The NOMINATE chart is missing an important piece: the ideological indices of the successful challengers. Perhaps that's more speculative since they haven't the same voting record to tabulate, but can't it be projected from campaign platforms?

The media managed to lie about congress enough to get the Democrats a victory. Doesn't mean the media is going to be able to help you get baby-killing, grave-robbing policies passed. The American people won't tolerate the taxman cackling in glee every time a grandfather dies, or babies being ripped from the womb and having their brains sucked out with a vacuum.

The Democrat party is disintegrating. 2006 merely delayed the inevitable.

The only thing that surprises me about this is that DeLay and Weldon weren't scored all the way to the right.

No centrist Republicans, Kevin? Only a liberal who is incapable of nuance would say that.

And the reason that the most conservative Republicans survived is that they represent what the public wants. It is only the fake Republicans that were defeated.

Was it a great ideological reshuffling, like 1994?

I'm surprised you wrote that. I don't think 1994 was a great ideological shift (at least not at first). It's definitely what ended up happening, because the people elected moved farther to the right and then they had momentum on their side. But these things don't tend to happen in "great" "shifts" anyway.

It's a painful drip. And we are pretty much a nation of centrists.

The Contract for America wasn't some looney church take over of government. It was a plan. And seemed less corrupt.

The idiot Republicans (the looney end especially) took things too far. And that the electorate has said shifted to the side that is more moderate again, has a plan and seems to want to offer economic stability.

Kevin Drum,
I just want to say you've had some of the most rational post-election analysis from either side of the blogosphere, and I really appreciate it.

The american people are sick of cradle-robbing Publicans. That is the message of the election, Bulgarian Pigeon.

This is just one piece of raw data to noodle over, but I think it supports the notion that this election represented a broad-based revulsion against the war and the Republican Party, not any kind of serious ideological realignment.

Huh?

Every last seat that was lost was on the RIGHT side of the scale. Unless the Democrats who beat them were well to the right themselves -- very unlikely -- then there WAS a serious ideological shift to the left.

So what happened in the midterm elections?

Hearing hoof-beats?

Think horses, not zebras.

The electorate rose up against hate-spewing, racist, homophobic, child-enslaving, elderly-robbing, polluting, gas-guzzling, religious freaks, dishonest war-mongering Republican filth. It was a return to civility and progressive good sense.

tea-leaves and entrails.

Looking through the results, what jumps out at you is a very broad-based movement toward the Democrats. It wasn't a realigning election in the sense of a particular region or demographic group suddenly changing its partisan stripes. Instead, the Democrats just beat the Republicans pretty badly all over the lot.

Kevin

The operative word in your last sentence is "persuading." Not "compelling" as was the case with the Bush Administration. Dems must recognize that the US is far more conservatively tilted than you, or I. Much as I respond personally to Howard Dean, it may well have been the more pragmatic Rahm Emmanuel who turned the tide.

Noting that only the most conservative Republican incumbents retained their seats, which may have swung the Republican caucus slightly more right, assumes that they watched the election and learned absolutely nothing.

What the graph really seems to show is that a "broad based" revulsion against Republicans pretty much is equivalent to an ideological shift to the left. The only data that's missing is the presumed ideological composition of the Dems who replaced them. But it's pretty fair to say that they would be distinctly to the left of each of the people they defeated, and probably even to the left of the graph.

In general, I don't know where Kevin is going with all this "broad based revulsion" stuff. The ideology of Republicans is surely part of what was being rejected -- or at minimum we have no reason to believe otherwise.

NOMINATE scores are only compiled for actual members of Congress since it uses Roll Call Votes (all of them). To get challengers in there would require an overhaul in the methodology.

Matt, I realize that. I was not faulting NOMINATE, and don't know how one would do a fair evaluation of the ideology of newcomers to the Congress.

So long as all Right-Thinking Republicans realize that the only path to victory is through purity, and they take heart from the fact that not a one of the Truly Pure lost their seats, then all will be well.

