Senate 6 (wishful thinking maybe); House 29

Congress +22
Senate +3

Senate 4
House 25

Assuming that Osama isnt coming through for his pal Dubya this election.

32+ House
6 Senate

Senate +4 (effectively 6, if Lieberman doesn't slime us).

House +20

Unchanged.

Bob

I'm going to take the Mulligan. I had +24 House and +5 in the Senate, but as I've continued to track the race in my Election Projections Survey I think that needs some adjustment.

Right now, the Survey's pointing to 229-206 in the House (+26) and 51-49 (+6) in the Senate, but the Senate numbers are soft and I think they'll come down again in the next two days. The House numbers keep going up, though, and I think they've got perhaps one more step left in them.

That means I'm going with +27 House and +5 Senate.

All hail our glorious leader. We have prevaled over the mighty satan Saddam Hussein, who has been sentenced to hang and burn in the fires of hell.

All hearts, minds--and most importantly, votes--must be dedicated to our brave and fearless leader W and his GOP army in their holy war to cleanse the world of the evil scourge of terrorism, gay marriage, and secular humanistic rational debate.

All talk of GOP failure must cease and desist. The GOP will prevail, winning ALL election battles on Tuesday, just as our illustrious leader W has conguered the evil dictator Saddam.

On this day, to commemorate our victory, we proclaim: the alphabet taught in all schools, to be recited each and every day, will henceforth takes the following form:

W A B C D ... V X Y Z.

All children of the victorious American nation will recite this after the morning prayer to our saviour Jesus Christ, before the pledge to our virtuous flag (soon to be protected with a flag burning amendment).

All hail our glorious leader W. All hail the victorious GOP victory on Tuesday.

Incidentally, my Dem numbers include any Independents, including Lieberman.

Kevin:

How about another nice music, popular culture or even (heaven forfend) sports thread to distract us from all this damned pre-game tension?

The Yo-Yo Ma thread was wonderful last weekend.

My nerves are getting shot.

Bob

Ah, Kevin.

It's looking worse for your "girls" all the time.

If I have to be honest, in mid Oct I was a little concerned. But now, in the last week, with the President and Vice President showing off their vigorousness on the campaign trail, and Kerry's mouth, I'm thinking you guys are going to get shellacked.

egbert:

"Shellacked?" Not a chance.

Undecideds aren't really moved by all that rah-rah-the-base stuff.

They might break in a slightly higher percentage for Bush than we were thinking two weeks ago, is all.

Our numbers are still better than they've been in many a midterm.

Bob

after viewing the hbo special (hacking democracy) it will probably be a bad turn out for the democrats in any state with diebold machines. i can honestly say i fear the govt now.

Tester, Webb, Casey, Brown, Whitehouse, McCaskill and Lamont all win. Hopefully that means the Dems win back control of the Senate.

I will predict a 28 seat pickup in the House

I'll stick with my original prediction of +23 in the House and +4 in the Senate. As near as I can tell, that's now at the low end of the consensus range.

If we get 23 in the House and 4 in the Senate (plus some governorships) I'll be a happy camper Tuesday night, happier than I have been since election night 2004. As far as I'm concerned, anything beyond that is gravy.

I hope Conyers, Waxman and Dingell bury them in subpoenas.

I was at 27 and 4. I'll stay at those numbers but would rather have 23 and 6.

25 House seats
5 Senate, plus Lamont

House: +22
Senate: no change (counting Lieberman as an Independent)

For better or worse, the "ins" get last bats in every election.
For 30 years, Americans have been told by both parties that if they sat on their asses and let the pols take care of things, it'd all be OK. That thought is hard to break.

Things aren't bad enough yet. Don't worry, that won't take long.

Senate: plus 2
House: plus 13
Governorships should be at least plus 5, however.

Elizabeth Dole on NBC. WTF? Do the GOPers take a course in bitchiness before they become leaders?

29 and 5 with the vice president switching parties and voting for Reid. I revise my Ohio forecast from rain to scattered showers.

Feeling pessimistic today, so I'll say 22 House but only three in the Senate, which I'd much rather have (the House always seemed to be a better fit for the pitchforks-and-torches crowd). Would love to be proven wrong, though.

House: Dems = 230+
Senate: Dems = 50-51

I'll stick with my pickup of 4 in the Senate but bump my House net increase numbers to 21 from 18.

Nevermind, I'll stick with my original prediction. Never place bets after snorting meth off a gay hookers back.

Hey Bob, I've got dibs on +6 Senate, +29 house.
http://www.washingtonmonthly.com/archives/individual/2006_10/009886.php#986517

But now that I think about it, if the Dem wave is enough to get us to +6 in the Senate, it will probably be strong enough to get us more than 29 House seats. But I'm going to stick with +6 Senate +29 House becaues I think the prestige will be greater if my October 25th guess is correct than if a last minute revision is correct.

Iowa Electronic Markets

http://iemweb.biz.uiowa.edu/graphs/graph_CONGRESS06.cfm

the price of the Republicans lose House, Republicans lose Senate, line (blue) has just shot past the Red case (Republicans hold Senate and House) although it is still behind the black line (Republicans lose House, hold Senate).

The money is calling for a complete rout. From what one hears of Tennessee and Montana and Virginia and Rhode Island, this is most unlikely

*and yet*

this tool called the 2004 Kerry-Bush election almost perfectly throughout the campaign.

There has been disruption in online gambling markets (US Senate legislation preventing companies from taking bets of Americans) *but* tradesports is more sanguine:

http://www.tradesports.com/aav2/trading/tradingHTML.jsp?evID=35889&eventSelect=35889&updateList=true&showExpired=false

BQty Bid Offer AQty Last Vol Chge
Trade SENATE.GOP.2006
65 70.0 70.3 22 70.0 35.2k +1.0
Trade HOUSE.GOP.2006
5 20.1 20.5 8 20.4 93.4k +2.1

Is showing 70-70.3 for the GOP taking the Senate (bet pays off $100, you pay $70.30 for it, and $70 to bet against it)

and $20.1-20.5 for the GOP taking the House.

Which seems about right.

House - +35

Senate - +3

Cosmo has spoken.

My nerves are getting shot.

Definitely exciting. I was hoping to postpone my guess until tomorrow, but here goes:

Senate: Dems +2 (counting a Liberman win as -1 for Dems);

House: Dems +17.

I am betting that, as before, unknowns are more likely Republican. Republicans have become more and more averse to sharing their opinions with pollsters, whom they perceive as liberals and Democrats. If this assertion is false, then the Dems will do better than I have predicted. The doubts will be resolved by Wednesday.

The latest photo cirulating on the right is a photo of V. P. Cheney signing an enlargement of the famous "Jon Carry" photo of soldiers in Iraq.

Topic for another day: Tester, Casey, Ford Jr., and a bunch of the Democratic Congressional candidates expected to do well in currently Republican districts are considerably to the right of the Democratic center.

Matthew

If anybody is thinking about the Iraq war ... .

Here is the web page for the 2007 Joint Statistical Meetings (JSM), to be held in Salt Lake City, July 29-Aug 2. Generally, about 5,000 statisticians attend, making it the largest conference of statisticians each year.

In 2007 the JSM will present an invited session, tentatively titled "War and Death in Iraq" devoted to the recent JH/MIT epidemiologyical sample survey study reported in The Lancet. The chair will be a distinguished statistician; the speaker will be an author of the paper; the discussants will be statisticians who have done epidemiological work in the Balkans and in Iraq. There will probably be an announcement in the next couple of months, and the full schedule will be posted some time next spring. I omitted names because the session is provisional until formally announced, and because the principals don't really want their names scattered upon the web.

