Editore"s Note
Tilting at Windmills

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November 27, 2006
By: Kevin Drum

CARBON DIOXIDE UPDATE....The latest on global warming:

The rise in humanity's emissions of carbon dioxide has accelerated sharply, according to a new analysis.

The Global Carbon Project says that emissions were rising by less than 1% annually up to the year 2000, but are now rising at 2.5% per year.

...."At these rates, it certainly sounds like we'll end up towards the high end of the emission scenarios considered by the IPCC," commented Myles Allen from Oxford University, one of Britain's leading climate modellers.

Well, that should solve the problem of vote count foulups in Florida, anyway.

Kevin Drum 10:59 PM Permalink | Trackbacks | Comments (65)
 
Comments

"Well, that should solve the problem of vote count foulups in Florida, anyway."

*rimshot!*

Posted by: urkel on November 27, 2006 at 11:02 PM | PERMALINK

The Global Carbon Project says that emissions were rising by less than 1% annually up to the year 2000, but are now rising at 2.5% per year.

Can I blame Bush for this too? Because there are no coincidences.

Posted by: craigie on November 27, 2006 at 11:06 PM | PERMALINK

But why worry about carbon, the basis of life, when we can have an armageddon and people wafting off into space while those durn liberals get flash fried and left behind?

Posted by: Zep Tepi on November 27, 2006 at 11:09 PM | PERMALINK

Can I blame Bush for this too? Because there are no coincidences.

No, but you can the large amount of depleted uranium floating about over globe!

Posted by: Zep Tepi on November 27, 2006 at 11:10 PM | PERMALINK

I've invested in land in the Yukon for my hot house tomato farm and with all the money I'll make, I'll purchase beachfront property in Lawrence, Kansas.

Posted by: Macswain on November 27, 2006 at 11:16 PM | PERMALINK

Here is a serious issue that deserves real thought. Unfortunately the pundit class has decided that only liberals "believe in" global warming and only liberals want to do something about it. Conservatives don't "believe in" global warming and don't think we should make any effort to reduce the emissions of green house gases.

In the collective minds of the beltway media/pundit class--global warming, Al Gore, liberal v. expanding gasoline consumption, Dick Cheney, conservative.

This particular problem, like most of the problems we face, can be examined objectively. All the subjective liberal, centrist, conservative bs just gets in the way.

Posted by: Ron Byers on November 27, 2006 at 11:23 PM | PERMALINK

Are the diebold machines in low lying areas?

Posted by: B on November 27, 2006 at 11:25 PM | PERMALINK

Last week's New Yorker had a very troubling article about the increasing carbon dioxide accumulating in the oceans, changing the ph to acidic.

Posted by: Hostile on November 27, 2006 at 11:26 PM | PERMALINK

If you think about it, as the warmer part of the year grows increasingly longer so will the grass -- giving people the need to mow even further into the season and throwing ever more carbon into the air.

Vicious cycle.

Posted by: mow on November 27, 2006 at 11:27 PM | PERMALINK

Carbon Dioxide is life, bitches.

Posted by: enozinho (wetorture.com) on November 27, 2006 at 11:27 PM | PERMALINK

Ron Byers: This particular problem, like most of the problems we face, can be examined objectively.

No. In current political use, "Conservative" is just another name for "Postmodernist". Objective reality does not exist for such people.

Posted by: alex on November 27, 2006 at 11:32 PM | PERMALINK

If it wasn't for that other carbon cycle, that long one, the geological one, we wouldn't have any problem. The Biological, or short, carbon cycle is pretty self balancing. But when the carbon that has been trapped by geology (oil, coal) is released into the atmosphere - well, guys, it's kinda a closed system and we have a whole lot of extra carbon trapped in our atmosphere. And that isn't fantasy. That's physics.

Posted by: Perpetually Inquisitive on November 27, 2006 at 11:41 PM | PERMALINK

Well, that should solve the problem of vote count foulups in Florida, anyway.

I don't want Katherine Harris moving inland. Seal the borders.

Posted by: Oregonian on November 27, 2006 at 11:44 PM | PERMALINK

No. In current political use, "Conservative" is just another name for "Postmodernist". Objective reality does not exist for such people.

Posted by: alex on November 27, 2006 at 11:32 PM

I never said it "would." I said it "could" be examined objectively.

Don't think for a moment that "Conservatives" are the only people who don't examine things objectively. At times we all fall into that trap. The snakeoil salesmen among us count on that facit of human nature.

