Editore"s Note
Tilting at Windmills

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February 5, 2008
By: Kevin Drum

SUPER DUPER TUESDAY....Here are the results so far on the Democratic side of things.

Barack Obama

Hillary Clinton

  1. Georgia (66-32)

  2. Illinois (65-33)

  3. Delaware (53-43)

  4. Alabama (56-42)

  5. North Dakota (61-37)

  6. Kansas (73-27)

  7. Connecticut (51-47)

  8. Minnesota (67-32)

  9. Utah (56-40)

  10. Colorado (66-32)

  11. Idaho (81-17)

  12. Alaska (73-27)

  13. Missouri (49-48)

  1. Tennessee (54-41)

  2. Arkansas (73-24)

  3. Oklahoma (55-31)

  4. New York (57-40)

  5. Massachusetts (56-41)

  6. New Jersey (54-44)

  7. Arizona (51-42)

  8. California (52-42)

And in the all-important Pacific Islands vote, Hillary Clinton handily won the caucus vote in American Samoa, 163-121.

Kevin Drum 8:40 PM Permalink | Trackbacks | Comments (72)

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Comments

Go Patriots!

Posted by: anonymous on February 5, 2008 at 8:42 PM | PERMALINK

This is oversimplifying the story so far. Clinton's going to get a net gain of maybe 15 to 30 delegates out of those three states.

Meanwhile, Obama's going to get a net gain of maybe 80 to 100 out of those two.

Posted by: absdfoj on February 5, 2008 at 8:49 PM | PERMALINK

I am clueless--I picked Obama to win American Samoa...

Posted by: desmoinesdem on February 5, 2008 at 8:57 PM | PERMALINK

And in the all-important Pacific Islands vote, Hillary Clinton handily won the caucus vote in American Samoa, 163-121.

Stick a fork in Obama, he's finished.

Posted by: Old Hat on February 5, 2008 at 8:58 PM | PERMALINK

Meanwhile, Obama's going to get a net gain of maybe 80 to 100 out of those two.

Show me the math

Posted by: ROTFLMLiberalAO on February 5, 2008 at 9:03 PM | PERMALINK

Show me the math

Obama's delegate windfall?

Posted by: handsofaten on February 5, 2008 at 9:09 PM | PERMALINK

Oh, lord, you jokester you...

Posted by: elmo on February 5, 2008 at 9:16 PM | PERMALINK

Thanks handsofaten...
Interesting.

Posted by: ROTFLMLiberalAO on February 5, 2008 at 9:19 PM | PERMALINK

anonymous >"Go Patriots!"

They done did, right down the drain.

Meanwhile the actual real life patriots are voting for sanity.

“Revolutions, before they happen, appear to be impossible and after they occur they appeared to have been inevitable.” - Alexis de Tocqueville

Posted by: daCascadian on February 5, 2008 at 9:24 PM | PERMALINK

NPR called Alabama for Obama.

Oh, and apparently so did CNN.

Posted by: keptsimple on February 5, 2008 at 9:29 PM | PERMALINK

Been looking at the early numbers. news.google.com has a pretty good tracker. It is amazing how much state to state variation I'm seeing:
the extremes:
using alphabetical order Clinton/Obama
Arizona 67/23
Kansas 26/74
Those are hugely different results. Taken alone either one is a landslide.

Posted by: bigTom on February 5, 2008 at 9:37 PM | PERMALINK

Stick a fork in Obama? You gotta be kidding. This night is not going to settle anything.

Posted by: corpus juris on February 5, 2008 at 9:42 PM | PERMALINK

Corpus juris - he was kidding. C'mon ... American Samoa?

Posted by: anonymous on February 5, 2008 at 9:48 PM | PERMALINK

I think Obama must win California tonight. The race will go on after tonight regardless, but if Clinton wins California, it is going to be difficult for Obama to change the dynamic that has developed so far tonight. He needs a breakthrough win to trumpet for the news cycle of the next week. So far, in my opinion, he has failed to get it tonight.

