I started hearing the dismissal of huge Democratic pick-up a couple of days ago. And the latest one over on the DNC site by the resident troll over there is that the Democrats that will pick up those seats are not really Democrats, they are DINO's, they are closer to moderate publicans, blah blah blah blah blah.

Yes, but you're missing something important. Bush signed an executive order stating unless a swing of 50 or more seats is achieved committee chairmanships don't change hands. He'd let you see it but then he'd have to kill you.

Two things. First, I hope I am not screwing our team here, but even though I have been nervous all along, this sort of early concession is really encouraging. I hope it's true for not just the House but for the Senate as well. Second, yes, some of the Democrats running are certainly more moderate or even conservative than the typical representative at the base. But that's the difference between our party and their party: we may not always get agree with each other, but unless you appear to be screwing us right to our faces, like Zell Miller or Joe Lieberman, we don't try to use or screw you.

Say what?

You were expecting Ann Coulter to be historically accurate?

ROFLMLiberalAO.

Even more striking, the 5 seats in 1998 were a gain for the president's party, not a loss. So that's actually a -5.

Dems can have their powerless Congress. Our C-in-C and the VP have already declared that they will do what's right for the country, irrespective of the whether or not the weak-kneed congressmen carp about it.

The congress has already given the President all the power he needs to counduct the war.

Dems can have their powerless Congress. Our C-in-C and the VP have already declared that they will do what's right for the country, irrespective of the whether or not the weak-kneed congressmen carp about it.

Yes, that's nice, dear.

Regardless, if the Dems DON'T win both chambers, it will be a big defeat, quite frankly. That's not a popular opinion amongst my fellow progs, but you can't spin it away. I just hope we fucking destroy the goddamned bastards so all the Hannities and Coulters and American Hawks have is their little pathetic justifications.

You linked to Ann Coulter, and I tried it. I do read the other side. What's with her Veronica Lake look in her picture? She, of course, is hoping beyond hope, that the Kerry story will save the day for the Repubs.

Globe:

Heh. That's what Norman has been bloviating at us for the past week. We're losing the expectation game, blah blah blah.

For my part, I remain convinced that we'll pull 20-25. I'd much rather be pleasantly surprised than the other way around.

And my prediction for the Senate's still at 4 (the functional equivalent of 6 with two Dem-caucusing Indies).

I'm beginning to worry a tad bit more about the Senate -- about Teeter, especially. Less so Cardin, but still ... that race shouldn't even be in play. And I don't underestimate Linc, because Whitehouse seems to have bungled an investigation as AG, and Linc has very impressive liberal creds -- thus making Whitehouse's only viable argument changing the chamber ...

Menendez is hair-close, too, but for some reason I'm not so worried about my home state. Maybe because Junior is such a dawg of a candidate ...

I'm beginning to feel *slightly* confident for Claire, only because of stem cells and the lingering effect of beating up on Michael J. But truthfully that one really *is* a tossup.

As close as it's been, I'm becoming ever-more-confident that Webb's going to pull the biggest upset in the race. Allen is just a POS all the way around, and Webb -- though not a natural campaigner -- is a class act and a true Southern Gentleman. And he's been getting better in the last week. When he tore Allen a new bunghole over his "pornography" attack, it truly was a beautiful thing to see ...

Bob

Yes, the Democrats will-- at best-- boldly control one half of one branch of the government.

And that's their 'historic' victory, bound to be undone in two years after they propose endless baby killing, graverobbing, and troop-hating.

NTood:

Well, no. That in itself is spin. Nobody expected the Dems to take the Senate since about two day ago. If we lose it (and I doubt by only two or three) and take the House, that will still be a fabulous victory, not any kind of late expectation-driven "defeat."

I don't desire to scourge my enemies (heh, not much) -- only disempower them. And truthfully, with Pelosi in charge of both committees and the gavel, at the very least we can stop Bush's agenda dead it its tracks. Social Security piratization? Heh, kiss *that* one goodbye ...

Although an immigration package that gives illegals a path to citizenship as per the Senate bill probably would be the right thing for the Dems to pass ...

The resurgence of oversight -- even without the threat of chimpeachment -- is also something to be fervently welcomed.

Bob

You'd also have to look what the party that picked up seats before the big pick up - the few seats you start off with, the easier it is to pick up new ones. The Dems start off only 15 under a majority - it would be better to compare what the equivalent starting point was.

Also, both parties when in charge with reapportionment have worked towards creating districts that favor one party over the other (obviously in some cases to their own advantage) meaning that historically we have fewer seemingly competitive districts than has beentrue at least since the South stopped being one party.

On the Senate - the states where the Dems might pick up Republican seats - are Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Ohio, Montana, Virginia, Tennessee, Missouri and Arizona. Of those eight, six were won by Bush in both 00 and 04. So it isn't exactly hospitable territory to pick up the six needed, which is also on the high side of Senate turnovers.

End of the day - if either House ends up Dem, the world changes, irrespective of the margin. And this is a bunch who called a two point popular margin in 2004 a clear mandate.

Tennessee is lost, I'm pretty sure ...

Out of all of our candidates, I can't think of a better one to go down. Ford has always been too much of a triangulating slickster for my tastes. And it's really not ideological -- Teeter's way too socially conservative for my blood, but I have no problem with him at all; he appears completely uncalculated.

Bob

>>The congress has already given the President all the power he needs to counduct the war. American Hawk

Ah but... Money can be appropriated only for two years. This was done by the Founders to prevent the republic from having a standing army(hah!)

Apporopriations also must originate in the House.

Now Bush just might have the power to wage the war but those that control the House can fail to budget it. This makes it sort of veto proof in my mind you can't veto what ain't there.

....then he could use the Bush family money to pay for the war, but even the Bush fortune isn't that big, and I think he'd lose interest pretty fast if that was the case.

Richard Sullivan:

That's pretty much how the Vietnam war ended, as I understand it ...

Bob

An my pesonal favorite prepost election whine
the democrats didn't deserve to win
because they have no plan and they didn't do anything

Yes, the Democrats will-- at best-- boldly control one half of one branch of the government.

and the Republicans will continue to fuck our country up the ass, with crushed glass for lube, for the next two years. and then they'll blame the Dems for all the bleeding and infection.

Republican refrain

Democrats the accidental victors

Get used to the next spin line:

Democratic control of Congress will mean that the Republicans are in a GREAT position for 2008!

American Hawk - choose the cyanide instead of the gun. That way your mommy can have an open casket.

Kevin, how dare you use things like "facts" and "numbers" and "history" to confuse us?

If the Dems don't win back the House and Senate it will pretty much signal the end of the Republic. It's time for a change of direction in government. If election cheating seems to be responsible, there will be serious repercussions in the streets.

P.S. It's time to make that silly institution called the Electoral College fall into the dustbin of history. If the country can allow, without protest, the kinds of changes that the Bush administration is enacting, it can certainly allow for this. Constitutional amendment anyone?

Hey! HEY! This is a BIG deal to me! The Demoncrats could impeach me if they control the House!

Hey Ann! Charles! Where is everybody?!? I was your Dear Leader a few months ago.

I guess it's just you and me, Barney.

Um, Kevin - that's not improved gerrymandering; that's more effective gerrymandering. I'm just sayin'.

ARTHUR:
Victory is mine!
[kneeling]
We thank Thee Lord, that in Thy mer--
BLACK KNIGHT:
Hah!
[kick]
Come on, then.
ARTHUR:
What?
BLACK KNIGHT:
Have at you!
[kick]
ARTHUR:
Eh. You are indeed brave, Sir Knight, but the fight is mine.
BLACK KNIGHT:
Oh, had enough, eh?
ARTHUR:
Look, you stupid bastard. You've got no arms left.
BLACK KNIGHT:
Yes, I have.
ARTHUR:
Look!
BLACK KNIGHT:
Just a flesh wound.
[kick]
ARTHUR:
Look, stop that.
BLACK KNIGHT:
Chicken!
[kick]
Chickennn!

Meanwhile

Ann Coulter May Be Charged For Voter Fraud

http://www.shortnews.com/start.cfm?id=58080&rubrik1=Politics&rubrik2=US%20Politics&rubrik3=Election&sort=1&start=1

Over the next 24 hours the Republicans will try to define failure as Democrats taking fewer than 25-30 house seats and 6 seats in the Senate. Then if we only take 22 or 23 house seats and 5 in the Senate, Democratic talking heads will be expected to explain our "defeat."

Remember people until the last week or two only the most optimistic expected Democrats to pick up more than 4 Senate seats and it only takes a pick up of 15 for Nancy Pelosi to become Speaker of the House. Don't let the Republican clowns define anything. Remind your mainstream media people not to be fooled.

More on psycho Ann Coulter

http://edition.cnn.com/2006/POLITICS/11/01/coulter.voting.ap/

Also keep in mind that Rove's strategy has been to build a permanent Republican majority with total domination of elected positions, including control of Congress similar to the nearly uninterrupted Democratic control of both houses from 1933-1981 (only two years of 48 did the GOP gain control). And with this myth came all the flowing of power and money to the GOP. Destroying that myth is much more important than gaining 20 or 40 or whatever the number is.

"The national political environment currently is worse than it was in 1994, when the Democrats lost 52 House seats, eight Senate seats and 10 governorships, and when Republicans won GOP control of the House for the first time in decades."

http://stevegilliard.blogspot.com/2006/10/destruction-of-army-group-centre.html

"Bottom line: Thirty years ago a pickup of 25 seats wouldn't have been that big a deal...." - Kevin Drum

Kevin, can you be more dishonest?

Don't forget something else. Democrats are on track to dominate governorships across the country. That is huge.

Ah, Kevin.

Already counting your chickens before they hatched, huh. Just like 2004, when Frankenstien was supposed to crush Bush. Control of Congress is the Republican's to lose, the burden is on you!

Anyway, Coulter is right. You guys have to win over 40 seats just to reach the usual opposition level of seats this far into a two term incumbent president's term. You guys will never win that many seats.

Dems lose again! I love it!

"...and the Republicans will continue to fuck our country up the ass,..." - cleek

I thought you were for same-sex marriage?

I am sure all of you will join me in supporting Steele for the Senate furthering the minorities struggle against the white power structure. Right?

Jay & egbert:

Redistricting has made it an entirely new ballgame. In '94, there were over 100 seats in play.

Kevin is saying that structural changes (engineered by Republicans in the unprecedented way of computer-drawn redistricting in between censuses) has rendered that comparison meaningless.

Bob

Jay:

I think I'll support Ford, instead.

You have anything better than crude race-baiting, btw?

Bob

Well of course, anything is irrelevant when it doesn't support your conclusions.

People can still be influenced by platforms and policies and the majority still don't vote straight party tickets.

Of course you would actually have to have a platform to run on and a meesage to deliver. And it would also preclude the assumption of the vote as the Democrats do with minorities.

"You have anything better than crude race-baiting, btw?" - rmck1

Isn't that what is going on with Obama?

btw, he's a sharp man for a Democrat. And Steele is head and shoulders the better candidate than Cardin.

Jay:

The Democrats do have a message to deliver: Six in '06. Let's see if I can't rattle it off ...

1) Increase the minimum wage.
2) Let the government negotiate bulk-purchase drug discounts for Medicare Part D.
3) Implement the 9/11 Commission recommendations.
4) Make college loans tax-free.
5) Rescind tax breaks on the oil industry to use to develop alternate energy.
6) Expand Medicare to cover children.

But this isn't the point. Midterms are always referenda on the party in power. And when the party in power is hugely unpopular -- that means midterms are driven by negative energy rather than a positive agenda.

The idea that the '94 landslide was driven by the Contract With America is entirely mythical. Voters were pissed off at Congress. Ove 70% of voters didn't know what it was prior to the election.

Bob

Jay:

Steele is a charismatic and personable candidate to be sure -- but he's also very empty. His standard-issue solution to everything seems to be "we'll get all the parties in a room together." He really has a weak record of accomplishment -- and he was entirely a GOP tool prior to this election.

Now he's trying to dial to the left and signal his independence from Bush and the GOP -- but nobody's really buying it.

Cardin isn't terribly charismatic -- but he's been a solid legislator and has a much stronger command of the issues than does Steele.