Matthew

Oct 25 +18 House
+ 5 Senate

Nov 5 +20 House
+ 4 Senate

I assume the Dems starting with 45 Senate seats although one of those is listed as independent.

MatthewRMarler:

I think I agree generally that the so-called Independents and undecideds may break more for the GOP than we were thinking in the past week. However, I don't believe at all that there's an ideological aversion to sharing opinions to pollsters by Republicans. I think both Republican and Democratic partisans both have a strong incentive to get their voices heard to pollsters.

I think the self-selection process in phone polls more involves the sort of people who have an gut-level distaste for responding to taking unsolicited phone calls (remember the groundswell of support for the federal Do Not Call list?) These folks are often extremely busy, harried younger people juggling job schedules with family. I think that number is very big -- and it also would impact GOTV efforts, especially among the young, who tend to change cellphones often, or have prepaid cells with no choice of number.

I think there's huge cohort out there of potential voters who haven't been reached in person or poll by either side ...

Bob

Here are my predictions:
+ 25 House
+ 8 Senate
Phil Angelides sweeps Arnold
RCP candidate wins Iowa governor
Cindy Sheehan - as write-in - makes Crawford City Council

---
In other news:
Bob Menendez, ethnic nationalist
Leftwing groups have indirect links to Mexican government
Gabrielle Giffords won't reveal which guest worker plan she supports

TLB:

You don't call yourself LoneWacko for nothing :)

Bob

I just wanted to say to all our American friends, on that side of this (seemingly larger than before) Atlantic divide that bridges our world and yours.

Election Days are the moment when all the cliches become true. When the rubber hits the road. It's like that old milk ad 'suddenly the penny drops, and things become quite clear'.

They are that crystal moment when all the sacrifices, all the losses, all the history, comes together. All the shades of grey, all the rhetoric, all the noble thoughts, all the dirty tricks, are resolved into 1 tick, for one man (or woman) on a small slip of paper.

People have died for this moment, for this right, in your country, and in mine. The suffragette Emily Davison, for one:

http://www.bl.uk/learning/histcitizen/21cc/struggle/suffragettes1/derby1/derby.html

It's a great day, and an American vote counts more in the world than the vote of anyone else, anywhere else, when it comes to the fate of this planet.

Use that power wisely, and well. And go with our prayers.

Yours Sincerely

John
London, UK

And in other news, Tom Brosz's toy rocket sabotaged by illegals breaking into his garage.

Global, The Rams need you for triage.

My prediction is a Republican across-the-board victory, followed immediately by the launching of the air campaign against Iran and Syria.

I'm sticking with what I said the other day:

House +25
Senate +5

John:

Thanks for your eloquent and moving comment.

And thanks for your good thoughts. We're going to need them.

Cheers,

Bob

Senate +3 (counting a Lieberman win as a pickup for the rethugs)

House +25

this is my first set of predictions (but as my last name is Mulligan, I'd say that's just fine).

house +48 minimum
senate + 6 (and I'd trade half of those to see lieberman lose in ct)

newsworthy:
pederson wins in AZ sen
Titus wins in NV gov
Hastert and Reynolds both lose (pure wish fulfillment)

5 in the house, 1 in the senate.

Does recent polling shows in places like Tennessee account for people who have already voted?

I voted six weeks ago.

Hawk:

Those are pickups for the Republicans, right? :)

Bob

Same: House-20
Senate-4

Yes, yes. But I can tell you this: After the Dems take the House watch for the puditocracy to start wallowing in the "dem's take power, now what are they going to do with it?" meme. The first one to bring it up should be consigned to doing the weather reports in Billings, Montana.

House: +27
Senate: +4

Since I did not participate in the first poll, may I take my mulligan on Tuesday morning?

I said +18 House and +4 Senate, and I'll stick with those numbers. A week ago I would have guessed higher, but most poll numbers are breaking in the wrong direction. Nearly every Dem candidate in a close race is facing wall-to-wall ads portraying them as gay terrorist-lovers, and that slime seems to be sinking in.

I still have a very bad feeling that we'll be losing an awful lot of very close races Tuesday night. Naturally, this will be portrayed in the media as a big Republican victory, due to previous overestimations by the media.

The one tight race that's moving in the right direction is VA. If we can win the house by at least 3-4 seats and send that scumbag George Allen home, I'll consider it a victory.

"I voted six weeks ago."

Think of your vote as a rapidly declining out of the money call option as the expiration date approaches.

How does it feel to be in the "ownership society"?

If there are any 'X' factors in this election, it is the fact that Democrats are far more likely to show up and vote; their passion for halting the Bush agenda is far more potent than the motivation of the Republican base to sustain the status quo. Also, many Democrats are now competitive in races that would have been unthinkable just a few months ago. IMHO there is the potential for a huge landslide. I'm not predicting it, but the possibility is definitely there.

26 and 5

Think of your vote as a rapidly declining out of the money call option as the expiration date approaches.

I thought of it more as a target of opportunity.

Revised prediction:

Senate +3
House +20

Republicans are coming home. I think the Washington Post poll was a bit of an outlier, but are they trying to compensate for some of GOP's structural advantage?

Diebold, bitches!

That and voter disenfranchisement will probably do us in. The thugs will be out in force at the polling places challenging every voter's credentials.

I refuse to believe in a Democratic victory unless I see it on Tuesday. I'm a pessimist that way.

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has issued a warning about a new virulent strain of Sexually Transmitted Disease. The disease is contracted through dangerous and high-risk behavior.

The disease is called Gonorrhea Lectim and pronounced "gonna re-elect him."

Many victims contracted it in 2004, after having been screwed for the past four years.

Cognitive characteristics of individuals infected include:
anti-social personality disorders, delusions of grandeur with messianic overtones, extreme cognitive dissonance, inability to incorporate new information, pronounced xenophobia and paranoia, inability to accept responsibility for own actions, cowardice masked by misplaced bravado, uncontrolled facial
smirking, ignorance of geography and history, tendencies towards evangelical theocracy, categorical all-or-nothing behavior.

Naturalists and epidemiologists are amazed at how this destructive disease originated only a few years ago from a bush found in Texas.

I like Cliff Schecter's prediction.

More Republican pedophilic criminals will be in jail after the election.

I don't need a mulligan on that one.

Globe:

Droll :)

Bob

I predict that the No. 3 Repub in the Senate, Man-on-Dog Santorum, will lose.

Sure, not exactly a bold prediction, but the result which will make me most happy. Oh, and Democrats will take over control of the House. I don't really care much about the margin, it'll be enough.

I like Cliff Schecter's prediction.

More Republican pedophilic criminals will be in jail after the election.

I don't need a mulligan on that one.

Posted by: gregor on November 5, 2006 at

No doubt. The big stink they made about Kerry's botched joke in contrast to the lies and crap that this administration has gotten away with is ridiculous. I hope that this is not forever a republican dynasty in this nation from now on. The other #@!* democrats need to get off their butts and vote to take back this country and stop allowing these massacres. Some citizens are going out and videotaping the voting sites to make sure that this is fair and no more shenanigans!! We must win this time.

The GOP uncannily keeps every seat where Diebold machines were used.

The next day "respected" people tell us that a result like that was not suspicious.

Are the republican losses this election going to be enough to satify the national electorate's mood for change? Right now, it looks like the republicans are going to overperform.

