May 21, 2007
IRAQI LEADERSHIP GONE MISSING....Juan Cole notes today that of the six men who actually run Iraq, one of them is in Iran getting chemotherapy for his lung cancer; one is in hiding; and one, improbably, is in the U.S. seeking treatment for his obesity:
So of the central club, al-Hakim is now absent. And, Jalal Talabani is flying to the US to spend three weeks, allegedly in a bid to lose weight. I'm tempted to speculate that something is in the works such that someone thinks it desirable that Talabani be out of country, since the idea that Mam Jalal suddenly decided he needed to go to a fat farm in Minnesota strikes me as far-fetched. But I will control myself; speculation in the absence of information is not very useful.
....Here you have the president and the leader of the largest bloc out of country. Not to mention that another important figure, Muqtada al-Sadr is in hiding in the Kufa area of Iraq, apparently afraid that the US "surge" will include another attempt to assassinate him.
....Nothing is likely to get done in their absence. Even under the best of circumstances, getting Talabani, Barzani, al-Hakim, al-Maliki and al-Hashimi all on the same page is nearly a miracle. But for the next few weeks it won't be possible at all.
This strikes me as a coincidence worth taking note of, especially since Maliki's government has shown distinct signs of strain lately. Stay tuned.
—Kevin Drum 11:23 AM
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Who's clearing brush?
Posted by: portly neighbor on May 21, 2007 at 11:39 AM | PERMALINK
I assumed that he's getting treatment for some more pressing health issue - cancer or heart surgery or some such thing - that he would rather not disclose.
Posted by: MrKranky on May 21, 2007 at 11:42 AM | PERMALINK
So nice to see Cheney and his pal from Iraq working out together in Minnesota.
And, to think Iran has better facilities for lung cancer treatment. Amazing Persian doctors.
But, we do better in fat.
Posted by: thethirdPaul on May 21, 2007 at 11:42 AM | PERMALINK
This strikes me as a coincidence worth taking note of, especially since Maliki's government has shown distinct signs of strain lately.
So a couple of people take a vactation and you consider that a big deal? That's absurd. Aren't you going to take a summer vacation also? Of course. It's hypocritical of you to complain about others taking a summer vacation when you're taking one also.
Posted by: Al on May 21, 2007 at 11:47 AM | PERMALINK
Al,
I missed the announcement about Kevin assuming the presidency of a country in the midst of a brutal civil war. Kevin's vacations are not comparable to Talabani's.
Since Republicans love arguing by means of distorted or inapplicable historical analogies, tell me again about how Lincoln checked out for a few weeks during the Civil War to spend time at the thin farm.
Posted by: Karl on May 21, 2007 at 11:52 AM | PERMALINK
There is always Al Ngo Dinh Diem to install in Baghdad.
Posted by: gregor on May 21, 2007 at 11:53 AM | PERMALINK
The mess in Iraq will only be solved by the people of Iraq. They need 100s of leaders to take control, province by province, of their country.
The world seems to think visible leaders are the best. Not so. It's the ones who act quietly, not seeking fame, who will show Iraq ways of shedding the horrors of the US occupation and the chaos that has been unleashed.
Think about it. If a knight in shining armour were to appear, he/she would be beheaded/kidnapped, etc.
Below the radar the wise ones are carefully spreading the word.
Grassroots.
That is how all real social change happens.
So let the visible "leaders" flounder, the real leaders are unnamed, patient, wise and humble.
No, CNN won't be able to interview these folks, they're too numerous, too diffuse.
i.e. It's the brave Iraqis woman who tells her daughters to educate themselves that shows true leadership.
Posted by: Tom Nicholson on May 21, 2007 at 11:54 AM | PERMALINK
This may be WAY off into left field, but I can't help it.
Who's paying for Talabani's trip to the fat farm? Millions of Americans forego health care because they can't afford it, but an Iraqi jets over here to lose some weight?
BTW, for Al: I won't take a vacation again this year. Can't afford it.
Posted by: Lifelong Dem on May 21, 2007 at 12:00 PM | PERMALINK
So the Iraqi leadership is bugging out. Great timing. I hear there is a former exec of the World Bank who is looking for work.
