February 8, 2007
YES, THINGS CAN GET WORSE....A CONTINUING SERIES....The New York Times reports today on the recent spike in helicopter crashes in Iraq:
Some aspects of the recent crashes indicate that insurgents have become smarter about anticipating American flight patterns and finding ways to use old weapons to down helicopters, according to military and witness reports.
....Historically, improved tactics in shooting down helicopters have proved to be important factors in conflicts in which guerrillas have achieved victories against major powers, including battles in Somalia, Afghanistan and Vietnam.
Compare that with Tom Lasseter's report from Baghdad last week:
The U.S. military drive to train and equip Iraq's security forces has unwittingly strengthened anti-American Shiite Muslim cleric Muqtada al-Sadr's Mahdi Army militia, which has been battling to take over much of the capital city as American forces are trying to secure it.
.... After U.S. units pounded al-Sadr's men in August 2004, the cleric apparently decided that instead of facing American tanks, he'd use the Americans' plans to build Iraqi security forces to rebuild his own militia.
....His recruits began flooding into the Iraqi army and police, receiving training, uniforms and equipment either directly from the U.S. military or from the American-backed Iraqi Defense Ministry.
Every day that we remain in Iraq we are almost certainly making things worse, both politically and militarily. The political situation will continue to deteriorate because any kind of compromise is fatally associated with doing the Americans' bidding. The military situation will continue to deteriorate as the insurgents take advantage of the war to become better trained and more lethal. (Remember the mujahedin in Afghanistan?) And, as Armando never tires of pointing out, our continued presence is by far the most likely source of some kind of provocation that provides an excuse to expand the war into Iran.
Iraq is not likely to have a happy ending no matter what we do, and that's hard to accept. But there's a huge downside to staying, namely that the ending is likely to be a lot less happy the longer we're there. It's time to stop digging ourselves into an ever deeper hole.
—Kevin Drum 1:25 PM
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Kevin may be right that it's hopeless, but nobody knows this today. Yes, the enemy has new capability, probably with the help of Iran. We will have to develop new abilities ourselves. That's the nature of war.
Our situation in Iraq is different from the USSR's in Afghanistan, because we're not fighting to take over the country. We're fighting along side of the elected government to help end the violence. I have no doubt that a large majority of Iraqis wants our side to succeed.
Posted by: ex-liberal on February 8, 2007 at 1:49 PM | PERMALINK
Hey Kevin: you should know that Jonah Goldberg just can't stop gushing about you and how good and interesting opponent you are and how much better you and he are than those hordes of nasty, vicious lefty bloggers.
http://corner.nationalreview.com/post/?q=MDRiOWQ0OTI3MzQ2YzYyMjA1NDRiYThmZWQ1ODMyN2Q=
Again: his next book? Liberal Facism. You can't make this stuff up.
Posted by: plunge on February 8, 2007 at 1:52 PM | PERMALINK
ex-liberal—even you can't believe that utter hogwash.
Posted by: Kenji on February 8, 2007 at 1:55 PM | PERMALINK
Bush wants to spend 130 BILLION in Iraq this year and 100 BILLION next year, plus 50 BILLION in the year after that. That is 280 BILLION, which works out to 1000 per American.
Are you ready to write a $1000 check to piss into the desert of Iraq?
Posted by: POed Lib on February 8, 2007 at 1:56 PM | PERMALINK
Frequency Kenneth: "I'm a complete idiot!"
Posted by: Kenji on February 8, 2007 at 2:01 PM | PERMALINK
Winston Churchill: "All I ask from you is blood, sweat and tears."
Repukeliscum: "All we ask of you is to accept huge tax cuts for rich people, and to pay huge new taxes for the middle class. For everyone but the richest, you will pay a Birth Tax thanks to George Bush."
Posted by: POed Lib on February 8, 2007 at 2:02 PM | PERMALINK
Hey, Frequently Stupid, are you a veteran, or are you yet another physical coward like all repukeliscum today?
Posted by: POed Lib on February 8, 2007 at 2:04 PM | PERMALINK
A friend of a friend was stationed in Iraq. The problem on the bases is that the insurgents know the paths troops take from building to building and target their mortars accordingly.
This is typical stuff for an invasion army that finds itself in the midst of a country that is friendly by day and hostile by night. What the Americans will learn, like the French in Algeria and other Americans in Vietnam is that there are no allies in the occupied country.
Posted by: bellumregio on February 8, 2007 at 2:05 PM | PERMALINK
"We know that American people and their government respect the law. So they should respect the law [in Iraq]," al-Shammari said.
How little they understand the Kingdom of Bush.
Posted by: Google_This on February 8, 2007 at 2:06 PM | PERMALINK
My neighbor was an alcoholic and he beat his wife. One night, I broke down the door & shot him. Now his children are killing each other, for control of the inheritance. I have no idea how to stop it.
And you'd think everyone else would take responsibility for what they made me do! How irresponsible can they be!!
Posted by: Absent Observer on February 8, 2007 at 2:07 PM | PERMALINK
I'm sickened by the fear that escalation and embedding = training them to take our choppers out.
Posted by: Gex on February 8, 2007 at 2:08 PM | PERMALINK
Now you've got it: "Iraq is not likely to have a happy ending no matter what we do, and that's hard to accept. But there's a huge downside to staying, namely that the ending is likely to be a lot less happy the longer we're there. It's time to stop digging ourselves into an ever deeper hole."
So what's the fastest, smartest, most humane way to get out?