This is fascinating. The pattern here based on voting records resembles work on authoritarian personalities done by Bob Altemeyer in the 1990’s (something I am studying these days). Altemeyer surveyed American state legislators by giving them his Right Wing Authoritarian Questionnaire and it shows similar results where Republicans are tightly grouped at one end and Democrats are more spread out over a greater range. Looks like caucus discipline to me. This contrasts with Poole’s earlier work that showed some party overlap.

If there is congruence between these studies it means that we are not just looking at an ideology that can be taken on and off at will but at personality traits and “habits of mind” that have interesting ramifications for what we would predict the particular party in power would do.

That is probably the one big disappointment about using NOMINATE. It's too bad that no one has tried to spatially score congressional districts somehow. Of course, it would not be satisfying to everyone since you'd have to stick with distribution of partisan affiliations or start picking issues to divide the electorate, which would become a real mess. Academics would spend more time picking at it than trying to come to a consensus to improve it.

Is it true that the origin (0 mark) on the graph separates all Democrats from all Republicans?

That certainly wouldn't have been true before, say, about 1980. There would have been fiscally conservative, socially liberal types from the Republicans over there on the left, or at least in the middle. There would have been Democrats that were conservatives in social matters and in foreign policy on the right (mostly, but not entirely, from the south). This is really a stunning change over the last 1/4 to 1/3 century if you look at it that way. The parties are finally acquiring some, if not total, idealogical consistency.

Is it true that the origin (0 mark) on the graph separates all Democrats from all Republicans?

I was wondering about that very point. It seemed from the context, and the overall numbers in the graph that virtually every Democrat, if not every Democrat, must have been to the left, to balance out the Republicans who are, by Kevin's statement, all to the right.

David in NY,
Look into Poole’s work and you will find that they have tried to account for party changes over time. I think that they split Democrats into Northern and Southern and left Republicans as a unified entity. They found unity of overall positions did not change and that the overlap, although greater in the past, did not amount to much.

This pattern, I think, is best explained by the nature of authoritarian thinking and not a left/right dichotomy.

Check out Polarized America, Keith's new book, written with Nolan McCarty (first listed author) and Howard Rosenthal. They show that moderates are vanishing from the parties (especially the Republicans) and link it to changes in wealth and numbers of noncitizens. It is a neat book that is clearly written.

it supports the notion that this election represented a broad-based revulsion against the war and the Republican Party [..] That's too bad, but I guess I'll take what I can get

A few points difference in progressive taxation rates, or mildly more commitment to fiscal discipline, or nods to technocratic competence mean VERY LITTLE, compared to HUNDREDS of THOUSANDS of dead, innocent Iraqis.

But then, the Dems (blogs and media included) all supported the war too, so I guess whining about competence is about all they can do without the hypocrisy becoming too obvious.

Just a silly comment, but is the republican distribution really more skew (in the stats sense) than the dems'? The means, medians and skewnesses(sp?) would be more nice data to noodle over.

To me, it looks like the dems are more skewed, while the repub's are more normally distributed, but with a titgher distribution and shifted (relatively) further right. all of which is pretty worthless, but fun.

If there were "no centrist Republicans" left, then how can one surmise that an even distribution of removed Republicans amounts to evidence AGAINST there being an ideological realignment? Seems to me the Republican Party has collectively gotten too right wing (if not necessarily conservative) for the country's and the GOP's own good, and a broad chunk of independent voters decided on a collective punishment. I'll tell you this . . . . I hold Jim Leach just as responsible as, say, Barbara Cubin, for the fiasco that has happened. And back in my ticket-splitting days I once voted for the guy.

I'm surprised that they found no centrist Republicans. Our local (former, as of January) congressman, Sherwood Boehlert, seemed as moderate as they come...

That scares me that there are 20 more conservative Republicans than the three who I thought were the worst - and lost their seats...

But is the argument that the US will be a better country under one party Democratic rule? Is Mass. and DC the model that we can expect from the rest of the country in the near future?