Posted by: Keith G on May 21, 2007 at 12:10 PM | PERMALINK
Did you catch this from the WaPo, kicking around a couple of other blogs:
Iraq's Sadr Overhauls His Tactics
The movement of Shiite cleric Moqtada al-Sadr has embarked on one of its most dramatic tactical shifts since the beginning of the war.
The 33-year-old populist is reaching out to a broad array of Sunni leaders, from politicians to insurgents, and purging extremist members of his Mahdi Army militia who target Sunnis. Sadr's political followers are distancing themselves from the fragile Shiite-led government of Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki, which is widely criticized as corrupt, inefficient and biased in favor of Iraq's majority Shiites. And moderates are taking up key roles in Sadr's movement, professing to be less anti-American and more nationalist as they seek to improve Sadr's image and position him in the middle of Iraq's ideological spectrum.
"We want to aim the guns against the occupation and al-Qaeda, not between Iraqis," Ahmed Shaibani, 37, a cleric who leads Sadr's newly formed reconciliation committee, said as he sat inside Sadr's heavily guarded compound here.
Posted by: doug r on May 21, 2007 at 12:11 PM | PERMALINK
In August of 45, Bock's Car dropped "Fat Man" on Nagasaki in an attempt to end a war.
Today, Air Force Two carries Fat Boy and friend from Iraq to work out at a fat farm so they can both continue an endless and needless war.
Posted by: thethirdPaul on May 21, 2007 at 12:27 PM | PERMALINK
interesting development. but about this six men who actually run Iraq -- does anybody acutally run Iraq? Do those 6 men even "influence" Iraqi Kurdistan or al Anbar province?
Also, doesn't something like this happen in the U.S. every August? And Christmas? And Easter? And Memorial Day?
Posted by: MatthewRmarler on May 21, 2007 at 12:41 PM | PERMALINK
2 or 3 carrier groups in the area, the Iraq leadership safely out of the picture, hmm, can you say "shock and awe"?
Posted by: Neal on May 21, 2007 at 12:42 PM | PERMALINK
the idea that Mam Jalal suddenly decided he needed to go to a fat farm in Minnesota strikes me as far-fetched
He must be going for the holisitc aerobic farmwork and powder milk biscuits.
Posted by: MatthewRmarler on May 21, 2007 at 12:51 PM | PERMALINK
Also, doesn't something like this happen in the U.S. every August? And Christmas? And Easter? And Memorial Day?
Nice false equivalence, there, Marler, unless there's a civil war going on here we haven't noticed.
And speaking of which, the fact that no one's really running Iraq is the problem -- one that Bush and his gang of incompetents has done fuck-all to solve in the last four years.
Tool.
Posted by: Gregory on May 21, 2007 at 12:57 PM | PERMALINK
He must be going for the holisitc aerobic farmwork and powder milk biscuits.
Is he a shy person? Does he need some extra courage to get up and do what needs to be done?
(Look for the brown stains. They indicate freshness.)
Posted by: Blue Girl, Red State (aka G.C.) on May 21, 2007 at 1:01 PM | PERMALINK
Why would anyone come to the US to lose weight? That makes about as much sense as moving to Japan to learn French. Al-Fatti should investigate these maps a bit further.
http://www.iotf.org/database/documents/GlobalAdultmapswithtop5ineachregion_000.ppt
Posted by: Fred on May 21, 2007 at 1:02 PM | PERMALINK
Juan Cole, and now KD, have omitted the most infamous vacationers of them all, i.e., the Iraqi parliament.
Just to repeat:
Iraqi powerbrokers who are or will be MIA
al-Hakim
Talabani (president)
Muqtada al-Sadr
the entire Iraqi parliament
Posted by: lampwick on May 21, 2007 at 1:05 PM | PERMALINK
gregor posted on May 21, 2007 at 11:53 AM: "...
There is always Al Ngo Dinh Diem to install in Baghdad."
We've already had that. What we'll see next is 'Neutralist' General AL Duong Van "Big" Minh become head of government with an appeal to end the sectarian violence. I don't think we're going to see very many Buddhist monks immolating themselves to shame the government into ending the war though in this instance.
