Editore"s Note
Tilting at Windmills

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November 13, 2006
By: Kevin Drum

HILLARY AND IOWA....Commenting on the decision by Iowa Governor Tom Vilsack to seek the Democratic presidential nomination, John Podhoretz says:

This decision is a huge gift to the campaign of Hillary Clinton. With Vilsack in the race, all other Democratic candidates can declare the Iowa caucuses his territory and bail out of there. The quirky state won't play a big role, and that only benefits the 800 lb. Gorilla.

Podhoretz is, of course, obsessed by Hillary Clinton, but that doesn't necessarily make him wrong about this. In fact, it seems like a sharp observation.

Question for the audience: is Iowa a problem for Hillary in the first place? Does she benefit by being allowed to ignore it? Can she now engage in an orgy of long-suppressed corn bashing that's been eating away at her ever since she choked on a popcorn kernel as a small girl?

Beats me. But it's worth noting that Iowa Senator Tom Harkin took Iowa out of play in 1992, and we all know who went on to win the nomination and the presidency that year. Hmmm.....

Kevin Drum 6:04 PM Permalink | Trackbacks | Comments (109)
 
Comments

First! Consider me jubilant. Now I can finally release my "orgy of long-suppressed corn bashing" and still hope to get a job with Ms. Clinton! Score!

Posted by: Steve W. on November 13, 2006 at 6:07 PM | PERMALINK

Baby killing! Grave robbing!


Hawk, you've got the day off.

Posted by: BongCrosby on November 13, 2006 at 6:09 PM | PERMALINK

First, Murtha as Majority Leader in the House, and now Hillary as the nominee -- you Dems sure don't like the taste of victory much, do you?

Posted by: Jeffery on November 13, 2006 at 6:11 PM | PERMALINK

In a poll this June, Edwards, Clinton, and Kerry all beat Vilsack among likely caucus participants. And Edwards looks to be in much better shape in other states right now than any of the others.

Posted by: Ashish George on November 13, 2006 at 6:13 PM | PERMALINK

Thanks, Bong -- you've covered it.

Can Obama become the anti-Hillary? Or will Edwards split that vote? Is Obama only running for VP? Will the media fellate McCain to the WH?

Posted by: Al's Mommy on November 13, 2006 at 6:14 PM | PERMALINK

MDS (regarding the mysterious "X" thread):

An error occurred:

Can't call method "blog_id" without a package or object reference at /home/apache/htdocs/mt/lib/MT/App/Comments.pm line 293.

Your post and mine were deleted:

Great point, Kev.

Posted by: MDS on November 13, 2006 at 5:23 PM | PERMALINK

Agreed - best thread you've ever written, Kevin.

Posted by: Jeffery on November 13, 2006 at 5:24 PM | PERMALINK

Posted by: Jeffery on November 13, 2006 at 6:15 PM | PERMALINK

I think Podhoretz is wrong, here. Sure, everyone but Hillary could afford to leave it alone: its, of course, a must-win for Vilsack, but its also critical for Hillary. If Hillary doesn't fight for Iowa, her not doing so becomes news (particularly if any other non-Vilsack candidate does make a serious effort there), and she can't lose to anyone but Vilsack in Iowa. She doesn't need to win, but she (and only she) needs a strong second in Iowa, because she is such the pre-ordained front-runner, to avoid losing momentum.

Of course, her worst-case scenario is if someone else fights hard in Iowa and beats Vilsack; but a third-place finish in Iowa is no good for her in any case.

But it's worth noting that Iowa Senator Tom Harkin took Iowa out of play in 1992, and we all know who went on to win the nomination and the presidency that year.

1992 was very different. There was no Hillary-equivalent running, no far-and-away front-runner predicted years out that has to show strong everywhere not to be failing to meet expectations.

Hillary has the curse of being the presumptive nominee, where any sign of weakness is magnified. Of course, the great big stacks of money she'll have compared to most other candidates should be some consolation, but if she stumbles anywhere she'll fall hard and fast.

Posted by: cmdicely on November 13, 2006 at 6:16 PM | PERMALINK

I don't see this helping Hillary much. I still think she'll have to win Nevada and New Hampshire to avoid fizzling out entirely. And I don't see Hillary having any natural advantage in those states (or subsequent states) over, say, John Edwards or Barack Obama. I think her front-runner status is vastly overrated.

Posted by: A.L. on November 13, 2006 at 6:16 PM | PERMALINK

It really doesn't matter what loser the democrats decide to run in 08. Their win in the 06 midterms guarantees their defeat in 08.

Our president is a shrewd tactician, and he will ensure that successes are seen as Republican, and mistakes are seen as bipartisan.

Posted by: Al on November 13, 2006 at 6:19 PM | PERMALINK

These wingers ought to put it back in their pants. The hard-on they're showing for Hillary in '08 is hardly respectable behavior.

No one expects Vilsack to go on and get the nomination, so I think the real battle in Iowa may be between Edwards and Clinton. I don't think it helps Hillary if she pulls out. She looks real dumb if she cedes Iowa to Vilsack and Edwards wins or is a strong second.

Posted by: JJF on November 13, 2006 at 6:20 PM | PERMALINK

You can end the newest American political dynasty aborning. You can make certain that William Jefferson Clinton does not get to move back into the White House and serve as historys first First Gent. Eight years after his ignominious departure from 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue, amid reports that the White House had been trashed by outgoing staffers and amid general disgust at the extravagant pardons Clinton had been handing out like so many business cards, the man who turned the White House into a fee-for-service hotel and toyed with insecure young women and tortured widows and God knows who else in the nooks and crannies of the West Wing will continue to have to do his wretched business elsewhere.

Podhoretz, Can She Be Stopped?

Did Al write a book?

Posted by: Patrick on November 13, 2006 at 6:24 PM | PERMALINK

Podhoretz like usual is completely wrong. This hurts Hillary. Money wins Iowa. Hillary has the money. Now no one need compete in Iowa taking away Hillary's easy shot at a first victory.

Posted by: Rob on November 13, 2006 at 6:24 PM | PERMALINK

Beats me. But it's worth noting that Iowa Senator Tom Harkin took Iowa out of play in 1992, and we all know who went on to win the nomination and the presidency that year. Hmmm.....