Posted by: Ron Byers on November 27, 2006 at 11:46 PM | PERMALINK

Florida has enough bugs and critters and epidemiological activity that we ought to just be able to seal off the entire state...

Posted by: Perpetually Inquisitive on November 27, 2006 at 11:47 PM | PERMALINK

Oh Goody. Tom Waites is on Letterman tonight. Look for a spike of sucicides on tomorrow mornings news, cause Waites is definitely music to slit your wrists to.

Posted by: Perpetually Inquisitive on November 27, 2006 at 11:51 PM | PERMALINK

Well, I'm gonna call it a night. Nobody will be in school tomorrow anyway; since it's deer season, so I'll just do some crossword puzzles, but they pay me to show up.

Thanks for letting me come visit your playground.

Posted by: Perpetually Inquisitive on November 27, 2006 at 11:54 PM | PERMALINK

This result tends to confirm that we are not going to solve the global warming problem by cutting carbon emissions. Countries have been unwilling to make the sacrifices demanded by the Kyoto accord. Even if they had, the carbon dioxide would still be increasing.

We have two realistic choices. Science might find a way to cool the planet that's less costly than huge cuts in carbon emissions. Or, we will have to learn to live on a warmer planet. E.g., we should learn better levee-building skills.

Posted by: ex-liberal on November 27, 2006 at 11:56 PM | PERMALINK

Ron Byers: I never said it "would." I said it "could" be examined objectively.

Methinks you take the joke too seriously. The idea of Conservatives as Postmodernists just struck me as funny (hey, I'm a riot at parties).

Posted by: alex on November 27, 2006 at 11:56 PM | PERMALINK

Can I blame Bush for this too? Because there are no coincidences.

First blame yourself Craigie. As to Bush, no, it's not his fault he refused to believe the science behind global warming. Cheney and Rove told him it didn't poll well with the base, so why should he be to blame?

Posted by: tomeck on November 27, 2006 at 11:57 PM | PERMALINK

ex-liberal: we should learn better levee-building skills

Good idea. How much do you think it will cost to build levees around the southern third of Florida?

Posted by: alex on November 28, 2006 at 12:01 AM | PERMALINK

Here's a great link for those who are interested - he has an actual solution, that appears practical and realistic. So it will never happen.

Posted by: craigie on November 28, 2006 at 12:03 AM | PERMALINK

Science might find a way to cool the planet that's less costly than huge cuts in carbon emissions.

Well, it's not too late for a thermo-nuclear exchange with one or more rogue states.

A little touch of nuclear winter would cool things a bit.

Posted by: Keith G on November 28, 2006 at 12:09 AM | PERMALINK

I'll remind you via paraphrase the attitude of bushiekins base: Why should we care about the verdict of history; we'll all be dead by then. Quite frankly this is their attitude toward every mess that's been created (the war, the deficit) or worsened (global warming, expensive health care, the debt, income gap, government corruption) on bushiekins watch.
It's the foundation of the sociopathy of the selfish: "I've got mine, so fuck you!"
EXXON-Mobile is happy.

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Posted by: chfang on November 28, 2006 at 12:15 AM | PERMALINK

alex: How much do you think it will cost to build levees around the southern third of Florida?

The point is, we (the US) can build a levee around FL. The US cannot cut world CO2 emissions. I believe the US has been doing well at controlling net CO2 (due to increase in our forested area), but IMHO we will never get full world cooperation. We can't even get cooperation to act against terrorists and terrorist states.

Posted by: ex-liberal on November 28, 2006 at 12:17 AM | PERMALINK

Or, we will have to learn to live on a warmer planet. E.g., we should learn better levee-building skills.
Posted by: ex-liberal

is there a way to somehow cut off the southern states and just let the gulf drown them all? ... although, I guess ethically, we'd be obligated to issue visas to the bluse-staters lost in the red sea.

we should issue them liberally.

Posted by: Nads on November 28, 2006 at 12:18 AM | PERMALINK

Forests schmorests. We could forest every square inch of the planet and still not neutralize the geologically-freed CO2 we are spewing into the air.

Posted by: Perpetually Inquisitive on November 28, 2006 at 12:34 AM | PERMALINK

I'm just a lowly middle-school science teacher in the middle of nowhere. I don't have all the answers to the test I'll give next week, let alone the problems facing the universe.

