Let's say the number is wrong. Okay, so maybe the GDP only 'really' increased 1.5% in just one quarter. That's still an amazing accomplishment. That's like arguing over whether somebody ran a four minute mile, or whether it was really four minutes, five seconds.

As long as we make the pie higher, I'm ok with it.

Look -- the Dow is at a RECORD HIGH! The media has said this over and over!

Ignore the NASDAQ, or the S&P 500, or our income, or the the markets were always setting records under Clinton. CEOs are making billions, so everything MUST be GRAND!!!

I'm sorry to feed the trolls, I know it only encourages them, but-
1) It's a 1.6% annual rate, not 1.6% in one quarter. It's slightly under 0.4% in a quarter (allowing for compounding)
2) The population also grew at ~0.9% annual rate, so per capita GDP growth was less than a 1% annual rate. This is why a 1.6% rate for the quarter is considered pretty crappy.

On second read, Kevin is confused about rate vs. absolutre growth, so he is also a troll. And the linked article argues that the rate would have been 0.9% if autos were reported correctly, not 1.5%, or a per capita rate of 0. Good times!

Whatever the numbers, the bottom line is that both GM and Ford have cut production of 2007 models. They have eliminated third shifts and idled plants. Ford plans to reduce Q4 production by over 21%.

At the same time, Subaru is hiring 1000 new workers on a contract to assemble Toyotas in Indiana. Toyota and Honda are both looking to expand US production. There are large production shifts in operation that will cause dislocation and job loss. This will be due to higher productivity and lower domestic parts percentages.

Q3 was the clear the inventories sale on 2006 models. 2007 models have to be sold into a glut of SUVs and large pickups. 2007 model production will be cut by GM and Ford. More cars and fewer light trucks.

I look for the correction to be made next Wednesday. Until then "happy days." Never over look the willingness of this administration to "fudge the figures" during an election campaign.

Anyone who thinks the U.S. economy is better now than it was six years ago is full of shit. There are fewer people working now compared to then, wages were better then than they are now, and we are far more in debt now as a nation than we were then.

If one takes inflation into account, the Dow's current "record highs" are still only up to 80% of where the market was in 2000.

Anyone who thinks the U.S. economy is better now than it was six years ago is full of shit.

Ergo, American (chicken) Hawk is full of shit.

During Q3 all the major US automakers — Ford, GM, Chrysler — announced production cuts for both Q3 and Q4.

Now, now, Kevin, your just not looking at the right portfolio. Exxon/Mobil, BP and Cheron/Texaco made up for automakers production cuts.

In Bush world the only people who deserve to make a profit, is simply put, the big oil people, oh, and big Pharma gets alot of favor too. It's Bush's pay to play plan, pay the GOP and you can play, I guess automakers just don't lobby up enough for GOP taste, and Bush being King and all with no oversight, what is an automaker to do?

It's too late to re-tool for hydra-cell tech, nope, have to have money for that, and Bush has already give all that taxpayer green stuff to his big oil buddies.

What SP said above. The key point is 1.6% annual rate . Meaning about 0.4% for the quarter.

I want some humor along with the dry stuff. Will Norman Rogers be there at Brads?

Ergo, American (chicken) Hawk is full of shit.
Posted by: Jenna's Bush on November 1, 2006 at 2:32 PM | PERMALINK

American Chickenshit

Kevin:

No, I'm living for the campaign nonsense, and will be until the results are in.

Although your Yo-Yo Ma thread was a wonderful distraction :)

But the nuts-and-bolts of economic analysis makes my eyes glaze over ...

Bob

I see American Squawk is at it again, demonstrating it's inability to deal with real world facts and figures real world logic and reasoning and only to work from GOP approved talking points and ideas. If it not a GOP idea/statement it is always wrong and propaganda according to the American Squawk. I honestly hope this is a parody troll, because if this is a real person or even a GOP troll that buys into this nonsense it shows just what level of ignorance and lack of education even at the high school level is considered an acceptable amount to be able to discuss/analyze/evaluate such complex and involved issues as economics, warfare, social policy, military policy, indeed any and all policy.

The American economy is nowhere near as strong as many GOPers would have people believe. It is teetering on the edge of major dislocations between the doubling of the national debt under GWB, the granting of China significant ownership of that American debt (which prior to Bushco was seen by GOPers as a national security issue and an unacceptable thing, unlike nowadays where they appear to be quite comfortable with it) and several other significant factors stated below. There appears to be deflation of the housing bubble occurring, and it could still end up going much worse. Most middle class Americans live an economic life where they are one paycheck (or worse disaster) from complete poverty. A major fraction of the American population is living on their credit cards and the money they borrowed from their houses while the housing bubble was on the increase, sooner or later that debt will inevitably catch up with the American economy, both the government debt and the citizen's personal debt, especially given the way the bankruptcy legislation was written and passed in this GOP Congress and Presidency.

Then there is the increased health care costs, the lack of increased wages, indeed basically a flat stop under Bushco while inflation has cut into buying power. More costs have been downloaded to the American citizen while offloaded off the most wealthy citizens and corporations. This is not a recipe for economic health and growth, it is a recipe for economic calamity. Not to mention the track record of Bushco for constantly revising economic figures to look good during an election season, especially as the vote approaches and then having to significantly revise downward these figures and assessments after the election. Why anyone should trust the numbers Bushco puts out on the economy given this track record is beyond any reasonable comprehension.

