Editore"s Note
Tilting at Windmills

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November 8, 2006
By: Kevin Drum

DOW UP! DOW DOWN!....Earlier this morning I was griping about the kind of dumbo financial reporting that pretends there's a reason for every tiny change in the stock market. Some days it's "Dow Drops on Kazakhstan Potassium Worries," other days it's "Dow Drops After Dem Takeover of Congress." Both are about equally meaningful.

But guess what? The Dow set a new record today! So how did CNN explain this peculiar state of affairs? Here's their subhead today:

Techs lead turnaround as investors move beyond possible Democratic control of Congress

Yes, you read that right. Not "Dow Moves Randomly for No Special Reason." Not "Dow Welcomes Democratic Victory." Not "Dow Higher on Hopes of Iraq Withdrawal."

Nope. The mind readers at CNN decided that in the space of just a few hours investors had both panicked and recovered over the dire threat to the economy posed by Nancy Pelosi. Crikey.

Kevin Drum 9:37 PM Permalink | Trackbacks | Comments (108)

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Comments

Once again, Kevin Drum thinks he knows more about the economy than legions of economists with PhDs. Democrats = Bad for the economy. Witness the gerat economy the republican congress led us into in the 90's.

Posted by: American Hawk on November 8, 2006 at 9:40 PM | PERMALINK

Good point Chuck. I'd love to see how it moved up after his speech.

Posted by: American Hawk on November 8, 2006 at 9:43 PM | PERMALINK

I tried to leave a similar comment over at Drezner's -- he seems to still have one foot near the reality based world.

Posted by: jerry on November 8, 2006 at 9:43 PM | PERMALINK

Or, perhaps investors regained some confidence after the President calmed fears about the Democrats taking over?

I agree. They were calmed after Pelosi said she would try to be bi-partisan and Bush said the same thing. Right now investors will give Pelosi the benefit of the doubt she'll keep her word unless she proves otherwise.

Posted by: Al on November 8, 2006 at 9:43 PM | PERMALINK

Really, american hawk, that was the republican congress? Seems like the president was a Democrat, with recent majorities in both houses of congress, which, admittedly, they lost, but you conservatives take such joy in pointing out that it's PAST politics that move the economy, not present...

Posted by: Extravagent Gryphon on November 8, 2006 at 9:45 PM | PERMALINK

Reuters had an earlier story blaming a small market drop on the prospect of Dem rule. When the market went back up later in the day, they credited Rumsfeld's departure.

Posted by: jimBOB on November 8, 2006 at 9:46 PM | PERMALINK

Good point Al. Things will probably change if Democrats unveil a plan to raise taxes or surrender to terrorists.

Posted by: American Hawk on November 8, 2006 at 9:47 PM | PERMALINK

Anybody who lived through the 90's knows just how bad Dems were for the tech sector.

On a more serious note, I think the Kazakhstan potassium situation is very worrisome.

Posted by: alex on November 8, 2006 at 9:49 PM | PERMALINK

Once again, Kevin Drum thinks he knows more about the economy than legions of economists with PhDs.

The headline Kevin is refering to was written by
a CNN reporter, not "legions of economists with PhD's"

Or, perhaps investors regained some confidence after the President calmed fears about the Democrats taking over?

Or, perhaps it had nothing to do with politics at all.

Posted by: Stephen on November 8, 2006 at 9:49 PM | PERMALINK

Chuck, Al and American Hawk. Please. Get real.

Here, let me lay it out for you. Again.

The market gapped down this morning. Within 15 minutes -- there was rapid buying bringing it right back up. Dumb money (retail -- most likely Republicans) followed by smart money. The market really started to soar when Rumsfeld resignation was announced. Now if you continue to try and twist that reality -- you really give new meaning to intellectual dishonesty.

Also -- another fact -- the markets started to rebound in August when it became apparent that at least one branch of government may be going to the Democrats.

You really are making yourselves look foolish -- especially to those who know the markets. Which you obviously don't.

Posted by: Ack on November 8, 2006 at 9:53 PM | PERMALINK

Do two trolls conversing with each other form a null value or a net negative?

Posted by: Ten in Tenn on November 8, 2006 at 9:57 PM | PERMALINK

"Earlier this morning I was griping...."

If that phrase doesn't capture the heart and soul of today's Metrosexual Liberal man, what does??

Posted by: Frequency Kenneth on November 8, 2006 at 9:58 PM | PERMALINK

OK conservative shills, you blew it. You prognosticated and were proven dead wrong. Now we're supposed to believe that these conservative shills know anything about economics or anything that uses numbers at all.

Balderdash.

