The real question is if he can regain the Ferret vote.

So that leaves Romney and McCain.

2 sides to every coin.

I don't think there is much to like about Rudy so there will be no tears here.

On the other side, this would be the first mainline move to reclaim the Republican party from the US taliban. It will then be far easier for the next and the next to talk sense back into the party.

If the party as a whole is able to move away from its present neo-fascism, that can only be for the better. For them and the nation.

So the Straight Jacket Express is the last ride out of town? Sounds about right...

'screwed and he knows it', but it also feeds into the theme of those people who like to think of themselves as Republicans, but are now faced with being unable to support the party from any point of view.

He wants to spearhead a take back the party movement.

But I think it won't work, because those people simply don't want to be associated with a party that continues to be represented by people like (that dope whose name I can't think of who was on Andersen Cooper tonight).

Their brandedness neurons have had a shock of un-branding and they're unlikely to respond without a clear field, which means that first all these assorted evil chumps have to go.

Not that they'll be happy to vote Democratic, but they will be happy to vote against Tom Delay and Dick Cheney.

So, I think the best thing Giuliani could do is actually to talk about prosecuting Cheney.

I'm happy with all three of them running--in a sack race, if need be.

The next six months will be critical for Guiliani. Don't declare him screwed -- give him the resources to get the job done! Why are you so anti-Guiliani? To give up on Giuliani now is to allow the terrorists to follow him home, and attack us here. The only acceptable option is to take Guiliani without benchmarks; America is waiting for you to come to the table in good faith and work together to bring America a clean Guiliani.

To give up on Giuliani now

Four Guilianis and you had to spoil it!

it is indeed hard to see how Rudy makes it past any GOP primary in the bible belt with his pro-gay, pro-abortion past. it just won't work outside of a major metropolitan area.

Sure, sure -- 9/11, America's mayor, blah, blah, blah --- people just aren't that afraid of terrorists any more. the scary memories where he was the comforting daddy are all faded now, so he's just coasting on name recognition until the negative ads start, then he's crispy toast.

[FADE IN FROM BLACK
FX: loud piano chord
CLOSEUP mockup of planned parenthood card with Rudy's name in big red letters
SCARY ANNOUNCER DUDE: did *you* know Rudy was really with the baby killers?
FX baby crying in the next room
CLOSEUP shocked mother, gasping
SHOCKED MOTHER: I-- I-- I just didn't know! I can't vote for that man now!
SCARY ANNOUNCER DUDE: Now *you* know the full story. Vote for fill in blank here -- he's pro-life and proud of it. Your baby's life just may depend on it.
]

Encourage Rudy to run as a "Ross Perot" independent.

Willard Romney's wife also gave to Planned Parenthood.

So the Straight Jacket Express is the last ride out of town? Sounds about right...

In 2000, McCain did about as good a run as one can do for the GOP nomination these days without playing to the fundies, and still lost despite attracting a lot of crossover support from Dems and Dem-leaning independents in open-primary states.

It's hard to see Giuliani's "Straight Jacket Express" (that's brilliant, BGRS!) doing as well as McCain's "Straight Talk Express." And he's certainly not going to get enough crossover help to make a difference.

The one advantage Giuliani 2008 has over McCain 2000 is that his opposition's divided, while McCain was going up against the presumptive nominee in Bush that both the base and the party establishment was united behind.

We'll see how far that gets him.

Sadly for them, Republicans go to the Primaries with the Giuliani they have, not the Giuliani they wish they had.

They wish Giuliani was a strong leader, but he's a rage-oholic tyrant prone to irrational decisions & inexplicable meltdowns (see ferrets). They wish he was strong on "family values, but he's a thrice wed, philandering cross-dresser who dumped his wife at a news conference before trying to move his mistress into the mayorial mansion. The list goes on & on. Not strong on terror, foreign policy, corruption or economic management.

Mostly these failings come down to his personal indiscretion, instability & incompetence. With abortion, however, recent equivocations notwithstanding, Giuliani seems to have a genuine, longheld, philosophic & ethical position. It seems ironically appropriate that Rudy will likely lose the GOP nomination on the basis of the only thing about which he's been so consistent, logical, fearless & leader-like.

Jeb is thinking "They'll come crawing and beg me to run".