Is this really a fair analogy? I thought Bill Clinton's '92 campaign started out sadly underfunded compared to some of his competitors. Am I remembering that wrong?

Posted by: shortstop on November 13, 2006 at 6:28 PM | PERMALINK

Would President Hillary have veto power over the First Hubby's staff and intern selections?

Posted by: CJColucci on November 13, 2006 at 6:41 PM | PERMALINK

Wow - US troops in Iraq still dying at the same rate as last month. Those guerrillas must be still trying to influence the elections!

Posted by: Speed on November 13, 2006 at 6:43 PM | PERMALINK

Hoping that Gore will not run though. once Al gets on campaign trail again, he looks boring again. Al is doing great, don't run Al.

As for Hillary, she is waiting for all dead fishes to jump into the pond then declare. Edwards and Kerry are next. Forget about Biden. Obama won't be able to raise 300-500mils. Only Kerry and Hillary can raise that sum. Richardson has his own bimbo problems so he is out.

Posted by: bob on November 13, 2006 at 6:44 PM | PERMALINK

shortstop: Am I remembering that wrong?

Maybe you're thinking this: Bill only made "one appearance in the state before the 1992 Iowa Democratic Caucuses." Cite.

And Bill "raised more funds than any of the other Democratic challengers prior to the 1992 Iowa caucuses. Cite.

Posted by: Apollo 13 on November 13, 2006 at 6:50 PM | PERMALINK

You know, this continuing fretting about Hillary Clinton over the last six years -- and the fretting about the "Kennedy Dynasty" twenty or thirty years ago -- and the fact that of the 42 different men to serve, four of them are fathers-and-sons (Adams, Bush), two of them are grandfathers-and-grandsons (Harrison), and two are recognized (although distant) cousins (Rooosevelt).

In a country of the population of the US (now about 300,000,000), this indicates to me that only an extremely small percentage of humanity is fit for the job, or -- more likely -- the process we use to sort out who may be fit to be President of the United States is terribly inefficient.

I come to the conclusion that "We, the People" aren't looking hard enough or smart enough for good Presidential Timber.

Posted by: Dave Alway on November 13, 2006 at 6:50 PM | PERMALINK

Thanks, Apollo. I stand (well, actually lean against the worktable) corrected.

Posted by: shortstop on November 13, 2006 at 6:59 PM | PERMALINK

Dave Alway,

Well, if you consider Shrub to be the fifth cousin, fifth removed through his mother's side to Franklin Pierce, then, yes, we are not looking hard enough for a "few good menschtypes".

Posted by: thethirdPaul on November 13, 2006 at 7:00 PM | PERMALINK

I think Iowa will be less important next time, because of the inclusion of Nevada and South Carolina.

I honestly don't see Hillary doing well in any of those states.

And don't count out Richardson. He's raising money like crazy, and he won in a landslide (yeah, ok, New Mexico has like 14 registered voters, but still)...he'll do well in Nevada. And Edwards has practically moved to Iowa.

Posted by: merciless on November 13, 2006 at 7:02 PM | PERMALINK

cmdicley has stolen my thunder, almost.

I was going to point out that it could be a boon to those who correctly play the expectations game. While the Iowan wil need to dominate, and therefore has mostly downside risk, Hon, Sen. Clinton, even if her bloom has faded by then, will still have a monetary advatage that would require a strong showing (if she particiaptes). However a dark horse can still make headlines with relatively weak showing amongst the behemoths.

Posted by: jhm on November 13, 2006 at 7:03 PM | PERMALINK

From: Karl Rove
To : Republican Columnists
Date: 11/8/2006

Dear Friends:

Since we've lost control of Congress, we must now focus on 2008. Start writing everything you can to scare everyone about Hillary!

Posted by: Jon on November 13, 2006 at 7:06 PM | PERMALINK

With the Democrats in the majority, won't Hillary have to stay in Washington and work?

If the Democrats pass the Clean EDGE Act, Hillary will be able to tell Iowa voters that she voted for biofuels subsidies after she voted against them. I doubt that will play well.

Posted by: MatthewRMarler on November 13, 2006 at 7:13 PM | PERMALINK

Vilsak won't have much appeal outside of Iowa and does open up the field for everyone else. Clark will do really well in Nevada and have a good shot at New Hampshire. No one's been paying attention, but he was the contender building the best relationship in both those states, campaigning for Dems up and down the tickets there. Either the media is trying to play him as the outsider again, or they haven't been paying much attention.

In '04 Edwards did poorly outside of Iowa and S.C. Clark did much better overall before he got out, coming in second most place while he was in the race. Again, most people forget that.

Obama won't run because he'll be a wash out after four years like Edwards (who was a wash out after 6 years). I'd say he's more likely running for VP.

Clinton would be exciting to watch, but I do think that she'll stick to the Senate. Just a haunch.

Posted by: gq on November 13, 2006 at 7:20 PM | PERMALINK

Too far away to tell. But my guess is that Edwards goes in and beats Vilsack, while Hillary sits out, making himself a force to be reckoned with.

Posted by: brian on November 13, 2006 at 7:24 PM | PERMALINK

Has anyone noticed how quickly Al and American Hawk always get on here. Its as if they have nothing else to do.I figure that they are either well over 70 years old with really nothing else to do or they're under 14 with nothing else to do.Get a life guys.It explains why your viewpoints are so whacked.

Posted by: gandalf on November 13, 2006 at 7:43 PM | PERMALINK

This conservative obsession with Hillary is too intense and irrational to be anything other than a psycho-sexual manifestation of some deep conflict in the conservative unconscious mind.

Oh, if only she were the nominee. What fevered fantasies. The Matriarch they love to hate. The national mother figure, as strong as any man. An object to roil the conservative mind into a boiling cauldron of conflicted emotions. Hillary the Madonna, Hillary the witch, with mysterious magical powers. A natural vessel to receive the deeply suppressed anger the against a society inexorably abandoning traditional values. The conservative male ideal of the strong father and nurturing mother giving way to the powerful, liberated feminist woman. Evil feminists, the emasculators, the dominators -- deeply frightening, but somehow strangely alluring.

If only she were the nominee!

aa

P.S. Let the Cons continue their Hillary obsession -- encourage it -- and watch their heads explode when Barack gets the nomination.