Now Ken Blackwell -- there's a candidate who just completely *sucks* :)

Bob

So you want to ruin the economy, bloat the government and ignore National Security.

Hell of plan.

btw, congressional elections are local.

"but he's been a solid legislator and has a much stronger command of the issues than does Steele." - rmck1

Did you see the debates? Does Cardin even know of Metro's transit plans?

Command of the issues? Give me a break.

Jay

Are you paid by post or has the Scaife group put you on a salary like some of the others? I guess I want to know if you are going to be one of the lucky ones who gets unemployment.

Please try to keep up with the level of this site. If you want you might ask your supervisor what some of the bigger words mean.

Jay:

Whether you agree with the agenda or not -- my only purpose was to rebut your contention that the Democrats don't have one.

Why would I expect *you* to agree, anyway? :)

Election are local? So says Tom Reynolds (fiercely echoing Tip O'Neil).

It depends on the climate. The elections were nationalized in '94 because of the climate.

They are nationalized in '06 because of the climate as well.

Primarily it has to do with the Iraq war, which is sucking the oxygen out of everything else -- including the decent economy. The Iraq war has also made it pretty much impossible to demagogue on terrorism like last election.

Bob

One other thing, Jay, don't try to debate Bob, he will crush your soul.

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Jay:

Hahah, that's pretty funny, actually.

Do you know that after the debate, Steele called a press conference at what he thought was one of the new station stops?

When he got there, a reporter told him that it, uhh, wasn't one. When somebody asked him why he chose that site, you know what he said?

"They told me to come here."

Real command of the issues, alright. That appearing on the nightly news blew whatever advantage Steele thought he gained by playing "gotcha!" with Cardin completely out of the water.

Cardin may have not known the names of the stop when Steele played his little gotcha game during the debate -- but he still has a far better command of the issues -- including the new proposed rail line.

Bob

I'd certainly like to see the resident twit, known as rmck1, debate me and try to crush my soul.

If I recall correctly, I have humiliated his worthless carcass at every turn. If memory serves me, I have used his soul as my own personal asswipe rag and left him quivering like a confused douche in the middle of a village full of idiots.

He is, after all, the dweeb who believes that we need to return to class warfare in this country--all the while giving his idol Jon Corzine slavish praise.

You Dumbocrats aren't going to win anything on Tuesday, except a one way ticket to oblivion and back.

Norman, rmck1 is a confused Jimmy Carter liberal believing that Government is the solution to all problems and more hugs and kisses are needed to those who hate us.

Ron Byers is simply a mentally deficient idiot.

NORMAN !

*chuckling hysterically*

Still in top form I see, you old used snotrag you :)

How was the shopping? Did you singlehandly keep our economy defaulting to the Chinese, or what?

Bob

economy defaulting = economy from defaulting

See Norman -- even *I* make the occasional egregious typo now and again :)

Bob

Haha! You guys have to pick up at least 500 seats, or the Dems have to leave the country! In fact, you've already lost! Even if you win, you've lost! Even if you win big, you've really lost big! HAHAHAHA!!!

I smell desperation in the residing trolls, they're now trying to get everything upset with lame insults... I hope bob and ron will stop feeding them, trolls are cute, in their ugly kind of way, but feeding them won't help them grow...

Italian:

I disagree with you there, my international friend.

Feeding the trolls -- expecially such silly boys as Jay and Norman -- is *exceedingly* entertaining, and plus keeps the ol' rebuttal skills sharpened, besides. Politics is the art of forensic combat. En garde! :)

Jay:

So ... you were, uhh, saying about Michael Steele? :)

Bob

"You Dumbocrats aren't going to win anything on Tuesday"

So, Norman, how many seats are the Republicans going to pick up over there in Never-Never Land? Are you and Peter Pan and Ted and Foley having a good time with the boys?

Primarily it has to do with the Iraq war, which is sucking the oxygen out of everything else -- including the decent economy.

This little admission is the thing that will unravel you, you twit.

First of all, thank you for noticing! Those of us who actually have a stake in the economic health of this country and choose to live like human beings have nothing but praise for George W Bush and his skillful handling of economic matters. Unemployment is low right now--how many of you libs actually have a job that don't involve the wearing of hairnet and a name tag? Hmm?

Anyway, yes. This economy is doing quite well, thank you. The housing market--it's not great, but thanks to low taxes, those who have planned properly can definitely make money off real estate. I have always been more fond of the bond market--my old stomping grounds and the source of much of my own portfolio--but there it is.

So, tell us libs--do you agree with rmck1's statement? If so, how can you expect the American people to vote against the economic self-interest? Methinks few libs are going to agree with you rmck1, and we might soon have three or four of them tearing into you, as usual. Where is your little friend cleek to start trouble with you? Have you run off everyone who has an honest disagreement with you? You're a regular heavy hitter around here, aren't you? A self appointed traffic cop, eh?

Do you really think they're going to do that? Of course not! Don't be absurd. Oh, that's right--we're dealing with the height of absurdity--liberals!

Bwah hah hah hah hah hah!

It's the Republicans who believe Government is the solution to all problems, the only difference is they don't want the public to control the Government.

Norman, rmck1 is a confused Jimmy Carter liberal believing that Government is the solution to all problems and more hugs and kisses are needed to those who hate us.

Well, I wouldn't curse the name of James Carter too quickly. Yes, not a great President. A good man in a party full of religion haters, a man who knows the world is better with religion in it. I wonder if the libs know that the decent, God-fearing Jimmy is the real deal, as opposed to the piously pornographic Bill Clinton.

"A coalition of black Democratic political leaders from Prince George's County led by former county executive Wayne K. Curry endorsed Republican Michael S. Steele's bid for the U.S. Senate yesterday"

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/10/30/AR2006103001057.html

"U.S. Rep. Benjamin L. Cardin last night skipped an NAACP-sponsored debate in Charles County, Md., a day after the Democratic Senate nominee stammered and stumbled during a faceoff with the Republican nominee, Lt. Gov. Michael S. Steele."

http://www.washtimes.com/metro/20061026-114636-1765r.htm

Your reference of a bad choice for a photo op in a feeble attempt to discredit Steele just doesn't hold water.

Archie:

Nicely stated :)

Norman:

Three words:

The Iraq war.

Remember when GHWB tried to claim that the economy was beginning to rebound after a recession in '92, because two quarters in a row showed growth? He was technically right (because a lot of downsizing had occured in the 80s which set the stage for it, plus the tech sector was poised to explode) -- but nobody gave him credit for it? Just like nobody gave the poor man credit for his stewardship (very good, in retrospect) of the Gulf War.

Politics is funny that way. Many middle class and working class people feel highly economically insecure, over health insurance, job security and underemployment.

All the positive numbers in the world won't make a person feel more secure, if he feels s/he has reason to feel insecure. It's really that simple.

And the Iraq war has swept away any residual positive feelings people might've had about the econonmy. We're in hock up to our eyeballs to the Chinese, old man. Better hope they still have a healthy appetite for our T-bills for a long time to come, eh?

Bob

I smell desperation in the residing trolls, they're now trying to get everything upset with lame insults... I hope bob and ron will stop feeding them, trolls are cute, in their ugly kind of way, but feeding them won't help them grow...

Posted by: italian on November 4, 2006 at 9:39 PM | PERMALINK

This would be a plea from one of your liberal friends, rmck1, to stop humiliating yourself and ignore the likes of me.

Will you hear the plea? Of course not! You are the best liberal poster of all! You are the one who commands a legion of followers! You are the master of the English language and the one who has the truth on his side.

Well, fire away, twit. It's not like you can actually help yourself.

Jay:

You don't know jack about *either* of their voting records or positions on the issues, so I'd hardly be one to talk about what does or does not "hold water" here, my friend :)

Nice to see you endorsing the very same identity politics game you started to accuse the Democrats of upthread, eh?

So a few local black pols are endorsing Steele because he's the right skin color.

That's supposed to actually *matter* to a thinking person?

Bob

Norman, take a look at any poll done in the last few years - the majority of the American people don't think the economy is in good shape. Of course, you'll blame the media, but ordinary folks know when there wages and benefits really match the cost of living, when job security is there or not, when the essentials of life are within reach or not.

Norman:

Why would I ignore you and break your heart so cruelly? :)

Bob

"We're in hock up to our eyeballs to the Chinese, old man" - rmck1

"China now holds more than $700 billion in foreign exchange reserves -- the second-largest reserves after Japan -- with roughly one-third parked in U.S. Treasuries...."

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2005/09/09/AR2005090902025.html

So $250 billion is being in "hock up to our eyeballs"??????

Japan holds more. And, btw, they hold that much because they enjoy investing in a strong economy.

"Many middle class and working class people feel highly economically insecure, over health insurance, job security and underemployment." - rmck1

So now you know how people "FEEL". Is their no end to your arrogance.

Hey GOPedophile Norman, you didn't answer my question. How many seats do you expect the Republicans to pick up Tuesday? Hmmmm?

The Twit:

Norman:

Three words:

The Iraq war.

Remember when GHWB tried to claim that the economy was beginning to rebound after a recession in '92, because two quarters in a row showed growth? He was technically right (because a lot of downsizing had occured in the 80s which set the stage for it, plus the tech sector was poised to explode) -- but nobody gave him credit for it? Just like nobody gave the poor man credit for his stewardship (very good, in retrospect) of the Gulf War.

Bwah hah hah hah hah!

Did you actually live through those times or were you in a diabetic coma?

Two words for you: Ross Perot.

Were it not for that little worm, Bush senior would have been reelected and all of you libs know that for an indisputable fact.

The most hilarious aspect of your paltry attempt at analysis is this--you claim the current war in Iraq is an issue, and then you praise the handling of the First Gulf War! Hello, childlike fool--there would not currently be an Iraq War in 2006 were it not for the fact that Bush 41 botched the job to begin with, primarily because he listened to Colin Powell. Well, Bush 43 figured out that Colin Powell knows nothing useful and ignored him because all Colin Powell has accomplished in his life is missing the opportunity in 1991 to PREVENT the costly war we are now fighting.

And you wonder why people can't stop laughing at you.

Jay:

What's the Japanese mix? Maybe the hold less American securities than the Chinese, if they don't hold as high a percentage of them.

Jay, it's not what *I* know. It's been in the polling data all year.

Bottom line, economic news is all about subjective feelings. What do you think "irrational exuberance" is during a market or a commodity bubble?

Bob

Norman

Two thoughts about the economy. First, there are all kinds of $10.00 per hour jobs out there. If you and your wife work hard you can earn up to $40,000 combined. Not enough to raise a family, but since you and your wife are on social security what do you care. What our economy is missing are all the $20-$30 per hour jobs with benefits that have moved overseas. Those jobs could let a family live a pretty good life. Kids could go to college and everything. The American dream. To think our current economy is great you have to redefine that American dream.

Second thought. There is a war on. We have spent $350 billion dollars on that war effort. Guess what. Most of that money has been spent right here in the good old U S of A. Those war time appropriations are bouncing around our economy.

Like all wars, this one is on the national credit card. I don't know about you, but I have enough credit to live pretty high off the hog for several years. I don't because someday I'll have to pay that money back.

The good numbers we are currently enjoying, such as they are, are artifical. When the war is over we will have to pay back that debt.

We could make the war permanent, appropriate endlessly, spending money we don't have for decades. If we work it right we could even deal with the first problem I outlined above. A little tax adjustment here, a little minimum wage hike there and suddenly we could all be living the war profiteer high life. In the process we would sacrifice the lives of our children and the lives of millions of our neighbors on the alter of keeping our war machine humming along. That sounds sort of Orwellian. It sure doesn't sound very moral. You in favor of permanent war, Norman? Do you believe the book 1984 was an owners manual, or do you believe it was a cautionary tale? Hummm?

Why did Cardin unexpectedly skip the NAACP debate?

rmck1, stop wasting your time arguing with people whose brains consist of a hamster running on a wheel. You can argue with them forever, and you'll never change how they think.

Bush could rape his daughters on live TV and these jokers would still support him. Norman brags about his bond portfolio, but he probably couldn't manage a home aquarium without killing the fish. These dorks are like the Amway zombies who are making $900 a year while telling you how they live like kings.

Norman:

Score one with Perot. It's true that he spoiled the election for Bush; I can't argue with you there.