Is this going to be enough to relieve some pressure from the Republicans, or does it leave the electorate questioning what the hell it is going to take to get some change in this country? 58-70% of the country has regected the republican agenda, but it doesn't look like that mood is going to be reflected in terms of congressional power. How is that going to sit with people?

Way to go Kevin! Your predictions and your blog are completely average. Way to play hardball with the repugs.

If there are any 'X' factors in this election,

It's the 'X' factors in this election that make me think that prediction is a mug's game. This cycle strikes me as subject to so many potential waves and counterwaves and overall volatility that I have just about no idea what to think, other than the "safe" stuff -- such as that the Republicans will lose the House.

By 15 votes or by 40? God only knows.

If I had to put my instincts on the table, I'd say it would nearer 40. I think that this is an election where large numbers of people are too disgusted to vote Republican, even if they don't want to admit to their friends, family, and pollsters that they are going against the GOP.

I think in 2004, there were a number of people who voted Republican, but didn't want to admit it openly to anyone, least of all a pollster. The Republicans and Bush clearly won that embarrassment vote -- which explained the discrepancy between the exit polls and the votes. But this time, I think it's going to be voters who live and work in Republican circles who don't want to admit to anyone they are going to vote Democratic.

But I'd be lying if I said I had any feeling of real certainty that I'm right about this.

mr maki mmmkaayyy: "after viewing the hbo special (hacking democracy) it will probably be a bad turn out for the democrats in any state with diebold machines."

Yeah, me too. I predict that any race that is a toss-up, in which the gap between the Republican and the Democrat is 5% or less, will go Republican.

The pundits will spin all sorts of ad hoc explanations--voter turnout, rain, the Kerry effect, whatever--and no one will look at the Diebold effect.

But when the dust settles, I predict:
Senate, Dems pick up one seat.
House, Dems pick up some, but not enough to take a majority.

The Republicans will spin their retention of control as a huge victory and cut taxes to head off the coming recession.

+ 17D House (though I think there is a good chance they will go lower and fall short of the 15 they need, given the clear trend of late polls to Republicans)

+ 3D Senate (Ohio, Pa and I think RI- they lose all the other tossups but Md.)

You would really have to have a perverted sense of citizenship in a democracy to vote for GOP- the party of perversion, pedophilia, lies, and death, and destruction.

It's the Stupidity Stupid!

I`ll stick w/+24, +5 and the Cheney heart attack following shortly thereafter, probably from "overwork" breaking voting ties

Of course this is the Diebold "neutral" projection...

"There is nothing worse than a sharp image of a fuzzy concept." - Ansel Adams

"its not who votes, its hows counting the votes" stalin

"its not who votes, its who's counting the votes" joseph stalin

Global Citizen,

I may have misinterpreted your figures - Are you saying that the independent City of St Louis, which is not part of Saint Louis County will lose 17 seats, while Jackson County will pick 31 seats? Or that they merely will gain 17 to the 31 of their western neighbor?

No matter how many seats in Congress we pick up on Tuesday, Shrub and Dickie will declare that the public has voted that they are dissatisfied with the war and that they now have a "mandate" to launch new offensives. The only offensive that has been successful is their Operation Backward Together. al-Sadr loved it.

I am feeling extra optimistic today, so I am going to say Senate +6, *including* Lamont beating Lieberman, and House + high 30's; say 37.

I just got home from canvassing and I saw one (1) Beauprez sign (our R candidate for Governor). Many Ritter signs. We already knew Ritter would win this, but it tells me the R's are discouraged and likely not as many as usual will vote.

In the rest of Colorado, and for that matter nationally, I think this Haggard thing can only hurt the R's GOTV. How many Christian conservatives who vote only sometimes are going to not get around to it this year?

The average of the Weekly Standard panal is (rounded):
Senate +5
House +25

Senate Dems pick up 2. The GOP will have 53.

House Dems + 11. The GOP will have 221.

I'm don't understand this any better now than I did then. I'm sticking with Democratic pickups of 25 in the house, 6/5 (depending on how you count Lieberman) in the Senate.

Noticed the update saying that Lieberman would be counted as a Democrat. Will he have to be "re-educated" to be re-admitted to the Democratic Party?

In that 4.7 new Senate seats, Kevin, does the point 7 mean that Joe Lieberman is only seven tenths of a Democrat? Might be a little high.

My previous prediction was +17 and +3 i think with diebold.

Now I predict +20 and +4 with Diebold.

With Diebold, the Unitary Executive, the Corporate Media, and the Evil mind-control power of monied interests, this is really an irrelevant argument.

go look at TPM, see the effect the GOP robocalling fraud is having on voters.

Well, I put this up at Lucianne, so I was and remain committed:

30-40 House pickup by Dems
5 in the Senate (brings it to 50-50, or Lieberman jumps to the GOP)

No GOP pickups of Dem seats. Virtually no moderate Republicans left in the northeast.

Alan Hevesi wins, gets removed from office. NY Dems pick up enough seats to take control of the state senate, initiating a period of one party rule.

Yo - GOOPERS:

....................../´¯/)
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.................../..../
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........../'/.../..../......./¨¯
........('(...´...´.... ¯~/'...')
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33 house
5 senate
29 Dem Govs

rmck1: However, I don't believe at all that there's an ideological aversion to sharing opinions to pollsters by Republicans. I think both Republican and Democratic partisans both have a strong incentive to get their voices heard to pollsters.

As to your second sentence, there are some partisans in each party that are like that. As to your first sentence, there has been plenty of evidence published that the Republicans avoid the pollsters more than Democrats do. The effect is generally approximately equal to the margin of error of one poll, and is larger in the more predominantly republican district.

15 House
2 Sen

MatthewRMarler:

If they avoid pollsters -- how would they register their views on this?

If a twig breaks in the forest and nobody picks up the phone -- is it a Republican? :)

Bob

I'll go with a net 12-16 in the House for the Democrat Party and a net of 0 (zero) in the Senate.

YMMV.

MatthewLMarler:

I dunno -- I think there's also the cellphone effect, which is more pronounced among younger people and which might serve to exclude a comparative amount of Democrats, making that a wash ...

Bob

Is Drudge's Pew link about race-tightening just BS? I wonder how many Americans were turned off by the suspicious timing of the Saddam verdict, vs. the news itself? In any case, don't be complacent: round up everyone you can, and get them to vote the mega-rascals out.

PS: I too will predict: +18 House and +4 Senate. REM that GOTGOPV effort, and still plenty of gullible shrubophiles.

Global Citizen, my feelings exactly. To any Repugs reading this, "F*** You, you lying, crooked, slimy bunch of pissants."

Senate +3, House +13

Global Citizen,
Like the style. Lets hope common sense prevails and the Grand Old Pinheads get voted out!

I'll stick by my original prediction that the GOP holds both Houses, but barely. Although I admit that this is based on the hope on the GOP base coming out to stem the tide. Also, I’m hoping for Dems and independent voters’ compliancy who may assume that the election is in the bag and may not take the time to vote if it would be a hassle to do so.

The only silver linings that I can see are that Chaffee is gone. The presidential aspirations of Frist and Allen are destroyed and neither will become candidates (unlike Kerry who is too much of an egoist to realize that he has no chance in 08). The same thing would also apply to McCain. The GOP primary voter in 08 is not to nominate a member of the failed Congressional leadership.

I just wanted to say to all our American friends, on that side of this (seemingly larger than before) Atlantic divide that bridges our world and yours.

I remember when you used to post more often, John. Wish you'd do so again.

