August 23, 2007
"MORE PRECARIOUS"....The Associated Press has gotten hold of a copy of the intelligence community's latest assessment of Iraq. Here's the highlight:
The report predicts that the Iraqi government "will become more precarious over the next six to 12 months" because of criticism from members of Iraqi Shiite parties, Iraq's top Shiite religious figure Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani, and other Sunni and Kurdish factions.
The assessment also expresses deep doubts that the government of Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki can overcome sectarian divisions and meet benchmarks intended to promote political unity. It finds that Shiite factions have looked at ways to constrain him.
In other words, surge or no surge, our intelligence community is already predicting that things will get worse over the next year.
Needless to say, this will be used as evidence that we need to stick around. Can't leave while the country is unraveling! If things were getting better, of course, that too would be used as evidence that we need to stick around. Can't leave when we're right on the verge of victory! And what if things weren't getting better or worse? Do I need to tell you?
UPDATE: The full report is here.
—Kevin Drum 12:50 PM
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The Knights of NIE!!!!!!
Posted by: Cheney's Third Nipple on August 23, 2007 at 12:54 PM | PERMALINK
This is clearly part of a campaign to discredit Maliki so they can get rid of him and put a new guy in his place then declare that we have to be patient and give the new guy a chance. You watch -- that's exactly what's going on here.
Posted by: Debra on August 23, 2007 at 12:56 PM | PERMALINK
Shia have to face deranged Arab Sunni nutcases, I do not blame them for wanting all guarantees.
Posted by: Matt on August 23, 2007 at 12:57 PM | PERMALINK
The AP didn't just "get a hold of" a copy of the intelligence assessment. It was deliberately leaked by the White House.
Posted by: Joe on August 23, 2007 at 12:59 PM | PERMALINK
Damn the torpedos -- stay right where we are!
Posted by: jb on August 23, 2007 at 1:01 PM | PERMALINK
[deleted by popular demand]
Posted by: Al on August 23, 2007 at 1:04 PM | PERMALINK
All evidence probably would be treated as a reason to stick around - but why?
What does Bush want with that place now? Is it just that he doesn't want the spectacle of withdrawal on his watch? Because I don't think they really are planning on the permanent bases anymore.
Posted by: luci on August 23, 2007 at 1:05 PM | PERMALINK
It's the same thing with the GOP and tax cuts. If the economy is doing poorly, it's time to cut taxes because we need to stimulate the economy. If the economy is doing great, it's time to cut taxes because we can afford it. If the economy is merely just doing all right, well, those tax cuts just pay for themselves, don't they?
Never mind that targeted tax cuts that favor the rich almost never have the effect of stimulating the economy, as the rich tend to save their returned millions (and oftentimes not in U.S. banks). But that's class warfare, isn't it?
Posted by: Lev on August 23, 2007 at 1:06 PM | PERMALINK
Why does the AP hate America?
Posted by: Pat on August 23, 2007 at 1:07 PM | PERMALINK
Al, read why violence in Baghdad has decreased:
(quote)
"Decrease in Baghdad violence due to sectarian cleansing:
The polarization of communities is most evident in Baghdad, where the Shia are a clear majority in more than half of all neighborhoods and Sunni areas have become surrounded by predominately Shia districts. Where population displacements have led to significant sectarian separation, conflict levels have diminished to some extent because warring communities find it more difficult to penetrate communal enclaves."
(end quote)
It's more like the peace of a grave yard in Rwanda.
Posted by: Neal on August 23, 2007 at 1:09 PM | PERMALINK
Well, yeah, but the "intelligence community" was right on target with all of the WMD predictions, right? And we know how those intelligence community-proffered linkages between Saddam and al-Qaeda turned out.
The safe bet is to assume that the reality is precisely the opposite of the assessments of the intelligence community.
Posted by: George Tenet on August 23, 2007 at 1:22 PM | PERMALINK
This is clearly part of a campaign to discredit Maliki so they can get rid of him and put a new guy in his place
Not quite. They want to replace Maliki with an *old* guy, Allawi.
