Just what I was saying before.

The surest way to be wrong in the situation is to assume that the Israeli gvmt is a rational actor. You'd think that people who've lived under the GWB regime for almost 7 years would have a better appreciation for that.

All I need to read is that Dick Cheney 'portrays' the Israeli intelligence as credible to know that it is not.

"This is really the damnedest thing. But one thing is sure: the Israeli evidence must have been pretty far from a smoking gun if there's this much confusion even among the top mucky mucks. Very peculiar."

No Kev, not peculiar. And the confusion is among the mucky mucks in Damascus and the PRK.
The Israeli evidence is stronger than dirt. Whether it's a nuclear weapons program in its infancy, a hiding place for NK nuclear material or an attempt to provide Syria with a "dirty" missle warhead, whatever it is, it is definitely nuclear. And now Syria and NK know that we know. Thank you very much, NYT. Rice and Cheney, good cop/bad cop, carrot and stick, open hand/closed fist.
I wouldn't want to be in Kim's or Asaad's shoes.

What Disputo said. God bless you, Kevin, for your good-hearted but naive optimism. That is, your belief that somewhere in the Israeli and US governments there are thinking human beings who can at least sometimes be counted on to exercise rational cognition.

The reality is, their three part philosophy goes, “1. If they hit us, hit them back ten times harder. 2. If we suspect they might hit us, proof not needed. Hit them as a warning. 3. We don’t need no excuses. Hit them for the hell of it! Ain’t war fun?”

Shorter majarosh: The Israeli military was involved, so they must be right.

I see no reason to think that the Israeli government is not a rational actor. However, their motives and goals are not the same as our motives and goals, and their utility functions are different from ours.

I fail to see what 7 years of the GWB experience has anything to do with how we should view the Israeli government.

Similarly, it's not clear to me why Kevin necessarily thinks that Israel showed all of its intelligence to us. This is not me saying I think their evidence was rock solid. All I am saying is that I don't know why Kevin thinks they showed all of its evidence to us.

Several, in fact many, sources are reporting that Israel struck (unless it missed) a site where experimental work was going on with putting chemical weapons on medium range N.K. Nodong missiles. That's probably the Korean connection unless the NK freighter was bringing more missiles in. Some reports say that a small number of North Koreans and Iranians who were helping the Syrians were killed in the strike.

I heard Benjamin Netanyahu say that the strike was necessary so that peace negotiations could continue with Syria. That doesn't make sense in any scenario, but certainly not if nukes were involved.

Try Googling "Syria, Israel strike, Nodong". I'm pretty sure you'll hit the sources I've read.

I'd be pretty surprised if Syria had the wherewithal to build a nuclear processing site, since they don't have the oil wealth that much of the Middle East has. If the Bushies are looking for secret nuclear facilities, I'd be looking in Saudi Arabia. But, we aren't going to do fuck-all to provoke them since they are long-time business partners with the Bush family.

Saudia Arabia and Israel have the olly-olly-ox-in-free go-ahead to build as many nukes as they want, apparently. What a stupid fucking Administration this is....

Ever since this story broke, the engine that has kept it running is this bizarre proposition: the Israeli veil of secrecy concerning the nature of its target is what "proves" that the target was so significant. On the contrary, the secrecy has created on open field for speculation ranging from this being a "dry run" in preparation for an attack on Iran (though since that would have undermined the element of surprise, a bit of Iran-directed saber rattling is more plausible); a demonstration of Israel's ability to disable Syria's air defenses (though it's hard to understand why, if they could do this, Israel would want to publicize the fact and thereby give their adversaries a heads-up); and of course, an attack on a "nuclear facility." And whereas last month it was being reported that Israeli commandos had gathered "samples" at the site providing forensic evidence of the connection to North Korea (North Korean mud off a North Korean boot?), we're now told that "officials disagree ... whether the accumulated evidence points to a Syrian nuclear program that poses a significant threat to the Middle East."

When it comes to the known facts, at this point we don't actually know for a fact that Israel did anything more than penetrate Syrian air space. One of the few journalists who has actually attempted to report this story by visiting the location of the "strike" was told by locals that they heard sonic booms but no explosions.

How many more weeks do we have to wait before the neocon rumor mill runs out of steam and we can conclude what could have been assumed well before now: the reason the veil of secrecy has been held down so tight is because there's nothing behind it!

As for my own theory about what happened, it is this: Israel's new defense minister and would-be future prime minister, Ehud Barak, wanted to demonstrate that he's a man of action who can restore Israel's military pride after last year's disastrous performance last year in Lebanon. It was a fake act of war in which the IAF gambled that Syria would not rise to the bait. The secrecy was meant to hide the charade. Instead it provided an open season on opportunistic neocon rumors aimed at North Korea, Iran, the State Department and any other conceivable target of opportunity.

My favorite explanation of the Israeli air strike is that they attempted to destroy Saddam's WMDs that were shipped to Syria before the US invasion. Yeah, that's the ticket!

I'm more or less with Woodward. As it stands, the flight path description from WaPo (out to sea, north, pass over Turkey, duck inside the Syrian border) negates the notion of a practice run, miraculous weapons and all of that. There was a target, and they hit it in a small raid that may or may not have involved direct hits.

And now they aren't saying anything, and some people are claiming nukes are involved, but I have absolutely no reason to believe that nukes ARE involved: where's the actual evidence? As it stands it sounds like the Israelis may have thought nukes were involved and it turns out that they just fucked up. Or the nukes notion is just an excuse.

max
['There's no there there at this point.']