Today's revelations about his donations to Planned Parenthood took waffling off the table as a feasible campaign strategy.

Yes that's right. Of course the likes of John Kerry or Bill Clinton would just continue waffling anyway.

The Republican midgets vying for the nomination would be better off sticking to something they know about - like bashing gay marriage or demonizing immigrants. You know - their whole "Bridge to the 18th Century" meme.

"Jeb is thinking "They'll come crawing and beg me to run". He may think that but he's probably also thinking, "George has almost certainly made it impossible for me to win"

The guy who could make a real run in the general is Lincoln Chafee.

Actually, the world series rings will probably get more talk on sports radio than abortion will on mainstream media.

He could win the nomination (given the field -- who else will the base vote for), but the base would also stay home for the general.

Where does the base go if Rudy wins the nomination. In a rational world, the base would get effective analysis of the positions and be informed enough to make a selection. The people they rely on to give them that analysis won't. Instead the voters get info about hairstyles, polo shirts, previous marriages, and a whole series of WWJD questions.
The electoral process in this country is broken and until and unless the media get off their collective ass and write about the issues and not the personalities, the voters will make choices like GwB.

Shall we poll the terrorists to see who they want to be in office? It won't be any of the Republican candidates.

Agreed. The terrorists would vote to give GWB a third term.

a few weeks ago, rudy made the statement that it's time the party got beyond the abortion issue. had he stayed with that thinking instead of his backtracking, cynical pandering to the yahoos, i think he could have pulled it off. he would have shown himself to be willing to take an independent stance on a divisive issue within his party.

but he chose to pander. so, tough cookies.

I am thinking about seeking the Republican nomination just so Democrats will have someone credible to vote against. I will need the lefty blogs help --> once I announce, be sure to comment how frightened you are of my candidacy since I can surely beat HRC/Obama. This should give most Republicans all the justification they need to vote for me eventhough I am more liberal than either candidate. Cakewalk 2008: Liberal but not black or a Clinton or maybe Cakewalk for America: Keep Clenis out of the Whitehouse

Good for Rudy. Yes, he's doing it because he doesn't have much of a choice, but that hasn't stopped Mitten Romney from declaring his new-found opposition to abortion (and gun rights, an gay rights, and...). I have at least a sliver more respect for Guiliani. Is it enough for him to win? I doubt it, but we'll see.

He's screwed and he knows it.

He???

They're all screwed from A to ZED.

The angry white male is finally defunct.
Stick a wooden fork in him.

All they've got left now is destroying the comment sections on posts about Barack Obama, stock car racing, and burpy Bud beer.

If the Bushpiracy had been on top of its game, it would have given us JEB! in 2000. Instead, they gave us their fool. I doubt that Republicans will ever consider Jeb, even if he would be the best of a bad lot of candidates.

Shorter Orwell:

I like to whistle in grave yards while yanking on a bottle of Southern Comfort.

The only problem with Angry white right wingers actually do something about problems is that they generally muck things up. You know the old ready, fire, aim approach for which GwB is rightly famous (well, except for the ready and the aim).
Iraq.
Katrina.
Terri Schiavo.
Harriet Miers.
usw.
usw.
Good grief, they can't even fire people they have a perfect right to fire without screwing it up and/or lying about it.

Worst. President. Ever.

"Angry white right wingers actually do something about problems"

That explains why it is so difficult for many to get an appointment with a proctologist.

Rudy's strategy is to go full steam ahead, no apologies, to be the one candidate who is crazier than a sh-thouse rat. Why not? It worked in NYC for all those years.

That and, of course, 9/11-9/11-9/11-9/11.

In the end, 9/11 will make or break Rudy.

The only candidate who has a chance of stopping him is McCain -- because only McCain has the rabid attack dogs working for him.

If I say "President Bush" to the typical white male liberal he becomes a red faced vein popping lunatic who breaths murderous threats and rants long after I have walked out of the room.

That's rich -- as if you ever leave your mother's basement....

(Oh, yeah, learn to spell your god's name, for kristsake.)

To give up on Giuliani now

Four Guilianis and you had to spoil it!

Posted by: Does it SOUND like gwilliani?