Posted by: aaron aardvarka on November 13, 2006 at 7:45 PM | PERMALINK

This conservative obsession with Hillary is too intense and irrational to be anything other than a psycho-sexual manifestation of some deep conflict in the conservative unconscious mind.

Authoritarians hate strong women.

They like compliant Condi and Laura types for follow men's lead.

Posted by: t-t-t-trolls r us on November 13, 2006 at 7:52 PM | PERMALINK

"In fact, it seems like a sharp observation."

It is, which is why I made the same point last week:

It also seems obvious that Hillary Clinton can now skip the Iowa Caucuses if she wants without paying much of a price, just as her husband did in 1992. My guess would be that she would campaign hard in New Hampshire, which happens to be tucked up close to her current stomping ground in New York, and which, again, was the site of her husbands first real test of presidential viability.

"Question for the audience: is Iowa a problem for Hillary in the first place?"

Anything that requires Hillary to go toe to toe with the competition is a problem for her. She is not her husband, she is significantly older than she was when they were running his non-stop campaign, and she wants to get this all done with a minimum of blow-ups, gaffes, regular human moments, etc. Iowa is the marathon of political campaigning in a presidential year and I don't think she's looking forward to running it.

"Does she benefit by being allowed to ignore it?"

Absolutely. And not only because her DLC buddy Mr. Vilsack will have her back in that state. Iowa is bigger than most people think, and even if you concentrate on the population centers you're in for a lot of travel to a lot of small-group talks. Iowans involved in the caucus process put the candidates through their paces. She would be greeted as royalty early, but then as the luster wore off she'd have to slug it out with the rest of the riff-raff.

New Hampshire, by contrast, is much smaller, meaning less travel time between stops. It's closer to her base of operations, it would be easier for her to go back-and-forth to NY, and there will be less competition there simply because a number of competitors will have dropped out before or because of the Iowa caucuses.

Anything Hillary Clinton can do to not be seen as just another canidate helps her. Every bad hair day, every lackluster performance, every dour glance hurts her in a way that it won't hurt a man. She's playing the role of political star, and that means she needs to control the stage.

In IA there's no way to do that.

Posted by: Mark on November 13, 2006 at 8:01 PM | PERMALINK

gandalf,
It's probably just from an RSS feed. My guess is that some of these people get paid to troll. Sounds like a really "fun" job if so.

Posted by: gq on November 13, 2006 at 8:08 PM | PERMALINK

I won't know who I'm going to vote for in 2008 until all the pundits and all the analysts with all their fancy charts and graphs fully explain to me why I voted Democratic in 2006.

Posted by: asdfg on November 13, 2006 at 8:16 PM | PERMALINK

I come to the conclusion that "We, the People" aren't looking hard enough or smart enough for good Presidential Timber.

I dunno, Monica seemed to find it all right (okay, sorrry, couldn't resist and timber certainly beats shrub!)

Anyway, been away through most of the post election threads so OT from a Canuck, hey congrats! The system still works stiltingly if the people are pissed off enough. Note though that the Senate's(where gerrymandering is not a factor) 24 to 9 result is very different from the House. If if were a better functioning system the Republicans would proably be looking at somewhere around 150 seats (figure pulled from somewhere in the air).

Back OT, I think cm's got it right. If Hillary participates in Iowa, she absoultely must have a strong second place showing.

But gawd, Podhoretz is icky (and is paid to be).. Sure he isn't the Bulgarian Pigeon?

Posted by: snicker-snack on November 13, 2006 at 8:22 PM | PERMALINK

Al and American Hawk are probably rss campers.

They'd be more welcome at Republican stooge sites, but Republican stooge sites are incredibly foul, boring, blinkered, and dull. If those two (and Norman and Charlie) aren't paid to harass the people here, they at least show the good sense not to hang around Republican stooge sites.

They come here to hang around the cool kids.

Posted by: Jeffrey Davis on November 13, 2006 at 8:26 PM | PERMALINK

REGRESSIVE-DEMOCRATS . . . READY . . .

GIVEN THE POLLS AGAINST GEORGE BUSH AND THE REPUBLICANS AND THE SPECIAL SITUATION OF FRUSTRATION WITH IRAQ, 232 HOUSE SEATS OUT OF 435 (53% OF SEATS) LOOKS TO BE THE BEST YOU'LL EVER DO GOING FORWARD; AND THAT'S ONLY BECAUSE YOU'VE ABANDONED EVERY PRE-2000 INANITY YOU'VE EVER EMBRACED (ANTI-NAFTA, ANTI-WELFARE REFORM, ANTI-TAX RELIEF, ANTI-DEFENSE SPENDING).

And now you cannot even parlay control of the House and Senate into campaign cash from lobbyists because you ran saying you'd end it. This is not the beginning, it is the end.

By the way; just wait until the press gets word out about people, especially inner-city people, being fired when the minimum wage hits $7+. Prediction: Pain.

TOH

Posted by: The Objective Historian on November 13, 2006 at 8:28 PM | PERMALINK

I agree with merciless and brian - Edwards has quietly kept up his ties with caucus-goers and will make a splash in Iowa. I don't see Vilsack going anywhere - even in Iowa he's polling behind several likely candidates.

Posted by: I never post on November 13, 2006 at 8:30 PM | PERMALINK

Jeffrey Davis: calling yourself a "cool kid," especially when your an adult . . . it's not cool, dude. In fact it's a little creepy; and . . . well, kind of queer - I don't mean homosexual - I mean pathetic.

TOH

Posted by: The Objective Historian on November 13, 2006 at 8:30 PM | PERMALINK

Prediction: Pain.

Alice dearie, you off your meds again? Or just more shrill as you're losing.

Prediction 1 (your little thingee about the minimum wage): it won't happen.

John Kenneth Galbratih used to say that if he were to do it all over again, he would have become an Economic historian. No ceteris paribus there.

Prediction 2 (your litte Door's ditty; "My only friend...) Uh-uh. Sorry there bucko but your long, cold night is only just beginning.

You've got no mojo.

Posted by: snciker-snack on November 13, 2006 at 8:39 PM | PERMALINK

Why is it Hillary & Iowa and not in comparative situations Al & Iowa or Barack & Iowa or John & Iowa or Wesley or Iowa?

Isn't the use of her first name add to the subtle distinction betweem her and the male candidates. like she isn't quite so serious?

