Warner said today that he wants to cut 5k by Xmas.

"In any case, I really don't see how Bush and Petraeus could possibly report enough progress in September to justify any troop drawdown."

How could they possibly justify OPPOSING the troop drawdown the Joint Chiefs are pushing?

1. Blame the Iraqi government for lack of progress during the "stable" surge period. Also, blame the Democrats for heartening the insurgents and al Qaeda in Iraq, motivating them to keep up attacks and help prevent the Iraqi government from accomplishing anything.

2. Declare the surge, having latest the scheduled 6 months, over, and begin bringing troops home.

3. Blame the Iraqi government and the Democrats for whatever aftermath occurs after the start of the withdrawal.

"Declare the surge, having [lasted] the scheduled 6 months, over, and begin bringing troops home."

Sounds like a drawdown. Sounds impossible. Sounds impossibly close to abandoning Viet Nam a second time.

Kevin Drum >"...What rationale could they offer up with a straight face, after all?"

"We`re really sorry cause we messed up badly so many of the troops are coming home immediately"

Ohhh, wait

You said "with a straight face", never mind...

"Against stupidity, the very gods themselves must contend in vain." - Friedrich von Shille

What is our mission over there anyway? To march or drive around until an insurgent shoots at us or explodes an IED? What the fuck???

Can anyone articulate it more clearly than that? How fucking stupid. Get out immediately!!!

In any case, I really don't see how Bush and Petraeus could possibly report enough progress in September to justify any troop drawdown.

You have it completely backwards Kevin. Keeping more troops in Iraq would allow more time for Maliki and other leaders of Iraq to agree to political reconciliation so that political progress may occur.

Why does everyone expect the results of the surge to be immediate?

Mechanically I'd expect a time delay of 2 or 3 FU's. It's all about fly paper density and recruitment rates. When the troops spend a lot of time on the streets they draw suicide bombers toward them. There is then a delay while new suicide bombers are recruited and trained. They key is providing targets that are so inviting that the insurgency fails to maintain an efficient assembly line process for equipment and human resources. To the extent that we define the pace of their attacks we also affect the efficacy of future attacks. My guess is we will see a lot fewer casualties in January 2009.

Pace's plan has been assessed by the JCS to be the pragmatic approach. How likely is it that Pace and Petraeus have not spoken (well, their aides, actually)? Since they have in all likelihood discussed this, the only party who has not weighed in is the Decider-in-Chief (DiC). Since this pragmatic course is designed with the troops in mind, at least as far as being able to respond to other crises, it will be rejected for not achieving the political aim of the DiC head.

That aim is to regain the Hill, lost in Nov., through this first step of insisting on continuing the surge in order to leave the Dems the choice of either supporting the surge as it works its magic or continuing to argue it's not working in the face of "evidence" that it is.

Rove hasn't left yet. When political capital can be earned, Rove is there to maximize the returns, literally and figuratively.

What amazes me, Kevin, is that you expect BushCo to argue in good faith.

What they will do is standard Rovist methods: Lie and do whatever the hell they want.

Warner is a complete joke. The fix is in. Bush will just promise to bring a few troops home for Christmas. He'll undermine Maliki, install another puppet, and buy more time -- with the support of HRC and the dems.

Pathetic.

"In any case, I really don't see how Bush and Petraeus could possibly report enough progress in September to justify any troop drawdown. What rationale could they offer up with a straight face, after all?"
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
What? Bush can lie to your face and not blink.

"Heckuva job, Brownie!" "Alberto Gonzales is an honorable man." "If there is a leak out of my administration, I want to know who it is. And if the person has violated law, the person will be taken care of."

I think Bush lies even when it serves no purpose. The facts on the ground in Iraq mean nothing as to what Bush tells the electorate about the facts on the ground in Iraq.

It's not that the JCS have gone all Cindy Sheehan. The people in Training and Logistics just keep preparing these reports about what the Army can do. And by date X-ray, the Army won't be able to do its basic task. You can be sure they're telling sympathetic ears in Congress, which explains Warner. Not long from now it'll show up in The New Yorker, or a McLatchy paper. Whoever takes over November after next will get a report on Jan. 21 saying that the Army is broken, and will be so for months--or years.

