Editore"s Note
Tilting at Windmills

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March 26, 2007
By: Kevin Drum

EGYPTIAN REFERENDUM UPDATE....The polls have closed in Egypt and Marc Lynch reports that turnout was abysmal -- though it's not likely that this will be reflected in the official results. Also:

Most Arab outlets are reporting that Condoleeza Rice softened her criticisms of the referendum after meeting with Mubarak. How humiliating, how predictable. Abou el-Gheit is spooning out the terrorism angle -- we must do this to protect ourselves, just as you did with your Patriot Act -- and Rice (and at least some of the media) seems to be eating it up whatever the flavor. Yes, how could Egypt possibly fight its great terror menace while judges are supervising elections?

So what results do you think the Egyptian government will announce? I'll go with 80% -- high enough to be "overwhelming approval" but not so high that it gets into mockworthy Saddam Hussein territory. Place your own bet in comments.

Kevin Drum 3:03 PM Permalink | Trackbacks | Comments (23)
 
Comments

The former Pakistani dictator, Zia ul-Haq, well understood how to make himself necessary to the US and how to exploit the claim of Democracy while violating all its principles.

Just for fun, check out these stamps from the 1984 Referendum: Link 1, Link 2

"Overwhelming mandate by the people"!

Posted by: bubba on March 26, 2007 at 3:26 PM | PERMALINK

I don´t think they will go to such heights; I say 40%. (As the real percentage maybe somewhere around 10%.)

Posted by: Notme on March 26, 2007 at 3:29 PM | PERMALINK

OK, so Link 2 above is the 84 referendum stamp. Link 1 are stamps from the equally bogus 85 general elections.

Posted by: bubba on March 26, 2007 at 3:29 PM | PERMALINK

81%

Wait, does this work like The Price is Right?

Posted by: The Eye of Ra on March 26, 2007 at 3:29 PM | PERMALINK

"I don't think anyone can anticipate...."

Posted by: condaleeza rice on March 26, 2007 at 3:34 PM | PERMALINK

A humble 73%.

What do I win?

Posted by: gussie on March 26, 2007 at 3:42 PM | PERMALINK

I'll boldly go for 99.2% but only 'cause the other .8% had problems with hanging chads.

Posted by: MsNThrope on March 26, 2007 at 3:45 PM | PERMALINK

Mubarak runs things just the way Bush would if he could, so why would any loyal Bushie disapprove?

Posted by: Steve LaBonne on March 26, 2007 at 3:46 PM | PERMALINK

Did they get the Diebold machines set up?

Posted by: Extradite Rumsfeld on March 26, 2007 at 3:57 PM | PERMALINK

Did they get the Diebold machines set up?
Posted by: Extradite Rumsfeld

Wanna make a side bet as to who gets the ATM concession in Cairo?

Posted by: MsNThrope on March 26, 2007 at 4:01 PM | PERMALINK

I vote for a 74% turnout and an 69% approval vote.

Posted by: amerlcan buzrd on March 26, 2007 at 5:05 PM | PERMALINK

I flew the second US military cargo aircraft to land in Egypt after the Camp David accords. Landed on an Egyptian airfield still cluttered with junk from the 1973 Yom Kippur War - pieces of airplanes and bomb craters all around. I suppose they decided it was too much trouble to clean up. I had to put a crewmember out so he could kick pieces of debris out of the way of our Starlifter as we taxied in. I forget what we were delivering to the Egyptians - from what I could see, what they needed most was plumbing supplies, forget guns.

I've been back a dozen times since and Egypt has gotten better, though it's hardly a miracle of democracy. Back in 1979, it was normal for your van driver to get out and beat off the beggars with a rubber hose so you could exit the vehicle. Bedouins lined the roads into Cairo living in squalid tents. Now, at least, the beggars are trying to sell you something.

Our coddling of the Egyptians is about what you'd expect, given the political intracacies in the region. Progress is slow, but there has been some progress. The people I blame most for the lack of real freedom are the well to do, college educated Egyptians. The bastards know better, yet their own comforts always come before the future of their country.

Posted by: Trashhauler on March 26, 2007 at 6:24 PM | PERMALINK

I understand that Condoleeza Rice is an accomplished piano player and shopper.

Secretary of State, not so much.

Posted by: FitterDon on March 26, 2007 at 6:32 PM | PERMALINK

"The people I blame most for the lack of real freedom are the well to do, college educated Egyptians. The bastards know better, yet their own comforts always come before the future of their country."
Why should their elite be any different from ours?

Posted by: smartalek on March 26, 2007 at 8:04 PM | PERMALINK

A truly democratic election in Egypt would probably conform to our worst fears. Eqyptian do not want a parliamentary democracy or a Republic, they would likely vote overwhemingly for Islamic fundamentalism. The Economist had a very good article on point with a strong argument against hoping for self-determination in Egypt a couple years ago.

Posted by: Joe on March 26, 2007 at 9:03 PM | PERMALINK

smartalek wrote:

"Why should their elite be any different from ours?"
_________________

I dunno, smartalek. Personally, I've been privileged to know many Americans who have repeatedly placed their country over their comfort and even their lives. I don't know if you'd call them all elite. But I do.

Posted by: Trashhauler on March 26, 2007 at 11:38 PM | PERMALINK

Hey, Trashhauler (and I ain't so certain I wasn't some of the trash you hauled...) I have totally rethought my take on the Tillamn leak/four Generals story.

I think I was had with a leak of a story they wanted to be old news by Monday when the rest of the world learned about it...
\
I'll explain when I'm sober...

Posted by: Blue Girl, Red State (aka G.C) on March 26, 2007 at 11:44 PM | PERMALINK

Personally, I've been privileged to know many Americans who have repeatedly placed their country over their comfort and even their lives.

Been proud to do so for all my life. First as a Navy brat, then as an Army Reserves Officer, then a SAC officer's wife. Now, as a Homeland Security trained first responder.

Posted by: Blue Girl, Red State (aka G.C) on March 26, 2007 at 11:47 PM | PERMALINK

Oh good lord. Never blog while drinking.

Posted by: Blue Girl, Red State (aka G.C) on March 26, 2007 at 11:49 PM | PERMALINK

It's okay, Blue Girl. We've all been there, done that, and slopped beer on our t-shirts.

Get some sleep, hon. ::smile::

Posted by: Trashhauler on March 26, 2007 at 11:55 PM | PERMALINK

Sleep is on the horizon...

{::grinning till my jaws hurt::}

Posted by: Blue Girl, Red State (aka G.C) on March 27, 2007 at 12:01 AM | PERMALINK

When I went through the Suez Canal in around '79, there were still burned out tanks visible. You'd think the lazy motherfuckers would clean up a little.

Posted by: merlallen on March 27, 2007 at 7:22 AM | PERMALINK

The official results are out:
Turnout: 27.1%
Yes: 74.9%

I'm on the ground, and have been able to look around, and in my opinion is that the real results should have been:

Turnout: 7-8%
Yes: 90% (Those opposed boycotted the vote altogether)

However, an elaborate and sophisitcated operation was undertaken to raise the number of voters, and achieve a credible result too.

Posted by: Emz on March 27, 2007 at 7:41 AM | PERMALINK




 

 
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