Posted by: aphid on February 8, 2007 at 2:09 PM | PERMALINK
And now, Absent, your family is spending every cent it has to arm your neighbor's children, even though they keep throwing bombs at your house. But as long as you stay the course, all real men will admire you!
Posted by: Kenji on February 8, 2007 at 2:11 PM | PERMALINK
These are unfortunate consequenses of operating in a hostile environment, but they in no way overwhelming or define what is happening in Iraq.
Posted by: aaron on February 8, 2007 at 2:15 PM | PERMALINK
I know!! $10 billion a month. and I'm not a wealthy person. Luckily, I've taken out loans from China that my grandkids will pay off. I wish I knew whose fault this is!
Posted by: Absent Observer on February 8, 2007 at 2:17 PM | PERMALINK
Iraq is not likely to have a happy ending no matter what we do
I disagree with this theme. Iraq will not likely have a happy ending that satisfies Exxon-Mobil or Chalabi or a Baathist or some buggerer prince from Saudi Arabia. But if the popular will of the largest group of people in Iraq, the Shi'a, is achieved, then at least some good will come out of the US deposing Saddam. The unwillingness to accept the popular will of the people of Iraq by the occupying political leadership of the US is what is causing the outcome to be much worse than it could be, for both Iraqis and Americans.
The propaganda theme that people like al-Sadr and the Ayatollah Nasrallah are bad for the people of America is a lie. When people in every nation are able to express their popular political will, that is usually a benefit to all of mankind.
Posted by: Brojo on February 8, 2007 at 2:19 PM | PERMALINK
Neocons have proved (as if it needed to be done) that Empire Envy is a very bad disease.
Posted by: gregor on February 8, 2007 at 2:21 PM | PERMALINK
It may be awful in Iraq now, but what do we do about this line in the Lasseter story?
All the Shiites have to do is tell everyone to lay low, wait for the Americans to leave, then when they leave you have a target list and within a day they'll kill every Sunni leader in the country. It'll be called the `Day of Death' or something like that," said 1st Lt. Alain Etienne, 34, of Brooklyn, N.Y. "They say, `Wait, and we will be victorious.' That's what they preach. And it will be their victory."
Posted by: Mark on February 8, 2007 at 2:22 PM | PERMALINK
aaron on February 8, 2007 at 2:15 PM:
These are unfortunate consequenses of operating in a hostile environment, but they in no way overwhelming or define what is happening in Iraq.
Unclear grammar aside, how would you go about defining what is happening in Iraq?
Purple fingers?...Ones that still belong to their original owner, I mean...
Posted by: grape_crush on February 8, 2007 at 2:23 PM | PERMALINK
I guess the people in the White House think it is 1870 and they are the British in India who will train the native army to do their bidding. The Iraqis have been fed decades of anti-American propaganda; the entire region is leery of Western ambitions after more than a century of invasions, coups, puppet dictators and seized resources. Their religion regards Americans as heretics. American culture, including laissez-faire capitalism, is alien and even anti-Islamic. And the invasion has made life worse in Iraq than it was under Saddam and their is no end in sight. How can anyone image that Iraqis would do anything but fight, and learn, and fight and fight some more?
What would happen if China invaded the United States, destroyed the military and started training a new one? Everyone would join up and shoot them in the back.
Posted by: bellumregio on February 8, 2007 at 2:24 PM | PERMALINK
No, we would be grateful. Where do we sign up for mandarin lessons?
Posted by: Kenji on February 8, 2007 at 2:26 PM | PERMALINK
Absent;
Clearly your problem with your neighbors is now being caused by your neighbors' neigbors. You know what you have to do next... just be a MAN about it.
Posted by: thersites on February 8, 2007 at 2:35 PM | PERMALINK
Kevin Drum wrote, "Iraq is not likely to have a happy ending no matter what we do, and that's hard to accept."
No, it's not hard. Watch this:
"I accept that Iraq is not likely to have a happy ending no matter what we do."
See? It is easy to accept.
Posted by: Joel Rubinstein on February 8, 2007 at 2:44 PM | PERMALINK
I don't agree with "getting out." Iraq is a problem we created and we need to fix. I do agree with the ISG that there are other ways to go about the problem then surging. What about a pull back with tactical assistance. What about diplomatic efforts? What about engaging the UN and Arab League? I don't want to surge and I don't want to just withdraw. Are all of you in favor of flat out withdraw then? I'm in favor of tactical stretegies to make progress in Iraq. Pull back seems a good start, withdraw seems to be abandoning the Iraqies...again.
Posted by: the fake fake al on February 8, 2007 at 2:44 PM | PERMALINK
Joel,
I think Kevin is saying "It's not hard for those of us who supported the war to swallow."
Posted by: cmdicely on February 8, 2007 at 2:47 PM | PERMALINK
Iraq is not likely to have a happy ending no matter what we do
As any John can tell you, never pay up front.
Posted by: Disputo on February 8, 2007 at 2:47 PM | PERMALINK
"We order you to withdraw your forces immediately. But the withdrawal must be via troop transport trucks and passenger planes whereby each soldier is allowed to carry his own weapon only. They may not withdraw any of the heavy military equipment and the military bases must be handed over to the mujaheddin of the Islamic State and the duration of the withdrawal may not exceed a month."
--Abu Omar al-Baghdadi, head of al Qaeda in Iraq
The Democrats should immediately propose this in Congress, and bring it up for a vote. It sounds like the best deal we're going to get.