But I'm not delusional, either. Anyone who thinks we can just "adapt to a warmer planet" has gotta be on a respirator cause there is no way the medula oblongata is still functioning on that retard.

Posted by: Perpetually Inquisitive on November 28, 2006 at 12:39 AM | PERMALINK

The point is, we (the US) can build a levee around FL.

False.

Bug Bunny cannot saw it free from the mainland, either.

increase in our forested area

False.

Forested area in the U.S. has been in decline for sixty years. The recent tiny "increase" in forestation has been due to reclassification of what constitutes a forest by the Bush propaganda bureau. Further, all forests are not created equal: the old growth forests that have been lost possessed a much greater capacity to absorb carbon than the new growth.

We can't even get cooperation to act against terrorists and terrorist states.

False.

Governments around the world have been cooperating on intelligence and arrests of terrorists for decades. Apparently you've been too busy watching Loony Tunes to notice.

Posted by: trex on November 28, 2006 at 12:46 AM | PERMALINK

I hate to cite Wiki pedia as a source for anything, but they have a couple of clear paragraphs about that carbon cycle I've been yammering about:

The carbon cycle is the biogeochemical cycle by which carbon is exchanged between the biosphere, geosphere, hydrosphere and atmosphere of the Earth (other astronomical objects may have similar carbon cycles, but nothing is yet known about them).

The cycle is usually thought of as four major reservoirs of carbon interconnected by pathways of exchange. The reservoirs are the atmosphere, the terrestrial biosphere (which usually includes freshwater systems and non-living organic material, such as soil carbon), the oceans (which includes dissolved inorganic carbon and living and non-living marine biota), and the sediments (which includes fossil fuels). The annual movements of carbon, the carbon exchanges between reservoirs, occur because of various chemical, physical, geological, and biological processes. The ocean contains the largest active pool of carbon near the surface of the Earth, but the deep ocean part of this pool does not rapidly exchange with the atmosphere.

The global carbon budget is the balance of the exchanges (incomes and losses) of carbon between the carbon reservoirs or between one specific loop (e.g., atmosphere - biosphere) of the carbon cycle. An examination of the carbon budget of a pool or reservoir can provide information about whether the pool or reservoir is functioning as a source or sink for carbon dioxide. As you can see, there is no mechanism to balance the geologic carbon we are freeing.

I wouldn't mind people having opinions that disagree with me if they just applied a smidgen of brainpower, used a little common sense (why the hell do they call it that?) and learned what the fuck they were talking about before they open their yaps.

Posted by: Perpetually Inquisitive on November 28, 2006 at 12:59 AM | PERMALINK

Oops. Blockquote failed me. Only the first and last graphs are mine.

Posted by: Perpetually Inquisitive on November 28, 2006 at 1:01 AM | PERMALINK

MacSwain is going to buy beach property in Lawrence, Kansas.

Well, up on Mt Oread, they will have to change the lyrics from "High above the golden valley, (ripped off from Cornell's Cayuga's waters), glorius to view" to:

"High above the oceans's waters, rancid and fishless to view, stands our noble Alma Mater, Hail to old KU." - Somewhere a Rock will Chalk.

Posted by: thethirdPaul on November 28, 2006 at 1:31 AM | PERMALINK

Global warming is releasing hundreds of years of accumulated mercury from the wetlands of the northern hemishphere,

http://www.scienceagogo.com/news/20060722011834data_trunc_sys.shtml

The findings indicate that the drier conditions brought about by a warming climate will cause the soil to relinquish its hold on hundreds of years of mercury accumulation, sending that mercury back into the air at levels up to 15 times greater than originally calculated. "While peat lands are typically viewed as very wet and stagnant places, they do burn in continental regions, especially late in the season when water tables are depressed," explained Turetsky. "When peat lands burn, they can release a huge amount of mercury that overwhelms regional atmospheric emissions. Our study is new in that it looks to the soil record to tell us what happens when peat soil burns, soil that has been like a sponge for mercury for a long time."

Posted by: cld on November 28, 2006 at 1:36 AM | PERMALINK

I'll leave it to you all to explain to your grandchildren why you needed a Ford Extinction to drive half a mile to the gym after a day on your riding mower...

Posted by: mother nature on November 28, 2006 at 3:00 AM | PERMALINK

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Posted by: 手机图片 on November 28, 2006 at 4:49 AM | PERMALINK

We will just evolve to a different species which will adapt to this new warmer climate. What do you say - how about all of us just plan our punctuated equilibrium the moment all this warm stuff comes to get us.