Posted by: T.R. Elliott on November 8, 2006 at 10:02 PM | PERMALINK

It would appear that all good Americans (read: liberals) have gone to bed early tonight, trying to knock out the hangover after celebrating getting our country back, leaving this thread pretty much exclusively for trolls.

Hey trolls: how you like yo' crow?

Posted by: Chocolate Thunder on November 8, 2006 at 10:03 PM | PERMALINK

The changing market was obviously driven by the presence of an 84% full waning gibbous Moon. Yesterday's 82% full was just a temporary adjustment. Don't you libruls know anything?

Posted by: fyreflye on November 8, 2006 at 10:05 PM | PERMALINK

Interesting how our two trolls seem incapable of considering the "market" may appreciate the possibility of a move to begin the reduction of our massive republican deficits. And that the republican deficits are a massive tax in their own right.

Posted by: joeis on November 8, 2006 at 10:09 PM | PERMALINK

Kevin Drum will spend the next 2 years whining every time CNN and the networks don't bow down in honor and deference to Nancy Pelosi.

Posted by: Down goes Frazier on November 8, 2006 at 10:09 PM | PERMALINK

If that phrase doesn't capture the heart and soul of today's Metrosexual Liberal man, what does??

How about: "We won"?

Posted by: floopmeister on November 8, 2006 at 10:09 PM | PERMALINK

Hey trolls: how you like yo' crow?/

Posted by: Chocolate Thunder

yes, where were all the turd-polishers, premature gloaters and eager bettors last night? i was hoping they were all busy sticking their heads in the oven, but i guess not.

your pal,
blake

Posted by: blake on November 8, 2006 at 10:14 PM | PERMALINK

Kevin Drum will spend the next 2 years whining

You can try and double up on your trolling by posting under two names as usual (wooo, ya fooled us!) but at least have the good grace to change them to monikers more appropriate for your role as a troll under a Democratically-controlled Congress.

I suggest "Frequently Incontinent" and "Down Goes l'il Kenneth."

Posted by: trex on November 8, 2006 at 10:15 PM | PERMALINK

Witness the gerat economy the republican congress led us into in the 90's.

Witness the fact the no Republicans voted for the Clinton '93 budget and all the Republican wizards predicted doom and gloom.

(Did I just re-act to a bait American Hawk?)

Posted by: Jeffrey Davis on November 8, 2006 at 10:16 PM | PERMALINK

Did you see how True Religion Apparel Inc. dropped on news of the atheist victory?

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=TRLG&t=5d

Posted by: American Buzzard on November 8, 2006 at 10:22 PM | PERMALINK

Some days it's "Dow Drops on Kazakhstan Potassium Worries," other days it's "Dow Drops After Dem Takeover of Congress." Both are about equally meaningful.

What does it mean?

It means that the person writing that headline is fucking biased.

Watch "The Revolution Will Not Be Televised."

You can occasionally attribute causes one way or another, when something big happens. But the market is an incredibly complex system, and you NEVER see the folks who write these kinds of headlines back it up with hard data, even a poll among traders, or people who bought or sold that day. You NEVER see that. It's all bullshit wishful thinking and speculation.

Here's what I would be thinking if I was an investor:
"Thank God! I'm sick of Defense Contractors, Oil Companies, and Pharmaceutical Companies getting all the Corporate Welfare. Now some other sectors of the American Industry might finally get a chance."

Posted by: osama_been_forgotten on November 8, 2006 at 10:24 PM | PERMALINK

The trolls sound like leaky balloons.

Posted by: Joey Giraud on November 8, 2006 at 10:25 PM | PERMALINK

Contrary to conservative propaganda, equity markets do better under Democratic rule. It's a fact.

Democrats foster a regulated, stable growth environment that equity investors crave, not the laissez faire, herky-jerky, tax cut flavor of the month business environment that modern conservatives seem to get a nut off promoting.

Posted by: The Conservative Deflator on November 8, 2006 at 10:25 PM | PERMALINK

Interesting how our two trolls seem incapable of considering the "market" may appreciate the possibility of a move to begin the reduction of our massive republican deficits.

Exactly. Plus the other clue in the markets about the disasterous deficit -- is the dollar and gold. As the deficit has gone up, the dollar has collapsed and gold has entered a new bull market. The steady erosion of the value of the dollar means we will all be poorer in the future.

But hey, I'm sure Al, Chuck and American Hawk will echo Dick Cheney's famous "deficits don't matter" ridiculousness. It really boggles the mind.

Posted by: Ack on November 8, 2006 at 10:29 PM | PERMALINK

Well, must be consistent and all that.

