Editore"s Note
Tilting at Windmills

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February 5, 2008
By: Kevin Drum

DELEGATE POOL....There are 1,681 pledged delegates up for grabs in the Democratic race today. So today's pool is: How do you think they're going to split up? The winner gets the warm feeling of being the smartest political prognosticator in the room.

My guess: Hillary 880, Obama 801. Leave your guess in comments.

Kevin Drum 2:36 PM Permalink | Trackbacks | Comments (113)

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Comments

BO - 860, Billary - 821

Complete and total guess.

Posted by: SLRG on February 5, 2008 at 2:39 PM | PERMALINK

Obama 925, Hillary 756.

Posted by: David Bailey on February 5, 2008 at 2:39 PM | PERMALINK

Hillary: 1100
Obama: 581

Posted by: cleek on February 5, 2008 at 2:39 PM | PERMALINK

Clinton 901
Obama 780

Posted by: Cols714 on February 5, 2008 at 2:40 PM | PERMALINK

Obama 1002, Hillary 679.

Posted by: Tony on February 5, 2008 at 2:40 PM | PERMALINK

840-1/2 each. That last delegate remained so undecided... out came the chain saw!
-

Posted by: Jay in Oregon on February 5, 2008 at 2:43 PM | PERMALINK

Obama: 1100
Hillary: 581

I think Obama's going to pull an upset.

Posted by: wendywriter on February 5, 2008 at 2:45 PM | PERMALINK

Clinton 974
Obama 707

Posted by: bcamarda on February 5, 2008 at 2:46 PM | PERMALINK

Clinton: 850
Obama: 831

I do hope you post the actual totals and that we are talking about just the delegates in play *today* and not the accumulated delegates.

Posted by: Doc at the Radar Station on February 5, 2008 at 2:47 PM | PERMALINK

How the hell should we know? The national polls are all over the place. Taking the 5 point Hillary advantage found in some polls and given how they are divided, however, it is unlikely that at the end of the day Hillary is going to have more than a 70 delegate advantage, probably less.

Given how hard and fast Obama has closed, a narrow win by Hillary is going to be easy for Obama to spin into a Hillary defeat. That is especially true since he has 20 million more to spend in the remaining states.

Posted by: corpus juris on February 5, 2008 at 2:48 PM | PERMALINK

Hillary: 865, Obama 816. Obama will even up the delegate count by the end of the primaries, but the super-delegates will swing the nomination to Hillary.

Posted by: fostert on February 5, 2008 at 2:49 PM | PERMALINK

Billary: 880
Barack: 801

Posted by: ROTFLMLiberalAo on February 5, 2008 at 2:49 PM | PERMALINK

Did you see the latest polls? Zogby has Obama up by 13 points making California a landslide victory for Obama. Other news includes Obama having a 20-point edge in Georgia. I predict Obama will win at least 900 delegates.

Posted by: Al on February 5, 2008 at 2:50 PM | PERMALINK

Clinton 1700
Obama -19

Managing expections? Who, me?

Posted by: JMS on February 5, 2008 at 2:53 PM | PERMALINK

Obama: 1000
Clinton: 681


Posted by: bobb on February 5, 2008 at 2:54 PM | PERMALINK

Obama 898
Hillary 783

It would be a big upset, but hey, the Giants just beat the Pats, right?

Posted by: Nobcentral on February 5, 2008 at 2:54 PM | PERMALINK

Clinton 874
Obama 807

If only votes from today were counted, it would be the other way around and with a bigger margin. But I think early voting will give Clinton the edge today, but it won't last through the next few primaries and caucuses.

Posted by: john on February 5, 2008 at 3:02 PM | PERMALINK

Clinton: 890
Obama: 791

Posted by: Jim W on February 5, 2008 at 3:02 PM | PERMALINK

My prediction:

1. Clinton edges Obama by a relatively small margin in the pledged delegates.

2. The Obama campaign comes up with an argument as strained as a popped out hernia for the notion that it was really Obama who won the hearts and minds of the people nonetheless.

4. Josh Marshall and Kevin put on their tightest thinking caps and, after careful, dispassionate, independent deliberation, declare that, by God, the Obama campaign is 100% right, and Hillary had better step aside so that the voice of the people can prevail.

Posted by: frankly0 on February 5, 2008 at 3:05 PM | PERMALINK

Hillary 792
Barack 889

BO has MO, HILL will be STILL.

