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November 15, 2006

MORE TROOPS....General John Abizaid insisted to Congress today that we have precisely the right number of troops in Iraq at the moment. Not too many, not too few. Quite a coincidence, no? But then he accidentally told the truth:

Abizaid added that, even if it were in Iraq's best interest to increase the presence of U.S. forces, it would be difficult for the Pentagon to find additional combat troops without increasing the size of the active-duty military.

Translation: we don't have 20,000 more troops, Senator McCain, so will you please stop yapping about it?

Also: We need to get the violence under control in — wait for it — four to six months, or else it may be impossible to contain. OK then. I guess we'll just check back in March.

UPDATE: Then again, the Guardian reports this:

President George Bush has told senior advisers that the US and its allies must make "a last big push" to win the war in Iraq and that instead of beginning a troop withdrawal next year, he may increase US forces by up to 20,000 soldiers, according to sources familiar with the administration's internal deliberations.

...."You've got to remember, whatever the Democrats say, it's Bush still calling the shots. He believes it's a matter of political will. That's what [Henry] Kissinger told him. And he's going to stick with it," a former senior administration official said. "He [Bush] is in a state of denial about Iraq. Nobody else is any more. But he is. But he knows he's got less than a year, maybe six months, to make it work. If it fails, I expect the withdrawal process to begin next fall."

I think we're going to be hearing a lot more about this "last big push" strategy, so let's just acronym-ize it right now, shall we? From now on, it's LBP. Don't forget.

Kevin Drum 9:45 PM Permalink | Trackbacks | Comments (120)
 
Comments

And then if they can't get the violence under control, they'll admit the whole thing was a terrible fail... I mean, a great success... and come on home to ticker-tape parades. (Does anyone make ticker-tape anymore?)

Jeez, these guys make Westmoreland look like George Friggin' Patton.

Posted by: Kenji on November 15, 2006 at 9:53 PM | PERMALINK

Looks like Junior is going steal McCain's line


President George Bush has told senior advisers that the US and its allies must make "a last big push" to win the war in Iraq and that instead of beginning a troop withdrawal next year, he may increase US forces by up to 20,000 soldiers, according to sources familiar with the administration's internal deliberations.

Junior trys to save face. Obscene.

Posted by: Mel on November 15, 2006 at 9:56 PM | PERMALINK

Isn't this just the Stalingrad strategery?

Posted by: milo on November 15, 2006 at 9:57 PM | PERMALINK

Sorry for typo-should read "is trying"

Posted by: Mel on November 15, 2006 at 9:59 PM | PERMALINK

"He [Bush] is in a state of denial about Iraq. Nobody else is any more. But he is."

Well, somebody else is. Henry Kissinger.

Posted by: Ross Best on November 15, 2006 at 10:02 PM | PERMALINK

Last Big Push? WTF? Pushing what? And in what direction? All they no is platitudes.

Posted by: enozinho (wetorture.com) on November 15, 2006 at 10:02 PM | PERMALINK

President George Bush has told senior advisers that the US and its allies must make "a last big push" to win the war in Iraq and that instead of beginning a troop withdrawal next year, he may increase US forces by up to 20,000 soldiers, according to sources familiar with the administration's internal deliberations.

I think we're going to be hearing a lot more about this "last big push" strategy, so let's just acronym-ize it right now, shall we? From now on, it's LBP. Don't forget.

Hey, K-Drum, why the sarcasm? The fact is Bush has more information than you do about what's going on in Iraq so of course he would know better than you what to do in Iraq. Why don't you just wait six months to a year to see what the effects of the last big push are before attacking Bush's policies? If you were less partisan and more balanced that's what you would do, but since you're a partisan liberal, of course you aren't going to do it.

Posted by: Al on November 15, 2006 at 10:04 PM | PERMALINK

Why did you wanks delete my answer,... and the other comment I answered?

Posted by: Jack on November 15, 2006 at 10:04 PM | PERMALINK

Kevin, thanks for removing the Jew-baiter from the mix, but your, um, circumcision leaves us Jew-baita hatas looking foolish. Must be some kind of conspiracy.

Posted by: Kenji on November 15, 2006 at 10:05 PM | PERMALINK

Well, this thread's gone to hell in record time.

Posted by: Garamond12 on November 15, 2006 at 10:08 PM | PERMALINK

Nah....it's WMD....Wildly Maniacal Delusion!!!

Posted by: dw on November 15, 2006 at 10:11 PM | PERMALINK

手机图片 nails it!

Oh, and late-breaking bulletin: Al thinks Bush is a really neat president.

Posted by: Kenji on November 15, 2006 at 10:11 PM | PERMALINK

20,000 more into the grinder. Unfortunately, we can't shoot our way out of this one. All those wonderful weapon systems gone to waste ...

Posted by: jb on November 15, 2006 at 10:13 PM | PERMALINK

Let's see--$2 billion dollars a day, 30 million Iraqis. Can we just pay everyone $25,000/year to ignore us? Slip the envelope under the door and tiptoe silently away.....

Posted by: lahke on November 15, 2006 at 10:17 PM | PERMALINK

Last big push? To where? To do what? Raze Fallujah? What exactly could possibly be accomplished with a "last big push"? It's absurd. Bush is absurd.

Posted by: ckelly on November 15, 2006 at 10:18 PM | PERMALINK

Actually, LBP has Rove's fingerprints all over it. When the new Congress fails to go along, the "stab in the back" cries will be rehearsed and shrill. "DEMS FORCE RETREAT -- U.S. LOSES IRAQ WAR!"

Posted by: jb on November 15, 2006 at 10:19 PM | PERMALINK

Okay, I've been thinking about this a bit. LBP is really just an excuse so that Republicans can blame everyone else for when they are forced to leave. "Stabbed in the Back" and all...

Why not call their bluff? Give them a choice. Carpet bomb the Sunni Triangle or take steps to get out. No half-measures. The public is not interested in genocide, but unless it is laid out as a choice between mass-murder and a phased withdrawl, Republicans will always fall back to blaming everyone but themselves for the mess in Iraq.

