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May 15, 2007

PUTTING THE CRAZIES BACK IN THE BOX....Remember that plan from last February to send a third carrier group to the Persian Gulf in order to rattle a few sabers at Iran? Newsweek reported it in their February 19 issue, but then carried a correction saying that "In fact, the USS Nimitz is scheduled to replace one of the other carrier groups operating there." (Italics mine.) Later, when the Nimitz carrier strike group sailed from San Diego, the Navy reported that it would indeed be a replacement, not an addition. "There is no plan to overlap them at all," they said.

So what really happened? There's no telling for sure, but Gareth Porter claims that there was originally a plan to overlap the carrier groups, but that it was scuttled by Admiral William Fallon, who had been appointed as the new CENTCOM commander at around the time the plan was hatched. Here's his story:

Fallon, who was scheduled to become the CENTCOM chief Mar. 16, responded to the proposed plan by sending a strongly-worded message to the Defence Department in mid-February opposing any further U.S. naval buildup in the Persian Gulf as unwarranted.

"He asked why another aircraft carrier was needed in the Gulf and insisted there was no military requirement for it," says the source, who obtained the gist of Fallon's message from a Pentagon official who had read it.

Fallon's refusal to support a further naval buildup in the Gulf reflected his firm opposition to an attack on Iran and an apparent readiness to put his career on the line to prevent it. A source who met privately with Fallon around the time of his confirmation hearing and who insists on anonymity quoted Fallon as saying that an attack on Iran "will not happen on my watch".

Asked how he could be sure, the source says, Fallon replied, "You know what choices I have. I'm a professional." Fallon said that he was not alone, according to the source, adding, "There are several of us trying to put the crazies back in the box."

Needless to say, an anonymous source who "obtained the gist of Fallon's message from a Pentagon official who had read it" should be taken with a grain of salt. But a second source seems to have backed up the story, so it seems like a bit of gossip worth passing along. Porter goes on to say that "The defeat of the plan for a third carrier task group in the Gulf appears to have weakened the position of Cheney and other hawks in the administration who had succeeded in selling Bush on the idea of a strategy of coercive threat against Iran."

Interesting stuff, no? I'll be curious to see if anyone else confirms it.

Kevin Drum 3:00 PM Permalink | Trackbacks | Comments (66)
 
Comments

I wondered what happened to that strike we were supposed to make on Easter weekend or the following one. Is it me, or has Iran been in the news less these days?

Posted by: pol on May 15, 2007 at 3:29 PM | PERMALINK

We won't have Jerry Falwell pushing for a attack!

Posted by: R.L. on May 15, 2007 at 3:29 PM | PERMALINK

Oh, you're NOT talking about Falwell. My mistake.

Posted by: razorboy on May 15, 2007 at 3:29 PM | PERMALINK

I've mixed feelings about this. If it's true, I love it for the next 2 years.

Posted by: MNPundit on May 15, 2007 at 3:29 PM | PERMALINK

With Gates and Fallon out of his control, Big Time can't be a happy camper. Will he get pissed and resign for "health reasons"?

Posted by: Blue Girl, Red State (aka G.C.) on May 15, 2007 at 3:31 PM | PERMALINK

I will confirm it. My own anonymous source held a glass against the wall and heard the whole thing.

Posted by: wishIwuz2 on May 15, 2007 at 3:34 PM | PERMALINK

Maybe Cheney will resign to spend more time with his new grandchild.

Posted by: wishIwuz2 on May 15, 2007 at 3:36 PM | PERMALINK

The Crazies.
I like it. Has a nice ring to it.

Posted by: Northern Observer on May 15, 2007 at 3:39 PM | PERMALINK

Interesting stuff, no? I'll be curious to see if anyone else confirms it. —Kevin Drum

As no one in the current administration will go on record about anything anymore, don't hold your breath for independent or "authoritative" corroberation.

I thought Seymour Hirsch had written about this as well?

Posted by: JeffII on May 15, 2007 at 3:40 PM | PERMALINK

Ah, Kevin.

We were never going to invade Iran, Kevin. That was all fantasy talk from Seymour Hersh and other liberal bloggers. And you accepted it hook line and sinker.

That said, all options should be on the table. That threat alone should be enough to keep Ahcmadinajad in his cage. After he saw what happened to Saddam, he's not likely to stray too far from his leash.

Posted by: egbert on May 15, 2007 at 3:41 PM | PERMALINK

eggy-butt,

My morning radio guy pronounced it "I'm a dinner jacket".

I get a chuckle out of the dumbest things before coffee...