Be consistant in how her name is used and how the rest of the candidates are. Otherwise you fall into the game the Repubs would like you to.

Posted by: hopeless pedant on November 13, 2006 at 8:51 PM | PERMALINK

Billary can skip IA. If she does, she better win NH and any of the other races right around it. If she decides to run, it would be interesting. If she lost NH, I wonder what the MSM would do, since they've been fellating her all this time.

Posted by: Ghost of Tom Joad on November 13, 2006 at 9:08 PM | PERMALINK

She's not going to bail on Iowa. She will use that as her coming out. More than likely she will win big. She's only been playing close to the vest because she hasn't been in the majority.

Posted by: patience on November 13, 2006 at 9:10 PM | PERMALINK

Be consistant in how her name is used and how the rest of the candidates are. Otherwise you fall into the game the Repubs would like you to.

I get your point, but I assume (hope?) that most people use "Hillary" as a shorthand to distinguish her from "Bill".

However, my preference is for initials: HRC, WJC, GWB, etc.

Posted by: Disputo on November 13, 2006 at 9:12 PM | PERMALINK

Here's my prediction.

Bill Clinton sweet talks Hillary Rodham Clinton into not running.

"Awww, Hill, being Senator from New York is a pretty good deal... right"

"Hmmph."

"Remember what they used to say about you?... It's gonna be mean and nasty again. Let someone else run."

Posted by: Carl Nyberg on November 13, 2006 at 9:18 PM | PERMALINK

Here's another observation....if the Democrats nominate Hillary she will lose the general election badly, regardless of whether she is opposed by McCain, Guiliani, or Romney. To start with, her negatives are already at 40%. Once the Republican attack machine gets going, they will only go up from there.

But most importantly, consider that only two sitting Senators have been elected president in the last 100 years....Harding and JFK. Senators simply do not make good presidential candidates, in my opinion because they spend too much time in Washington and lose their ability to connect with crowds. Note that in the last three presidential elections, the former Senator has lost all three (Dole in 1996, Gore in 2000, and Kerry in 2004).

Second, note that the JFK is the only person from the northeast to win the presidency since WWII. The other four Democrats to win have all been southerners (LBJ, Carter, Clinton) or midwesterners (Truman). So that's two strikes against Hillary (and Kerry for that matter).

The Democratic candidate who has the best chance of winning a national election is Bill Richardson. He's a governer, not from the northeast, Latino, looks comfortable in a flannel shirt and cowboy boots, can build on the Democrats recent successes in Colorado and Montana, has foreign policy experience (was Secretary to the UN), has immigration policy experience (by virtue of being Governor of New Mexico), and was Energy Secretary (useful when dicussing our dependence on foreign oil).

He brings a lot more to the table than all of the other candidates, and because he's spent the last eight years in Santa Fe, would be seen as a refreshing voice untainted by Washington.


Posted by: mfw13 on November 13, 2006 at 9:18 PM | PERMALINK

Whatever.

If Bush can call on DeFacto Vice President Poppy, Hillary can call on a guy who was President for twice as long.

Posted by: Impeach.Remove.Convict.Punish.Justice on November 13, 2006 at 9:19 PM | PERMALINK

A local news poll in Iowa shows that about 2/3rds of the respondents won't be voting for Vilsack. Meaning that Iowa remains very much in play. And if Vilsack does eventually turn the tide, it will depend on if the media play up the "hometown" aspect of the affair or the "out of nowhere like Kerry in 2004" side of the story.

Either way, Vilsack's no lock to take Iowa. And if he doesn't and Hillary's not there to capitalize, then someone else could steal the momentum that she may need.

Posted by: Scott on November 13, 2006 at 9:20 PM | PERMALINK

I'm living in Iowa, and while Vilsack is popular here, he's not that popular. Nobody in Iowa thinks he has much of a chance. A serious Democratic candidate would be foolish to write off Iowa.

Edwards and Obama certainly haven't written off Iowa. I've seen both of them speak here in the last month, and they were as aware as everyone else that Vilsack was considering a run.

Posted by: nemo on November 13, 2006 at 9:20 PM | PERMALINK

I have some resentment towards Iowa for foisting Kerry on us... plus 90% of Iowa Dems I've talked to hate Howard Dean's guts.

And I'm living in Iowa for the next 3 years.

(Sigh)

I never thought I'd say this but I hope J-Pod is right.

Posted by: MNPundit on November 13, 2006 at 9:24 PM | PERMALINK

Frankly, I do hope Hillary runs. If no-one else is polarizing enough, I'm sure Hillary can turn this Culture War into a Shooting War.

And that's really what we need to have happen.

To get these lying cryptofascists to show themselves for what they really are.

Posted by: Impeach.Remove.Convict.Punish.Justice on November 13, 2006 at 9:30 PM | PERMALINK

Bush is a JEW.

Here are 30 or so pictures of GW Bush, and cohorts, having fun with rabbis, etc,....

I like the ones with Bush wearing a Yarmulke,...

Bush is a Jew.

http://linux.coconia.net/politics/bush-jews.htm
http://linux.coconia.net/politics/bush-jews-pix.htm (just the photos)

Get it while you can, because it will soon dissappear by Jew censorship.

Posted by: MiniMax on November 13, 2006 at 9:52 PM | PERMALINK

I'd like to see the primary schedule changed so that Iowa and New Hampshire don't have a lock on nominating our Presidential candidates. They are relatively small agricultural states with populations that are 99% white. Their demographic is not representative of the country as a whole. There is no good reason to continue allowing them to define the turf in Presidential elections.

Posted by: Global Yokel on November 13, 2006 at 10:00 PM | PERMALINK

Wow. The midterm elections last week have given birth to a flock of overanalyzing twits. Tom Vilsack has the name recognition of a subspecies of tree fungus. Hillary Clinton probably wouldn't spit on Vilsack's corpse if it were smoking.

Barack Obama is the only Democrat that can beat any Republican presidential candidate, hands down. Now, if only the DNC recognizes that. Nominating Hillary in 2008 will doom the Democrats to minority status for another decade. Get a clue, Howard Dean.


Posted by: The Conservative Deflator on November 13, 2006 at 10:13 PM | PERMALINK

Who cares. In the end, Obama wll be the presumptive favorite.