Posted by: enozinho (wetorture.com) on November 15, 2006 at 10:19 PM | PERMALINK

But he's the Preznit and he knows more than Al. So how dare you question his wisdom, especially when he's done so well up until now. Whaddayou, crazy?

Posted by: Kenji on November 15, 2006 at 10:20 PM | PERMALINK

that 20,000 number is hilarious. What was McCain thinking? 200,000 would be a long shot for success.

Posted by: humble blogger on November 15, 2006 at 10:21 PM | PERMALINK

well, if they're going to play politics with this, then horribly enough, so should we.

the dems should say "fine, we'll give the bush administration what it's asking for even though we believe this is a deluded and foolish policy that will cost more american lives without doing a thing to improve the situation in iraq. at the end of six months, we'il start to impose a drawdown."

Posted by: howard on November 15, 2006 at 10:23 PM | PERMALINK

Obviously when voters went to the polls last weak, escalating the war was foremost on their minds.

Posted by: smedleybutler on November 15, 2006 at 10:24 PM | PERMALINK

1959 760
1960 900
1961 3205
1962 11300
1963 16300
1964 23300
1965 184300
1966 385300
1967 485600
1968 536100
1969 475200
1970 334600
1971 156800
1972 24200
1973 50

Posted by: Ghost of America's Past on November 15, 2006 at 10:27 PM | PERMALINK

I love Abizaid's "Goldilocks" assessment of troop strength in Iraq - not too big, not too small, but j-j-just right. Only a goddamn fool would say something so inane...

Posted by: The Conservative Deflator on November 15, 2006 at 10:28 PM | PERMALINK

LBP? How about SOL?

Posted by: just sayin on November 15, 2006 at 10:29 PM | PERMALINK

A Last Big Push wouldn't be successful even with 200,000 more troops.

I suspect that three things will follow from this Last Big Push.

A Splash.

Some judicial use of Toilet Paper.

And a great Flushing sound, as the country that used to be Iraq becomes what Afghanistan became after the Soviet pullout.

Posted by: Impeach.Remove.Convict.Punish.Justice on November 15, 2006 at 10:29 PM | PERMALINK

Methinks the Chinese have 200,000+ troops ready to go.

Posted by: Soviet Canuckastani on November 15, 2006 at 10:29 PM | PERMALINK

I misread the "LBP" as "last pig, Bush." Did anyone else?

Posted by: Barry on November 15, 2006 at 10:38 PM | PERMALINK

A Last Big Push wouldn't be successful even with 200,000 more troops.

I suspect that three things will follow from this Last Big Push.

A Splash.

Some judicial use of Toilet Paper.

And a great Flushing sound, as the US enters is banana republic phase.

Posted by: ZHellsBells on November 15, 2006 at 10:38 PM | PERMALINK

lets see now:

Iraq, has total reserves of about 112 billion barrels of OIL.
The Iraq war will cost over 2 trillion.

Cost of OIL = $ 17.85 per barrel.

So the US has paid nearly $20 dollars a barrel for ALL the oil in Iraq,.. and didn't and probably won't get a drop of it.

Thats right, the US is about to collapse economically.

Posted by: MEl on November 15, 2006 at 10:40 PM | PERMALINK

All American politics is flavored by one deliberately ignored fact:

That Bush is a JEW.

How many folk think that the 30 or so pictures of GW Bush, and cohorts, having fun with rabbis, etc, at

Bush is a Jew.

are sufficient evidence to believe Bush is a Jew.

If you feel the photos are not enough, when his actions, which are NOT at all Christian, are factored in,... you have a proof,... beyond a reasonable doubt.

So will people here publicly claim that indeed Bush is a Jew?

If not, will they explain why they refuse to believe their own eyes and senses?

Posted by: MEl on November 15, 2006 at 10:41 PM | PERMALINK

As stupid as McCain's idea seems (and is), Murtha's proposed "redeployment" of troops from Iraq to Afghanistan seems equally flawed. Clearly the Iraq war is pointless, stupid, and mismanaged beyond repair, but does anyone else think that Afghanistan is an equally unwinnable war, fraught with the same pitfalls and obstacles that undermine our efforts in Iraq?

Posted by: smedleybutler on November 15, 2006 at 10:43 PM | PERMALINK

You guys are really into censorship, aren't you.

Jack.

Posted by: Jack on November 15, 2006 at 10:44 PM | PERMALINK

You guys are really into censorship, aren't you.

Jack.

Posted by: Jack on November 15, 2006 at 10:44 PM | PERMALINK

You guys are really into censorship, aren't you.

Jack.

Posted by: Jack on November 15, 2006 at 10:44 PM | PERMALINK

Ah, Kevin.

Feeling frustrated that Bush has once again successfully triangulated around the Democrat party again with his "Last Big Push?"

The Democrats are whining about how we've got to pull out in six months, and the American people smell their cowardice. But the American people find Bush's bull dog tenacity and focus on this issue intriguing. That is why you people have no chance in the next election.

Posted by: egbert on November 15, 2006 at 10:47 PM | PERMALINK

One thing people aren't realizing yet is how the Iraq war is going to demolish the prospects for ANY Republican nominee in 2008.

McCain's a splendid example. To satisfy his base, he has to push for delusional victory in Iraq every bit as hard as Bush. Indeed, it's going to be impossible for ANY Republican to get through to the nomination without loudly proclaiming that the Iraq war was the finest moment for both the Republic and the Republican Party.

And they will be destroyed -- DESTROYED -- in the general election.

Posted by: frankly0 on November 15, 2006 at 10:50 PM | PERMALINK

Army Group Steiner begin LBP for 1-2 Friedmans.Everyone else to the bunker.

Posted by: R.L. on November 15, 2006 at 10:55 PM | PERMALINK

"He [Bush] is in a state of denial about Iraq. Nobody else is any more. But he is."

Translation: the commander in chief of the American military has lost touch with reality and cannot be trusted.

Well, that's comforting, isn't it....?

