Editore"s Note
Tilting at Windmills

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December 11, 2007
By: Kevin Drum

WALL STREET....Back in November, when Fed vice chairman Donald Kohn merely suggested that the Fed might cut interest rates, Wall Street rallied and the Dow Jones gained 330 points. Happy days! Today, the Fed announced that it actually had cut interest rates, so Wall Street was happy all over again, right? Of course not: "Investors reacted by sending the markets sharply lower, pushing the Dow down more than 200 points in a matter of minutes."

Yeah, yeah, I know: investors had already priced in the prospect of a rate cut, so the actual rate cut itself didn't matter. If you believe that, fine. Personally, I think it's just further evidence that Wall Street investors are clueless. They should have figured out what that rate cut meant weeks ago, and the answer is: nothing good.

Kevin Drum 3:24 PM Permalink | Trackbacks | Comments (96)

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two words: herd mentality

Posted by: mudwall jackson on December 11, 2007 at 3:31 PM | PERMALINK

The US financial markets are very, very effective over the long haul, and (often) profoundly stupid in the near term. Bernenke told them "no" (sort of), and they had a hissey fit. The end result being that a bunch of clowns who think they're the masters of the universe because they know how to slap a pitch book together don't make bonus. Screw 'em.

There are real world consequences, but twenty-five basis points don't make that much difference.

Posted by: hotrod on December 11, 2007 at 3:35 PM | PERMALINK

Yeah, yeah, I know: investors had already priced in the prospect of a rate cut, so the actual rate cut itself didn't matter.

Not quite...

What happened is that Wall Street had expected, and already priced in, a *half pt* rate decrease. When the Fed announced a mere *quarter pt* decrease, the market went down. All to be expected.

Posted by: Disputo on December 11, 2007 at 3:40 PM | PERMALINK

At least in Vegas they never take the punch bowl away.

Posted by: David W. on December 11, 2007 at 3:41 PM | PERMALINK

A lot of people wanted to sell because they think a recession is likely. However, they figured they would wait until today because the knew the fed would cut the interest rate, and they figured they'd get more for their stocks. Unfortunately, everybody had the same idea.

Posted by: DR on December 11, 2007 at 3:41 PM | PERMALINK

Btw, I am glad that the Fed is resisting throwing more red meat to those who want the bubble to continue; I just wish that they had the backbone to resist any rate decrease. We're already looking at near double-digit inflation next year as it is.

Posted by: Disputo on December 11, 2007 at 3:43 PM | PERMALINK

Kevin,

A recession may come next year, or it may not. The funny thing is that when they do come, they are usually a surprise to most everyone.

Posted by: Yancey Ward on December 11, 2007 at 3:48 PM | PERMALINK

disputo beats me to the punch: this is all about 25 basis points.

exactly why investors think that incremental 25 basis points is worth so much to the present discounted value of the future profit stream of american businesses is something i didn't - and don't - understand.

hotrod, ben graham wrote that in the short term, the market is a voting machine but in the long term, the market is a weighing machine....

Posted by: howard on December 11, 2007 at 3:50 PM | PERMALINK

Like Disputo said, the federal funds rate cut "implied" by the FF futures market was about 60% probability of .25 cut, about 40% for .5 cut.

If I remember correctly. So a significant part of the market was surprised, and bummed.

Posted by: luci on December 11, 2007 at 3:52 PM | PERMALINK

Wall Street investors? You mean the enormous institutional pools that jack the dow up and down depending on the credit supply.

I think all we're seeing is a game of chicken using the media's favorite psychological measuring tool. If ever you needed evidence that the market has nothing to do with the underlying economy, this is it.

Posted by: Will Divide on December 11, 2007 at 3:54 PM | PERMALINK

You have to factor in that the European Central Bank held its base rate steady last week (there was actually some advance guessing that the ECB might RAISE a quarter-percent). It's a reminder that the U.S. economy ain't alone.

While a half-point cut might have made financial institutions giddy in the short term, it would have made the dollar take another dive intot eh crapper.

Posted by: SocraticGadfly on December 11, 2007 at 4:00 PM | PERMALINK

Mall traffic was down from a year ago.

Posted by: Brojo on December 11, 2007 at 4:03 PM | PERMALINK

The triumph of the Rational Economic Man and the Wisdom Of The Free Market. Yeah!

Posted by: Joey Giraud on December 11, 2007 at 4:05 PM | PERMALINK

I wanted a half point cut! WAAAAAAA! I WANTED A HALF POINT CUT!!!! I'M GOING TO JUMP AND YOU CAN'T STOP ME!! IT'S NOT FAIR! NOT FAIR!!!