Posted by: PrahaPartizan on May 21, 2007 at 1:06 PM | PERMALINK
Al:
if you can't see the inherent danger that the absence of the major political leaders of Iraq at the same time produces, then it makes just about any statement or point that you always feebley attempt to make even that much more banal and without merit. Oh ... and your a Republican. what a coincedence.
Posted by: ny patriot on May 21, 2007 at 1:14 PM | PERMALINK
As I have noted before, the "government" in Baghdad is like the unicorn or the Easter Bunny - it doesn't exist! To speak of Talabani's loose confederaton of losers as if (1) they had any power, and (2) anyone in Iraq gave two shits about what they have to say, is friggin' insane. Read the accounts of some independent journalists like Patrick Cockburn about what life in Baghdad is really like, without the mainstream media spin that is designed to help Bush save face.
It doesn't matter one bit whether Tubbo and Cancer Boy are in Iraq or not, the place is a shithole and Bush's surge is as worthless as a bubblegum machine in a lockjaw ward.
Posted by: The Conservative Deflator on May 21, 2007 at 1:16 PM | PERMALINK
Where are Nguyen Cao Ky and B-1 Bomber Dornan when you need them?
Posted by: thethirdPaul on May 21, 2007 at 1:30 PM | PERMALINK
Tom Nicholson argues that the new leaders are below the surface, quietly preparing to "show Iraq ways of shedding the horrors of the U.S. occupation and the chaos that has been unleashed.
If only that were true.
Current estimates are that 1.9 million Iraqis are displaced inside Iraq, and that 2 million have fled the country.
Those who have left the country are largely those who had the resources to leave: the rich, the business owners, the doctors, lawyers, engineers and others with valuable skills and leadership abilities.
To put this number in context, imagine a similar outflow of talent from the United States. The U.S. has approximately 11 times the population of Iraq. Just how well would we cope after the flight of 44 million people, including the best and brightest (and best financed) among us? Especially when the Americans remaining were being systematically butchered if they expressed an opinion.
This is just one symptom among many that show that Iraq is already a failed state and one that could take generations to regenerate, even if it is given the chance.
Posted by: anoregonreader on May 21, 2007 at 1:34 PM | PERMALINK
I agree with Tom Nicholson that an army of invisible leaders is emerging in Iraq. If we could see them, they would not exist. Their invisibility is proof of their existence. It also allows them to hang out in the girls' locker room unnoticed.
Posted by: Disputo on May 21, 2007 at 1:35 PM | PERMALINK
Do those 6 men even "influence" Iraqi Kurdistan or al Anbar province?
I would expect that Jalal Talabani, one of those six and one of three mentioned in the article, has more influence in Iraqi Kurdistan than anywhere else in Iraq.
Posted by: cmdicely on May 21, 2007 at 1:37 PM | PERMALINK
Iraq's central government has accomplished little for some reason. Perhaps it's because they're inexperienced. Perhaps it's corruption. Perhaps the elected reps are afraid of varoius power groups. Maybe the Constitution makes it unduly difficult to pass legislation.
Whatever the cause of their fecklessness, I can't see much the US can do to make the Iraqi government more effective. Unfortunately, we're stuck with this government.
Posted by: ex-liberal on May 21, 2007 at 1:43 PM | PERMALINK
Btw, does anyone have a source for Talabani going to MN? The source that Cole links to does not specify MN. If it is indeed MN, I assume that the specific destination is the Mayo clinic in Rochester, in which case I doubt that simple obesity is the problem. He has had other serious health issues in the past.
Posted by: Disputo on May 21, 2007 at 1:47 PM | PERMALINK
Confirmed that Talabani is going to Mayo. Also, the linked article suggests that Juan Cole misread the reason Talabani is going there:
As Talabani boarded the plane in Iraq, he laughingly said he was going to the U-S "to lose weight and have some rest and relaxation."
Talabani seems to have been a joking about going to the US for treating obesity. Obviously there are greater medical issue at concern here.