Posted by: Stefan on November 15, 2006 at 10:57 PM | PERMALINK

Let's face what a "last big push" really is going to mean.

It's going to mean a large increase in casualties on both sides. It's going to mean more, not less sectarian violence. And it will end in utter failure. All this AFTER the American people have made it clear as day that they want us to get the hell out of Dodge.

And every last potential Republican nominee for President is going to be signed up favoring it.

Posted by: frankly0 on November 15, 2006 at 10:59 PM | PERMALINK

we don't have 20,000 more troops, Senator McCain, so will you please stop yapping about it?

Traitor! What about Army Group Steiner? At any momemt he will break through the Red lines and rescue Berlin? And don't forget about our secret new wonder weapons!

Posted by: Stefan on November 15, 2006 at 10:59 PM | PERMALINK

A LAST BIG PUSH! Why, that's just what Christmas bombing campaigns are for! I guess Kissinger really is calling the shots.

Posted by: paul on November 15, 2006 at 11:04 PM | PERMALINK

Hmmm. Why wouldn't the belligerents in Iraq just sit on their hands until "next fall" (i.e. a kind of "false war") and then gleefully descend into a orgy of killing once the US troops are gone?

Posted by: Soviet Canuckastani on November 15, 2006 at 11:05 PM | PERMALINK

Not only is Iraq FUBAR, so is chimp in chief.

Posted by: Ghost of Tom Joad on November 15, 2006 at 11:07 PM | PERMALINK

General John Abizaid also said to Congress that adding more troops would discourage them from taking charge of their security.
Therefore removing troops from Iraq would encourage them to take charge of their security. Of course, if they could have done something, they would have done something.

Bush has once again successfully triangulated…egbert at 10:47 PM

Bush is successful only in your wet dreams. In the meantime, tens of thousands of Iraqis die, hundreds of Americans die and billions are wasted on war profiteers and Bush's corporate supporters. Waxman is chomping at the bit.

PBS had a revealing story of the corruption, war profiteering and taxpayer ripoffs by Parsons.

Posted by: Mike on November 15, 2006 at 11:09 PM | PERMALINK

ya know, egbert, even monkeys produce shakespeare once in a while, but not you: stupidity is your metier 100% of the time.

poll after poll shows that somewhere in the teens want to send more troops.

20K troops will do nothing to achieve "victory" in iraq because there is no "victory" to achieve.

more troops will die in a pointless exercise so that asswipes like you can feel your testosterone surge.

and you call that a piece of clever "triangulation." how did you learn to type?

PS. of course, your characterization of mainstream dem thinking is inaccurate. of course, of course. where would you be without delusions?

Posted by: howard on November 15, 2006 at 11:12 PM | PERMALINK

we don't have 20,000 more troops

We might if we gave a rifle and a bottle of Trimspa to every right-wing troll who has lied and equivocated about this thing from the beginning and sent them over there.

I can tell from the passion in the comments section that they love their Iraqi brothers dearly. Well, there's no substitute for teaching democracy face to face. They can even explain the special joys of hawkish Republicanism, like the time they ate popcorn while watching the Shock and Awe bombing campaign on Fox, all the while shouting "take that you buncha crazy Osamas!"

Of course, once their bullet-riddled are pulled from the Tigris we'll just need 20,000 more....

Posted by: trex on November 15, 2006 at 11:14 PM | PERMALINK

Scares the living shit out of me that America can elect a president that's so fucking brain dead. I mean - what if there had been a REAL threat? A REAL attack by a nation like China or Russia?

I mean; really, we'd all be speaking fucking Chinese now. Bush'd probably be in exile in France, sunning himself on a beach, and enjoying the billions his buddies socked away in swiss bank accounts after selling America to China.

I mean - if we don't have some kind of decent vetting mechanism that an idiot like Bush can be President (let alone Governor, let alone CEO of an oil company) - that means that someday, another idiot is going to come along and really get us into a pickle. And maybe that idiot won't have a daddy to come and save him.

Unless Republicans stop voting for candidates solely because they think they'll piss off Liberals.

Posted by: Impeach.Remove.Convict.Punish.Justice on November 15, 2006 at 11:15 PM | PERMALINK

I mean - what if there had been a REAL threat? A REAL attack by a nation like China or Russia?

see: 9/11, My Pet Goat

Posted by: trex on November 15, 2006 at 11:18 PM | PERMALINK

All The Way With LBP!

Posted by: abe on November 15, 2006 at 11:19 PM | PERMALINK

The worst thing about this is that, by refusing to even consider a controlled withdrawal of troops, Bush & Co. are making sure that they'll be there when the civil war overruns everything, and the troops will have to retreat under fire, under ambush, with not enough support, not enough equipment, and no clear route out.

It'll make the retreat from Saigon look bloodless and orderly.

Posted by: CaseyL on November 15, 2006 at 11:22 PM | PERMALINK

I mean - if we don't have some kind of decent vetting mechanism that an idiot like Bush can be President (let alone Governor, let alone CEO of an oil company) - that means that someday, another idiot is going to come along and really get us into a pickle. And maybe that idiot won't have a daddy to come and save him.

Good point, that. It got me to thinking, no corporate board of any successful company would have ever had Shrub as a CEO, they are not anywhere near that stupid. Only the redneck fundies are that stupid.

Posted by: Snorri Sturluson on November 15, 2006 at 11:28 PM | PERMALINK

If you have relatives in the national guard make sure to send them their christmas presents early. Oh hell, just give them some money for body armor.

Posted by: rewolfrats on November 15, 2006 at 11:30 PM | PERMALINK

Frankly I'm suprised that those "senior advisers" aren't yelling at Bush: ARE YOU INSANE?

All this time that Generals, Senators and newspapers have told Bush to put more troops in Iraq, and ONLY NOW Bush decides to put more troops in Iraq? So what is McCain going to say, "okay, we'll just do a little short-term miltiary draft, tell the cannon fodder tikes that it's only for short-time, do a fast 4 week training and deployment to the Mideast, right" and still run for PrezNUT in 2008?

A real-live lead brick idea. Bush is in a hurry to start his own impeachment proceedings. Bush is some kind of stupid.