Posted by: dnc on February 8, 2007 at 2:50 PM | PERMALINK
Brojo wrote, "But if the popular will of the largest group of people in Iraq, the Shi'a, is achieved, then at least some good will come out of the US deposing Saddam.... The propaganda theme that people like al-Sadr and the Ayatollah Nasrallah are bad for the people of America is a lie. When people in every nation are able to express their popular political will, that is usually a benefit to all of mankind."
By this logic, the Nazi Holocaust of Jews, Gypsies, and gays was OK since the majority went along with it.
Posted by: Joel Rubinstein on February 8, 2007 at 2:51 PM | PERMALINK
Just wait and see what happens to our troops after we attack Iran. They'll be sitting ducks.
Posted by: catherineD on February 8, 2007 at 2:54 PM | PERMALINK
Leave it to an IGCer to invoke Godwin's Law in the most ridiculously childish way. Good show.
Posted by: Disputo on February 8, 2007 at 2:57 PM | PERMALINK
The United States cannot leave Iraq entirely. Oil is too important, but it cannot hold the country and make it in its own image. It is unlikely that a long US presence, like in the countries defeated in WWII, will be possible. More than likely the US will have a few castle-bases in a hostile sea for a short period of time followed by withdrawal.
The problem for the US is that it is out of money. The only money it has to fight these wars it has to borrow. So in the not too distant future the US will have to decide to pay for its foreign empire or pay for domestic infrastructure including healthcare, education and the levees in New Orleans. Radical Republicans will chose ruin as authoritarians have done throughout time. For them no domestic price is too high for power and the last trappings of prestige.
But if a sane government is in power when the bill comes due the US will leave one place after another just like the British in the 1960’s.
Posted by: bellumregio on February 8, 2007 at 3:01 PM | PERMALINK
Joel Rubinstein, I did qualify my sentence with the term 'usually.' Also, was the Nazi extermination of Jews, Gypsies, and homosexuals really an expression of popular will? The voting that placed Hitler in power may not have been an expression of popular will because not everyone was allowed to vote or run for office. There was a lot of physical violence against Socialist. The burning of the Reichstag was not an act of popular will. But you make a good point. Certainly the extermination of Native Americans by the Europeans was an expression of their popular will, as is the totalitarian terror being visited upon the Palestinians an act of popular will by the Israelis. So to was the destruction of Lebanon this past summer. But, was the destruction of Lebanon with US armaments gifted to Israel an expression of popular will of Americans?
Posted by: Brojo on February 8, 2007 at 3:02 PM | PERMALINK
POed Lib:
Bush is not even asking us to piss $1000 each into the Iraqi desert. He is asking (actually forcing) our children and grandchildren to pay for his war crimes. Of course, the Mark Foley scandal showed that many conservatives don't care a whit if their actions or inactions harm children. Of course, a liberal never would. Another clear difference between liberals and conservatives.
Conservatives also often approach international relations in a similarly infantile and selfish manner. Look at Frequency Kenneth and the way he sees our illegal occupation of Iraq as a glorified game of "chicken" where nyah-nyah, those scaredy cat liberals want to "surrender" and that makes him and his ilk the big, tough kings of the hill. There is just no point trying to reason with such childish twits, because you just end up lowering yourself to their level of immaturity. Bush is equally infantile. It sure is going to be nice to have some adults in charge again, when Democrats take back the White House in 2008.
Peace,
TCD
Posted by: The Conservative Deflator on February 8, 2007 at 3:06 PM | PERMALINK
Disputo: Godwin's Law can itself also be abused, as a distraction or diversion, to fallaciously miscast an opponent's argument as hyperbole, especially if the comparison it made were actually appropriate.
My point was simply that it is absurd to suggest that Sunnis and Shi'ites killing each other indiscriminantly is OK, and such killing doesn't "benefit mankind" as Brojo suggested.
Love,
Posted by: Joel Rubinstein on February 8, 2007 at 3:08 PM | PERMALINK
Oh, and the Democrats should propose pulling out of Afghanistan immediately after Iraq.
Why wait for al Qaeda and the rest to use the same tactics that drove us out of Iraq? It would just mean more American lives lost.
Posted by: dnc on February 8, 2007 at 3:08 PM | PERMALINK
POed Lib:
Bush is not even asking us to piss $1000 each into the Iraqi desert. He is asking (actually forcing) our children and grandchildren to pay for his war crimes. Of course, the Mark Foley scandal showed that many conservatives don't care a whit if their actions or inactions harm children. Of course, a liberal never would. Another clear difference between liberals and conservatives.
Conservatives also often approach international relations in a similarly infantile and selfish manner. Look at Frequency Kenneth and the way he sees our illegal occupation of Iraq as a glorified game of "chicken" where nyah-nyah, those scaredy cat liberals want to "surrender" and that makes him and his ilk the big, tough kings of the hill. There is just no point trying to reason with such childish twits, because you just end up lowering yourself to their level of immaturity. Bush is equally infantile. It sure is going to be nice to have some adults in charge again, when Democrats take back the White House in 2008.
Peace,
TCD
Posted by: The Conservative Deflator on February 8, 2007 at 3:10 PM | PERMALINK
Frequency K: Democrats: "Lions and tigers and bears, oh my!"
Realists: "Lions etc, and some damn fool wasted all my ammo on squirrels. Better see if I can talk with the Lions, etc. I can make more ammo in the meantime, in case I end up needing it."
Posted by: thersites on February 8, 2007 at 3:10 PM | PERMALINK
Realists who think it works to talk to lions are probably getting scarce.