Bill's, and therefore Hillary's most important core of support are African Americans. But now there is a fly in the soup.

With Obama, African Americans have the unique and historic oportunity to claim the leadership of the Democratic party. And no group has been more loyal to the world's oldest political party. They will seriouly demand their due tribute.

With demographic changes rippling through our society, African American leaders know that they are running out of time. They are no longer the largest minority and within a generation, they will be passed by Asians.

Their time is now, Hillery notwithstanding.

Posted by: Keith G on November 13, 2006 at 10:22 PM | PERMALINK

Let me add another point to my above post:

While some African American leaders who are thoroughly wedded to the Dem esrtablishment might support HRC no matter what, I am thinking that if Barak continues to show promise African American leaders will go to Hillery and point out that they can not support her in light of Obama's effort and they will ask her not to run, but to play kingmaker and assume a role as an elder stateswoman of the party.

Posted by: Keith G on November 13, 2006 at 10:33 PM | PERMALINK

Agree with TCD at 10:13. As an Iowan (non-native) I'm pretty sure Vilsack wouldn't take Iowa, and will probably drop out well before the caucuses. Also, Hillary could do well here in Iowa as a native midwesterner and being from Illinois.

Bottom line: Iowa is wide open.

-UD

Posted by: ugly_duck on November 13, 2006 at 10:36 PM | PERMALINK

I live in Iowa and wouldn't vote for either Vilsack or Hillary. Hopefully the democrats can field better candidates than that...I hope Clark runs and has a good campaign.

Posted by: andrew on November 13, 2006 at 10:37 PM | PERMALINK

It seems pretty clear Howard Dean is not fan enough of Hillary for the Clintonistas - witness the long knives Carville and Emanuel brought out right after the election when the 50 state strategy was actually vindicated; they want someone, I'm guessing, who won't even say boo or try to make this a race of any sort. I tend to agree with the person who says Hillary has to come in 2nd and anything else will hurt her, although if she could beat Vilsack, wouldn't much of this be all over except for shouting? While Podhoretz is over the top on this, his observations are generally smart, and frankly Hillary scares the bejeezus out of me too, and I don't think she can be stopped. And I'm not scared the way some people are that she'll set back Democrats until the end of time. I am concerned because she could win. Look at that map from last Tuesday and realize there are ways for her to put together a winning scenario. Then contemplate just what it is exactly she'll do when she's won. You don't have any idea, do you? Keep that in mind...

Posted by: weboy on November 13, 2006 at 10:48 PM | PERMALINK

Do you think that Bush being a JEW, has any bearing on the discussion?

Bush is a Jew.

http://linux.coconia.net/politics/bush-jews.htm
http://linux.coconia.net/politics/bush-jews-pix.htm (just the photos)

I like the photos of Bush wearing a Yarmulke (skullcap),...

Posted by: MiniMax on November 13, 2006 at 10:53 PM | PERMALINK

I don't think that Obama will run in 2008.He will link early to someone else as VP. I would like to see Clark/Obama. But just think of Clinton/Obama. That would be a freight train,at least for the nomination!

Posted by: R.L. on November 13, 2006 at 11:43 PM | PERMALINK

Karl Levin and Bush...

My gosh Levin is ready to get out of Iraq, and is firing up the hope of all Americans to get out of this major fiasco that Bush created, but Levin says he going to talk to McCain, but of course, McCain is still completely shell-shocked by lossing the House AND the Senate. McCain is a "Stay the Course" die hard, so no use in talking to McCain about any of this shit. McCain is insane, even more insane that Bush/Cheney is over this Iraq thing. In fact it looks like McCain was seriously going to run on "Win the War - Draft the Kids" for prezNUT in 2008. A regular fruitloop.

It must have been easy dropping Napalm from so high above, just before becoming involuntarily a POW member. I sometimes wonder if its possible that McCain completely missed the horror and the tragedy of Vietnam, instead McCain simply fall in love with war hero fantasy without really experiencing the real Vietnam war.

Iraq is just another Vietnam and McCain is another LBJ, only with ample amount of twist of Bush;s lying, mixed right in with his "France is our Foe" and "Keating was my campaign hero."

Posted by: Cheryl on November 13, 2006 at 11:52 PM | PERMALINK

Feingold in 2008!

Not only is he an actual progressive (unlike, say, Hillary or Obama) but we could get posters saying "Feingold is a goy!".

Posted by: alex on November 13, 2006 at 11:53 PM | PERMALINK

Cheryl: In fact it looks like McCain was seriously going to run on "Win the War - Draft the Kids" for prezNUT in 2008. A regular fruitloop.

Then he'd be the perfect Publican candidate in 2008 (unless Hillary is on the Democrat ticket, in which case I'm voting for Mickey Mouse).

I sometimes wonder if its possible that McCain completely missed the horror and the tragedy of Vietnam, instead McCain simply fall in love with war hero fantasy without really experiencing the real Vietnam war.

In all fairness, anybody who spent 5 years as a POW got a pretty good taste of Vietnam. Doesn't mean he's not a fruit loop, but he's no chickenhawk.

Posted by: alex on November 13, 2006 at 11:58 PM | PERMALINK

R.L. if Obama really wants to be president, now is his best time to run. Caution is a luxury held in large supply by the non-great.

Posted by: Keith G on November 14, 2006 at 12:00 AM | PERMALINK

Man, finding out Bush is a JEW, was big news for me.

By you're lack of response, it is clear that you guys already knew/know that Bush is a JEW.

SO HOW COME YOU NEVER TOLD ME?

Bush is a Jew.

http://linux.coconia.net/politics/bush-jews.htm
http://linux.coconia.net/politics/bush-jews-pix.htm (just the photos)

Posted by: MiniMax on November 14, 2006 at 12:12 AM | PERMALINK

Okay, this is the third time this week AL that your Mother has found gay pornogrography empty meth baggies.

When AL get's back from his massage, from Art I think, you tell him, for me, to get his hot pink fanny perpendicular to the house and clear out his falafel collection. Thanks ALs Daddy[and Pastor]

PS I have a boner to pick with him.

Posted by: Als Daddy on November 14, 2006 at 12:20 AM | PERMALINK

Yeah, just think about those crews in the Eighth Army Air Corps out of England who never were able to experience the "real" war in Germany, Holland, France and Belgium.