Did it snow in Florida recently? Must be that global warming thing. All those hurricanes this year too must have... oh the hurricanes have been less than any year on record? It must be because global warming is forcing them to stop.

Well gotta go get my global warming shovel so I can be prepared to move all that global warming off my driveway.

Yeah all this stuff really bothers me.

Posted by: Orwell on November 28, 2006 at 8:53 AM | PERMALINK

"Orwell" once again strives to prove that ignorance is strength.

Posted by: Gregory on November 28, 2006 at 9:06 AM | PERMALINK

ex-liberal:

Global Warming is not an either/or scenario. It's true that some worldwide temperature increase is a foregone conclusion. But just how much the temperature increases still hinges on carbon emissions and the like.

Posted by: keptsimple on November 28, 2006 at 9:08 AM | PERMALINK

I have to admit that I'm never sure if Orwell is a parody. If he is, he's a damn sight more subtle than most of ours.

And step off Tom Waits, damn it!

Posted by: shortstop on November 28, 2006 at 9:19 AM | PERMALINK

>>It's the foundation of the sociopathy of the selfish: "I've got mine, so fuck you!"
EXXON-Mobile is happy.
Posted by: joe

Makes 'Apres moi, le deluge.' seems so quaint.

But look, Exxon-Mobil may be happy but I'd have to guess Mobile will be rather less so.

Posted by: CFShep on November 28, 2006 at 10:06 AM | PERMALINK

Orrrwellll.... Orrrrrrrwellllllll!
Your strawman army awaits your command!
We are straw. We are strong.
You made us. You will defeat us.
We exist to serve you.
We exist to make you look smart.
Command us!

Posted by: Orwell's Strawman Army on November 28, 2006 at 10:06 AM | PERMALINK

But look, Exxon-Mobil may be happy but I'd have to guess Mobile will be rather less so.

Oh, sweet Jesus, that was good!

Posted by: shortstop on November 28, 2006 at 10:09 AM | PERMALINK

Global Warming + Peak oil = problem solved.

What's the bad news? Thirty years from now, most people will be walking to work.

The good news is that should help people lose weight.

Posted by: Peak Oil on November 28, 2006 at 10:18 AM | PERMALINK

I command my army to drive SUVs 356 days a year! We shall destroy this planet in a million years at that rate! But woe how the volcanos burst forth with more emissions to destroy the earth.
Woe to the cows and pigs who put out gases which spew to make man extinct.

Only the completely arrogant person believes that humans could destroy an entire planet. We couldn't do it even if we tried.

Typical liberals on global warming: Everything is going to be destroyed and we are to blame! Hurricanes! Floods! Earthquakes! It's all our fault! Sounds like the progressives and Christians have a lot in common. Man's sin is the reason for the crumbling earth. Glad we could come to agreement on that.

Heres the liberal solution: Get off the planet now! Get our people out of there because we are just making the earth hate us all the more.

Now my army, drive forth in your Suburbans and NASCAR racing vehicals.

Posted by: Orwell on November 28, 2006 at 10:45 AM | PERMALINK

Nah, Orwell, we're not going to "destroy" the planet.

We will be making it very uncomfortable for human beings to live on, however.

And Mama Nature doesn't give a damn whether we're here or not.

Posted by: grumpy realist on November 28, 2006 at 10:51 AM | PERMALINK

Orrrrrwelllll, you stupid fuuuuuuck.
Don't you even understand what we are for?
We are for destroying!
Stand tall and destroy us!
Prove how mighty you are!

Posted by: Orwell's Strawman Army on November 28, 2006 at 11:10 AM | PERMALINK

And Mama Nature doesn't give a damn whether we're here or not.
Posted by: grumpy realist

She's got 130 million years invested into the cockroach in any case. 'Bout the only viable species we look to leave in our wake.

Posted by: CFShep on November 28, 2006 at 11:19 AM | PERMALINK

Perhaps if Talk Radio can sign on, drop its hatemongering for a moment or two and get its vast listener base to think about a new idea for a change, maybe the other half of the US population might get onboard with cutting back on carbon emissions.
It is getting really tiresome to make sacrifices and pay more to live Green, when the guy next to you still drives his monster truck and laughs as Limbaugh blames liberals for every problem in the world.
Talk Radio keeps this country split with its hate retoric. Why can't Limbaugh and those other talk jocks use their airtime for purposes other than dispensing negative opinions about people who don't think like them.

