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 November 10, 2006
Guest: EXIT POLLS, 1994 vs. 2006 ... I’ve just sat through a marathon of post-election press conferences, each explaining how the major structural shift of this election was the behavior of .... Unmarried persons! Midwesterners! Voters with "some college" education! I’m with Kevin; it mostly sounds like much ado about very little. If you scrutinize this year's exit poll data, the most striking pattern is the absence of outliers. On Tuesday, Democrats gained support among men and women; married and unmarried individuals; whites, Asians, and Hispanics; high-school dropouts, high-school diploma holders, and college graduates; rural and suburban voters; Easterners, Westerners, Midwesterners, and (yes) Southerners; liberals, moderates, and conservatives. I don’t see evidence of a singular structural shift. The country as a whole was ready for a change. It's interesting to compare this year’s results to 1994, an election that has rightly been called the “revolt of the angry white man” — more precisely, the revolt of the married conservative angry white man. Exit polls from 1994 show much clearer patterns. That year, the GOP win depended much more on increasing votes among men than women, among conservatives than any other ideological stripe, and among whites and Hispanics than blacks and Asians. Of note: In both 1994 and 2006, independents and Hispanics swung support from one party to the other by hefty margins. The movement of independents was actually greater in 1994, while that of Hispanics was greater in 2006. In any event, the fact of this crossover alone isn’t enough to infer a permanent shift. 1994 House elections exit poll results: (% point change over 1992 House elections) 2006 House elections exit poll results: (% point change over 2004 House elections) Comments
Does anyone know how many Republicans voted? I want to compare that to the 60+ million that voted for Bush last time around. My theory is that more Republicans simply stayed home than Democrats picked up with unmarried, Hispanic independents. Posted by: Jeffery on November 10, 2006 at 2:54 PM | PERMALINKIt's interesting to compare this year’s results to 1994, an election that has rightly been called the “revolt of the angry white man” -- more precisely, the revolt of the married conservative angry white man. Or, even more precisely, the revolt of the not gettin' any.... You know, come to think of it, that would account for a lot of that frustration, irrationality and rage.... Posted by: Stefan on November 10, 2006 at 2:55 PM | PERMALINKI'm married and have sex 4-5 times per week. Posted by: Jeffery on November 10, 2006 at 2:59 PM | PERMALINKLooking at the numbers, the Hispanic vote does seem to stand out, and given demographic trends, seems to be a good omen for the future of the Democratic party. But I'm guessing given what I hear of their views on social issues, the culture wars may not be over yet. The other lesson for me is that we have to continue to get out the youth vote. I'm almost surprised youth turnout went up, given the vote ID requirements. What was the over turnout, anyway? Posted by: K on November 10, 2006 at 3:00 PM | PERMALINKI’m with Kevin; it sounds like much ado about very little. OK, then. Let's move on and leave Charlie here by himself to talk between his multiple personalities. Posted by: asdfg on November 10, 2006 at 3:03 PM | PERMALINKI'm married and have sex 4-5 times per week. He meant with other people. Posted by: asdfg on November 10, 2006 at 3:06 PM | PERMALINKK: I have not been able to find the total turnout number either. The best I have found so far is 56 million voted for Senate and 74 million for contested House races. Posted by: Jeffery on November 10, 2006 at 3:07 PM | PERMALINKKevin - any exit data on union households? Posted by: Friend of Labor on November 10, 2006 at 3:09 PM | PERMALINKWhat bears out is that, along every line that was rxasmined, Americans had simply Had Enough and they voted Democratic. That was a brilliant slogan. And Dr. Dean's 50-State-Strategy was brilliant. Posted by: Global Citizen on November 10, 2006 at 3:10 PM | PERMALINKThe Democrats won DESPITE Dean's strategy -- had the DNC actually targeted Tennesse, Virginia, and Montana instead of wasting money in Alaska, they could have won those with blowouts -- maybe they could have won some other races too. Posted by: Jeffery on November 10, 2006 at 3:14 PM | PERMALINKAh, Kevin. Still cherry-picking the stats, I see. Just wait until Rove gets through with you people in '08! Posted by: egbert on November 10, 2006 at 3:17 PM | PERMALINKBS. The issue was corruption. The exit polls said it. Anecdotal evidence suggests it. Democrats may not have made a good case on the Republican Culture of Corruption. . . but they didn't have to. Hastert (and Ney, and Abramoff, and Frist, and Delay, and Libby, et. al) did it for them. They're criminals. And on that note; anyone else see the new bumper-sticker that's out there? I've seen it on at least two different cars so far this week - it's got a symbol of a fire, and a picture of a Bush. Posted by: impeach.remove.convict.punish.justice on November 10, 2006 at 3:21 PM | PERMALINKJust wait until Rove gets through with you people in '08! Puh-lease. The blossom is so off that turd. Posted by: Global Citizen on November 10, 2006 at 3:23 PM | PERMALINK. . . furthermore - this