Posted by: Disputo on May 21, 2007 at 1:55 PM | PERMALINK
"ex-liberal" wrote: Iraq's central government has accomplished little for some reason. Perhaps it's because they're inexperienced. Perhaps it's corruption. Perhaps the elected reps are afraid of varoius power groups. Maybe the Constitution makes it unduly difficult to pass legislation.
And maybe it's the fact that this so-called government -- and its sponsor, the United States -- isn't really in control of the chaos in Iraq -- not even the Green Zone -- thereby forgoing any legitimacy at all.
Whatever the cause of their fecklessness, I can't see much the US can do to make the Iraqi government more effective.
Being the dishonest neocon hack that you are, what you can or can't see is hardly dispositive. Factor in that the Bush Administration resists concrete penalties for not meeting the benchmarks the Iraqi "government" has so far consistently failed to meet, and the cause for your myopia becoems obvious.
Tool.
Posted by: Gregory on May 21, 2007 at 2:04 PM | PERMALINK
America's central government has accomplished little for some reason. Perhaps it's because they're inexperienced. Perhaps it's corruption. Perhaps the elected reps are afraid of various power groups. Maybe the Executive Branch's lack of respect for the Constitution makes it unduly difficult for Congress to fulfill its duties.
Unfortunately, we're stuck with this government.
Looks like the only solution is endless occupation by a foreign power.
Posted by: trex on May 21, 2007 at 2:27 PM | PERMALINK
I vaguely remember reading an article where ordinary Iraqis were being asked about their government and one response was something to the effect of: "The Iraqi government only exists on TV". If that's the case they could just run the thing with teleconferencing, no?
Posted by: Doc at the Radar Station on May 21, 2007 at 2:29 PM | PERMALINK
ex-lib: "I can't see much the US can do to make the Iraqi government more effective."
Yeah, what are we going to do, invade the fuckers?
trex, I thought you were going with the beefier T-rex.
Posted by: Kenji on May 21, 2007 at 3:00 PM | PERMALINK
Well, since Unka Dick made sure they can't take "vacations," I guess a visit to the Fat Farm (with organic vegetarian cuisine?) is the next best thing.
Posted by: Cal Gal on May 21, 2007 at 3:02 PM | PERMALINK
Is it possible he is ill with something else and obesity is a cover story?
Posted by: Andrew J. Lazarus on May 21, 2007 at 3:12 PM | PERMALINK
"...and one, improbably, is in the U.S. seeking treatment for his obesity:"
This is about 3/4 of what you need to know about these times. Your country is disintegrating and you're at Jenny Craig.
Posted by: Linus on May 21, 2007 at 3:20 PM | PERMALINK
"...and one, improbably, is in the U.S. seeking treatment for his obesity:"
This is about 3/4 of what you need to know about these times. Your country is disintegrating and you're at Jenny Craig.
Posted by: Linus on May 21, 2007 at 3:20 PM | PERMALINK
Signs of Strain?
You are lookin at the Iraqi parliament from the pov of the Bush admin and the M$M.
Try stepping back and looking at just how greatly the Iraqi goverment has succeeded in their decades old dream of transforming Iraq into a vassal state of Iran, a fundamentalist Shiite republic which is pro-Hizbollah, pro-extremist-Iranian, etc., one which will never become a true friend to the USA and Israel.
Try looking at what the Iraq govt has accomplished: S. Iraq is now under Sharia law; the hydrocarbon law is dead and has been dead for months; and the Sunnis still have not been brought into the fold.
Seems quite successful from the Iraqi pov.
Here's golden oldie...It is one of my favorites and I hope its one of yours....It is prescient.... I call it "Maliki doesnt heart Cheney"
Bush warns Iraq on chemical arms U.S. fears use of weapons against rebels. Chicago Tribune. March 10, 1991 [snip]
Jawad al-Maliki of the Dawa Party said in Damascus, Syria, that mustard gas was used against protesters in al-Haleh, al-Kifil, Najaf and some areas of Basra, in southeastern Iraq.
Precisely what is going on inside Iraq is difficult to determine since Western reporters have been expelled. Most information is coming from refugees and opposition leaders in Iran and Syria.
Defense Secretary Dick Cheney described the situation as "volatile" but said it appears Hussein will be able to keep the unrest in check for now. The Iraqi leader is using his loyal Republican Guard to quell the rebellion.
