Watch HBO for your answer.

Thanks to lying, the Democrat was going to win. Thanks to John Kerry revealing that Democrats hold our military in contempt, the scales are falling away from the eyes of the deceived voters. The ones that show the republican in the lead were probably conducted latest. Look for republican resurgence in the upcoming few days, as the party that hates the military, kills babies, and rob graves has representatives like Nancy Pelosi and John Kerry.

Well, the Benenson and DSCC polls are both partisan Democratic, so may deserve a discount for that. On the other hand, this time around I've thought the internal polls seemed to be generating the most likely figures. We should all stop reading polls; Nov. 7 will be hear soon enough. Although this time is seems like waiting for Christmas when I was a kid.

In general, of course, the reason Democrats are going to control both houses of Congress in January is that people are sick and tired of this kind of thing -- "[Democrats are] the party that hates the military, kills babies, and rob graves" -- and are looking for some really thoughtful dealing with the country's problems.

Others have said that the Tennessee demographics are so bizarre you just can't get a good sample size easily.

Who said that, MNPundit? What's special about Tenn?

As a Tennesseean, let me assure you that Corker's ahead. There's an anti-gay marriage amendment on the ballot, and the conservative evangelical vote is highly mobilized. The only polls that have shown Ford ahead in the last week or so have been Democratic-sponsored. So, yeah, we should, unfortunately, focus on Virginia and Missouri. Not much to see here.

Ford is going to win. Tennessee doesn't want to sacrifice a perfectly good seat to defend Bush for 2 years and then sit in the minority for 4.

Did I mention that Nancy Pelosi is a vampire who sucks out the brains of fetuses and eats them?

An internal Corker poll has him up by only 2. I think the race is a toss-up. The CNN poll had no experience there. If Ford's internal has him up 6 and Corker's has him up 2, it's probably in the middle. Corker will probably win because it's Tennessee and all. But Corker is not ahead by 8.

Oh, and what the fuck is American Hawk talking about robbing graves? I've never heard that one before. Why not just the old pinko-Commie charge too?

When Rove left this morning, he left a little note on my pillow that said mine will always be his favorite little rosebud.

Preacher Man Ford is going to win. I head him bust up Hannity's shit with some pabulum about Christian forgivenss, and a reference to Cheney shooting a friend in the face.

It's funny, but that one always brings the Wurlitzer to a screeching halt.

No.

All goes back to turnout. I'm in middle TN. Early voting stopped today and about three quarters of a million people cast ballots, which is a huge number for this state. Black turnout is very important. Evangelical turnout may or may not be depressed because Corker wasn't the fundies' guy in the primary race and Ford's been running hard to capture the Lord's flock, or at least put a dent in their traditional GOP support.

The black thing may end up working against him, but if anybody can pull it out, it will be Ford. Corker's support is soft, but Ford's supporters are diehard, and there may be enough of them to do it for him.

Since Iraq is such a big issue here, I'm thinking that an unidentified source of Ford support might end up being rural whites who have seen their sons and daughters (or nieces, nephews, cousins, neighbors' kids, etc) spend two or three tours of duty in Iraq over the past few years. A hell of a lot of soldiers from nearby Fort Campbell have died, and that's been a constant in the local news. It's a local base, and plenty of the dead are from Tennessee. The voters want a plan to end it, and Ford's offering more of a solution than Corker is. Ford's been reaching out to those people, and Corker hasn't, and that may be the Republican's undoing.

This is hardly surprising. Zogby and CNN are hardly reliable pollers. On Nov 1st 2004 for the Presidential Election in Wisconsin, Zogby had Kerry +7, and CNN had Bush +8. The actual result was a very narrow win for Kerry. They suck.

Corker wins easily.

Most pundits say there is "hidden prejudice" in polls that cost black candidates 3 to 5 points. I don't know that there is very much proof of that, but assuming it is true, why would the conclusion be that it is prejudiced people claiming they will vote for the black candidate, instead of non-prejudiced people who don't want to be thought of as prejudiced. Isn't it just as likely non-prejudiced people, or at least some mix? It is not uncommon for people to be in situations where they say something to avoid embarassment or disapproval.

I kinda like Ford, but he is a bit too much of a fast talker. He also obviously is changing his views to try to get elected, but overall, he is more in the middle than just about any other democratic senate candidate and probably would be good for the country for him to succeed politically.

What he ought to do after he loses is join the Marines (or another branch if he is too old for the Marines). It would punch his ticket to the presidency someday.