Posted by: Yancey Ward on February 5, 2008 at 9:52 PM | PERMALINK

A good source for delegate count. She's doing well so far, though obviously it is extremely early: http://election.cbsnews.com/campaign2008/d_delegateScorecard.shtml

Posted by: Sheldon on February 5, 2008 at 9:56 PM | PERMALINK

Alright, everyone knows American Samoa is a real place- look it up on Wikipedia or Google if you want.

All in all, I'd say Obama is pretty much smarting right now. That momentum didn't do it.

Posted by: Swan on February 5, 2008 at 9:59 PM | PERMALINK

Frikkin American Samoa. I'm gonna have words with the other delegates when I see them in clinic Friday.

Posted by: Jonathan Dworkin on February 5, 2008 at 10:08 PM | PERMALINK

"All in all, I'd say Obama is pretty much smarting right now."

Why?

What do you think the delegate split is? And why do you think that?

Obama has scored huge victories in big states. Clinton has scored huge victories in small states. And delegates are proportional.

Posted by: dsahoagshdf on February 5, 2008 at 10:10 PM | PERMALINK

Dueling pronunciations of "Missouri" led me to this interesting paper, which is nice haven of fact right now:

http://missourifolkloresociety.truman.edu/Missouri%20Folklore%20Studies/THE%20PRONONCIATION%20OF%20MISSOURI.htm

Posted by: matt on February 5, 2008 at 10:14 PM | PERMALINK

Clinton has scored huge victories in small states.

Who you calling small?

Posted by: New York and Massacheussetts on February 5, 2008 at 10:14 PM | PERMALINK

Kevin: And in the all-important Pacific Islands vote, Hillary Clinton handily won the caucus vote in American Samoa, 163-121.

Not so fast, Mr. Drum. Obama will utlimately win the Pacific islands' vote when Hawaii holds its Democratic Primary Caucus. He's considered a favorite son in the Hawaii.

Posted by: DevilDog on February 5, 2008 at 10:17 PM | PERMALINK

I've just been in touch with a powerful campaign insider who guaranteed that Obama will win California tonight. FWIW.

Posted by: Dilbert on February 5, 2008 at 10:17 PM | PERMALINK

if obama wanted to nail down that critical american samoa caucus, he should have been at the Spam Pancake Meet 'n Greet put on by the good folk at Hormel... hillary was there and i personally saw her wolf down 3 spam burgers w/the works... she deserves her victory!

Posted by: commandante subagua on February 5, 2008 at 10:17 PM | PERMALINK

On the Republican side, states leading or won:

Huckabee: 6
McCain: 6
Romney: 3

Posted by: This could get interesting on February 5, 2008 at 10:24 PM | PERMALINK

I just got back from the caucuses in my hometown and I WAS STUNNED BY THE TURNOUT!!!

I live in a fairly conservative suburb of a major city and the Democratic caucuses were swamped! I had to park about five blocks from the high school where they were held. In 2004, there were maybe 12 cars in the parking lot.

If the Democratic turnout here is any indication of what is going to happen in November, the GOP is going to get kicked to the curb.

Posted by: The Conservative Deflator on February 5, 2008 at 10:28 PM | PERMALINK

Is anyone listening to Mitt's speech right now?

He really sounds like he's on speed.

I'm not being snarky.

Posted by: zeg on February 5, 2008 at 10:35 PM | PERMALINK

I've noticed that Obama is doing really well with the caucus states, and much less well in the primary states. Anyone have insight as to why?

Posted by: john d'oh on February 5, 2008 at 10:36 PM | PERMALINK

I wonder if this means the DC primary will actually mean something? HAHAHA. Yeah right. I'm going to vote for Gravel if he's on the ballot. Or my mom. I like her.

Posted by: Christopher on February 5, 2008 at 10:38 PM | PERMALINK

Is anyone listening to Mitt's speech right now?