Norman ... we listened to our allies during Gulf War 1. We had a genuine international coalition, some of whom were Muslim and Arab troops. We even got Japan to pay for nearly all of it.

There was nothing inevitable about the Iraq war. The principles we upheld in GW1 -- the main one being protecting the territorial sovereignty of an ally -- are precisely what we violated by this current misadventure.

Now Norman, Republicans left and right have been falling off the wagon on the Iraq war. The Army Times just called for Rummy's head. Even Richard Perle said the invasion of Iraq could've been avoided -- and should have been, if he had any inking of how badly Bush would prang it up.

Why are you continuing to defend this dog with fleas, old boy?

Republicans in all but the most Genghis Khan-like of suburban dark red enclaves seem to be running away from it as fast as their little legs will carry them ...

Bob

TR:

I don't disagree with you.

I simply find it entertaining regardless :)

By all means scroll to taste.

Bob

So a few local black pols are endorsing Steele because he's the right skin color.

That's supposed to actually *matter* to a thinking person?

Oh ho ho! Nothing racist here, eh?

Well, let's parse what poor rmck1 is saying about the Dumbocratic Party in 2006: he seems to be saying that a thinking person would never endorse Michael Steele. I disagree--the endorsement of a politician is a personal decision and one should not automatically conclude that race has anything to do with it.

What you seem to be saying is that the black Michael Steele, who happens to be a Republican, is thereby a traitor to his race and should not be endorsed by anyone. And if someone does endorse him, well, they must be mentally deficient in some way. Yes, I think that sums it up.

How anyone could conclude that you are not making a blatantly racist and patronizing statement is beyond me--any decent liberal who posts here should rightly dress you down--but, no, you do rule the roost here and you do command a legion of followers--I doubt whether any liberal will stand up to you for what you are intimating.

Too many cowards and wanna-be traffic cops around here.

Well, no. That in itself is spin. Nobody expected the Dems to take the Senate since about two day ago. If we lose it (and I doubt by only two or three) and take the House, that will still be a fabulous victory, not any kind of late expectation-driven "defeat."

Uh...many people predicted a Dem takeover more than two days ago. Regardless, given the current political climate, spin aside, if the Dems cannot take advantage then it is a win for the GOP. They'll have prevented split government and the Dems, who have been thus far ineffective as an oppo party, will still have nothing to show for it.

A loss is a loss, no matter what the expectations are.

Norman Rogers has convinced me to not vote against Steele on Tuesday...

Two sock puppets attack rmck1 and yet he insists on making racist statements and debating with a mere troll, which is what the liberalitariat thinks I am.

Do you libs want some whine to go with your cheese tonight? Hmm?

Typical Norman Rogers. He is made to look the fool, so he declares victory.

Time to turn off the light Norman.

Jay:

Because it's a standard frontrunner's strategy to avoid debates.

Norman:

Oh posh. If you're a GOP supporter, by all means vote for Michael Steele. All I'm in favor of is not believing the hype that the guy's "independent-minded" -- because his record clearly doesn't show that.

Michael Steele is the one attempting to play the race card by taking liberal positions he doesn't believe in for the sake of getting Maryland blacks (over 90% of whom are Democrats) to vote for him because he's "one of them."

Hey, they can vote for him if they'd like, for whatever reason they'd like. It's a free country.

I just don't want anyone thinking that they're voting for something other than another GOP tool, is all ...

Bob

we listened to our allies during Gulf War 1. We had a genuine international coalition, some of whom were Muslim and Arab troops.

No, we followed the Powell doctrine, and look where it got us--a second war, thousands dead, and the job left unfinished.

Sure sounds like something to be proud of, eh?

Well, perhaps if the job had been done properly in 1991, we would have peace and prosperity aplenty right now. But we don't. We have people who want to destroy us and we have a world full of dangerous people. Do you really think you'd have the common decency to admit that doing nothing after 9/11 would have left you liberals screaming for the head of George W Bush?

So either he does nothing and you hate him or he makes an effort to change the Middle East for the better and you still hate him. No matter what--you just have hate. And the American people tend not to vote out of hate. Sorry, but the Reagan years taught us that optimism sells, and George W Bush is nothing if not an optimist.

Under what scenario would you actually credit our President? None? One where he surrendered to al Qaeda and handed over all of America's virgins?

Be honest for a change and your answer might reveal something useful for debate.

NTodd:

We'll have to agree to disagree, then.

Bob

Thanks for the obvious and correct response, Kevin.

Interesting that in the old days, events like Iraq would have given the Dems 50 seats ('58, recession, '66, Vietnam, '74 Watergate), but due to redistricting that protects incumbents, now the mid-term disaster is only worth 25 or so.

Oh, and I'll make your point for you--yes, the reprehensible Bill Clinton was an optimist as well, and that's why people voted for him.

There, you got me to admit something painful. But I can't help but notice that Bill Clinton probably didn't win because he made people hate George Herbert Walker Bush, and this hatred you liberals are fomenting for George W Bush has always been your undoing.

And you know it!

Oh, and the trolls are going to sound just like the Kraut on Wednesday -- flipping from the Dems can't win 'cause they're wildly unpopular to, "Heck, everyone knew the out party would get that many seats, no big deal, yada yada."

Norman:

Good gracious, look at all those pretty straw men ...

Norman -- NOBODY (save maybe for a few Quaker pacifists) believed we should've done nothing after 9/11.

Had Bush decided to focus on Afghanistan and -- especially -- had he called the Special Forces into Tora Bora when he had the chance to catch that tall dude on a donkey instead of ferrying them off to Iraq -- I think all of America would've supported him and his poll ratings (not all of them from rabid partisan Democrats, btw) would reflect that, as Bush pere's did when he successfully prosecuted the first Gulf war.

But -- once again, as even the neocons are admitting -- Iraq was simply a fool's errand. There's a piece up on the AP that said that the military wargamed this out in '99, and even with *400,000* troops (the minimum number they concluded could do the job), the odds were still good that the country would spiral into chaos ...

Bob

Typical Norman Rogers. He is made to look the fool, so he declares victory.

Cite, please.

And I'll have curly fries with that, my good man.

Norman:

George Bush is full of *optimism*? Really?

Then why is he running around the country trying to terrify everybody that voting for Democrats will provoke Armageddon?

He can't even talk about the good economic news like it's just, you know, good for everybody and a great success -- without using it as a fulcrum to wedge primal fear into people that those evil Democrats are going to make it all go away ...

Bush originally ran as a uniter, not a divider -- but, thanks to the evil genius of Karl Rove -- he's been the most divisive president I think this nation has ever had.

Bob

I agree with your assessment--I think the pickup
will be 20-25 seats. Having said that, the Democrats picked up 26 seats in 1982 and GOP picked up 52 in 1994, both first term midterms.

So the second midterms (1986 and 1998) were due to show smaller gains.

But it's harder to make reaaly big gains nowadays, so +25 is more like +45 twenty years ago.

GOTV

From here on all candidates and public speakers should drop ever last ounce of negative attacks or issues except for one…
Everybody Should Get Out and Vote!

Tomorrow we're going to hear the Saddam verdict and the Repubs will try to make a big whoop about it.

The Dem response should be, "Well then, VOTE!"

Dems shouldn't fear this situation. We're winning in all geographic areas, on all issues, in the House and Senate, on domestic and foreign affairs, on wedge issues and on real issues. We're winning everywhere people are voting.

Vote vote vote vote vote vote vote vote vote vote vote!

as Bush pere's did when he successfully prosecuted the first Gulf war.

Once more, again, and slowly this time:

Had the first Gulf War been "successfully prosecuted" to the extent that the threat of Saddam Hussein was eliminated, do you really think we'd be at war right now?

Thanks again, Colin Powell.

And you wonder why you'll fall short of taking the House and Senate on Tuesday--the American people have you sussed.

Norman writes: Were it not for that little worm, Bush senior would have been reelected and all of you libs know that for an indisputable fact.

Except that it's false...

In 1992, the states that were close enough for votes for Perot to make a difference had electoral votes that added up to less than Clinton's margin of victory. The states where Perot plausibly made a difference were: Colorado (8 electoral votes), Georgia (13 ev), Kentucky (8 ev), Montana (3 ev), New Hampshire (4 ev), Nevada (4 ev), Louisiana (9 ev), Maine (4 ev), New Jersey (15 ev), Ohio (21 ev). If all these states had gone for Bush, he would have won an extra 89 electoral votes. That would have put the totals at Clinton 281 versus Bush 257. Bush still would have lost.

I know that, as a conservative, you really don't care what the facts are, but just for the record, you're wrong.

Norman:

Once more, slowly, so *you* can get it:

Saddam was *successfully contained* after Gulf War 1.

A war to depose Saddam is *fundamentally unwinnable*. Colin Powell and Brent Scowcroft (and a host of other military analysts) were proven entirely *correct*.

Which part of either of these statements don't you understand?

Bob

Norman

I cite Daryl McCullough on November 4, 2006. It is too late for french fries. They would only make you sick.

Daryl McCollough:

Interesting breakdown. Never seen that argument before.

Thanks.

Bob

Saddam was *successfully contained* after Gulf War 1.

Bwah hah hah hah hah!

"One way or the other, we are determined to deny Iraq the capacity to develop weapons of mass destruction and the missiles to deliver them. That is our bottom line."
--President Bill Clinton, Feb. 4, 1998

"If Saddam rejects peace and we have to use force, our purpose is clear. We want to seriously diminish the threat posed by Iraq's weapons of mass destruction program."
--President Bill Clinton, Feb. 17, 1998

"Iraq is a long way from [here], but what happens there matters a great deal here. For the risks that the leaders of a rogue state will use nuclear, chemical or biological weapons against us or our allies is the greatest security threat we face."
--Madeline Albright, Feb 18, 1998

"He will use those weapons of mass destruction again, as he has ten times since 1983."
--Sandy Berger, Clinton National Security Adviser, Feb, 18, 1998

"[W]e urge you, after consulting with Congress, and consistent with the U.S. Constitution and laws, to take necessary actions (including, if appropriate, air and missile strikes on suspect Iraqi sites) to respond effectively to the threat posed by Iraq's refusal to end its weapons of mass destruction programs."
Letter to President Clinton, signed by:
-- Democratic Senators Carl Levin, Tom Daschle, John Kerry, and others, Oct. 9, 1998

"Saddam Hussein has been engaged in the development of weapons of mass destruction technology which is a threat to countries in the region and he has made a mockery of the weapons inspection process."
-Rep. Nancy Pelosi (D, CA), Dec. 16, 1998

"Hussein has ... chosen to spend his money on building weapons of mass destruction and palaces for his cronies."
-- Madeline Albright, Clinton Secretary of State, Nov. 10, 1999

"There is no doubt that ... Saddam Hussein has reinvigorated his weapons programs. Reports indicate that biological, chemical and nuclear programs continue apace and may be back to pre-Gulf War status. In addition, Saddam continues to redefine delivery systems and is doubtless using the cover of a licit missile program to develop longer-range missiles that will threaten the United States and our allies."
Letter to President Bush, Signed by:
-- Sen. Bob Graham (D, FL), and others, Dec 5, 2001

"We begin with the common belief that Saddam Hussein is a tyrant and a threat to the peace and stability of the region. He has ignored the mandate of the United Nations and is building weapons of mass destruction and th! e means of delivering them."
-- Sen. Carl Levin (D, MI), Sept. 19, 2002

"We know that he has stored secret supplies of biological and chemical weapons throughout his country."
-- Al Gore, Sept. 23, 2002

"Iraq's search for weapons of mass destruction has proven impossible to deter and we should assume that it will continue for as long as Saddam is in power."
-- Al Gore, Sept. 23, 2002

"We have known for many years that Saddam Hussein is seeking and developing weapons of mass destruction."
-- Sen. Ted Kennedy (D, MA), Sept. 27, 2002

"The last UN weapons inspectors left Iraq in October of 1998. We are confident that Saddam Hussein retains some stockpiles of chemical and biological weapons, and that he has since embarked on a crash course to build up his chemical and biological warfare capabilities. Intelligence reports indicate that he is seeking nuclear weapons..."
-- Sen. Robert Byrd (D, WV), Oct. 3, 2002