Posted by: Cheryl on November 15, 2006 at 11:31 PM | PERMALINK

So let me get this straight:

When the GOP controlled every goddamn institution in the country, including the "news", they were unable to "win."

But now, when they've been reduced to a lame duck rump, they are going to give it the old college try and pull a pony out of a hat?

GMAFB.

Posted by: craigie on November 15, 2006 at 11:33 PM | PERMALINK

BTW,, this is really going to screw McCain's plan for having the plan that isn't followed.

Posted by: rewolfrats on November 15, 2006 at 11:33 PM | PERMALINK

If we're going to acronymize it, why don't we call it the BLP (Big, last push). After all, isn't every new atrocity in Iraq just another 'blip' on the presidential radar?

Posted by: AV on November 15, 2006 at 11:36 PM | PERMALINK

But the American people find Bush's bull dog tenacity and focus on this issue intriguing.

INTRIGUING???? Sure, that's why the voters chose to increase the Republican's majorities in the House and Senate, because they all wanted to see how the final chapter turns our.

Read your history, the Last Big Push always happens in one of two cases. 1) You've got the enemy surrounded and almost out of food and ammo, or 2) You're about to be defeated.

Iraq doesn't look like case 1.

It's been three years since we invaded. Losses are mounting. The budget is breaking since we won't go on a war economy. Allies are leaving us. One last big push will win the war.

Hitler in Russia, 1944
Bush in Iraq, 2006

Posted by: tomeck on November 15, 2006 at 11:36 PM | PERMALINK

General Abizaid didn't merely say that the level of troops was sufficient. He also said he wanted more soldiers assigned to advisor duty with the Iraqi military. That could signal his desire to replace American boots with Iraqi boots in the hottest of hot spots. Stiffening the spines of raw Iraqi troops with sufficient American advisors will greatly improve their fighting capability.

It doesn't even have to be special ops troops. Conventionally trained officers and NCOs will serve well enough. It's not as if they don't have enough experience by this time.

At least, I hope that was General Abizaid's point. Preserve our troops, let the sectarian violence burn itself out and the Iraqi government get its act together. It's redeployment without redeploying.

Posted by: Trashhauler on November 15, 2006 at 11:37 PM | PERMALINK

Perhaps a more accurate phrase than 'last big push' would be 'last obscene strategic travesty'.

Posted by: Fel on November 15, 2006 at 11:38 PM | PERMALINK

The most accurate phrase would be "100k more dead".

Posted by: Disputo on November 15, 2006 at 11:42 PM | PERMALINK

Stiffening the spines of raw Iraqi troops with sufficient American advisors will greatly improve their fighting capability

Does anyone really think that a few advisors will make the difference for the Iraqi Army? Considering how many in the Iraqi Army and police are actually on the side of the insurgents, we'd better make sure our advisors have plenty of body armor on their backs.

Posted by: tomeck on November 15, 2006 at 11:49 PM | PERMALINK

Yes, disputo, you are right. But the acronym isn't quite as good. Not to be too glib about such a grim topic.

Posted by: Fel on November 15, 2006 at 11:49 PM | PERMALINK

Casey's Last Big Push.

They saw his face grow stern and cold, they saw his muscles strain, and they knew that Casey wouldn't let that ball go by again.

The sneer has fled from Casey's lip, the teeth are clenched in hate.
He pounds, with cruel violence, his bat upon the plate.

And now the pitcher holds the ball, and now he lets it go,
and now the air is shattered by the force of Casey's blow.

Oh, somewhere in this favored land the sun is shining bright.
The band is playing somewhere, and somewhere hearts are light.
And, somewhere men are laughing, and little children shout,

but there is no joy in Mudville --
mighty Casey has struck out.

Posted by: frankly0 on November 15, 2006 at 11:49 PM | PERMALINK

... no corporate board of any successful company would have ever had Shrub as a CEO, they are not anywhere near that stupid.
Posted by: Snorri Sturluson on November 15, 2006 at 11:28 PM | PERMALINK

Actually, in accounts I've read - he was selected because of his contacts with certain Saudi royals.

Gee. I wish MY daddy's friends could get me a job where all I had to do was drop a few names, and bring in a few hundred mil, and set myself up to be governor of Texas. Now THAT'S an admirable record that speaks to ALL Americans.

Posted by: Impeach.Remove.Convict.Punish.Justice on November 15, 2006 at 11:51 PM | PERMALINK

how would you like the life of a loved one to hang in the balance of a 'one last big push' strategery of a punch of incompetent, egomaniacal asshats?
Sickening, just sickening.
.

Posted by: pluege on November 15, 2006 at 11:54 PM | PERMALINK

It should be noted that General Abizaid is not the only military professional who hasn't given up on the fight. General Zinni and Maj Gen Batiste have both stated their separate opinions that pulling out of Iraq at this stage would be the worst move possible.

It's a bit curious that their complete opinions were seldom mentioned in the hype over their pre-election criticism of the war effort.

Posted by: Trashhauler on November 15, 2006 at 11:55 PM | PERMALINK

Stiffening the spines of raw Iraqi troops with sufficient American advisors will greatly improve their fighting capability.

Huh, I wonder what the American advisors have to say about this idea. What do they think about the fighting capability of the Iraqi troops?

"I wouldn't let half of them feed my dog," 1st Lt. Floyd D. Estes Jr., a former head of the police transition team, said of the Iraqi police. "I just don't trust them."

Jon Moore, the deputy team chief, said: "We don't know who the hell we're teaching: Are they police or are they militia?"

That's a pretty grim assessment. Any other opinions?

"How can we expect ordinary Iraqis to trust the police when we don't even trust them not to kill our own men?" asked Capt. Alexander Shaw, head of the police transition team of the 372nd Military Police Battalion, a Washington-based unit charged with overseeing training of all Iraqi police in western Baghdad. "To be perfectly honest, I'm not sure we're ever going to have police here that are free of the militia influence."

Hmmm, that doesn't sound good. What is their prognosis?