Posted by: harry on February 8, 2007 at 3:20 PM | PERMALINK
We will see what the republics have to say in 08 when the dems will have a super majority,Do you know how hard Newt tried to reach that with his party.And now they hand it to the dems on a silver platter,Thank you very much,With all the power the Republics have bestowed on the President we should be able to wipe out the radical right in no time.I see Dobson and his ilk crying like babies when they all lose the Tax exempy statis.OT anyone else hear FOX news is going broke,They may take hannity and colmes off the air.Checking for link.
Posted by: john john on February 8, 2007 at 3:37 PM | PERMALINK
I poop too much and it makes me tired.
Posted by: Frequency Kenneth on February 8, 2007 at 3:38 PM | PERMALINK
The Holocaust was not an expression of German popular will. It was not voted on. Hitler certainly did not run for office on an open campaign of extermination. You could read what he wanted to do in Mien Kampf but few people did. No one expected him to become dictator, but when he did, under a declared emergency, no one had enough power to challenge his supreme rule under martial law.
The Nazis said they would protect the true Germans from internal and external enemies. In the Nazi myth (indeed the German right’s myth) it was the November Criminals who stabbed Germany in the back in WWI. They were the ones profiting during the Republic while real Germans suffered. They were to blame, not the Kaiser or the right-wing militaristic leaders. The groups they chose to call traitors - communists, socialists, liberals, Jews, gays, the infirm- where particular to the place and the time.
The political lesson of Germany under fascism is that one should never choose security and the ease of authoritarian leadership over liberal democracy and pluralism, especially in a time of crisis.
Posted by: bellumregio on February 8, 2007 at 3:38 PM | PERMALINK
ex-liberal >"...We will have to develop new abilities ourselves. That's the nature of war..."
So you & Frequency have decided to sign up and head over to Iraq eah ?
Great, let us know when you ship out & we`ll be happy to follow your "adventures" taming all those brown skinned barbarians.
"The only barrier to a successfully sustainable planet is ignorance." - R. Buckminster Fuller
Posted by: daCascadian on February 8, 2007 at 3:46 PM | PERMALINK
Good luck getting that lesson across to Americans, bellum. They think history started last Tuesday, and can't remember it all that clearly.
Posted by: Kenji on February 8, 2007 at 3:48 PM | PERMALINK
Let me rephrase:
When people in every nation are able to express their popular political will through a limited social contract that prevents a tyranny of the majority, that is usually a benefit to all of mankind.
Posted by: Brojo on February 8, 2007 at 3:48 PM | PERMALINK
Godwin's Law: "As an online discussion grows longer, the probability of a comparison involving Nazis or Hitler approaches one."
Use it correctly, please.
Not Godwin's Law:
(1) The first person to mention Hitler or the Nazis in a debate loses.
(2) Any comparison to Hitler or the Nazis is improper during a debate.
(3) The only reason to mention Hitler or the Nazis is to derail a debate.
Posted by: Godwin on February 8, 2007 at 3:48 PM | PERMALINK
Speaking of treason, here's a fine article on how the US lost 363 tons of cash in Iraq,
The minutes from a May 2004 CPA meeting reveal "a single disbursement of $500m in security funding labelled merely 'TBD', meaning 'to be determined'."
Get this --they were so exhausted from cooking up phony rationales for how they got rid of it, they just gave up!
But that isn't the most striking thing about the article.
My question is, who is the guy in the photo?
He's certainly not military, and he certainly doesn't look like a Blackwater mercenary and he doesn't look like he's ever held a gun before. He does look like the kind of trusty executive who might be employed by some large company like, oh, you know, some company like, say, --Halliburton!
More likely though it's a Halliburton subsidiary in the business of helping the government 'determine' what to do with money 'to be determined' they just can't find anything to do with, a fine example of the private sector doing something more efficiently a public body stifled with bureaucracy.
To oversee the expenditure the CPA was supposed to appoint an independent certified public accounting firm. "Instead the CPA hired an obscure consulting firm called North Star Consultants Inc. The firm was so small that it reportedly operates out of a private home in San Diego."
Their rationale for how this happened, Paul Bremer, the head of the CPA, reminded the committee that "the subject of today's hearing is the CPA's use and accounting for funds belonging to the Iraqi people held in the so-called Development Fund for Iraq. These are not appropriated American funds. They are Iraqi funds. I believe the CPA discharged its responsibilities to manage these Iraqi funds on behalf of the Iraqi people."
But it's not our problem, Bremer's financial adviser, retired Admiral David Oliver, is even more direct. The memorandum quotes an interview with the BBC World Service. Asked what had happened to the $8.8bn he replied: "I have no idea. I can't tell you whether or not the money went to the right things or didn't - nor do I actually think it's important."
Q: "But the fact is billions of dollars have disappeared without trace."
Oliver: "Of their money. Billions of dollars of their money, yeah I understand. I'm saying what difference does it make?"
We just carpet bombed them with their own money, and no one could have foreseen the dike would burst. Why is this treason? Because anyone could have foreseen the dike would burst and anyone can see it was cooked up this way for no reason except to cause as much chaos as they could to cover up this huge system wide theft and who cares how much it falls back and injures the US?
It is this disavowal of public responsibility resulting in significant damage to our interests, and specifically our interests in what these same people insistently call a war, that crosses the line from plain criminality to treason.
Surely this guy in the photo would be easy enough to identify?
