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November 7, 2006

EXIT POLLS....I guess the Fort Knox-like security surrounding this year's exit polls worked. I've seen no leaks anywhere.

But it's now after 5 pm, and that means CNN is releasing some early exit poll results. There's nothing yet about individual races, but Bill Schneider says:

  • Issue most often chosen as "extremely important": It's a close call. 42% say corruption in Washington, followed closely by terrorism, the economy, and Iraq.

  • 57% disapprove of the war in Iraq.

  • A majority say Democrats can deal well with terrorism and national security.

  • 62% say national issues determined their vote. Politics is not local this year.

More later when they report it.

UPDATE: Republicans have been talking up the economy for the past few weeks, but people who named that as an extremely important issue voted for Democrats by 20 points. Apparently having a great economy for the richest 10% of the country hasn't won the GOP very many votes. Imagine that.

Republicans are still ahead on their handling of terrorism, but only by a little bit.

Kevin Drum 5:25 PM Permalink | Trackbacks | Comments (37)
 
Comments

Frist!

Posted by: Urinated State of America on November 7, 2006 at 5:27 PM | PERMALINK

EXIT POLLS But it's now after 5 pm, and that means CNN is releasing some early exit poll results.

Isn't CNN the same network that release exit polls saying Gore won Florida in 2000 and Kerry won Ohio in 2004? *Snicker* When will libs finally realize exit polls are wrong because the silent majority of Americans are conservatives who support George W Bush and the Republican Party and don't want to cut and run in Iraq?

Posted by: Al on November 7, 2006 at 5:29 PM | PERMALINK

More seriously, these figures don't look good for the Repubs. That, and high turnout, and maybe tonight won't be the gutwrenching letdown the past three elections have been.

Posted by: Urinated State of America on November 7, 2006 at 5:29 PM | PERMALINK

So after hearing over and over about how this election is all about Iraq, it turns out the voters are more agitated about corruption? Could the media get anymore disconnected from what people actually care about?

Mike

Posted by: MBunge on November 7, 2006 at 5:30 PM | PERMALINK

Blitzer & Greenfield seemed to hint that they wouldn't be able to project VA Senate on the basis of exit polls...

Posted by: PRB on November 7, 2006 at 5:32 PM | PERMALINK

My guess is that the exit poll info reported is good news for Dems.

I see those as talking about Iraq as their top issue as tilting Democratic, and those talking about terrorism as their top issue tilting Republican. Between the two, since their numbers are about the same, I see a wash. The issue of economy in isolation I see as a wash.

But what I DON'T see as a wash is the very top issue, corruption. That's got to go 80% Dem, I'd guess.

Put it all together, you should get a very large tilt toward the Dems.

Posted by: frankly0 on November 7, 2006 at 5:38 PM | PERMALINK

I like to think that my Man-Breasts are like the buds on a young girl!

Posted by: Chuck on November 7, 2006 at 5:39 PM | PERMALINK

Al: "Wasn't CNN the one that said Gore won Florida in 2000"

Yes, and as we all know now, CNN was correct about that. What CNN didn't know was the extent that thuggery and a SCOTUS coup would play.

Posted by: jerry on November 7, 2006 at 5:49 PM | PERMALINK

And Kerry did win Ohio.

http://www.rollingstone.com/news/story/10432334/was_the_2004_election_stolen

Posted by: jerry on November 7, 2006 at 5:50 PM | PERMALINK

"When will libs finally realize exit polls are wrong because the silent majority of Americans are conservatives who support George W Bush and the Republican Party and don't want to cut and run in Iraq?"

Does this "silent majority" want to do anything about run-on sentences?

Posted by: Knuckles on November 7, 2006 at 5:53 PM | PERMALINK

Does this "silent majority" want to do anything about run-on sentences?

only if they can be used as a wedge issue.

Posted by: cleek on November 7, 2006 at 5:58 PM | PERMALINK

I say "cut and run" on run-on sentences.