The surge will end as the Brits pull out of southern Iraq. US troops will be reassigned to guarantee our already tenuous supply lines.

I was in theater last month. Those supply lines sure seemed stressed to me, although I don't want to say more.

The surge will end as the Brits pull out of southern Iraq. US troops will be reassigned to guarantee our already tenuous supply lines.

Gives a new meaning to "we'll stand up as they stand down".

You don't have to say any more, searp, the US has so much stuff in Iraq, including equipment the Army can't account for, withdrawal is supply in reverse. "a good portion of the entire US inventory of tanks, helicopters, armored personnel carriers, trucks and Humvees ... They are spread across 15 bases, 38 supply depots, 18 fuel-supply centers and 10 ammo dumps," not to speak of "dining halls, office buildings, vending machines, furniture, mobile latrines, computers, paper clips and acres of living quarters".

The supply convoys are regularly attacked, imagine the withdrawal convoys. Once begun, withdrawal might take 2 years.

Associated Press reporter Charles Hanley caught the enormity of withdrawal this way: "In addition to 160,000 troops, the US presence in Iraq has ballooned over four years to include more than 180,000 civilians employed under US government contracts - at least 21,000 Americans, 43,000 other foreigners and 118,000 Iraqis - and has spread to small 'cities' on fortified bases across Iraq." /em>

Cue Al explaining why the next six months will win the day, and Brojo sniffing about how there's no difference between the parties and if we'd only joined him in voting for Ralph Nader, and Kevin posting as if he himself didn't cheerlead IN FAVOR of invading Iraq. Ready? Action!

I got to listen to NPR this morning telling me how the "surge" is working militarily. Didn't seem right to me, so I checked some figures. Last month the U.S. military had 79 deaths in Iraq, July 2006 the number was 43. Big improvement there. This month it's 67 deaths and we still have a week left. August '06 was 65 total for the whole month. It's not any better for the Iraqis. The number based on news reports (probably a big underestimate)for July '07 was 1690. For July '06 it was 1280. For June '07 it was 1345, June '06 870. The administration must still be using Karl Rove's math. I guess none of this matters as we move on to our next distraction, getting rid of al Maliki. Yeah, now that weill make things much better!

A comprehensive withdrawal is never going to happen. We may eventually draw down to a small force but much of the supply, buildings and infrastructure we've hauled in is staying put. Abandoned if you will. We're not going to defend our backside in an organized retreat and have to worry about tents, portable toilets and tables and chairs.

There won't be a rationale for drawing down the troops in September because the President has already given his "Vietnam" analogy for staying the course. (I think he's been listening to Kissinger). The President is a compulsive gambler who magically belives the win is right around the corner.

slightly OT: I find it interesting that the GWB admin has been silent over the Iranians having entered into Iraq and attacking several small villages in Kurdistan in retaliation for the PKK assassination of an Iranian official. Apparently the GWB admin is 1) so concerned about offending Turkey, and 2) unwilling to acknowledge Iran's problem with terrorists, that they're letting this opportunity to bash Iran pass by.

The Army is exhausted. Why do you think the War Czar mentioned the draft a week or so ago?

Just about now the military is screaming at Bush his dreams can't be sustained by their reality.

In any case, I really don't see how Bush and Petraeus could possibly report enough progress in September to justify any troop drawdown.

I can. They can simply lie. What, like our media is actually gonna call them on it?

What rationale could they offer up with a straight face, after all?

Again, why should that stop them? They hardly need a straight face -- they could offer up the rationale that it's all for the children while rolling their eyes up in their head and sticking their tongues out and the media would be too cowed to do anything about it.

What rationale could they offer up with a straight face, after all?

What, you mean, besides "The troops are going home to spend more time with their families"?

For the first time in the past six years, that might actually have some truth to it.

Just about now the military is screaming at Bush his dreams can't be sustained by their reality.

Who needs reality when you can just BELIEVE it can be!

[IP check reveals banned commenter]

Hey let's sell all the stuff in Iraq to the Saudi's,(FOB Iraq).

Nice to hear that the General and Shrub are practising, their Cagney and Dan Dailey routine of "I'm a Yankee Doodle Dandy". Now, if only Condi could do a little Ruby Dee.