(stomping, rug-chewing, withdrawals, etc)

Posted by: Wall St on December 11, 2007 at 4:07 PM | PERMALINK

As various have said, the expectation was about 40% that there would be a 1/2 point cut. This was all factored in and a very simple decision tree was ready for (0) no cut (bad) (1) 1/4 point 200 points down apparently (2) 1/2 point - rally.
The difference between 1/4 and 1/2 a point was apparently quite high.

The interesting thing was the speed of the move. Approximately 200 points down in

Posted by: Bill Arnold on December 11, 2007 at 4:13 PM | PERMALINK

I think the issue was that the Fed had floated the idea of a half-point rate cut.

Posted by: josh on December 11, 2007 at 4:13 PM | PERMALINK

Alternatively, Wall Street goes up and down with at best a loose relationship to economic moves like rate-cut announcements.

Posted by: Shelby on December 11, 2007 at 4:13 PM | PERMALINK

The cut in the Fed Funds rate was not the only news that the markets reacted to.

Supposedly the markets were also pricing in a bigger cut in the discount rate than what materialized. A cut there would have signaled to investors that the Fed was taking ongoing credit concerns more seriously.

And the Board did not say whether it was more concerned about inflation or growth, which it traditionally does. The markets are clearly more worried about growth right now, so when the Fed implied by its silence that inflation is still an issue, that surprised the markets, too.

Posted by: JimVA on December 11, 2007 at 4:14 PM | PERMALINK

Today's market drop illustrates the old Wall Street saw

Buy on the rumor, sell on the news.

In addition, some observers had been predicting a cut greater than a quarter of a point, so the actual rate cut disappointed some.

Posted by: ex-liberal on December 11, 2007 at 4:15 PM | PERMALINK

The markets are highly efficient--the spread between expectations and results is the only source of volatility, basically baking movement random. Diversify and ignore.

Posted by: House Whisperer on December 11, 2007 at 4:26 PM | PERMALINK

It goes even further than JimVA implied. I am not experienced at parsing Fed statements, but some see the today's statement as actually implying that the balance of risks is toward inflation. At a time when the economy is obviously slowing and could likely enter recession, this is an admission by the Fed that they are check-mated. It is like a note of excuse from the cavalry. Sorry, no rescue for you. They can save the dollar or they can save the credit markets. They can't do both. The reality of stagflation is setting in.

Posted by: wetzel on December 11, 2007 at 4:28 PM | PERMALINK

Correction above: Making, not Baking movement random. I have a cold.

Posted by: House Whisperer on December 11, 2007 at 4:29 PM | PERMALINK
Yeah, yeah, I know: investors had already priced in the prospect of a rate cut, so the actual rate cut itself didn't matter.

No, investors had already priced in the prospect of the expected rate cut, which was between a quarter and a half a point (or, rather, it was a probability function that included a certain probability of a quarter point and a certain probability of a half point, but that's the same for all practical purposes.)

The actual rate cut was a quarter point, which was a disappointment given the expectation of at least a quarter and perhaps a half point.

That being said, another thing to consider is that market news is, pretty much without exception, poorly reported. While the rate cut was announced and is the most obvious market-related news, it is probably not accurate to attribute the drop entirely to that piece of news, but news coverage of financial markets will, almost invariably, attribute whatever movement occurs during a day to whatever the most obvious big news item of the day is.

For some, post hoc ergo propter hoc is a fallacy. For reporters covering financial markets, though, it seems to be the rule to live by.

Posted by: cmdicely on December 11, 2007 at 4:33 PM | PERMALINK

Isn't a lot of trading computer driven? If so has the "black box" gotten so opaque that no one knows what the "box" will do on any given day on any given news?

Posted by: dilbert dogbert on December 11, 2007 at 4:34 PM | PERMALINK

Er Kevin, let's run that tape again.

S&P 500 before Kohn's comments: 1428
After Kohn's comments (close 11/28): 1469

S&P 500 before 1/4 point announced: 1516
The close, today: 1478.

Don't look at the changes: study the levels. Look at where they ended up. A *definite* cut in the fed funds rate is worth 1478, only a little more than Kohn's ruminations (worth 1469).

---
Hey, I'm not saying markets are rational. I'm saying that Kevin is looking at the problem in the wrong way.

Posted by: Measure for Measure on December 11, 2007 at 4:36 PM | PERMALINK

(stomping, rug-chewing, withdrawals, etc)

Wait a minute -- what's wrong with that?

Posted by: Gregory on December 11, 2007 at 4:40 PM | PERMALINK

...Wall Street investors are clueless... Nice one. That was going to get them going.

Come one, fellas. Envy is never attractive. And investing is key to America's success.