Posted by: Disputo on August 23, 2007 at 1:28 PM | PERMALINK
There is something wrong with our system of governance of this war, that has now become a issue of vanity for a single person but is opposed by all but the congenitally retarded, cannot be stopped by legal means
Posted by: gregor on August 23, 2007 at 1:29 PM | PERMALINK
Oh Geez, another NIE. Does this one contain as much bullshit as the NIE they spent a coupla all-nighters cobbling together in Fall 2002?
Posted by: Model 62 on August 23, 2007 at 1:30 PM | PERMALINK
[Trolling deleted. Take it elsewhere.]
Posted by: mhr on August 23, 2007 at 1:31 PM | PERMALINK
This is clearly part of a campaign to discredit Maliki so they can get rid of him and put a new guy in his place then declare that we have to be patient and give the new guy a chance.
That's exactly what they're doing, but it's Allawi they want in.
Posted by: shortstop on August 23, 2007 at 1:40 PM | PERMALINK
Ah, Kevin.
Why don't you listen to our President, once and a while.
The President says that if the government becomes unresponsive to the demands of the people, then the people will vote out the government. That is PRECISLY what is going on here.
This is democracy at work, Kevin.
Posted by: egbert on August 23, 2007 at 1:41 PM | PERMALINK
Nonsense Kevin. It has just been reported attacks in Iraq have gone DOWN 50% because of the Surge.
I know you don't care, but comparing a March number to a July number is flawed. Why? July numbers have been lower than March numbers throughout the war. Why? one reason is it's really freaking hot.
The correct way to compare is to last year's July numbers, and every comparison I have seen using that metric shows tiny improvements or none at all.
Posted by: Joshua on August 23, 2007 at 1:43 PM | PERMALINK
With all the talk (and leaks) about how Maliki is ineffective, I wouldn't be surprised if they remove Maliki and place someone else in his place. Then Bush will go out and tell us that the new puppet in Iraq needs a year before we pass judgement on him. And on and on this continues.
Posted by: rational on August 23, 2007 at 1:45 PM | PERMALINK
But wait a minute here...I thought Iraq was an independent state, a democracy wherein they select their own leaders, make their own government. How in the world can we "get rid of Maliki" and replace him with chalabi, err...I mean someone else?
Posted by: Praedor Atrebates on August 23, 2007 at 1:49 PM | PERMALINK
egbert, shut the fuck up, you drooling, mendacious fucktard.
Enlisted yet, you yellow-bellied coward?
Posted by: Blue Girl, Red State (aka G.C.) on August 23, 2007 at 1:51 PM | PERMALINK
With all the talk (and leaks) about how Maliki is ineffective, I wouldn't be surprised if they remove Maliki and place someone else in his place. Then Bush will go out and tell us that the new puppet in Iraq needs a year before we pass judgement on him. And on and on this continues.
Yeah, 'cause that worked so well in Vietnam. Oh, wait...
Posted by: Gregory on August 23, 2007 at 1:51 PM | PERMALINK
The fact that all this is out in the open shows how all the wheels have done come off the White House's little red PR wagon. Does anyone really think that all the trash talk about Maliki and hints of a coup that would oust the current government of Iraq The Failing State is anything other than ample evidence of Bush's miserable failure of a war? Hint: when Bush has to refer to the Vietnam war to make his case, it's clear that despite the best PR efforts of some, the war situation has developed not necessarily to America's advantage.
Posted by: David W. on August 23, 2007 at 1:52 PM | PERMALINK
The President says that if the government becomes unresponsive to the demands of the people, then the people will vote out the government. That is PRECISLY what is going on here.
This is democracy at work, Kevin.
Golly, they've scheduled elections? Somehow I missed that.
.