Posted by: Jill on the Hill on November 28, 2006 at 11:29 AM | PERMALINK

The republican't barking point goes like this:
1 - Global warming doesn't exist.
2 - Even if it does exist, you can't prove it is caused by humans.
3 - Even if it does exist and you can prove it is caused by humans, you can't prove it is a bad thing.

Posted by: Peter on November 28, 2006 at 11:42 AM | PERMALINK

We will just evolve to a different species which will adapt to this new warmer climate.
Posted by: Orwell on November 28, 2006 at 8:53 AM | PERMALINK

Heh - probably Black People.

The republican't barking point goes like this:
1 - Global warming doesn't exist.
2 - Even if it does exist, you can't prove it is caused by humans.
3 - Even if it does exist and you can prove it is caused by humans, you can't prove it is a bad thing.
Posted by: Peter on November 28, 2006 at 11:42 AM | PERMALINK

read ex-liberal's posts:

4 - even if it does exist, and even if Americans could stop spewing carbon, those nasty terrorists in other nations won't, and then their economies will do well because they're burning petroleum, and ours will suck, because we aren't, and then they'll buy more guns that we have, and take us over, and make us burn more petroleum.

What's the bad news? Thirty years from now, most people will be walking to work.
Posted by: Peak Oil on November 28, 2006 at 10:18 AM | PERMALINK

Probably not. 30 years from now, most people won't have jobs anyway.

Posted by: impeach.remove.convict.punish.justice on November 28, 2006 at 12:15 PM | PERMALINK

And, Peter, the fourth point is that people who care about it are crazynutty enviro-terrorists who like trees better than people. And by people, they mean corporations. So shut up and sing! (Cough, cough.)

Posted by: Kenji on November 28, 2006 at 12:15 PM | PERMALINK

Why can't Limbaugh and those other talk jocks use their airtime for purposes other than dispensing negative opinions about people who don't think like them.

Because that medium exists only for ego inflation, the fomenting of bigotry and anger, and assigning blame to others for the listeners' own problems. This allows the talk jocks and their companies to make money off the aforementioned assignation of blame while shaping opinion in ways that assist moneyed interests in this country.

You make an astute obersvation that the infrastructure exists for it do something productive and helpful, but that's likely never to happen. People listen to hate radio in the first place to avoid doing something productive and helpful while at the same time indulging in fantasies of superiority.

And I suspect that much of the talk radio audience cares little about mitigating environmental damage, even were they ever to understand or admit that it's going to negatively impact their own lives.

Posted by: trex on November 28, 2006 at 12:22 PM | PERMALINK

Just as an aside, here in SE Michigan where it's normally snowing intermittently by now, the temperature yesterday was a balmy 61 degrees -- 20 degrees above the average for this time of year and just a few degrees shy of the record.

Posted by: trex on November 28, 2006 at 12:40 PM | PERMALINK

Probably not. 30 years from now, most people won't have jobs anyway.
Posted by: impeach.remove.convict.punish.justice

Wow. Here I'd have gone for 30 months from now.

http://www.nytimes.com/2006/11/28/business/28tax.html?ref=business
04 Income in U.S. Was Below 2000 Level

By DAVID CAY JOHNSTON
Published: November 28, 2006

'Still, those very top households, which include about 300,000 Americans, reported significantly more pretax income combined than the poorest 120 million Americans earned in 2004, the data show. This was a sharp change from 1979, the oldest year examined by the I.R.S., when the thin slice at the top received about one-third of the total income of the big group at the bottom.'

'The next best-off group, the fifth of Americans on the 60th to 80th rungs of the income ladder, averaged 2 cents more income in 2004 for each dollar they earned in 1979.

Only those in the top 5 percent had significant gains. The average income of those on the 95th to 99th rungs of the income ladder rose by 53 percent, almost twice the average rate.

A third of the entire national increase in reported income went to the top 1 percent and more than half of that went to the top tenth of 1 percent, whose average incomes soared so much that for each dollar, adjusted for inflation, that they had in 1979 they had $3.48 in 2004.'

'Because of cuts in the tax rate, the top tenth of 1 percent did even better than their rising incomes alone would suggest. For each inflation-adjusted dollar they had after tax in 1979 they had $3.94 left after taxes in 2004.

