Glad I didn't drop 10 bucks on that book, I guess. Money better spent on the new Talledaga Nights DVD.

The report is not irrelevant. It has further marginalized Bush.

Does this mean Jim Baker is superannuated, at least Beltway-wise?

That, of course, is Latin for "the president's still an idiot."

We won't let a bunch of brown people defeat us! We will keep fighting until you LIEberals lose the war with your surrender-monkeyisms!

Kevin: Question: has a hotly anticipated blue ribbon report ever fallen into irrelevance so quickly?

How about the report of the Shafer Commission, which was appointed by Nixon to justify a war on drugs but instead found marijuana to be essentially harmless and recommended decriminilization?

This one comes to mind, but I'll bet there are lots of other examples, including some scientific reports that were buried by the Bush administration.

That's "decriminalization" of course.

BFD You miss the point entirely (but you're not alone.) Did anyone expect Bush to say "Oh, ok, I'll decide to do that!"?

Thwe point is that the ISG report shifted the debate substantially. What used to provoke cries of treason (Bush has failed in Iraq) is now conventional wisdom.

Stop beating a dead horse.

Well, you've basically got three questions. What ideas are left that stand any chance of working? Of those ideas, which would this administration actually pursue? And of those ideas, which could this administration execute with anything resembling competence? Draw yourself a Venn diagram of those three things and you get -- absolutely in the middle. No commission is going to save this thing, so it doesn't make much sense to criticize Baker, et al.. This is truly what's meant by FUBAR.

Excuse me... absolutely nothing in the middle of that Venn. Sorry about that.

Myself, I think a plan that says "we are leaving by 2008, meanwhile, we'll to talk to and work with everybody under the sun to help Iraq as much as possible" may be as much as you can do in the way of plans.

Would be nice to have an able statesman as the President, who would make it work as best he could. We don't have that.

I disagree that the report is irrelevant. It shifted the dialog sharply to the left because the take away message is Even reasonable Republicans like James Baker think we need to withdraw from Iraq over the next year. Stay-the-course and the new double-down strategy are highly marginalized. Best of all, George W. Bush is marginalized as commander-in-chief since his strategy has been given a bipartisan stamp of failure.

The report has had a substantial effect. 1) The concept that all is well has been burst. 2) A rethinking of the mission is taking place.

The fact that the specific guidance set forth in the report is not acceptable to the White House, or no longer will work because events have passed it by, is not as significant as the effect it had of stimulating debate.

As Bush ignores the report and dithers on making any other response, he further buries his personal approval ratings. The next set should feature some readings in the 20's.

If I had any hopes left that Bush was capable of positive action (in Iraq or elsewhere) I might be perturbed by this. However since I'm certain that any action the administration will take will be disastrously ill-advised, I'm happy that they are sitting around doing nothing. It is the best we will get out of this bunch.

My guess is that the commission was an attempt by Bush I (and poss. some other GOP elders) to salvage the GOP. Remember that Baker is the 'consiglieri of the Bush crime family'; his priority certainly wasn't the good of the USA. The GOP elders have realized that (a) the war in Iraq is now a net negative with the American people, (b) it's only going to get worse over the next two years (both in Iraq and in US opinion), and (c) that Bush's 'plan' consists of continuing on, handing the mess over to his successor, and claiming that *he* didn't lose Iraq.

(a)+(b)+(c)= a Democratic blow-out in 2008, taking the White House, and increasing their majorities in both houses of Congress, *plus* having a mandate to do as they please, out of disgust with the GOP.

The GOP needs to politically neutralize the war by summer, 2008. That's what all of the suggestions were - hopes that the GOP could campaign on the theme that the war was wrapping up, with 'our' guys holding Iraq.

I always thought Baker-Hamilton was a WH pre-election ploy by the Republicans along the lines of Nixon's 'Secret Plan' in 1968.

The goal was to reassure nervous voters that change was coming to Iraq policy after the election.

"Sic transit gloria mundi."

Whaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaat?

Barry is right, and that's why we are now seeing a very careful spoon-feeding of reality to the Decider -- which, given his isolation, will take us into the new year. It has been realized that, unless the Repugs do something to start backing out of the swamp, 2008 is gonna be at least as bad as 2006, with the WH thrown in for good measure.

What I want to know is, how is it that Dead-Ender Dick has come around to the need to acknowledge reality (or has been marginalized)? This couldn't be happening unless he agreed or had been neutralized (and the latter seems much less likely).