Elrod:

That's Hawk-speak for the so-called "death tax."

Bob

I'm in Nashville. A couple of weeks ago I thought Corker would win just because he's in the mold of the typical generic TN Senator, ala Thompson, Sasser, even Alexander (though he's soo bland). But then I heard my wife say that she CAN NOT STAND that man Corker. She's a Dem with no allegiance to Ford, but I kinda thought she might vote for Corker. Judging from how wrong I was on that one, I now have a feeling that Ford is going to win by a couple points. I think the overall voter disgust with Repubs in general will carry Ford...and that eventually those same voters will vote him back out after a term or two.

"...he is more in the middle than just about any other democratic senate candidate and probably would be good for the country for him to succeed politically."

That is true brilliance. You, David Broder and the Bullshit Moose should hang out in the desert, smoke some peyote, and see if you can channel The Middle.

It's Tennessee, remember. Ford loses (unfortunately). This is the state that picked GW over their own former Senator Gore in 2000. Enough said :-(

For what it's worth, CNN reported earlier tonight that Stu Rothenberg predicts the Dems sweep House and Senate:

JEFF GREENFIELD, CNN SENIOR ANALYST: Well this is an estimate of prediction that comes from Stu Rothenberg, who's one of the most respected and one of the more prudent political analysts in Washington. He's been on our air many, many times. And basically what he's said is that for the first time he's making this prediction, that state and national dynamics favor Democrats netting six seats and winning control of the Senate.

He's already predicted that the Democrats will take over the House and I can show you what's changed in his predictions...

BLITZER: Show us exactly what he's now suggesting.

GREENFIELD: This is the key. Virginia, we know it's one of the more contested states. He's now saying that the prevailing winds, if you will, favor Jim Webb over incumbent Senator George Allen, which would mean a Democratic pickup in that state and because of his other analyses, he thinks that Rick Santorum in Pennsylvania, the Republican, is likely to be defeated by Bob Casey. And he suggests that in four other states, Democrats are ahead.

That in Montana, in Rhode Island, and in Missouri, and that would be enough to give the Democrats that control. He's looking at two vulnerable seats, one in each party. He thinks Tennessee's a tossup, which is now held by a -- by Bill Frist. He thinks that's too close to call. And you see here, New Jersey now held by Bob Menendez, is too close to call. But if you fill in Virginia and Pennsylvania...

BLITZER: And Ohio.

GREENFIELD: ... and Ohio and then add to it -- thank you -- and then add to it Montana, there we go and Rhode Island. And what else am I missing?

(CROSSTALK)

GREENFIELD: And Missouri -- right. He's saying that would give the Democrats the six seats they would need for control of the Senate.

BLITZER: And the Democrats would get that magic number if 51 and that would be enough for -- first, for them to be the majority in the United States Senate.

GREENFIELD: This is important, this isn't a poll. This is an analysis. But it's by someone who tends not to be, you know not to be an outlier. He doesn't go out on a limb.

BLITZER: He's very cautious.

GREENFIELD: He was the guy who helped on election night two years ago, one of the first people to say you know what, Florida is going for Bush. He reads these numbers as well as anybody. And as you know, Wolf, in a world where there are 25 polls a day, where the political arena is kind of now in a state of pre-election frenzy. This judgment by one of the more respected people in the field is going to be the talk of the political world I think tomorrow morning.

BLITZER: And he's also, as you accurately point out, he's predicting the House of Representatives will go Democratic, but by an even bigger margin than he predicted before. GREENFIELD: This is THE so-called wave. Instead of guessing or estimating 18 to 28 seats, he's now thinking 34 to 40, so...

(CROSSTALK)

BLITZER: ... a huge, huge night for Democrats. We're going to continue to watch it, but Stuart Rothenberg suggesting, suggesting that the Democrats will be the majority in United States Senate...

The threat of a Democratic takeover maybe explains the recent sighting of a Mid-Atlantic Shredding Services truck at the Cheney compound.

The GOP has one hell of a machine here, I can assure you and I can hear its gears grinding.
Lots of bucks are flowing into East Tennessee counties and Sullivan County is allready reporting voting machine problems. Little backwater counties like Hancock , Grainger, Union and Grundy Counties and the Gay Marriage Amendment on the ballot may win this for Corker but I am not counting Ford out.
I think Corker really believes he should have the seat since he basically bought and paid for it.