So, you have to see a bullet from a MG-42 coming straight at you or ripping through your buddies to experience "real" war.

Yes, dropping bombs from high altitudes over Schweinfurt may seem dispassionate, but how many were blown out of the sky to, over and from there? So, the thousands of airmen killed in action or ended up in POW camps never experienced the "real" horrors of war? You set pretty high standards for experiencing "real" war.

Perhaps if one were a "Rambo" on the ground, doing hand to hand combat for, how many, five, six months perhaps, and you could show your bloody hands, then you would qualify?

I am no McCain supporter, but, Cheryl, that is absolute horse shit. And sorry, Scotian, for becoming emotional. I'll end up getting an D-Minus for this.

Posted by: thethirdPaul on November 14, 2006 at 12:27 AM | PERMALINK

"I have some resentment towards Iowa for foisting Kerry on us... plus 90% of Iowa Dems I've talked to hate Howard Dean's guts.

And I'm living in Iowa for the next 3 years.

(Sigh)"

-it's not like that so much in Iowa City MnPundit. if i'm not mistaken, Kocinich came in third in our caucus, & Dean just behind Kerry. It's the only city in this state I'd have any enthsiasm for living in, but it's nice here & not just nice by comparison I think.

I don't think that Vilsack is a shoo in to win the state either. He's kind of charisma challenged & that hurts the perception of his electability, which hurts him with voters self conscious about their influence in the process.

Posted by: Urk on November 14, 2006 at 12:29 AM | PERMALINK

MM..Bush is not a Jew, he is a Zionist. One could be a Atheist and still become a Zionist. Zionism is not about creating a Jewish state, that's been done. Zionism is expanding that state beyond it's borders.

Zionism is basically modern day colonialization.

Posted by: Als Daddy on November 14, 2006 at 12:29 AM | PERMALINK
In fact it looks like McCain was seriously going to run on "Win the War - Draft the Kids" for prezNUT in 2008. A regular fruitloop.

Actually, its Rangel that introduced the Mandatory Service Act of 2006. I don't know if McCain is a supporter of that however.

Posted by: Als Daddy on November 14, 2006 at 12:49 AM | PERMALINK
REGRESSIVE-DEMOCRATS . . . READY . . . GIVEN THE POLLS AGAINST GEORGE BUSH AND THE REPUBLICANS AND THE SPECIAL SITUATION OF FRUSTRATION WITH IRAQ, 232 HOUSE SEATS OUT OF 435 (53% OF SEATS) LOOKS TO BE THE BEST YOU'LL EVER DO GOING FORWARD; AND THAT'S ONLY BECAUSE YOU'VE ABANDONED EVERY PRE-2000 INANITY YOU'VE EVER EMBRACED (ANTI-NAFTA, ANTI-WELFARE REFORM, ANTI-TAX RELIEF, ANTI-DEFENSE SPENDING)
Only 5 of all those Democrats were 'social', note the word 'social' conservatives. The incumbents were re-elected. BTW why do you approve of Rove calling you guys nuts?
And now you cannot even parlay control of the House and Senate into campaign cash from lobbyists because you ran saying you'd end it. This is not the beginning, it is the end.
Rove and the GOP spent some 45+ million on intensive smear campaign, It did them no good did it? I am glad to see that you think Delay and Abramoff [Corruption] is required to 'WIN'. What kind of Conservative 'moral value' is that? What did Jesus say about Money MR.GOD?
By the way; just wait until the press gets word out about people, especially inner-city people, being fired when the minimum wage hits $7+. Prediction: Pain.

What do you care? Everyone knows that Conservatives only care about life when it's in the womb. Besides many states have already raised the min wage and the latest studies show that a min wage increase did not cause 'pain' but just the opposite. Your repeating economyth crappola.

Posted by: Als Daddy on November 14, 2006 at 1:06 AM | PERMALINK

The 2006 mid-term elections are barely over but I already have Hilary Fatigue.

Posted by: Frequency Kenneth on November 14, 2006 at 1:10 AM | PERMALINK

The Democratic candidate who has the best chance of winning a national election is Bill Richardson. He's a governer, not from the northeast, Latino, looks comfortable in a flannel shirt and cowboy boots, can build on the Democrats recent successes in Colorado and Montana, has foreign policy experience (was Secretary to the UN), has immigration policy experience (by virtue of being Governor of New Mexico), and was Energy Secretary (useful when discussing our dependence on foreign oil).

How truly sad that this is even a consideration, let alone an actual meaningful point.

Posted by: craigie on November 14, 2006 at 1:24 AM | PERMALINK

Then contemplate just what it is exactly she'll do when she's won. You don't have any idea, do you? Keep that in mind...

I have no idea what any Democrat has in mind. Hillary is par on that score with the others.

Posted by: dagger on November 14, 2006 at 1:49 AM | PERMALINK

"Bush is not a Jew, he is a Zionist."

Actually, Bush is a Jew.

Pierce is an Americanization of the Jewish name Perez/Peretz/Peres.

The name is of Hebrew origin (see, eg, Genesis 38 and the First Chronicles).

Note all the Jewish "Pierces" in his family (mum and dad's side) tree below, eg, his mother and Levi, Ephraim, Mial, Nathan and Isaac Pierce.

In case you are interested Levi and Barbara Pierce are related as follows:

Thomas Holbrook (d. 1677) m. Jane Powys
.John Holbrook m. Elizabeth Stream
|.Hannah Holbrook m. Ephraim Pierce
| .Ephraim Pierce m. Mary Low
|  .Mial Pierce m. Judith Round
|   .Nathan Pierce m. Lydia Martin
|    .Isaac Pierce m. Anna Fitch
|     .LEVI PIERCE m. Betsey Slade Wheeler
|      .Elizabeth Slade Pierce m. Courtland Philip Livingston Butler
|       .Mary Elizabeth Butler m. Robert Emmet Sheldon
|        .Flora Sheldon m. Samuel Prescott Bush
|         .Prescott Sheldon Bush m. Dorothy Walker
|          .GEORGE HERBERT WALKER BUSH m. Barbara Pierce
|           .GEORGE W. BUSH, US President
.Thomas Holbrook m. Jane Kingman
 .Peter Holbrook m. Alice Godfrey
  .Sylvanus Holbrook m. Naomi Cook
   .John Holbrook m. Zilpah Thayer
    .John Holbrook m. Rhoda Thayer
     .John Holbrook m. Mercy Hill
      .Chloe Holbrook m. James Pierce
       .Jonas James Pierce m. Kate Pritzel
        .Scott Pierce m. Mabel Marvin
         .Marvin Pierce m. Pauline Robinson
          .BARBARA PIERCE

So Bush's mother is his cousin,... so Bush is as inbred as they say.