Posted by: wishIwuz2 on May 15, 2007 at 3:48 PM | PERMALINK

Well, Egbert is useful for defining the limits of human intelligence. On the right side of the chart you have Leonardo and Einstein and on the left side of the distribution, Egbert.

Posted by: Pavo on May 15, 2007 at 3:50 PM | PERMALINK

...put the crazies back in the box...

I'd settle for just getting them out of the Oval Office.

Posted by: Ding dong the Witch is Dead on May 15, 2007 at 3:51 PM | PERMALINK

egbert, you and others like you have no idea how power works, especially on the international stage.

Posted by: sdh on May 15, 2007 at 3:51 PM | PERMALINK

scrambled egbert is a faith-based idiot.

Shouldn't you be donning sack-cloth and ashes and publicly self-flagellating in the streets in mourning egbert? One of your icons is assuming room temperature as we speak.

Posted by: Blue Girl, Red State (aka G.C.) on May 15, 2007 at 3:58 PM | PERMALINK

After he saw what happened to Saddam, he's not likely to stray too far from his leash.

Meanwhile, the Iranian nuclear program continues...

Posted by: Stephen on May 15, 2007 at 4:28 PM | PERMALINK

The military does have some brave and resourceful individuals. Glad to see one in a position of power.

Posted by: Scorpio on May 15, 2007 at 4:32 PM | PERMALINK

Are we any closer to a coup yet?

Posted by: Rula Lenska on May 15, 2007 at 4:34 PM | PERMALINK

Stephen, Nukes are not chocolate chip cookies - the development will take longer to develop than the Bush administration has left on the clock. As soon as we have a sane president, the overtures will start. It isn't ideal, but it is the least-bad option we have after the phenomenal fuck-up that is the Bush administration.

Ideal? No. But given the Chuckleheads in charge, it's the best we can hope for.

More here. Including something that you really ought to be up-in-arms about

Posted by: Blue Girl, Red State (aka G.C.) on May 15, 2007 at 4:43 PM | PERMALINK

Loved the photo-op moment of Fat Boy landing on the carrier in order to bristle at the Iranians.

Now, the Navy personnel were lined up saluting his Unworthiness. Well, I can see them having to salute the CinC, but the Veep? Must have changed the chain of the commode, er command.

Oh yeah, I remember now - One is supposed to salute a Co-Consul from Rome. Sort of another "Hail, Caesar" moment.

Posted by: thethirdPaul on May 15, 2007 at 4:43 PM | PERMALINK

A military defying the civilian leadership is not necessarily a good trend.

But in this situation it is a welcome relief.

Posted by: kis on May 15, 2007 at 4:50 PM | PERMALINK

egbert: Ahmedinejad "on a leash?" Oh yeah, he's definitely quaking in his boots, there. He's the one who has us by the balls, unfortunately. George W. Bush was the best thing that ever happened to hardliners in Iran and throughout the Middle East. Heckuvajob. Thankfully there are still a few grownups like Fallon who can keep Armageddon at bay until January 2009. And more to the point, why would Fallon deny that he would approve a unilateral attack on Iran if there weren't people high up in the administration who were talking about it?

Posted by: jonas on May 15, 2007 at 4:52 PM | PERMALINK

That threat alone should be enough to keep Ahcmadinajad in his cage. After he saw what happened to Saddam,

You mean after he saw the US take out Saddam, Iran's greatest enemy, clearing the way for Iraq to be taken over by a Shiite theocracy friendly to Iran? Hey, with enemies like us Iran hardly needs friends, does it?

Posted by: Stefan on May 15, 2007 at 5:06 PM | PERMALINK

We can bemoan the fact that Fallon and others are late to the party but, if these reports are true they are still most welcome. Now that BushCo is failing on every conceivable level -- politically, legally, miitarily, and above all morally -- there's more reason than ever to shove them in the smallest possible box.

Strapping that box into the nose cone of a "Star Wars" missile would be a nice touch, but at this point we'll settle for getting them out of office.

egbert, there's still some room in the back of the box if you promise to keep licking George's boots when he's a private citizen.

Posted by: Kenji on May 15, 2007 at 5:10 PM | PERMALINK

The military does have some brave and resourceful individuals. Glad to see one in a position of power.

We can only hope there will still be a few around when Bush finishes his tour of duty.

Posted by: Nemo on May 15, 2007 at 5:32 PM | PERMALINK

This doesn't add up. These guys view every appointment through a political lens, but put up someone -- an unusual choice at that, as the job traditionally goes to a groundpounder -- for Centcom who wasn't on board with their overall agenda? Until I see more proof, I don't believe it.