Hispanic Vote thing, is a covert right-wing talking point. The meme they're trying to push is "Evil Dems want to bribe illegals with Amnesty in return for votes". The truth is - Cheap-Labor Republicans oppose amnesty, because it gives their campaign contributors a supply of people to abuse and exploit. As usual, Republicans want there to be laws, so they can wink-wink-nudge-nudge their buddies, and force others to comply with the law to their competitive disadvantage. Posted by: impeach.remove.convict.punish.justice on November 10, 2006 at 3:25 PM | PERMALINKWhat about age demographics? How does that compare. I think that is probably the most important demographic for long term trends. From some of the exit polls I've looked at in governors races and ballot measures, there seems to be the strongest alignment of young people with Democrats and "progressive" issues. I think Rove has definitely succeeded in creating a new generation of partisans--but Democratic leaning partisans. Posted by: gq on November 10, 2006 at 3:53 PM | PERMALINKgq: CNN's exit poll page says that 18-29 year olds went 60-38 for the Democrats, higher than any other group. That's very good news for the future. I raised three of those young Dems and had a hand in the raising of a few others, Joe Buck. Posted by: Global Citizen on November 10, 2006 at 4:06 PM | PERMALINKGlobal; Robert Gates is taking a job when the odds are stacked against him by every Democrat wanting the U.S. to lose in Iraq. Posted by: Jeffery on November 10, 2006 at 4:17 PM | PERMALINKI guess some American citizens still understand honor and duty to country. Posted by: Jeffery on November 10, 2006 at 4:18 PM | PERMALINKI'm married and have sex 4-5 times per week. Does you wife know about this? Posted by: craigie on November 10, 2006 at 4:19 PM | PERMALINK2006 House elections exit poll results: (% point change over 2004 House elections) % change in vote share, or percent change in votes? Come to think of it, why isn't the comparison to 2002? Also, why does everyone refuse to give actual numbers? max craigie: Yes. max: I think Kevin is trying to compare this election to Newt Gingrich's takeover. Posted by: Jeffery on November 10, 2006 at 4:29 PM | PERMALINKThe culprit in this game of Clue was the churchgoer (in the voting booth with the corruption). Per Amy Sullivan's piece at The New Republic, the devout split almost even between Repubs & Dems this time, unlike 2004. Robert Gates is taking a job when the odds are stacked against him by every Democrat wanting the U.S. to lose in Iraq. This Democrat just wants Gates to go to jail for his role in the Iran-Contra coverup. Or, he could make everything better by coming clean, and implicating those who had something to do with it. Either of those would make me happy. Posted by: impeach.remove.convict.punish.justice on November 10, 2006 at 4:33 PM | PERMALINKolds88: I think more GOP voters simply stayed home. That was the biggest difference. Posted by: Jeffery on November 10, 2006 at 4:36 PM | PERMALINKThe culprit in this game of Clue was the churchgoer (in the voting booth with the corruption). That is the best fucking line of the thread. We may as well stop now, nobody is topping that one. *(bowing deeply)* Posted by: Global Citizen on November 10, 2006 at 4:38 PM | PERMALINKOff Topic: Or, to paraphrase, "white house officials are looking into how they could subvert the constitution and avoid senate oversight of Bolton's appointment". Posted by: jefff on November 10, 2006 at 4:40 PM | PERMALINKI can't stress this enough about Gates and Iran/Contra: Absence of evidence is not absence of guilt. Posted by: Global Citizen on November 10, 2006 at 4:40 PM | PERMALINKHere are my concerns -- if Ms. Larson was referring to conferences like the following re: exit polling -- why can't we see the raw numbers, and even then, we won't know WHY people who voted for Bush in 2004 stayed home this time around: Who Voted and Why? A Roundtable Discussion on the Ethnic, Religious and Social Makeup of Voters in the Elections by Democracy Now (reposted) Exit polls are showing significant shifts in voting patterns among the electorate. Democrats succeeded in winning back some religious voters who had voted solidly Republican in the last few elections. For the first time since 1996, a majority of Florida Latinos voted Democrat. Young voters had a huge increase in turnout with two million more young people voting on Tuesday than in the 2002. And African-American voter turnout made the difference in tight races like Missouri and Virginia. We host a roundtable discussion. Today, we take a look at who voted and why. Voter turnout for Tuesday's election was one of the highest for a mid-term election in recent years. It is estimated that over 40 percent of eligible voters cast ballots in an election that gave Democrats control of both houses of Congress for the first time in twelve years. Democrats also gained six governorships and three-hundred state legislative seats around the country. Exit polls are showing significant shifts in voting patterns among the electorate. Democrats succeeded in winning back some religious voters who had voted solidly Republican in the last few elections. And - for the first time since 1996 - a majority of Florida Latinos voted Democrat. Young voters had a huge increase in turn-out - with two million more young people voting on Tuesday than in the 2002. And