Posted by: Alexander Wolfe on November 8, 2006 at 10:31 PM | PERMALINK

This is REALLY bad for Democrats. Really bad. Did I mention this will REALLY HURT Democrats? Really bad.

Posted by: Sean Hannity on November 8, 2006 at 10:35 PM | PERMALINK

Re: American Hawk, Al, Chuck, et al, ad nauseum; either these guys are actually Kevin trying to stir up some comment wars...or they really have no lives and sit here hitting 'refresh' all day.

Whatsa matter fellas? Not enough stimulating debate over at Redstate or LGF?

Posted by: Speed on November 8, 2006 at 10:39 PM | PERMALINK

Frequency Kenneth! I have some permalinks for you that I saved before the election. Would you like to see them?

Posted by: Global Citizen on November 8, 2006 at 10:41 PM | PERMALINK

yes, where were all the turd-polishers, premature gloaters and eager bettors last night? i was hoping they were all busy sticking their heads in the oven, but i guess not.
Posted by: blake on November 8, 2006 at 10:14 PM | PERMALINK

No; the American Taliban are now busy putting together their Suicide Belts and IED's to being their long campaign to Liberate White Christian American Families from the Tyranny of Godless Communist San Francisco values and the Gay Agenda.

Long live the revolution guys!

Posted by: osama_been_forgotten on November 8, 2006 at 10:41 PM | PERMALINK

Well, two American soldiers died in Iraq today. See what happens when Democrats control Congress? With Nancy Pelosi in charge, we're likely to see suicide bombings, ethnic cleansing and civil war in Iraq break out. It's a shame. We were winning last week.

Posted by: Wingnut du Jour on November 8, 2006 at 10:43 PM | PERMALINK

Here is the first one, Frequency. My how prescient you were!!!

Is it me, or is Kevin sounding especially discouraged over the past week or so?
I have a hunch it's starting to sink in to the Dems that they aren't likely to win the upcoming elections. Howard Dean? A failure. The Dem strategy of Bush-bashing? Another failure. Lefty net-root kooks like Kos? A failure.
Posted by: Frequency Kenneth on September 20, 2006 at 1:54 AM

Posted by: Global Citizen on November 8, 2006 at 10:46 PM | PERMALINK

You know, about this sudden willingness of Bush to get along with the Democrats.

I DON'T BUY IT FOR A SECOND!!!

Tell ya what he is, he's shakin' in his boots at the thought of investigations. Like say investigations of what really happened on and before 911. Investigations of the Cheney energy commission. Etc. Etc. Etc.

Look, since day one the guy has been nothing but a divisive shit, so I say

INVESTIGATE!

If something big IS lurking under he carpet history will hold the Democrats responsible if, in the interests of unilateral sweetness they let it go. 3,000 plus lives were lost that day, the least their families deserve is a full accounting.

Posted by: Off Topic on November 8, 2006 at 10:48 PM | PERMALINK

"To spend is to tax."-Milton Friedman

Bush didn't cut taxes,he simply deferred them to future generations of tax payers.He then had the nerve to go on a tax-payer funded tour telling people (a lie) that future generations shouldn't be burdened with social programs that will "go broke."
Funny about that.

Posted by: TJM on November 8, 2006 at 10:48 PM | PERMALINK

You expect them to tell the truth?

To wit:

Dow rises on expectations of Bush being tried and hung as a WAR CRIMINAL.

Bush is responsible for MORE Iraqi deaths that Saddam.

Sure he deserves a trial...
And if found guilty he deserves the noose.

The markets are all for it....

Posted by: ROTFLMLiberalAO on November 8, 2006 at 10:54 PM | PERMALINK

Frequency? You there? I have more. I've been saving them in a file called "Throw these at Frequency Kenneth after the Election." Please come back! I so want to share your prescient wit!

Posted by: Global Citizen on November 8, 2006 at 10:55 PM | PERMALINK

Okay Bob - you got me - I'm troll whacking.

Posted by: Global Citizen on November 8, 2006 at 10:58 PM | PERMALINK

Well, anyway, it seems as if my work, here, as "osama_been_forgotten" is done.

Clearly, Americans do, now, FINALLY, remember 9/11. They remember who attacked us. They remember where he was from. (and where he was NOT from). They remember who he worked for. (and they now know who he did NOT work for). They remember who promised to catch him. (and they remember who failed to catch him, and wasted half a trillion dollars in the process).


They remember Osama Bin Laden. And they have voted such that something be done about him.

So now, I'll change my screen name to our next goal:
impeach.remove.convict.justice

Posted by: osama_been_forgotten on November 8, 2006 at 11:03 PM | PERMALINK

"Whatsa matter fellas? Not enough stimulating debate over at Redstate or LGF?"