Sitting in the battalion's war room with four other members of his team, Moore estimated it would take 30 to 40 years before the Iraqi police could function properly, perhaps longer if the militia infiltration and corruption continue to increase. His colleagues nodded.

"It's very, very slow-moving," Estes said.

"No," said Sgt. 1st Class William T. King Jr., another member of the team. "It's moving in reverse."

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/10/30/AR2006103001323_pf.html

Well, so much for spine-stiffening. Next?

Posted by: trex on November 15, 2006 at 11:58 PM | PERMALINK

Does anyone really think that a few advisors will make the difference for the Iraqi Army?

Sadly, yes. Too. Fucking. Stupid. To. Live.

Last big push, last pig Bush.

Let's call the whole thing off.

Posted by: E. Henry Thripshaw on November 16, 2006 at 12:00 AM | PERMALINK

LBP = Latest Bullshit Proposal.

Posted by: URK on November 16, 2006 at 12:02 AM | PERMALINK

It seems that Gen. Abizaid wants to follow Bush into the big black abyss, right along with Sen. John Warner, CIA director Michael Hayden and General Maples? Gosh, I wonder which man will be the frist to lose his nerve? It's a spooky culmination toward man's land. I wouldn't follow that SOB, Bush anywhere because it's crystal clear that Bush doesn't know WHAT THE HELL he's doing.

"Get down with the sickness!"

The GOP's new bumper sticker.

Posted by: Cheryl on November 16, 2006 at 12:03 AM | PERMALINK

oops,

"first to lose his nerve? It's a spooky culmination toward NO man's land

Posted by: Cheryl on November 16, 2006 at 12:04 AM | PERMALINK

tomeck wrote:

"Does anyone really think that a few advisors will make the difference for the Iraqi Army? Considering how many in the Iraqi Army and police are actually on the side of the insurgents, we'd better make sure our advisors have plenty of body armor on their backs."
_________________

Well, yes, many people have good reason to believe that advisors (but a bit more than a few) can make a difference. They've seen it in the field. And in the Iraqi Army, at least, those taking part in sectarian violence are more likely to be Shiites. They aren't targeting Americans with the same intensity as are the Sunnis. American advisors at lower echelons will also make it more difficult for militia members in the Army to slip away for unauthorized headhunting.

Posted by: Trashhauler on November 16, 2006 at 12:05 AM | PERMALINK

Ralph Peters believes that the number of troops is less important than what they do. He thinks we need to kill the baddies. He writes:

From the Iraqi perspective, we're of less and less relevance. They're sure we'll leave. And every faction is determined to do as much damage as possible to the other before we go. Our troops have become human shields for our enemies.

To master Iraq now - if it could be done - we'd have to fight every faction except the Kurds. Are we willing to do that? Are we willing to kill mass murderers and cold-blooded executioners on the spot?

If not, we can't win, no matter what else we do.

Arrest them? We've tried that. Iraq's judges are so partisan or so terrified (or both) that they release the worst thugs within weeks - sometimes within days.

How would you like to be one of Iraq's handful of relatively honest cops knowing that any terrorist or sectarian butcher you bust is going to be back on the block before your next payday? And yeah, they know where you live.

Our "humanity" is cowardice masquerading as morality. We're protecting self-appointed religious executioners with our emphasis on a "universal code of behavior" that only exists in our fantasies. By letting the thugs run the streets, we've abandoned the millions of Iraqis who really would prefer peaceful lives and a modicum of progress.

We're blind to the fundamental moral travesty in Iraq (and elsewhere): Spare the killers in the name of human rights, and you deprive the overwhelming majority of the population of their human rights. Instead of being proud of ourselves for our "moral superiority," we should be ashamed to the depths of our souls.

Posted by: ex-liberal on November 16, 2006 at 12:18 AM | PERMALINK

Well, yes, many people have good reason to believe that advisors (but a bit more than a few) can make a difference. They've seen it in the field.

Well no, that's not what advisors in the field are seeing. I just quoted the advisors field observations, what they're actually seeing and not what you wish were true.

Not convinced? Need more corroboration?

Frustrated U.S. soldiers question the Iraqis' courage, discipline and dedication and wonder whether they will ever be able to fight on their own, much less reach the U.S. military's goal of operating independently by the fall.

"I know the party line. You know, the Department of Defense, the U.S. Army, five-star generals, four-star generals, President Bush, Donald Rumsfeld: The Iraqis will be ready in whatever time period," said 1st Lt. Kenrick Cato, 34, of Long Island, N.Y., the executive officer of McGovern's company, who sold his share in a database firm to join the military full time after the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks. "But from the ground, I can say with certainty they won't be ready before I leave. And I know I'll be back in Iraq, probably in three or four years. And I don't think they'll be ready then."

Huh. Not ready now, won't be ready in years. Anyboody other advisor care to weigh in on this issue?

Asked when he thought the Iraqi soldiers might be ready to operate independently, McGovern said: "Honestly, there's part of me that says never. There's some cultural issues that I don't think they'll ever get through."

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2005/06/09/AR2005060902245_pf.html

Well, for some reason the men who spend each day actually training and advising the Iraqis forces are pretty fatalistic about this whole endeavor, in contrast to Trashhauler who thinks it's going splendidly and has all the earmarks of a successful mission.

Hmmm. Who to believe? Who to believe?

Posted by: trex on November 16, 2006 at 12:20 AM | PERMALINK

The other day I made a smart remark about Candy Crowley and have regretted it ever since, primarily because it wasn't true and I was actually annoyed at someone else and they sort of intersected in my dope field.

I have the impression that if I were a conservative I wouldn't remember it an hour later.


So what kinds of things do conservatives remember, things they have to just get up and do something about because it really bothers them?


I think a lot of it is eliminationist rhetoric,

http://dneiwert.blogspot.com/2006/07/drums-of-elimination.html

Posted by: cld on November 16, 2006 at 12:28 AM | PERMALINK

ex-liberal, apparently done licking his wounds from the humiliation he faced at the hands of the American people, chooses to make his first post-election comment the advocation of genocide in Iraq.