What the numbers show is that the Democrats are on their way to become the dominate political party. In January 2009, Hillary Clinton will probably be sworn in front of more than 60 Democratic senators along with Speak Pelosi. Of course all of the calls for checks and balances and divided government is good will be forgotten by that time.

The Republicans are probably destine to irrelevence but is the two party system in the US also fated to fade away. The worst scenerio would be the District of Columbia scenerio where the Democrats control everythng but the Republicans hang around as a foil for the Democrats to campaign against.

The Republicans are probably destine to irrelevence but is the two party system in the US also fated to fade away.

I am sure that this is not the case. Just as the Repugs dreams of longterm dominance was sheer fantasy, so would any thoughts of a rising Democratic hegemon. The current electorate is just too fickle.

I hope that we are in for a period of closely contested campaigns where no party feels any entitlements. A worthwhile and on-going competition of ideals is what this nation really needs

There is no one answer.

Just a quick question. Is American Hawk a parody troll? Because he says the same things all the time. I've kinda stopped reading his comments, even though I usually like coming here to see troll smack-downs. But he's really tiresome. Is it just me?

FOR THE REGRESSIVE-DEMOCRATS TO PONDER:

Such democracies have ever been spectacles of turbulence and contention; have ever been found incompatible with personal security or the rights of property; and have in general been as short in their lives as they have been violent in their deaths.

--James Madison

IS THIS NOT A PERFECT RATIONALE FOR WHY, WHENEVER THE DEMOCRATS HAVE POWER, 1964-1980 USA, THEN AND STILL TODAY IN URBAN AMERICA, TAXES ABOUND, RENDERING PROPERTY RIGHTS VOID (RENT CONTROL, TOO), THERE IS CIVIL IMPLOSION: CRIME, RIOTING, VIOLENCE IN ALL IT'S FORMS. PEOPLE POWER MEANS THE RULE OF IGNORANT, INTEMPERATE, DEBAUCHED, VICIOUS, DECEITFUL, BESTIAL MOB; A RULE THAT ENDS IN IT'S OWN DESTRUCTION. DON'T WORRY ABOUT ME DEAR READERS; I'VE GOT MY EXIT STRATEGY.

TOH

I think it supports the notion that this election represented a broad-based revulsion against the war and the Republican Party, not any kind of serious ideological realignment.

I don't know NOMINATE well enough to be completely sure, but it appears to me that this kind of data summary doesn't say anything at all about ideology. It's about how two groups of people vote with each other over time, and whether there's any overlap between them. In other words, you could take the Democratic and Republican parties, swap around their ideologies arbitrarily, piecewise, and if they voted in the same ways with respect to their fellow party members, you'd get the same picture.

"broad based revulsion of....the Republican Party"

Is Political Animal that widely read? How did so many American voters know about Al, American Hawk, Norman, Jay, Inigo Montoya, ex-Liberal, Chuck, Claire/Alice, Bill and their ilk?

Way to analyze America - We have felt the same way for sometime ourselves.

TOH bloviated...DON'T WORRY ABOUT ME DEAR READERS; I'VE GOT MY EXIT STRATEGY

You can borrow my Smith & Wesson.

The Objective Historian: DON'T WORRY ABOUT ME DEAR READERS; I'VE GOT MY EXIT STRATEGY.

Just so you know, nobody worries about you.

I'VE GOT MY EXIT STRATEGY.

So exit already.

Don't let the door hit you on the way out.

"Was it a great ideological reshuffling, like 1994?" No, it was a ideological reshuffling, like 2006, towards the center. Maybe Americans wants more transparency, accountability and equality from government. Perhaps folks are tired of sleazy PR strategies to the problems with Iraq, terriorism, foreign policy,and the economy.

And maybe, just maybe many Americans believe the best solution to Iraq is one that saves the most American soldiers. The window of success has slammed shut.

CKelly: You'll need it to shoot at the devauched and parasitic cretins for whom you advocate when the come for you and yours; don't worry if your short on assets; if you don't have money, these folks will take it in ass.

SecularAnimist: Duh.