WaPo flight path description seems to be their own invention. General consensus is that planes (possibly part of a larger force the stayed in holding pattern over the Med) crossed Syria's Mediterranean coast heading east, made a fuss over Dayr-ez-Zor, headed north-northwest to the border near Tel Abyad, then back to the Med along the Syrian-Turkish border to rejoin the main force, then back to Israel. The lavish leaks that suggest commando raids and capture of samples etc raise more questions than they answer.

If something HAD been detected, do you really think that the Cheney clan would have been able to contain its excitement and NOT go public. Fat chance. They're desperate for credible evidence to support their efforts to widen the Middle East conflict and divert attention from their Iraq stuff-up. Similarly, Israel's government and military would find great value in something that might recover the reputations tarnished by the 2006 experience in Lebanon.

This is really the damnedest thing. But one thing is sure: the Israeli evidence must have been pretty far from a smoking gun if there's this much confusion even among the top mucky mucks.

It must be virtually non-existent if the only group that seems to find it credible consists of Richard B. "Reconstituted nuclear weapons" "We know where Saddam's WMD are" Cheney and his closest associates, and even the rest of the Bush Administration isn't convinced.

Some reports say that a small number of North Koreans and Iranians who were helping the Syrians were killed in the strike.

Good lord, North Koreans, Iranians, AND Syrians teaming up? I hope someone has notified the Superfriends.

I think you're misreading both the NYT report and how intelligence, much less foreign policy works in a raid like this.

I read it as Rice saying 'well, we'll still talk to them: why not?' That sure as hell doesn't say the Israelis were wrong; it just says we're not them.

And being of a suspicious turn of mind, when a senior un-named official says of a foreign country's intelligence that we dunno if it's true, that tells me we know more than we want to say. (If you REALLY don't know whether it's true, you say nothing.)

Yanno, one possibility has gotten very little discussion: the Israelis might not have been hitting material so much as personnel.

As I understand it, the North Koreans had shipped something to Syria just a few days before. I suppose like a lot of stuff, it MIGHT have been some sorta harmless tech -- but it might have also been "intended" or "capable" of being used for bad stuff: the usual he said/she said stuff.

But North Korea has to have scientists and military guys who are known to build bad stuff, right? If the North Korean Colonel in charge of dirty bomb manufacturing just happened to be at the site, it'd make sense for Israel to have blown up "an empty warehouse" -- and for everybody involved to keep their mouths shut about it: Israel, cuz actions speak louder, Syria, cuz somebody blabbed the guy was there, North Korea, cuz the guy was there, and US, cuz we have nothing to say.

I know let's all speculate and make shit up. That's what we did in Iraq.

I'm sticking with my theory that Israel offed some short range missile launchers and tested their radar jamming equipment at the same time. Combined with the fire at the Syrian chemical weapons plant in July, Israel gets a hat trick, and Cheney got China to walk out of Condi's mideast peace talks.

Up to today no one has gone on record to say that there were nukes. GHWB's NSC said no nukes. Condi is getting her press releases printed and Stephen Haddley is still stovepipping info. Check the Oct 6th thread for my sources.

I know let's all speculate and make shit up. That's what we did in Iraq.

Exactly. And it is no surprise that the nominal libs who fell for the WMD nonsense 5 yrs ago are now once again carrying the neocons' water for them.

I'm sorry to correct you, Kevin, the proper term is "muckety-mucks."

I don't see confusion over the nature of the Israeli target. None of those named have expressed doubts it was nuclear. It seems to be a split in the opinions about how significant is the threat & how we deal with it. Events since the attack seem to indicate Cheney is losing his 4th Branch as boss status. That is the good news.

Considering past bent intelligence statements from this administration, we can't be sure it is nuclear in nature. I am assuming it is based solely on the strange reactions around the globe concerning the Israeli attack. I could be wrong.

Further clouding the air is a possible tie in with the story about the nuclear armed missiles being sent to Barksdale AF base. There is quite a bit of static on the net about how this story could be a revolt by factions of the military against a possible plot to bomb Iran. (google B52, nukes, Iran, AF or something similar for details) Logic would seem to dictate that the B52/nukes story was leaked rather than an SOP procedure & that it is much more likely they were ordered there rather than a breakdown of procedures.

Interesting times we live in. Keep the Tums handy.

Ah, Kevin.

Just what I've been saying all along. We'll never be truly safe until we get the intestinal fortitude to go in there (the Middle East) and clean out the whole nest of snakes. Drain the swamp. Lance the boil. Since they're not with us, they must be agin' us.

If we don't use our military and get this vital job done and done right, why the heck do we have it?

I was also right when I said we shoulda gotten this job done right the first time. When we were in there, before.
You know, the 12th Century. The Crusades.

I'm sorry Kevin. You lost me when you used "Cheney", "conservative hawks", and "intelligence" in the same sentence.

If there were nuclear weapons involved there would radioactivity present for third party observers to detect.

I haven't heard of any such reports so I really doubt there was any nuclear program involved.

Interesting to see Syria's pretty transparent dog and pony show in the NYT.

egberto hearts alberto,

Tough talk. When are YOU joining the military and shipping out?
I told you when this was first mentioned that we were being lied to. We still are.
Netanyahu said something? LOL! Please! Bolton? More chickenhawk squawk!!