As for predictions: I've been away and am behind on the polling, but I can't help but think that the real issue is whether, having retaken the House, Dems will wake up and smell the fucking opposition party coffee. Sadly, I suspect they'll decide that demanding accountability from GOP crooks, liars and moral reprobates will seem too ill-mannered and uncollegial of them, and that all the things Americans are begging for when they vote for change--from withdrawal from Iraq to affordable health care--are too scaaaaary for them to actually show some leadership.

Also, I’m hoping for Dems and independent voters’ compliancy who may assume that the election is in the bag and may not take the time to vote if it would be a hassle to do so.
Posted by: Chicounsel

the word is "complacency" ... dipshit.

Senate: +2 Dem (Win PA, RI, OH, lose MI)
House: +17 Dem.

Damn robocalls.

I live in Maryland and I heard the most blatent racist, antiwhite radio ad yesterday courtesy of Michael Steele. I think he might defeat Cardin, depending on the black turnout. So I stick with my earlier prediction: Va. and Md. switch, with a 3-seat pickup in the Senate.

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Senate: +15
House: +209

Whoops. I meant:

Senate: +15
House: +229

I'm not such a political nerd I have time to examine all the close house races, but here is my very cursory, first (and last) glance at potential Democratic pickups. The only name listed on each is that of the Democratic challenger, and in my view any number (if not all) of the possible Democratic pickup races could easily go either way. I don't believe Ms. Pelosi can at all be certain she will be the next house majority leader (although it would only take slightly more than a quarter of the possibles going Democratic for a majority).

Probable Democratic pickups:

Arizona 8 Giffords
Colorado 7 Perimutter
Florida 13 Jennings
Indiana 2 Donnelly
Indiana 8 Ellsworth
Indiana 9 Hill
New York 24 Arcuri
Ohio 18 - Space
Pennsylvania 10 - Carney
Wisconsin 8 - Kagen

Possible Democratic pickups:

Arizona 1 Simon
California 11 McNerny
Connecticut 2 Courtney
Connecticut 4 Farrell
Connecticut 5 Johnson
Florida 16 Mahoney
Illinois 6 Duckworth
Iowa 1 Braley
Iowa 2 Loebsack
Minnesota 6 Wetterling
Nebraska 3 Kleeb
New Mexico 1 Madrid
New York 26 Jack Davis
North Carolina 8 Kissell
North Carolina 11 Shuler
Ohio 1 Cranley
Ohio 2 Wulsin
Pennsylvania 6 Murphy
Pennsylvania 7 Sestak
Pennslyvania 8 Murphy
Virginia 2 Kellam

It's not who votes or how they vote; it's who counts the votes. Notice the sudden claims of the election "tightening," of leads shrinking to the margins of error. That makes it less obvious when votes are shifted electronically.
There are reports already about large numbers of fake robo-calls
These guys have a list of what to watch for as returns come in..

So the dirty tricks have begun. Harrassing robocalls claiming to be Dem candidates are being made around the country, turning OFF possible Dem voters. Check out talkingpointsmemo.com for details.

My prediction, less than optimistic. 25 House, 3 Senate. Fraud factored into estimate.

Yeah, Britt Hume is bragging that the latest WaP0 and Pew polls are, as he says, "Way Down" from previous polls.

Glad to see the water logged return - Water skiing across the Atlantic at this time of year - Whew!

I'm getting a very bad feeling about this whole thing...

House: +8
Senate: +3

This makes me sad.

Senate 2
House 12

Or even fewer.

I'm not at all confident about this. Three things: Our wonderful Democratic leadership has done everything to undermine candidates who are truly for changing things; Republican gerrymandering and dirty tricks will work once again; and it doesn't matter what people say a week before an election when they want to seem brave since when it comes to pushing that button most people will shy away from change and opt for the imagined stability embodied in incumbency.

That said, I hope I'm so wrong.

My scientific analysis, which consists of me riffing off of this with no research but a love for number proportions, combined with a sense of change in the air, throw the bums out sentiment, leads me to 6 and 36. If I gave up the 6s, I'd go with 6 and 31.

Dems will win BIG.

Repub claims the polls are closing is just nonsense.

Election irregularities should be documented and reported by phone to 1-800-our-vote

GOTV!

Here are my updated house predictions. They don't seem to bode well for a Democratic victory.

Probable Democratic pickups:

Arizona 8 Giffords
Colorado 7 Perimutter
Florida 13 Jennings
Indiana 2 Donnelly
Indiana 8 Ellsworth
Indiana 9 Hill
New York 24 Arcuri
Ohio 18 - Space
Pennsylvania 10 - Carney
Wisconsin 8 - Kagen

Possible (but in some cases doubtful) Democratic pickups:

Arizona 1 Simon (this is a rural district, and I think a doubtful pickup)
California 11 McNerny (doubtful)
Connecticut 2 Courtney (doubtful - most of the liberal special interest groups endorsed the Republican incumbent)
Connecticut 4 Farrell (doubtful - Shays probably wins)
Connecticut 5 Johnson (doubtful - this is the most conservative part of Connecticut)
Florida 16 Mahoney (this was Foley's district; if the Dems win it will be because people are too stupid to write in the Repub's name)
Illinois 6 Duckworth (this was Hyde's district - it still tilts Republican and is probably a doubtful pickup)
Iowa 1 Braley (this is a Democratic leaning swing district - could go either way...one to watch)
Iowa 2 Loebsack (doubtful - it's a close race but I think Leach wins)
Minnesota 6 Wetterling (doubtful - this is a GOP-leaning district and the Independent is more likely to take Democratic votes)
Nebraska 3 Kleeb (doubtful - this is a safe Republican district)
New Mexico 1 Madrid (another one to watch - it includes Albuquerque and environs)
New York 26 Jack Davis (another potential swing district, but doesn't include Buffalo itself [my guess is it stays GOP])
North Carolina 8 Kissell (this is on the border with South Carolina, won't happen)
North Carolina 11 Shuler (Dems can win Asheville but they'd need and won't get the rural areas)
Ohio 1 Cranley (this is a GOP-leaning district in SW Ohio; what would Dems do for small manufacturing again?)
Ohio 2 Wulsin (Schmidt is nuts but sadly they'll prefer nuts to Wulsin)
Pennsylvania 6 Murphy (another potential swing district but probably too rural for a Democratic pickup)
Pennsylvania 7 Sestak (a previously solid Republican district that is liable to become less so in the future [but not quite yet])
Pennslyvania 8 Murphy (yet another potential swing district but not quite yet)
Virginia 2 Kellam (a GOP-leaning district, not a likely pickup)

Okay ...

I don't think it's going to be quite as bad as reader or Aris suggest. I think some of us are getting cold feet. It's nerve-wracking as hell, and frankly I just wish it would be over at this point.

However, a couple things to realize. The GOP doesn't have the resources to do its full-court GOTV in all the House seats it needs to. We're in much better shape with widening leads in our key House races than we are in the Senate. Remember, we're only defending *two* House seats (both in GA, both threatened due to redistricting).

We are going to do *fine* in the House. We will take it.

Right now, I'm most worried about Tester. The GOP *does* have a full-tilt GOTV operation there, and Tester needs at least a 3-point lead there to beat it. I am confident, though, about Menendez, Cardin, McCaskill and Whitehouse. Webb could be the big disappointment in the race, as far as I'm concerned. I really despise George Allen. Ford's gone, sadly enough. But so are Vomitorium and DeWhine :)

Bob

Your uncle Norman doesn't need a mulligan. I have been the only consistent voice of reason on this blog--write it down and quote that, liberals!

I'm getting a very bad feeling about this whole thing...

House: +8
Senate: +3

This makes me sad.

