Editore"s Note
Tilting at Windmills

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November 2, 2006
By: Kevin Drum

PRODUCTIVITY....Via Dean Baker, I see that the Bureau of Labor Statistics has reported the latest quarterly productivity numbers. In Q3, nonfarm business productivity grew....

0%.

Now, this is not the first time productivity has leveled out for a quarter. A 16-year chart is here. But two things make this slowdown noteworthy. First, it follows weak Q2 productivity growth, which means we've had six straight months of poor performance. Second, remember my wonky post yesterday about possible mismeasurement of the increase in auto production? If that turns out to be a genuine error, it means this quarter's productivity growth is overstated. We might have actually seen a drop in productivity.

I dunno. It looks to me like the housing market is collapsing, and that's the bubble that's been keeping the economy alive ever since the tech bubble burst. Is there another bubble to take over from housing? I sure don't see one on the horizon. At the same time, middle-class incomes the engine of economic growth have fallen over the past few years, and there's a limit to how much families can make up for that by piling on ever more debt. I suspect we've just about hit that limit and since the one constant of the financial industry is that it overreacts to both good news and bad, it's likely that they'll add to the economic misery by reining in credit even more than the fundamentals justify.

But at least they have a shiny new bankruptcy bill to help them through the hard times. I hope everyone who voted for that legislation is proud of themselves this time next year.

Kevin Drum 5:58 PM Permalink | Trackbacks | Comments (30)
 
Comments

All is peachy keen in Drexel Hill. Because we all worked without any help from anyone.

Posted by: Doofus in Pa on November 2, 2006 at 6:04 PM | PERMALINK

Shorter Kevin Drum: The economy is great, but I need some FUD prior to the election... so let's pull some arbitrary assumptions out of nowhere, then bitch at congress for compelling people to *gasp* pay their bills.

Posted by: American Hawk on November 2, 2006 at 6:07 PM | PERMALINK

Hawk is right -- except for lazy baby-killers, everyone is thriving!

Posted by: Al's Mommy on November 2, 2006 at 6:10 PM | PERMALINK

so let's pull some arbitrary assumptions out of nowhere, then bitch at congress for compelling people to *gasp* pay their bills.

LOL. Pretty funny AH. Especially since these are simply preliminary non-adjusted numbers. After they're adjusted for other factors I'm certain it will show a lot of productivity growth.

Posted by: Al on November 2, 2006 at 6:12 PM | PERMALINK

Here is MA the Dems want to make it possible for low income families to buy two-family houses for $40k or less, AND lower their property tax. Meanwhile, the rest of us, who do not qualify for such assistance because we earn "too much" yet can't afford a house on our own because we don't earn enough are fucked. Neither party gives a shit. Bush's tax cuts for the wealthiest, Dem band-aids for the poorest, and a big fuck you for the rest of us(those that actualy fund the Dem and GOP policies)

Posted by: Marcus Wellby on November 2, 2006 at 6:14 PM | PERMALINK

Good point Al.

Question of the day: Would Kevin Drum be posting about these preliminary non-adjusted numbers if they reflected the great economy? Probably not.

Posted by: American Hawk on November 2, 2006 at 6:14 PM | PERMALINK

Just another sign of the "Bush League Economy."

Posted by: AngryOne on November 2, 2006 at 6:14 PM | PERMALINK

Stefan Karlsson is spinning as good news for us lefties. He says that real compensation has grown relative to productivity. Yes, real compensation growth is slightly greater than zero (to quote that awful line in Coyote Ugly "it doesn't suck"). So for one quarter, the labor share grew. Not that workers are better off, but hey - he's one of those righties.

Posted by: pgl on November 2, 2006 at 6:20 PM | PERMALINK

I remember during the Clinton years when a high DJIA, relatively low unemployment and brisk GDP growth was lauded as the "best economy" evah.

Posted by: Jay on November 2, 2006 at 6:22 PM | PERMALINK

"Nice Kiss Alf", American ?ock

"Well, it felt nice on my lips AC", Alf

"But it was over in kind of a hurry, wasn't it Alf?" American ?ock

Its the loony left's fault AC." Alf

Posted by: Roger Rarebit on November 2, 2006 at 6:23 PM | PERMALINK

Indeed. It's also helpful to take a look at longer-run trends. I had some pictures up earlier today illustrating the slowdown in productivity growth, and how workers have not been sharing in the benefits of that productivity growth:

http://streetlightblog.blogspot.com/2006/11/is-great-productivity-boom-over.html

Posted by: Kash on November 2, 2006 at 6:26 PM | PERMALINK

Al And AH are right why should we be looking at any numbers before and eletion.Shame on you Dems.