The racist heart of Tennessee is strong and steady. But those red-necked peckerwoods would rather climb a tree to tell a lie than stand on the ground and tell the truth. I'm related to about half of them, so I know what I'm talking about.

American Hawk, showing respect to the military is somewhat nuanced since the U.S. military is hardly a monolith.

But the Neo Cons have used the military to invade and occupy Iraq. This has hurt the U.S. military as an institution as well as having killed and maimed individual servicemembers.

The Democrats are not in-sync with military culture in many cases. Mostly this is comes from ignorance and lack of personal contact which is arguably a form of disrespect.

However, the Republicans are merely in-sync with the authoritarian, hierarchical aspects of military culture. Neo Con Republicans clearly eschew the military traditions--especially naval traditions--of the commander be ultimately responsible.

Now that the Democrats are recruiting many more candidates who have personal experience in the military culture, the Democrats are going to be less benignly disrespectful. And the Republicans are blaming everyone except the guy who should be shouldering the responsibility.

Tennessee is not nearly the red state some folks think it is. Tennesseans by nature like moderates (think current Gov. Bredesen, who is going to win re-election in a landslide). Both Ford and Corker are somewhat moderate and this is giving some folks heartburn, I think.

Plus the conservatives are still pissed at Corker because he beat two of their guys in the primary. Plus the race issue does hurt Ford a bit. But then Corker's horrible ad backfired with a lot of folks.

Add all that to the fact that Ford's a pretty charismatic campaigner and Corker has all the charm of a doornail.

What you end up with is a pretty confused picture, even for those of us who live here. Nobody's gonna know who wins until Tuesday night (or Wed. morning). I think Corker will eventually take it (sigh), but it wil be close. It all basically comes down to turnout.

And I would not be at all surprised if Ford wins.

If you're wonkish, there's an interesting distillation of current U.S. Senate polls at
http://people.csail.mit.edu/jacobe/elections/senate.html

The distillation of the distillation?
Fair chance of a 50-50 tie (if you count Lieberman and Sanders as Democrats).

2 years ago the cell phone only people were 5% of the U.S. population. Now, I'm sure it's more. We know a lot of people with only cell phones. We also know a lot of people who screen their calls with answering machines and caller ID.

Which way do these groups lean? And how large are they?

I'm not sure the pollsters have caught up to the cell phone/technology thing.

Look for republican resurgence in the upcoming few days, as the party that hates the military, kills babies, and rob graves has representatives like Nancy Pelosi and John Kerry.

A.H., you are such a card. The Democratic Party wants to rob bank accounts, not graves. It would be interesting if inheritances were buried in graves, and left there. But no, they are passed on to people who did no work to get them.

the party that hates the military, kills babies, and rob graves

Drats again! I was anxious to lend this party my support when I was informed by my aides that it favors both killing babies and robbing graves. However now I see that it hates the military. Alas, I fear I must abstain from the present elections until this position may be clarified.

Every time I hear "grave robbetr" I hit back with the fact that R's have enacted policies that mean every child born in this country is $30K in debt.

I just call them cradle-robbers - in every sense of the word.

Drop the high and low scores, and Corker is up by 6 points. It'll be up to Missouri and Tennessee to clinch it.

I mean, Missouri and Virginia. Hey, and there's some sort of cool anti-abuse feature now. Good job, Kevin.

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The ones that show the republican in the lead were probably conducted latest. Look for republican resurgence in the upcoming few days, as the party that hates the military, kills babies, and rob graves has representatives like Nancy Pelosi and John Kerry.
Posted by: American Hawk

Spoken like a true Scanlon Whacko. Do you really imagine in your tiny world Chicken Hawk that everyone here is what YOU think they are?

You sound like some uhinged basement case wingnut.
Seriously dude, I am beginning to think you need to get outside more and get far away from the TV.

As for your post, Bush is the one that lied to the troops and told them they would not be used for nation building, I have yet to hear an apology for that from Bush. And it seems old Ted Haggard just slap the value voters right square in the hyppcritical kisser. Admit it Hawk, the GOP is the 'Culture of Corruption' AND perversion

Ford wins.

I have been calling voters on behalf of Congressman Ford. My sense is that turnout will be heavier than normal, which makes the race more difficult to call than usual. The fact that Ford is black is affecting some votes, but not as many as I would have thought, and this factor also complicates polling. Also, there is a difference between East, Middle and West Tennessee voting patterns in this race. It is possible that some polls are not regionally balanced, which could account for some of the discrepancy.