For the bottom 60 percent, their income taxes were so small in 1979 that the cuts did little to change their after-tax incomes. While their pretax average incomes fell by a nickel on the dollar from 1979 to 2004, their after-tax incomes fell by a fraction of a penny less.'


Posted by: CFShep on November 28, 2006 at 12:41 PM | PERMALINK

Point 5 - Even if Global Warming does exist (evidence does seem to point to that) and you can prove it is partly caused by humanity, and you can prove that it is a bad thing, AND you can get the world to do something about it........it doesnt mean that global warming will stop. There is no way we can prove that any method we use will stop it. And it will be a hard sell to get countries to spend 20% of GNP to try and fix something that we may not be able to fix. Global warming *does* occur naturally as well. How do we stop the natural cycle - even if we can stop man's contribution to it?

Posted by: Spock on November 28, 2006 at 4:09 PM | PERMALINK

Spock wrote: "Even if Global Warming does exist (evidence does seem to point to that) and you can prove it is partly caused by humanity, and you can prove that it is a bad thing ..."

All of that has been proven already. Global warming is occurring -- rapidly, at a speed unprecedented in thousands if not millions of years. All of the observed, rapid, unprecedented warming of the last century is due to human activities which emit large amounts of CO2 and methane into the atmosphere, primarily from the burning of fossil fuels. And it is clearly a "bad thing" since it is already manifesting in the form of extreme weather events, heat waves, droughts, rapid sea level rise, over 150,000 human deaths per year according to the WHO's conservative estimate, mass extinctions of species, and is triggering feedback loops (e.g. the melting of polar ice, the release of methane and carbon from frozen soils, etc) that will worsen and accelerate the anthropogenic warming that is already occurring. All of this has been firmly established by science. Claims to the contrary are fossil fuel industry-funded bullshit.

Spock wrote: "And it will be a hard sell to get countries to spend 20% of GNP to try and fix something that we may not be able to fix."

A report recently produced by the British government, written under the leadership of Sir Nicholas Stern of the London School of Economics, a former chief economist of the World Bank, estimated the cost of dealing with global warming at ONE PERCENT of annual world economic consumption, and the cost of failing to do so at many times that. The UK government's chief scientist Sir David King commented on the Stern report that "All of [Stern's] detailed modelling out to the year 2100 is going to indicate first of all that if we don't take global action we are going to see a massive downturn in global economies ... the kind of downturn that has not been seen since the great depression and the two world wars."

Spock wrote: "Global warming *does* occur naturally as well. How do we stop the natural cycle - even if we can stop man's contribution to it?"

The currently observed rapid and extreme global warming is unprecedented and it is not related to any "natural cycle". There is absolutely ZERO scientific evidence that any "natural cycle" has anything to do with the currently observed warming. There is overwhelming evidence that the currently observed warming is entirely due to human activities which are rapidly and dramatically increasing the concentration of atmospheric "greenhouse gases".

You certainly packed a lot of misinformation into one short paragraph.


Posted by: SecularAnimist on November 28, 2006 at 4:59 PM | PERMALINK

One of the goals in the Millennium Development Goals is to achieve environment sustainability. We should use this information as a sign to address the Millennium Development Goals as well as to end poverty.

Posted by: Ashley on November 28, 2006 at 5:24 PM | PERMALINK

One of the goals in the Millennium Development Goals is to achieve environment sustainability. We should use this information as a sign to address the Millennium Development Goals as well as to end poverty.

Posted by: flagrl118 on November 28, 2006 at 5:26 PM | PERMALINK

SecularAnimist -

I am no flunkie of the petro-industrial complex - I want my grandchildren to have clean air and water and a habitable biosphere as much as the next person.

My primary issue is this: we have no scientifically reproducable proof that we can significantly affect global warming. We *assume* that reducing concentrations of greenhouse gases will work. The truth is - some scientistists guess that it *could* work.

The exemption of some countries - most notably China and India - from the Kyoto Accords (who together have close to 1/2 the world's population and are 2 of the fastest developing countries with pollution comensurately increasing) is simply inexcusable.

A flawed treaty to attempt to fix a problem that there is no scientific proof that conclusively shows we can fix seems at best silly.

Posted by: Spock on November 28, 2006 at 6:33 PM | PERMALINK

As to the economic impact of the Kyoto Accords....

The EU cleverly aligned itself with the fallen economies of Eastern Europe, thus, as a whole will only have to pay roughly $5/ton of emissions while the US and Austrailia would have to pay close to $100/ton.