Posted by: Bob M on December 11, 2007 at 4:55 PM | PERMALINK

Not all that difficult to understand. Investors know a Big Shitpile when they see one, and they expected the Fed to see it too and lower rates by 50 points this time around. The 25 points were already factored in, and the failure to lower 50 points caused a sell off on dashed hopes. Other Banks around the world are lowering rates too as their economies are slowing down, and oil is dropping, so further rate cuts are not likely to be inflationary at this time, and can be implemented now with little downside. The failure of the Fed to lower 50 points leaves some investors scratching their heads. Again, for the people here who state that rate cuts are inflationary, with the Big Shitpile of credit paper and the credit squeeze going on, inflation is a distant memory and if the Fed tries to fight inflation now with world economies slowing they will be making a mistake, in my humble opinion.

Posted by: Jammer on December 11, 2007 at 4:56 PM | PERMALINK

One more thought, individual investors may be clueless, but the market itself is not. It is an almost perfect predictor of the future, you just never know what it was predicting until it happens.

Posted by: Jammer on December 11, 2007 at 4:58 PM | PERMALINK

Gregory,
What, you like eating your hairpiece? Uck!

Posted by: optical weenie on December 11, 2007 at 4:59 PM | PERMALINK

From the post-depression years until Reganomics the stock market used to be about investing capital in businesses that would grow, prosper and return the capital plus profit to the investor. Investment returns were expected (and measured) in years or even decades.

Now, (like the roaring 20's) it's simply a big financial roulette wheel... being spun wildly in all directions by masssive computer-generated flows of imaginary capital. Investment returns are measured in hours or days.

Reality has nothing to do with it.
Reality has nothing to do with home prices.
Reality has nothing to do with Iraq.

Fasten your seat belts.

Posted by: Buford on December 11, 2007 at 5:18 PM | PERMALINK

cmdicely: For some, post hoc ergo propter hoc is a fallacy. For reporters covering financial markets, though, it seems to be the rule to live by.

Exactly. The reason is that these reporters must write an article each day explaining why the market did what it did. Usually a one-day movement is not easily explainable. So, the reporters seize on something that happened that day and write, "Market gains (or loses) on (whatever)"

But, these reporters seldom write their articles before the market moves. So, they can't ever be shown to be wrong.

Posted by: ex-liberal on December 11, 2007 at 5:19 PM | PERMALINK

Investment returns are measured in hours or days.
On the cutting edge of insanely mechanized capitalism, it's more like 10s/100s of milliseconds, with financially significant differences in reaction time measured in milliseconds. (So I've been led to believe, FWIW.)

Posted by: Bill Arnold on December 11, 2007 at 5:28 PM | PERMALINK

cmdicely: "For some, post hoc ergo propter hoc is a fallacy. For reporters covering financial markets, though, it seems to be the rule to live by."

Agreed, but from a different perspective. First, I think analysts develop many more technical explanations than the market deserves, leading to conclusions that individual dealers are ingnorant, but the market is not.

I think it's the reverse The stock market is fundamentally a gambling game--much more so since technology has reduced the time required to make a "trade" to fractions of seconds. The result is that market activity has little to do with the reality of the economic picture and everything to do about margins and timing.

The smart individual dealer bets on movement of the market -- up or down -- looks for clues (poker players call them "tells") and places his bets (shorts and longs) on these expectations. The market as a whole and the economic context within which it operates are largely irrelevant to him.

It's all about gambling. Serious technical discussions are akin to putting lipstick on a hog. Looks nice, but still a hog.

Posted by: wileycat on December 11, 2007 at 6:48 PM | PERMALINK

In my previous post, following "largely irrelevant to him" should colclude "except insofar as these affect market movement."

Gremlins are everywhere....

Posted by: wileycat on December 11, 2007 at 6:58 PM | PERMALINK

wileycat, i appreciate that traders move rapidly and that volumes are enormous; i also appreciate that traders are constantly looking for small edges.

but "the market" represents the sum of all current knowledge, opinion, hope, and guess regarding the present discounted value of future profit streams. as ben graham said, in the short term, the market is a voting machine; in the long term it is a weighing machine.

that is, in the short term (as graham also noted), the market is manic depressive and may over or under emphasize certain realities, but in the long term, values do out.

it's essentially adam smith's "invisible hand" at work: regardless of the motivations of individual traders, the collective mechanism of the market works to establish values. it's part of the system that many of its participants are gamblers.

but as ben graham also told us (and as warren buffett, his student, reiterates time and again): you don't have to swing the bat. you, individually, are unlikely to be smarter than the market (hence, "random walk" theory), but if you are disciplined about looking for certain kinds of values, you can (as buffet and others have) outperform over medium-long terms by taking advantage of the manic depressive cycle and ignoring the noise.