Another Nashvillian here. At this point I'm getting a bit pessimistic, despite those positive internal polls [Mark Blumenthal, who does some of those polls, points out that internal polls are no less scientifically done than other polls--their purpose is to provide the campaigns with needed info, after all--but the positive ones get released and the negative ones stay under wraps].
But you have to realize that Ford hasn't really shaken his own baggage. His family has been a visible and disruptive presence, notably in Memphis, where his ne'er-do-well younger brother is mounting an independent run for the "family" congressional seat against the regular Democratic nominee, Steve Cohen, a white guy and the closest thing to a "liberal" in Tennessee politics. Harold, Jr. has rather pointedly snubbed Cohen, and there's a lot of unhappiness with him in Memphis, especially since he's taken some disturbingly right-of-center positions, notably in support of the Marriage Amendment on the ballot. Of course, the left--such as it is here--has no place else to go, but the constant reminders that Ford's family put themselves before just about anything else can't help Harold Jr. Of course, on the other hand, Corker hasn't been exactly a vivid presence, and his latest ad--dredging up the old controversy about Clinton's 1999 FALN pardons to suggest Ford is soft on terrorism--is reprehensible. This southerner is praying hard that Tennesseans will show some sense.

The final 48 hours before election day will be devoted to ONE STORY -- the Saddam verdict.

The verdict in the trial of former Iraqi dictator Saddam Hussein was recently postponed until Sunday, November 5, two days before the U.S. midterm elections on Tuesday, November 7.

Thursday, asked whether the verdict would be a factor in the U.S. elections, White House Press Secretary Tony Snow said, “You are absolutely right, it will be a factor.”

Rasmussen has experience in TN. They have Corker up by one point, 48-47%, as of Thursday evening.

It's been pointed out that Tennesseeans commonly tell pollsters one thing and vote another in a race involving a black.

Someone has already noticed the cell phone problem with polls.

In addition, one sort of person will pick up the phone, find out it's a poll taker who wants to ask questions for fifteen minutes, and tell the pollster to go bugger off because the person has a life and more important things to do, and politics is not the be-all and end-all of his existence. Click.

Another sort of person answering the phone will be the kind of person who thinks the sun shines out of his arse, and thinks about politics all the time. He believes that the entire world is interested in what he thinks, and is as excited as hell that he got tagged for a poll. Incidentally, odds are good that he loves the smell of his own farts.

Someone should make a study of which type of person tends to be conservative, and which type tends to be liberal. It might answer a lot of questions on polls.

mdsand: "A couple of weeks ago I thought Corker would win just because he's in the mold of the typical generic TN Senator ..."

... not unlike Foghorn Leghorn?

anonymous: "The final 48 hours before election day will be devoted to ONE STORY -- the Saddam verdict."

I really hope that you're wrong, given the fact that his guilt has apparently already been pre-determined. It would only really be news if the judge came back with a not-guilty verdict. It would be a damn shame to spend 48 hours rehashing the obvious fact that Saddam was not a nice guy.

If the wave builds and isn't terribly diminished by the Saddam verdict, then Dems will take the whole enchilada. But, polls just now are pretty irrelevant.

Just now it's time for Dems to focus on the tight Senate races and be all over the country fighting for absolutely every House seat that's even slightly competetive.

Before this is over I want to hear of a Dem winning in South Carolina and Alabama! It's already happening in Idaho.

Holy shit! Just in case you thought that GOP incompetence couldn't endanger the country anymore than it already has, the congressional GOP and the GWB admin have combined their stupidity to publish heretofore publically unavailable plans for building nuclear weapons.

That's the 21st century GOP for you -- proliferating nuclear tech to ensure a perpetual state of danger and fear.

CC Weldon & Instafuckup feed nuclear info to Iran.

Ah, the Greedy Onanist Party strikes again.

I've lived here 13 years and still don't understand the damn place, but I'll give it a shot.

First, apart from Senators (who are federal legislators) the only office elected statewide is the governor. All other state officials are either appointed by the governor or by the legislature. This makes it difficult for anyone to gain name recognition unless they have connections (Ford) or money (Corker).

Tennessee has the appearances of healthy two-party competition, with Republicans concentrated in the east and Democrats in the west. But in reality, Tennessee is a one-party state where legislative business is done through a tangled web of gentleman's agreements between Republicans, Democrats, and lobbyists that an outsider can study forever and never begin to understand.