Posted by: cld on February 8, 2007 at 3:54 PM | PERMALINK
I wonder what kind of parallels there might be in comparing our fiasco in Iraq with the Soviets in Afghanistan? Vietnam comparisons are rampant. Has anyone seen, read, heard anyone compare the Russian invasion/occupation of Afghanistan in the early 80's to what we are now stuck in?
Posted by: Bluesguy on February 8, 2007 at 3:58 PM | PERMALINK
My point was simply that it is absurd to suggest that Sunnis and Shi'ites killing each other indiscriminantly is OK, and such killing doesn't "benefit mankind" as Brojo suggested.
Since Brojo suggested no such thing, it's safe to assume that you are yet another disingenious neocon troll, which simply confirms the impression you made when you willy-nilly dropped the N bomb.
Thanks for playing.
Posted by: Disputo on February 8, 2007 at 3:58 PM | PERMALINK
Yes, the enemy has new capability, probably with the help of Iran.
"ex-liberal," you keep accusing Iran.
You keep getting challenged to provide evidence.
You keep failing -- conspicuously -- to do so.
No one, but no one, is fooled by your neocon bullshit. No one, but no one, mistakes you for an honest commentator. Why do you bother?
Posted by: Gregory on February 8, 2007 at 3:59 PM | PERMALINK
Since I used it correctly, "Godwin", I have no idea what you're referring to.
Posted by: Disputo on February 8, 2007 at 4:01 PM | PERMALINK
Uh, Frequency Sockpuppet, unless your ass is in-country, I'd suggest thinking twice -- or even once -- before implicating others for cowardice.
Posted by: Gregory on February 8, 2007 at 4:03 PM | PERMALINK
Bluesguy, that's the comparison I make, since it looks likely that GWB's reign will end up with the US being much less powerful than before he took office.
Posted by: Disputo on February 8, 2007 at 4:03 PM | PERMALINK
Bluesguy,
The Russians themselves make the analogy a great deal. Difference is they had a conscript army. It all comes under "failed imperial domination after 1950". Pick your empire in some third world place and look for the similarities.
The Israeli military historian Martin van Creveld, among others, has spent a great deal of time trying to understand why powerful, well-equip, highly motivated armies from great nations are unable to defeat threadbare guerilla forces. It defies logic if your only touchstone is force.
Posted by: bellumregio on February 8, 2007 at 4:18 PM | PERMALINK
"Historically, improved tactics in shooting down helicopters have proved to be important factors in conflicts in which guerrillas have achieved victories against major powers, including battles in Somalia, Afghanistan and Vietnam."
Put that one in your file cabinet.
Should America ever be invaded by hordes of Islamo-fascists from the Middle East... all of us good Christians will know what to aim at!
Side note:
Should that day ever come... do you suppose the al jazeera media will label us "insurgents" or "terrorists" or a little of both?
Moral of my post:
Get the fuck out of Iraq whitey.
It ain't your country to police or profit from.
Instead, why don't you go fuck up the moon or mars or something....
Posted by: ROTFLMLiberalAO on February 8, 2007 at 4:37 PM | PERMALINK
Will this form the basis of an impeachment proceeding?
http://www.rawstory.com/news/2007/Pentagon_Inspector_General_to_release_investigation_0207.html
Posted by: jman_nyc on February 8, 2007 at 4:44 PM | PERMALINK
Disputo: Since I used it correctly, "Godwin", I have no idea what you're referring to.
Disputo's claim: Leave it to an IGCer to invoke Godwin's Law in the most ridiculously childish way.
You can't "invoke" Godwin's law, even if Joel had indeed purported to do so.
Godwin's Law simply states the likelihood of something happening.
There is nothing to "invoke".
Can one "invoke" the law of thermodynamics?
Perhaps, if one stated something like, "proposition X must be true, because the law of thermodynamics states . . ."
But, Joel didn't cite Godwin's Law in support of some argument or conclusion (using the meaning of "invoke" to appeal to or cite in support or justification).
One might reasonably conclude that Joel's comment represented a confirmation of Godwin's Law or an example of Godwin's Law at work, but even that conclusion is dubious, since Godwin's Law is a statement of statistics and one thread is hardly evidence of a general trend or pattern that would support a statistical inference.
Godwin's Law is misused and overused, mostly by conservatives but occasionally by good and righteous left wingers, and Godwin doesn't like it.
Posted by: Godwin on February 8, 2007 at 4:54 PM | PERMALINK
YES, THINGS CAN GET WORSE
We won't know how much worse until Bush's surge is given time to do its magic.
Posted by: asdfg on February 8, 2007 at 5:02 PM | PERMALINK
Brojo: I prefer your rephrase, "When people in every nation are able to express their popular political will through a limited social contract that prevents a tyranny of the majority, that is usually a benefit to all of mankind." Only problem is, there are no data to test it, since there has never been a time in history when your "when" condition has been met.
Disputo: A neocon, moi? surely you jest. Please look again at my original critique of Brojo.
Brojo wrote, "But if the popular will of the largest group of people in Iraq, the Shi'a, is achieved, then at least some good will come out of the US deposing Saddam...." My reaction was, if the popular will of the Shi'a results in the indiscriminant killing of innocent Sunni persons, and the indiscriminant killing of innocent Shi'ite persons, well, we have a civil war, and no good has come out from the U.S. deposing Saddam.*
And you think I'm a neocon??
----------
*This indiscriminant killing is imperfectly analogous to the N. regime I mentioned before. What these events share is that people are killed because of who they are -- what groups they are members of -- not because of any offenses they have committed. I draw no other analogy than this.