Posted by: Dilbert on February 5, 2008 at 3:07 PM | PERMALINK

Obama - 971
Clinton - 710.

Posted by: freelunch on February 5, 2008 at 3:08 PM | PERMALINK

I know the polls aren't closed yet but I want to declare JMS at 2:53 winnder of the thread!

Posted by: thersites on February 5, 2008 at 3:09 PM | PERMALINK

um, make that winner.

Posted by: thersites on February 5, 2008 at 3:11 PM | PERMALINK

Obary - 841
Hilama - 840

Posted by: Yermaal on February 5, 2008 at 3:11 PM | PERMALINK

Hillary Clinton: 980
Barack Obama: 701

Posted by: Nate W. on February 5, 2008 at 3:12 PM | PERMALINK

Obama 903, Hilary 738

Posted by: akpundit on February 5, 2008 at 3:12 PM | PERMALINK

Hillary's going to do very well, particularly in California, which began voting after her "amazing" voice-finding comeback in N.H. What a raw deal.

Posted by: John on February 5, 2008 at 3:13 PM | PERMALINK

Obama -> 897
Clinton -> 784

Posted by: Banks on February 5, 2008 at 3:13 PM | PERMALINK

Obama: 897
Clinton: 784

Posted by: tor on February 5, 2008 at 3:18 PM | PERMALINK

Huh. I didn't mean to duplicate Banks. That was a coincidence. New guess:

Obama: 898
Clinton: 783

Posted by: tor on February 5, 2008 at 3:20 PM | PERMALINK

Hillary:941
Obama:740

Posted by: smacfarl on February 5, 2008 at 3:20 PM | PERMALINK

Dammit. That's Nobcentral's guess. What a loser I am.

Obama: 896
Clinton: 785

Posted by: tor on February 5, 2008 at 3:22 PM | PERMALINK

I'm guessing about the 1,678 delegates not including American Samoa (why do they get counted and not Democrats Abroad, who are also voting today?)

Hillary 871
Barack 807

Posted by: neil on February 5, 2008 at 3:23 PM | PERMALINK

A warm feeling in the delegate pool?..better throw a little chlorine in there as well.

Posted by: lutton on February 5, 2008 at 3:30 PM | PERMALINK

Obama - 958
Clinton - 723

Largely a guess, but I figure that Obama is going to pull off a major upset and beat Clinton by a double digit spread, so the question is, how bad? That said, I chose 57%/43% by splitting the difference between 55/45 and 60/40 wins. In the end it will probably be closer to 55/45.

Posted by: majun on February 5, 2008 at 3:31 PM | PERMALINK

INKBLOT - 1681
Obama - 0
Clinton - 0

Free nibblies and water at Kevin's house tonight!

Posted by: optical weenie on February 5, 2008 at 3:34 PM | PERMALINK

When the pollsters first missed the mark in Iowa, the social media research company I work for decided to see if the blogosphere was as wrong as the traditional media. Using a more primitive version of our current methodology, we were pleasantly surprised to see that a measurement of blog sentiment and activity would have correctly (if narrowly) predicted an Obama win. Our theory as to why this is: people so engaged in the political process that they publicly blog about their favorite candidates could fairly represent those who are engaged enough to vote in the primaries and caucuses at all. We followed 5 states for Super Tuesday and made overall and specific predictions, which can be found here, if you’re interested:

http://blog.collectiveintellect.com/2008/02/05/super-tuesday-blogosphere-predicts-mccain-obama-as-winners/

Posted by: Kevin on February 5, 2008 at 3:34 PM | PERMALINK

BO 880
HC 801

Posted by: mirror on February 5, 2008 at 3:37 PM | PERMALINK

I feel very confident about 775 to 906, I just don't know which way!

Posted by: doktorwise on February 5, 2008 at 3:38 PM | PERMALINK

I am impressed that optical weenie has managed to fight off both Clinton's & Obama's bandwagons to remain firmly in Inkblot's camp. Well done!

Obama: 802
Clinton: 879

Posted by: Craig Johnson's Brother's Son on February 5, 2008 at 3:39 PM | PERMALINK

BO: 845
HRC:836

...are you skipping the democrats abroad?

Posted by: lerxst on February 5, 2008 at 3:41 PM | PERMALINK

Clinton 920
Obama 761

Posted by: p_lukasiak on February 5, 2008 at 3:41 PM | PERMALINK

Obama - 1,000

Clinton - 681

Posted by: Brojo on February 5, 2008 at 3:43 PM | PERMALINK

Democrats Abroad probably doesn't count for today because we have all week to vote - Feb 5 - 12. Although I imagine most of us are voting today (I voted as soon as I sat down at my desk in the morning).