Dammit, he's gonna be vindicated about not being a liberal no matter how many people have to die! Just turn morality on its head and call the Iraqis "cold-blooded killers," that will absolve him from any guilt.

This is a textbook case that showing the monstrous lengths the ego will go to protect itself from the shame and horror of being wrong.

Posted by: trex on November 16, 2006 at 12:31 AM | PERMALINK

If Bush's last big fart in the sandbox fails to get anywhere (oh, how could that happen?) they will promptly blame it on anyone who objected to it as having undermined it with their lack of resolve.

And simultaneously tell us it was all the congressional Democrats fault for not having stopped him from going ahead with it or managed to change his mind with any alternative.

Posted by: cld on November 16, 2006 at 12:32 AM | PERMALINK

Doing the same thing over and over again expecting a different result is a definition of what, what was it --? I can't remember.

Posted by: cld on November 16, 2006 at 12:35 AM | PERMALINK

We should not send in more troops, but we should not set a timeline for withdraw either. We should set specific goals for Iraq, such as the establishment of an effective banking system, and tie withdraw to those goals. Timelines are arbitrary and eliminate flexibility, but an open-ended commitment is foolish. By setting goals and then withdrawing troops based on the achievement of these goals, we would be able to claim that we are withdrawing because our goals are accomplished, not because jihadists ran us out of town.
And we must have a post-reconstruction plan for Iraq, in which we, after withdrawing troops, would continue support the Iraqi government with intelligence, economic aid, and diplomatic aid. After the U.S. withdrew from Vietnam, the Democrats cut off all aid from Saigon. The North Vietnamese army that Nixon crushed was rearmed by the Soviets, and South Vietnam did not have any economic support. As a result, Americans witnessed a nadir in Vietnam, best illustrated by the shameful sight of the helicopter lifting off the U.S. embassy in Saigon. To continue to support Iraq after a troop withdraw, and to prepare for post-reconstruction relations with and support for Iraq may make the difference as to whether or not Iraq becomes a haven for extremists or a democracy that functions despite the violence that occurs within its borders.

Posted by: brian on November 16, 2006 at 12:52 AM | PERMALINK

Look at how many Kurds died after the last Bush cut and run from Iraq.

BTW Kevin your spam filter sucks. It won't even block AL

Posted by: Ke|/|N DumB on November 16, 2006 at 12:54 AM | PERMALINK

by North Vietnamese army, I meant the North Vietnamese threat in general and their supporters in the South

Posted by: brian on November 16, 2006 at 12:54 AM | PERMALINK

So what is the deal here Kevin?

I never curse upon your site, yet for some reason those that do attack you, such as AL or American Hawk, never seen to get banned.

Tell us Kev, is AL like your alter ego sockpuppet?

like the ventriliquist trying to solve a problem the dummy asked?

Posted by: Ke|/|N DumB on November 16, 2006 at 12:57 AM | PERMALINK

trex wrote:

Well no, that's not what advisors in the field are seeing. I just quoted the advisors field observations, what they're actually seeing and not what you wish were true.

Not convinced? Need more corroboration?
______________

Well, actually, trex, your first post was about the police, not the army. And it is always easy to find somebody willing to bitch about how bad the locals are - doubtless Roman NCOs said the same thing about their auxilaries along Hadrian's wall or in the German forests. Nonetheless, it's been true that disciplined advisors have raised the quality of troops throughout history. No reason to doubt the same thing does not happen in Iraq.

Please note that I didn't say it would solve everything or that it would be easy. I'm just suggesting that it is Abizaid's plan. Note also that it is part of nearly everyone's redeployment plan to do the same thing.

Posted by: Trashhauler on November 16, 2006 at 12:58 AM | PERMALINK

trex, actually the approach recommended by Ralph Peters is designed to prevent genocide. He wants our troops to kill those who are poised to commit genocide before they get the get the chance.

Posted by: ex-liberal on November 16, 2006 at 1:02 AM | PERMALINK

Hey, K-Drum, why the sarcasm? The fact is Bush has more information than you do about what's going on in Iraq so of course he would know better than you what to do in Iraq.-Al

And you do Al?

Actually i think you could put a comic book in front of Dubya and he would think it was the course.

Posted by: Ke|/|N DumB on November 16, 2006 at 1:02 AM | PERMALINK

trex,

From the June 2005 WaPo article that you linked:

"You can't enter the mosque with weapons. We have traditions, we have honor, and we're Muslims," Dhanoun said. "You enter the mosque to pray, you don't enter the mosque with guns."

I wonder whether he has changed his mind in the past 15 months or so. Plenty of mosques are being used as armories and firing posts.

Good article.

Posted by: MatthewRMarler on November 16, 2006 at 1:04 AM | PERMALINK

I just quoted the advisors field observations, what they're actually seeing and not what you wish were true.

Is what they saw what they wrote?

Posted by: Ke|/|N DumB on November 16, 2006 at 1:05 AM | PERMALINK

If a Last Big Push had a reasonable chance of success, I would be for it. But I don't think 20,000 troops is going to make a difference.

Posted by: grytpype on November 16, 2006 at 1:07 AM | PERMALINK

Doing the same thing over and over again expecting a different result is a definition of what, what was it --? I can't remember.

I'm not sure, but I think they call it pulling a Al.
Maybe it was pull a Dumbya..

Posted by: Ke|/|N DumB on November 16, 2006 at 1:08 AM | PERMALINK

Maybe if the 20,000 troops all shout at Bush at the same time, the message might get through.

Posted by: craigie on November 16, 2006 at 1:10 AM | PERMALINK

If a Last Big Push had a reasonable chance of success, I would be for it. But I don't think 20,000 troops is going to make a difference.

The last big suck. Bush is gonna bleed the middle class dry with his billion dollar war for the MIC and indebt AL.

Posted by: Ke|/|N DumB on November 16, 2006 at 1:10 AM | PERMALINK

Well, actually, trex, your first post was about the police, not the army.