Yeah, he's hitting all the retardacan buzz words...

Illegal immigration!

Washington elites!

This is the greatest nation!

Tax cuts!

Posted by: elmo on February 5, 2008 at 10:43 PM | PERMALINK

CNN Exit Polls say that McCain got most of the Republican anti-war vote (almost half, with Romney getting a quarter).

More evidence that people aren't voting issues -- they are voting personalities.

Posted by: JS on February 5, 2008 at 10:44 PM | PERMALINK

No, I meant more along the lines of he sounds like:

Illegalimmigrationwashingtonelitesthisisthegreatestnationtaxcuts!

Posted by: asdgjo on February 5, 2008 at 10:46 PM | PERMALINK

Wow, now Hillary. I never expected her to be so bad at blatantly reading a prepared speech.

Posted by: hdafshog on February 5, 2008 at 10:52 PM | PERMALINK

Ugh, seriously, she sounds like she's reading her book report.

Posted by: asdjog on February 5, 2008 at 10:54 PM | PERMALINK

js --

republicans certainly do. it's like all those folks that voted for bush because he's the guy they'd rather have a beer with, or, even better, hank hill speaking approvingly of one of his fellow arlenites: "He has the haircut of an honest man!" there's just a republican predilection for voting based on arbitrary perceptions that, at least i like to think, is not shared by most dems. i understand the power of the texas governor is eclipsed by that of the lieutenant governor -- always kinda thought that this odd situation arose out of the realization by some legislators in the state's past that texans are most likely to vote the fool with the biggest cowboy hat into the governor's mansion so they better design a system that vests the real power with somebody that has some competence -- just a perception and quite possibly not accurate, but shrub has made me even more cynical than i once thought was possible...

Posted by: commandante subagua on February 5, 2008 at 10:59 PM | PERMALINK

Don't be so obvious player haters, dudes...

Posted by: elmo on February 5, 2008 at 11:00 PM | PERMALINK

Looking at the exit polls from California, Hillary's got a win there by a fairly substantial margin. She has 57% of the female vote (which is 55% of the vote) and Obama only has 51% of the male vote (45% of the total vote). This is going to be the main story of the night, coupled with Jersey and Massachusetts (and probably Missouri). Unfortunately we could be looking at the beginning of the end for Obama. My guess is that women and Latinos killed Obama in California, and thus the nation. God help us with a Hillary/McCain matchup.

Posted by: Jim on February 5, 2008 at 11:03 PM | PERMALINK

women and Latinos killed...

God help us...

Surely we can blame gays, the Red Chinese and fluoridated water as well?

Hillary will have the majority of delegates, but not nearly enough to seal the deal either in reality or in the spin zone.

If Obama gets "crushed" in California (over 65% to Hillary), then I suppose the narrative could shift to her being the presumptive nominee. Otherwise, it ain't over 'til it's over.

Brokered convention anyone?

Posted by: lobbygow on February 5, 2008 at 11:12 PM | PERMALINK

While the exit polls from California need to massaged with some actual vote returns, it doesn't look good for Obama.

This entire night seems like a repeat performance of New Hampshire.

Posted by: Yancey Ward on February 5, 2008 at 11:14 PM | PERMALINK

St louis dispatch calls Missouri for HRC.

Posted by: roreilly on February 5, 2008 at 11:15 PM | PERMALINK

Too bad that Super Tuesday has overshadowed so many important stories coming out about Iraq, like this one, that Iraqi scientists had told the CIA as early as 1995 that Saddam had no WMDs and Bush went ahead with an invasion anyway, and this editorial from a former general who says Iraq is a “war that should never have been fought”.

Posted by: The Conservative Deflator on February 5, 2008 at 11:17 PM | PERMALINK

Thanks Kevin for having the most readable results of anyone out there.

Posted by: Brian on February 5, 2008 at 11:23 PM | PERMALINK

"This entire night seems like a repeat performance of New Hampshire."