The latest intel must be REALLY bad.

"its insignificance was so obvious"

Well . . . perhaps the recommendations were insignficant. But seeing a unanimous, bipartisan report spelling out the horrible facts about the prospects for that war . . . I think that may actually hve been a critical turning point for many. Fair and honest people now will admit it's a quagmire. We now have a blue-ribbon panel on the record.

That, of course, is Latin for "the president's still an idiot."

No, it's Latin for "There goes Gloria Mundi".

Idiot.

"Sic transit gloria mundi" = "Thus passeth earthly glory."

To paraphrase John Kerry, Katrina blew the lid off this administration. After that disaster only the most hardcore right wingers still were on board; everyone else came to the conclusion that these guys didn't know what the hell they were doing.

Verwenden Sie reales Englisch wie jeder sonst.

please.

Verwenden Sie reales Englisch wie jeder sonst.

Google doesn't translate this. What do I do now?

Goddamnit, this is why a writer uses English, for chrissakes. It could be "Thus passeth earthly glory," but more correctly it's "fame is fleeting."

Could be. Which is it, Mr. HotShot pro blog writer stud?

[smiles] Merry Christmas, sir. I hope your wife is well and I've said a prayer of safety for your family for 2007. I do this shit, I swear.

What was the cost of black hole? cleve

"Within days, both left and right slagged it viciously, President Bush made it clear that he didn't think much of it, and virtually no one other than David Broder had anything nice to say about it."

Actually, while most everyone trashed its recommendations, it got a lot of praise for laying out how bad things are in Iraq.

That must have been the fake Al at 6:38, because it was actually kind of funny.

has a hotly anticipated blue ribbon report ever fallen into irrelevance so quickly?

Um, that was its point, Kevin.

chaunceyatrest:

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The GOP needs to politically neutralize the war by summer, 2008.
Posted by: Barry on December 14, 2006 at 6:28 PM | PERMALINK

Well - I think the plan is already under-way. It was to say: "hey, these whackos weren't really Republicans at all, they were a lunatic fringe, you can trust us MODERATES, like McCain."

According to the recent poll numbers, unfortunately, it seems to be working. (at least - "you can trust us MODERATES more than their radicals - like Clinton." Which is why Obama's doing so well - he's perceived as a Dem Moderate. (of course the CNN digging on about his name and fashion-sense doesn't help).

The majority of the people polled are in agreement with reducing the number of troops involved in combat and the commission's suggestion the the U.S. negotiate with Iran and Syria. Straight Talk McCain and Holy Jomentum are in Iraq and are urging more troops. Bush should really listen to them inasmuch as they have been as wrong as him from the gitgo.

oop - scalable; non-scalable type.
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What a Dumbass this Pres. is Baker gave him away to get the heat off his back and the man was to stupid to see what gift baker gave him.I guess the media missed the boat on this to.Seems alot of you guys missed the point of the Baker-Hamilton frport also.

I don't agree. The report's recommendations, it's true, seem both wishy-washy and yet more than the putz in the White House can handle. But its description of the situation in Iraq has put an end to all the blather about how things are better in Iraq than they look on TV, and to all the "on to victory" rhetoric. That's why Bush's ratings have dropped again, and finally, among hard-core Republicans.

I think someone was trying to do this:

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Sic transit, etc - for heavens sake it means Gloria was sick on the bus on Monday. Everyone knows that!!!

Seriously, the Baker report missed too much. It missed the obvious realpolitick situation of Religion, not states, being the driver. Unlike Turkey and Iran, real states and real entities, Iraq, Syria, Saudi Arabia, et al, are not "real" states. Their driver is religion - the Sunni/Shia driver.

Just goes to show how effectively the rightwing proaganda machine shouts down anything it doesn't want to hear.

Kevin is right about this one. The report was lame. There are two honest options: (1) declare it a lost casue, give up, leave and suffer the consequences; or (2)commit to a serious effort to win and pay the price. The report tried to compromise between the two, which was not a serious approach, and it also threw in the silliness about Israel.

But the overall effect of the report is still up in the air. I think it buys time for Bush to pursue option 2 (but not much time) and it temporarily beats back the proponents of option 1. If option 2 does not work within a relatively short time, then the ISG report becomes the fall back choice. So, I think, the ISG most likely is helpful to Bush. It at least temporarily stops or slows the post election continued weakening of Bush's political position. But the quality of the report is poor, as was, by the way, Rumfield's departing memoranum of suggested steps to take.