Well, actually, Trashhauler, the "police" in Iraq are armed forces. They have mechanized units, commando units, anti-insurgency units, and outnumber the actual army by about 40%. They're the ones primarily responsible for keeping order and failing at it, by the way.

How you could fail to know that...I just don't know.

And it is always easy to find somebody willing to bitch about how bad the locals are - doubtless Roman NCOs said the same thing about their auxilaries along Hadrian's wall or in the German forests.

We're not talking about a couple of guys bitching about how Iraqis won't spit shine their shoes or salute properly, which you'd know if you bothered to read the articles I linked to. We're talking about the very commanders in charge of putting this whole thing together saying that they don't even trust the Iraqis not to kill them, and that they don't think this is ever going to work.

See the difference?

Posted by: trex on November 16, 2006 at 1:16 AM | PERMALINK

If a Last Big Push had a reasonable chance of success, I would be for it. But I don't think 20,000 troops is going to make a difference.

Me either, unless it was the GOP then it might make a difference, Here.

Posted by: Ke|/|N DumB on November 16, 2006 at 1:17 AM | PERMALINK

Well, actually, trex, your first post was about the police, not the army.

Well, actually, Trashhauler, the "police" in Iraq are armed forces. They have mechanized units, commando units, anti-insurgency units, and outnumber the actual army by about 40%

The 'armed' Police outnumber which Army?

Posted by: Ke|/|N DumB on November 16, 2006 at 1:22 AM | PERMALINK

He wants our troops to kill those who are poised to commit genocide before they get the get the chance.

Yes I know, we need to destroy the village in order to save it.

Question: just who are "those who are poised to commit genocide?" How do you know someone is about to commit genocide? Do their pupils dilate? Do they have a sweaty upper lip?

If you're talking about just slaughtering the people doing the killing now, then you're talking about the Sunni AND the Shia -- you know, roughly 80% of the population. And since without a genocidometer there's no way to determine who's actually doing the killing, you're going to have to kill all of them.

So you're willing to commit genocide on 80% of the population, roughly 24 million people, in order to prevent some genocide you've made up in your head? Or is there some piece of the puzzle missing?

Here's how I currently understand the ex-liberal Plan for Winning Iraq:

1) Kill anybody who you think may commit genocide one day.

2) ?

3) Peace and prosperity for the five guys left.

Brilliant plan, it really is.

Posted by: trex on November 16, 2006 at 1:27 AM | PERMALINK

We're talking about the very commanders in charge of putting this whole thing together saying that they don't even trust the Iraqis not to kill them, and that they don't think this is ever going to work.

The preferred method of democritization,[Peace Operation] is not force. What did they think was gonna happen parades and flowers?

Oh crap, they DID say that didn't they?


Posted by: Ke|/|N DumB on November 16, 2006 at 1:27 AM | PERMALINK

ex-liberal said "He wants our troops to kill those who are poised to commit genocide before they get the get the chance."

ex-liberal -- I'm not sure you are allowed to ask for our troops to kill GW BUSH.

Posted by: x-liberal@asylum.nut on November 16, 2006 at 1:48 AM | PERMALINK

last, big push

I can help!

Posted by: stool-softener on November 16, 2006 at 2:05 AM | PERMALINK

Question: "just who are "those who are poised to commit genocide?"

The civil war/genocide MYTH has been created by Bush's mob.

The myth has been created by paying vicious thugs, to kill multitudes of both Sunnis and Shiites, and dump the bodies. Then they pin the blame on the other side.

These American paid killers often torture these poor farmers just for the media SHOCK value (not to find out what seed they planted in the spring, as some claim).

This allows the vicious Americans to claim that the people doing most of the killing (ie, the Americans) need to stay "to prevent killing/genocide."

Posted by: x-liberal@asylum.nut on November 16, 2006 at 2:07 AM | PERMALINK

trex wrote:

Well, actually, Trashhauler, the "police" in Iraq are armed forces. They have mechanized units, commando units, anti-insurgency units, and outnumber the actual army by about 40%. They're the ones primarily responsible for keeping order and failing at it, by the way.

How you could fail to know that...I just don't know.
_____________________

trex, there is a difference in operational doctrine between army manuever units and police (constabulary) units. Different training, different duties. In addition, the police are under the suspect Interior Ministry, while the army is under the Defense Ministry.

While the police may claim to have various special units of one sort or the other, they have not received the same training as army battalions. As far as police armor goes, this article would seem to dispute that:

"Gen. Casey is also expected to recommend equipping Iraqi security forces with more heavily armored vehicles — police now ride in pick-up trucks — and heavier weapons."

http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2006/10/30/eveningnews/main2138300.shtml

I won't dispute your numbers, though I recall that the entire Iraqi army only has one fully equipped armor battalion, so I doubt they've spared much for the police.

The critical (and very valid) commments in the articles you posted were from the enlisted and lower ranking officers acting as trainers. Though doubtless they are correct in part, they do not change the dynamic of how advisors affect less experienced troops.

Rather than anecdotal comments, I'm going by historical examples of how the presence of millitary advisors affect local cadres. Such duty is always disliked by those who must perform it - heck, I even disliked merely carrying foreign troops on my aircraft. And I've shared the same low opinion of Middle Eastern military proficiency as most American military types. It doesn't change the fact that historically most lesser units perform better with professional advisors.

Trex, I'm not in search of a pissing contest here. We don't know the details of Abizaid's plan. And it might not work within the time he has left. It took foreign advisors over four years to turn American troops into soldiers who wouldn't break at the first volley. There are many other examples, as well as counter examples where local levies failed to hold up their end. I've been studying military affairs for 37 years, so I could probably dig up examples of both.

But it's really a moot point. I'm just saying that Abizaid's plan to increase the use of advisors is to be expected, given what he's dealing with and what his orders are.

Posted by: Trashhauler on November 16, 2006 at 2:25 AM | PERMALINK

Bunch of loser pussies...

Posted by: Mike on November 16, 2006 at 4:52 AM | PERMALINK

well its too late baby, now its too late...