My wife has a Rule (formed in the Dukakis and Cuomo "campaigns") -- "Nobody is going to get elected President who has a funny name." Corollary 1 -- "Nobody will get elected President whose name ends in a vowel," and Corollary 2 -- "Nobody will get elected President whose name is hard to spell." There is a "genuine war hero" exception to the main axiom perhaps, Eisenhower, but otherwise looks pretty good to me.

Orwell: Think of it this way: For every rant you have ever written and said about Bush, put Clinton's name in place of the name "Bush" the sentence and you will now understand a large section of the Republican party.

As in: Didn't Hillary look silly strutting across the deck of an aircraft carrier in a flightsuit?

You know, it is entirely possible that fewer Republicans are obsessed with abortion than what "conventional wisdom" would have us believe.

I think this is a good move for Rudy, if nothing else it distinguishes him from the rest of the field.

a clean Guiliani.

That's gonna take some work [and spin].

Give it up Orwell.

Oh, I see from your 9:48 post you already have.

Think of it this way: For every rant you have ever written and said about Bush, put Clinton's name in place of the name "Bush" the sentence and you will now understand a large section of the Republican party.

As in: Can you believe Clinton pissed away the federal bugdet surplus and left our children with a massive budget deficit which it will take generations to repay?

As in: wasn't it awful for Clinton to do nothing while all those people in New Orleans drowned?

Orwell: Shall we poll the terrorists to see who they want to be in office? It won't be any of the Republican candidates.

I prefer to poll the American people to see who they want. (Hint: it won't be any of the Republican candidates).

"You know, it is entirely possible that fewer Republicans are obsessed with abortion than what "conventional wisdom" would have us believe.

I think this is a good move for Rudy, if nothing else it distinguishes him from the rest of the field."

I, unfortunately, agree. Assuming he can make it to the general election, all of those "moderates" currently leaning Democratic could easily switch. They don't care about abortion, torture, detention without trial, etc. All they care about are tax cuts, and they can always count on a Republican, no matter how liberal or conservative on other issues, to deliver there.

I'm just hoping that the wingnuts for whom abortion is the sole defining issue can't bring themselve to vote for Rudy in the primaries. Of course, those people are more animated by a tribalistic support of their side and an irrational fear of liberals than anything resembling principle.

I was going to post in response to Whorewell, but Stefan took care of it for me. Well played Stefan.

OK. Looks like Guilianni is reduced to second to anyone else. Without the base, he will not be the nominee. That leaves McCain and Romney.

But McCain's success is tied to us getting out of Iraq before the nomination. At the same time, Bush and Cheney are promising Saudi King Abdullah that we will remain in Iraq until the end of Bush's term, at least 18 months. That's the big reason for Cheney's current trip to Saudi Arabis, to firm up that promise. That screws McCain's chances completely, that and the fact that McCain is showing his age.

Which leaves Romney, who is still an attractive TV candidate with a Hell of a lot of money. None of Romney's negatives seem to me at this time to be as significant as those of Guillianni or McCain. The weaknesses of those two probably will get Fred Thompson to try his hand, but he will just split the anyone-but-Romney vote even more.

So I agree with Kevin's earlier diagnosis of the illnesses of the republicans. We can probably expect the Presidential race to be Romney and a highly qualified Democrat to be named later.

The Village Voice has a great piece about Rudy's Yankee rings (among other goodies).

http://www.villagevoice.com/news/0719,barrett,76566,2.html

It's hard to predict who will be the Republican nominee. Giuliani has the abortion problem, as well as the messy divorce. I can think of no candidate who has gone from Mayor to President. OTOH he speaks well and sounds reasonable. He can boast of high achievements as Mayor. He looks like the candidate with the best chance to win in November.

Other candidates also have weaknesses. McCain is old, and he has burned his bridges with many Republicans. Romney is a minority and a flip-flopper.He seems plastic. His wife has donated to Planned Parenthood. Fred Thompson lacks experience and lacks focus on governing. If he enters the race, intensive digging is bound to bring out negatives that we don't know about now.

It seems to me that Giuliani still has a reasonable shot, since no other candidate is overwhelming. My money is still on Romney, because his campaign is so well organized.

Bring 'em on, whoever they are. They all seem created to make Bob Dole look fantastic.

I dunno. "Hillary Clinton: Like a Rock. Only dumber." It just doesn't have the same ring to it.