Funny cartoon at Wonkette where Baker appears to be in the basement of some grade school. Has the heading of the report on the blackboard - Standing in front of the class with a ruler in hand - Above the blackboard are 25 letters of the alphabet, with the W missing.

Paul; I made a t-shirt with transfers and my printer that reads Committee for a 25-Letter Alphabet...Drop W.

David Gergen said some positive things about it. At least in the first 24-36 hrs.

I consider myself a Howard Dean Democrat on the Iraq issue. Stupid mistake but now we need to be smart going forward. If no one else endorses Baker-Hamilton, let me be the first. OK - I'm a voweless econ blogger - but I'm hoping Howard Dean himself has the courage (again) to say the right thing.

The Shafer Commission's not a bad nominee, but you could also make a case (from the same era) for the 1970 Attorney General's Commission on Pornography. (The 1986 Meese Commission was an irrelevancy before it was even published.)

For those whose only news consumption is a 5-minute glance at CNN and 10 minutes of local news each day, I think the report's central message was clear: President's Iraq Plan Called a Failure.

This was already known, of course. But the ISG represented a mainstream, bipartisan slapdown that confirmed and reinforced what much of the country already believed. The report's specifics were lame, but most Americans haven't the faintest idea what the specfics actually said. So I'm not sure that matters, except that people are vaguely aware that the report did not demand an instant pullout.

To the extent that the report will resonate, it will be as the final nail in the coffin for the White House's Iraq policy. I expect the approval numbers to go even mind-numbingly lower in the coming days. Especially if they push to increase the troops.

The effect: ever increasing pressure on congressional REPUBLICANS to turn away from the White House.

Uh--

Americans Say U.S. Is Losing War
Public, Politicians Split on Iraq Panel's Ideas
By Peter Baker and Jon Cohen
Washington Post Staff Writers
Wednesday, December 13, 2006; Page A01

The public is more open to the Iraq Study Group plan, with 46 percent for it and 22 percent against it. When asked about some of its specific recommendations, respondents are dramatically more supportive. Seventy-nine percent favor shifting U.S. troops from combat to support; 69 percent support withdrawing most combat forces by early 2008; 74 percent support reducing aid if Iraq fails to make progress toward national unity and civil order; and about six in 10 support talking with Syria and Iran to try to resolve the conflict.

Even though I am no fan of either Jim "the Fixer" Baker or Lee "Whitewash" Hamilton, their report at least offered some meaningful, if not quixotic, recommendations for a lasting peace in the Middle East. Like solving the Israeli-Palestinian mess - although that may take several generations.

One thing is abundantly clear to me - Bush's solution of trying to kill your way to peace, will never, ever work.

Every comment on the Iraq Study Group plan by the worlds leading tyrants was positive...

Maybe because it was funded by the Institute of Peace, and dubya couldn't stand that kind of language.
I go back to the psychological dimension--he is totally caught up in a fixed delusion that the administration's policies are right, and Jesus approves

has a hotly anticipated blue ribbon report ever fallen into irrelevance so quickly?

actually, the function of a blue ribbon commission -- especially a bipartisan one -- is to be irrelevant. Usually, its a means of taking a "hot" issue off the table, and then release its conclusions when the public's attention is elsewhere.

***************

oh, and btw, the real translation is...

"Gloria threw up on the bus on Monday."

There is no solution palatable to the members of the 'bipartisan' commission or to the members of the corporate establishment they represent. They want Iraq to be a client state with social stability but without the religious and political beliefs that the majority of the people have. Iraq is a majority Shiite state. Any expectation it will become secular and 'Western' with the people's consent and cooperation is laughably tragic. The only solution to 'win' in Iraq is to make Sadr the Grand Ayatollah and facilitate Sharia law. This solution is anathema to almost all Americans, but it is going to happen whether we are the people's allies or their enemy. I guess that is as good of reason as any for why the ISG report is toast. It is useless.

The US can stay the course, withdraw or put its military might at Hakim or Sadr's disposal. (I think Al-Sistani wants nothing of war, adopting the Shi'a's natural inclination of non-aggression.) Now I dislike US foreign policy and military aggression, but if I was a hawkish national security big shot who wanted to exploit Iraq's oil, I would be coronating Sadr and pounding the Sunni militias back to the copper age. The militias, not the people. I do not like this plan. I want the US out of Iraq, but it is a typical US strategic plan without the fear of an ideological foe. Becoming friends with Iraq's and Iran's Shi'a is in America's best interests.