That's silly. Obama's won at least half the states, some of them overwhelmingly, including some big ones overwhelmingly.

And MSNBC just stated that their best guess so far in terms of delegates was (something like) 590 Obama and 540 Clinton. I forget the exact numbers, but I'm pretty sure it was 590-599 and 540-549.

Posted by: asdgo on February 5, 2008 at 11:23 PM | PERMALINK

California?

WTF?!

You mean my primary vote actually freaking counts for once?

(Honestly, I don't think either Hillary or McCain could possibly be as horrible a disaster as Romney or Foley Huckabee. - though I'd really rather see Obama win - Hillary or McCain would both be orders of magnitude better than Bush. Really - I don't think ANY of them would be able to undo the damage Bush has done. Not in 4 or 8 years, probably not in 16. It's going to be very difficult to un-fuck this nation, and this world, after Bush.)

Posted by: osama_been_forgotten on February 5, 2008 at 11:23 PM | PERMALINK

They just said it again: 594-546. They also said California is looking like a pretty close split in terms of delegates, so it's unlikely to affect the Obama lead in a significantly negative way.

How is this "like a repeat performance of New Hampshire"?

Posted by: agjogoadsjjoa on February 5, 2008 at 11:24 PM | PERMALINK

There is no God. And we certainly don't need help in a Clinton/McCain matchup- Hillary is terrific (as is Obama) and McCain is proving his weakness tonight.

Posted by: Sean on February 5, 2008 at 11:26 PM | PERMALINK

Without California, Obama has underperformed his expectations for tonight. Remember, he was surging against Clinton coming into the night, and yet he didn't really win any state that he wasn't supposed to win except for the state I live in, Connecticut. He really needed to either bag New Jersey, Massachusetts, or California. At the moment, he doesn't appear to be able win any of them. The story tomorrow, if Obama doesn't take CA, is going to be that Hillary withstood the charge and turned it away. The race would not end tonight, but Obama faces a hard uphill fight with this perception.

Posted by: Yancey Ward on February 5, 2008 at 11:34 PM | PERMALINK

how are you calling Utah for Obama?

Posted by: Jamie Holmes on February 5, 2008 at 11:35 PM | PERMALINK

Yancey, I don't know whether you're spinning or whether you've bought someone else's spin, but saying that Obama has lost because he is only beating Clinton tonight by 50 delegates is, again, silly.

Posted by: adsgoajodgs on February 5, 2008 at 11:39 PM | PERMALINK

Was Obama expected to win Minnesota? That one surprised me, but I must say I didn't track that state too closely over the past few weeks.

Posted by: Dismayed Liberal on February 5, 2008 at 11:46 PM | PERMALINK

ads,

No spin from me. I don't support either candidate. He may win more delegates tonight, but the news tomorrow won't focus on delegate counts- it will focus on the lack of breakthrough wins. If could have won California, I think he could have taken Clinton down- it would have been the big new of the next week, but he failed, and if the absentee ballots in California favor Clinton even more than the exit polls today did, then he will lose California by 10 points.

Look, he is outraising Clinton right now, and that will help him going forward, but by holding Obama off tonight, Clinton will be able to raise more cash going forward, as well. Right now, Clinton has the upper hand, and she did not lose it tonight- that was her victory.

Posted by: Yancey Ward on February 5, 2008 at 11:51 PM | PERMALINK

The media is ALREADY indicating that delegate counts are what's really important, Yancey. The reason they've been talking up state counts is because the delegate counts hadn't become clear yet. But they will be by tomorrow, and SEVERAL people on the station I'm watching (MSNBC) have already said "but the state counts don't matter - delegate counts do - and we're trying to figure those out".

They'll have them (more or less) figured out by tomorrow.

People like Tim Russert, Tom Brokaw, and, I believe, Chris Matthews.