"I will be voting to give the President of the United States the authority to use force -- if necessary -- to disarm Saddam Hussein because I believe that a deadly arsenal of weapons of mass destruction in his hands is a real and grave threat to our security."
-- Sen. John F. Kerry (D, MA), Oct. 9, 2002

"There is unmistakable evidence that Saddam Hussein is working aggressively to develop nuclear weapons and will likely have nuclear weapons within the next five years ... We also should remember we have always underestimated the progress Saddam has made in development of weapons of mass destruction."
-- Sen. Jay Rockefeller (D, WV), Oct 10, 2002

"He has systematically violated, over the course of the past 11 years, every significant UN resolution that has demanded that he disarm and destroy his chemical and biological weapons, and any nuclear capacity. This he has refused to do"
-- Rep. Henry Waxman (D, CA), Oct. 10, 2002

"In the four years since the inspectors left, intelligence reports show that Saddam Hussein has worked to rebuild his chemical and biological weapons stock, his missile delivery capability, and his nuclear program. He has also given aid, comfort, and sanctuary to terrorists, including al Qaeda members ... It is clear, however, that if left unchecked, Saddam Hussein will continue to increase his capacity to wage biological and chemical warfare, and will keep trying to develop nuclear weapons."
-- Sen. Hillary Clinton (D, NY), Oct 10, 2002

"We are in possession of what I think to be compelling evidence that Saddam Hussein has, and has had for a number of years, a developing capacity for the production and storage of weapons of mass destruction."
-- Sen. Bob Graham (D, FL), Dec. 8, 2002

"Without question, we need to disarm Saddam Hussein. He is a brutal, murderous dictator, leading an oppressive regime ... He presents a particularly grievous threat because he is so consistently prone to miscalculation ... And now he is miscalculating America's response to his continued deceit and his consistent grasp for weapons of mass destruction ... So the threat of Saddam Hussein with weapons of mass destruction is real..."
-- Sen. John F. Kerry (D, MA), Jan. 23. 2003

Poor rmck1! He should have listened to his sock puppet friends!

Norman writes: And you wonder why you'll fall short of taking the House and Senate on Tuesday--the American people have you sussed.

Except that that's false. The Republicans have a majority in the Senate not because a majority of the American people support them, but because large numbers of thinly populated states support them. For example, in 2004, Democratic Senate candidates received 44 million votes to win 44 seats, while Republican Senate candidates received only 40 million votes to win 55 seats.

Norman:

Nice cherry picked quotes.

Bob Graham voted against the IRW.

My Senators and Congressman did likewise.

The intelligence became obviously suspect towards the end of '02 and into the beginning of '03, when Blix and ElBaradei didn't confirm a single one of the bogus pieces of intelligence that went into forming those quotes from a year earlier.

Nice try, but, uhh, no Cuban. Here, have this blunt instead :)

Bob

Oh, poor humorless Daryl:

The real target of your ire is rmck1. Do you concur with him?

Score one with Perot. It's true that he spoiled the election for Bush; I can't argue with you there.

Bwah hah hah hah hah!

IRW = IWR -- or, as it is alternatively known: AUMF

Here's a website with the details about Perot's effect in 1992.

Norman:

I concur with Daryl. I was thinking in terms of the popular vote, not the Electoral College.

You can win a plurality of the popular vote and still sweep the EC, considering that Perot would've never won any delegates in the winner-take-all EC allocation formats which are standard in most states.

Bob

Here, have this blunt instead :)

Based on what you've written here this evening, I'd quit mixing Angel Dust with your marijuana and get some badly needed assistance with your evident drug problem.

Norman:

Nothing spells "I've eviscerated Norman's argument" more clearly than when you degenerate into pure ad-hominem fantasia :)

Bob

Bob Graham voted against the IRW.

Yes, well Kerry and Clinton voted for it and Graham is retired.

How is it that Graham wasn't recruited to run as vice-President in 2004?

Oh yes, meticulous diaries and Edwards--another yes vote for the IRW as you call it--was a better pick.

Just ask President Kerry how that turned out.

Bwah hah hah hah hah hah!

rmck1,
To even further illustrate your point from above, if things are looking good for Smirk, why is he cmapaigning for people and in states that voted overwhelmingly for him and Repubs in '04? Marliyn Musgrave? Darth Vader in Wyoming? WTF??? That's how you can tell the Repubs are f--ked

Norman:

Kerry and Edwards both apologized for that vote -- and Edwards while he was still in the primaries.

Don't change the subject, Norman. Graham was chairman of the Joint House/Senate Intelligence Committee at the time.

He had more information than most.

Bob

Nothing spells "I've eviscerated Norman's argument" more clearly than when you degenerate into pure ad-hominem fantasia :)

Ah, yes. Your habit of declaring victory and patting yourself on the back, again. Well, no, you have made no points, you offered up the line about the illegal drugs yourself, and there is really nothing more to say, except get some help and quit fighting with your liberal friends--they're only trying to help you to stop being a crazed, addled, racist little shit.

Ghost of Tom Joad:

Egg Fucken Zakley :)

Hey Norman, where's Rove sendin' the POTUS on Monday?

How about ... IDAHO !

ROTFL !

Bob

Norman:

The line which, of course ... you had to quote out of context :)

I was passin' de Dutchy on de lef han side to YOU, mon :)

Not that, you know, you need anything more than your own addled brain chemistry to spontaneously hallucinate or anything :)

Bob

Norman:

"racist little shit"

You know ... ordinarily dem's be fightin' words.

But coming from you they only make me giggle :)

Bob

Graham was chairman of the Joint House/Senate Intelligence Committee at the time.

He had more information than most.

Well, but not as informed as you, if I recall your boastings of late.

Pity the poor rmck1--delusional and carrying a pocket full of victories that only he has imagined. And as liberals go, racist and profane and capable of little more than bullshit and confusion in the stead of a decent argument.

Norman:

I haven't explored your views on this issue -- but given the persona you exhibit here, it's rather likely that I harbor much less racial animus than you do.

You were the one, after all, encouraging Michael Steele to play the race card, not me.

I merely want all Maryland Democrats to know that this isn't any "moderate, independent-minded" candidate -- but rather a product of Ken Mehlman's attempts to recruit black candidates into the GOP.

His record is clear. He's a GOP ideologue. You wanna vote for that, fine.

I'm only standing for truth in labelling.

Bob

Norman:

"Profane"? Said the man who started cussing me out with zero provocation.

You notice I haven't returned fire, correct?

You're really beginning to scrape the bottom of the barrel, provocation-wise, aren't you :)

But I'll help you out: Nothing can provoke me tonight, Norman.

The fundamentals here are too good :)

Bob

No, I have condemned racism as being the province of the Southern Strategy, and it has not won us anything of substance in the Republican Party. Were it up to me, this would be a party that talks about economics and strength and leaves the racism to the likes of you.

And you demonstrated perfectly how liberals are the real racists. Don't deny what you wrote--it was a fairly scathingly paternalistic attack on anyone who supports Steele.

Charming, yes it was. Charming. Still can't live it down, can you?

Norman:

Tell it to the RNC ops who ran the "Harold ... call me" ad in Ford's district.

Your party still has a lot to live down in this department -- if I do commend you for at least talking the talk.

But I never told anyone not to vote for Michael Steele.

I only said that a vote for Michael Steele is a vote for a GOP shill, is all.

Which is, you know, objectively true.

And I predict there will be very few Maryland Democrats in the final analysis who will fall for it.

Bob

I only said that a vote for Michael Steele is a vote for a GOP shill, is all.

Bwah hah hah hah hah hah!

How can anyone read this and not conclude that you are a racist little shit:

So a few local black pols are endorsing Steele because he's the right skin color.
That's supposed to actually *matter* to a thinking person?

Tell us how a black person who votes for Michael Steele is not a "thinking person" will you?

And what really saddens me is that no one else picked up on it and made you explain your remarks. What, no courage out there? Or is this racist drivel just par for the course around here with you liberals?

vote democrat, boys and girls, early and often. as the following demonstrates, you're in EXCELLENT company:

------------------------------------------------------------------------
FROM WND'S JERUSALEM BUREAU
Mideast terror leaders
to U.S.: Vote Democrat
Withdrawal from Iraq would embolden
jihadists to destroy Israel, America
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Posted: November 2, 2006
9:27 a.m. Eastern

By Aaron Klein
© 2006 WorldNetDaily.com

"This is why American Muslims will support the Democrats, because there is an atmosphere in America that encourages those who want to withdraw from Iraq. It is time that the American people support those who want to take them out of this Iraqi mud," said Jaara, speaking to WND from exile in Ireland, where he was sent as part of an internationally brokered deal that ended the church siege.

Jaara was the chief in Bethlehem of the Brigades, the declared "military wing" of Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas' Fatah party.

Together with the Islamic Jihad terror group, the Brigades has taken responsibility for every suicide bombing inside Israel the past two years, including an attack in Tel Aviv in April that killed American teenager Daniel Wultz and nine Israelis.

Muhammad Saadi, a senior leader of Islamic Jihad in the northern West Bank town of Jenin, said the Democrats' talk of withdrawal from Iraq makes him feel "proud."

"As Arabs and Muslims we feel proud of this talk," he told WND. "Very proud from the great successes of the Iraqi resistance. This success that brought the big superpower of the world to discuss a possible withdrawal."

Abu Abdullah, a leader of Hamas' military wing in the Gaza Strip, said the policy of withdrawal "proves the strategy of the resistance is the right strategy against the occupation."

"We warned the Americans that this will be their end in Iraq," said Abu Abdullah, considered one of the most important operational members of Hamas' Izzedine al-Qassam Martyrs Brigades, Hamas' declared "resistance" department. "They did not succeed in stealing Iraq's oil, at least not at a level that covers their huge expenses. They did not bring stability. Their agents in the [Iraqi] regime seem to have no chance to survive if the Americans withdraw."

Abu Ayman, an Islamic Jihad leader in Jenin, said he is "emboldened" by those in America who compare the war in Iraq to Vietnam.

"[The mujahedeen fighters] brought the Americans to speak for the first time seriously and sincerely that Iraq is becoming a new Vietnam and that they should fix a schedule for their withdrawal from Iraq," boasted Abu Ayman.

The terror leaders spoke as the debate regarding the future of America's war in Iraq has perhaps become the central theme of midterm elections, with most Democrats urging a timetable for withdrawal and Republicans mostly advocating staying the course in Iraq.

President Bush has even said he would send more troops if Gen. George Casey, the top U.S. commander in Baghdad, said they are needed to stabilize the region

The debate became especially poignant following remarks by Sen. John Kerry, D-Mass., the 2004 presidential candidate who voted in support of the war in Iraq. Earlier this week he intimated American troops are uneducated, and it is the uneducated who "get stuck in Iraq."

Kerry, under intense pressure from fellow Democrats, now says his remarks were a "botched joke."

Terror leaders reject Nancy Pelosi's comments on Iraqi insurgency

Many Democratic politicians and some from the Republican Party have stated a withdrawal from Iraq would end the insurgency there.

In a recent interview with CBS's "60 Minutes," House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi, stated, "The jihadists (are) in Iraq. But that doesn't mean we stay there. They'll stay there as long as we're there."

Pelosi would become House speaker if the Democrats win the majority of seats in next week's elections.

WND read Pelosi's remarks to the terror leaders, who unanimously rejected her contention an American withdrawal would end the insurgency.

Islamic Jihad's Saadi, laughing, stated, "There is no chance that the resistance will stop."

He said an American withdrawal from Iraq would "prove the resistance is the most important tool and that this tool works. The victory of the Iraqi revolution will mark an important step in the history of the region and in the attitude regarding the United States."

Jihad Jaara said an American withdrawal would "mark the beginning of the collapse of this tyrant empire (America)."

"Therefore, a victory in Iraq would be a greater defeat for America than in Vietnam."

Jaara said vacating Iraq would also "reinforce Palestinian resistance organizations, especially from the moral point of view. But we also learn from these (insurgency) movements militarily. We look and learn from them."

Hamas' Abu Abdullah argued a withdrawal from Iraq would "convince those among the Palestinians who still have doubts in the efficiency of the resistance."