If one of the snake-handler candidates (Brownback or Huckabee) broke against the war, it could really get interesting. But the war is really all that matters at this point, not the abortion stances or the divorces or whatever. And any Republican candidate that doesn't credibly promise to end the war is Hubert Humphrey in 1968. Even that segment of the electorate that usually favors war can't stand the stink of failure about this thing.

You know, it is entirely possible that fewer Republicans are obsessed with abortion than what "conventional wisdom" would have us believe.

I think this is a good move for Rudy, if nothing else it distinguishes him from the rest of the field.
Posted by: Dan T. on May 10, 2007 at 10:32 AM

Well, I do know a Republican female that also is a Bible-thumper that is planning to vote for Guiliani. She's a Christian, but she believes in abortion rights. Hmmm. Maybe there is a demographic in play here...

"But my money's on conventional wisdom."

Kevin, your money is ALWAYS on conventional wisdom.

Hard to say. It depends on what the dominant feeling among Republican primary voters is. If Bush succeeds in pushing everyone who isn't in his authoritarian cult out of the party, Giuliani might appeal to those who remain: they want someone to give them orders. But the megachurch vote isn't going for Rudy. Problem is, where can it go? They don't like McCain or Romney either. Brownback, perhaps.

It's not like nobody knew that he was pro-choice. I mean he's been pro-choice throughout his entire political career. Did people think that he was suddenly going to become pro-life just to try to win the nomination? Maybe conservative Republican's have been trying to delude themselves into believing that he's not really pro-choice, but if so they've been fooling nobody but themselves.

Also keep in mind that Rudy has been polling about 25-35% in the Republican primaries so far. While everyone likes to believe that the Republican party is a conservative Christian monolith, the truth is that a significant number of Republicans probably are pro-choice.

"It's not like nobody knew that he was pro-choice. I mean he's been pro-choice throughout his entire political career. Did people think that he was suddenly going to become pro-life just to try to win the nomination? "

That's what Republican candidates usually do, so yeah it seemed likely (cf. GHW Bush and Romney).

Let us leave aside for a moment the usual "snake handler" "yahoo" attitudes towards non-secularist Americans that are so common within the liberal blogosphere and look rationally at the truth.

The 'blob of tissue' argument has not politically survived the invention of the ultrasound. You can look at it and see very clearly a baby. In the face of this the argument that killing it is a right because it's birth would be inconvenient to your career is seen by more and more Americans as selfish and barbaric. How many people think that abortion is a 'choice' that anyone has a right to be proud of ? The tide of public opinion is shifting.

Giuliani's positions on partial birth abortion and taxpayer funded abortions may seem perfectly natural in a hypercompetitive Manhattan culture where people live to work 10 hour workdays and children are a burden but they are way out of whack with the rest of the country. Sure, Giuliani is the quintessential metro Republican candidate. But he will not appeal to those benighted 'snake handler' 'yahoo' parts of the country where children are actually wanted and loved.

Without social conservatism, there is no reason for anyone outside of a country club or a boardroom to vote Republican. Where will the base go with Rudy as a candidate ? Well once upon a time the social conservatives were New Deal Democrats and William Jennings Bryan Populists and all Rudy is offering is a continuation of Bush's perpetual war, cheap labor globalist policies that hurt them. A democrat running on economic populism can get their votes. After all 61% of the American people are afraid of their jobs being offshored. That is a much more real threat than al-Qaeda.

You can look at it and see very clearly a baby.

Come to Chicago and I'll show you where you can clearly see the Virgin Mary in a water stain under an interstate overpass.

Disputo: Have you ever seen an ultrasound of your own child or any other child?

Thought so.

BTW, I'm firmly pro-choice.

Crissy,

Yes, I have.

Is that what you thought?

I love the smell of burning candidates in the morning.

"Shall we poll the terrorists to see who they want to be in office? It won't be any of the Republican candidates."

LOL! Osama already made it clear he wanted Bush in office for a second term back in 2004. Having the Republicans in charge the last 6.5 years have been the best thing OBL and Al Qaeda could have hoped for. The Iraq invasion has been a godsend for those guys.

As someone who lives and works among conservative evangelicals, I'm inclined to share Glenn Greenwald's view that, with a lot of these people, Rudy's presumed hawkishness in the War on Islam --oops, I mean the War on Terror-- may well counterbalance his moderation on the culture-war stuff.