local communities moving outward to newer, larger homes in newer (higher status?) communities (built on a plentiful supply of cheap land, and favorable interest rates).

Without real economic growth (other than that produced by the building itself) to increase the potential market of home buyers, serious over-building was inevitable.

Interesting that here in Portland, OR, I can have a casual conversation with realtors about the worth of our house and, invariably, they will usually speak of the high end being about 25 thousand less than six months ago. In addition, inventory is building
Portland has a similar problem to other cities with old inner areas. As the land value has increased, one finds many older ka-ching type homes with inflated prices. While I really like to live in the city, are the remodeling costs really worth the effort? At some point in viewing older homes, I think "Bones be damned, do I really want to spend the next three years in a ka-ching, ka-ching mode"?

Does anyone out there know anything about the Louisville, KY market? Went online to their local paper and found a slew of fairly large lots with 3 to 4 bedrooms and two+ baths for plus and minus 200 thousand. But, moving from a great weather very blue city to a very hot and humid one with cold winters and being in a very red state, hmmmm? But, then there is Churchill Downs for the Derby.

The Midwest would be a least-bubble region, except that it is also a pitiful-job region. Ford plants. Sprint, which has dumped jobs by the thousands. Call centers for banks and other industries, which have taken a holiday in India. IT, which has likewise migrated out. Family farms that have consolidated into factories.

You get the picture. So even though inflation of real estate isn't like the coasts, inflation of salary has never been near that, either, and now it is *much* worse. Who wants to spend over 100K on a shack? Ptui!

My brother-in-law has only been working 25 hours each week in construction. That's 62.5% of a 40 hour week, so that correlates pretty well with a 36.6% drop in new Midwest home sales. Coincidence, I know.

I think part of the reason existing home sales are so slow in the Midwest is that the abundance of land has led to an abundance of new houses. Therefore, you're competing with your 20-year old house again fresh new ones.

why does my house hate America?

Economists Are Destroying America

Economists, politicians, and executives from both parties have promised American families that “free” trade policies like NAFTA, CAFTA, and WTO/CHINA would accomplish three things:

• Increase wages
• Create trade surpluses (for the US)
• Reduce illegal immigration

Well, their trade policies have been in effect for about 15 years. Let’s review the results:

• Declining real wages for 80% of working Americans (while healthcare, education, and childcare costs skyrocket)
• A record-high 46 million Americans who don’t have health insurance (due in part to declining wages and benefits)
• Illegal immigration out of control
• Soaring trade deficits, much with countries that use slave and child labor
• Personal and national debt both out-of-control
• Global environments threatened by lax trade deal enforcement

Economists Keep Advocating Policies That Aren’t Working

Upon seeing incontrovertible evidence of these negative trade agreement results, economists continue with Pollyannish blather. Some say, “Cheer up! GDP is up and the stock market’s doing fine.” Others say, “Be patient. Stay the course. Free trade will raise all ships.”

Even those economists who acknowledge problems with trade agreements offer us only half-measures—adjusting exchange rates, improving safety nets, and providing better job retraining. None of these will close the wage gap in America—and economists know it.

Why Aren’t American Economists Shouting From Street Corners?

America needs trade deals that support American families and businesses in terms of wage, environmental, and intellectual property abuses. Why aren’t economists demanding renegotiation of our trade deals? There are three primary reasons:

• Economists are too beholden to corporations and special interests that provide them with research grants.
• Economists believe—but refuse to admit—that sacrificing the American middle class is necessary and appropriate to generate gains in third world economies.
• Economists refuse to admit they make mistakes.

Economic Ambulance Chasers

Now more than ever, Americans need their economists to speak truth and stand up to their big business clients. Instead, economists sound like lawyers caught chasing ambulances: they claim they’re “doing it for our benefit”.