I tried commenting over at red state recently. They banned me almost immediately. Banned my account/email combo. When I returned under alternate email address (thanks yahoo), they banned those. Finally they banned my IP address. I can't even see what they are saying at red state (thank you red state).

A cult if you ask me.

We need to stop speaking in terms of conservatives and liberals. The trolls who visit here aren't conservatives. And they know nothing about liberalism.

What shall we call them? Zealots? Fanatics? Reactionaries? There has to be a term that is appropriate.

Posted by: T.R. Elliott on November 8, 2006 at 11:04 PM | PERMALINK

Like this.

Posted by: impeach.remove.convict.justice on November 8, 2006 at 11:04 PM | PERMALINK

"Morons" works for me.

Posted by: Global Citizen on November 8, 2006 at 11:06 PM | PERMALINK

I invested the thousand dollars Thomas bet us that the Republicans would maintain control of Congress.

Ahhhhhhhh. Champagne Latte.

Posted by: Sparko on November 8, 2006 at 11:10 PM | PERMALINK

Osama still forgotten:

Fair enough.

But I respectfully suggest:

impeach.remove.convict.hang.

Bush is a war criminal.
He has killed more Iraqis than S.Hussein.

He deserves to sway from a palm....

Posted by: ROTFLMLiberalAO on November 8, 2006 at 11:11 PM | PERMALINK

Right - forgot. I'll go with the more broad "punish".

Posted by: impeach.remove.convict.punish.justice on November 8, 2006 at 11:12 PM | PERMALINK

Oh and while were at it,

PAY U.S. BACK

Halliburton
The Lincoln Group
etc.

You OWE the American people HUNDREDS OF BILLIONS OF DOLLARS!

WHY should these scamming RIP OFF ARTISTS be allowed to KEEP their ill gotten gains based on war lies? Where is all that money?

PAY U.S. BACK
PAY U.S. BACK
PAY U.S. BACK

Posted by: Off Topic on November 8, 2006 at 11:19 PM | PERMALINK


PAY U.S. BACK!!!

Posted by: Off Topic on November 8, 2006 at 11:20 PM | PERMALINK

Frequency Kenneth? Come back! Please!

Posted by: Global Citizen on November 8, 2006 at 11:24 PM | PERMALINK

I could go with calling the trolls "Poopie Heads". It is first used by children with undeveloped minds which describes the trolls!

Posted by: R.L. on November 8, 2006 at 11:27 PM | PERMALINK

I would like to personally thank the CEOs of the major oil companies for their contributions to the Repuglican Party - In the past two months, we have been able to save a few coins at the pump. Filled up two days ago just before you started your upwardly mobile pricing - Yesterday, it jumped four cents - Today, another two -

T.R. Elliot - I prefer TROOLS - Trolling Fools.

Posted by: thethirdPaul on November 8, 2006 at 11:28 PM | PERMALINK

Or poopieheads

Posted by: R.L. on November 8, 2006 at 11:29 PM | PERMALINK

Thethirdpaul.......I thought they would wait until today to raise prices,but yesterday morning here in Louisville,Ky. they jumped it .28 from 2.01-2.29.Dropped it .02 today.

Posted by: R.L. on November 8, 2006 at 11:34 PM | PERMALINK

DOW REACHES RECORD HIGH AFTER DEMOCRATIC SWEEP IN BOTH HOUSES! BROKERS LOVE THEIR DEMS.

Posted by: Al's evil twin on November 8, 2006 at 11:35 PM | PERMALINK

"The president wants to work with the new House leaders, said Snow, and was encouraged by several Democrats' calls 'to get rid of partisanship.'"

http://www.cnn.com/2006/POLITICS/11/08/WH.reax/index.html

So all of a sudden he wants to get rid of the partisanship? I tell you, he's a shakin'.

Posted by: Off Topic on November 8, 2006 at 11:37 PM | PERMALINK

Regarding the rise in gas prices:

Gee...
I thought I was the only one who knew it would sink before the election and rise right after...

PS:

They hang war criminals in America... don't they?

Posted by: ROTFLMLiberalAO on November 8, 2006 at 11:41 PM | PERMALINK

Paul3 - I used trools on another thread. I don't think I cited my source tho, so i'll thank you once more for that neologism. I'm spreading it.

Posted by: Global Citizen on November 8, 2006 at 11:42 PM | PERMALINK

Ah, Kevin.

Waaa, you cry baby liberals. Protesting Diebold today? Faulty voting machines, shady voter suppression, robo calls, turning black voters away? Was big bad Karl Rove gonna make you cry with his play to the base strategy? Did Saddam's execution ruin your whole day? Oh no, those big bad supernatural Republicans are out to destroy our whole way of life! Help us, somebody!