And a five, six, seven, eight

What is our mission over there anyway?

Win elections over here. Bury the Democrats once and for all. Civil War 2.0, by proxy.

Not just the long-coveted 'realignment', but a real Mulroney on them. Take them out of the equation. A one-party state. An American PRI.

Salt the earth. Use redistricting, ballot caging, ID laws, campaign finance 'reform', the police power of the national executive, to prevent the rise of an effective opposition, deep into mid-century.

Control fiscal policy, re-write the tax code, shape the regulatory environment, take over the courts, until mid-century. The potential ROI for a few thousand Americans, a few hundred thousand Iraqis dead, was immense.

Not just knock over the bank, but short its stock, fire all the guards, sell the building, and write grand larceny out of the statute books.

They came close, too. And the Democrats didn't struggle too much, did they?

Now they're down to hoping they can hand someone else the diaper. Big dreams grown very, very small.

General strike to end the war, September 11, 2007

In any case, I really don't see how Bush and Petraeus could possibly report enough progress in September to justify any troop drawdown.

Since when has anything done in this war been justified by anything with a rational connection to the facts?

Since when has the absence of such a justification been a serious impediment to policy choices in this war?

What rationale?

Now sorry y'all for the mess we made
It'sa way we figger that poker's played
Keep yer stinkin' Eye-raqi sand
Don't you fer'ners understand -
We'll all be free
's `mocracy
Now drop that RPG!

And it's one, two, three
What are we fightin' for?
Don't ask me I don't give a damn
Next stop Eye-raqistan!
And it's five, six, seven
No! No! Guantanamo Gate!
Now who started this row?
All Hat! No Cow!
Whoopie! We're all AWOL now!

"What rationale could they offer up with a straight face, after all?"

Bush will simply offer up rationales with his usual amount of smirking.

Before attacking Iran, some troops need to come home and be re-trained and outfitted for their deployment there.

Yes, Brojo, lots of haggling seminars on how to dicker in the Bazaar - Have to beat Lindsey Grahem's record in Iraq of buying five rugs for five dollars.

I think it will be more like training the troops to avoid radiation sickness.

Yeah, must not catch what appears to have permanently damaged Cheney's brain. Must have wandered into a radiation lab at Halliburton.

Pace is getting the "more time with my family" shove out the door, and now he's going public with his and JCS reservations that he/they have maintained all along, but ignored by Cheney and Petraeus. Now, whether spineless Congressional Demos and robotic Repubs will take all this on board is highly problematic, as the current narrative of "military progress" has them all cowed. Truly pathetic.

I think it will be more like training the troops to avoid radiation sickness.

Seen when has the GWB admin spent resources (much less time) on force protection?

That should be "Since when..."

Obviously I am suffering from radiation sickness.

Well, there were all of those Gideon Bibles passed out.

Didn't Petraeus himself say that the "surge" could NOT be maintained past next spring, unless perhaps duty tours were extended again from 15 months to 18 months?

Will Petraeus ask for this in his September report?

I think that will be a mighty hard sell. The only thing harder would be to start up the draft. Which in some ways I think would be rather entertaining, as men challenged it for excluding women and gays, and as men reported to the recruitment board and engaged in swapping spit with male friends while waiting to be assessed.

"I have no idea whether Pace and the JCS have any more influence now than they did last year when they advised against the surge and were told to stuff it."

Really? I think it's pretty obvious that Pace will not be listened to at all, since he didn't tell Bush what he wanted to hear about The Surge (tm) and got a Shinseki in response.

This is a parting shot from Pace in order to get himself pundit appearances with the MSM talking heads. (Not that there's anything wrong with that.)

Disputo >"...Iranians having entered into Iraq and attacking several small villages in Kurdistan in retaliation for the PKK assassination of an Iranian official..."

All part of the evil plan to fight Iran. See if the Iranians enter Iraq & start fighting then the U.S. doesn`t have to invade Iran.

It`s all part of the flypaper theory.

[snark]
I wonder how long before the cable shows call and want me to appear on them.
[/snark]

"Discovery consists of seeing what everybody has seen and thinking what nobody has thought." - Albert von Szent-Gyorgyi