Posted by: MiniMax on November 14, 2006 at 1:59 AM | PERMALINK

Funniest Al quote yet "Our president is a shrewd tactician, and he will ensure that successes are seen as Republican, and mistakes are seen as bipartisan."

This is the same genius that's losing two wars simultaniusly and has become such a party liability that he was told not to show up at GOP candidate rallies.

Posted by: joe on November 14, 2006 at 2:12 AM | PERMALINK

You know who will absolutely NOT skip Iowa again? Wesley Clark. His example in 04 is more important than 92. Vilsack is not unbeatable in Iowa (I live there). And Edwards would love to have a strong second, or even a win. If someone beats Vilsack, the people who sit out Iowa are in BIG trouble.

Posted by: swinty on November 14, 2006 at 4:56 AM | PERMALINK

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Posted by: 注册香港公司美国公司商标 on November 14, 2006 at 4:57 AM | PERMALINK

Is 注册香港公司美国公司商标 embarrassed that GW Bush is a Jew?

Here, have a look at these 30 or so pictures of GW Bush, and cohorts, having fun with rabbis, and deside for yourself,...

Bush is a Jew.

http://linux.coconia.net/politics/bush-jews.htm
http://linux.coconia.net/politics/bush-jews-pix.htm (just the photos)

Posted by: Is 注册香港公司美国公司商标 on November 14, 2006 at 5:06 AM | PERMALINK

Horrors - This just in - Adam and Eve were JEWS - Oh, mein whatever in himmel land -

Hmm, that must mean, we're all JEWS - Even the miniest of maxes - and Claire - and Bob.

Hey, minimind - get out your caliphers - better check everyone's noses - get thee to 1600 immediately and check Shrub's.

Another day dawns and instead of talking about the loss of two more of our troops, we will have the re-reading of the Protocols of Zion. How meaningful and timely.

Hey, mini-mind, how is your lawsuit against your Moyel coming? Your new mini-prick goes well with your mini-mind though.

Posted by: thethirdPaul on November 14, 2006 at 9:02 AM | PERMALINK

[...]calling yourself a "cool kid," especially when your an adult . . . it's not cool, dude. In fact it's a little creepy; and . . . well, kind of queer - I don't mean homosexual - I mean pathetic.

Sorry that you're that tone deaf.

Posted by: Jeffrey Davis on November 14, 2006 at 9:08 AM | PERMALINK

When the fuck has j-pod been right about anything? There are people running our national discourse who if they tell you the sky is blue you had better check it yourself, j-pod is one of them,

Posted by: klyde on November 14, 2006 at 9:39 AM | PERMALINK

Beats me. But it's worth noting that Iowa Senator Tom Harkin took Iowa out of play in 1992, and we all know who went on to win the nomination and the presidency that year. Hmmm.....

Yes. A guy who was by no stretch of the imagination, the 800 lb. gorilla at the beginning of the campaign.

Posted by: Michael Sullivan on November 14, 2006 at 9:40 AM | PERMALINK

Kevin's hit the big time! not only is he drawing out the trolls, he's got bigots, too! Thanks Mini Max, but take your mini mind elsewhere.

OTOH, weren't you the guy predicting dems losses this year? So we're supposed to believe you this time? You're an idiot, so I'll believe the exact opposite of what you say.

Cheryl, as 3rd Paul notes, I have many problems with McCain and his political stands, but no need to diminish his war record. I don't see how spending 5 years in the Hanoi Hilton didn't give him a "taste of war". If not, it certainly gave him a taste of hell.

Alex - unfortunately, Feingold is not running. He said so last week. It's too bad, I looked forward to voting for him. (And no, Mini Mind, I'm not Jewish. At least, I don't think I am.)

The most important aspect of Vilsack in Iowa isn't whether he'll win, but who he'll take votes from. My guess is that he will take votes from centrists like Hillary.

Posted by: MeLoseBrain? on November 14, 2006 at 9:49 AM | PERMALINK

Who cares? The next presidental election is 2 years down the road. The Democrats will probably nominate Hillary. She has about as much chance of winning as Kevin Drum. Hundreds of millions will be lost in a fool's errand.

What we have to do now is make sure John McCain doesn't have any coattails.

Posted by: Ron Byers on November 14, 2006 at 10:14 AM | PERMALINK

Want to start making things right in Iraq? Start by apolgising to the Iraqi people for this unjust war (while making clear that there is no apologising for removing their dictator) that has killed many thousands of their people.

Reclaim the money that has gone to Halliburton etc., and divide that up. Half back to the American people the other half to the people of Iraq in partial compensation for the destruction of their country.

Posted by: apologise and pay back on November 14, 2006 at 10:52 AM | PERMALINK

OT: US: Immigrants may be held indefinitely

WASHINGTON - Immigrants arrested in the United States may be held indefinitely on suspicion of terrorism and may not challenge their imprisonment in civilian courts, the Bush administration said Monday, opening a new legal front in the fight over the rights of detainees.

Posted by: Apollo 13 on November 14, 2006 at 10:57 AM | PERMALINK

craigie: How truly sad that this is even a consideration, let alone an actual meaningful point.

Exactly. They didn't even mention how his ass looks in his Levis.

Speaking of which, what was that bullshit remark Bush made about Nancy Pelosi and Bob Bullock at his presser last week? Was he making a comment about how she looks to go with the would-be-condescending drapery remark? I missed the Bullock remark in context, so apologies if I'm jumping to conclusions.

Regarding our sock-puppeting anti-Semite: It's not surprising that he/she/it would come back after the election, as he/she/it is clearly a creation of the right trying to portray the left as anti-Semitic. They don't have so many talking points and smear tactics left to them after last week's big spanking.