Oh, wait, you mean the Democraps won for a change? Huh, maybe the Republicans weren't the criminal organization you cried about the last 5 years after all.

When you win, it doesn't matter if people had their votes suppressed.

Posted by: egbert on November 8, 2006 at 11:44 PM | PERMALINK

Do you have a point there, egbert?

Posted by: Zany Cut-up on November 8, 2006 at 11:47 PM | PERMALINK

More likely they are the criminal enterprise that they have been portrayed to be and the American people said "enough" before it was too late.

I was worried about the merry slide to fascism that we were pursuing, but i'm breathing easier now.

You realize that the biggest Democratic upset in the land was delivered by two Army bases and the votes they delivered don't you?

Posted by: Global Citizen on November 8, 2006 at 11:48 PM | PERMALINK

Here is the first one, Frequency. My how prescient you were!!!

Hey, he's as good a soothsayer as those Bush, Cheney, and neocon dunder heads.

Posted by: ckelly on November 8, 2006 at 11:49 PM | PERMALINK

When the trools do shit like that, I just file it away. I am a mother. I collect evidence.

Posted by: Global Citizen on November 8, 2006 at 11:50 PM | PERMALINK

"Dow Drops on Kazakhstan Potassium Worries"

LOL, this is pretty funny. It almost convinced me that life is worth living, but no ... we still must invade Iran for Christ ...

Hmmm ... I no longer feel the need to use this ridiculous passive aggressive fake name.

USA! USA! USA!

Posted by: InvadeIranForChrist on November 8, 2006 at 11:51 PM | PERMALINK

Keep 'em coming Global, it doesn't matter if Freq is reading or not. We can laugh and laugh and laugh.

Posted by: ckelly on November 8, 2006 at 11:55 PM | PERMALINK

I'm going to dole them out one by one every time I see his screen name pop up, I'll dish up another. Death by a thousand cuts.

Yes. I am a redheaded bitch.

Posted by: Global Citizen on November 8, 2006 at 11:59 PM | PERMALINK

Wall Street was against the Democrats before they were for them.

Posted by: Nemo on November 9, 2006 at 12:01 AM | PERMALINK

When you win, it doesn't matter if people had their votes suppressed.

Now egbert. It's that kind of thinking that doesn't go over well with voters.

And you wonder why you never win elections.

Posted by: ckelly on November 9, 2006 at 12:01 AM | PERMALINK

hey, don't blame the poor shmucks who write market stories or the shmucks who write the heds. nor is it some vast media conspiracy. the dow moves .5 percent, statistically meaningless, or perhaps it doesn't move at all. you're the reporter. you've got to find some cause for this meaninglessness so you call some analyst who hopefully either picks up the phone or returns your call quickly and gives you something quotable. if you're the analyst, what are you going to tell the associate press. "hell if i know why the market moved" hell no. you guess the most obvious.

by the way tuesday the market closed higher reportedly/allegedly on prospects of the democrats taking the house. there are two interpretations of the slide Wednesday a.m.: the "market" was taken aback by the democrats possibly taking the senate, something "it" hadn't factored; or the uncertainty over the outcome of the race in montana created uncertainty among "investors." as noted earlier, the market surged when the rumsfeld announcement was made, which generally coincided with the announcement that tester had taken montana.

Posted by: mudwall jackson on November 9, 2006 at 12:07 AM | PERMALINK

There were reported problems in Missouri. For instance, the Voter ID Law was tossed out by the state supremes in a six-to-Limbaugh (Yes. Limbaugh. The same family) decision. But when the Missouri Secretary of State Robin Carnahan went to cast her ballot, the poll worker demanded photo ID. Check out Stranix' post about it.

So, yeah, there was attempted vote manipulation, but it wasn't us. But this time we were prepared.

Fucking Michael Bloomberg sent a team of attorneys to Missouri to assure that Talent and the Republicans didn't cheat. That is the MO of the MOGOP.

Posted by: Global Citizen on November 9, 2006 at 12:10 AM | PERMALINK

The simple fact is that Wall Street thrives on stability, and hates uncertainty.

At first it looked like it was going to be another knock-down-drag-out electoral fight in Virginia if Allen had decided to act like Al Gore. That, and nobody knew what Bush was going to do until he basically stood up and handed the Democrats the keys to the city.

A solid across-the-board win for Democrats in Washington looks better to Wall Street than the prospect of electoral chaos.

We'll see what happens over the next two years when Democrats start to enact actual policy.