Posted by: mrsdoris on November 7, 2006 at 5:59 PM | PERMALINK

Either the description is wrong or the graphic is. Those totals can't account for people's "most important" issue because they add up to almost 160%.

Posted by: Aaron S. Veenstra on November 7, 2006 at 6:02 PM | PERMALINK

Chuck, if you think that 83 for one second actually helps protect children, then you haven't learned anything about the issue.
Peruse these links about the problems with the proposal (including forcing invalids to leave their nursing homes) and, even more convincing, a report from a prosecutor's group which has actually tried similar methods and discovered problems.
Link
Link (PDF)

Nice try with the pedophile smear, Chuck: it's good to see that Republicans still spend an unholy amount of time thinking about pedophiles and child sex.

Posted by: torrentprime on November 7, 2006 at 6:05 PM | PERMALINK

Chuck,

"Perhaps "Corruption" was the first multiple choice anser given on the exit polls?"

I would hope that pollsters would have enough brains to vary the first choice given on their questionaires.

Mike

Posted by: MBunge on November 7, 2006 at 6:06 PM | PERMALINK

Kevin --

The poll wasn't about "the most important issue" it simply asked whether each of those issues was "extremely important."

So it's quite possible that Iraq would have been the "most important" if people had to choose only one.

Posted by: Touchdown on November 7, 2006 at 6:06 PM | PERMALINK

I like to think that my Man-Breasts are like the buds on a young girl!

They are spectactular. I can't quit you.

Posted by: Ted Haggard on November 7, 2006 at 6:06 PM | PERMALINK

So do voting totals,Since Repugs started stealing elections.

Posted by: Thomas2.0 on November 7, 2006 at 6:07 PM | PERMALINK

Kevin, while the rest of the country is concentrating on the election, the Chicago Tribune went about its dirty work and canned the editor of the LA Times, Dean Baquet.

For those who don't know, Baquet's crime was standing up to the Tribune's demand that the Times layoff a not too insignificant percentage of the editorial staff. Baquet didn't see how firing reporters helped a newspaper report the news. In an amazing show of courage, his publisher, Jeff Johnson, backed his editor up and defied the Tribune. He was, of course, fired.

Posted by: Dicksknee on November 7, 2006 at 6:08 PM | PERMALINK

The poll wasn't about "the most important issue" it simply asked whether each of those issues was "extremely important."

Just looking at the numbers, it's obviously so.

The top 4 issues add up to about 160%. Clearly, people could choose more than one.

Posted by: frankly0 on November 7, 2006 at 6:15 PM | PERMALINK

'A "majority" of Americans think the Democrats can deal well with terrorism and national security?'
--chuck

Yeah, Chuck. I just can't figure out why they don't trust a guy who sat staring blankly into space for seven minutes after being told, "American is under attack" and then went and hid in a cornfield in Nebraska. Doesn't that show how tough he is on terrorism? After all, he has only had five years to get the #1 and #2 men in al-Qaeda. It isn't like he had them cornered in the mountains of Afghanistan or anything.

Posted by: The Conservative Deflator on November 7, 2006 at 6:20 PM | PERMALINK

hmmm... you know, having not read the commnets here much over the last few months, it is clear y'all are enjoying a replacement Al. How long has this pale imitation been posting under the Al troll name, and why can't the RNC get better house trolls?

Posted by: israelhand on November 7, 2006 at 6:20 PM | PERMALINK

After all, he has only had five years to get the #1 and #2 men in al-Qaeda.

Yes, but give him credit -- he's gotten the #3 man about twenty-seven times. I believe it was Matt Yglesias who pointed out that being the al Qaeda #3 is becoming more hazardous than being Spinal Tap's drummer.....

And let's not forget George "Lame Duck" Bush's spectacular answer as to why he hadn't found Osama bin Laden yet: "Because he's hiding."

Posted by: Stefan on November 7, 2006 at 6:33 PM | PERMALINK

You know, I've suddenly become a little baffled by this hermetically sealed room thing. How can they receive and review exit polls in a room where they can't send out information? Do they have a 1950s style teletype? A fax with a phoneline with outbound service disabled? Interns come in with hard copy, and aren't allowed to leave afterwards? And, FTM, the source material has to be outside the room. I mean, the pollsters produce reports, and those reports have to be outside the room before they go in.