Posted by: Joel Rubinstein on February 8, 2007 at 5:13 PM | PERMALINK
Sidney Blumenthal informs us the thinking people in the Pentagon are now working on plans for the worst-case scenario in Iraq- in case the escalation fails- and they all think it will fail. What we see now, the talk from the politicians is just a cover story. The reality on the ground, the wasted and stolen money, the torture and abuse, the abuse of the rights of the American people will shock us and probably shock many of them.
Posted by: bellumregio on February 8, 2007 at 5:16 PM | PERMALINK
This is the 5th US helicopter disaster in 19 days...as said, they're surging back.
It is just as decorated Marine veteran and Democratic Representative of Pennsylvania John Murtha advised over a year ago -- if we stay in Iraq, Americans there just become targets.
While spending over 2 billion per week in Iraq.
And the disgraceful budget presented this week by the president protects the rich, hurts the poor, disguises war spending and squeezes critical domestic programs.
These are the worst of times.
I have a smidgen of hope as I watch Cspan 3 televising California's Democratic Representative Harold Waxman's Oversight and Government Reform Committee looking into the corruption with contracts and reconstruction in Iraq.
Posted by: consider wisely always on February 8, 2007 at 5:24 PM | PERMALINK
We need to redeply, not to capitulate to Al Qaeda. We can move our forces to bases in the region and be ready to send in quick strike forces whenever we see the opportunity. What's needed is for us to no longer be an occupying force in Iraq. Al Qaeda can't get to us so easily in Kuwait. We can quickly get to them in Iraq.
Posted by: ny nick on February 8, 2007 at 5:37 PM | PERMALINK
Unfortunately as we keep training the Iraqis how to fight - they will get better at fighting us. The Iraqi police and army are infiltrated with everyone we're fighting, and we keep giving them arms and training.
There has been no proof that Iran is involved. What is more likely is that Iran is learning from Iraq insurgents just how to take on the US Army and win as we have turned Iraq into a learn or die training ground. Iraqi insurgents WITH US TRAINING to boot. This is a GOLD MINE of information on how the US Army works.
We are spending American blood and treasure to create and train the next generation of terrorists. And there will be a whole bunch more with better training than Al Qaeda ever dreamed of making.
Iraq has been and continues to be the biggest foreign policy blunder ever.
Posted by: Glen on February 8, 2007 at 5:49 PM | PERMALINK
the popular will of the largest group of people in Iraq, the Shi'a
does not mean
Sunnis and Shi'ites killing each other indiscriminantly is OK
Joel Rubinstein, I agree with you that limiting popular will with social contracts has a poor historical record preventing the slaughter of innocents. The US' limited democracy, and the popular will of its people, has not prevented the continued indiscriminant killing of Iraqis by the US military. The US constitution did not do much to protect the lives of millions of Vietnamese.
I still think promoting the popular will of a nation, combined with limits of a social contract protecting the rights of minorities, is still the best solution to every nation's political governance and that it benefits everyone else, too. I will be happy to consider other forms of governance that do a better job of fulfilling its citizens' will and protecting the citizens of its antagonists. I have used the expression 'limited democracy' to describe governance by popular will constrained by a social contract. The US government is different than the Iranian and different than the Belgian, and so on. Many of the Western European governments have what are called consociational democracies, which codify representation for minorities in their social contracts. Perhaps that is a better way.
For now our world is divided into nations. I would prefer we live beyond nationalism, but that is not likely to occur anytime soon. One world governance will not guarantee that the benign desires of the people will be expressed or prevent popular murderous desires from being carried out.
Posted by: Brojo on February 8, 2007 at 6:03 PM | PERMALINK
Given the insatiable need in this country for salatious news, the untimely death
of blonde bombshell Anna Nicole Smith, so remniscent of Marilyn Monroe's own demise, will likely knock the immoral war and frightening administrative budget proposals off the front page for some time to come.
Posted by: consider wisely always on February 8, 2007 at 6:22 PM | PERMALINK
the untimely death... will likely knock the immoral war and ... off the front page.
Thank You Jesus!
Posted by: gwb on February 8, 2007 at 6:36 PM | PERMALINK
The mujahedin of afghanistan never signed on to the cease fire that russians needed before they left afganistan. The russians still had to fight their way our of afganistan.
Posted by: jerri on February 8, 2007 at 6:49 PM | PERMALINK
She was assassinated.
By the liberal media.
Having used her to subvert the unwary into her godless spectacle of bald hedonism they throw her aside like some unchewable thing among chewed spinach.
Is there no depth of self-gratification the Speaker Pelosi led moonbats for Hillary will not plumb?
Posted by: cld on February 8, 2007 at 6:53 PM | PERMALINK
Is there no depth of self-gratification the Speaker Pelosi led moonbats for Hillary will not plumb?
Another fucking moron checks in.
Why is it that today's repukeliscum morons are so stupid?
Posted by: POed Lib on February 8, 2007 at 7:00 PM | PERMALINK
Why is it that today's repukeliscum morons are so stupid?
Because those that aren't stupid have abandoned the Bush Cult, leaving only the dead-enders?
Posted by: cmdicely on February 8, 2007 at 7:08 PM | PERMALINK
Why is it that today's repukeliscum morons are so stupid?
Bad drugs!
Posted by: thersites on February 8, 2007 at 7:09 PM | PERMALINK
We are spending American blood and treasure to create and train the next generation of terrorists.