Posted by: shortstop on November 14, 2006 at 11:06 AM | PERMALINK

Keith G.: R.L. if Obama really wants to be president, now is his best time to run. Caution is a luxury held in large supply by the non-great.

Agree fully. Waiting for the perfect confluence of time and circumstances is a fool's game. You make your own political moment--or, in this case, take it when you see an opening.

Posted by: shortstop on November 14, 2006 at 11:09 AM | PERMALINK

Has anyone considered that Hillary might not run? And how crushed the Republicans and conservatives would be?

Sometimes it's better to be a kingmaker than a king.

Posted by: zak822 on November 14, 2006 at 11:17 AM | PERMALINK

One Hundred Fifty kidnapped at the Education Ministry in Baghdad.

Damn, if only we would had the balls to do that at our Department of Education.

No more nice guy, next time!

Posted by: Tommy Tunes DeLay on November 14, 2006 at 11:27 AM | PERMALINK

time for an economy thread: employment up, unemployment down, wages up, inflation down (deflation over last two months).

http://today.reuters.com/misc/PrinterFriendlyPopup.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2006-11-13T164731Z_01_N13425989_RTRIDST_0_ECONOMY-FED-FISHER-UPDATE-2.XML

Posted by: MatthewRMarler on November 14, 2006 at 11:57 AM | PERMALINK

Cragie and shortstop....my point was that to win a national election, a Democratic candidate has to be appealling to midwestern & rocky mountain voters....hence the flannel and cowboy boots comment (which you both obviously didn't get).

Gore and Kerry never were able to connect with these voters because they had both become creatures of Washington. Both would have looked like idiots wearing a flannel shirt and cowboy boots (and not coincidentally both lost to an inferior candidate who was able to speak the language of midwesterners and looked quite comfortable in a flannel shirt and cowboy boots.

It was just my way of saying that if the Democrats nonimate another Washington-based politician who has forgotten how to communicate with voters from the heartland they will lose the election.

Posted by: mfw13 on November 14, 2006 at 1:05 PM | PERMALINK

Bill Richardson looks comfortable in an XXXL flannel shirt. Right or wrong, after the TV age, we will never elect another Taft.

Posted by: Jeffery on November 14, 2006 at 1:08 PM | PERMALINK

Well, I apologize, mfw. I never even noticed your original post; I was just snarking around with my bud craigie, who I thought was quoting something else entirely.

Posted by: shortstop on November 14, 2006 at 1:18 PM | PERMALINK

My understanding is that Vilsack told Clark he didn't need to participate in Iowa --- then engineered the Kerry victory, which made Kerry "the Democrat who could win" thereafter.

Ignore at your peril.

Posted by: catherineD on November 14, 2006 at 2:47 PM | PERMALINK

Thanks shortstop. Jeffery....has Richardson gotten that fat? Haven't seen a actual photo of him in a while.

On that note, it's interesting that all the Republicans going gaga over McCain have failed to note that in 2008 he will be three years older than Reagan was when he was elected president. Reagan was 69 when first elected and 73 when re-elected. McCain will be 72 in 2008, and anybody who has seen him on TV lately can tell you that he is looking very very old.

Posted by: mfw13 on November 14, 2006 at 2:49 PM | PERMALINK

Looks like at least 300 lbs to me: http://artslab.unm.edu/whatis/govletter.htm

Posted by: Jeffery on November 14, 2006 at 3:06 PM | PERMALINK

mfw13,

McCain could bench press two of any challenger the Dems can send against him. He's a man's man, and strong as a bull. That's why the liberals will lose in 2008.

Posted by: Jeffery on November 14, 2006 at 3:16 PM | PERMALINK

Wait - I forgot that McCain can't lift his arms above his head - OK, he can leg press two Democrats then!!

Posted by: Jeffery on November 14, 2006 at 3:29 PM | PERMALINK

Living in Iowa I would like to say a few things.First Vilsak , for the most part, served Iowa pretty well,HOWEVER,at the end of his term some money issues came to light that RUINED his chances with Iowa voters of ever being thought of as a presidential candidate.We may like him but we aint sending him out on the national stage.Don't make the mistake of thinking Vilsak wins anything in Iowa just because we like him.Harkin has clout in this state Vilsak can only wish for...comparing the two is apples and oranges..Vilsak is ok but Harkin has a place in the hearts of Iowans.

I have my doubts about how Hillary will be received in Iowa, however they have nothing to do with Vilsak.I just don't think Iowa Democrats are ready for her yet...I could be wrong - I admit I was shocked to see Sharpton get near rock star status when he spoke here trying to get the nod for 04..Farmers were actually standing on their chairs screaming at Sharptons every word,, something I never thought I would see in Iowa...As we all know Sharpton was far from getting the nod, but my point is he was received far better here than anyone imagined.

Yes she can skip Iowa but if she does look for Iowa voters to go red again.They will pass on her as fast in the general election as she passed on our process.Snub Iowa and be snubbed back, the choice is hers...YES Iowa is a tough room to work but the truth is if she"can make it there, she'll make it anywhere"."It's up to her ,New York,New York!!!!!!"

Bush won Iowa by only 2000 votes.Something to think about.

Posted by: justme on November 14, 2006 at 3:36 PM | PERMALINK

McCain could curl the entire state of Iowa. He's not only going to beat you liberals in 2008, he's going to crush your bones and suck out the marrow.

Posted by: McCain on November 14, 2006 at 3:53 PM | PERMALINK

Want to start making things right in Iraq? Start by apolgising to the Iraqi people for this unjust war (while making clear that there is no apologising for removing OUR JEWISH dictator BUSH), who has killed many HUNDREDS OF thousands of their people.

In reply to "apologise and pay back" on November 14, 2006 at 10:52 AM

Really, Bush is a JEW.

Here are 30 or so pictures of GW Bush, and cohorts, having fun with rabbis, etc,....

Posted by: BUSH=MassKiller on November 14, 2006 at 9:55 PM | PERMALINK

Vilsack is a plus for Clinton. Edwards is/was going to win Iowa. Now when Edwards wins or comes in 2nd Clinton can say well I didn't compete in Iowa since my good friend Tom was running. She can now concentrate entirely on New Hampshire and Nevada.

Posted by: Gore/Feingold 2008 on November 15, 2006 at 4:45 AM | PERMALINK




 

 
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