Posted by: Martin Gale on May 15, 2007 at 5:38 PM | PERMALINK

We can bemoan the fact that Fallon and others are late to the party but, if these reports are true they are still most welcome.

Heck, it even took several years before the generals realized that Hitler was the greatest threat to Germany and started conspiring against him.

Posted by: Disputo on May 15, 2007 at 5:40 PM | PERMALINK

I'd believe GwB/Cheney meant for the third carrier group to deploy in the Gulf with the second group already there to be extended (works for soldiers, works for sailors, too). I rather think Gates said no and so the other group left on time. The Centcom commander wouldn't be able to do this on his own.

GwB/Cheney should still be worried more about Maliki, he's a much bigger threat than Iran.

Posted by: TJM on May 15, 2007 at 5:54 PM | PERMALINK

This isn't really news. Simply put, Fallon has the background to know you can't fit 3 carrier groups into the Persian Gulf.

Posted by: Boronx on May 15, 2007 at 6:02 PM | PERMALINK

there you go again, disputo, comparing the gang of fascist pricks who've taken over the government of your country to a gang of fascist pricks!

Posted by: benito's big testicles on May 15, 2007 at 6:04 PM | PERMALINK

BREAKING NEWS:

GWB finally found someone to be Commander-in-Chief.

Posted by: Disputo on May 15, 2007 at 6:05 PM | PERMALINK

Martin's comment is interesting: I have to say, when Fallon was first appointed I was a bit nervous that the administration seemed to be more interested in a naval rather than ground commander. Any attack on Iran would be largely launched from carriers and cruisers. It could be either Fallon put the kabosh on any talk of an Iran attack as soon as he took his command, or the words attributed to him have been beefed up a bit more than their actual context may allow. It would be interesting to hear/read what Sy Hersh has to say about it at some point.

Posted by: jonas on May 15, 2007 at 6:06 PM | PERMALINK

"We can bemoan the fact that Fallon and others are late to the party but, if these reports are true they are still most welcome."
_____________________

One must wonder exactly how folks here think somebody like Admiral Fallon is selected for his job. He didn't apply for it through Monster.com.
The choice of a regional commander is made by the President. It's far more important than most ambassadorial posts and even some Cabinet posts.

The choice of an admiral for a command with two ongoing ground fights was certainly interesting and most probably was Rumsfeld's doing. Rumsfeld was always interested in making things "purple."

It's likely that the "crazies back in the box" comment was wishful thinking on the part of somebody on the Admiral's staff - and one not all that close to the center of power, either.

Posted by: Trashhauler on May 15, 2007 at 6:10 PM | PERMALINK

Fallon has the background to know you can't fit 3 carrier groups into the Persian Gulf.

If you're not concerned with violating Iranian waters you can....

Posted by: Disputo on May 15, 2007 at 6:14 PM | PERMALINK

shorter mhr: look over there!

Posted by: Disputo on May 15, 2007 at 6:31 PM | PERMALINK

Vice President Cheney's speech on one of those aircraft carriers last week was not reassuring. Perhaps Admiral Fallon is not the man W. Bush and Cheney thought he was.

Posted by: Brojo on May 15, 2007 at 6:38 PM | PERMALINK

menatally handicapped reject:

06 August 2001.

"You've covered your ass now."

Posted by: Blue Girl, Red State (aka G.C.) on May 15, 2007 at 6:39 PM | PERMALINK

you know, the military does a pretty damned good job of weeding out the wanna-be Jack T. Ripper's and they sure as hell don't make it to flag-rank. Buzz Patterson is the exception, not the rule.

Posted by: Blue Girl, Red State (aka G.C.) on May 15, 2007 at 6:44 PM | PERMALINK

Jonah Goldberg has a piece today about the real crazies- liberal Democrats, 35% of whom believe that Bush knew 9/11 was coming. Whatever those guys are smoking it isn't tobacco.

It's probably the same stuff the 30-35% that still think GWB is doing a heckuva job are smoking.

Posted by: Nemo on May 15, 2007 at 6:44 PM | PERMALINK

Putting the crazies back in the box.

That's a pun about coffins and Falwell... right?

Posted by: ROTFLMLiberalAO on May 15, 2007 at 6:55 PM | PERMALINK

According to that poll, lot of Republicans also believe that Bush knew 9/11 was coming -- proportionately, about half as many as among Democrats.

But actually that's a misinterpretation of the question.