Bwah hah hah hah hah hah hah hah!

Yes, your uncle Norman tried to tell you Dumbocrats about a thing called the expectations game, but just a few weeks ago you were predicting fifty seats in the house and and a dozen in the Senate. The poster that I've quoted is typical of how far you've fallen!

A hint fron your uncle Norman--never give up, never surrender and never stop fighting. That's why the Republicans have beaten you every time!

And you wonder why I can't stop laughing at how pathetic all of you are!

We are going to do *fine* in the House. We will take it.

Unfortunately, there isn't a large enough supply of Vaseline to help you take it, but be my guest--live with your inadequate fantasies for another few days.

house:: +17, senate: +3 Numbers should be a hell of a lot better than that but fear and homophobia still reign.

Linus:

What about Lampson in TX 22? They have to type out Shelley Sekula-Gibbs as a write-in. Hell, *I* can spell it correctly, but this *is* Texas we're talking about :)

Where are the Kentucky and Indiana races? What about that flake in Idaho that one of his primary opponents wanted to throw out a two-story window -- name starts with an S. He's even too flakey for Idaho; the Dem's in the lead there according to the WaPo.

Why are you so down on the chances in Ohio, of all places. If a Democratic wave is going to break out anywhere, it's in that state. Strickland is killing Blackwell in the gov race. And what about the Sherwood and Weldon races in PA?

Sheesh, there are more chances than you have up there, looks like to me ...

Bob

Linus:

Alright, cross the guy in Idaho off; I see you have Giffords as a pickup. Lemme go and check with the WaPo and do some research and try to crossmatch your list more thoroughly ...

Bob

No mulligans here. I'm sticking with +21 house, +5 Senate, not counting Lieberman.
(Both are looking a seat or two optimistic to my anxious eyes tonight.)

Linus:

You can check this for the WaPo's take on the hottest 35.

Basically, they call 12 leaning for the Dems. This was just posted a few hours ago.

Bob

A REPTILLIAN SWEEP. VIRTUALLY NO DEMTILLIANS WINNING. OTHER THAN JOE IN CT.

you just cannot defeat the crooked electronic voting machines.

Remember what is responsible for the Dems getting such a big boost; Republican Mendacity.

The Robocalls are bad. But Josh over at TPM points out that they are ILLEGAL, and that there are mainstream media outlets who are tripping overthemselves trying to get information on these calls.

They've got another day - and if the word gets out, I predict the robocalls (which have Karl Rove's name written all over them - this is the kind of dirty trick that is right up his alley) - will backfire. Republicans are always happy to whip out the bazooka for the heavy firepower - and they ALWAYS forget about the blowback.

rmck1,

I dunno either. Which is why I called my forecast a "guess". But it's my best guess, and an eminently testable hypothesis, which is about to be tested.

I totally failed to anticipate the 1994 shift toward the GOP. I did not like Newt Gingrich, and I thought that the "contract with America" was an empty gimmick. Both were more effective than I thought they would be.

Here is a numerical exercise: say for the sake of argument that 10% of Republican voters avoid pollsters but only 3% of Democratic voters do so. (In the 2004 Ohio exit polls, the figures were approximately 5% and 0%, respectively; or else 10% and 5% respectively.) Now look at the Missouri race: if the true undecideds split 50-50, then Tenant is ahead if he is behind in the polls by a few percent. This is a "known unknown" -- we know there is an ascertainment bias, but we do not know exactly how much it is.

And as you say, the cell phone effect may go the other way.

And here are my senate predictions...

Probable Democratic pickups:

Montana - Tester
Tennessee - Ford
Ohio - Brown
Pennsylvania - Casey

I don't think Webb or McCaskill win, and I think Chafee keeps his seat.

hmm, not sure what strawman Democrat was predicting fifty seats in the House.

Just the little man in crazy Uncle Norman's head.

Linus:

I'm more worried about Tester than I am about Claire. I think the stem cell referendum -- especially with a Catholic group coming out for it -- will work just enough in her favor.

In Montana, the GOP has a showcase GOTV operation. Tester's gotta be up by at least 3% if he wants to overcome it ...

Ford, unfortunately, appears to be toast. Casey and Brown are done deals.

Menendez and Cardin hold. Virginia's a huge worry to me, but I still think Webb's got the mo ...

Bob

Here is a numerical exercise: say for the sake of argument that 10% of Republican voters avoid pollsters but only 3% of Democratic voters do so.

Thanks to about thirty years of work on political campaigns for Republicans in four different states, I can assure you--the number is much higher.

In the analog age, yes, polling was fairly effective. In this modern age of digital communication, no, polling doesn't tell you much. I think the problem is more acute now that more liberals are out of work by choice and sit around, lonely, waiting for any human interaction while your average Republican is taking advantage of this economy to make money and ignore people--pollsters in particular--that can't bring in any relevant information.

Too bad you libs were slapping each other on the back two weeks ago--I wonder what would happen if we dipped into the archives...

Bwah hah hah hah hah!

not sure what strawman Democrat was predicting fifty seats in the House.

All of them were--two weeks ago.

Go read it for yourselves.

Sorry, guys, it looks like momentum has gone republican. Kerry and Sadaam somehow combine to make it another disappointing election for Dems; who could have predicted that? But Dems still gain and, if they and their media friends had not been crowing about a wave, it would have been seen as a good night:

Senate - + 3
House - + 13

Bob,

You may be right. And here are my revised senate predictions:

Probable Democratic pickups:

Montana - Tester
Tennessee - Ford
Ohio - Brown
Pennsylvania - Casey
Rhode Island - Whitehouse

Possible Democratic pickups:

Missouri - McCaskill (this will depend I think on turnout, and it is a rare instance where an initiative [on stem cell research] is on the ballot that could boost turnout of Democrats and Democratic-leaning Independents)

I don't think Webb wins.

Norman:

Nobody's expectations were nearly as inflated as your blimpish ego :)

Nobody said 50 and 12, sheesh. And I personally never said we'd win the Senate, and I've kept my House prediction at an attainable 20.

As for the digital age; you may have somewhat of a point. There's a huge resistance to unsolicited phone calls in general. Remember the huge support for the federal Do Not Call list? A lot of those types don't distinguish polls from telemarketing. I admit that there's probably somewhat of a corrolary between income and distaste for unsolicited calls. A guy whose calls are screened at work by secretaries doesn't quite wish to be bothered at home. And many people have Call Block, which excludes numbers which don't show up on Caller ID -- which is everything out of a call center.

The countervailing trend, though, is cellphones. Many young people and working class households don't even have landlines anymore. And since many of these cells are prepaid, that number is entirely unlisted. Cell phone number turnover is so high it's not likely you're going to get a terribly useful list from voter registration forms. So many of these people are excluded from the surveys as well.

Keep something else in mind with your vaunted GOP poll-scoffers.

They're immune to GOTV calls, too.

Bob

I'll stick by my prediction from mid-October: 32 House, 6 Senate.

I hate to be cynical but I find it hard to believe that there are that many people undecided about this election. People made up their minds who they planned to vote for a long time ago and these last minute swings in voter opinion based on ? is pure bull.

Linus:

What makes you optimistic about Ford? And what makes you pessimistic about Webb?

I'm not disputing you, of course. Everybody's just making predictions. I'm just curious as to your reasoning ...

And as far as referenda go -- there are also meansures to increase the minimum wage on ballots in several states, which should help us as well.

Bob

All of them were--two weeks ago.

okay, point me to the link where all your imaginary Democrats here were predicting a fifty seat pickup. Oh, that's right, you can't. Thanks for playing.

too easy.