Posted by: spork_incident on August 23, 2007 at 1:52 PM | PERMALINK
The correct way to compare is to last year's July numbers, and every comparison I have seen using that metric shows tiny improvements or none at all.
so:
7-2003 48 US killed
7-2004 54 US killed
7-2005 54 US killed
7-2006 43 US killed
7-2007 79 US killed
Posted by: benjoya on August 23, 2007 at 1:54 PM | PERMALINK
Chart detailing summertime deaths of Americans in Iraq (culled from a .pdf) is available here.
Posted by: Blue Girl, Red State (aka G.C.) on August 23, 2007 at 1:59 PM | PERMALINK
Hm... Precariouser and precariouser...
Posted by: anonymous on August 23, 2007 at 2:19 PM | PERMALINK
I believe most Americans are idiots, and will believe what the CNN's tell them.
Posted by: absent observer on August 23, 2007 at 2:19 PM | PERMALINK
It's more like the peace of a grave yard in Rwanda.
Oooh, that's a good one.
Posted by: Porkins on August 23, 2007 at 2:20 PM | PERMALINK
The assessment also expresses deep doubts that the government of Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki can overcome sectarian divisions and meet benchmarks intended to promote political unity.
They're kidding right? Is that horse still on life support?
al-Maliki never had any intention of uniting Iraq. His goal like Hakim's was to turn Iraq into a suburb of Tehran.
Failing? Not as far as Iran is concerned.
Posted by: Daryl on August 23, 2007 at 2:54 PM | PERMALINK
Kevin, it's time to ban Al. He doesn't actually read the posts and he never responds to direct questions. Why provide a venue for grade-Z flacks?
Posted by: Kenji on August 23, 2007 at 3:09 PM | PERMALINK
Why is "Social Disease" Hanson on my radio right now???
Posted by: Blue Girl, Red State (aka G.C.) on August 23, 2007 at 3:13 PM | PERMALINK
Thanks benjoya and BGRS. I actually meant to say, "tiny improvement, none at all, or regression" (or something alone those lines) and forgot.
Actually, I have seen this same narrative year after year. Every year, fatalities and drop in the summertime. The neocons and warbloggers throw it in everyone's face as proof Freedom is on the March. Then, the attacks jump in the Fall, eclipsing both the summertime and previous year numbers. Then we are back to square one. This year, I give them credit, they've been much better at controlling the message, and the media has been typically lax at providing the full context of their statements (for example, the stuff about Anbar). But then again, a lot is at stake for them.
Posted by: Joshua on August 23, 2007 at 3:14 PM | PERMALINK
With all the talk (and leaks) about how Maliki is ineffective, I wouldn't be surprised if they remove Maliki and place someone else in his place. Then Bush will go out and tell us that the new puppet in Iraq needs a year before we pass judgement on him. And on and on this continues.
Posted by: rational on August 23, 2007 at 1:45 PM | PERMALINK
Rational gets it. . .
This is just another delaying tactic, in case they're unable to con us with the Petreus song-n-dance on 9/11.
Posted by: osama_been_forgotten on August 23, 2007 at 4:14 PM | PERMALINK
I thought we couldn't leave Iraq because it would get worse if we left. Doesn't this report mean, therefore, that we cannot stay because Iraq will get worse if we stay?
Posted by: cmdicely on August 23, 2007 at 6:57 PM | PERMALINK
Now if we could just get rid of that egsmell, every "once and a while".
On second thought, every village needs an idiot. (Well, one who isn't president, I mean.)
Posted by: Kenji on August 24, 2007 at 4:12 AM | PERMALINK
The situation is pretty grim, however the army seems to be saying that they will not extend the tours of duty beyond 15 months, so it could be very likely that the number of troops will be drawn down regardless of what Bush does. There's going to be a big fight in the Congress though when the Iraq report comes out in 3 weeks.
-stuart
Posted by: political forum on August 24, 2007 at 11:52 PM | PERMALINK
Precariouser and precariouser!
Posted by: fearlessfreep on August 25, 2007 at 11:59 PM | PERMALINK