Editore"s Note
Tilting at Windmills

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March 2, 2008
By: Kevin Drum

IRANIAN BOMB UPDATE....The IAEA, not generally a font of Iran-bashing, has apparently gotten hold of internal documents demonstrating that Iran was actively pursuing nuclear bomb research until about four years ago. Their conclusion isn't quite identical to that of the American NIE released a few months ago, but very close:

The documents suggest that Iran's research on nuclear weapons continued for several months after U.S. intelligence officials say the effort was suspended, the International Atomic Energy Agency's top nuclear security expert told diplomats in Vienna, according to notes taken by a participant.

....In the technical briefing Monday with diplomats from IAEA member states, [Olli] Heinonen offered new details about the Iranian documents, according to notes obtained by The Washington Post. He revealed that the IAEA had collected corroborating evidence, from the intelligence agencies of several countries, that pointed to sophisticated research into some key technologies needed to build and deliver a nuclear bomb.

...."The information is much harder to refute," said David Albright, a former U.N. weapons inspector and president of the Washington-based Institute for Science and International Security. "It seems to point to work on nuclear weapons — even if the program wasn't coherent and even if a decision was never made to actually build a weapon."

Needless to say, Iran denies everything.

Kevin Drum 12:32 PM Permalink | Trackbacks | Comments (19)
 
Comments

VP touts IAEA. Hell freezes over. News at 11.

Posted by: CarlP on March 2, 2008 at 12:46 PM | PERMALINK

Let me guess...they've got an aluminum tube factory and someone ordered a thousand of those remote controlled helicopters from Costco...

Posted by: doug r on March 2, 2008 at 12:49 PM | PERMALINK

*

Posted by: mhr on March 2, 2008 at 1:03 PM | PERMALINK

When Ahmadinejad and the mullahs of Iran get wind of the possibility that Barack Hussein Obama will be the next president of the Great Satan, they will gladly destroy whatever atomic weapons they have and look forward to tea in the White House and ...peace.

That would be terrible...

Posted by: Blue Girl, Red State on March 2, 2008 at 1:12 PM | PERMALINK

Where do you think the "laptop" came from? Could it be from Mossad?

Posted by: blowback on March 2, 2008 at 1:16 PM | PERMALINK

BTW, Commander Codpiece and Darth Cheney must be having a bought of apoplexy:

Ahmadinejad shunned the security measures followed by many other leaders on visits to Baghdad, riding from Baghdad's airport in a civilian-style sedan -- and not an armored military vehicle or helicopter -- to central Baghdad.

An Iraqi military band played the Iranian and Iraqi national anthems as Ahmadinejad and Talabani stood side-by-side at the end of a long red carpet outside the presidential house. Ahmadinejad then walked down the carpet where he was greeted by two Iraqi children with flowers and a long line of Iraqi officials.

Posted by: blowback on March 2, 2008 at 1:26 PM | PERMALINK

Looks like some faction that did not win the debate running up to the NIE decided to leak their evidence .

Posted by: spencer on March 2, 2008 at 1:37 PM | PERMALINK

Their conclusion isn't quite identical to that of the American NIE released a few months ago, but very close

Isn't that the point that should be emphasized?

I remain skeptical of any information re. "Iran's nuclear weapon program" particularly if it can be in any way linked to polities like yours in the U.S. that use lies both little and big as a matter of policy in the promotion of strategic interests. While it's not beyond the bounds of possibilities and from a geopolitical perspective easy to believe that Iran has or has had a nuclear weapons program it's also true that Ayatollah Khamenei, the supreme leader of the Iranian revolution, has issued a fatwah stating that nuclear weapons violate Islamic law; within the context of Iran this is something not lightly violated. Still, Iran should have a clear eye kept on it.

Posted by: snicker-snack on March 2, 2008 at 1:47 PM | PERMALINK

Hi Kevin,

Dr. Jeffrey Lewis, the Arms Control Wonk, says:
"today, Warrick and Lynch have a story based on notes from Heinonens briefing a good bit of reporting suggesting that the IAEA had collected corroborating evidence from the intelligence agencies of several countries (echo chamber warning) and presenting some new information.

Unfortuantely, the example of new information that Warrick and Lynch provide, pertains to documents described studies on modifying Irans Shahab missile to allow it to accommodate a large warhead, which would detonate 600 meters above its target.

This is not new. Those details were first reported in March 2005 by Carla Anne Robbins and later recycled by Robbins in July 2005 and then David Sanger and Bill Broad in the New York Times.

Indeed, that information, as Robbins reported in 2005, was briefed to the IAEA by Bob Joseph.

So, two questions: What was in the 2008 briefing that wasnt in the 2005 briefing? And, what else is in those notes?"

Absent answers to those quaestion, I'd say it was just recycling old sh** as if it were new and smellier sh**. In other words, White House scaremongering tactic No 1.

Regards, C

Posted by: Cernig on March 2, 2008 at 2:59 PM | PERMALINK

Is this the stuff from the laptop brought in by the Khalq terrorist group ?

If so, it's right up there with the Judith Miller report on Iraqi WMDs.

Posted by: Dr WU-the last of the big time thinkers on March 2, 2008 at 4:07 PM | PERMALINK

And looka here, I know it's none of by business but shouldn't the news coming out of Gaza be of some interest?