Posted by: hayek on November 9, 2006 at 12:14 AM | PERMALINK

My suggested list of actions for the Democrats to start on.

1) Start reversing all those crappy decisions of his.

2) Start blocking new crappy decisions.

3) Stop the bombing of Iraq. Now that Bush Inc, has destroyed a nation that had NOTHING to do with 911 and spent hundreds of billions to take out ONE GUY, work WITH Iraqis to try to fix things as best as can be (repair jobs). Then get out.

4) Find out where half a trillion plus dollars went exactly then start making them Pay U.S. Back! I'll take mine in a lump sum thank you.

5) Keep looking for OBL.

6) Start listening to scientists when they warn us about global warming and endangered species etc.

7) Investigate (this can run in the background).

8) Send Bush Co. bound to Iraq with notes attached: "Do with as you will".

Any others?

Posted by: Off Topic on November 9, 2006 at 12:21 AM | PERMALINK

That, and nobody knew what Bush was going to do until he basically stood up and handed the Democrats the keys to the city.

True.

This morning, I was basically on the fence as to whether it was going to be Rummy-out, or Martial Law.

Posted by: impeach.remove.convict.punish.justice on November 9, 2006 at 12:28 AM | PERMALINK

I gave up the Martial Law fear and loathing when the Military Times ran those editorials.

Posted by: Global Citizen on November 9, 2006 at 12:30 AM | PERMALINK

Oh and another thing to investigate: The coincidental drop in the price of gas just before election time - kind of like the drop in the price of gas just before the 2004 Presidential election. You know, the one Bush thanked Saudi Prince Bandar for?

Posted by: Off Topic on November 9, 2006 at 12:33 AM | PERMALINK

Click here to help start the democrats off on the right foot. Let's not send William Jefferson back to congress.

Posted by: B on November 9, 2006 at 12:34 AM | PERMALINK

T.R. Elliot - I prefer TROOLS - Trolling Fools

I thought it stood for drooling trolls.

Posted by: Off Topic on November 9, 2006 at 12:36 AM | PERMALINK

You know, the stock market went ballistic during the Clinton Years. Where is the notion that a Democratic government is bad for the stock market coming from?

Posted by: JefferyK on November 9, 2006 at 1:07 AM | PERMALINK

If it makes you feel any better, Drudge of all people is running this headline:

WALL STREET WELCOMES ELECTION RESULTS... (Dow Reaches New High on Election Results @ Breitbart.com)
Posted by: redtape on November 9, 2006 at 1:11 AM | PERMALINK

Josh Marshall linked to a piece this morning saying that the early Dow rally came because investors hoped Dems would bring back fiscal sanity.

Posted by: MNPundit on November 9, 2006 at 2:07 AM | PERMALINK

Legions of economists? You mean all the professional economists who preferred Democrat's policies to Republican's two to one in the last election?

Those legions, Merkin Hawk?

Posted by: mcdruid on November 9, 2006 at 4:19 AM | PERMALINK

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Posted by: LAMI on November 9, 2006 at 5:13 AM | PERMALINK

Others may have noted this, in which case I apologize for repeating it, but note: all other things being equal, the markets love divided government. Divided government can't pass new laws or new taxes. That's good from the markets' point of view.

Of course, if 2010 approaches and the Congress is unable to agree on extending the current tax rates with the result that the old, higher tax rates will go back into effect, you'll see the the markets react very adversely.

Of course, most of you won't really give a hoot about that.

Posted by: DBL on November 9, 2006 at 6:20 AM | PERMALINK

You know, for most of us working folks (or formerly so), our investment portfolios are NOT what govern our every thought and action...I know this is more important for those with huge incomes and savings...but when the bulk of Americans who slog along daily get riled up you can actually make some changes! NOTICE GEORGIE! Can't wait until you're into brush clearing full time.....

Posted by: Dancer on November 9, 2006 at 8:15 AM | PERMALINK

The Dow is not 'the market'. The Dow is 30 blue chip stocks. Period. 30.

These 'records' are utterly spurious. Adjusted for inflation these new 'highs' are actually still lower in real, as opposed to nominal, terms that the 2000 levels.

BFD.

"Of course, the higher stock market may just be due to the irrational exuberance of people who control lots of money, as happened in the nineties. This is also not obviously good news. In this case, a higher stock market will shift wealth to those smart enough to get out, from those stupid enough to get in."
-- Dean Baker -'The Dow is not the home team'

You'll notice that defense and pharma in particular took serious hits though...and for excellent reasons.