I think the idea that Sadr or even Hakim will be Iran's satellite are wrong. Americans are so enamored with Shiite zealotry, a propaganda theme from the Iranian revolution, that they cannot determine Iraqis and Iranians are of a different national ethnicity.

The US could back the Sunnis and pound the Shiites back to Saddam. I hope that option is not considered.

Consensus and bipartisan compromise is overrated. If one side says two plus two equals four, and the other side says two plus two equals six, having them all come together to agree on "five" is not progress.

The Baker Report was "realism" writ large, the theory that there is no enemy you can't deal with if you kiss their asses hard enough. Witness the Democratic Useful Idiots doing the Grand Tour of Middle Eastern dictators over the past week.

Guess this whole thing was a huge repudiation of Bush Sr's brand of pragmatic bullshit—you know, just enough professionalism to cover for criminal gluttony. Apparently we'll have to have real housecleaning to get rid of these crooks. Clinton's centrists played ball with them, and look what good that did!

Don't forget Chalabi is a Shia. So if our VP was looking for a Shia strongman to take over....

Sounds like Saudi Arabia told us not to do that.

The ISG changed the meme. Before, only DFH (as Atrios calls them) said things were a mess in Iraq. Now it is the conventional wisdom and everyone accepts that. Before only DFH wanted to draw down US troops - now it is the sensible center.

This invasion was the Neocon's solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. They were going to take over a leading Arab country and install Chalabi as leader. In return, he would recognize Israel which would change the dynamic. A pro-Israel, pro-US Arab state with enough oil reserves to impact the market. Trifecta.

I knew Gloria Mundi; Gloria Mundi was a friend of minel You, Mr. Bush sir, are no Gloria Mundi; you are in fact an Ignomini Mundi.

The Baker Report serves as a document that can help Bush, the pro-war Republicans, and their Democratic fellow travelers (of which Hillary, Biden, Kerry, Edwards, and Bayh are among) safe face as Iraq turns into a disaster. Nothing more.

Kevin Drum: "Sic transit gloria mundi."

paradox: "Whaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaat?

It's obviously code. Gloria Mundi was probably a high school senior Kevin had a crush on when he was a freshman.

Gloria Mundi...Didn't Yvonne DeCarlo play her on TV?

As alluded to above, the first part of the report, the analysis section, did an excellent job of establishing just how bad the Administration and the Pentagon have bungled the job. This part of the report was mentioned on every broadcast network and major print publication for days. The effect was evident in the latest polls in which Bush's approval for his handling of the war fell precipitously. That alone justifies it's existence.

Sic transit gloria mundi

That's actually a quote from Charlie Rangel. Up on 125th St. it means the President's in deep shit.

has a hotly anticipated blue ribbon report ever fallen into irrelevance so quickly?

Anyone remember President Bush's blue ribbon panel on tax reform? Exactly.

If Gloria Mundi were alive today she'd be spinning in her grave.

What about all the media reports that said Bush would HAVE to listen to it?

Not at all. It may be momentarily dormant, however, at the ready for both conservative and moderate members of the republican congress to employ a the next tragic event in Iraq.

W fails to appreciate that the report offers him an opportunity to save some face in light of a miserably incompetent policy. By rejecting this latest olive branch, HW may now wash his hands of W.

The ISG report is getting short shrift, and I wonder if many commentators (especially in the press) have actually read it. Its recommendations are not a list that can be cherry picked. Clearly, the report is comprehensive: if we (the US and the Iraqi government) undertake numerous initiatives such as those in the report over the ENTIRE military-diplomatic-reconstruction-security spectrum, then MAYBE US forces can be drawn down. Otherwise, Iraq and the Middle East will be plunged into chaos.
The debate has focused on the US forces and Iran-Syrai diplomacy recommendations to the exclusions of the rest.
Fortunately, the Iraqi government seems to be taking some of these steps on its own. To some extent, the Bush administration may be encouraging them. Alot of what we hear is noise from advocates for this and that, saying the President is going in this direction, or that. But the report makes sense, and if there are sensible people in Iraq and the Middle East at the levers of power (and PBS interviews with some of them are encouraging), they will be already acting on some of these common sense recommendations. That Iraq has diplomatic relations with Syria and Iran, and will join a regional Arab League forum on stability, are just two examples.
There are things that the US should do to help Iraq related to the ISG, and Iraq is asking for them now. ONe is equipment for the military and police. Another is targeted reconstruction (the outgoing US military commander is arguing forcefuly for this too).
So there are reasons for optimism. I'm grateful that these folks told the Emporer that he had no clothes.