"The victory of the resistance in Iraq would prove once more that when the will and the faith are applied victory is not only a slogan. We saw that in Lebanon (during Israel's confrontation against Hezbollah there in July and August); we saw it in Gaza (after Israel withdrew from the territory last summer) and we will see it everywhere there is occupation," Abdullah said.

neill:

Link it, don't spam it on the blog.

WorldNetDaily is a grotesque ideological sewer.

Bob

And that concludes my contribution for the evening, kids. As I leave for the night, this will no doubt allow rmck1 to declare victory over me for a second time--well, woo hoo! You did so much hard work and came up with so many interesting pieces of analysis. As that fellow Borat would say, NOT!

I wonder if any of you liberals will tolerate or ignore the demonstrably racist post by rmck1--I wonder if any of you will stand up to this bully and kick him in his balls for being so blatantly racist.

Your uncle Norman highly doubts any of you have the courage to stand up to rmck1 and call him on his racist post. It's so much easier for you to make a joke or kvetsch about George W Bush.

And how sad is it that I have to be the one to point this out to you idiots?

Link it, don't spam it on the blog.

Whoops, one more observation:

Yes, neill. Do what rmck1 says. It's his blog, after all, and you are here to do what he tells you to do.

And for God's sake, don't point out that he's wrong--he'll savagely attack you and snarl like a puppydog at you.

Grr!

Norman:

The African-American local elected officials endorsed Steele for pretty obviously racial reasons. I forget the exact quote, but they said they were doing it because they felt "left out" of the Democratic appratus.

They didn't say they were endorsing Steele because they agreed with his positions or thought he'd be the best candidate.

That's identity politics, Norman. That's playing the race card. And yes -- it amounts to a terribly unthinking way to choose a US Senator.

I am criticizing the individuals who made the endorsement on what looks like nothing more than racial grounds. I'm sorry, but "vote for him, because he's black like us" just doesn't cut it in my book.

And if you'd like to call that racist rather than what it is -- anti-racist -- that's your perogative, Norman.

But no fair-minded person would draw that conclusion.

Bob

Can't this be a Coulter-free zone?

Rich:

In what sense is it a Coulteresque zone? I don't quite follow ...

Bob

I thought you were for same-sex marriage?

i am, dick-breath. consentual whatever is fine by me.

Haggard kicked out of new life church ... when she sobers up, maybe coulter can do an article on the differential effects of kerry's joke and haggard's combined methamphetamine/manwhore problem on Tuesday's vote.

Nads:

How about the initial partial confession:

"I bought the meth and had a massage ... but I didn't have gay sex."

Jeez, can somebody say "But I didn't inhale" :)

But yep -- he had the meth-enhanced man-sex. He's outta there.

Bob

He looked a little tweaked in Jesus Camp, that's for damn sure.

Nads:

No, wait ... it was even better.

It was "I bought the meth, but only had it with me for a few hours. But then threw it away, because I knew it was WRONG."

That's "But I didn't inhale" on STEROIDS :)

Bob

Nads:

I've never seen the guy on TV -- but Disputo sez he'd make your gaydar go on high alert ...

Probably did wind up with a daily meth habit -- that shit's highly addictive.

Bob

Q: you know what's even creepier than a 'pastor' who likes meth and hookers?

A: a 64 year old guy who calls himself "Uncle Norman" and refer to himself in the third person.

if this guy offers you candy, kick him in the dentures and run like hell

cleek:

*chuckling*

Indeed ...

Bob

Norman,
How is that tin foil hat?

Liberals, I think your hearts are going to be broken again. I don't subsribe to Rassmussen, but it looks like things are breaking Republican in the latest Rassmussen polls (as reported by conservative Captain's Quarters -- anyone have access to Rassmussen?):

Tennessee: Bob Corker pulling away from Harold Ford

Missouri: Dead heat between Jim Talent and Claire McCaskill; both have had slight leads in the last few polls [I'm in Missouri and I think Talent wins, but it could go either way]

Virginia: James Webb has dropped his five-point lead over George Allen, and it's now a dead heat

Maryland: Michael Steele has pulled into a tie with Benjamin Cardin, despite the heavy Democratic Party registration advantage [It sounds like Steele is going to win]

Montana: Conrad Burns has come back from double-digit deficits to tie Jon Tester

I thought American Hawk was betting everyone that democrats would not take the house. I'm hearing something different now.

New meme: My broker is American Hawk, and when American Hawk speaks....nobody listens.

I have always thought Krauthammer was smart and honest. I now have read his column and Kevin's post, and Krauthammer wins. Krauthammer said "What to say about such a [25 House seat change] victory? Substantial, yes. Historic, no."

Kevin basically says, "oh yeah, it will be historic" because it is greater than the last two 6 year elections -- such a narrow partisan view of "historic."

One pauses to think, what difference does it make if a 25 seat win is "historic?" It is what it is. Krauthammer accurately says it will be substantial. Kevin just wants to try to make it into a talking point that it is of historic significance, when an honest person would have to say it is not. Let's no cheapen the word historic to develop a partisan talking point.

brian:

Nobody quotes Rasmussen. It's a goddamned robo-poll.

Do you *honestly* know anybody who wouldn't *instantly hang up* on a recorded voice if it wasn't some mega-celebrity?

I surely don't.

Bob

To play this word game a little further, if dems plus 25 in 06 would be historic, what would Kevin call repubs plus 54 in 94 to break 40 year of democrat rule? Kevin loses the debate.

brian:

Which part of "historical context" don't you understand?

Bob

brian:

Did you *even bother to read* Kevin's post?

Bob

Bob,

You have to open your eyes and be honest. Rassmussen had one of the best, if not the best record, in 04.

I actualy got a robo poll call one day (don't know if it was Rassmussen), and it was very easy and pleasant to respond. It was well done.

By the way, I got a call from some guy in Wisconsin today telling me to vote for McCaskell. It was a riot. I told him I was concerned about dems on the war on terror and asked him what the dems would do to help the war on terror. He said they would review Haliburton contracts. What a joke. Al Qaeda wants to kill us, and this guy thinks I should vote democrat so vendor contracts will be reviewed. He was pathetic and so stupid he stayed on the line for about ten minutes with me. When I told him that I was worried about terrorists killing him and me, his answer wwass that I should not worry about it because where we lived it probably would not be a problem.

Bob,

I read it. Kevin did not say "historical context" as you seem to think. He said "historic victory."

Again, this is a semantical game, but Kevin loses the debate and, in debating Krauthammer, he will be in over his head on most issues.

The lobbyists representing the Gay Porn and Anal Sex Lube industries will not allow a Democratic victory. Such a victory would be a disaster for the Gay Porn industry. These lobbyists have ponied up a few hundred million dollars for attack-ads that will air starting Monday. We'll turn this thing around, you'll see. Then we can get back to the business of sticking our noses in your business again.

McCaskell? Missouri, right?

The guy on the phone line was right, brian ... your sorry lilly white ass is safe from the darkies.

No one, except possibly some neonazis, abortion clinic bombers, or other christian terrorists, would bother with missori.

brian:

I don't know anything about Rasmussen's record in '04 ...

What I'll say is this. Tennessee has been lost for awhile. That Missouri is still a tossup is a good sign; it's been a tossup for weeks. Maryland is not going to go for Steele. It was nice that you cited nothing on New Jersey or Rhode Island; I'll assume those races are where they are.

Virginia troubles me if you're detecting a trend. I'm praying to gods you're not. Burns has been closing the gap for over a week, so that's to be expected.

None of these races changed into a GOP lead. That's the most significant point.

Bob

I just read the Washington Post and they also are pathetic. Their own poll shows a swing from Democrat plus 14 to Democrat plus 6 and they virtually ignore it in writing about how well democrats are doing to do. The dems may still do well, but the Washington Post bias is obvious.

brian:

No, it's not a semantical (sic) game.

What part of "redistricting" don't you understand?

Bob

Oh, and for the record, Norman is not a member of the Secret Republican Gay Sex Ring. He keeps trying to join, but we gotta have SOME standards. I mean, he's just plain icky, the way he talks about his Pet Goat.

brian:

*Your* bias is obvious.

Plus 14 to plus 6 *what*?

Bob

No, Don't say Tennesee is lost just yet! Ford is putting up a hell of a fight! I am in California and I wish I could vote for him. We are all rooting for Ford and all the other Democrats. There has got to be a change finally! We cannot be disappointed so badly again!

Bob,

Thanks for one respectful response. I am biased in favor of conservatives, but I also try to be honest. I commend you for honestly acknowledging you do not know anything about how well rassmussen did in 04, but since that is the case, how could you dismiss the rassmussen polls? The fact is that rassmussen did very well in 04.

The WaPost poll of likely voters over the past two weeks has changed from 55/41 to 51/45 on the question of whether you intend to vote for dem or repub in congressional election. This is exactly the type of movement that Repubs were praying for. I think it probably means the swing will be in the 10 to 20 range, notwithstanding the Post's attempt to discount/ignore its own poll.

cocksucking evangelical hypocrites tend to make that vaunted base stay home. ... rassmussen may not have seen that one cumming.

that's one october surprise that caught you right in the eye, wasn't it?

Nads,

I don't understand why you and other liberals treat evangelicals as idiots or otherwise in such a demeaning manner Why would an evangelical voter in Va or Penn or Mo stay home because of some perverted minister in Colorado? Or because of Foley?

because you're sheep who do as you're told. because the evangelical community has betrayed the values taught by jesus in favor of whoring itself out to the repubs.

you expect other voters to be as ignorant as you ... it's why you think black voters will support the few black repub candidates in the few places where they exist.

Charlie Cook Sez:

THE HOUSE: We Win

THE SENATE

Santorum in PA is toast.

It's hard to imagine that Republican Dewine in OH survives.

Burns in MT and Chafee in RI are even with their Dem opponents, and appear to have some momentum.

Allen in VA and Talent in MO are even with their Dem opponents as well, but appear to have no momentum, which is seriously bad for them.

In TN, he'd be surprised to see Republican Corker lose to Dem Harold Ford.

rassmussen may not have seen that one cumming.

You know you are going to hell for that don't you? And I'll meet you there for laughing so hard.

guys, the liberal breeze is blowin hard. we're IN. and lookee who here's with us? lovin it...

------------------------------------------------------------------------
FROM WND'S JERUSALEM BUREAU
Mideast terror leaders
to U.S.: Vote Democrat
Withdrawal from Iraq would embolden
jihadists to destroy Israel, America
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Posted: November 2, 2006
9:27 a.m. Eastern

By Aaron Klein
© 2006 WorldNetDaily.com

"This is why American Muslims will support the Democrats, because there is an atmosphere in America that encourages those who want to withdraw from Iraq. It is time that the American people support those who want to take them out of this Iraqi mud," said Jaara, speaking to WND from exile in Ireland, where he was sent as part of an internationally brokered deal that ended the church siege.

Jaara was the chief in Bethlehem of the Brigades, the declared "military wing" of Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas' Fatah party.

Together with the Islamic Jihad terror group, the Brigades has taken responsibility for every suicide bombing inside Israel the past two years, including an attack in Tel Aviv in April that killed American teenager Daniel Wultz and nine Israelis.

Muhammad Saadi, a senior leader of Islamic Jihad in the northern West Bank town of Jenin, said the Democrats' talk of withdrawal from Iraq makes him feel "proud."

"As Arabs and Muslims we feel proud of this talk," he told WND. "Very proud from the great successes of the Iraqi resistance. This success that brought the big superpower of the world to discuss a possible withdrawal."

Abu Abdullah, a leader of Hamas' military wing in the Gaza Strip, said the policy of withdrawal "proves the strategy of the resistance is the right strategy against the occupation."

"We warned the Americans that this will be their end in Iraq," said Abu Abdullah, considered one of the most important operational members of Hamas' Izzedine al-Qassam Martyrs Brigades, Hamas' declared "resistance" department. "They did not succeed in stealing Iraq's oil, at least not at a level that covers their huge expenses. They did not bring stability. Their agents in the [Iraqi] regime seem to have no chance to survive if the Americans withdraw."

Abu Ayman, an Islamic Jihad leader in Jenin, said he is "emboldened" by those in America who compare the war in Iraq to Vietnam.