Posted by: CFShep on November 9, 2006 at 8:18 AM | PERMALINK

BTW having so much fun having my husband (stronger stomach) report on the RIGHTWING radio talkers spinning themselves silly about how CONSERVATIVE the new electees all are...proving they really WON!!! Must be nearly all the air is sucked out of their bubble!

Posted by: Dancer on November 9, 2006 at 8:18 AM | PERMALINK

Courtesy of Fidelity Investments:

Even excluding the Great Depression, Democrats hold the edge [on economic performance]. Since 1945,the S&P 500 has risen 10.7% on average each year under Democrats and 7.6% under Republicans.

Call your broker.

Posted by: xtalguy on November 9, 2006 at 8:50 AM | PERMALINK

I'm a bit shocked here. I thought Americans were sophisticated investors, for they all now have 401(k) plans instead of company pensions. "Investing 101" says to ignore any media commentary on the markets, for "the market is a product of billions of investment (and other) decisions, not a result of any one factor". Everybody knows that. So.... what are you guys saying about your investing strategies for your retirement?

Maybe the Dems should look into reforming the company-biased approach to retirement in foisting 401(k)'s on the naive and the ignorant. If you folks are this naive, what about the millions without your education?

Posted by: Bob M on November 9, 2006 at 8:52 AM | PERMALINK

Dancer - Yeah, these are the same Democrats who, a week ago, were going to turn the country over to the terrorists if they won. The spinning must make these people dizzier than they usually are.

Posted by: Speed on November 9, 2006 at 9:01 AM | PERMALINK

Joey Giraud,
You're the leaky balloon.

Oh, good one, Chuckles. You stay up all night thinking of that one?

But Joey's wrong, you're not a leaky balloon, you were deflated around midday on Tuesday.

You lost, Chuckles, deal with it.

Posted by: MeLoseBrain? on November 9, 2006 at 9:33 AM | PERMALINK

Of course, most of you won't really give a hoot about that.
Posted by: DBL

Posted by: MeLoseBrain? on November 9, 2006 at 9:57 AM | PERMALINK

For me, one of the more memorable rationales give for a stock market move upward was the euphoria created by the successful landing on the moon back in 1969 by Armstrong and Aldrin.

Posted by: bob on November 9, 2006 at 9:57 AM | PERMALINK

Most likely, a ripple in the market as investors hurried to get their money into companies that aren't like to go under now that their "special relationships" are blown.
The collapse of a crony economy is not a bad thing.

Posted by: Steve Paradis on November 9, 2006 at 10:02 AM | PERMALINK

I have to ask, AH, would those "legions of Ph.D economists" be evaluating this situation in "smoke-filled rooms" in DC the day after the election too?

It's very clear from your posts that your worldview is heavily influenced by B-movies on Spike TV.

Posted by: Ferruge on November 9, 2006 at 10:07 AM | PERMALINK

Of course, most of you won't really give a hoot about that.
Posted by: DBL

Since the rest of my post was eaten up, I'll repost.

DBL must stand for Dishonest Bullshit Liar. You know what I give a hoot about, DBL? The AMT. It eats up all of my "tax break" and then some. Yet your do-nothing, rubber-stamp, bullshit rightard congress didn't see fit to do anything about it. Further evidence that all they care about is the wealthiest of the wealthy. Does that include you, DBL? If not, you're getting screwed, too.

AMT reform is a must before anyone thinks about extending the tax cuts. And then the deficit. Oh, but deficits don't matter, right DBL? Who's going to pay for them? You? Your kids?? Their kids??? My guess is that it will be all of the above.

Also reform capital gains taxes. Why should someone living entirely off of investment income pay a much lower tax rate than wage-earners? If you want to say that "tax discourages investment (a dubious argument, at best)", fine, tie investment income to earned income. For example, for every dollar you earn in taxable wages, you can deduct 50 cents of investment income at a lower tax rate.

Posted by: MeLoseBrain? on November 9, 2006 at 10:11 AM | PERMALINK

Global Citizen,

you are awesome.

That is all.

Posted by: glasnost on November 9, 2006 at 10:12 AM | PERMALINK

On that note, check out this reworking of the first paragraph of an AP article that I caught in my RSS reader (which tracks changes to articles):

http://www.netspace.org/~mielcarz/2006/11/spin-in-action.html

I really don't get why they try so hard to interpret intraday swings in the Dow. Makes no sense at all. I mean, maybe if the fed changes interest rates or something, but beyond that it is really grasping at straws.

Posted by: Dan on November 9, 2006 at 10:15 AM | PERMALINK

The stock market has done what for the last 6 years with the gvt almost completely under Republican control?

Gone sideways is probably the best thing you could say. Superstitions can be adorable sometimes, but anyone who bases his or her investment decisions on Republican control of government probably isn't such a savvy investor.