Posted by: carole king on November 16, 2006 at 5:01 AM | PERMALINK

Excuse me if I think McCain has a better grasp on the capabilities of our troops than Col. Drum. I've written before that if we thought this war was important we could wring out at least 100,000 more troops from the featherbedding MOS's that the military has always factored into their staffing levels. This would be in addition to the many, many units on duty from Greenland to Panama to Diego Garcia that have not been affected by this war.

Posted by: minion of rove on November 16, 2006 at 6:06 AM | PERMALINK

For those chickenhawks out there unfamiliar with the acronym, MOS stands for military occupational specialty - your job classification if you are enlisted.

Posted by: minion on November 16, 2006 at 6:18 AM | PERMALINK

"The myth has been created by paying vicious thugs, to kill multitudes of both Sunnis and Shiites, and dump the bodies. Then they pin the blame on the other side."

The last time something like this occurred was when the Jews were trying to goad Hitler into attacking Poland.

Jewish thugs massacred ethnic Germans in Poland (in what used to be Germany a few years before) and blamed the Polish government.

Hitler, complained bitterly about these massacres, but most of the media ignored them.

In the end, this and the Polish corridor question, lead to Hitler taking the bait.

Posted by: BeenThereDoneThat on November 16, 2006 at 6:57 AM | PERMALINK

Well Done. This thread has the best, snarkiest, most dead-on comments I've seen in a long time. Great work. (Except, of course, for the jew-baiting bastard who won't go away.)

Ought to be archived with the greatest-hits before it gets overrun with chinese comment spam.

Posted by: Best Comments in a while on November 16, 2006 at 7:54 AM | PERMALINK

So many similarities.

The 1,000 year reign ending in 12 years.
The Contract on America dying after 12 years.

The "last big push" called the Battle of the Bulge.
The "last big push" in Iraq.

As, for the most part, with the exception of the SS groups, the German soldiers were highly trained, disciplined and skilled fighters. Only their leaders were fucked up.
Hmmm, so many similarties - troops who are highly skilled, disciplined and well trained by tough NCO cadres, but their leaders, up to and including the cINc are truly fucked up.

Posted by: thethirdPaul on November 16, 2006 at 9:44 AM | PERMALINK

I've written before that if we thought this war was important we could wring out at least 100,000 more troops from the featherbedding MOS's that the military has always factored into their staffing levels. This would be in addition to the many, many units on duty from Greenland to Panama to Diego Garcia that have not been affected by this war.

Obviously, then, Bush and Cheney must not think this war is important since they haven't done anything of the sort.

Plus, of course, we could wring out at least one more soldier if you'd enlist....

*sound of feet running. A door slams. Outside, we hear a car kick into gear and drive off at high speed.*

Uh, Minion? Minion, you still around....?

Posted by: Stefan on November 16, 2006 at 10:02 AM | PERMALINK

Last Big Push = Light at the End of the Tunnel

Same old shit.

Particularly since the light at the end of the tunnel tends to be an oncoming freight train.

"Usually, terrible things that are done with the excuse that progress requires them are not really progress at all, but just terrible things."
- Russell Baker

Posted by: CFShep on November 16, 2006 at 10:03 AM | PERMALINK

And all of those feather bedding guys in the 106th who were caught in the "last big push", er, think Kurt Vonnegut.

Clerk, cooks, supply, off your cots and grab your co--, er, carbines and off to the front, er, the front surrounds you.

So happy to see the old War Criminal, Henry K, making his presence known to the two WCs in the White House.

If only Saddam could be stranded forever on a deserted isle with Henry K, Shrub, Cheney and Rumdumb - Could clear a lot of brush together - truly a bi-partisan moment.

Posted by: thethirdPaul on November 16, 2006 at 10:16 AM | PERMALINK

waist deep in the big muddy

Posted by: benjoya on November 16, 2006 at 10:55 AM | PERMALINK

This would be in addition to the many, many units on duty from Greenland to Panama to Diego Garcia that have not been affected by this war.

Just how many units do you think we actually have in Greenland, Panama and Diego Garcia? Not too many, actually. The big overseas US forces have always been in Germany and Korea, and both those areas have seen their troops rotate in and out of Iraq multiple times already. The truth is, there isn't one American combat unit that isn't either in Iraq, on its way to Iraq, or recovering after being in Iraq.

Posted by: Stefan on November 16, 2006 at 11:00 AM | PERMALINK

We have very few people in Greenland - mostly airfield and transportation specialists.

We've had no troops in Panama since (IIRC) 1998.

The folks on Diego Garcia are deeply involved in the Afghanistan and Iraq campaigns already.

We could pull all of our troops out of Korea and Okinawa, but our allies in the region might complain a bit.

Posted by: Trashhauler on November 16, 2006 at 11:06 AM | PERMALINK

The US occupation of Iraq will be the biggest issue of the 2016 presidential election.

Posted by: Hostile on November 16, 2006 at 11:08 AM | PERMALINK

The idea that 20,000 more troops constitutes a "last big push" is pathetic. A proper LBP would involve hundreds of thousands of troops, the overthrow of the current government of Iraq and suspension of its constitution, and the imposition of a strict occupation regime patterned upon Japan after WWII. As soon as the lights stay on in Baghdad for 24 hours, Iraqis will shower the occupiers with rose petals, and democratic institutions will grow rapidly under the occupation's shelter.

But our policymakers have no intention of doing this. Therefore, instead of wasting a little more in the way of American lives and treasure, we should just get out of the way of Iraq's mutually-assured self-destruction and redeploy American forces to locations from which protection of American interests can feasibly be launched.

Posted by: RonG on November 16, 2006 at 11:41 AM | PERMALINK

"We should not send in more troops, but we should not set a timeline for withdraw either. We should set specific goals for Iraq, such as the establishment of an effective banking system, and tie withdraw to those goals."

So what do we do if the goals are never acheived?
Stay forever?

That's why you put a timeline on it also. We can always change the timeline if we want, but having specific plans makes it more difficult for politicians like bush to pretend they haven't failed.

Posted by: jefff on November 16, 2006 at 1:41 PM | PERMALINK

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