I'll be on the undisclosed beach making Thomas Crowne look like a piker if you Regressive-Democrat hiptser-doofus-reprobate-parasite-goofs ever do manage to take this country down even worse than you did in 64-80.

Ta.

TOH

Frankly0: No pumpkin; the cash machine is still payin' out. I'll leave when it stops. That's when you R-Ds ever try to put taxes back to 70% and surrender to the Iranians, Panamanians, USSR again, i.e., before the advent of The Man (Reagan).

TOH

http://www.stat.columbia.edu/~cook/movabletype/mlm/
for more wonkery, on, among other things, seats v. votes gained.

if you Regressive-Democrat ...-goofs manage to take this country down even worse than you did in 64-80
Must have missed that back then. Oh right, the civil rights movement was born during that time is that what you're grousing about? I guess you thought all that peace and prosperity during those 8 Clinton years were really awful too huh?

Ta, surfing bum. Oops, I meant cabana boy.

"I'VE GOT MY EXIT STRATEGY"

With your head up your ass, an exit strategy is ALL you have...

After all, what I really wanted to see this year was some evidence that the American public will put up with only just so much in the way of corruption, extremism, and almost insane levels of incompetence before it revolts, and that's what we got.

So you're happy with the idea of Murtha as House Majority Leader?

"I don't know NOMINATE well enough to be completely sure, but it appears to me that this kind of data summary doesn't say anything at all about ideology. It's about how two groups of people vote with each other over time, and whether there's any overlap between them."

Here's an ultra-nutshell take on spatial models of ideology: what the unfolding procedures (like NOMINATE, ALSCAL, Chaoon-Hinich, whatever) do in various ways is present a low-dimensional representation of some sort of correlation or covariance matric between all the individual choices (in this case, roll-call votes) the actors made.

What the unfolding shows is how the data are related. It is up to the researcher to decide if the recovered dimensions have any substantive meaning, and if so, what? Historically, techinques like NOMINATE have consistently produced plausible liberal-conservative orderings in Congress, parties, voter perception of candidates and parties, interest group activity, and in other areas, all congruent with theoretical and empirical results in the economics literature.

If the orderings recovered aren't liberal-conservative and still come out so consistently across settings and actors, what's being recovered?

"I think it supports the notion that this election represented a broad-based revulsion against the war and the Republican Party, not any kind of serious ideological realignment."

It seems to me that a broad-based revulsion against the war and the Republican Party IS a serious ideological realignment. Those Republicans scoring in the +.5 to +1 range of the distribution were replaced by 0 to -1 Democrats.

This chart doesn't provide the information needed to answer the next question--where do the folks that won on Nov 7 fall on this metric? It would be interesting to know whether those .5 to .1 Republicans were replaced by 0 to -.5 Democrats or by -.5 to -1 Democrats.

Bellumregio: "If there is congruence between these studies it means that we are not just looking at an ideology that can be taken on and off at will but at personality traits and “habits of mind”

I love Altemeyer's work on the Authoritarian personality. You make an interesting point--that personality may drive the ideology.

Here's a passage from Altemeyer's "The Authoritarian Specter", published in 1996, that is unnerving given the thuggery leadership of the past six years: "We have no scientific evidence that authoritarian lawmakers are self-righteous, show double standards in criminal sentencing situations, use lots of electric shock in bogus learning experiments, are likely to join "posses," have trouble making correct inferences from evidence, are are likely to make the fundamental attribution error when they like the message, are blowhards when it comes to self-understanding, tend to be religious fundamentalists, and so on.

"To be sure, High legislators have confirmed every finding thrown their way, usually more strongly than anyone ever did before. But I doubt that all the other findings about High RWAs would apply to authoritarian lawmakers. These people are just too sophisticated, I would bet, to think that society is about to be destroyed or that punishment will solve all our social problems..."

So, fast forward to 2006, we still don't have scientific evidence, but the anecdotal evidence is piling up that "corruption, extremism, and almost insane levels of incompetence " are also associated with those High RWA lawmakers. And we can rule out "sophistication"!