Look, the authoritarians are just investing in job security by guaranteeing continuity in the external threat that "justifies" the sacrifice of freedoms.
Posted by: cmdicely on February 8, 2007 at 7:09 PM | PERMALINK
Thank you America for the Springfield 03 sniper training.
Sgt Akmed al-York
Posted by: Sgt Akmed al-York on February 8, 2007 at 7:23 PM | PERMALINK
"...hey throw her aside like some unchewable thing among chewed spinach"
Just like your brain rejects knowledge like some unknowable thing among knowable things. Really nice prose, by the way. Very prosey!
Posted by: Kenji on February 8, 2007 at 7:39 PM | PERMALINK
Yes, the enemy has new capability, probably with the help of Iran. … we're not fighting to take over the country….I have no doubt that a large majority of Iraqis wants our side to succeed.ex-lax at 1:49 PM
You need to get out and read more because the story is that they are using our training. There is no evidence of Iranian influence; and, no, the majority of Iraqi's are against us for the simple reason they believe we are trying to steal their resources. It's a difficult motivation to conceal.
Winston Churchill: "We shall never surrende Frequency Kenneth at 1:59 PM
Was Churchill fighting an unjustified war of aggression or a war against an aggressor?
Now which is analogous to what Bush is doing in Iraq?
.. . Has anyone seen, read, heard anyone compare the Russian invasion/occupation of Afghanistan…Bluesguy at 3:58 PM
In those days, it was the Reagan administration that armed and supported the mujahideen, taking the role that Bush is trying to credit to Iran. Of course, that came back to bite us in the butt by the other famous law, that of unintended consequences.
Posted by: Mike on February 8, 2007 at 7:46 PM | PERMALINK
I believe cld was citing parody.
This whole sordid business is depressing.
America had better wake up and send some people to f*ckin' jail.
The neocons are trying to preserve the imperial fantasy through the force of their lies, but they better worry about losing the country.
But being elitists, they believe they are immune.
Posted by: former marine in ny on February 8, 2007 at 7:52 PM | PERMALINK
http://www.americanprogress.org/issues/2006/12/pdf/iraq_memo.pdf
In a letter to Congress, The Center for American Progress offers an excellent analysis.
In summary: promote a DIPLOMATIC SURGE and oppose military escalation.
Ignore the advice from those responsible for the Iraq quagmire.
Exercise the proper constitutional role of Congress in guiding Iraq policy.
Very much worth reading.
We need to redeploy our forces and use statesmanship and skill with new, diplomatic overtures.
Instead, this administration has chosen to blame the generals, and the way forward has been more violent, in the midst of a civil war.
Posted by: consider wisely always on February 8, 2007 at 8:00 PM | PERMALINK
Ah, Kevin.
I hear today they just arrest one of those Sadrists today in one of the government ministries. He was apparently one of those responsible for allowing Sadrists into the Iraq military. THis shows we've identified those parties who are undermining us, and we're pushing back.
The surge is more than just more boots on the ground. It's fighting smarter, being one step ahead of your enemy, whipping the rug out from under their feet.
I really liked when I heard this today. These guys know what their doing. Its good to have confidence in your leaders. You should try it sometime.
Posted by: egbert on February 8, 2007 at 9:43 PM | PERMALINK
gosh, Pollyanna, err.. egbert. I'm glad they found the guy who let all the militiamen into the govt ministries. This is really going to change things.
Now if we can just find the guy who put all those IED's out. He's the guy that really needs catching. Or that guy keeps killing our soldiers. Damn that guy.
Posted by: Absent Observer on February 8, 2007 at 10:58 PM | PERMALINK
egfart: "Its good to have confidence in your leaders. You should try it sometime."
It's nice to be nice to the nice! And it's (note sp.) good to have leaders worth trusting.
Your childish assertion is most revealing. Next time, have daddy spell-check for you!
Posted by: Kenji on February 8, 2007 at 11:22 PM | PERMALINK
But being elitists, they believe they are immune.
I do not know what the percentages of Hutus to Tutsis is, but I have read that most of the wealth and political power of Rwanda were owned by the minority Tutsis. I am not advocating the horrible mass murder that the Hutus perpetrated against the Tutsis, but pointing out what happens when the dominate demographic faction is suppressed both economically and politically. Many have called the Hutu murder of Tutsis genocide, but it looks to me today like revolution of the underclass. I think there is probably a correlation between how long and deep the oppression of a majority's popular will lasts and the violent reaction that overthrows it.
The violence between the Sunnis and Shiites of Iraq was bound to manifest itself in the ways happening now after the fall of Saddam and the weakening of the Baathists. The US invasion hastened that time. The US should condemn the sectarian violence in Iraq, but there is nothing that the US military can do about it but make it worse and prolong it.
Posted by: Brojo on February 8, 2007 at 11:28 PM | PERMALINK
Ah, Kevin.
I hear today from Fox News that something positive happened.
The surge is more than just more boots on the ground. It's a total PR campaign made to make dumbshits like me swallow a wad of vomit dropped into my willing, open throat.
I really liked when I heard this today. It made my conspicuously small dick seem at least 3mm bigger when I stared at it from an obique angle. These guys know what their doing, especially when I close my eyes first and make those "Mmmm" sounds like I'm really enjoying it. Its good to have confidence in your leaders when you're going down on them. You should try it sometime.