My impression is that Bush will plumb the 20s in his next survey.

Could it be because it blew the last diaphanous remnants ofo the various phony 'idealist' justifications for this disastrous war into confetti?

http://www.latimes.com/news/printedition/opinion/la-oe-juhasz8dec08,0,2837955.story?
coll=la-news-comment

'It's still about oil in Iraq'
Antonia Juhasz

'Page 1, Chapter 1 of the Iraq Study Group report lays out Iraq's importance to its region, the U.S. and the world with this reminder: "It has the world's second-largest known oil reserves." The group then proceeds to give very specific and radical recommendations as to what the United States should do to secure those reserves. If the proposals are followed, Iraq's national oil industry will be commercialized and opened to foreign firms.

The report makes visible to everyone the elephant in the room: that we are fighting, killing and dying in a war for oil. It states in plain language that the U.S. government should use every tool at its disposal to ensure that American oil interests and those of its corporations are met.

It's spelled out in Recommendation No. 63, which calls on the U.S. to "assist Iraqi leaders to reorganize the national oil industry as a commercial enterprise" and to "encourage investment in Iraq's oil sector by the international community and by international energy companies." This recommendation would turn Iraq's nationalized oil industry into a commercial entity that could be partly or fully privatized by foreign firms.'

The Bush family's motto should read, 'Striving to make the world safe for (Standard Oil - strikethru) Exxon-Mobil for 5 generations now...and counting.'

(Can't import Strike Thru formatted text for some reason)

Common sense tells Iraqis to kill foreign invaders who want to impose something other than a Shi'a dominated government.

The Report fails on its own demerits & utter lack of self-awareness. In many, many, places it cavalierly tells the rest of the world how to conduct its business, as though the US is some benign & all-wise arbiter. Recs 28, 62, & 63 tell Iraq how to run its oil industry. These follow #23, where the Preznit is supposed to "restate that the United States does not seek to control Iraq's oil".

The Baker Commission was a political sham. It allowed people to whisper all sorts of things about what new course Bush was going to pursue in Iraq after the election--start a withdrawal, call a regional conference, insert more troops--without Bush actually having to commit to doing any of those things. Bush accepted the Baker Commission in the hopes it would take Iraq out of the election. (Remember all of those commentators in September and October who were acting like the Baker Commission was going to come up with some magic solution to Iraq?). Once the election was over, Bush had no need for the Commission, and so he's dumped it.

Sic transit gloria oleum mundi

"Gloria Mundi...Didn't Yvonne DeCarlo play her on TV?"

No. It was Sally Struthers, meathead.

No, it's Latin for "There goes Gloria Mundi".

No it's Latin for "Gloria got sick on the bus Monday. "

Who's Gloria Mundi and why are we "sic'ing" her on Iraq?

The Little Idiot's Iraq policy is sic, sic, sic.

The ISG's assessment of the bleakness of the situation was a huge contribution to undermining the 'stabbed-in-the-back-by-liberal-media-and-liberals-in-Congress' legend under construction by the right wing.

Rejecting both the assessment and the recommendations pushed Bush clearly over to the side along with the 30% who're still with him: the Hannitys and the howling 'base'.

So I'd say the report played a useful role before it played out. The choice is now real withdrawal and negotiation with all the regional players, or Bush 'surge' fantasy.

Reality will force withdrawal.

He had his chance... Going along with most of the ISG plan would have bought him several months of muting of criticism by members of Congress, Dem and R.

Well, you might want to actually read the report, because it does not call for withdrawal, it does call for privatization of Iraq's oil, and it's probably the basic plan for the next two years, or more, in Iraq. Unless, of course, things get radically worse.

alternet.org/waroniraq/43045/ posted 10/16/06 is entitled "Bush's Petro-Cartel Almost Has Iraq's Oil" -----by Joshua Holland
Worth a read. "Oil is close to the surface, easy to extract, making it all the more profitable, said James Paul, executive director of the Global Policy Forum, "can produce a barrel of Iraq oil for $1.50, and possibly as little as $1.00, including all exploration, oil field development and production costs."
Recall Paul O'Neill, former Treasury Secretary, said that less that 2 weeks after the 2001 inauguration, regieme change in Iraq was 'Topic A'
Judicial Watch acquired documents about the secret energy hearings with oil executives--check out Mr. Holland's article.

Perhaps it is just a massive oil sic.