In 1988 Michael Dukakis campaigned for President on a "competence" slogan. It didn't work. Despite 8 years of Ronald Reagan, I think voters assumed competence was a 'given' -- anybody nominated would bring that much to the White House.

Six years of George W. Bush have finally put the lie to that point. Competence doesn't win elections, but incompetence can lose them.

PTate in MN,
Rule out sophistication sure enough.

I think that Altemeyer would agree that much of what we see in politics is about a particular relationship to authority, fear, and aggression. His colleague’s findings that Russian authoritarians were identical to North American authoritarians in every way but ideology is astounding. The word “conservative” is just not appropriate for people who argue for a unitary executive and deem it necessary to suspend habeas corpus and torture prisoners. “Conservative” just misses their tendency to use violence and subterfuge to maintain an orthodoxy.

When I say “habit of mind” I am using George Orwell’s phrase from his essay “Notes on Nationalism”. I think that Orwell is describing what Altemeyer’s research uncovered. Orwell thought this authoritarian habit of mind could embrace any in-group (“Jewry, Islam, Christendom, the Proletariat and the White Race”). Reading Altemeyer’s description of High RWAs propensity to compartmentalize is very similar to Orwell’s doublethink and the nationalist’s tendency to be indifferent to reality.

It may be that the best way to understand 20th century politics and our own is through the lens of authoritarianism and its stuggle against liberal democratic pluralism and modernization.

This ranking is very odd. Wouldn't Lieberman show up to the right of the 0? What about Lincoln Chafee? And aren't Sanctorum and Pombo, both losers, two of the most conservative guys in Congress? Pombo wanted to sell off the National Parks, drill off the coast of California and and eliminate the Endagered Species Act. Who's more conservative than that?

Fix the damn voting system.......

"2006 is the third election in a row shadowed by questions about the integrity of voting machines, something most Americans never dreamed could happen. Together we can make the 2006 election the tipping point--the moment when demand for an auditable, verifiable voting system forced Congress to act.

We must act now, while the nation's attention is focused on this issue.

Urge your Senator to support legislation for paper trails and random audits for ALL electronic ballots."

Sign the petition........
here

Not that any proof was required, but these few days after the Great Republican Spanking (c) have served to highlight exactly how remarkably unhinged the ChickenHawk and Al and Chucky really are. I mean, how divorced from reality do you need to be to claim that the repugs actually won? That "...conservative Republicans survived [because] they represent what the public wants..."? Once the investigations begin into the crimes of this administration, look for the residency at local insane asylums to shoot up.

As much as I appreciated the graphic, I think the analysis is, unfortunately, lacking because it ignores whether the district is even competitive. Matt aludes to this in his post above.

We know that a member can be more extreme in a safely Gerrymandered district than in a more closely defined district. So, it may be virtually impossible for a Democrat to replace a Republican on the far right of the spectrum when they're in a safe district.

An alternative analysis that occurs to me would be a similar graph comparing the district's "partisan index" to the outcome of the election.

No pumpkin; the cash machine is still payin' out. I'll leave when it stops. That's when you R-Ds ever try to put taxes back to 70%...

If raising taxes to 70% is what it takes to put thieves like The Objective Historian out of business, I'm all for it...

I was thinking similarly, storwino.

And couldn't the analysis be skewed by members who lost due to some connection with corruption or because of personal gaffes and not as a result of their legislative record?

Al and American Hawk are representative of the reason why Republicans lost so bad - they simply make their own reality instead of working in the reality that is. Thankfully, this will allow us to take the presidency in 08, as Bush fatigue will be even more promnounced by then. Personally, I hope that the congress will be closer to a 50-50 split than a solid Democratic majority, because I thin the country works better when one party doesn't dominate the government (I despise one-party government of all forms, even Democratic).

"The electorate rose up against hate-spewing, racist, homophobic, child-enslaving, elderly-robbing, polluting, gas-guzzling, religious freaks, dishonest war-mongering Republican filth. It was a return to civility and progressive good sense."
__________________

Is this supposed to be an example of civility?