Posted by: agdsdafsg on February 5, 2008 at 11:57 PM | PERMALINK

Right now, Clinton has the upper hand, and she did not lose it tonight- that was her victory.

I'll buy that if one assumes the expectations are set by the silly breathless media.

So Obama doesn't warp the space time continuum. He underachieves.

But, looking at the long term, bigger picture, who is more of an underachiever vs. conventional wisdom (no pun intended)? That award should go to Hillary. You've got to believe that 18 months ago, no on in the Clinton camp could have imagined Obama (or anyone else) in a competitive position at this stage in the process.

Of course, the fact that we could very easily have a non white male president puts both Democratic contenders in the overachiever column in my book. I didn't think the country was ready for it.

Perhaps we should all thank George Bush and Dick Cheney for this gift.

Posted by: lobbygow on February 6, 2008 at 12:02 AM | PERMALINK

I'm not sure if this is true, but I saw somewhere that almost half of the California vote was mailed in.

So: With 14% of the vote counted, Edwards has 10% in California.

Posted by: JS on February 6, 2008 at 12:10 AM | PERMALINK

and the campaign for the Democratic nominee goes on. Hillary supporters can rightfully gloat, but Obama is still the contender. Congrats

Posted by: Boorring on February 6, 2008 at 12:36 AM | PERMALINK

What's going on with Missouri? I thought it was called fairly early for Clinton, but I left the tube for a few minutes and came back to hear what i thought was something from Jim Lehrer about it being up in the air again? Did I hear that correctly?

Posted by: Varecia on February 6, 2008 at 12:38 AM | PERMALINK

Varecia, MSNBC has just called Missouri for Obama. And the AP is apparently retracting their previous call of Missouri for Clinton.

Incidentally, Alaska was just called for Obama as I was typing the above.

Posted by: gjagojo on February 6, 2008 at 12:43 AM | PERMALINK

Missouri was called for Clinton, then "uncalled", then called for Obama.

Posted by: JS on February 6, 2008 at 12:48 AM | PERMALINK

Thanks!!!! I almost thought I was hallucinating...now I can say what I've been wanting to say all day (thanks, Aaron!):

"Don't tell 'MAMA'...but they're voting for OBAMA!!!!"

Posted by: Varecia on February 6, 2008 at 12:51 AM | PERMALINK

"This entire night seems like a repeat performance of New Hampshire."

Oh, please. He won more states and he may have won more delegates. And this is going to be portrayed as a defeat?? The mind boggles...

The media is going to report precisely what happened -- this was a tie.

Posted by: PaulB on February 6, 2008 at 12:51 AM | PERMALINK

and I speak too soon (sorry PaulB). Time and money favor Barack Obama, and Hillary didn't win enough to be comfortable. Very interesting result.

Posted by: Boorring on February 6, 2008 at 12:56 AM | PERMALINK

Missouri has some psychological value for the politicos. Wikipedia says:

The Missouri bellwether is a political phenomenon that notes that the state of Missouri has voted for the winner in every U.S. Presidential election beginning in 1904 except in 1956.

Of course that refers to the general election, not the primaries. It's also interesting, though, that Democratic turnout in Missouri was greater than Republican turnout.

Posted by: JS on February 6, 2008 at 12:56 AM | PERMALINK

I doubt that either of them is hurting for money, Boorring. Obama outraised Clinton in January, but she outraised him in the fourth quarter of last year. I think that organization and GOTV will matter more and neither seems to have a significant edge there, at least on a national level.

Kos thinks that Obama won by just hold Hillary in place, since the calendar favors Obama for the next few contests:

He needs to finish within 200 delegates of Clinton to keep it close, because the rest of the month is tailor made for Obama -- Louisiana primary and Nebraska and Washington caucuses on Saturday, February 9th, Maine caucuses on Sunday February 10, the Beltway Primary on February 12 -- DC, Maryland, and Virginia, and Hawaii and Wisconsin the next Tuesday, February 19. Of those states, only Maine might prove kind to Hillary (though we haven't had any polling since October of last year, when Hillary had a commanding 46-10 lead). The rest -- 563 delegates' worth of contests, will favor Obama heavily.