Don't they?

Posted by: jayackroyd on November 7, 2006 at 6:49 PM | PERMALINK

The Great Al said:
... the silent majority of Americans are conservatives who support George W Bush and the Republican Party and don't want to cut and run in Iraq?

*Snicker* Is Al the pen name for Baghdad Bob?

Posted by: Ramki on November 7, 2006 at 7:12 PM | PERMALINK
Democrats can deal well with terrorism and national security? Chuck 5:28 PM
Clinton certainly did better than Bush. 9-11 was because Bush ignored all warning, then ran like a scared rabbit.
pedophile vote went to the Democrats with the No on Propositions 83 and 85 campaigns. Posted by: Chuck on November 7, 2006 at 5:53 PM
Since prop 85 is designed to allow abusive and incestuous parents further control of their nefarious deeds, and taking into account Foley, Kolbe, and the vast coverup by the Republican House leadership, that statement is patently absurd. Posted by: Mike on November 7, 2006 at 7:30 PM | PERMALINK

Just perfect.

Posted by: R. Rosenbaum on November 7, 2006 at 8:05 PM | PERMALINK

..Interns come in with hard copy, and aren't allowed to leave afterwards? And, FTM, the source material has to be outside the room. I mean, the pollsters produce reports, and those reports have to be outside the room before they go in.

Don't they?

Posted by: jayackroyd on November 7, 2006 at 6:49 PM | PERMALIN

It's old fashioned, I know, but there used to be such a thing as 'your word' and an agreement not to print until a set time. I know it's a hard concept to grasp, particularly in the modern age of complete (particularly Republican) manipulation and press $-grabbing, but it used to be that your word could be kept.

Not any more. But it should be so. But not silence that undermines the Reppublic. That would be treasonous.

Posted by: notthere on November 7, 2006 at 8:35 PM | PERMALINK

Tradesports odds for a Democratic house have gone up from 80% yesterday to 95% right now. Odds for a Democratic Senate have gone up from 20% yesterday to almost 40%.

Posted by: JS on November 7, 2006 at 8:49 PM | PERMALINK

For Webb: 50.0 bid / 54.5 ask -- down from 70% for Webb a few days ago. Thin volume.

Posted by: JS on November 7, 2006 at 9:03 PM | PERMALINK

Sorry, those numbers are for Allen (GOP).

Posted by: JS on November 7, 2006 at 9:04 PM | PERMALINK

why's chucky boy so active today? Nervous? Desperate? it's too late chucky.

Posted by: billy on November 7, 2006 at 9:16 PM | PERMALINK

Chucky, as a non-american, i'm personally rooting for you repugs to hold both. there's nothing more fascinating than watching you clowns perform breathtaking intellectual cartwheels in the fetid moral swamp that is the U.S.of A. Only when the chimp-in-chief drives the economy into depression, and the few remaining rational members of the populace into unholy madness, can your absurdly self-absorbed country begin to claw its way back towards the light.

Posted by: billy on November 7, 2006 at 9:28 PM | PERMALINK

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Posted by: 手机图片 on November 8, 2006 at 7:58 AM | PERMALINK

It's old fashioned, I know, but there used to be such a thing as 'your word' and an agreement not to print until a set time. I know it's a hard concept to grasp, particularly in the modern age of complete (particularly Republican) manipulation and press $-grabbing, but it used to be that your word could be kept.

Yeah, I'm fine with all that. But then why didn't they just say that? Why didn't they just say that they were limiting access to the results to a smaller number of people, and that those people have promised not to leak the results?

I saw the first set of results on CNN (regarding voter sentiment on issues rather than winners or losers) and it was clear that they had them in advance of the embargo.

Posted by: jayackroyd on November 8, 2006 at 11:06 AM | PERMALINK

Chuck N' Buck. Suck N' Fuck.

LOSER!!!!! HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!!!!

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