Posted by: clb72 on November 9, 2006 at 10:32 AM | PERMALINK

Thanks glasnost. I dunno about awesome, but pissed off, fired up, and vocal are all appropriate modifiers.

Posted by: Global Citizen on November 9, 2006 at 11:18 AM | PERMALINK

Hawk, maybe you'd like to link to where those "legions of economists with PhDs" make the case that Dems are bad for the economy. I must've missed it.

I'll tell you a couple of things "legions of economists with PhDs" will agree on, however: Supply-side is bullshit, and the markets have, in fact, done better under Democratic administrations than under Republican ones.

Posted by: lewp on November 9, 2006 at 11:53 AM | PERMALINK

..Dow Drops on Kazakhstan Potassium Worries..

Lol...Kevin Drum? A Borat fan? Too cool.

And for those who haven't seen the movie yet, go. My stomach still hurts from laughing so hard...

Posted by: grape_crush on November 9, 2006 at 11:56 AM | PERMALINK

"supply side is bull shit"

And a tear falls in Chester County, Pa.

And Russia just banned Borat. Too PC for them.

Posted by: thethirdPaul on November 9, 2006 at 12:42 PM | PERMALINK

"Once again, Kevin Drum thinks he knows more about the economy than legions of economists with PhDs. Democrats = Bad for the economy. Witness the gerat economy the republican congress led us into in the 90's.
Posted by: American Hawk "


You see what I'm saying, Kevin? He's just too big an idiot to be on here. He doesn't think that that the pubs still control Congress and will until January. This shitty economy is their fault.

Posted by: Ace Franze on November 9, 2006 at 1:24 PM | PERMALINK

I've often cussed the business headlines specifically because, as you say, they almost always assign a fictitious "cause" to whatever the market movement has been. What, they expect us to believe they do daily Wall Street exit polls or something?

::shaking head::

Posted by: Scorpio on November 9, 2006 at 2:41 PM | PERMALINK

Economists Are Destroying America

Economists, politicians, and executives from both parties have promised American families that free trade policies like NAFTA, CAFTA, and WTO/CHINA would accomplish three things:

Increase wages
Create trade surpluses (for the US)
Reduce illegal immigration

Well, their trade policies have been in effect for about 15 years. Lets review the results:

Declining real wages for 80% of working Americans (while healthcare, education, and childcare costs skyrocket)
A record-high 46 million Americans who dont have health insurance (due in part to declining wages and benefits)
Illegal immigration out of control
Soaring trade deficits, much with countries that use slave and child labor
Personal and national debt both out-of-control
Global environments threatened by lax trade deal enforcement

Economists Keep Advocating Policies That Arent Working

Upon seeing incontrovertible evidence of these negative trade agreement results, economists continue with Pollyannish blather. Some say, Cheer up! GDP is up and the stock markets doing fine. Others say, Be patient. Stay the course. Free trade will raise all ships.

Even those economists who acknowledge problems with trade agreements offer us only half-measuresadjusting exchange rates, improving safety nets, and providing better job retraining. None of these will close the wage gap in Americaand economists know it.

Why Arent American Economists Shouting From Street Corners?

America needs trade deals that support American families and businesses in terms of wage, environmental, and intellectual property abuses. Why arent economists demanding renegotiation of our trade deals? There are three primary reasons:

Economists are too beholden to corporations and special interests that provide them with research grants.
Economists believebut refuse to admitthat sacrificing the American middle class is necessary and appropriate to generate gains in third world economies.
Economists refuse to admit they make mistakes.

Economic Ambulance Chasers

Now more than ever, Americans need their economists to speak truth and stand up to their big business clients. Instead, economists sound like lawyers caught chasing ambulances: they claim theyre doing it for our benefit.

Posted by: John Konop on November 9, 2006 at 7:55 PM | PERMALINK

I think the most meaningful analysis can be found here:

"Dow Reaches New All-Time High on News of Successful transit of Mercury"

It's all in the stars . . .

Posted by: Daniel Kim on November 9, 2006 at 10:08 PM | PERMALINK

I think the most meaningful analysis can be found here:

"Dow Reaches New All-Time High on News of Successful transit of Mercury"

It's all in the stars . . .

Posted by: Daniel Kim on November 9, 2006 at 10:20 PM | PERMALINK

It's all about fear and greed:

FEAR that the dems will get elected and raise taxes....and....

GREED that the dems will get elected and the economy will improve as a result of their policies.

Yin\yang. Blah\blah.

Posted by: bobbyp on November 9, 2006 at 11:55 PM | PERMALINK

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