African-American voter turn-out made the difference in tight races like Missouri and Virginia. Today, a roundtable discussion on the ethnic, religious and social makeup of voters in the 2006 mid-term elections. * Tom Perriello, Senior Advisor and Co-Founder of the Catholic Alliance for the Common Good. LISTEN ONLINE were those white men in 94 angry because they were conservative or angry because they were married? Posted by: David on November 10, 2006 at 4:46 PM | PERMALINK>I'm married and have sex 4-5 times per week. It must be a gay marriage, because that is heterosexually improbable. Posted by: jim on November 10, 2006 at 4:46 PM | PERMALINKNo, jim, my wife is definitely female -- as I happily confirm each time we have sex. Posted by: Jeffery on November 10, 2006 at 4:58 PM | PERMALINKYou know, come to think of it, that would account for a lot of that frustration, irrationality and rage.... I'm married and have sex 4-5 times per week. So, in Jeffery's case, it was his WIFE who voted Democrat. . . (btw, Jeffery; that much regular meth use is going to take a toll on your health. I suggest you cut back). Posted by: impeach.remove.convict.punish.justice on November 10, 2006 at 4:59 PM | PERMALINK>>I'm married and have sex 4-5 times per week. Yeah, well, my wife and I did that for the first 6 months of our marriage, too. The other night we had sex for the first time in 6 months. This lack of Bush forced me to vote for Bush...or something like that. Posted by: jim on November 10, 2006 at 5:05 PM | PERMALINKSpeaking of sex, I wonder if Santorum enjoyed "donkey on Republican" Posted by: trueblue on November 10, 2006 at 5:11 PM | PERMALINKPeople were fucking fed fucking up with the fucking asshold repukeliscum. Simple as that. Posted by: POed Lib on November 10, 2006 at 5:14 PM | PERMALINKSince when is this the "how big is your dick and how often do you come?" board? Can we stick to calling each other names and other such healthy topics, please, and get off of sex? Please?? My fingers are sticking to the keyboard... Posted by: POed Lib on November 10, 2006 at 5:16 PM | PERMALINKTo me, the midterm election results prove most Americans are honest, decent people. Most hard right-wingers are not. Posted by: The Conservative Deflator on November 10, 2006 at 5:18 PM | PERMALINKThe other important point to make about the Exit Polls: In 2004, nationally, exit polls differed from results, in the Republicans' favor - a big red flag that cheating is going on. We were told, by FoxNews, that there was no cheating, that the exit polls are somehow no longer relevant. 9/11 changed everything? In 2006, the exit polls were spot-on again. Except in two of the races, Montana and Virginia, where, surprise surprise, they were very very close. Well - they didn't realize how hard the wind was blowing, even after they spit into it. Posted by: impeach.remove.convict.punish.justice on November 10, 2006 at 5:29 PM | PERMALINKOT Who was just elected that hag a song that was a hit maybe in the 70's. Thanks Posted by: Thomas2.0 on November 10, 2006 at 5:37 PM | PERMALINKolds88: The culprit in this game of Clue was the churchgoer (in the voting booth with the corruption). I have to agree: best line of the thread. Thanks Olds88! =) Notwithstanding the Democratic wins, the exit polls show that a disturbingly high percentage of voters are still @ssholes. Posted by: Augustus on November 10, 2006 at 5:40 PM | PERMALINKAnyone out there know of any good carpal remedies for Jeffery? All of you still talking about Tuesday are sooooo yesterday. Why Tim Russert has moved on to only have up to date, relevant guests on his program this Sunday - Joe L and the Straight Talk Express himself. Tim stays ahead of the curve. Posted by: thethirdPaul on November 10, 2006 at 6:11 PM | PERMALINKThe major difference between 94 and 06 was that the Brady Bill was passed in 93 and not 05. Posted by: thethirdPaul on November 10, 2006 at 6:21 PM | PERMALINKI wonder if the voting patterns in this election are comparable to those of the 1992 presidential election, when there was widespread dissatisfaction with George H.W. Bush that (if I recall correctly) translated into a relatively modest shift towards voting Democratic across all demographic groups that was sufficient to elect Clinton. I certainly have not been happier about the outcome of any election since 1992. Since 2000, there has been little demographic realignment. What happens is that overall public opinion toward Republicans and Democrats varies, and almost all demographic groups vary with it. Posted by: Steve Sailer on November 10, 2006 at 6:30 PM | PERMALINKThomas2.0, Don't know, but I do believe Jim's Big Ego's hit song fits most of the trools here as well as the leader of the Pubs. Posted by: thethirdPaul on November 10, 2006 at 6:37 PM | PERMALINKI am SO sick of hearing about how unreliable exit polls are. They are statistically and historically the most reliable polls there are. They were skewed in 2004 because of election fraud. The MSM has picked up that meme, and I keep seeing it even on liberal blogs. Repeat after me: EXIT POLLS ARE THE MOST RELIABLE POLLS. If they're wildly off, don't blame the polls, blame the election. Posted by: Brian Link on November 10, 2006 at 8:02 PM | PERMALINKJeffrey, how does "losing in Iraq" look qualitatively different than the way it looks now?? Be specific. 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