Despite the near 50-50 split (D's control the House, R's have a one-seat edge in the Senate) there is little partisan rancor because the two parties are basically agreed on everything of substance. There are a few extremist Republicans in districts with a big GOP majority; the heavily Democratic districts are majority-black districts who elect moderates that cater to the needs of their constituency. The classic style of policy-making here is to sweep everything under the rug until it blows up in the legislature's face; then somebody concocts a Band-Aid solution that holds things together for a couple of years until the process is repeated. That's more or less what they've done with TennCare.

Due to those circumstances, Tennessee elections are strictly popularity contests. Issues seldom come into play, because if you've gotten that far in state politics, you believe the same thing as everybody else. A Democrat can't win a statewide election in Tennessee without rural support. Memphis and Nashville aren't big enough to dominate the state, their suburbs grow increasingly redder by the day, and the next two largest cities, Knoxville and Chattanooga, are GOP bastions. Ford is behind because he appears to be too slick (and perhaps too black) for the rural areas. Another thing that I'm surprised few out-of-state observers aren't realizing is how reviled the Ford name is outside of Memphis. Harold Ford tried his hardest to distance himself from the less-savory activities of his family, but people know. It's just that their down-home Southern politeness doesn't allow them to discuss such things with strangers.

And now Corker's running an ad that will probably clinch it for him. The basic message is "Who do you trust more, the Washington pretty boy, or good ol' boy me?" It's the same "I'm a cracker, you're a cracker too" approach that worked in the past for Ned McWhirter, Lamar Alexander, and Fred Thompson. In a close race, that will probably be enough to make the difference.

There's also the possibility that the margin between Ford and Corker will be less than 1%, in which case the election will be decided by the courts, not the voters.

I'm just not sure I buy the idea that the Saddam verdict will dominate the 48 hours prior to the election. The Sunday talk shows will all be devoted to final election-eve analysis. Maybe it will lead the Sunday evening news and Monday evening news, but this is shaping up to be one of the most dramatic midterm elections in years, this is not a topic that will get swept under the rug easily.

So what exactly is going to happen with Saddam's verdict that we don't already know? Will his punishment be decided at the same time? If not, then it's truly a zero-impact story. He'll be declared guilty...so what? We already knew that. Every news show will seque with 'In other news in Iraq tonight, the death toll continues to rise...'

If the Saddam story had come out on Wednesday, maybe it would have had an impact...but Sunday? too late.

Webb's going to pull it out, so since these polls are totally unreadable, maybe the real question should be: is McCaskill going to beat Talent? if she does, Ford v Corker will be basically irrelevant.

No one cares about John Kerry's ability to tell a joke.

Not when you have GOP House Leader Boehner blaming the generals in Iraq for Bush's failed war. All the military papers are printing the story.

Besides, The full correct Kerry joke is funny, and the busted joke has a ring of truth to it.

And now the Republicans have to worry about gay conservative preachers.

How will the GOP handle all the sleeze coming from ...The GOP.

The discrepancies here aren't as wide as they appear. These polls are presumably conducted with the normal sample of about 1,000 leading to a potential sampling error of about 3.2%. But sampling error means when the random sampling oversamples supporters of one candidate, it will almost automatically undersample supporters of the other, since 90% or more of voters are in one of the two camps. Other discrepancies of a few points can be caused by the exact wording and especially how the polls judge who is a likely voter and what follow-up questions, if any, they ask to get an answer from a voter who initially expresses no preference.

One thing I haven`t seen mentioned much is the early voting & how any "November Suprises" are likely to be less effective because of it.

It appears from what information there is that early turn out is looking to be historical on the high side, that somewhere around ~30% of voters (in these areas) have already cast their ballots & the independent turn out is significant. These indicators suggest good things for the Donkeys.

Of course there is the "issue" of counting the votes...

No idea about Tennessee myself but I surely do thank the folks upthread for telling us how they see things there.

Best of luck to us all & our Constitution

"Enlighten the people generally, and tyranny and oppressions of body and mind will vanish like evil spirits at the dawn of day." - Thomas Jefferson

Brian,

Your suggestion Ford (if he loses) enlist in the Marines, damn good idea, and naturally its been done before.