Posted by: Thomas2.0 on November 2, 2006 at 6:36 PM | PERMALINK

Al and American Hawk; get a room.

Posted by: oldgreenguy on November 2, 2006 at 6:40 PM | PERMALINK

Back to the stock bubble... duh.

Seriously, this is the fundamental reason Republican economics don't work. The rich don't have ANY economically useful ways of spending that much money. There are too many of them, and too much money, and all they can do is throw it at various investments that depend on other rich people trying to invest their extra money to drive up the cost. Thus overvaluation of late 90's stocks, then early 2000's houses, and now... back to stocks. What else is there?

And you can see it happening right now. It is no coincidence the breathless DOW 12,000 stories are coming just as the housing market collapses.

And not a single bit of that money has done anything useful, nor will do anything useful. Investing in those companies will not produce a single US job. The housing boom indirectly increased housing production, but ultimately is just going to lead to a ton of defaults. A lot of the areas where housing was built didn't even really boost the local economy much, because those houses were built with immigrant labor getting paid a few bucks an hour or US workers willing to "compete" with that wage. People got low interest rates and crazy borrowing programs as a side effect, but that is all debt dependent for fueling the economy.

Now, if that money was put into the middle and lower classes, it would get spent on providing the needs and wants currently absent in their lives that create real business demand, and fuel the economy in a non-debt dependent way.

Posted by: Mysticdog on November 2, 2006 at 6:46 PM | PERMALINK

All those tax cuts for the wealthy were a massive failure, weren't they? Job growth has been dismal by historical standards, since President Doorknob seized power in 2000. Bush is crowing about 6 million new jobs, but that pales compares to the job growth under Bill Clinton.

When will these conservatives admit that "trickle-down" economics is a discredited, failed policy, like virtually every other policy these conservatives tout???

Posted by: The Conservative Deflator on November 2, 2006 at 6:59 PM | PERMALINK

AND Bob Barker is retiring, which is bound to depress consumer confidence.

Posted by: BroD on November 2, 2006 at 6:59 PM | PERMALINK

Um, that's not how the financial industry works. They have to keep their capital deployed.

They won't tighten credit till the Fed does (either by raising rates or bank reserve requirements enough).

Posted by: Name on November 2, 2006 at 7:00 PM | PERMALINK

Job losses, productivity, whatever.

Now watch this drive.

Posted by: craigie on November 2, 2006 at 7:10 PM | PERMALINK

The question is will it be a recession, or a depression that's coming down the line. And will it start in the next 2 years while Bush is in office, or in the next president's watch?

I think it's starting now.

Posted by: James on November 2, 2006 at 7:27 PM | PERMALINK

When productivity growth was good, Kevin Drum complained about how Bush's misguided policies were producing a jobless recovery. When productivity growth is bad, Kevin Drum complains about how Bush's misguided policies are producing low productivity growth. I know this is only a blog, but it's hard to take this sort of economic analysis seriously.

Posted by: sean on November 2, 2006 at 7:49 PM | PERMALINK

Mystic Dog at 6:46pm is well worth re-reading.

Posted by: slanted tom on November 2, 2006 at 8:00 PM | PERMALINK

The economy is going to collapse ANY SECOND NOW!

Oh, please God, please God, please...

Posted by: dnc on November 2, 2006 at 8:04 PM | PERMALINK

This is obviously going to be the fault of the Democrats when they retake congress.

Posted by: Ruck on November 2, 2006 at 8:29 PM | PERMALINK

Debt is piling up for the government and citizen alike. America is an engine but how much gas do we have left?

Posted by: Percy on November 2, 2006 at 9:07 PM | PERMALINK

doom and gloom follow the housing boom...

Posted by: naughty but true on November 2, 2006 at 9:42 PM | PERMALINK

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Posted by: sd on November 3, 2006 at 12:11 AM | PERMALINK


AH: bitch at congress for compelling people to *gasp* pay their bills.

federal debt from 1/20/2001 until now: up 2.9-trillion (that's up more than 50-percent)


as to record high dow...

dow under clinton: 3241 to 10587
dow under bush: 10587 to 12100

and that's after pumping 2.9-trillion into the economy through deficit spending and tax cuts...

dead enders hate math

Posted by: mr. irony on November 3, 2006 at 9:42 AM | PERMALINK

The next bubble? Green/alternative energy and sustainable living technology. The difference from tech and housing? Rather than a bubble that can burst, it is one that we can't afford to allow burst.

Bottom line: this is a sector that we NEED, not just wish for out of the desire to pack the coffers.

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