Posted by: Nobcentral on February 5, 2008 at 3:43 PM | PERMALINK

Obama - 840
Clinton - 835
Edwards - 6

Posted by: CA Pol Junkie on February 5, 2008 at 3:45 PM | PERMALINK

Obama: 1681
Clinton: 0

Posted by: The Audacity of Hope on February 5, 2008 at 3:46 PM | PERMALINK

Clinton 854
Obama 752
Edwards et al 75

Posted by: Jasper on February 5, 2008 at 3:46 PM | PERMALINK

I'll second Kevin and say 880 Clinton, 801 Obama. Damn I'm smart.

I just voted, and I know I made the right choice. I voted for Clinton!

Woo hoo!

Posted by: Swan on February 5, 2008 at 3:47 PM | PERMALINK

I'm really bad at math, but here goes. Delegate rhymes with Travelgate & Monicagate, which reminds everyone of Watergate, so that hurts Clinton. Watergate and the word "pool" dredge up stereotypical ideas of about African-American's and swimming. That hurts Obama. Remember to carry the 2, click your heels together, and repeat "I think we can, yes?" a dozen times, and you get:

Clinton: A case of New Coke
Obama: The Jeopardy! Take-Home Edition

Posted by: enozinho on February 5, 2008 at 3:47 PM | PERMALINK

Does your number include the 842 super-delegate votes? How pissed will people be when those votes decide the race?

Posted by: Tripp on February 5, 2008 at 3:48 PM | PERMALINK

Clinton 850, Obama 831.

Posted by: The Critic on February 5, 2008 at 3:51 PM | PERMALINK

Clinton: 840
Obama: 841

Posted by: Asa Dotzler on February 5, 2008 at 3:54 PM | PERMALINK

Clinton: 864

Obama:817

Posted by: Dublin on February 5, 2008 at 3:55 PM | PERMALINK

Obama 874
Clinton 807

Posted by: beans on February 5, 2008 at 3:58 PM | PERMALINK

Giants in a last minute upset!

Posted by: slanted tom on February 5, 2008 at 3:58 PM | PERMALINK

Does your number include the 842 super-delegate votes? How pissed will people be when those votes decide the race?

Extremely, which is why they won't.

Posted by: awrbb on February 5, 2008 at 4:02 PM | PERMALINK

O - 875
C - 806

Posted by: Subliminability on February 5, 2008 at 4:03 PM | PERMALINK

O - 901
H - 780

Posted by: yep on February 5, 2008 at 4:07 PM | PERMALINK

Hillary 856
Obama 825

Posted by: tomeck on February 5, 2008 at 4:12 PM | PERMALINK

Guys make sure you check out the article "The Intoxication of Inspiration" on the blogzine SAVAGE POLITICS (not related to Mike Savage) at www.savagepolitics.com. It is awesome......everyone should read it before voting.

Posted by: Elsy on February 5, 2008 at 4:13 PM | PERMALINK

BHO - 1001
HRC - 680

Posted by: goethean on February 5, 2008 at 4:14 PM | PERMALINK

Obama 1200
Hillary 481

Posted by: keith roberts on February 5, 2008 at 4:15 PM | PERMALINK

My extremely sophisticated (and much-maligned) poll analysis suggests the totals will be 821 (Obama) to 865 (Clinton) for a respective post Feb-5 total of 884 to 913 in favor of Clinton.

But I actually think it's going to be worse for Obama. National polls seem to have flattened out short of Obama catching Hillary. Just a hunch.

Posted by: Jeff Alworth on February 5, 2008 at 4:16 PM | PERMALINK

I hope to be very wrong, but I'm guessing the final total will be...

Clinton: 894
Obama: 787

Posted by: PTate in MN on February 5, 2008 at 4:18 PM | PERMALINK

The Clintons 842
Obama 839

But dang I hope Obama rockets to 1000. OTH- Ohio's gonna count after all.

Posted by: td on February 5, 2008 at 4:20 PM | PERMALINK

EDWARDS: 25
Clinton: 815
Obama: 840

Posted by: theorajones on February 5, 2008 at 4:23 PM | PERMALINK

Elsy on February 5, 2008 at 4:13

Okay, I started to read the "awesome" article. I stopped reading when I saw that McCain is extremely liberal. What's in that man's pipe, and can I have some?