"The Fed tracks auto production, while the BEA tracks auto consumption, which is the right thing to do for GDP calculations."

Kevin, I love you, but economics is not your strong suit. Car consumption is not the right measure -- production is. If inventories are sold off, that counts as negative investment (an inventory is an investment for the future). What GDP measures is consumption + investment (plus some other stuff), which adds up to production.

I think the great Ray Kroc say it best:

"This is rat eat rat, dog eat dog. I'll kill 'em, and I'm going to kill 'em before they kill me. You're talking about the American way -- of survival of the fittest."

A great statistical effort is being made to prolong the American dream. For some time now, government statistics have announced sensational productivity leaps for the US economy - productivity leaps that, strange as it may seem, haven't led to any rise in wages for years. This is in fact genuinely bizarre: Either capitalists are reaping the fruits of increased productivity all by themselves - which would be a political scandal even in capitalism's heartland - or the productivity leaps exist only on paper. There is much to suggest that the second hypothesis is correct.

Half the world is impressed by the low levels of unemployment in the United States. The other half knows that these statistics aren't official, but the result of a voluntary telephone survey. Many of those who declare themselves employed are assistants and day workers. Working just one hour a week is enough for one to be classified as "employed." Given that it's considered antisocial to declare yourself unemployed, the US statistics may well say more about American society's dominant norms than about its actual condition.

The US economy's high growth rates aren't to be completely trusted either. They are the result of high public and private debt. In no way do they express an increased output of domestically produced goods and services that the United States has achieved by its own strength. They say more about the successful sales ventures of Asians and Europeans. New loans taken by the US government were responsible for fully one-third of US economic growth in 2001. In 2003 they were responsible for a quarter. The United States is an economic giant on steroids - doped so its decline in performance doesn't become too apparent.

Toyota, Nissan, Honda, and Hyundai may have all increased both US production and sales. Auto making in the US is not just done by the big three losers.

It's very simple. The numbers were fudged for the election. When dems take the house back next week we can investigate who was responsible. If dems take the Senate as well we can expect that the departments will volunteer the group rather than wait for subpoenas.

When dems take the house back next week...If dems take the Senate

Dream on, sucker!

Kevin,you're 2 days late with this.Try to stay more current.

Kash and I have been arguing that perhaps folks are not reading the BEA numbers correctly. See my latest at Angrybear for the links.

Yes, the FED data paints a different picture. Possibility #4 - the FED data has a problem.

The economy sucks! It SUCKS, I tell you! Pay no attention to the statistics we've been using to track economic growth for forty years. We have NEW ways of figuring these things out, now.

If you can't follow the five-dimensional math, it's your problem, not ours.

re: Pay no attention to the statistics we've been using to track economic growth for forty years.

But the statistics are NOT being calculated in the same way as they were in the past. See for yourself at:

http://www.shadowstats.com

Can't the people in the federal government read a Detroit newspaper?

Like, duh.

Looking for StabilityFord will slash production in '07
By AMY WILSON | AUTOMOTIVE NEWS

http://www.autoweek.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20061030/FREE/61030001/1024

NOT JUST FORD, PARTS SUPPLIERS ARE AFFECTED, TOO

Auto parts maker to eliminate 900 jobs

http://www.fortwayne.com/mld/journalgazette/business/15900211.htm

AND STEEL ORDERS

US steel price plummets to 5-month low as demand dips
NOV 1: The price of US steel sheet fell to a five-month low in October as demand from automakers waned and companies delayed new orders

http://www.financialexpress.com/fe_full_story.php?content_id=145248

WHY ARE UNIONS AGAINST GLOBALIZATION?

Visteon cuts jobs, shifts work abroad
Auto supplier expands in India, China as it slashes costs and workers in America and Europe.

http://www.detnews.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20061101/AUTO01/611010354/1148

Delphi parts workers take buyout and lower pay jobs

http://www.tribune-chronicle.com/News/articles.asp?articleID=10264

As Rusty suggest, read a few Midwestern newspapers and it is clear why the GOP is losing in OH, MI and IN

This comment thread is not very good. Only SP deserves credit for having read the link and noticing that the dispute is about a 1.6% vs 0.9 annual growth rate. SP correctly points out a growth rate of 1.6% is pretty crappy, and 0.9% is really crappy. Do you suppose they were trying to fool us into thinking the annual growth rate was 1.6x4, or 6.4%??!!

now if gyp read the line in which the notorious 25.7 figure occurs for 2006q3 and confirms just what kind of an outlier it is (not) by looking at 2005q3 (22.6), gyp may have really made an improvement to this "not very good thread".
It was not unprecedented, gyp might have concluded. Moreover, the following quarter (-19) adding to a chunky 3.1% drop in GDP for 2005q4 suggests that 2006q4 may have the same sort of lousy auto component and GDP for 2006q4 could be negative.
No foolin.

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You guys need to keep up: read Roubini

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7b35B0E4D8-4B35-4764-8EB4-
56C7281CC8D7%7d&siteid=mktw&dist=nbk

Bob is excused 'cause I have a note from his Mom verifying that 'dry' economic data does in fact make his eyes glaze over.

heh

My quote of the day:

John Maynard Keynes: "The market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent."

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