Paul Douglas, a 50 year old University of Chicago Economics professor, lost the 1942 Democratic Senate primary. He promptly enlisted in the Marine Corps and shipped out to boot camp (he didn't stay a private for long, he was promoted to Captain). Douglas ended up earning a Bronze Star and two Purple Hearts for action in Peleliu and Okinawa. The wound in Okinawa led to his medical discharge as fully disabled.

He came home after the war and ending up winning that Senate seat in 1948.

Corker is going to win - I am in middle TN - I know people who normally vote dem that are voting Corker just because they won't vote for a Ford. If Harold didn't have the baggage of his family I think that he would have easily won. The Ford family is known throughout the state for its corruption. It did not help that his uncle, a state rep., was arrested earlier this year for taking bribes and then when his aunt ran to replace the uncle in a special election the results were thrown out by the state supreme court for voting irregularities. Too much Ford family corruption in the news recently.

I have a guess which I hope is incorrect. The huge span is due to a huge difference between Democrat sponsored polls and non partisan polls. Ford is African American. There is a known anomaly that African American candidates do better in polls than on election day. It is suspected that this is because respondents who plan to vote for the White candidate based on race alone are reluctant to express a preference, because they fear being asked to explain it (not just racist but dumb).

I fear that this distortion is especially big if the pollster self identifies as represeenting a Democratic outfit.

Sad to say, this means I should put much more weight on the non-partisan polls.

However, to myself I just average to 1% for Corker , too close to call, and hope.

My justification is that 95% intervals are just that and sometimes you will get a spread due to sampling error which is much larger than the average spread due to sampling error. My general rule is average all measurements unless there is strong reason to believe one is no good (and an extreme value is not, in itself, such evidence). Averaging improves forecasts immensly. Averaging one fairly precise forecast with 2 imprecise ones will typically give a much better forecast than the one fairly precise forecast alone. This is very very simple, but expert forecasters do not recognise it and make forecasts which are easily improved by totally ignorant me as a result.

See
Tilman Ehrbeck and Robert Waldmann (1996) "Why Are Professional Forecasters Biased? Agency Vs. Behavioral Explanations," Quarterly Journal of Economics vol. 111 pp 21-40 (February 1996).

Kevin, I'm surprised that someone of your mathematical sophistication is so puzzled over these numbers. They're not puzzling at all. First of all, get your numbers straight. Zogby has Corker up by 10 not 6.

Looking at the 3 polls that I can get numbers for (since I don't have the DSCC numbers) you get an average of 51-43, let's take that as the best estimate of the true numbers. Since these polls all have margins of error of around 4 points, we would expect sampling error to explain any polls ranging from 47-55 on Corker's number and 39-47 on Ford's number.

Lo and behold, none of the polls fall outside those bounds.

I'm just across the border from Chattanooga. If it weren't for one small peculiarity I'd give Corker the nod. But there's this little detail...

Chattanooga doesn't like its former mayor.

The general indication is that mayor Corker would have lost in a primary, then that Republican would have been the new mayor. He didn't do anything majorly wrong (by local standards), but every cut of the edges annoys someone and he'd cut the edges on too many people. The Walmart and 911 bits are the parts that got national play, but they weren't the only things.

So in Chattanooga what's got to happen is voters have to hold their noses a bit to vote Republican. Many will do it. But enthusiasm? Nope, not going to happen.

And that lack of enthusiasm will mean some missing votes, and those missing votes might be enough for Ford to slip past.

In other words, I think all the polls in Tennessee (and other states to some extend) may have a flaw in their 'likely voter' algorithm that slightly overstates Republican strength. But it's a gut feeling.

I love the Kerry-hates-the-military gag.

Did you hear the John Boehner one?

From this morning's Tennessean: Corker Runs Most Ads Of Any Senate Race. Not sure if this has any relevance, but it's something else to throw into the discussion.

As someone who went to graduate school in Nashville, let me suggest that the GOP sponsored racist ads combined with Corker's excuses has started to catch on with those in the state who abhor such racism. Besides, Ford is doing a good job of fighting back.

As mentioned above, the DSCC and Beneson polls are internal democratic polls and should be adjusted accordingly. What is odd about Zogby is that he seems to be trending 3-4% points above other polls in favor of the current leader.

My admittedly uneducated guess is that Corker is leading, but by a hair. Shave 3-4 points off Zogby, and you're close to the current trends.

Oh, and chickenshit, you really are a dumb fuck. Check out latest polls that show the Republican reaction to Kerry's misstatement have turned off voters more than the statement itself. So nice try, dumbass.