Posted by: Homer on May 21, 2007 at 3:53 PM | PERMALINK
MatthewRmarler: Also, doesn't something like this happen in the U.S. every August? And Christmas? And Easter? And Memorial Day?
I distinctly remember something like that happening in August of 2001. I think something bad happened after that, maybe because important people decided vacation was more important than a potential national disaster. I sort of remember something like that happening in August of 2005 also. There was a big storm, and a lot people were trapped, and the rescue efforts were very poor.
I've said it before, and will say it again. Al Maliki learned everything he needed to know about governing (lying, refusing to compromise and taking the lazy way out) from the Bush administration. Unfortunately Iraq is much more fragile than the United States.
Posted by: cowalker on May 21, 2007 at 4:11 PM | PERMALINK
So all these guys are hightailing it to secure and in some cases undisclosed locations, or to a hospital bed. Not a problem-just send Fredo and Andy Card to smoke 'em out.
Posted by: MrGoodrant on May 21, 2007 at 4:37 PM | PERMALINK
MrKranky >"I assumed that he's getting treatment for some more pressing health issue..."
Remember that the Shah of Iran did some similar travel because of cancer just before their big change in government. Keep an eye on this one (and the three carrier groups of course). Things could get really "hot" this summer.
"The future will be a struggle between huge competing systems of psychopathology." - J. G. Ballard
Posted by: daCascadian on May 21, 2007 at 4:45 PM | PERMALINK
Also, doesn't something like this happen in the U.S. every August? And Christmas? And Easter? And Memorial Day?
Yes, on all of the major national and religious holidays in the US, half the senior leadership of the US government goes into hiding and/or to foreign countries for medical treatment.
Do you ever even think once about what you post here?
Posted by: cmdicely on May 21, 2007 at 6:51 PM | PERMALINK
Irony alert: Frothing authoritarian Mike K cites the perennially dishonest WSJ opinion page in claiming dishonesty...
Whatever, Mike.
Posted by: Gregory on May 21, 2007 at 6:52 PM | PERMALINK
There is no "Iraq" and there is no legitimate central "Iraq Govenment".
The surge to purportedy support this farce is criminal. US troops should not be sacraficed in this way.
Republicans will pay for this travesty.
Posted by: erict on May 21, 2007 at 7:56 PM | PERMALINK
Gregory: the fact that no one's really running Iraq is the problem
Are you asserting the same thing I asserted, namely that no one is running Iraq?
Posted by: MatthewRmarler on May 21, 2007 at 9:00 PM | PERMALINK
cmdicely: I would expect that Jalal Talabani, one of those six and one of three mentioned in the article, has more influence in Iraqi Kurdistan than anywhere else in Iraq.
Probably so, but probably not when attempting to represent the central government.
Tom Nicholson: So let the visible "leaders" flounder, the real leaders are unnamed, patient, wise and humble.
That line itself is at best a stretch. Something like what you mention may be occurring - or maybe not. "Power" is now wielded by people who were kept out of power, at all levels, for decades. Even an optimist has to allow for the practical skills of self-government to be slowly acquired. Iraq is not a confidence-builder right now.
Posted by: MatthewRmarler on May 21, 2007 at 9:11 PM | PERMALINK
Are you asserting the same thing I asserted
No, dipshit, I'm pointing out that your various assertions in support of our bloody involvement in this chaos and anarchy are beyond asinine since no one is running Iraq.
Posted by: Gregory on May 21, 2007 at 9:43 PM | PERMALINK
no one is running Iraq.
Who, if anyone, is running Iraq is immaterial.
The only matter of import is who controls the spice.
Posted by: Disputo on May 21, 2007 at 9:49 PM | PERMALINK
Funny. We've created a frankincense monster!
Posted by: Kenji on May 21, 2007 at 10:25 PM | PERMALINK
Dear Lord, these are profoundly unserious people. And they hold their country in their sweaty, cowardly, grasping hands. The biggest, fattest rats flee the sinking ship. God help the rest. And us.
Posted by: M. A. George on May 22, 2007 at 11:56 AM | PERMALINK