"[The mujahedeen fighters] brought the Americans to speak for the first time seriously and sincerely that Iraq is becoming a new Vietnam and that they should fix a schedule for their withdrawal from Iraq," boasted Abu Ayman.

The terror leaders spoke as the debate regarding the future of America's war in Iraq has perhaps become the central theme of midterm elections, with most Democrats urging a timetable for withdrawal and Republicans mostly advocating staying the course in Iraq.

President Bush has even said he would send more troops if Gen. George Casey, the top U.S. commander in Baghdad, said they are needed to stabilize the region

The debate became especially poignant following remarks by Sen. John Kerry, D-Mass., the 2004 presidential candidate who voted in support of the war in Iraq. Earlier this week he intimated American troops are uneducated, and it is the uneducated who "get stuck in Iraq."

Kerry, under intense pressure from fellow Democrats, now says his remarks were a "botched joke."

Terror leaders reject Nancy Pelosi's comments on Iraqi insurgency

Many Democratic politicians and some from the Republican Party have stated a withdrawal from Iraq would end the insurgency there.

In a recent interview with CBS's "60 Minutes," House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi, stated, "The jihadists (are) in Iraq. But that doesn't mean we stay there. They'll stay there as long as we're there."

Pelosi would become House speaker if the Democrats win the majority of seats in next week's elections.

WND read Pelosi's remarks to the terror leaders, who unanimously rejected her contention an American withdrawal would end the insurgency.

Islamic Jihad's Saadi, laughing, stated, "There is no chance that the resistance will stop."

He said an American withdrawal from Iraq would "prove the resistance is the most important tool and that this tool works. The victory of the Iraqi revolution will mark an important step in the history of the region and in the attitude regarding the United States."

Jihad Jaara said an American withdrawal would "mark the beginning of the collapse of this tyrant empire (America)."

"Therefore, a victory in Iraq would be a greater defeat for America than in Vietnam."

Jaara said vacating Iraq would also "reinforce Palestinian resistance organizations, especially from the moral point of view. But we also learn from these (insurgency) movements militarily. We look and learn from them."

Hamas' Abu Abdullah argued a withdrawal from Iraq would "convince those among the Palestinians who still have doubts in the efficiency of the resistance."

"The victory of the resistance in Iraq would prove once more that when the will and the faith are applied victory is not only a slogan. We saw that in Lebanon (during Israel's confrontation against Hezbollah there in July and August); we saw it in Gaza (after Israel withdrew from the territory last summer) and we will see it everywhere there is occupation," Abdullah said.

I don't understand why you and other liberals treat evangelicals as idiots or otherwise in such a demeaning manner

Because Evangelicals (as opposed to True Christians) - put their faith in a flawed book, and flawed leaders, instead of God.

Because the driving force behind their action is not a love for God, but a hatred for liberals, and anyone not like them.

And because the Evangelical "movement" is not a real movement. It's a fake construct of a cabal of well-heeled television preachers and seminary school board members, who were dissatisfied with their effect on National Policy, and learned to use television, money, modern advertising techniques, modern music, and sleazy half-truth rhetoric to push the hot-buttons of hatred in disaffected conservatives to manipulate them into joining a fake "cause". They lied and fooled their followers into believing that they are "under siege" - (building on the previous generation of McCarthyites), they lied and cherry-picked scripture that supported their political positions (and ignored the rest), and they built mega-churches; the Wal-Marts of theology. With these tools, they created a mass-groupthink phenomenon that has swept the nation; but it is very much a top-down "movement"; initiated and generated by arrogant, power-hungry, and immoral leaders, who are interested only in building a voting base to wield like a club to subdue politicians. But it is a clumsy weapon, wielded with such poor skill, that the slightly more clever Republicans easily used it against them.

And the latest one over on the DNC site by the resident troll over there is that the Democrats that will pick up those seats are not really Democrats, they are DINO's, they are closer to moderate publicans

And this just in: Global Cit's DU troll (see first post in thread) is in fact none other than David Brooks of the NY Times.

I don't understand why you and other liberals treat evangelicals as idiots or otherwise in such a demeaning manner

1. "War on Christmas"
2. Jim Bakker
3. Oral Roberts
4. Ted Haggard
5. Hypocricy

Holy Cow batman. Earlier this evening I flipped past Fox News' "Obsession: The Threat of Radical Islam", discovering that there are terrorists trying to kill us.

I'm voting Republican. Only they know how to protect America. They're doing a heck-of-a-job.

Fox News. They report. I comply.

If Cook now has Chafee tied, things really are rolling the repubs way. What may be "historic" on Wednesday is how wrong the polls and pundits were.

At least the repubs don't have Tom Daschel to kick around anymore.

Boys, as the unhinged Olberman says, good night and good luck.

Have you been doing any pre-election work, brian? I have. In my part of the state (the left side, of course) the trend is decidedly blue and spilling over into Kansas, rolling west. But I'm getting a Bolivar/Springfield/Joplin vibe from you.

Global, in the past few days Bush speeches seem to be all over all TV stations. They're getting an immense amount of free advertising. And did you see Obsession on Fox? Incredible propaganda, much more powerful than anything the swiftboaters ever did. There was no October surprise, but I'm not sure if there isn't a November one unfolding. And where are the Democrats? Busy counting their chickens?

We are busy knocking on doors and phone banking and getting out the vote. Who really watches Faux? The network is in 6th place and the ratings for Faux News are sagging. Only the fever-swampers pay them any mind. I've been on the ground the last week. It is unlike anything I have ever seen before.

Well I'm glad to hear that. I don't usually watch TV but I've been trying to get a sense of how the election is playing there and I didn't much like what I saw. We also have the Saddam thing coming up -- probably more free air time for Bush and Co.

The BBC just reported that the judges are still deliberating, and the verdict was due over an hour ago.

Kevin's optimism is Charlie Brown's trust that Lucy will hold the football. Here for the Exile analysis.

A sample:
This alone should tell you where Middle America stands. Americans are pissed off about Iraq not because they were lied to, and not because America invaded and slaughtered tens or hundreds of thousands of people, or even because thousands of US soldiers have been killed and maimed there. No, what Americans can't stand is the bummer story that keeps seeping out of there. That's inexcusable.

OH, NO...Republican shills "making up facts"...and being reported unchallenged in our media...HORRORS!!!! Who would have thought? The most obvious and apalling thing that those who closely watch things like this election should take away is the complete lack of researching and preparation of our MSM...course they're all about the NEWSERTAINMENT and "LOOK AT ME" but still it should enrage us far more than it appears to.

egbert: Already counting your chickens before they hatched,

"President Bush warned Democrats not to celebrate too early. This is from the guy who put up the 'Mission Accomplished' sign 3.5-years ago." ---Jay Leno

I just reviewed the 2004 poll reporting at electoral-vote.com, and what was amazing in retrospect was that Kerry was leading in projected electoral votes going into the final few days before the election. On November 1, he was ahead by 298 to 231. But in the subsequent few days, Ohio, Florida, and Iowa switched to Bush. What this means is that almost all undecideds went for Bush. That actually makes sense to me. If you still haven't figured out who you are going to vote for before election day, then you are completely clueless, and therefore a natural Bush constituent.

That's my prediction for 2006, too. Most of the undecideds are going to vote Republican in the last minute, which will swing Virginia, Missouri, Montana into the Republican column. I'm not so sure about Rhode Island and Maryland, because in both cases, the Republican candidate has a certain amount of backing from progressive voters.

norman rogers: Had the first Gulf War been "successfully prosecuted" to the extent that the threat of Saddam Hussein was eliminated, do you really think we'd be at war right now?

"And the question in my mind is how many additional American casualties is Saddam worth? And the answer is not very damned many." - Dick Cheney August-1992

http://seattlepi.nwsource.com/national/192908_cheney29.html

"...but in the last 20 years there's only been a single year with a big swing (1994). Aside from that..."

Isn't that a little like saying, "Aside from THAT Mrs. Lincoln, how did you like the play?"

I still say your gains are going to be anemic, and Rove will be chortling next Wednesday. And I say that despite admitting we deserve to get our ass kicked. And no, it won't be because of Diebold.

brian: Rassmussen had one of the best, if not the best record, in 04.

61-percent of American adults believe that Republican leaders have been ‘protecting Mark Foley for several years. - Rasmussen Poll 10/5/06

Just like a little child that gets caught in a lie, conservatives cannot be gracious in defeat or admit that their agenda only appeals to a small, marginalized group of ideologues.

I simply find [responding to trolls] entertaining regardless :)

By all means scroll to taste.

Bob

You're entertained so everyone else can fuck off?

Bob, your vacuous exchanges with Norman, et al., suck all the oxygen out of the conversation. The first 75 or so posts here consist entirely of worthless bickering and taunting. It may entertain you but this isn't your personal message board. (You do realize that, right?) I agree with you politically but you're making the PA comment threads worse, not better. Get a job, get a dog, do something instead of squatting here 24/7.

Global Citizen,

When you come back on, yes,I know, you needed some rest for the upcoming Governor's Cup in St Louis today, but I need your help.

Problem is that I have already sent in the ballot with all Democratic selections. Felt pretty damn secure, until last night.

FAUX says that there "terra-ists" trying to take my outhouse and, this morning, I awakened to the news of the FAUX hanging special on Tuesday evening. Why didn't you tell me that our glorius Roi had personnally captured Saddam? Yep, there are even videos of George yelling "Come out of there, varmint, I arrest you in my name of the King." Pulling him out of the hole was high drama.

So, do you know anything about recalling a ballot? How could I have been soooooo wrong?

brian: Here's some context for you.

A new Washington Post-ABC News poll shows some narrowing in the
Democratic advantage in House races. The survey gives the Democrats a
six-percentage-point lead nationally among likely voters asked which
party they prefer for Congress. It was 14 points two weeks ago, but
this remains a larger advantage than they have had in recent midterm
elections.

The party in power almost always loses ground in the sixth year of a
two-term presidency. Republicans had hoped that the partisan
gerrymandering of most House districts would protect their majority,
but the number of competitive seats has continued to grow throughout
the year, increasing the likelihood of a Democratic takeover.

Rep. Rahm Emamuel (D-Ill.), chairman of the Democratic Congressional
Campaign Committee, stopped short of predicting that Democrats will
take the House, but said: "I'm playing defense in one or two districts
and offense in 46. I like those odds. I'd rather be us than them."

=-=-=-=-=-

Bob

vetiver:

You're not "everyone else."

So yes, you're entirely welcome to go fuck off :)

(What other sort of response would you expect to a personal attack?)

At least until such time as a consensus emerges. I'm hardly the only gleeful troll thwacker in these parts.

Bob

vetiver,

Some of your message should be directed to rdw on the David Frum thread below for homesteading on weekends to turn whatever thread into a running stream of Krudlow's (misspelling intended) supply side swill and Paul Belian's, the Islamos are coming down the trail, hide the women and children, garbage.

vertiver:

For as long as I've been posting on message fora, there has always been a claque of people who try to manage distraction by loudly proclaiming "don't feed the trolls."

And I agree. I don't think responding to the off-topic anti-semitic spammers makes any sense at all. And generally, we don't. But they're a rarity.

Call it "the tragedy of the commons" if you like, but enough people don't follow that exhortation to make it entirely vain, every single time it comes up. Seems people attracted to politics like to debate and argue, especially with their ideological opponents.

Who woulda thunk it, huh.

Bob

Bob,

I think the old rules like undecideds always breaking for the opposition are no longer true - Newt thought the same thing in Clinton's sixth year and had to pack it in because of it. I think your gains are going to be anemic because at the last minute the undecideds will hold their noses and pull the R lever.

Guess we'll see in a few days.

minion:

There are a lot of "old rules" that we're going to see broken in this election. Frankly, although I always knew the polls would tighten, I'm worried sick right now.

For the record, I predicted 4 in the Senate and 20 in the House. I was starting to feel the wave of optimism in the last week, but now I guess all Democrats need to hunker down and get their asses to their campaign headquarters for the last two days.

Yes, vertiver, myself included.

Bob

On Cardin vs. Steele, one major problem Maryland Democrats have had for years, despite their major edge in registered voters, is that the party establishment has never given the Washington suburbs (specifically Prince George's and Montgomery counties) the light of day. As a result, their statewide candidates invariably have little background, or interest, to the Washington-area (O'Malley, the gubernatorial candidate, is different inasmuch as he grew up in Rockville long before he moved to Baltimore, where he eventually became mayor). Cardin is typical, which is why Steele was trying to capitalize on his lack of knowledge of Washington-area affairs.