Posted by: howard on December 11, 2007 at 7:32 PM | PERMALINK

Howard - you sum it up very well. Can't disagree with your observations, and certainly not with Warren Buffet. My frustration is with those who seek to parse and describe in technical terms the "invisible hand" of the market, which often seems to be irrational but in fact is behaving rationally in a way we haven't figured out yet.

Posted by: wil; on December 11, 2007 at 7:44 PM | PERMALINK

exactly why investors think that incremental 25 basis points is worth so much to the present discounted value of the future profit stream of american businesses is something i didn't - and don't - understand.

Howard: I suspect the most likely answer is that they fear -- probably correctly -- that the Fed is afraid to cut more aggressively because of inflation and/or currency fears. Weak economy + naggingly pesky inflation is something American hasn't seen in a long while, lucky for America.

Posted by: Jasper on December 11, 2007 at 8:32 PM | PERMALINK

I don't really have much to add to the pointed insights above. Except perhaps to say that, the fallacy in *ANY* observations about the market is to treat it as a monolithic entity is the issue. Its more of a shortcut way of describing something like "what happened in the market today resulted in a drop in prices or a massive rally in prices".

Since we all love shortcuts (as an aside I see the tendency all around to reduce names to one syllable whenever possible here in the US) - we end up making up such silly assertions.

Well, I will stop here - since its all too obvious ...

Posted by: DesiPanchi on December 11, 2007 at 8:46 PM | PERMALINK

jasper, i've long said that the logical outcome of bush league economics is stagflation lite, which in many ways we've already been enduring (lack of real income growth, lackluster job growth) despite adequate gdp numbers. in that sense, we (and the fed) are indeed between a rock and a hard place, and due to the massive fiscal irresponsibility of the bush administration, fiscal stimulus isn't available to us either.

still, it's odd that traders are only suddenly realizing this due to a 25 bps rather than 50 bps rate cut....

Posted by: howard on December 12, 2007 at 12:44 AM | PERMALINK

And investing is key to America's success.

As Buford pointed out, this is what's wrong with our economy. Companies don't make products anymore -- they make money. They'll cut back on capital improvements needed for the long-term growth of the company if it means an extra cent on their dividend in the next quarter.

We see it in the mortgage meltdown right now. Banks don't provide loans as a product to customers anymore -- they provide them so they can take the loan, bundle it with others, and sell them at a profit to another entity, which sells it to a third party, which sells it to fourth, fifth, and sixth parties. So even if you want to refinance your loan, good luck figuring out who owns it, and they probably won't accept a refinance even if you do, because you're a piece of their investment portfolio, not a customer.

Posted by: Mnemosyne on December 12, 2007 at 1:02 PM | PERMALINK

Howard 3:50 PM,

exactly why investors think that incremental 25 basis points is worth so much to the present discounted value of the future profit stream of american businesses is something i didn't - and don't - understand.
Wall Street is all about the economy and GDP. The fed is primarily about stopping inflation, less about the economy. Both of them know that the recession is coming in 2008, and both already know that it will be the worst in over three decades.

The half point was supposed to tell Wall Street that the fed was more concerned, now, about preventing recession and arranging for a 'soft landing' for the recession, than about limiting inflation, and the fed shoved it in their face.

But the fed knows that every quarter point they lower the interest rate, the more it will cause the international value of the dollar to drop. That is inflationary in itself, but if OPEC generally follows Iran's lead and starts selling oil in currency other than dollars, then a really major source of demand for dollars (buying oil) will simply disappear, putting even more downward pressure on the dollar. (Supply and demand for the dollar - no petro dollar, a lot of demand will simply disappear, while the same supply is already out there.) OPEC doesn't want to see any rate cut at all, because of their dollar-denominated investments.

It wasn't the bond market that went down - they're a good part of why the fed has to control inflation. The bond market would drop as they began to build in anticipated inflation to the interest rates. The fed just told the Bond Market they will defend against inflation first. Wall street was just told that they are going to suffer more then they thought, so the stock market dropped sharply.

The fed is not about preventing the coming recession. That's inevitable now, with some mixture of recession and inflation. {Yep. Stagflation, like Nixon/Ford gave to Carter. Thanks Greenspan.] It's about which way the fed is going to spread the pain of the recession. The Fed just told Wall Street - "Coal for Xmas. No soft landing from the recession for you."

The damage to the economy from inflation would be a lot more long term than from a recession, and in the end it would still take a sharp recession (like Carter's 1979 fed appointee, Paul Volker, caused in 1981 and 1982) to break the back of inflationary expectations. Those inflationary expectations were causing the stagflation that Ford was fighting with his WIN (Whip Inflation Now) buttons. Volker let the economy drop as long as it took to convince everyone the fed would stop inflation no matter how bad the recession hurt. Then too, if a Republican wants to hand off a nasty recession to an incoming President, he prefers to do it to a Democrat.

That's my best bet, anyway.

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