This chart and explanation leaves out that several democrats had to run a conservatives to win in the republican areas. So there is a shift to the right in the democrats. So, we have both parties moving right - imagine that. It will be interesting to see if these new conservative dems will vote like they ran to their constituients, or will abandon them and vote liberal with Pelosi. A catch 22 here.

It looks to me that the net effect was to push the GOP still in Congress even further to the right. Even if the freshman Dems. are smoothly distributed across the party's positions, it would be to our advantage to concentrate on centrist legislation while pushing hard on accountability and oversight. That would force the GOP to reveal their extremism AND defend corruption and incompetance. Two years of extremist obstructionism and 2008 is in the bag for the Dems.

Is this supposed to be an example of civility?

Using the Republican family values, yes.

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Any data model that counts only three moderate Republicans in the House is useless. There were that many from one small state -- CT. Castle, Kolbe, Boehlert, Sweeney, Leach, etc etc. If you can't get that basic fact right, all conclusions based on the model are, by necessity, faulty.

If I remember correctly there was supposed to be one DINO in the midst of that GOP mob on the right.

Nope, I looked it up and Rodney Alexander of Louisiana switched from Democratic to Republican in 2004.

I think Kevin overstates his case - all conservatives lost and were replaced by more liberal members although technically we can't prove that until we have a few hundred votes in. (However, for the past two years all Democrats are not as conservative as any Republican in Congress.) All the conservatives who lost just happened to be Republican. The only qualifier on that is those most conservative on a 20 point scale did not lose but then neither did any left of center members lose.

"With that out of the way, now we can spend the next couple of years persuading the public to move a few steps to the left."

Good luck with that. Some day you will realize that America is far more conservative than you will admit.

mike is right. America is a conservative country. We believe in the Bible and the Ten Commandments. That's why I never bear false witness.

Two quick points:

1. I wonder where Senator-elect Webb will fit in this algorithm a year from now? He's known to have a Virginia CHL & an "A" rating from the NRA. When the bold, new Democrat leadership of Kennedy/Byrd/Pelosi/Murtha etc. decides it's time to enact some more "gun control", where's Webb going to be on that vote? And that's just one example, from one Senator. Tester is similar to Webb culturally I suspect. The guy who replaced DeWine in Ohio is an economic nationalist. Several House races I paid attention to were won by culturally conservative Democrats who aren't all that fond of the results of NAFTA and who don't share Carolyn McCarthy and the DNC's hoplophobia.

2.Drum's comments and the few interesting ones that follow all pretty much highlight how useless these 1-dimensional analyses are when all is said and done. A two-dimensional analysis is harder to do and doesn't lend itself to neat, tidy graphics that are easy to insert into newsletters, but could be more useful. Choose the axes you like: domestic spending vs. foreign policy, for example, and then analyze the votes that way. But spare us this "football field" jazz with the 50-yard line stuck wherever it must be to put all the Democrats on the left side. See, not all us Democrats agree with screaming Howard Dean, "I got mine, tax you" Nancy Pelosi, Klansman Byrd, Driving-school teacher Kennedy, etc. and the left takes our votes for granted at their peril. "Reagan Democrat" voters still exist, from Pennsylvania all the way to San Francisco.

I love the comment about the peace and prosperity of the 8 years of Clinton. Hmmm...economic/internet bubble burst and $5 TRILLION of wealth was lost in less than a year. And all the time the terroists were bombing and plotting. Real nice peace and prosperity record!!!

Bush inherited a recession, corporate scandals and terrosist attacks from that period.

The problem with your use of NOMINATE is that you're using only first-dimension scores, which are largely the economic dimension to voting. This exaggerates the conservatism of the GOP caucus (and explains why hardcore social conservatives who are economic big spenders like DeLay and Weldon aren't all the way to the right). See if you can get Dr. Poole's conglomerated results with his PERF program. That gives a better result for your application.

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