Oops. I want to change one more prediction. I'm putting the Rhode Island senate race into the possible pickups column for Democrats, and I still think Chafee may pull it off.

brian:

Everybody knew the race would tighten up. That's a law of physics.

But all Saddam does is keep Iraq front-and-center in the news, which doesn't help Republicans trying to de-nationalize the election.

And all the Kerry flap did was give the base a mean-spirited woodie for two days.

The first depresses undecideds and independents.

The second only excites the already excited.

So no -- you don't have any extra-special "momentum." The polls have been bouncing around, but none of your closer Senate races have busted out with lead outside of the MoE. And don't count Ford, because he was toast a week ago.

Bob

aline:

I tend to agree with you that perpetually undecided voters are the stupidest people in the Universe.

Bob

I'd rather bet on how many angels can dance on the head of a pin....

I predict that the Democrats pick up 25-35 House seats and 6 Senate seats (PA, OH, MO, MT, RI, and VA). In addition, I think that the Senate race in TE will end up a lot closer than presently thought. --Doug

Predictions? OK, I'll play -- 14 in the House, two in the Senate.

On Wednesday bloggers cry foul but Dems remain strangely quiet. Reid states that this is actually a win for the Dems and Bush needs to be more bi-partisan -- Bush says its a mandate and invites Jeff Gannon over for a little strip poker. In the end, another 1000 or more Americans die in Iraq, and Iran gets the bomb. Ohio State creams Michigan and plays Gallaudette in the BCS championship game. Ted Haggard makes a comeback by replacing Wolf Blitzer on CNN. Fox is declared the official news channel of the United States by Congress, and Mel Gibson is asked by the head of United Artists, Tom Cruise, to star in a remake of Tootsie.

There you have it. Good night.

One final note re: the Missouri senate race: it seems perfectly possible that Republicans could vote for the stem cell initiative and for Talent. It's also perfectly possible that opposition to stem cell research could boost turnout among an otherwise somewhat demoralized demoralized Republican base (which won't be enough to defeat the initiative but may well be enough to put Talent over the top). I think the advantage may be slightly Talent.

+3 Senate.
+18 House.

"What makes you optimistic about Ford? And what makes you pessimistic about Webb?"

Ford has the glow, and is more conservative on illegal immigration.

Conservatives respect Webb's service to his country, but he's too liberal on social issues for southside. A social moderate can win in Virginia during four year (presidential and governor's) elections but the DC suburbs don't turn out for off-year senate and house elections. Allen's presidential dreams are crushed but I think he wins another term.

House +10, Senate +2 . More importantly, the election process--the casting, counting and certification of votes--will be disrupted by mob action in at least five states.

Linus:

Hmmm. You could argue that both ways, I suppose. I don't see the sort of voter who'd vote yes for stem cells and yes for Talent to be the sort of voter who the stem cell referendum would have drawn to the polls. Referendum-driven voters -- who wouldn't vote otherwise -- tend to be eccentric types. I see that sort as more your typical Republican who votes for Talent for typically Republican reasons but also votes for stem cells despite the fact that Talent opposes the referendum. Does the Nancy Reagan thing, in other words.

The sort of voters who'd drag themselves to the polls to *oppose* the referenda are a different kettle of fish, and there I grant you, that could have a marginal effect on Talent's numbers, because it's quite likely they'll vote for him as well.

The question is, do the people pulled out by the amendment and do the philosophically consistent thing -- vote for Claire, too -- outnumber that group? I'm hoping and trusting they will.

For some reason I just get optimistic vibes about Missouri this year.

Heh. Maybe it's Global Citizen :)

Bob

Linus,

You're wrong about NC11. Taylor is toast. Period. Shuler's a conservative Dem and practically a God from when he played quarterback in Bryson City and at UT. He carries Asheville easily (yes, he's too conservative for them, but they HATE, HATE, HATE Taylor), and picks up enough votes in the rural areas to win easily.

Call your local news outlet if you have received deceptive robo-calls from the rncc.

Get it into the news immediately.

gemini:

What's your read on Webb's chances?

Enjoyed your comments on the Tennesee thread, btw.

Bob

One final note about the senate: I think Chafee has a very narrow advantage in Rhode Island (which is to say I have returned to my original predictions for the senate [with the caveat that the Missouri and Rhode Island races will be very close]).

The Pew, Gallup (USA Tofay) & ABC generic Congressional preference polls are all showing a collapse in the Democrats' numbers. Montana, Maryland and Rhode Island, which seemed near to sure things last week, are all in danger now (and MD would be a Republican pick-up). Kean isn't gaining in NJ, but Menendez isn't breaking 50% either.

Senate: +2
House: +16 and trending down.

If you can't trust Ann Coulter's analysis for this kind of thing, who can you trust?

House: 70 seats
Senate: what the hell, let's call it an even 20

"You're wrong about NC11."

I want to say that if being a sports hero was enough to get elected to political office Bill Bradley would be president, but I think that race could be very, very close. My mother's people come from southeast Kentucky, and that part of the world doesn't always obey the rules. I think turnout will be crucial, and I'd be pleased to find out I was wrong about that one.

To me, things are shaping up quite nicely. I fear a democratic wave because I don't think the country has quite hit bottom. A 5+ seat majority in the house and a tight, republican-controlled senate should be just enough for the dems to get their foot in the congressional door.

If things hold as they are, the republicans will have just enough power to piss off the remaining humans in the electorate in time for '08.

The Pew, Gallup (USA Tofay) & ABC generic Congressional preference polls are all showing a collapse in the Democrats' numbers.

to the contrary, the latest Gallup poll showed a significant Democratic lead, not a collapse at all.

got a link? I do.

The Democratic registered voter lead in the majority of Gallup Polls this year, including the most recent, is as large as any Democratic margin going back to 1982. It is possible that Gallup's final poll will pick up some major shift in voter sentiment. Barring such a change in the political climate, however, an analysis of the current poll numbers in the context of pre-election polling in previous midterm elections suggests a high probability that the Democrats will win the national popular House vote and take House seats from the Republicans. Unless Republicans can get their registered voter deficit down to single digits, they will be unlikely to overcome the Dem advantage in preference regardless of superior turnout efforts. There is a significant probability that the Democrats can win the 15 seats necessary to take control of the House of Representatives.

Speaker Pelosi. Get used to that.

I want to say that if being a sports hero was enough to get elected to political office Bill Bradley would be president

uh, but Bradley was elected Senator. Then there's Steve Largent in the House. And former Nebraska coach Tom Harkin. There have been many others, so your claim that sports stardom isn't enough to get elected to political is bullshit.

IN re the collapse: Gallup gave us a 23 point lead a month ago, 13 points two weeks ago, and 7 points now (51 - 44).

House +31
Senate +5

-----

That's down 5 House seats and 1 Senate seat from my earlier prediction.

Thanks, John "Douchebag" Kerry...

And, I should add, with gerrymandering and the Republicans' GOTV, seven points ain't gonna do it for us.

Brooklynite:

1) Gerrymandering has zero effect on polling -- only on whether those districts would've been competitive to begin with.

2) The GOP doesn't have the resources to run competent GOTV operations in all the districts it needs to.

3) If enthusiasm for the Republicans is down (as it will be in plenty of districts), all the microtargeting in the world isn't going to help matters enough to make the difference.

4) The "collapse" of which you speak is merely the natural tightening of the race as the election nears and people tune in. Our numbers are still substantially better than any midterm since '98.

