Editore"s Note
Tilting at Windmills

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December 27, 2007

POLLS, POLLS, POLLS....On Monday, the American Research Group released a very surprising new poll out of Iowa, which has caused quite a stir when it showed Hillary Clinton with a 14-point lead over her closest Democratic competitors in Iowa.

An outlier? Probably. New results from the LAT show a far more competitive race.

In New Hampshire, Obama has 32% of Dem primary voters to Hillary's 30%, while Edwards trails with 18% -- a big swing from September, when Obama was losing to Hillary, 35%-16%.

Meanwhile, in Iowa, Hillary is edging Obama, 29%-26%, while Edwards has 25%, a statistical dead heat.

Of course, as Pollster.com's Mark Blumenthal explained, any poll conducted over the holiday season is bound to be problematic.

Caveat emptor.

Steve Benen 10:06 PM Permalink | Trackbacks | Comments (11)

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Comments

Less likely than your post indicates Steve.

Among LIKELY VOTERS, which is what the ARG poll measured, it is Clinton 31, Edwards 25, Obama 22.

Posted by: Armando on December 27, 2007 at 10:30 PM | PERMALINK

Yes, Armando is right. Clinton looks inevitable again, and I EXPECT her to win by 9+ points in Iowa. I mean, she is fated to be our leader, isn't she? So if this poll is any indication, she shouldn't have any trouble trouncing her two rivals.

Posted by: lampwick on December 27, 2007 at 10:33 PM | PERMALINK

Snark aside, Armando is correct. So, why does Greg Sargent feel an update is warranted and Steve does not?

Posted by: david on December 27, 2007 at 10:51 PM | PERMALINK

Clinton looks inevitable again, and I EXPECT her to win by 9+ points in Iowa.

Indeed. Clinton should win by AT LEAST ten points in Iowa, maybe fifteen. If she doesn't win by a large margin then that would suggest that she's crashing badly as Obama and Edwards gain more recognition. But clearly at this point she's so far in the lead that things would have to be going pretty badly for her to finish with anything less than a twenty point victory over Obama, maybe even twenty five points if she's as disciplined a campaigner as her reputation says.

Posted by: bob on December 27, 2007 at 10:54 PM | PERMALINK

The turnout for the Iowa caucuses is tiny, and every polling company has a different model for who a "likely voter" is. So we just don't know, really, who will get their people to the polls. Now, if a candidate rises or falls in the same company's poll, that's probably measuring something real.

Posted by: Joe Buck on December 27, 2007 at 11:51 PM | PERMALINK

POLLS, POLLS, EVERYWHERE....

But nay a winch to dance...

Posted by: elmo on December 28, 2007 at 12:05 AM | PERMALINK

Forget the polls, and don't listen to the political prognosticators and talking media heads. Just get involved, support the candidate of your choice, and vote.

If for nothing else, let's resolve to conduct our politics in a manner that is worthy of the late Benazir Bhutto, who so believed in democracy's tenets and institutions that she willingly gave her life today, so that her people might once again enjoy those rights and privileges that we cavalier Americans so often take for granted.

Posted by: Donald from Hawaii on December 28, 2007 at 2:43 AM | PERMALINK

Clinton should win by AT LEAST eighty points in Iowa, maybe eighty-five. If she doesn't win by a large margin then that would suggest that she's crashing badly as Obama and Edwards gain more recognition. But clearly at this point she's so far in the lead that things would have to be going pretty badly for her to finish with anything less than a one-hundred-and-twenty point victory over Obama, maybe even one-hundred-and-fifty points if she's as disciplined a campaigner as her reputation says.

Posted by: anonymous on December 28, 2007 at 3:03 AM | PERMALINK

Clinton should win by AT LEAST eighty points in Iowa, maybe eighty-five.

Clearly. In fact, if Obama and Edwards don't immediately withdraw after the Iowa primaries, and bow down before Hillary saying "we're not worthy, we're not worthy," and if the GOP candidates don't just throw in the towel and concede that Hillary is clearly going to be the next president, then one would have to conclude that the wheels are coming off the bus in a big way and the Hillary Machine is in deep trouble. But she's a flawless campaigner and universally loved, with a record of impeccable decision making when it comes to whether or not to support Bush's current and potential wars, so any other outcome is too hard to even imagine.

Posted by: bob on December 28, 2007 at 5:15 AM | PERMALINK

Hi from France !
Elections are running in the Us.
What would you do after Bush ?
If you want to have somme fun and take a look to a french point of view on Bush policy and USA people go to :
the video clip "TAZUNIS" a song from Djamal visible at :
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ls20rl_KHpM

Dealing with USA and the Bush policy with humor and a vision for France.

Clearly against the new world order and putting forward positive values as negatives of united states !
Keep on fighting !

Posted by: Djamal on December 28, 2007 at 5:18 AM | PERMALINK

All I ask id fairness. Go to the pollsters site, read the numbers before yoo write about it. Chris Matthews last night used the all voters numbers for Hillary, then tried to use the likely voters numbers for Huckabee, until Craig Crawford called him out on it. Pollster.com uses the likely voter numbers for its trend line, and it is very informative. Even the Republican poll shows HRC gaiing rapidly.

Posted by: Ron Cantrell on December 29, 2007 at 9:56 AM | PERMALINK
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