If each country had to be responsible for its own emissions, the EU would not have signed the treaty either - in particular Germany.

The treaty is based on 1990 levels of emissions...not current levels. Thus countries that have expanded their economies since 1990 have been hit the hardest. Countries like Russia, who's economy has shrunk over that period of time are barely affected by the treaty. And other countries like China and India, who's economies have expanded dramatically over that time were exempted. The treaty is not fair - Greenhouse gases have the same effect regardless of where they are emitted, yet the cost is not similarly dispersed.

Posted by: Spock on November 28, 2006 at 6:46 PM | PERMALINK

Sec, keep in mind that if you say that global warming "is already manifesting in the form of extreme weather events, heat waves, droughts, rapid sea level rise...", you automatically open up the question of whether this is in fact the case. You can't have people saying in 2005 "global warming causes terrible weather, just look at this hurricane season!" and then pretend you didn't say it in 2006 when the problem is one more year advanced, but the hurricanes have been few'n'far between.

Fact is, we do not have reducing economic activity as an option on the table here. Even if some Western governments decide to, a significant amount of the displaced activity is going to just head for China and India, who will sign a global warming treaty the day hell freezes over. That isn't saying that global warming is inevitable, but it will almost certainly NOT be prevented by reducing emissions of greenhouse gases. (Hell, even if we did, if there's also a solar variation cycle involved, it's entirely possible we'd get global warming ANYWAY, though probably not so much of it.)

And, of course, controlling emissions in developing countries consigns more than half the world's population to subsistence farming and poverty, completely aside from the governmental repression that would be necessary to make it stick.

What are our other options? Well, "treat the symptom" solutions can work - instead of focusing on preventing global warming at the root cause level, we can always go about other measures which serve to reduce global warming - primarily by reducing the Earth's albedo directly through particulate ejection into the atmosphere and reducing the heat-island effect of cities through heat-reflective coatings (paint!) on dark surfaces. We're not talking a huge effect here, but we're not talking about HUGE warming either, and it's something that developed countries can do on their own initiative and dollar.

Developing technological alternatives is good too. There's nothing wrong with wind and solar and geothermal energy production (well, aside from solar and geo not working yet and wind being only partially applicable, but let's do more of it.) Nuclear fission plants also offer another way to generate electrical power without atmospheric emissions - even a nuclear accident puts out less radiation than a coal plant working normally, to say nothing of the CO2 involved! It may also be the case that we can come up with some kind of carbon sequestration strategy that can be made to work (hopefully, without the risk of the stuff getting loose and asphyxiating a nearby small town or what have you.)

So increased funding for alternative energy and efficiency increases, greater deployment of fission power, and at least the theoretical work towards direct amelioration are all good ideas. Not only that, we can actually DO them, unlike pretending that we have the power to stop people from setting carbon-containing fuels on fire. ;p

Posted by: Avatar on November 28, 2006 at 7:13 PM | PERMALINK
The point is, we (the US) can build a levee around FL. ex-liberal at 12:17 AM
Bush can't even build a levee around New Orleans, but the US can control its own CO2 omissions and since we are the largest source, that would be significant.
Only the completely arrogant person believes that humans could destroy an entire planet. Orwell at 10:45 AM
You are the hollow men You are the stuffed men Leaning together Headpiece filled with straw. Alas! Your dried voices, when you whisper together Are quiet and meaningless As wind in dry grass Or rats' feet over broken glass In our dry cellar Shape without form, shade without colour, Paralysed force, gesture without motion;...

Ok, so I changed a little

Posted by: Mike on November 28, 2006 at 10:07 PM | PERMALINK

Mike -

I am not all about winning moral victories, because without the world as a whole committed to reducing greenhouse gases, the entire effort is doomed to fail its goal. So the US *unilaterally* doing so would not have any signficance beyond significantly pointless and futile.

Give me an economic alternative energy. Asking folks to de-industrialize is ignoring reality - the reality that people taken as a whole have priorities in their lives that include their own self-interest FIRST. Conditions that will affect their grandchildren have a priority less than the one that affects them NOW. (which is why we have budget deficits, future social security and medicare shortfalls - don't kid yourself into thinking that politicians don't know the priorities of their constituents) When you give a choice that makes economic sense to people in the now, you will have a solution that works.

Posted by: Spock on November 29, 2006 at 9:50 AM | PERMALINK

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