Since the President wants to ‘dance with the one that brung ya”.

According to the Wall Street Journal on 6/21/2005:

Ted Haggard, the head of the 30-million strong National Association of Evangelicals, jokes that the only disagreement between himself and the leader of the Western world is automotive: Mr. Bush drives a Ford pickup, whereas he prefers a Chevy.

That's awful close dancin' there partner!

Do you think the Evangelicals are still going to turn out in big numbers?

MeLoseBrain: No need to adjust internal Democratic polls downward. Major Democratic pollsters don't lie about their results, trust me on that. Frank Luntz is a different story.

Robert Waldmann: pollsters don't identify themselves when they do phone polls.

To whomever said Chattanooga & Knoxville are Republican bastions: Knoxville (where I live) is changing fast. Knox County is still reliably Republican - although it went for Bredesen in the last gubernatorial race- but the City went for Gore and Kerry, and almost elected a Democratic woman mayor last time - who was running against Bill Haslam (Jimmy's brother). He had the Haslam political machine and 3x the amount of $$ and she still almost beat him.

Tennessee politics are more complicated than those who don't live here might think.

Stick a fork in Harold. Rassmusen and CNN have him down 8 and Zogby down 10. While moderates like me like him, he doesn't deserve to be elected Senator with all his pretending to be conservative and moving to the right on various issues contrary to his earlier record.

Time for Harold to join the Marines and set the stage for future success that should culminate in him becoming a good president someday.

anonymous: Thursday, asked whether the verdict would be a factor in the U.S. elections, White House Press Secretary Tony Snow said, “You are absolutely right, it will be a factor.”

until someone points out that...

more americans have died in iraq

since saddam was captured..

than all his time in power..

Another middle Tennessean here-- lots of good stuff from other local types above, particularly dr sardonicus's observations about state government & the lack of real distinctions between the parties.

The truth is, I don't know how this is going to play out, mostly because I'm in Nashville proper (i.e., Metro Nashville/Davidson County) and of course Ford will win here, crazy family or no. I have seen some Ford signs alongside the "Yes on 1" (the gay marriage amendment, unfortunately) signs in people's yards, and along one heavily GOP street I sometimes cut across in the mornings-- more than one car still has Rush bumper stickers-- a defiant display of Ford signs has shown up in one section as well. But it's still Nashville, and from my brief sojourns into [very affluent suburban] Williamson County, there are a lot of Corker signs, as expected.

The two more psychological factors that I think may affect the vote here are a sort of stereotype-rejection influence-- while there's certainly still bigotry, I think there's also a sort of pride in possibly electing the first southern African-American senator since Reconstruction. Think of it as the heritage of the Nineteenth Amendment, the passing of which makes Tennesseans justifiably proud (even if we're pretty sure that the state would not provide the same deciding vote today). The other, related factor is how utterly embarrassing the GOP has become, and this does matter in the south... people tend to want to disassociate themselves from such a blatantly corrupt and willfully ignorant organization. Doesn't mean that the state is really becoming more Democratic, but right now the Republicans are making everyone squirm.

Ford is horrible. If we need him for a majority, i'll take it, but he's another lieberman. Loves to bash democrats to show how cool he is to the media.

I can just see his smug face on fox news talking about how foolish democrats are on whatever progressive thing we try to do.

Kos has thrown the towel. As I said, stick a fork in Harold. Head for the Marines.

I voted for Heath Schuler today - the first Dem I've voted for since Al Gore in the 1988 NY Dem Primary. I'm disgusted with the whole system. I hope Ford wins, but I doubt it, and I know for him to win Talent and Kean will probably go down too. This is my last comment before the election - if you guys are celebrating all ready, remember William Jefferson is still your rep on the ways and means committee on the day Ney resigns, and that we Repubs are willing to throw out our Charles Taylors for misdemenors while you want Alcee Hastings heading the Intelligence Committee. I'm going to go drink now - we could have had McCain, but chose this nitwit.

minion - there is hope for you yet.
I would wager when all is said and done - more Republican members of the 109th Congress will be indicted. I will even give you two free jailbirds since Repubs have 6% more members.

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I agreew ith "exhuming mccarthy."

Harold Ford, Jr. has always creeped me out. He has dead eyes. He's a calculating s.o.b.

I don't know Corker from a hole in the ground (which is what he probably is, as a Republican't). But I wouldn't weep if the Dems won every crucial Senate race EXCEPT Tennessee.