You linked to Ann Coulter, and I tried it. I do read the other side. What's with her Veronica Lake look in her picture?

Well, the difference is that Veronica Lake played a witch, while Ann Coulter -- who's nearly a foot taller than Veronica was -- actually is one. (Apologies to all good witches out there.)

Vincent:

Interesting insight. Steele didn't help his cause, though, when he showed up after that debate for a press conference at the wrong station site.

Do you have a read on how that race will play out? I'm starting to get worried ...

Bob

Let's see, Nancy Pelosi will be Speaker of the House, head of the Legislative Branch of government, next in line to be president after Cheney, nothing Bush wants will pass without her support--and this is all no big deal and some sort of "victory" for Republicans. I love it!

At least the tired old line of "Democrats never win anything" will be dead and buried. Not like it was ever true anyway.

Oh, and we'll finally have some real oversight--enjoy your last two years of complete impotency George. I love it!

Veronica Lake comments? Be very careful how you talk about my gal!!!

As Ann Coulter ages, she is starting to look more like a peroxided version of Margaret Hamilton's Wicked Witch of the West.

And apologies to Alan, no Allen, Ladd.

Alright ... (with apologies to vetiver for opening my yap one too many times once again -- or not. You decide :):

After reading a bunch of news stories and polls, here's how I'm beginning to feel:

I agree to an extent with Daryl McCollough. I think the crest is coming off this wave, and that our gains won't be as substantial as the landslide prediced by Cook, Sabato and Rothenberg. We'll still gain the House and come close to the Senate. I'm substantially worried about VA, MO and MT, less worried but still not 100% confident about RI and MD.

However -- I think it's important to keep in mind that in the last month, we Democrats have succumbed to irrational exhuberance. We've been letting the wave stories get to us, and not taking into account that all this election analyzing is coming from MSM punditry who have a vested interest in driving the most exciting coverage that it can. While I don't think these guys are deliberately distorting anything -- I *do* believe that anyone who has pays any serious attention to the news does tend to take negative stories perhaps more seriously than the sort of voter who tunes in at the last minute and will decide this election. Many of these folks *will* be the functionally clueless who will then turn around and vote for the status quo. The economy may be resonating more strongly than what we've seen in last week's polls. And ... *sigh* ... the Saddam verdict -- minus a horrendous wave of new bloodshed -- is a good storyline for Bush.

This being said, I think we need to keep it in context. Winning the House and closing the gap in the Senate will still be a tremendous victory we can all celebrate. We'll have control of the legislative calendar and control of the committees. We'll be able to get some real oversight for the first time in six years. We all can, and should, crow over that.

It's simply important to manage expectations. I don't want anybody who reads a 5-seat majority in the House as some kind of miserable failure, because it didn't go like Charlie Cook said it would.

Bob

I think your gains are going to be anemic because at the last minute the undecideds will hold their noses and pull the R lever.
Guess we'll see in a few days.
Posted by: minion of rove on November 5, 2006 at 9:41 AM | PERMALINK

Yeah. Hold their noses, cover their eyes, plug their ears, and drink two bottles of tequila, and afterwards, ponder suicide.

minion of rove: I think your gains are going to be anemic because at the last minute the undecideds will hold their noses and pull the R lever.

Only if they have a compelling reason to pull a lever. Many will take a pass if they don't like the options. This is a midterm after all.

Those reasons appear to boil down to little more than "scared of a Democratic victory" or "pissed at continuing Republican control".

The scare tactics have worn thin, but reasons to be pissed continue. In this cycle I predict "pissed" trumps "scared".

Has407: I have been on the ground as recently as yesterday. Pissed is way ahead of scared. Especially in my area, where we have had five funerals this month.

Now, I tire of the trolls. I'm going to visit Aravosis. They deal with them much more effectively over there. They certainly do not engage them.

Global Citizen -- Glad to hear it. And I just noticed over at Aravosis a report that there is a significant difference in the motivation to vote between D's and R's (52% vs. 39%). Let's hope that holds through election day.

rmck1 if you are worried now watch the hbo program called hacking democracy. watching this program scared the shit out of me.

mhr -
No, we occasionally want Republicans in there once in a while, to refresh the memory of the American people on what fascist authoritarian thugs and con-men they are.

Global Citizen, the AZ Republic, the monopoly editorial newpaper in Phoenix, put the headline about the soldier from Flagstaff who may have committed suicide because of the interrogation techniques she was being ordered to perform on the top of their B1 'state' section this morning. Also in the print edition. I heard it first from you. Thanks again.

here

has407:

What's the URL of that site? I tried punching it into my browser and it never connected, though it said it was attempting.

mr. maki mmmkay:

I'm not a *conniesseur* of worry. I have no desire to fret myself into a frenzy, which is why I've been trying to read as little as possible about the e-voting controversy. We'll know soon enough after the election. I'm glad that from what I have read, the Democrats at least seem prepared with armies of pro-bono lawyers fanning out through troubled districts. I would predict that the outcome will be close enough to be litigated.

Bob

....put the headline about the soldier from Flagstaff who may have committed suicide because of the interrogation techniques she was being ordered to perform . . .
Posted by: Hostile on November 5, 2006 at 1:07 PM | PERMALINK

Suicide? Or a fragging? Like Tilman.

has407 & Global Citizen:

I just googled aravosis and it took me to AmericaBlog. Never checked it out before.

I read the recent election thread comments and I must say I was not impressed with their troll management, if they have any at all ...

Bob

Bob -- See here (second entry from the top); the original article from TIME describing the poll results is here.

has407:

Thanks. As I said, I did look at the comments. Wasn't hugely impressed; seemed like a partisan bickerfest without the benefit of the thoughtful comments that manage to get inserted here even in the middle of the worst of those ...

Their software doesn't work well with my text-only browser. The comment lines are all center-justified.

Bob

Bob -- No comment or endorsement of their troll patrol or technology; I just check the site once in a while.

has407

The main reason I think many/most undecideds will break Repub is anyone who has not been bludgeoned into the Dem column by the Stalin Organ barrage of the MSM over the last six months must have some reservations about Dem leadership.

minion, everyone but Bush Cultists like you -- the 33% dead enders -- has "reservations" about Republican leadership. That is, the American people have concluded, rightly, that the Republican leadership is a toxic blend of mendacity, incompetence and corruption. Blaming the "MSM" because the American people are aware of the GOP's lousy record is beyond weak -- it's a pleasing sign of desperation.

minion:

Anyone who thinks that the MSM is a "Stalin Organ" is already ideologically predisposed. The issue here is whether these ideologically predisposed but hugely disaffected Reppublicans and Republican-leaners can be motivated to vote at all. Some of them doubtless will. And many of them won't. There's also been a huge drumbeat from the right-o-verse that the GOP needs to lose at least the House so it can become pure again.

The real issue is with the Independents and undecideds who until last week were strongly leaning Dem. The real question there is how many of them are going to overcome their fear of change and the unknown and pull the D lever (or touch the D screen). There are still more of them leaning Dem in polling.

Bob

Bob & Gregory

You're probably right - I already conceeded on another thread that I voted for Heath Schuler yesterday, my first Dem vote since 1988. I'm still hoping for a whumping instead of an autopsy.

Gregory:

minion early-voted for Heath Schuler. He's a disaffeced Republican, not a hardcore ideological partisan. His handle is meant as a gentle mockery of conspiracy-minded leftists, not literally.

He's less an ideologist than ex-liberal, that's for sure. I'd put him in the category with republicrat -- a person with a genuinely conflicted ideological predisposition.

Bob

Oh yeah, the steady drumbeat for three days of the "Kerry is a Very Big Story" over at CNN was very much in line with the Stalin Machine.

And did anyone write in Borat down in Nicaragua, today? You all know that we Democrats love to vote and vote often, whenever and wherever and under whatever name. Our votes are rarely counted correctly, or at all, but we just need the practice in case there is the remote chance a Republic ever returns to this land.

minion of rove -- The MSM "barrage" aside, it is less a question of whether they have "reservations", and more a question of whether those reservations are compelling enough to get them to vote.

Without a compelling reason, most who are undecided at this point are more likely to stay home, rather than "hold their noses and pull the R lever".

Bob: You're not "everyone else."

Bob, what makes you especially hard to take--at times--is a penchant for eye-popping hypocrisy.

Only recently you were arrogating for yourself the right to speak for "nearly everyone on this blog."

Similarly, I've seen you more than once admonish people not to engage various wing-nuts or right-wing commenters. The next day you'll go on a tear of troll-indulgence yourself.

If lefties in general were as grossly inconsistent as yourself it would be a grievous mark against us.

obscure:

Just as I've rarely seen a post from you, Matt, that wasn't a personal disparagement of some kind, even if somehow related to the issue under discussion.

Matt, what liberals do is put things in context. Just as there's a difference between consensual gay sex between adults and Mark Foley's behavior -- there's a difference between responding to actual human-being trolls who like to engage us and telling spammers to cut it out.

There's a diference between Norman Rogers (who I find precious) and Watcher.

And if you can't *tell* the difference -- then of course it would look like nothing but hypocrisy to you.

Fortunately, most people on this blog apparently can.

Bob

He's less an ideologist than ex-liberal, that's for sure. I'd put him in the category with republicrat -- a person with a genuinely conflicted ideological predisposition.

Frankly, Bob, I'm not interested in the ideological predispositions of those who bring nothing to the discussion but GOP talking points and other dishonesty, and I submit that minion has an ample track record there. Minion's implication that public disaffection with the GOP's record of incompetence, mendacity and corruption is the result of some kind of "MSM" conspiracy, as you noted, ranks him as an ideologue.

Now, maybe he/she/it can be reached. But if he/she/it wants to participate in a genuine debate, he/she/it can check the bullshit talking points at the door. They're still bullshit whether typed by minion or "republicrat" or "ex-liberal."

has407:

And that's the $64k question this election. How much of the recent Pelosi, Dean and Rangel, oh my!, the (relatively) good economic news, the Kerry pseudo-smackdown, the Hussein verdict -- is going to amount to enough reason in these final days to get these folks to make the affirmative choice to go vote Republican.

I'd say that's unknown at this point -- but I'm willing to admit it's at probably a higher number than it was last week.

Will it be decisive? Not for holding the House, of that I'm %99.998 certain.

Bob

Gregory:

Each to his or her own taste. I've found points of agreement with minion on immigration and House investigations.

I really do like to save ad-homs for the trolls, and try to debate the issue. I'd rather avoid tying it with whatever picture I might have of the individual I'm debating with if at all possible.

Which is why, Gregory, I often tend to skim your posts when the first line is yet another attack on the person's honesty. While I agree with your politics in nearly all cases, I do find that kind of personalized approach to debate not to my tastes.

Bob

I've found points of agreement with minion on immigration and House investigations.

That's swell, Bob, but I see no reason to give someone a free pass for a relentless tide of dishonesty just because they occasionally summon an honest argument.

I'm sorry if you don't like it when I point out that a commenter makes a dishonest argument, or point out that a commenter has a history of such, and I know it's impossible to defend the Bush Administration honestly, but the bottom line is no one forces them to adopt a dishonest argument.

Gregory:

Well, this leads actually to an interesting philosophical discussion. I honestly do believe that most people who disagree with us politically have a different worldview than we do -- not that these disagreements necessarily spring from some sort of character flaw. And I think it's extremely important for Democrats to understand this, because it's the only possible way we'll have of expanding our base enough to win national elections.

You know, the redistricting-endangered GA Dem incumbents are running pretty hard to the right, saying they agree with Bush on this or that. Heath Schuler won't say whether he'll vote for Pelosi as leader. Bob Casey (and Harry Reid) is (are) famously pro-life. They're in our tent. Do we attack them for being "dishonest," too -- or do we understand them as having different bases for views than we do? I'd submit to you that if we do the latter, it'd be a helluva lot easier to find common ground with them on the votes that really count.

Ex-liberal annoys the pants off me because so many of his premises are unexamined, so I tend to be more sympathetic of your view of him. Minion, OTOH, seems to be much more open to at least acknowledging the legitimacy of the other side of an issue. I think that's important.