Damned if I know if he's right; I haven't been paying that close attention to anything after Super Tuesday.

Posted by: PaulB on February 6, 2008 at 1:05 AM | PERMALINK

The Guardian today:

California state officials received more than 3 million votes in absentee ballots by late Monday night, a figure that could account for up to 40% of the turnout.

The laborious process of counting such votes by hand could continue on for days, delaying the official declaration. Up to 25% of the absentee ballots will remain uncounted tonight.


Posted by: JS on February 6, 2008 at 1:15 AM | PERMALINK

The map looks really wiered if you plug in all the contested states, Hillary Wins big in the NE, Obama dominates the south, the heartland and the mountain west, and Hillary wins the South west, the only thing that comes to mind is other than Arkansas (and maybe NM) I can't find a single red state Hillary won that we could take in the general (sorry, AZ will not go Dem if Mccain is running) whereas Obama carried Iowa, Kansas (not a big chance about equal to NM) and Missouri, additionally I think Obama could win or at least make close enough to help downticket some Southern States.

Posted by: Socraticsilence on February 6, 2008 at 1:19 AM | PERMALINK

I'm very happy for the country. I am really heartened by Barack Obama's turnout for the different demographics, it is a changing political dynamic in the favor of this Democratic candidate, transferring to his party.

Posted by: Boorring on February 6, 2008 at 1:31 AM | PERMALINK

Obama just won super tuesday. He won more delegates and more states. That's winning by any barometer. Some of you are going to have to give up the idea that he 'held place'. Hillary was supposed to take 16 states and be ahead 60+ on the delegates. Obama just won 14 states and will likely win have won more delegates.

Most of the Clinton supporters would have LOVED to set the bar that high for Obama last night...

Posted by: soullite on February 6, 2008 at 1:36 AM | PERMALINK

Oh quit spinning soullite. No one buys it. And he's not going to get more delegates if the California spread continues. Obama won states like Alaska, Delaware, Conn, Idaho, North Dakota, and Utah, with total voter participation in the magnitude of 10^4 or less.

Posted by: Bob on February 6, 2008 at 1:40 AM | PERMALINK

"And he's not going to get more delegates if the California spread continues."

MSNBC recently guessed that Obama is going to win the delegate count tonight even ASSUMING the California spread is equal to the BEST-CASE CLAIM of the CLINTON campaign.

Anyway, this is all kind of silly. Tonight was essentially a tie.

Posted by: gadfagoij on February 6, 2008 at 1:45 AM | PERMALINK

Missouri was called for Clinton, then "uncalled", then called for Obama.

That was strange. Apparently, there were problems in St. Louis County.

Posted by: Blue Girl, Red State (aka G.C.) on February 6, 2008 at 1:53 AM | PERMALINK

Democratic turnout in Missouri was greater than Republican turnout.

In my (inner city, deep blue) precinct, Democrats were outvoting Republicans by a margin of 4 or 5 to 1. I predicted a while back that the Democrat who emerged victorious would have more votes than all the Republicans combined. I'm looking for confirmation of either prescience or madness...

(And where is Shortstop? I made it through Super Tuesday without commenting. She didn't think I could do it.)

Posted by: Blue Girl, Red State (aka G.C.) on February 6, 2008 at 2:02 AM | PERMALINK

I wouldnt go by anything MSNBC says. Theyve become the Obama News Network.

Posted by: Jonesy on February 6, 2008 at 4:05 AM | PERMALINK

MSNBC ...the Obama News Network
More of the Clinton hating network, but very pro-McCain. They're a joke: Matthews, Scarborough, Russert, Williams, Carlson.

Posted by: Mike on February 6, 2008 at 12:51 PM | PERMALINK




 

 

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