Bob

Bob: Of course gerrymanders don't have an effect on polling. They have an effect on how many seats a pary wins. A well desinged gerrymander will allow a party that wins a minority of the overall popular vote (say 46%) to win a majority of the districts.

I hope that you are right about the Republican lack of enthusiasm. The pollsters may be over-sampling them.

As for a "natural" tightening, there is no such thing.

The GOP doesn't have the resources to run competent GOTV operations in all the districts it needs to.

Oh, that's the most asinine piece of unsubstantiated crud you've posted today. No get out the vote apparatus? Hello, you twit--did you forget that you have had your collective asses handed to you in the '98 midterms, the 2000 race, the 02 midterms, 2004 again and soon this year as well?

When you can shove your fist up your ass and yank out something accurate, please give us a ring, okay?

The Republican Party has the best get out the vote organization there is--people vote Republican just to keep scumbag liberals out of office.

Bah! And you liberals worship this rmck1 as your bloody patron saint, don't you? And look what a twit he really is.

That Norman sure elevates the tone of the discussion, doesn't he?

That Norman sure elevates the tone of the discussion, doesn't he?

Yes, well--ask rmck1 about that.

Criticize him and you'll get an ear full of it, kiddo. No, gently chide him for something and he'll call you every name in the book in three rapid posts, just as sure as you're sitting there dumbfounded and confused. He truly is a national treasure for the Republican Party--he is the best evidence yet that the Dumbocrats are unhinged. A poster child if there ever was one--plus he runs this place, y'know. Ask the regulars--they've all run off just to avoid dealing with his issues.

And that natural tightening is the sound of rmck1 failing to pull anything meaningful out of his ass. Just last evening he was posting racist comments to the effect that any African American who endorses Senate candidate Michael Steele cannot be a thinking person.

I mean--to say that the Republican Party doesn't have an adequate get out the vote apparatus is to reveal what a flaming twit the fellow really is.

And you wonder why no one reads this blog anymore.

Just happened to catch Our Great Leader going on about something on CNN, standing on an airport runway with Air Force One behind him and you could see this huge crack in the fuselage. It must not disable the plane from flying, but there it was.

What could it be?

As for an on-topic observation (what a concept), how many of you libs are ready to concede that Ford and Lamont are going to be flaming out in defeat on Tuesday?

Anyone willing to join the 'reality-based' crowd and admit they blew it on those two?

Anyone?

What could it be?

The derangement of yet another liberal.

Good night, kids. You live in a sick fantasy world, and your uncle Norman is the cure.

House 28
Senate 5

The groundswell for house change my prediction up 5.

2) The GOP doesn't have the resources to run competent GOTV operations in all the districts it needs to.

GWB increased his vote totals in 2004 by 23% after a recession, stock market collapse, and attack on NYC and during a nasty war in Iraq.

The GOTV programs are state wide and he does have them where he needs them. No state has more than a couple/few tight races anyway and California among many others has none.

If Democrtatic turnout isn't substantially higher than 1998 you won't win any seats.

Brooklynite:

I didn't even finish reading Norman's screed, don't worry. He's a human robo-call :)

Tightening is "natural" in the sense that it's observed behavior in every election. I certainly don't recall any election where the winning side started pulling away the last weekend before. If someone can, by all means point me in the direction of that history.

Norman:

I didn't say the GOP had *no* turnout operations. In some states, they have state-of-the-art operations, like in FL and MT. But they also have a lot of seats to defend, and a considerable number of them became competitive late in the game. It's one thing when you've got Katherine Harris or Rick Santorum to plug and you know this for a year. It's quite another when you've got to suddenly defend Ann Northrup or Deborah Pryce or folks in Indiana, Kentucky and, umm Iowa :) ...

Bob

I'm particularly looking forward to seeing little Ricky Santorum fighting back tears on tuesday night. Lamont losing to lieberman isn't the end of the world. And coming close in Tenn is more than respectable for an African-American candidate.

The country has regected the republican's policies, even if the virus that is your party's hold on power is tougher to kill than expected. The longer and tighter you guys hold on, the sweeter it's going to be when we finally kick you to the curb.

p.s., I will concede that Bob has been a little "un-civil" with you in the past. But you are really the last person that should be whining about it.

Norman:

Oh, and just a final correction before you get your beauty rest.

The Dems gained 5 seats in '98.

rdw:

GOP turnout will be substantially depressed for all the reasons I outlined on the previous thread.

You can lead a horse to water, but you can't make him vote :)

Bob

enozinho:

Concede *nothing* to Norman. He lives to try to sew dissention.

I've been far more civil to him than 1) nearly everyone else who responds to him and 2) than he so manifestly deserves.

I like to joust with him because I enjoy debate -- but Norman truly is an evil-hearted slandermongering fuck, aud deserves to be treated as such.

Bob

Our turnout operation is state of the art. We even have robots pissing off dem voters at 30 cents a pop. House 5 Senate 2. Just wait till Tuesday and you'll see why they call him turd blossum.

I did not participate Oct 25. No harm I presume.

Although the latest news shows the numbers closing, here's my guess (hope)

Gains for Dems:-
Senate - 7 - Lieberman proof majority
House - 33

rdw (from the other thread, about turnout):

I don't think you can be so smug about turnout; you're basing this on
extrapolations from '04, and I don't think that's quite fair to do so,
given the radically different climate.

First of all, Armageddon was around the corner in '04 after the Mass
gay marriage ruling and a bunch of mayors defiantly (and flamboyantly)
legalized it. You don't have quite the same impetus from the NJSC
decision, in an environment heavy with GOP and evangelical sex
scandals.

Secondly, the war's a disaster. The Army Times tomorrow will call for
Rummy's head. Conservative talking heads have turned against the war,
and that's a terrible signal to give the base before the election.

Third, terrorism is nowhere the kind of cutting issue it was two years
ago. There's a distance from 9/11 that's taken that sting away; people
see that law enforcement is breaking up plots and so everytime the GOP
brings up terrorism, this leads straight to Iraq, because of course
Iraq is the "central front in the GWoT." Terrorsm = Iraq doesn't do
much to help make Bush's case to the non-diehard. You don't have to
have followed the reports on NIE or Woodward's new book to see that
the Iraq war has created a new problem, not tried to solve an old one.

Fourth, the economy isn't cutting nearly as well as it should. Why?
Because in the GOP 'burbs where it should, these sorts of voters tend
to be pissed off at the GOP for the pork-barrel budget and the Iraq
war. Educated voters reside here, and the more you know about Bush and
his way of doing business, the more you feel congress is out of touch.
Constituent service is the only thing that can save the GOP's bacon in
many of these races. For people in the less affluent 'burbs and the
cities, younger folks, folks who took out an ARM to buy a house -- the
economic is actually looking precarious despite the employment stats
and surging DOW. Healthcare, college education, a sagging housing
market, corporate job insecurity have given the larger chunk of the
electorate a sense of malaise. In Michigan and Ohio, tell somebody on
a random street that the economy's good and be prepared for an angry
scowl. Many parts of red country are hurtin'. Dems doing well in red
country are preaching prairie populism.

Fifth, the best turnout machine in the world doesn't matter if you
don't have the wind at your back, if you don't have compelling reasons
for your base to vote. The three major segments of the GOP have
reasons to be furious -- the social conservatives for the sex scandals
and lack of movement on their agenda (and don't think evangelicals
weren't pissed when Bush threw Harriet Meiers under the bus), the
fiscal conservatives for the pork barrel budget and the libertarians
for the rape of the Constitution. With precious little in the way of
legislative accomplishment (and two court appointments who haven't yet
demonstrated their worth to the base with decisions), a disasterous
war in Iraq, no real leverage against Iran and NK and a glass half
empty / glass half full economy, there's precious little in the way of
good news the GOP can stay on message about.