Posted by: thersites on February 5, 2008 at 4:25 PM | PERMALINK

H 929
O 752

My apologies if someone else already voted this.

Posted by: don'tknow on February 5, 2008 at 4:27 PM | PERMALINK

1101110001 for Hillary.
1100100000 for Obama.

Posted by: Luther on February 5, 2008 at 4:30 PM | PERMALINK

840 Clinton
840 Obama
1 Jack Bauer

I wasn't sure if this bit of horror from Great Britain made me, as an American, feel better or worse about the world in general.
A fifth of British teenagers believe Sir Winston Churchill was a fictional character, while many think Sherlock Holmes, King Arthur and Eleanor Rigby were real, a survey shows.


Posted by: cowalker on February 5, 2008 at 4:32 PM | PERMALINK

I built all the machines, and I want to keep it interesting. Trust me on this one:

Bill & Hill: 829
Barack: 859

Please send my Lee Press-on-nails asap.

Posted by: Kilkee on February 5, 2008 at 4:37 PM | PERMALINK

CUT AND BORROW VS. TAX AND SPEND

We need to start countering tax and spend hyperbole w/ cut and borrow

Posted by: Ben on February 5, 2008 at 4:39 PM | PERMALINK

Cazart fears this: |

Clinton 920
Obama 761
Posted by: p_lukasiak

Cazart hopes this:|

Obama - 1,000
Clinton - 681
Posted by: Brojo


Cazart thinks this:|

Clinton: 850
Obama :831

Cazart will wait and see.

Posted by: Cazart on February 5, 2008 at 4:40 PM | PERMALINK

Unfortunately, the results will be far from decisive:

Inkblot: 600
Lee Mercer, Jr.: 600
more cowbell: 475
Mike Gravel: 6

Posted by: david in norcal on February 5, 2008 at 4:41 PM | PERMALINK

Obama 849, Clinton 832. Getting tight, gang.

Posted by: Vincent on February 5, 2008 at 4:41 PM | PERMALINK

Obama - 1132
Hillary - 549

Posted by: andrew on February 5, 2008 at 4:48 PM | PERMALINK

Hillary 51.2351%
BO 48.7649%

Posted by: gregor on February 5, 2008 at 4:49 PM | PERMALINK

Prediction: Utterly predictable pro-HRC comments will decline as she is unable to make payroll past Super Tuesday.

Posted by: lifelongdemturninggreen on February 5, 2008 at 4:50 PM | PERMALINK

Obama: 1002
Clinton: 679

Posted by: rusrus on February 5, 2008 at 4:55 PM | PERMALINK

HC-904 BO-773 Others-4

Posted by: K on February 5, 2008 at 4:55 PM | PERMALINK

Somebody make a Hillary T-shirt/poster that looks like the Che one- that would be cool.

Posted by: Swan on February 5, 2008 at 4:55 PM | PERMALINK

HRC 838
BHO 843

http://turcopundit.blogspot.com/

Posted by: bahadir koc on February 5, 2008 at 4:57 PM | PERMALINK

Obama 855
Hillary 826

Posted by: geometric logic on February 5, 2008 at 4:59 PM | PERMALINK

Me Cazart, You Jane

Posted by: thersites on February 5, 2008 at 5:01 PM | PERMALINK

I'm wearing my Che t-shirt to the polls later today.

Posted by: Brojo on February 5, 2008 at 5:08 PM | PERMALINK

Clinton 902
Obama 781

I had a vote in my HS ELD class today: Clinton 8
Obama 7. Sounds about right to me.

Posted by: Percy on February 5, 2008 at 5:12 PM | PERMALINK

They win; we lose.

Posted by: dr sardonicus on February 5, 2008 at 5:13 PM | PERMALINK

I wore my "Stop Wars" t-shirt
http://farm3.static.flickr.com/2329/2229626777_21ba5fb802.jpg

Posted by: enozinho on February 5, 2008 at 5:13 PM | PERMALINK

Can't do the simple math in my head, but I think it'll be Clinton by more than 100.

Excuse me I go throw up now.

...not from the election. I really am sick today. That's why Math brain no worky.

Posted by: anonymous on February 5, 2008 at 5:13 PM | PERMALINK

The final delegate count will depend on a Supreme Court judgment.

Posted by: MobiusKlein on February 5, 2008 at 5:14 PM | PERMALINK

Brojo,

Hasta la victoria siempre. Patria o muerte, venceremos.