And it's part of why I consider myself a liberal, Gregory. I believe that context is extremely important -- and I don't believe that anybody or any group has cornered the market on righteousness.

Isn't that quality, after all, what we despise most about Bush?

Bob

Bob, I wish I had more time to discuss this topic, because it is interesting and I don't think we're that far apart, but there's a difference between a legitimate difference of viewpoint and an honest argument defending them. Honestly, whhat part of minion's "the MSM has been attacking the GOP" argument smacks to you of "more open to at least acknowledging the legitimacy of the other side of an issue"?

I've gotta go, but I hopewe can explore this topic later. I'll check back. Peace out.

Gregory:

Well no, I thought minion was referring to a particular subset of voters -- disaffected Republicans -- and indeed, a great many of those (especially the ones who don't vote regularly) have a conspiratorial view of MSM so-called "liberal bias." I mean, that's not saying anything particularly controversial.

The bigger issue, Gregory, involves the fact / value distinction. If somebody comes on with false or made-up figures or misquotes somebody or who says something concrete that's blatantly untrue -- by all means, call them on their dishonesty. Facts are facts.

But politics are about *values*, not facts. A liberal whose primary value is community and a conservative whose primary value is liberty can look at the same set of data and come to opposite conclusions. Dishonesty has nothing whatsoever to do with it.

We all have biases. We all filter information to conform to them. I surely prefer reading polling analysis in the NYT or the WaPo than I do in the NYPost or the WashTimes. And I'm sure conservatives feel the opposite way. Because we tend to credit information that confirms our worldview, we look askance at information that doesn't. So there's a huge temptation to want to render that counter-information suspect in some concretely objective way. That's why it's so tempting to call it "dishonest" instead of saying that it doesn't jibe with our values.

Sure there are political manipulators out there who are willing to deliberately lie and distort. Sure, there are trolls on this site whose only purpose it seems is to yank our chains. I'm not saying that dishonesty *isn't* a factor in politics. What I *am* saying, though, is that within a standard of reasonability and rhetorical fair ball, most political disagreements have nothing to do with honesty, but rather values choices. The problem with the knee-jerk attacking of political foes as "dishonest" (without first offering confirmable proof) is that it implies that there's a Capital-T political Truth out there, and that this person knows it as well as we do -- but they're intentionally choosing to be deceitful about it.

The corrolary problem to that is calling somebody a liar is the functional equivalent of spitting in their face. The bond of civility is broken, so this person feels no obligation to be fair in response. Calling a someone a liar is a serious charge, Gregory. If you feel you must -- you had better be prepared to prove it beyond a reasonable interlocutor's doubt rather than using it as vitriolic shorthand for political disagreement.

Bob

Kevin,

Also, in every case you listed, the opponent party of the president won the presidency if there was a dramatic change in the 6th year congress. Otherwise the sitting presidents party won the presidency.

Will it be decisive? Not for holding the House, of that I'm %99.998 certain

You may be in for a very long night. The GOP is going to do much better in the Senate than expected and will have a very strong turnout across the board.

We may keep 53 or 54 Senate seats and lose less than a dozen house seats. If Rove and Mehlman get the base out, and that seems likely, the networks will be in mourning on Wednesday. Nancy and Harry will certainly lose their positions and Charlie Rangel among others will resign.

It's not impossible Chaffee will keep his seat and that 53 or 54 will be 54 or 55.

Nothing like Republicans and Democrats alike using sample sizes of five or less to "prove" their point. Pretty darned silly.

rdw:

I don't think you can be so smug about turnout; you're basing this on extrapolations from '04, and I don't think that's quite fair to do so, given the radically different climate.

First of all, Armageddon was around the corner in '04 after the Mass gay marriage ruling and a bunch of mayors defiantly (and flamboyantly) legalized it. You don't have quite the same impetus from the NJSC decision, in an environment heavy with GOP and evangelical sex scandals.

Secondly, the war's a disaster. The Army Times tomorrow will call for Rummy's head. Conservative talking heads have turned against the war, and that's a terrible signal to give the base before the election.

Third, terrorism is nowhere the kind of cutting issue it was two years ago. There's a distance from 9/11 that's taken that sting away; people see that law enforcement is breaking up plots and so everytime the GOP brings up terrorism, this leads straight to Iraq, because of course Iraq is the "central front in the GWoT." Terrorsm = Iraq doesn't do much to help make Bush's case to the non-diehard. You don't have to have followed the reports on NIE or Woodward's new book to see that the Iraq war has created a new problem, not tried to solve an old one.

Fourth, the economy isn't cutting nearly as well as it should. Why? Because in the GOP 'burbs where it should, these sorts of voters tend to be pissed off at the GOP for the pork-barrel budget and the Iraq war. Educated voters reside here, and the more you know about Bush and his way of doing business, the more you feel congress is out of touch. Constituent service is the only thing that can save the GOP's bacon in many of these races. For people in the less affluent 'burbs and the cities, younger folks, folks who took out an ARM to buy a house -- the economic is actually looking precarious despite the employment stats and surging DOW. Healthcare, college education, a sagging housing market, corporate job insecurity have given the larger chunk of the electorate a sense of malaise. In Michigan and Ohio, tell somebody on a random street that the economy's good and be prepared for an angry scowl. Many parts of red country are hurtin'. Dems doing well in red country are preaching prairie populism.

Fifth, the best turnout machine in the world doesn't matter if you don't have the wind at your back, if you don't have compelling reasons for your base to vote. The three major segments of the GOP have reasons to be furious -- the social conservatives for the sex scandals and lack of movement on their agenda (and don't think evangelicals weren't pissed when Bush threw Harriet Meiers under the bus), the fiscal conservatives for the pork barrel budget and the libertarians for the rape of the Constitution. With precious little in the way of legislative accomplishment (and two court appointments who haven't yet demonstrated their worth to the base with decisions), a disasterous war in Iraq, no real leverage against Iran and NK and a glass half empty / glass half full economy, there's precious little in the way of good news the GOP can stay on message about.

So what are they running on? Constituent service and outrageously negative attacks. Attempts to turn Nancy Pelosi (who nobody really knows) into Margaret Hamilton from the Wizard of Oz. Panic-button social issue fearmongering. Is this going to work?

I don't think it's going to work as well as it did in '04. I think the well has run dry on many of these things.

But we're going to see soon enough ...

Cardin, Whitehouse and Menendez hold. Webb, Tester and McCaskill pull out squeakers.

20+ in the House minimum.

Bob

Bob, what makes you especially hard to take--at times--is a penchant for eye-popping hypocrisy.

Bwah hah hah hah hah hah hah hah hah!

I could not have said it better myself! Bravo to you, Mr. Obscure--you have nailed rmck1 to the wall!

Bravo!

Cardin, Whitehouse and Menendez hold. Webb, Tester and McCaskill pull out squeakers.

20+ in the House minimum.

Wrong as usual.

The only Republican who will lose his Senate seat is Santorum, and that is lamentable. In the Spring, Mr. Cheney will likely retire, and Mr. Santorum will be tapped to be the next Vice President of the United States of America. This will elevate him to a position that will allow him to win the Presidency outright from John Kerry in 2008--Kerry is the modern Adlai Stevenson.

In the House, you won't get more than five seats and you won't survive a vicious thrashing from the forced retirements that will follow from such an embarrassing showing. You'll purge yourselves of the liberal wing of the Party and you will rally behind one Steny Hoyer, who will lead the Dumbocrat Party to mediocrity, as is your usual position.

No, bent over the settee by George W Bush is the usual position, I believe.

Bwah hah hah hah hah hah!

Everyone get the vote out goddammit. I will not rest or predict until victory is assured.

Though it is heartening to see the weasly Repukes saying a huge Dem victory is no big deal.

I'm ever hopeful, but I wouldn't start printing the GOP, STFU bumpersitckers just yet.

I don't think it's going to work as well as it did in '04. I think the well has run dry on many of these things

Actually it hasn't and all indications are 2006 turnout will be very high. You've just given your view on a range of issues which is the say the liberal view. The might be operative in your world but it isn't in mine. I don't get my news from ABCNews. I don't read the NYTs or any of the liberal rags and according to recent numbers readership is down 10% from 2004 levels. THe networks are down as well.

They could not drive public opinion in 2000, 2002 or 2004 and you think with an even smaller market they're framing the agenda now?

Your party has been absolute buffoons. We may not be happy about Iraq but you haven't said what you would do and we all know the terrorists are trying like hell to get Democrats elected. That's reason enough to keep you out.

The economy is terrific and you didn't say anything there but then you did not have to. You are the party of tax increases. We all know it.

I don't think gay marriage is anywhere near the issue you think it is but if so the NJ supreme court has made it easy for the GOP. The fact is Judges will ALWAYS be a top issue for conservatives and John Roberts and Sam Alito are great turnout drivers. We need more of them. The evangelicals were not pissed at all about Harriet Meirs. Not when she was followed by Samuel Alito. Harriet was a blank page. Sam's pages were all filled out in detail, very attractive detail. Both Sam and John have been outstanding so far.

What you miss in every point is why any of these people would even think of voting blue. They're great Americans and they will vote. They want the type of judges GWB appoints who will ban gay marriage and abortion. They want the tax cuts. They want a guy who ignores the UN and makes it clear we don't do stupid as in Kyoto. They want a guy investing in Star Wars and a guy telling the Japanese to rearm.

You are still the party of John Kerry. His timing was perfect wasn't it? They're the party of GWB.

You are not getting either house. There will be soe cannibalism within your party on Wednesday.

the opponent party of the president won the presidency if there was a dramatic change in the 6th year congress. Otherwise the sitting presidents party won the presidency.

That's obviously silly. There wasn't a dramatic change on 1998 the 6th year under Clinton yet his party STILL lost.

2008 is going to be rather unique because there won't be an incumbant VP in it and because Hillary will be the Democratic nomineee with the highest negatives of any nominee in history and having the spector of Monica's boytoy as '1st man'.

To know what's really going on you need some linguistic expertise. Check out what the folks over at http://www.elgin.free-online.co.uk have been doing. Could be the wisest move you make this year.

rdw,
The Republican party has nothing to offer America except hate and failure.
The Democraic patry offers hope and competence.

Frankly voting Republican these days is an act of immorality.

Everything out of your keyboard is a god damn twisted spin from a crooked mind. Republicans are destroying America, one day at a time. Stop helping them. Stop enabling them. Reject satan and embrace the light.

Republicans love Americans before birth and after death, but while we are actually on this good green earth republicans hate and exploit us to the hilt.

You are in alliance of the most selfish craven immoral business interestes who have no qualms killing people to make a buck and the most irrational idolatrous perverted Christianist who have twisted the words of Christ so much that they actually embrace the destruction of the world and the comming of armageddon. Sick evil people. Immoral people. Twisted people.

And you only hold your power through lies and the cultivation of ignorance. Morning noon and night the propaganda organs of the coservative republican machine message and pervert the truth for presentation and dissemination to the American people conditioning them how to think how to feel how to act. You are the new totalitarians, tyrrants amd bullies. There is no lie too brazen, no slander too unjust for you to use in the destruction of your ennemies. You worship at the alter of power; mammon and a false god united in unholy matromony.

A mountain of lies to uphold an evil project. Truly the anti christ lives in the republican soul. No country in the history of humanity has been as perverted from the course of truth and justice as the United States of America has been perverted by republican conservatism. An evil power worshipping ideology of greed and hate. Republicans are the anti chistians. They spit on the spirit of Christ every day.

And low, it shall come to pass that the people will see that republican conservatives speak with a forked toungue and that all their works are wicked and cruel and the people shall rise up and smite the evildoers, smite the republicans, smite the conservatives, for their sins against man, and gods creation and their cirmes against the god of love and reason and their embrace of idolitry and mammon.

You worship a false idol, an idol of power and money and you kill and lie and cheat and embrace every deadly sin for your so called God. May the true God have mercy on your immortal soul for your many sins. You will face him on judgement day, repent while you still have the time to do so.

Nemesis:

But...but...George Clooney!

nemeis,

I didn't post 11:34.

I need some clarification on your essay. 4.4% unemployment is a bad thing?

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