So what are they running on? Constituent service and outrageously
negative attacks. Attempts to turn Nancy Pelosi (who nobody really
knows) into Margaret Hamilton from the Wizard of Oz. Panic-button
social issue fearmongering. Is this going to work?

I don't think it's going to work as well as it did in '04. I think the
well has run dry on many of these things.

But we're going to see soon enough ...

Cardin, Whitehouse and Menendez hold. Webb, Tester and McCaskill pull
out squeakers.

20+ in the House minimum.

Bob

The derangement of yet another liberal.

Ackk! In space no one can see you bleed! --it just forms a fine mist around your space suit, like the subtle detail of Norman's thought, the jet (or is it the mass transfer?) sending you further into the darkness.

But that crack in George's fuselage is actually there.

cld: You just blew my mind. Don't bogart Haggard's stash man.

How Republicans remain resolutely un-hip to these carnival preachers is beyond me.

At this point how can anyone not recognize there is a significant cognitive impairment that leads to social conservatism and authoritarian personality disorder? It's so clearly a learning disability.

Another prediction...

At least one key election will be contested and resolved around Thanksgiving.

Since this game is free, let me throw in a wild prediction for comic relief.

If Webb wins John Edwards is going to be president in 2008.

Reasoning: By 2008 whatever patience the nation has left for the republicans will have evaporated. Moderates are going to jump at the chance to elect a charming southerner. Besides he's not Hillary.

John Edwards is going to be president in 2008.

John Edwards could not even win his home state in 2004. His working class hero schtick hasn't worked since the 60's. There just aren't enough old libs and they're not allowed to get excited anyway.

Hillary is your girl. Bill Clinton calls the shots and if he says Hillary is the candidate Hillary is the candidate and there's nothing anyone else can do about it.

I like to joust with him because I enjoy debate -- but Norman truly is an evil-hearted slandermongering fuck, aud deserves to be treated as such.

You don't have the brains to joust with a dead rat.

And it's not slander if I quote exactly what you said, you know. You should think about that for a moment--how can I slander you when I'm merely quoting what you said?

Remedial learning programs are usually pretty effective. Maybe you could pick up a copy of Hooked on Phonics and learn something before you post again.

And you wonder why you spend more time fighting off your liberal brethren than anyone else!

House: 232 D, 203 R
Senate: 50 D (includes Sanders, Lieberman), 50 R
[Liberman switches to R in exchange for Homeland Security Committee chair]
Governors: 29 D, 21 R

I'll stick to my original.
Senate-5
House-27

House: Dems +31
Senate: Dems +6, but Lieberman winning takes off .7, so the adjusted value is 5.3

House +14
Senate +4
Governors 27D

Keep Down the Vote Efforts by the GOP (robocalls and other voter suppression tactics) are gonna reduce our pickups.

We''ll do well on state-level races, though, 'cos NRCC dirty tactics won't be relevant to those.

I originally said 13 House 3 Senate and Lieberman flips. I update to 25 House, 4 Senate and Lieberman flips like Sideshow Bob - still.

I've been out of the loop. Charlie is Chuck now? How many other iterations has he gone through in the last month?

I do love the GOP "threat" that Lieberman will go Republican. There's not a thing for him to gain this way, unless Dems get the magic number of Senate seats (I don't think we will) and there's an actual balance to be tipped. As a lying, petty, sniveling fake Democrat, Lieberman has Peter Pettigrew power. As a Republican, he's just another bad legislator, low on the totem pole.

If you can’t stomach what has to be done to debride the putrid, festering wound that is the Bush administration, its okay to sit this one out.
I swear no allegiance to any political party; I am an American first, last and always.

Huh, I had to look up "debride." Now I want to use it in every sentence. Thanks, Kandis!

Dems overcome the massive negative campaign, short-term memory of undecided voters, new voter ID laws, and those dubious electronic voting machines to gain:
31 House seats
6 Senate seats

Sadly:

Dems +14 House
Dems + 3 Senate

Every time I go over the list I find no more than 14 House seats assured of going our way. In the Senate we'll take OH, PA and RI. That's it.

With Diebold/poll tightening/typical GOP strong close, we will lose almost all the close ones again. Unfortunately I see no compelling reason to bet against recent history.

26 House pickups, 5 in the Senate.

Webb victory looking difficult, McCaskill more promising.

Hussein verdict just reminds people what an ugly mess the Iraq war is. We all knew it was a foregone conclusion.

shortstop, Lieberman has Peter Pettigrew power!

Yes, that is exactly what Lieberman has! Except he can't easily hide underneath things. He either has failed Peter Pettigrew power or his egotism has inflated his ratness so much he needs a forklift.

It's the largeness of his triviality he wants to share, like David Broder.

Trying not to be evil is distinct from not caring at all. Lieberman knows only his own selfishness and pettiness. He's a Republican in everything but name.

Republicans actually went out of their way to insult Jeffords, because he wasn't worthless enough for them.

I think it's going to be a bad night for us. Hope I'm wrong.

Senate: Republicans 54, Dems 46 (counting Lieberman & Sanders as Dems)

House: Republicans 219 Dems 216

I think Republican dirty tricks, their GOTV operation and the momentum they have going into the race will kill us.

So, that means Jeffords was not a "traitor" but Lieberman will be?

Exactly.

House +38. Senate +5.

4 way race in il-08

pro-choice, pro-war bean (incumbent dino)
anti-choice, pro-war mcsweeney (gop)
anti-choice, anti-war scheurer (i)
pro-choice, anti-war write-in jonathan farnick (i)

Dems actually win 6 Senate but Republicans devise legal scheme and contest 1 seat all the way to the Supreme Court, leaving Dems with 5.

This is Winthrop Beans here, and I want to tell you liberals that the Republican Party is going to win tomorrow. Yes, I said win.

We're going to win every single race and we're going to send you packing!

Good riddance to you all! I refuse to pay higher taxes and I refuse to concede anything!

After tomorrow, you liberals won't know which was is up!

That is all.

I am a pessimist.

3 in the Senate.
15 in the House.

Winthrop Beans:

You know a Norman Rogers, by any chance?

Bob

the Senate.
15 in the House.

Posted by: Paul on November 6, 2006 at 6:14 PM | PERMALINK
Winthrop Beans:

You know a Norman Rogers, by any chance?

Bob

Posted by: rmck1 on November 6, 2006 at 6:19 PM | PERMALINK
???

yes, i certainly do>html tag here

POST

House +32 - Dems have about 13 gimmies, then they also win 75% of 25 others in play, so 13 + 19 = 32

Senate +6 - Dems win VA, MT, PA, RI, MO, and OH do not loose ANY incumbents

This is a 'Wave' election as such things are called, ignore the 'tightening' talk it was just a momentary polling glitch due to Kerry.

Stormin Normin Winthrop Beans Rogers,
You sir, are a Zit on the Ass of Humanity.
NNTR

Fuck you gop!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Hey Repukelicans,
Lets hear your half-assed bullshit now you morons!
In all fairness I would like to say just one thing...FUCKYOU!!!

Not a Dem or Repuke. Impeachment anyone?

American ChickenHawk Baby!

Where are you pal? By the way, pal stands for personal ass licker! Drop a line loser boy, we can chat about that election stuff you dillhole. All snipeing aside, I give thanks that enough of America came to its senses in time. Geez!

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