Vote Republican! We're only half as crazy and paranoid as Democrats!"

Posted by: John Emerson on May 15, 2007 at 6:58 PM | PERMALINK

egbert: "... all options should be on the table. That threat alone should be enough to keep Ahcmadinajad in his cage. After he saw what happened to Saddam, he's not likely to stray too far from his leash."

Ah, egbert, you cowardly Bushie whose mouth runs constantly, not unlike a sick cockatiel's ass.

Speaking as someone who just received word last night that his 19-year-old nephew -- who last year enlisted in the Army right out of high school -- is being deployed in two weeks to Baghdad as part of George Bush's vaunted "surge", I really must insist that you either enlist in the armed forces yourself, or else just STFU and stop offering the lives of others for sacrifice on your right-wing altars.

Tough talk from Loyal Bushies is indeed cheap nowadays, and yours in particular right now is a "K-Mart Blue-Light Special" -- my apologies to K-Mart for lowering their trademark to your low-life level.

Aloha, Asshole.

Posted by: Donald from Hawaii on May 15, 2007 at 6:59 PM | PERMALINK

mhr: "Whatever those guys are smoking it isn't tobacco."

"Whatever those guys are smoking" is quite obviously far more enlightening than the prodigious amounts of right-wing Kool-Aid you currently consume and spew.

Posted by: Donald from Hawaii on May 15, 2007 at 7:05 PM | PERMALINK

So, is this new "Czar" going to be Unter CinC, Uber CinC or just another Slop CinC?

And mhr and FAUX-Lib are becoming our own MRSA infection. Maybe some more Lib Maggots are in need to help with our very fine attack crew of truth responders.

Posted by: thethirdPaul on May 15, 2007 at 8:04 PM | PERMALINK

As i've always said, there was no way that Bush/Cheney would launch an attack on Iran.

Posted by: Andy on May 15, 2007 at 8:29 PM | PERMALINK

Kevin's cited article says: The deployment of three carrier groups simultaneously was not part of a plan for an actual attack on Iran, but was meant to convince Iran that the Bush administration was preparing for possible war if Tehran continued its uranium enrichment programme.

No negotiations or sanctions have deterred Iran's nuclear efforts. Maybe a third carrier group might have convinced Iran to give up their nuclear ambition. But, the third carrier group wasn't sent and Iran continues to develop nuclear weapons.

Was this a good result? Posters here no doubt think it's good when Bush does not get his way. OTOH it's bad that we and the UN seem unable to stop Iran from developing nuclear arms.

I think the latter consequence is a lot more bad than the former is good.

Posted by: ex-liberal on May 15, 2007 at 8:31 PM | PERMALINK

Yeah ex-lib, and "maybe" if we invade Iraq we will immediately bring democracy to the region and keep ourselves safe from terrorists forever.

Posted by: Kenji on May 15, 2007 at 8:45 PM | PERMALINK

I hate these fucking people who don't support the troops...

... what do you mean 'he is the troops?'

Oh no! My head's about to E X P L O D E!!!

Posted by: absent observer on May 15, 2007 at 9:11 PM | PERMALINK

FAUX-Lib, you are indeed an MRSA infection.

Keep driving your Yellow Cab the wrong way past those Do Not Enter signs.

Posted by: thethirdPaul on May 15, 2007 at 9:13 PM | PERMALINK

I'll be damned. So that's why they backed off. Out-fucking-standing. I mean, they were obviously going to go, and suddenly, along about the last third of Feb. the whole propaganda machine stopped dead in its tracks.

If only someone had had the balls to do that over Iraq.

m, that's what happens when the military says 'enough'

Posted by: max on May 15, 2007 at 9:15 PM | PERMALINK

No negotiations or sanctions have deterred Iran's nuclear efforts.

Actually, no negotiations or sanctions have deterred Iran's nuclear efforts that resulted from Bush capriciously including them in an "axis evil," refusing their diplomatic overtures in 2003, failing to credit them for their help against the Taliban, then invading the country next to them on false pretenses.

You. Idiot.

Posted by: trex on May 15, 2007 at 9:18 PM | PERMALINK

By the way, thethirdPaul, this was hilarious:

Loved the photo-op moment of Fat Boy landing on the carrier in order to bristle at the Iranians.

Keep 'em coming.

Posted by: trex on May 15, 2007 at 9:21 PM | PERMALINK

No negotiations or sanctions have deterred Iran's nuclear efforts. Maybe a third carrier group might have convinced Iran to give up their nuclear ambition. But, the third carrier group wasn't sent and Iran continues to develop nuclear weapons.