Where are all the bleeding hearts, neo-cons, State Department feminists, etc? These folks were raring to go for Kosovo, Iraq, Afghanistan, Darfur. But on the Israeli attack on Gazans, not a word. Where is Wesley Clark and his planes? Say Bill Kristol, how about invading Israel? Bleeding hearts, where are you?

Is there some neo-con with the balls of a Winston Churchill calling for a NATO force to bomb back the Israeli's to their own border?

Posted by: Middle East in Flames on March 2, 2008 at 4:19 PM | PERMALINK

WaPo: "Olli Heinonen, the IAEA's deputy director general, was elaborating on a public report released Feb. 22 that questioned whether Iran had come fully clean about its nuclear past."

There is no such statement in the IAEA Report which states: "The Agency has been able to continue to verify the non-diversion of declared nuclear material in Iran. . .The Agency has been able to conclude that answers provided by Iran, in accordance with the work plan, are consistent with its findings . . The one major remaining issue relevant to the nature of Iran’s nuclear programme is the alleged studies on the green salt project, high explosives testing and the missile re-entry vehicle. . .The Agency only received authorization to show some further material to Iran on 15 February 2008. Iran has not yet responded to the Agency’s request of that same date for Iran to view this additional documentation on the alleged studies."

http://www.isis-online.org/publications/iran/IAEA_Iran_Report_22Feb2008.pdf

Needless to say, Iran denies everything.

Needless to say, . . .I won't say it.

Posted by: Don Bacon on March 2, 2008 at 4:47 PM | PERMALINK

Remind me again why any midsized regional power, and any nation of any size that believes it is threatened by Cheney/PNAC, would _not_ have some type of nuclear weapons research effort underway (even if only minimal)? To not do so, after the Iraq invasion, would be a dereliction of fiduciary duty.

Cranky

Posted by: Cranky Observer on March 2, 2008 at 8:19 PM | PERMALINK

sophisticated research into some key technologies needed to build and deliver a nuclear bomb.

Baloney and hogwash. There's nothing difficult about building a nuclear bomb

• The design and production of nuclear weapons in is a far simpler process than it was during the Manhattan Project.
• Indigenous development of nuclear weapons is possible for countries with industrial bases no greater than that of Iraq in 1990. Given a source of fissile material, even terrorist groups could
construct their own nuclear explosive devices.
• At least two types of nuclear weapons can be built and fielded without any kind of yield test, and the possessors could have reasonable confidence in the performance of those devices.
http://www.fas.org/irp/threat/mctl98-2/p2sec05.pdf

You could buy a book:
How to Build a Nuclear Bomb: And Other Weapons of Mass Destruction
http://www.amazon.com/How-Build-Nuclear-Bomb-Destruction/dp/1560256036

Or just follow these simple instructions:
1. First, obtain about 50 pounds (110 kg) of weapons grade Plutonium at your local supplier (see NOTES). A nuclear power plant is not recommended, as large quantities of missing Plutonium tends to make plant engineers unhappy. We suggest that you contact your local terrorist organization or that ACME company where Wile E. Coyote shops. . . .
http://www.ediblebrain.com/fwha/arrarr/bomb.htm


Posted by: Don Bacon on March 2, 2008 at 10:37 PM | PERMALINK

note how the washington Post attributes this to the United Nations when in fact they're only going over the 'evidence' provided by the US and the IAEA has specifically it has "no credible evidence in this regard" and so they do not necessarily endorse any of this

Would you care for some Yellowcake from Niger? Yum yum eat it up, more to come.

My prediction: an Iranian Khadir Hamza is coming next.

Posted by: hass on March 2, 2008 at 10:42 PM | PERMALINK

Somebody should check on recent deposits to Olli Heinonen's bank accounts. Normally Nobel Laureate Dr. ElBaradei is the spokesman for the IAEA as its director, but the US hasn't cottoned to him since he spoke the truth about Operation Iraqi Fiasco. Thus Olli, deputy director of IAEA, enters the picture with his pro-Cheney charges. They'll wangle a war out of this yet.

Posted by: Don Bacon on March 2, 2008 at 11:29 PM | PERMALINK

Look, the Bush/Cheney/Rumsfeld (with Feith and Wolfowitz) gang of crazies never invaded North Korea. (Never mind that the North Korean military have the Dear Leader on a short leash, and are likely to toss him in the garbage heap any day now.)

Why is North Korea safe from the White House Whackos? Because they have a bomb which, even if it's only a squib, can take out an aircraft carrier.

Would the world be a safer place if Iran had nuclear weapons?

Wey-yull, that good part of "the world" which is subject to random stoopid violence from Washington certainly would.

Posted by: David Lloyd-Jones on March 2, 2008 at 11:32 PM | PERMALINK

Needless to say, even Sen. Obama included an Iran is a a threat to US national security during his tlevised campaign stop in Ohio on Saturday. Even though he said he would talk with Iran as president of the new gulag, he would not take military attacks off the table.

Posted by: Brojo on March 3, 2008 at 11:55 AM | PERMALINK

theres no way this could happen to me

Posted by: on April 16, 2008 at 12:15 PM | PERMALINK




 

 
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