As for you who find it appropriate to insult the candidate, and her or his supporters, whom you aren't supporting - lighten up.

Can't we all be thrilled that the democrats have two excellent candidates, either of whom would be a vast improvement over that which we have suffered for the last eight years; and that we actually still have a choice deep into the process for the first time in a long time?

Posted by: Chris Brown on February 5, 2008 at 5:16 PM | PERMALINK

Hillary 853, Obama 828.

Posted by: Adam on February 5, 2008 at 5:17 PM | PERMALINK

Obama - 1000
Clinton - 581
Eleanor Rigby - 100

Posted by: CatLover on February 5, 2008 at 5:31 PM | PERMALINK

HRC-823 BO-858

Posted by: Max Gallop on February 5, 2008 at 5:48 PM | PERMALINK

Hillary 840
Barack 841

How come the girl goes by her first name and the guy his last?

Posted by: TonyT on February 5, 2008 at 5:48 PM | PERMALINK

Clinton 850 Obama 831

Posted by: Boin on February 5, 2008 at 5:52 PM | PERMALINK

Ditka 1679

Obama and Clinton each get one delegate.

Posted by: Shine on February 5, 2008 at 5:57 PM | PERMALINK

How come the girl goes by her first name and the guy his last?

I think it might be all those HILLARY! signs at the rallies.

Posted by: thersites on February 5, 2008 at 5:59 PM | PERMALINK

BHO: 1034
HRC: 647

Posted by: Manfred on February 5, 2008 at 6:37 PM | PERMALINK

Norman Rogers 1200
Jumped Overboard 481

Posted by: thersites on February 5, 2008 at 6:44 PM | PERMALINK

It's 7:02 p.m.

ABC just announced that based on exit polling, Obama wins Georgia.

Posted by: dcnative on February 5, 2008 at 7:01 PM | PERMALINK

Thersites,
I am just crushed that you gave Norman 1200 votes. What were you thinking. How is that going to make Inkblot feel, huh?

You cruel cruel person, you should have given the votes to Inkblot, so that he could win this pool.

Posted by: optical weenie on February 5, 2008 at 7:06 PM | PERMALINK

Optical, get a grip. What sane cat wants to get into a pool?

I'm not the one giving out votes, anyway. The People have Spoken, and they want Norman. (I think it was that Kevin-on-the-roof-of-the-car episode.) Sorry.

Posted by: thersites on February 5, 2008 at 7:11 PM | PERMALINK

I seem to recollect that you were the one that started the rumor about Inkblot driving his Landrover around with Kevin on the roof.

So I see, this has been a conspiracy to get Inkblot off the ticket all along. And it has been you that has led it. What a poooopy head you are.

And now I will go home and put new creases into my tinfoil hat. And then channel bad vibes and karma in your direction.

Posted by: Optical Weenie on February 5, 2008 at 7:14 PM | PERMALINK

Well, take it for what it is worth -- but intrade switched tonight from Clinton being the likely Democratic Presidential nominee to Obama being the likely Democratic Presidential nominee.

http://www.intrade.com/jsp/intrade/contractSearch/

Posted by: ACK on February 5, 2008 at 7:17 PM | PERMALINK

Isn't there supposed to be some rule about guessing without going over Hillary's actual delegate count, Like on The Price Is Right? If so, I'm going with Hillary at 879, just to ice Kevin out of the contest.

Posted by: ferd on February 5, 2008 at 7:21 PM | PERMALINK

Clinton 1081
Obama 600

Posted by: jim on February 5, 2008 at 7:37 PM | PERMALINK

Obama 886
Clinton 795

Posted by: brian on February 5, 2008 at 8:26 PM | PERMALINK

Clinton 820
Obama 861

Posted by: DMI in NYC on February 5, 2008 at 8:47 PM | PERMALINK

I predict Chris Matthews calls it for Obama.

Posted by: B on February 5, 2008 at 11:01 PM | PERMALINK

Kang 840
Kodos 840
Clinton 1 (American Samoa)

Global thermonuclear war ensues.

Posted by: calling all toasters on February 5, 2008 at 11:57 PM | PERMALINK

NBC's Chuck Todd projects 841 Obama, and 837 Clinton.

Super delegates give Clinton about a 70 delegate lead.

Posted by: corpus juris on February 6, 2008 at 12:59 AM | PERMALINK

lerxst wins.

Posted by: Petey on February 6, 2008 at 2:48 AM | PERMALINK
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