Drink deeper from the kool-aid. Sheesh.

Iran. Is. Not. Going. To. Have. Nukes. Before. We. Have. A. Sane. President.

If you want to get excited about something, get excited about the fact that the Chinese are five years closer to having a blue-water navy than the Iranians are to having nukes.

A blue-water Navy is the third prong of a Superpower. They have the nuclear weapons already, and they have more than enough economic clout to qualify.

Posted by: Blue Girl, Red State (aka G.C.) on May 15, 2007 at 9:39 PM | PERMALINK

Wonderful idea, put the crazies back in the box.

...then launch the box into the sun.


Posted by: Cognitive Dissident on May 15, 2007 at 9:47 PM | PERMALINK

Sorry Blue Girl, this crowd is only interested in carefully chosen imaginary threats that have the potential to boost the political prospects of a failed and failing president.

Please take your facts and analysis and talk of serious threats elsewhere.

Posted by: trex on May 15, 2007 at 9:52 PM | PERMALINK

ex, I realize you probably watch the Fox half-hour what-in-god's-name, but Reza Aslan last week on The Daily Show said that when he was last in Iran, everyone there was sure the US was going to start bombing them any minute.
See, GwB is getting through. He's frightened the citizenry perhaps enough to stop them from expanding the democracy that's already there.
You're doing a helluva job, George, oh, and you too,ex.

Posted by: TJM on May 15, 2007 at 10:08 PM | PERMALINK

Sounds like leadership to me.

Hope he doesn't get hurt.

Posted by: Horatio Parker on May 16, 2007 at 12:55 AM | PERMALINK

He won't get hurt! We won't let those scoundrels get their way!
http://bullwinkle.toonzone.net/peachfuzz.htm

Posted by: Doc at the Radar Station on May 16, 2007 at 1:36 AM | PERMALINK

Iran. Is. Not. Going. To. Have. Nukes. Before. We. Have. A. Sane. President.

Please inform us exactly what Madame Hillary is going to tell the leaders of Iran to convince them to shut down their nuclear program.

For Democrats, "overtures" usually involve kneepads, but I can't even think of anything along these lines that Iran might want from us bad enough to give up the Islamic Bomb.

Posted by: monkeybone on May 16, 2007 at 2:00 AM | PERMALINK

monkeybrain: "For Democrats, "overtures" usually involve kneepads..."

Mmmm, maybe sometimes. But with Republicans, it's all kneepads all the time. 'zat Dubya semen taste as good as it did six years ago? Does it taste something like, I dunno, irony?

Posted by: Kenji on May 16, 2007 at 2:15 AM | PERMALINK

anonymous, usually reliable, sources started a rumor and named officials, Gates and Fallon, squelched the rumor.

Posted by: MatthewRmarler on May 16, 2007 at 3:06 AM | PERMALINK

did that idiot actually quote the doughy pantload, Johah goldberg? hahaha that's one of the things that make you such a joke, mhr.

Posted by: merlallen on May 16, 2007 at 6:34 AM | PERMALINK

"Shouldn't you be donning sack-cloth and ashes and publicly self-flagellating in the streets in mourning egbert? One of your icons is assuming room temperature as we speak."

I'd have said Falwell right now was either extremely hot or extremely cold, or maybe walking in a big circle with a lead cloak. Depends what circle you think he went to.

Posted by: Sock Puppet of the Great Satan on May 16, 2007 at 11:41 AM | PERMALINK
...One must wonder exactly how folks here think somebody like Admiral Fallon is selected for his job...Trashhauler at 6:10 PM
Most seem to be selected for their loyalty to the President and his agenda. If they don't turn out or if the agenda changes, they're replaced.
Jonah Goldberg has a piece today.... mhr at 6:30 PM
Nope, meathead republicans simply took a flawed poll and misinterpreted it.
want from us bad enough to give up the Islamic Bomb. monkeybone at 2:00 AM
In case you didn't know it, Pakistan has the Islamic bomb already Posted by: Mike on May 16, 2007 at 5:52 PM | PERMALINK

"Did Bush Know About the 9/11 Attacks in Advance?" is hardly an "ambiguous" poll question, despite Media Matters spinning so fast on this that they actually make a humming noise.

Never mind the leftist celebrities and others making the same claims, often in a national venue.

Posted by: rnc on May 16, 2007 at 7:36 PM | PERMALINK

Well, YOU certainly make a humming noise. Under George Bush's desk

Posted by: Kenji on May 16, 2007 at 8:41 PM | PERMALINK
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