Egspurt
Posted by: Egspurt on February 9, 2007 at 1:23 AM | PERMALINK
"I wonder what kind of parallels there might be in comparing our fiasco in Iraq with the Soviets in Afghanistan? Vietnam comparisons are rampant. Has anyone seen, read, heard anyone compare the Russian invasion/occupation of Afghanistan in the early 80's to what we are now stuck in?"
Posted by: Bluesguy on February 8, 2007 at 3:58 PM |
I remember some sort of CIA projection of Russia's (then USSR) oil output over the next 20 years or so (from 1980-2000) and it showed Russia switching from a net exporter of oil to a net importer by this time. Hmmm. Looks like they got that analysis quite wrong. But, that was when we needed to support the Mujahadeen in Afghanistan in the early 80's in the Reagan administration and we worried that (surprise!) that they would seize the Persian Gulf oil fields because they were running out.....
Posted by: Doc at the Radar Station on February 9, 2007 at 1:31 AM | PERMALINK
egbert, egbert --
Remember all those guys turned over for bounties that turned out to have done nothng even though we tortured them and kept them in prison for years?
You think this guy stepped on someone's turf and needed taking out of the way?
More cynicism, please!
Posted by: notthere on February 9, 2007 at 1:33 AM | PERMALINK
The really sad thing about this war is that it was founded upon delusion and has been fought the same way ever since.
We have never got out ahead of the insurgency, never understood the divisions, never understood that we were being manipulated -- whether by PNACnuts, Iraqi ex-pats, or those power bases within Iraq -- from long before the first boot landed.
US the nave. When will we ever learn?
What adaptation has the military shown since 2003? More importantly, what flexibility among the politicos? NONE!
Posted by: notthere on February 9, 2007 at 1:44 AM | PERMALINK
Kevin may be right that it's hopeless, but nobody knows this today....
Posted by: ex-liberal on February 8, 2007 at 1:49 PM | PERMALINK
Says it all, really. Longer than WWII and achieved what? What more do we need to know? Have we tried any alternative strategies? NO!
Devoid of ideas. Devoid of flexibility. Devoid of finding a solution.
Intellectually barren would describe.
The first 21st Century Gallipoli.
Posted by: notthere on February 9, 2007 at 1:50 AM | PERMALINK
Yes, I realize I'm talking to myself.
Here's one for you all.
We made damn sure to tweak USSR's tail in Afghanistan. Why wouldn't Russia be doing the same now?? Both in Afghanistan and Iraq. They win for a small investment, same as we did.
Posted by: notthere on February 9, 2007 at 2:01 AM | PERMALINK
Frequency Kenneth writes:
Winston Churchill: "We shall never surrender."
Democrats: "We surrender!"
"All propaganda must be so popular and on such an intellectual level, that even the most stupid of those toward whom it is directed will understand it..."
- Adolf Hitler
Posted by: Andy on February 9, 2007 at 2:07 AM | PERMALINK
Winston Churchill: "We shall never surrender."...
Posted by: Frequency Kenneth on February 8, 2007 at 1:59 PM | PERMALINK
Differeneces between Winston and present-day Republicans:
1) Winston KNEW his history;
2} Winston tried to learn from his mistakes;
3) Winston tasted and recognized his own failure;
4) Winston was a man of personal courage, both in battle and politically;
5) Winston was a man of principle;
6) Winston made extra money honestly, by doing his own writing and speaking that others actually wanted to read and hear.
Bush or Cheney get any hits on that?
Posted by: notthere on February 9, 2007 at 2:13 AM | PERMALINK
Andy --
It wasn't propaganda.
It was the equivalent of Shakespeare's St. Crispin's Day Speech by King Henry (Henry V), to rouse, stiffen and encourage. And it had that effect. Real life; not a play. That is quite an achievement as Britain's state (1940) was every bit as precarious as Henry's army in northern France, 1415.
It wasn't propaganda as it made no false promises. It wouldn't have worked otherswise.
The difference is that these guys who profess to look back to W.S. Churchill with admiration have no idea about the truths of his life. THEY propagandize it.
Excuse me if I take offence!
As I do when USians tell me that WWII started with Pearl Harbor!
Posted by: notthere on February 9, 2007 at 2:24 AM | PERMALINK
http://www.tomdispatch.com/index.mhtml?pid=163152
They only want military action, or at least another One Hundred Years War.
When he was governor of Texas, dubya said "victory means exit strategy, and it is important for the president to explain what the exit strategy is." How ironic.
The above article further describes the escalation of military action in Iraq, the author Nick Turse likening the situation to the secret bombing of Cambodia back in Vietnam.
Posted by: consider wisely always on February 9, 2007 at 5:35 AM | PERMALINK
I pray the helicopter crashes are not the result of Iran-supplied antiaircraft weapons. Otherwise, we have a new war on our hands.
Posted by: bob h on February 9, 2007 at 7:22 AM | PERMALINK
Henry V - That's it - The Iraqis have resurrected the Long Bow - Plus a further use for the middle finger. Aguincourt II is nigh.
Posted by: thethirdPaul on February 9, 2007 at 11:27 AM | PERMALINK
Aguincourt II is nigh
are you calling us the French? wait a minute, i don't get literary references. never mind.
(an)al
Posted by: <an)al on February 9, 2007 at 11:49 AM | PERMALINK
I am with Brojo, the Mahdi Army is our defacto ally. The more training and equipment they get, the faster our side wins the war.
If it weren't for Cheney taking bribes from Saudi princes, we would ave been out of there six months ago.
Posted by: Matt on February 9, 2007 at 4:31 PM | PERMALINK